Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Previous Version | Current Version | All | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On

Skip product version selection by date and time.   
824
FXUS64 KLUB 230448
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THIS TAF FORECAST. A WEAK
-TSRA OR -SHRA IS POSSIBLE...BUT VERY UNLIKELY...IN THE VICINITY
OF EITHER TERMINAL EARLY WED MORNING LIKELY HAVING MINIMAL
AVIATION IMPACTS. THERE WILL BE A SLIM CHANCE OF TSRA AT KLBB FROM
ABOUT 19 TO 21 UTC...AND A BETTER CHANCE AT KCDS FROM ABOUT 21 TO
05 UTC. TSRA COULD BE STRONG IN THE KCDS AREA. A STRONG LOW-LVL
JET EARLY WED MORNING WILL LEAD TO SOME CHOP IN THE LOWEST 3000 FT OR SO
THROUGH ABOUT 12 UTC. SRLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE
OF A -TSRA OR -SHRA IN THE VICINITY OF KLBB AROUND 10 TO 14 UTC
AND AGAIN FROM ABOUT 19 TO 21 UTC. A BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA IS
EXPECTED AT KCDS AT THE TAIL-END OF THE FORECAST. A STRONG LOW-
LVL JET OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME CHOP IN THE LOWEST 3000 FT OR
SO. SRLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY BECOME
SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KTS AT BOTH TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL SHIFT FROM NEAR ZONAL THIS AFTERNOON TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDNIGHT AS A TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST
PUSHES EASTWARD. INTERESTINGLY...THE TROUGH BECOMES INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THOUGH DRAGS OUT TO A POSITIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS INDICATED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A LEAD WAVE MAY TRIGGER
SOME VIRGA ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERALL...INHERITED FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS
WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION BEING TO EXTEND CHC POPS
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXPLICIT MENTION OF SVR
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. DYNAMICAL FORCING SHOULD BE
RESPECTABLE WITH 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH 2-3 J/KG CAPE.
TORNADO POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS RATHER POOR WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS BEING THE RULE.

OUT WEST...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL COMBINE
WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO CREATE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HAVE
ELECTED TO EXPAND FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND UPGRADED PARMER/LAMB COUNTIES TO RED FLAG
WARNING AS CONFIDENCE THERE IN MEETING THE 3 HOUR DURATION IS
BEST.

LONG TERM...
AFTER CONVECTION WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH EARLY ON THURSDAY MAINLY ONLY HAVING THE EFFECT OF A SLIGHT
LOWERING OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE ON THURSDAY BUT WILL NOT BRING
ANYTHING BUT SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING US BACK TO
THE MORE FAMILIAR DRY...WARM...AND WINDY CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME DIFFLUENCE AND POSSIBLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AT LEAST ON SATURDAY WHEN
APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION. CONVECTION MAY
CLIP THE ROLLING PLAINS IF THIS SYSTEM DOES MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS
MODELS CURRENTLY PROG WITH DEEPLY MIXED AIR WEST OF THE DRYLINE.
HOWEVER...ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
AS FAR WEST AS THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS. FURTHERMORE...GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA DOES INDICATE CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...IN ALL LIKELIHOOD FIRE WEATHER WILL RETURN ON
SATURDAY AT LEAST FOR AREAS NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING DOWN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT 850MB TEMPERATURES JUST
BELOW 0C WHICH COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE. THE LAST TIME
THIS OCCURRED...MODELS WERE FAIRLY ACCURATE WITH THE FREEZE
POTENTIAL THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  84  45  75  44 /  10  10   0   0   0
TULIA         54  85  47  76  47 /   0  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     55  86  49  77  49 /   0  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     56  86  48  79  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       58  87  51  79  53 /   0  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   58  85  51  77  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    57  86  48  79  54 /   0  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  88  58  79  49 /   0  50  40   0   0
SPUR          58  87  54  80  53 /   0  30  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     61  89  60  80  53 /   0  40  40   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ022-028-033-034-039-040.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-027.

&&

$$

33

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.