Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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637
FXUS64 KLUB 281721
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1221 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
OCCURRING AT KLBB AND KPVW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OCCURRING MORE SO AT KCDS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES...AND VEER FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. NORTH WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEYOND 12 KTS SHORTLY AFTER THIS TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF VFR/MVFR FOG NEARING KCDS
FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE COMPUTER
MODELS KEEP IT EAST OF KCDS DUE TO WINDS VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WILL VISIT WEST TEXAS TODAY AS DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW EARLY TODAY AND IT COULD PROVIDE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT BUT SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
MOST PERSISTENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...NORTH OF THE LOW...AND THESE WINDS WILL ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR FOG NEAR
CHILDRESS BY EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE
WINDS HERE WILL ALSO TURN WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP
THE BETTER RISK OF FOG TO THE EAST. THE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL BUT
PLEASANT SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S /THE RECORD HIGH FOR LUBBOCK TODAY IS 90 DEGREES/...WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTHWEST TO MID-50S
SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND FIRE WEATHER.
THE LATEST PROGS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER...CLEARING ALL BUT THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY N-NE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT THESE SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...NOT
AS STRONG AS LAST WEDNESDAY/S FRONT. THIS QUICKER TREND SUPPORTS
ANOTHER DOWNWARD NUDGE IN HIGH TEMPS...WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM MID
70S NW TO UPPER 80S SE. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE FIRE DANGER
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH AN ELEVATED THREAT MAY YET MATERIALIZE ACROSS
THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THAT
FRONT DISSOLVES.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GOOD MOISTURE RETURN ON THOSE E-SE BREEZES
MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 50S MONDAY EVENING. THIS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE BUT THE MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SOME LOW
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THIS TROUGH
ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY
ESTABLISHED...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT SHOT AT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...FOCUSED ON THE ROLLING PLAINS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST
INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT.

A PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE ARE WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
MED-RANGE GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON A WEAK FRONT FOR THURSDAY...BUT IT
SHOULDN/T INFLUENCE THE WEATHER MUCH EITHER WAY. A STRONGER FRONT
IS STILL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...BUT WITH ONLY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY FROPA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN
COULD DEVELOP FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SWERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  74  40  72 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         46  76  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  79  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  82  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  82  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  83  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  85  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     56  89  52  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29

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