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536
FXUS64 KLUB 252040
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
240 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS IS CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING IN THE EAST AND A
CUT OFF LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
LOW WILL DIG INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MID DAY FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. WHILE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK QUITE
SLIM THROUGH 00Z. IN FACT...FCST SOUNDING DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT
MUCH TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN A MODEST DECK OF CLOUDS. WILL
THEREFORE PULL MENTION OF POPS IN SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS WEEKEND ARE
LOOKING DIMMER BUT NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND DIVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT LIFT
WILL OCCUR IN CONNECTION WITH A COLD FRONT IN THE FORM OF
FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE SEVERELY LACKING.
MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE PEAK TIME OF LIFT
BUT WOULD STILL HAVE TO OVERCOME RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. BY THE
TIME BETTER SATURATION OCCURS LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...LIFT HAS MOVED OFF EAST OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE
LACKLUSTER MOISTURE PROFILES...FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE IN THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES BUT WILL PREDOMINATELY FAVOR RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. OVERALL...VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM.

A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION LOOKS LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN TAPPING INTO ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NETHER
REACHES OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT
850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW 0C ANYWHERE FROM THREE TO FIVE
CONSECUTIVE DAYS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE AROUND 1052-1056MB DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL NOT LIKELY BUDGE UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WITH RETURNING TO
LEE TROUGHING NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE MORE AT
ODDS WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING A TROUGH AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AROUND MID WEEK. MOISTURE SPREADING OVER A VERY COLD AIR MASS MAY
BRING SOME SNOW AROUND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY BE TROUBLESOME BUT WILL NOT TRY TO GET CUTE
WITH THE FORECAST. LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A WARM NOSE DEVELOPING AROUND WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  46  16  36  18 /   0  10  20  10   0
TULIA         31  49  20  37  18 /   0  10  20  10   0
PLAINVIEW     33  53  21  38  19 /   0  10  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     33  56  23  39  19 /   0  10  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       34  58  24  39  20 /   0  10  20  10   0
DENVER CITY   33  57  26  40  22 /   0  10  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    33  57  26  39  22 /   0  10  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     37  58  26  39  21 /   0  10  20  10   0
SPUR          35  62  28  41  22 /   0  10  20  10   0
ASPERMONT     38  62  30  40  24 /   0  10  20  20   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/01
440
FXUS64 KLUB 251845
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1245 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS TODAY DOWNWARD GIVEN THE EXPANSIVE NATURE OF
THE HIGH CLOUDINESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
PRESSURES FALL ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. COLD FRONT TO BRING A
WIND SHIFT AROUND 18Z FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TODAY...COMING AROUND TO SW AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THAT BACKING UPPER FLOW
ALREADY PROMOTING FALLING SFC PRESSURES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE
TROUGH. THAT TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY WITH BREEZY SW
WINDS THE RESULT. INCREASE IN THICKNESSES TODAY POINT TO HIGH TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DO
NOT LOOK THICK ENOUGH TO RETARD WARMING MUCH AND TEMPS WILL AT LEAST
BE OFFSET SOME BY A MODEST DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE SW WINDS.
A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE WARMER MAV WILL BE
TODAYS TARGET. WINDS LIKELY TO STAY UP A BIT THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE LAYING DOWN LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWER MOS NUMBERS COMPARED TO THE WARMER RAW MODEL OUTPUT.

LONG TERM...
OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF 2014 SHOULD FAVOR LOWERED HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH AT LEAST TWO
ROBUST COLD FRONTS ON TAP FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...THE SECOND OF
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD ARCTIC CHEER OVER US BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RESPECTABLE UA TROUGH CURRENTLY OCCUPYING THE GREAT BASIN WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRI MORNING WHILE SPREADING
A DEEPER ZONE OF MID/UPPER MOISTURE ATOP THE REGION UNDER STEADY
SWLY FLOW. NWP TREND OVER THE PAST DAY HAS BEEN FOR LESS TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING POTENTIAL AS MORE MODELS ARE EJECTING A LARGER PORTION
OF THE TROUGH SOONER. ECM REMAINS THE BULL OF THE CROWD WHEREAS
REMAINING GUIDANCE HAS GONE TO THE BEARS...SO CONFIDENCE IN A
MEASURABLE PRECIP EVENT LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT IS WANING EVEN
WITH A COLD FROPA AND DECENT FN FORCING DURING THAT TIME.
LATEST SUPERBLEND IS STILL SHOWING A HIGHER POP OUTPUT DUE TO
OLDER/WETTER MODEL CONTRIBUTIONS...BUT THIS WAS MASSAGED TO BETTER
REFLECT THE DRIER TREND AS OF LATE. MAJORITY OF THE 00Z MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE EXCEPTIONALLY POOR FOR ANY PRECIP DUE TO STUBBORN
DRY WEDGING AROUND 700MB...SO WE WOULD NOT OBJECT TO LATER
FORECASTS REMOVING PRECIP ALTOGETHER IF THIS THEME CONTINUES. AS
THE MEAN UA TROF AXIS MIGRATES EAST ON SAT...DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
FROM NW-SE SHOULD RID THE AREA OF LEFTOVER CLOUDS...BUT BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS STILL LOOK ON PAR THANKS TO A CHILLY RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CWA.

A TEMPORARY SHIFT TO DEEP ZONAL FLOW BY SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DIGGING TROF IN THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD EASILY OVERTURN SATURDAY/S
COOL AIR MASS...BUT AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALREADY BE MOBILIZING
SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. GFS/ECM/CMC
ALL HAVE THIS FRONT REACHING OUR AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY...BUT THIS
COULD EASILY END UP ARRIVING SEVERAL HOURS SOONER GIVEN THE USUAL
NWP BIAS SURROUNDING THESE SHALLOW AND DENSE AIR MASSES. BIGGEST
CHANGE THIS GO AROUND WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS EVEN FURTHER FOR
TUE-WED AS MODELS ARE PROGGING A STOUT 1045-1054 MB SURFACE HIGH
TO OUR NORTH. ABUNDANT POST-FRONTAL STRATUS HOWEVER MAY TEMPER
OVERNIGHT TEMPS MORE THAN THE BONE CHILLING TEMPS CURRENTLY
FAVORED BY RAW MODELS. NONETHELESS...THIS COLD WAVE COULD FIT THE
BILL FOR AT LEAST SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SOME POINT TUE-WED WITH
ENHANCED PRECIP POTENTIAL GEARING UP AROUND NEW YEARS DAY AS THE
GREAT BASIN TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER. HOWEVER...USUAL DPROG/DT CONCERNS
THIS FAR OUT ARE BEING GIVEN MORE WEIGHT OVER THE MINOR POPS
CURRENTLY SHOWN BY THE SUPERBLEND...SO WX GRIDS REMAIN EMPTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        57  27  46  18  36 /   0   0  20  20  10
TULIA         56  31  52  22  37 /   0   0  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     56  32  54  23  38 /   0   0  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     54  31  55  25  39 /   0   0  10  20  10
LUBBOCK       57  33  58  26  39 /   0   0  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   54  31  57  28  40 /   0   0  10  20  10
BROWNFIELD    56  31  58  28  39 /   0   0  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     60  35  59  28  39 /   0   0  10  30  10
SPUR          57  33  61  30  41 /   0   0  10  30  10
ASPERMONT     59  35  63  32  40 /   0   0  10  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99
410
FXUS64 KLUB 251729
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1129 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
PRESSURES FALL ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. COLD FRONT TO BRING A
WIND SHIFT AROUND 18Z FRIDAY.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TODAY...COMING AROUND TO SW AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THAT BACKING UPPER FLOW
ALREADY PROMOTING FALLING SFC PRESSURES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE
TROUGH. THAT TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY WITH BREEZY SW
WINDS THE RESULT. INCREASE IN THICKNESSES TODAY POINT TO HIGH TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DO
NOT LOOK THICK ENOUGH TO RETARD WARMING MUCH AND TEMPS WILL AT LEAST
BE OFFSET SOME BY A MODEST DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE SW WINDS.
A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE WARMER MAV WILL BE
TODAYS TARGET. WINDS LIKELY TO STAY UP A BIT THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE LAYING DOWN LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWER MOS NUMBERS COMPARED TO THE WARMER RAW MODEL OUTPUT.

LONG TERM...
OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF 2014 SHOULD FAVOR LOWERED HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH AT LEAST TWO
ROBUST COLD FRONTS ON TAP FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...THE SECOND OF
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD ARCTIC CHEER OVER US BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RESPECTABLE UA TROUGH CURRENTLY OCCUPYING THE GREAT BASIN WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRI MORNING WHILE SPREADING
A DEEPER ZONE OF MID/UPPER MOISTURE ATOP THE REGION UNDER STEADY
SWLY FLOW. NWP TREND OVER THE PAST DAY HAS BEEN FOR LESS TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING POTENTIAL AS MORE MODELS ARE EJECTING A LARGER PORTION
OF THE TROUGH SOONER. ECM REMAINS THE BULL OF THE CROWD WHEREAS
REMAINING GUIDANCE HAS GONE TO THE BEARS...SO CONFIDENCE IN A
MEASURABLE PRECIP EVENT LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT IS WANING EVEN
WITH A COLD FROPA AND DECENT FN FORCING DURING THAT TIME.
LATEST SUPERBLEND IS STILL SHOWING A HIGHER POP OUTPUT DUE TO
OLDER/WETTER MODEL CONTRIBUTIONS...BUT THIS WAS MASSAGED TO BETTER
REFLECT THE DRIER TREND AS OF LATE. MAJORITY OF THE 00Z MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE EXCEPTIONALLY POOR FOR ANY PRECIP DUE TO STUBBORN
DRY WEDGING AROUND 700MB...SO WE WOULD NOT OBJECT TO LATER
FORECASTS REMOVING PRECIP ALTOGETHER IF THIS THEME CONTINUES. AS
THE MEAN UA TROF AXIS MIGRATES EAST ON SAT...DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
FROM NW-SE SHOULD RID THE AREA OF LEFTOVER CLOUDS...BUT BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS STILL LOOK ON PAR THANKS TO A CHILLY RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CWA.

A TEMPORARY SHIFT TO DEEP ZONAL FLOW BY SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DIGGING TROF IN THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD EASILY OVERTURN SATURDAY/S
COOL AIR MASS...BUT AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALREADY BE MOBILIZING
SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. GFS/ECM/CMC
ALL HAVE THIS FRONT REACHING OUR AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY...BUT THIS
COULD EASILY END UP ARRIVING SEVERAL HOURS SOONER GIVEN THE USUAL
NWP BIAS SURROUNDING THESE SHALLOW AND DENSE AIR MASSES. BIGGEST
CHANGE THIS GO AROUND WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS EVEN FURTHER FOR
TUE-WED AS MODELS ARE PROGGING A STOUT 1045-1054 MB SURFACE HIGH
TO OUR NORTH. ABUNDANT POST-FRONTAL STRATUS HOWEVER MAY TEMPER
OVERNIGHT TEMPS MORE THAN THE BONE CHILLING TEMPS CURRENTLY
FAVORED BY RAW MODELS. NONETHELESS...THIS COLD WAVE COULD FIT THE
BILL FOR AT LEAST SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SOME POINT TUE-WED WITH
ENHANCED PRECIP POTENTIAL GEARING UP AROUND NEW YEARS DAY AS THE
GREAT BASIN TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER. HOWEVER...USUAL DPROG/DT CONCERNS
THIS FAR OUT ARE BEING GIVEN MORE WEIGHT OVER THE MINOR POPS
CURRENTLY SHOWN BY THE SUPERBLEND...SO WX GRIDS REMAIN EMPTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  27  46  18  36 /   0   0  20  20  10
TULIA         61  31  52  22  37 /   0   0  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     61  32  54  23  38 /   0   0  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     60  31  55  25  39 /   0   0  10  20  10
LUBBOCK       60  33  58  26  39 /   0   0  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   60  31  57  28  40 /   0   0  10  20  10
BROWNFIELD    60  31  58  28  39 /   0   0  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     61  35  59  28  39 /   0   0  10  30  10
SPUR          61  33  61  30  41 /   0   0  10  30  10
ASPERMONT     62  35  63  32  40 /   0   0  10  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
898
FXUS64 KLUB 251124
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
524 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KTS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS ERN NM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TODAY...COMING AROUND TO SW AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THAT BACKING UPPER FLOW
ALREADY PROMOTING FALLING SFC PRESSURES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE
TROUGH. THAT TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY WITH BREEZY SW
WINDS THE RESULT. INCREASE IN THICKNESSES TODAY POINT TO HIGH TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DO
NOT LOOK THICK ENOUGH TO RETARD WARMING MUCH AND TEMPS WILL AT LEAST
BE OFFSET SOME BY A MODEST DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE SW WINDS.
A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE WARMER MAV WILL BE
TODAYS TARGET. WINDS LIKELY TO STAY UP A BIT THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE LAYING DOWN LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWER MOS NUMBERS COMPARED TO THE WARMER RAW MODEL OUTPUT.

LONG TERM...
OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF 2014 SHOULD FAVOR LOWERED HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH AT LEAST TWO
ROBUST COLD FRONTS ON TAP FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...THE SECOND OF
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD ARCTIC CHEER OVER US BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RESPECTABLE UA TROUGH CURRENTLY OCCUPYING THE GREAT BASIN WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRI MORNING WHILE SPREADING
A DEEPER ZONE OF MID/UPPER MOISTURE ATOP THE REGION UNDER STEADY
SWLY FLOW. NWP TREND OVER THE PAST DAY HAS BEEN FOR LESS TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING POTENTIAL AS MORE MODELS ARE EJECTING A LARGER PORTION
OF THE TROUGH SOONER. ECM REMAINS THE BULL OF THE CROWD WHEREAS
REMAINING GUIDANCE HAS GONE TO THE BEARS...SO CONFIDENCE IN A
MEASURABLE PRECIP EVENT LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT IS WANING EVEN
WITH A COLD FROPA AND DECENT FN FORCING DURING THAT TIME.
LATEST SUPERBLEND IS STILL SHOWING A HIGHER POP OUTPUT DUE TO
OLDER/WETTER MODEL CONTRIBUTIONS...BUT THIS WAS MASSAGED TO BETTER
REFLECT THE DRIER TREND AS OF LATE. MAJORITY OF THE 00Z MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE EXCEPTIONALLY POOR FOR ANY PRECIP DUE TO STUBBORN
DRY WEDGING AROUND 700MB...SO WE WOULD NOT OBJECT TO LATER
FORECASTS REMOVING PRECIP ALTOGETHER IF THIS THEME CONTINUES. AS
THE MEAN UA TROF AXIS MIGRATES EAST ON SAT...DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
FROM NW-SE SHOULD RID THE AREA OF LEFTOVER CLOUDS...BUT BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS STILL LOOK ON PAR THANKS TO A CHILLY RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CWA.

A TEMPORARY SHIFT TO DEEP ZONAL FLOW BY SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DIGGING TROF IN THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD EASILY OVERTURN SATURDAY/S
COOL AIR MASS...BUT AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALREADY BE MOBILIZING
SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. GFS/ECM/CMC
ALL HAVE THIS FRONT REACHING OUR AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY...BUT THIS
COULD EASILY END UP ARRIVING SEVERAL HOURS SOONER GIVEN THE USUAL
NWP BIAS SURROUNDING THESE SHALLOW AND DENSE AIR MASSES. BIGGEST
CHANGE THIS GO AROUND WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS EVEN FURTHER FOR
TUE-WED AS MODELS ARE PROGGING A STOUT 1045-1054 MB SURFACE HIGH
TO OUR NORTH. ABUNDANT POST-FRONTAL STRATUS HOWEVER MAY TEMPER
OVERNIGHT TEMPS MORE THAN THE BONE CHILLING TEMPS CURRENTLY
FAVORED BY RAW MODELS. NONETHELESS...THIS COLD WAVE COULD FIT THE
BILL FOR AT LEAST SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SOME POINT TUE-WED WITH
ENHANCED PRECIP POTENTIAL GEARING UP AROUND NEW YEARS DAY AS THE
GREAT BASIN TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER. HOWEVER...USUAL DPROG/DT CONCERNS
THIS FAR OUT ARE BEING GIVEN MORE WEIGHT OVER THE MINOR POPS
CURRENTLY SHOWN BY THE SUPERBLEND...SO WX GRIDS REMAIN EMPTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  27  46  18  36 /   0   0  20  20  10
TULIA         61  31  52  22  37 /   0   0  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     61  32  54  23  38 /   0   0  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     60  31  55  25  39 /   0   0  10  20  10
LUBBOCK       60  33  58  26  39 /   0   0  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   60  31  57  28  40 /   0   0  10  20  10
BROWNFIELD    60  31  58  28  39 /   0   0  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     61  35  59  28  39 /   0   0  10  30  10
SPUR          61  33  61  30  41 /   0   0  10  30  10
ASPERMONT     62  35  63  32  40 /   0   0  10  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
807
FXUS64 KLUB 250924
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
324 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TODAY...COMING AROUND TO SW AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THAT BACKING UPPER FLOW
ALREADY PROMOTING FALLING SFC PRESSURES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE
TROUGH. THAT TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY WITH BREEZY SW
WINDS THE RESULT. INCREASE IN THICKNESSES TODAY POINT TO HIGH TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DO
NOT LOOK THICK ENOUGH TO RETARD WARMING MUCH AND TEMPS WILL AT LEAST
BE OFFSET SOME BY A MODEST DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE SW WINDS.
A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE WARMER MAV WILL BE
TODAYS TARGET. WINDS LIKELY TO STAY UP A BIT THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE LAYING DOWN LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWER MOS NUMBERS COMPARED TO THE WARMER RAW MODEL OUTPUT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF 2014 SHOULD FAVOR LOWERED HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH AT LEAST TWO
ROBUST COLD FRONTS ON TAP FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...THE SECOND OF
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD ARCTIC CHEER OVER US BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RESPECTABLE UA TROUGH CURRENTLY OCCUPYING THE GREAT BASIN WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRI MORNING WHILE SPREADING
A DEEPER ZONE OF MID/UPPER MOISTURE ATOP THE REGION UNDER STEADY
SWLY FLOW. NWP TREND OVER THE PAST DAY HAS BEEN FOR LESS TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING POTENTIAL AS MORE MODELS ARE EJECTING A LARGER PORTION
OF THE TROUGH SOONER. ECM REMAINS THE BULL OF THE CROWD WHEREAS
REMAINING GUIDANCE HAS GONE TO THE BEARS...SO CONFIDENCE IN A
MEASURABLE PRECIP EVENT LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT IS WANING EVEN
WITH A COLD FROPA AND DECENT FN FORCING DURING THAT TIME.
LATEST SUPERBLEND IS STILL SHOWING A HIGHER POP OUTPUT DUE TO
OLDER/WETTER MODEL CONTRIBUTIONS...BUT THIS WAS MASSAGED TO BETTER
REFLECT THE DRIER TREND AS OF LATE. MAJORITY OF THE 00Z MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE EXCEPTIONALLY POOR FOR ANY PRECIP DUE TO STUBBORN
DRY WEDGING AROUND 700MB...SO WE WOULD NOT OBJECT TO LATER
FORECASTS REMOVING PRECIP ALTOGETHER IF THIS THEME CONTINUES. AS
THE MEAN UA TROF AXIS MIGRATES EAST ON SAT...DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
FROM NW-SE SHOULD RID THE AREA OF LEFTOVER CLOUDS...BUT BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS STILL LOOK ON PAR THANKS TO A CHILLY RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CWA.

A TEMPORARY SHIFT TO DEEP ZONAL FLOW BY SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DIGGING TROF IN THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD EASILY OVERTURN SATURDAY/S
COOL AIR MASS...BUT AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALREADY BE MOBILIZING
SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. GFS/ECM/CMC
ALL HAVE THIS FRONT REACHING OUR AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY...BUT THIS
COULD EASILY END UP ARRIVING SEVERAL HOURS SOONER GIVEN THE USUAL
NWP BIAS SURROUNDING THESE SHALLOW AND DENSE AIR MASSES. BIGGEST
CHANGE THIS GO AROUND WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS EVEN FURTHER FOR
TUE-WED AS MODELS ARE PROGGING A STOUT 1045-1054 MB SURFACE HIGH
TO OUR NORTH. ABUNDANT POST-FRONTAL STRATUS HOWEVER MAY TEMPER
OVERNIGHT TEMPS MORE THAN THE BONE CHILLING TEMPS CURRENTLY
FAVORED BY RAW MODELS. NONETHELESS...THIS COLD WAVE COULD FIT THE
BILL FOR AT LEAST SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SOME POINT TUE-WED WITH
ENHANCED PRECIP POTENTIAL GEARING UP AROUND NEW YEARS DAY AS THE
GREAT BASIN TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER. HOWEVER...USUAL DPROG/DT CONCERNS
THIS FAR OUT ARE BEING GIVEN MORE WEIGHT OVER THE MINOR POPS
CURRENTLY SHOWN BY THE SUPERBLEND...SO WX GRIDS REMAIN EMPTY.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EGGNOG ADVISORY FOR ALL TX ZONES UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
&&

$$

14/93
136
FXUS64 KLUB 250540
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1140 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.AVIATION...
S/SWLY WINDS WILL INCR AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE THU MORNG.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLBB...KPVW AND KCDS
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLBB...KPVW AND KCDS TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. JH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MAKING ITS WAY TO SRN UTAH BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE UL FLOW FROM NW TO SW
AND TRIGGER DEEPENING OF TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST.  AFTER A
MODERATELY CHILLY NIGHT...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING INCREASING WINDS ON CHRISTMAS DAY.  CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THICKNESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS JUST A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.  IN TURN...THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
WINDS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND.  ALL IN ALL...T`WILL BE A GOOD
DAY TO WATCH ALL THE KIDS TO TRY OUT THEIR NEW ACQUISITIONS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD AND MUNCH DOWN ON SOME GOOD VITTLES WITH THE FAMILY.

MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM WFO LUBBOCK.

LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EXTENDED AS MODELS AGREED ON A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS CHRISTMAS NIGHT OPENING UP INTO A
POSITIVE TILTED WAVE AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL COUPLE WITH A
COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD TO CREATE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PROFILES INDICATE MOISTENING
FROM THE TOP DOWN BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AS INITIAL LIFT
BEGINS TO EMERGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES. ENERGY HANGING BACK IN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY PROLONG PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH THE EVENT. SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A WARM
NOSE INITIALLY THOUGH EXPECT PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO SNOW AS
COLUMN COOLS TO SATURATION. IF VERY DRY MID LEVELS REMAIN IN PLACE
AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS THEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
COULD DOMINATE FOR THE EVENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
HAVE LEFT FCST FAIRLY SIMPLE AT THE MOMENT WITH SNOW RULING THE
P-TYPE ON THE CAPROCK WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. FOR TIMING PURPOSES WITH THE FRONT FRI WENT ALONG
WITH THE FASTER ECMWF WHICH DESPITE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A
SHALLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE DAY.
THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRI. SAT WILL REMAIN COLD AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES
OVERHEAD AND CLOUD COVER SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST. SUNDAY WILL BE
A TRANSITION DAY AS FULL MERIDIONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. SETTING UP A PATTERN
FOR DEEP ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE
YEAR. EXPECT COLD AIR TO ARRIVE EARLIER THAN MOST MED RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST ON MON WITH HIGHS MOST LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
40S. SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS COULD THEN EXIST POSSIBLE INTO THE
NEW YEAR AS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES. ITS TOO EARLY TO GET TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT LIGHT PRECIP WITH WARM AIR AND POTENTIAL PAC
MOISTURE OVERRIDING THE COLD DOME BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP
IN MIND AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT YEAR.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  58  30  42  17 /   0   0   0  10  20
TULIA         28  58  35  43  20 /   0   0   0  10  20
PLAINVIEW     29  58  35  50  23 /   0   0   0  10  20
LEVELLAND     28  58  33  57  23 /   0   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       30  57  35  57  25 /   0   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   27  59  33  61  26 /   0   0   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    29  58  33  61  26 /   0   0   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     31  60  39  55  28 /   0   0   0   0  30
SPUR          31  59  39  59  28 /   0   0   0  10  30
ASPERMONT     33  61  39  63  30 /   0   0   0  10  30
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

02
921
FXUS64 KLUB 250024
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
624 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLBB...KPVW AND KCDS TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MAKING ITS WAY TO SRN UTAH BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE UL FLOW FROM NW TO SW
AND TRIGGER DEEPENING OF TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST.  AFTER A
MODERATELY CHILLY NIGHT...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING INCREASING WINDS ON CHRISTMAS DAY.  CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THICKNESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS JUST A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.  IN TURN...THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
WINDS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND.  ALL IN ALL...T`WILL BE A GOOD
DAY TO WATCH ALL THE KIDS TO TRY OUT THEIR NEW ACQUISITIONS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD AND MUNCH DOWN ON SOME GOOD VITTLES WITH THE FAMILY.

MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM WFO LUBBOCK.

LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EXTENDED AS MODELS AGREED ON A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS CHRISTMAS NIGHT OPENING UP INTO A
POSITIVE TILTED WAVE AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL COUPLE WITH A
COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD TO CREATE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PROFILES INDICATE MOISTENING
FROM THE TOP DOWN BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AS INITIAL LIFT
BEGINS TO EMERGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES. ENERGY HANGING BACK IN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY PROLONG PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH THE EVENT. SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A WARM
NOSE INITIALLY THOUGH EXPECT PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO SNOW AS
COLUMN COOLS TO SATURATION. IF VERY DRY MID LEVELS REMAIN IN PLACE
AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS THEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
COULD DOMINATE FOR THE EVENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
HAVE LEFT FCST FAIRLY SIMPLE AT THE MOMENT WITH SNOW RULING THE
P-TYPE ON THE CAPROCK WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. FOR TIMING PURPOSES WITH THE FRONT FRI WENT ALONG
WITH THE FASTER ECMWF WHICH DESPITE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A
SHALLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE DAY.
THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRI. SAT WILL REMAIN COLD AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES
OVERHEAD AND CLOUD COVER SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST. SUNDAY WILL BE
A TRANSITION DAY AS FULL MERIDIONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. SETTING UP A PATTERN
FOR DEEP ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE
YEAR. EXPECT COLD AIR TO ARRIVE EARLIER THAN MOST MED RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST ON MON WITH HIGHS MOST LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
40S. SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS COULD THEN EXIST POSSIBLE INTO THE
NEW YEAR AS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES. ITS TOO EARLY TO GET TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT LIGHT PRECIP WITH WARM AIR AND POTENTIAL PAC
MOISTURE OVERRIDING THE COLD DOME BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP
IN MIND AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT YEAR.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        23  58  30  42  17 /   0   0   0  10  20
TULIA         27  58  35  43  20 /   0   0   0  10  20
PLAINVIEW     28  58  35  50  23 /   0   0   0  10  20
LEVELLAND     27  58  33  57  23 /   0   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       29  57  35  57  25 /   0   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   26  59  33  61  26 /   0   0   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    28  58  33  61  26 /   0   0   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     30  60  39  55  28 /   0   0   0   0  30
SPUR          30  59  39  59  28 /   0   0   0  10  30
ASPERMONT     32  61  39  63  30 /   0   0   0  10  30
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

02
183
FXUS64 KLUB 242150
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
350 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MAKING ITS WAY TO SRN UTAH BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE UL FLOW FROM NW TO SW
AND TRIGGER DEEPENING OF TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST.  AFTER A
MODERATELY CHILLY NIGHT...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING INCREASING WINDS ON CHRISTMAS DAY.  CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THICKNESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS JUST A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.  IN TURN...THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
WINDS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND.  ALL IN ALL...T`WILL BE A GOOD
DAY TO WATCH ALL THE KIDS TO TRY OUT THEIR NEW ACQUISITIONS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD AND MUNCH DOWN ON SOME GOOD VITTLES WITH THE FAMILY.

MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM WFO LUBBOCK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EXTENDED AS MODELS AGREED ON A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS CHRISTMAS NIGHT OPENING UP INTO A
POSITIVE TILTED WAVE AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL COUPLE WITH A
COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD TO CREATE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PROFILES INDICATE MOISTENING
FROM THE TOP DOWN BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AS INITIAL LIFT
BEGINS TO EMERGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES. ENERGY HANGING BACK IN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY PROLONG PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH THE EVENT. SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A WARM
NOSE INITIALLY THOUGH EXPECT PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO SNOW AS
COLUMN COOLS TO SATURATION. IF VERY DRY MID LEVELS REMAIN IN PLACE
AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS THEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
COULD DOMINATE FOR THE EVENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
HAVE LEFT FCST FAIRLY SIMPLE AT THE MOMENT WITH SNOW RULING THE
P-TYPE ON THE CAPROCK WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. FOR TIMING PURPOSES WITH THE FRONT FRI WENT ALONG
WITH THE FASTER ECMWF WHICH DESPITE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A
SHALLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE DAY.
THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRI. SAT WILL REMAIN COLD AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES
OVERHEAD AND CLOUD COVER SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST. SUNDAY WILL BE
A TRANSITION DAY AS FULL MERIDIONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. SETTING UP A PATTERN
FOR DEEP ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE
YEAR. EXPECT COLD AIR TO ARRIVE EARLIER THAN MOST MED RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST ON MON WITH HIGHS MOST LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
40S. SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS COULD THEN EXIST POSSIBLE INTO THE
NEW YEAR AS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES. ITS TOO EARLY TO GET TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT LIGHT PRECIP WITH WARM AIR AND POTENTIAL PAC
MOISTURE OVERRIDING THE COLD DOME BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP
IN MIND AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        23  58  30  42  17 /   0   0   0  10  20
TULIA         27  58  35  43  20 /   0   0   0  10  20
PLAINVIEW     28  58  35  50  23 /   0   0   0  10  20
LEVELLAND     27  58  33  57  23 /   0   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       29  57  35  57  25 /   0   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   26  59  33  61  26 /   0   0   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    28  58  33  61  26 /   0   0   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     30  60  39  55  28 /   0   0   0   0  30
SPUR          30  59  39  59  28 /   0   0   0  10  30
ASPERMONT     32  61  39  63  30 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/24
216
FXUS64 KLUB 241729
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1129 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
BCMG QUITE BREEZY /SWRLY/ BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER FLOW TO BACK FROM NORTH TO WEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SFC
FLOW DOING THE SAME BUT ABOUT TWELVE HOURS FASTER. COOL AIR TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT FCST HIGH TEMPS A BIT OF A
BALANCING ACT. WILL SEE FAIRLY SHARP THICKNESS INCREASES COMPARED TO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...INCREASED
INSOLATION...AND A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT ON THE CAPROCK BY MID
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE COUNTERED BY THE COLDER START TO THE DAY
AND NEARLY NEUTRAL 24-HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE AT 850 MB. RESULT
SHOULD BE HIGHS NEAR THOSE OF YESTERDAY OFF THE CAPROCK BUT ABOUT
FOUR TO NINE DEGREES WARMER ON THE CAPROCK. FOR BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND LOOK REASONABLE.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN. 00Z
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC AIR WILL EXERT MORE
PRESENCE OVER THE ENTIRE GREAT PLAINS FOR THE START OF THE FINAL
WEEK OF 2014...PERHAPS LINGERING THROUGH NEW YEARS DAY. BEFORE
THIS COLD SURGE ARRIVES...WE/RE LEFT SIFTING THROUGH THE DETAILS
OF POSITIVE-TILT TROUGHINESS OVER THE REGION FOR LATE FRI INTO
THE WEEKEND. MILD AND BREEZY SWLY WINDS ON CHRISTMAS ARE STILL ON
TRACK TO TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON FRI. DID NUDGE MAX
TEMPS UP ON FRI AS THIS FROPA HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN RECENT DAYS.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE RETURN TO UNSETTLED WX AS AN UPPER
TROUGH /STILL OFFSHORE OF NRN CALIFORNIA ATTM/ SHARPENS AND CLOSES
OFF IN THE FOUR CORNERS. PHASING DETAILS OF THIS WAVE WITH
STRONGER NRN STREAM ENERGY ARE AT LEAST PARTIALLY TO BLAME FOR
THE DISPARITY OF QPF AMONG MODELS /GFS EJECTS ENERGY THE FASTEST/
.BUT THE PATTERN ALONE SUGGESTS A WINDOW FOR TOP-DOWN MOISTENING
TO INTERACT WITH ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT PROGGED TO
LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA FRI NIGHT. KEPT POPS JUST BELOW CHANCE
LEVELS AS THE DEGREE OF TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS STILL A HUGE WILD
CARD 2.5 DAYS OUT. THE NAM AND ECM ARE LEADING THE QPF PACK VERSUS
THE BONE-DRY GFS AND CMC. THERMAL PROFILES ARE SHAPING UP TRICKY
WITH ALL PRECIP PHASES POSSIBLE INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN...BUT
WE/VE KEPT WX GRIDS SIMPLIFIED FOR NOW WITH JUST RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
A STUBBORN WARM NOSE ATOP THE FRONTAL INVERSION COULD GARNER A THIN
GLAZE OF ICE AS IS CURRENTLY SHOWCASED IN WPC/S WWD...BUT THESE
FACTORS ARE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT THIS FAR OUT UNTIL BETTER
MODEL RUN CONTINUITY EMERGES /FINGERS CROSSED/.

GFS AND ECM DO LINGER SOME TROUGH ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH SHOWN TO DIG INTO NRN CHIHUAHUA BY SAT...BUT THE BRUNT OF
THE LIFT LOCALLY LOOKS TO BE OVER WITH BY THIS TIME AS THE MAIN
PVA AND DEEPER SATURATION SHIFT DOWNSTREAM. A BRIEF ROUND OF
MILDER TEMPS ON SUN UNDER ZONAL FLOW STILL LOOKS TO CRUMBLE APART
SOMETIME MON OR TUE AS AN ARCTIC FRONT PLUNGES THROUGH MUCH OF
WEST TX. WITH OUR REGION PROGGED TO SIT UNDER WSW FLOW DOWNSTREAM
OF AN ELONGATING TROUGH THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING MAY ONCE AGAIN UNFOLD AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF STEADY FN
FORCING ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL LAYER FOR WINTRY PRECIP. STILL
TOO EARLY AND UNCERTAIN TO PAINT POPS IN THE GRIDS...BUT PATTERN
RECOGNITION OF THESE ARCTIC FROPAS UNDER SWLY FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY
WARRANT AT LEAST A FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  26  60  30  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         47  25  62  34  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     47  26  62  35  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     48  27  62  35  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       48  28  63  36  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   48  27  63  35  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    48  26  63  35  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     51  27  64  39  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          50  27  63  37  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     51  29  64  39  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
065
FXUS64 KLUB 241116
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
516 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY
FROM WEST TEXAS. NORTHWEST WINDS AOA 12 KTS THIS MORNING WILL BACK
TO WEST THIS AFTN THEN SOUTH TO SW THIS EVENING...DECREASING IN
SPEED WITH TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER FLOW TO BACK FROM NORTH TO WEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SFC
FLOW DOING THE SAME BUT ABOUT TWELVE HOURS FASTER. COOL AIR TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT FCST HIGH TEMPS A BIT OF A
BALANCING ACT. WILL SEE FAIRLY SHARP THICKNESS INCREASES COMPARED TO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...INCREASED
INSOLATION...AND A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT ON THE CAPROCK BY MID
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE COUNTERED BY THE COLDER START TO THE DAY
AND NEARLY NEUTRAL 24-HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE AT 850 MB. RESULT
SHOULD BE HIGHS NEAR THOSE OF YESTERDAY OFF THE CAPROCK BUT ABOUT
FOUR TO NINE DEGREES WARMER ON THE CAPROCK. FOR BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND LOOK REASONABLE.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN. 00Z
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC AIR WILL EXERT MORE
PRESENCE OVER THE ENTIRE GREAT PLAINS FOR THE START OF THE FINAL
WEEK OF 2014...PERHAPS LINGERING THROUGH NEW YEARS DAY. BEFORE
THIS COLD SURGE ARRIVES...WE/RE LEFT SIFTING THROUGH THE DETAILS
OF POSITIVE-TILT TROUGHINESS OVER THE REGION FOR LATE FRI INTO
THE WEEKEND. MILD AND BREEZY SWLY WINDS ON CHRISTMAS ARE STILL ON
TRACK TO TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON FRI. DID NUDGE MAX
TEMPS UP ON FRI AS THIS FROPA HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN RECENT DAYS.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE RETURN TO UNSETTLED WX AS AN UPPER
TROUGH /STILL OFFSHORE OF NRN CALIFORNIA ATTM/ SHARPENS AND CLOSES
OFF IN THE FOUR CORNERS. PHASING DETAILS OF THIS WAVE WITH
STRONGER NRN STREAM ENERGY ARE AT LEAST PARTIALLY TO BLAME FOR
THE DISPARITY OF QPF AMONG MODELS /GFS EJECTS ENERGY THE FASTEST/
..BUT THE PATTERN ALONE SUGGESTS A WINDOW FOR TOP-DOWN MOISTENING
TO INTERACT WITH ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT PROGGED TO
LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA FRI NIGHT. KEPT POPS JUST BELOW CHANCE
LEVELS AS THE DEGREE OF TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS STILL A HUGE WILD
CARD 2.5 DAYS OUT. THE NAM AND ECM ARE LEADING THE QPF PACK VERSUS
THE BONE-DRY GFS AND CMC. THERMAL PROFILES ARE SHAPING UP TRICKY
WITH ALL PRECIP PHASES POSSIBLE INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN...BUT
WE/VE KEPT WX GRIDS SIMPLIFIED FOR NOW WITH JUST RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
A STUBBORN WARM NOSE ATOP THE FRONTAL INVERSION COULD GARNER A THIN
GLAZE OF ICE AS IS CURRENTLY SHOWCASED IN WPC/S WWD...BUT THESE
FACTORS ARE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT THIS FAR OUT UNTIL BETTER
MODEL RUN CONTINUITY EMERGES /FINGERS CROSSED/.

GFS AND ECM DO LINGER SOME TROUGH ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH SHOWN TO DIG INTO NRN CHIHUAHUA BY SAT...BUT THE BRUNT OF
THE LIFT LOCALLY LOOKS TO BE OVER WITH BY THIS TIME AS THE MAIN
PVA AND DEEPER SATURATION SHIFT DOWNSTREAM. A BRIEF ROUND OF
MILDER TEMPS ON SUN UNDER ZONAL FLOW STILL LOOKS TO CRUMBLE APART
SOMETIME MON OR TUE AS AN ARCTIC FRONT PLUNGES THROUGH MUCH OF
WEST TX. WITH OUR REGION PROGGED TO SIT UNDER WSW FLOW DOWNSTREAM
OF AN ELONGATING TROUGH THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING MAY ONCE AGAIN UNFOLD AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF STEADY FN
FORCING ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL LAYER FOR WINTRY PRECIP. STILL
TOO EARLY AND UNCERTAIN TO PAINT POPS IN THE GRIDS...BUT PATTERN
RECOGNITION OF THESE ARCTIC FROPAS UNDER SWLY FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY
WARRANT AT LEAST A FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  26  60  30  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         47  25  62  34  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     47  26  62  35  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     48  27  62  35  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       48  28  63  36  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   48  27  63  35  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    48  26  63  35  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     51  27  64  39  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          50  27  63  37  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     51  29  64  39  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93/07
698
FXUS64 KLUB 241008
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
408 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER FLOW TO BACK FROM NORTH TO WEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SFC
FLOW DOING THE SAME BUT ABOUT TWELVE HOURS FASTER. COOL AIR TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT FCST HIGH TEMPS A BIT OF A
BALANCING ACT. WILL SEE FAIRLY SHARP THICKNESS INCREASES COMPARED TO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...INCREASED
INSOLATION...AND A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT ON THE CAPROCK BY MID
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE COUNTERED BY THE COLDER START TO THE DAY
AND NEARLY NEUTRAL 24-HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE AT 850 MB. RESULT
SHOULD BE HIGHS NEAR THOSE OF YESTERDAY OFF THE CAPROCK BUT ABOUT
FOUR TO NINE DEGREES WARMER ON THE CAPROCK. FOR BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN. 00Z
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC AIR WILL EXERT MORE
PRESENCE OVER THE ENTIRE GREAT PLAINS FOR THE START OF THE FINAL
WEEK OF 2014...PERHAPS LINGERING THROUGH NEW YEARS DAY. BEFORE
THIS COLD SURGE ARRIVES...WE/RE LEFT SIFTING THROUGH THE DETAILS
OF POSITIVE-TILT TROUGHINESS OVER THE REGION FOR LATE FRI INTO
THE WEEKEND. MILD AND BREEZY SWLY WINDS ON CHRISTMAS ARE STILL ON
TRACK TO TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON FRI. DID NUDGE MAX
TEMPS UP ON FRI AS THIS FROPA HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN RECENT DAYS.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE RETURN TO UNSETTLED WX AS AN UPPER
TROUGH /STILL OFFSHORE OF NRN CALIFORNIA ATTM/ SHARPENS AND CLOSES
OFF IN THE FOUR CORNERS. PHASING DETAILS OF THIS WAVE WITH
STRONGER NRN STREAM ENERGY ARE AT LEAST PARTIALLY TO BLAME FOR
THE DISPARITY OF QPF AMONG MODELS /GFS EJECTS ENERGY THE FASTEST/
...BUT THE PATTERN ALONE SUGGESTS A WINDOW FOR TOP-DOWN MOISTENING
TO INTERACT WITH ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT PROGGED TO
LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA FRI NIGHT. KEPT POPS JUST BELOW CHANCE
LEVELS AS THE DEGREE OF TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS STILL A HUGE WILD
CARD 2.5 DAYS OUT. THE NAM AND ECM ARE LEADING THE QPF PACK VERSUS
THE BONE-DRY GFS AND CMC. THERMAL PROFILES ARE SHAPING UP TRICKY
WITH ALL PRECIP PHASES POSSIBLE INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN...BUT
WE/VE KEPT WX GRIDS SIMPLIFIED FOR NOW WITH JUST RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
A STUBBORN WARM NOSE ATOP THE FRONTAL INVERSION COULD GARNER A THIN
GLAZE OF ICE AS IS CURRENTLY SHOWCASED IN WPC/S WWD...BUT THESE
FACTORS ARE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT THIS FAR OUT UNTIL BETTER
MODEL RUN CONTINUITY EMERGES /FINGERS CROSSED/.

GFS AND ECM DO LINGER SOME TROUGH ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH SHOWN TO DIG INTO NRN CHIHUAHUA BY SAT...BUT THE BRUNT OF
THE LIFT LOCALLY LOOKS TO BE OVER WITH BY THIS TIME AS THE MAIN
PVA AND DEEPER SATURATION SHIFT DOWNSTREAM. A BRIEF ROUND OF
MILDER TEMPS ON SUN UNDER ZONAL FLOW STILL LOOKS TO CRUMBLE APART
SOMETIME MON OR TUE AS AN ARCTIC FRONT PLUNGES THROUGH MUCH OF
WEST TX. WITH OUR REGION PROGGED TO SIT UNDER WSW FLOW DOWNSTREAM
OF AN ELONGATING TROUGH THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING MAY ONCE AGAIN UNFOLD AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF STEADY FN
FORCING ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL LAYER FOR WINTRY PRECIP. STILL
TOO EARLY AND UNCERTAIN TO PAINT POPS IN THE GRIDS...BUT PATTERN
RECOGNITION OF THESE ARCTIC FROPAS UNDER SWLY FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY
WARRANT AT LEAST A FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NULL.
&&

$$

07/93
310
FXUS64 KLUB 240535
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1135 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS MAY STILL FLIRT WITH MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 08 UTC OR 09
UTC...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BREEZY NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SWING AROUND TO THE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST BY THIS
EVENING...WHILE GRADUALLY DECREASING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/

UPDATE...
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH
WEST TEXAS MESONET SITES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ARE STILL SHOWING PERIODIC ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS. AT THIS TIME WE
ARE PLANNING ON ENDING THE WIND ADVISORY AT 6 PM AS SCHEDULED.

AVIATION...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...BUT COULD BRIEFLY DROP
INTO MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY AT KCDS. NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE SHOULD DROP UNDER 20 KTS BY 7 OR 8
PM...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
JUST TO OUR EAST THENCE INTO MEXICO.  NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BACKING TO NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING SHOULD HELP
KNOCK THINGS BACK UNDER 20 KTS.  SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL VEER FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND HELP ESTABLISH A
WARMING TREND ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO NEAR THE 50
DEGREE MARK.  TURNING BACK TO PRECIPITATION...WE MAY SEE SOME VIRGA
OR PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES AND THATS ABOUT IT THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...
CHRISTMAS DAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE WINDY SIDE...THOUGH NOT AS
BAD AS TODAY. A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS SE CO/SW KS DURING THE
DAY AS 40-50 KT H7 SW FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH SCENARIOS
SUPPORT WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE MILD SIDE WITH H8 THERMAL TROUGH APPROACHING 12-14C AND A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING OVER THE ROCKIES.

HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN IN ERNEST DURING THE DAY ALSO AS A STORM SYSTEM
DIGS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER DEEPENS ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA HELPING TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME ENERGY ON THE
TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM MAY BRING ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS
IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SATURATE DEEP ENOUGH FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP
AT THE SURFACE. MED RANGE MODELS AND THE LATEST NAM AGREE ON SOME
PRECIP EMERGING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AS A CDFNT
BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD GIVE ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FORM A
GOOD CHANCE OF BEING FROZEN BY DAYBREAK SAT MORNING. THE MAJORITY
OF THE LIFT APPEARS TO PLAY OUT FROM NW-SE DURING THE DAY SAT SO
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO MEET THIS TREND. SURFACE RIDGING
QUICKLY PASSES TO THE EAST WHICH WILL HELP SALVAGE AT LEAST ONE
DAY OF THE WEEKEND FOR A BIT OF A WARMING TREND BEFORE THE BOTTOM
FALLS OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF AND GFS BUILD A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO ERN ALASKA BY MON. PATTERN
RECOGNITION INDICATES A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS
BEEN STORED FOR MUCH OF THIS MONTH WILL BE UNLEASHED FOR ITS RIDE
DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. TIMING OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY AT THE MOMENT LOOKS TO BE ON
MON WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND LOWERING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO
TUE. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        17  47  23  62  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         22  46  25  61  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     25  47  26  62  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     23  48  24  63  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       26  49  27  64  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   23  48  25  63  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    24  47  25  63  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     30  51  29  65  40 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          29  50  28  63  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     31  51  30  65  41 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
130
FXUS64 KLUB 232344
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
544 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.UPDATE...
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH
WEST TEXAS MESONET SITES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ARE STILL SHOWING PERIODIC ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS. AT THIS TIME WE
ARE PLANNING ON ENDING THE WIND ADVISORY AT 6 PM AS SCHEDULED.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...BUT COULD BRIEFLY DROP
INTO MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY AT KCDS. NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE SHOULD DROP UNDER 20 KTS BY 7 OR 8
PM...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
JUST TO OUR EAST THENCE INTO MEXICO.  NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BACKING TO NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING SHOULD HELP
KNOCK THINGS BACK UNDER 20 KTS.  SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL VEER FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND HELP ESTABLISH A
WARMING TREND ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO NEAR THE 50
DEGREE MARK.  TURNING BACK TO PRECIPITATION...WE MAY SEE SOME VIRGA
OR PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES AND THATS ABOUT IT THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...
CHRISTMAS DAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE WINDY SIDE...THOUGH NOT AS
BAD AS TODAY. A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS SE CO/SW KS DURING THE
DAY AS 40-50 KT H7 SW FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH SCENARIOS
SUPPORT WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE MILD SIDE WITH H8 THERMAL TROUGH APPROACHING 12-14C AND A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING OVER THE ROCKIES.

HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN IN ERNEST DURING THE DAY ALSO AS A STORM SYSTEM
DIGS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER DEEPENS ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA HELPING TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME ENERGY ON THE
TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM MAY BRING ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS
IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SATURATE DEEP ENOUGH FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP
AT THE SURFACE. MED RANGE MODELS AND THE LATEST NAM AGREE ON SOME
PRECIP EMERGING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AS A CDFNT
BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD GIVE ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FORM A
GOOD CHANCE OF BEING FROZEN BY DAYBREAK SAT MORNING. THE MAJORITY
OF THE LIFT APPEARS TO PLAY OUT FROM NW-SE DURING THE DAY SAT SO
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO MEET THIS TREND. SURFACE RIDGING
QUICKLY PASSES TO THE EAST WHICH WILL HELP SALVAGE AT LEAST ONE
DAY OF THE WEEKEND FOR A BIT OF A WARMING TREND BEFORE THE BOTTOM
FALLS OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF AND GFS BUILD A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO ERN ALASKA BY MON. PATTERN
RECOGNITION INDICATES A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS
BEEN STORED FOR MUCH OF THIS MONTH WILL BE UNLEASHED FOR ITS RIDE
DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. TIMING OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY AT THE MOMENT LOOKS TO BE ON
MON WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND LOWERING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO
TUE. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        17  47  23  62  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         22  46  25  61  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     25  47  26  62  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     23  48  24  63  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       26  49  27  64  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   23  48  25  63  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    24  47  25  63  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     30  51  29  65  40 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          29  50  28  63  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     31  51  30  65  41 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>038.

&&

$$

33
690
FXUS64 KLUB 232157
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
357 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
JUST TO OUR EAST THENCE INTO MEXICO.  NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BACKING TO NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING SHOULD HELP
KNOCK THINGS BACK UNDER 20 KTS.  SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL VEER FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND HELP ESTABLISH A
WARMING TREND ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO NEAR THE 50
DEGREE MARK.  TURNING BACK TO PRECIPITATION...WE MAY SEE SOME VIRGA
OR PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES AND THATS ABOUT IT THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
CHRISTMAS DAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE WINDY SIDE...THOUGH NOT AS
BAD AS TODAY. A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS SE CO/SW KS DURING THE
DAY AS 40-50 KT H7 SW FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH SCENARIOS
SUPPORT WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE MILD SIDE WITH H8 THERMAL TROUGH APPROACHING 12-14C AND A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING OVER THE ROCKIES.

HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN IN ERNEST DURING THE DAY ALSO AS A STORM SYSTEM
DIGS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER DEEPENS ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA HELPING TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME ENERGY ON THE
TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM MAY BRING ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS
IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SATURATE DEEP ENOUGH FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP
AT THE SURFACE. MED RANGE MODELS AND THE LATEST NAM AGREE ON SOME
PRECIP EMERGING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AS A CDFNT
BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD GIVE ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FORM A
GOOD CHANCE OF BEING FROZEN BY DAYBREAK SAT MORNING. THE MAJORITY
OF THE LIFT APPEARS TO PLAY OUT FROM NW-SE DURING THE DAY SAT SO
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO MEET THIS TREND. SURFACE RIDGING
QUICKLY PASSES TO THE EAST WHICH WILL HELP SALVAGE AT LEAST ONE
DAY OF THE WEEKEND FOR A BIT OF A WARMING TREND BEFORE THE BOTTOM
FALLS OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF AND GFS BUILD A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO ERN ALASKA BY MON. PATTERN
RECOGNITION INDICATES A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS
BEEN STORED FOR MUCH OF THIS MONTH WILL BE UNLEASHED FOR ITS RIDE
DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. TIMING OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY AT THE MOMENT LOOKS TO BE ON
MON WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND LOWERING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO
TUE. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        18  46  24  63  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         22  48  27  63  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     25  48  28  63  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     24  47  27  64  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       25  47  29  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   24  48  28  65  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    25  48  28  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     31  50  31  67  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          28  50  30  65  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     30  51  31  66  41 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>038.

&&

$$

26/24
156
FXUS64 KLUB 231747
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.UPDATE...
GIVEN TRENDS...HAVE INCREASE WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY. THERE IS A BIT OF A CLEARING MOVING
THROUGH THE CWFA WHICH IS HELPING TO MIX WINDS DOWNWARD YIELDING
SPEEDS IN THE LOWER 30S JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE HRX AND REE WEST TEXAS
MESONET SODARS HAVE ALSO INDICATED 50KT SPEEDS NOT FAR OFF THE DECK.
MORE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND
SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS SPEEDS A BIT MORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING ALLOWS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER SPEEDS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS MAINLY AFTER 03Z AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
NOTE THAT INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ICING
POTENTIAL THIS EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES BUT EXPECT KLBB AND
KPVW TO BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY IMPACT KPVW AND KLBB OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE SO SPOTTY AND AMOUNTS SO LIGHT THAT GOING WITH ANY MENTION
WOULD NOT BE WARRANTED. WILL WATCH THROUGH THE MORNING AND AMEND
IF NECESSARY. WIND SPEED WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY
POSSIBLY REACHING THE 25 TO 30 KT SUSTAINED OUT OF THE NORTH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON MAY IMPACT KCDS
BUT REMAIN EAST OF KLBB AND KPVW. THESE SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AFTER SUNSET...WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF PRECIPITATION HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE
AREA...FASTER THAN PRETTY MUCH EVERY OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN HAD IN
THE 12Z RUNS YESTERDAY AND THE 00Z RUNS TODAY.  BEST MODELS HAVE
BEEN THE HRRR AND TTU-WRF WHICH BOTH SEEM TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE IN
THEIR FORECASTS COMPARED TO OBSERVED RADAR DATA.  WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS THE TROF AXIS IS ALMOST OVERHEAD AS IT DRIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST.  THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE TIGHTENING OF A CIRCULATION EAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER THAT IS LIKELY HELPING
TO GENERATE SOME OF THE ADDITIONAL RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

ANY PRECIPITATION ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY
REMAIN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE JUST NOW
STARTING TO FLIRT WITH FREEZING.  THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN AERIAL COVERAGE IN THE RETURNS BUT THERE COULD STILL BE
SOME MIXED PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND BY SUNRISE...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING RESULTING IN A BRIEF LULL LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  STILL IS SOME CONCERN ON HOW STRONG WIND
SPEEDS WILL BECOME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GFS STILL WANTS TO RAMP
WINDS UP TO 25-35 MPH SUSTAINED ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK.  ALL
OTHER MODELS ABOUT 10 MPH LOWER SO WE OPTED TO KEEP WIND SPEEDS
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER VORTMAX STRENGTHENS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROF AXIS.  HIGHER RESOLUTION TTU-WRF AND HRRR ARE
HINTING THAT THESE WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED SHOWERS...NOT ANYTHING
THAT WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT LAPSE RATES INCREASE A BIT AS THE
SECOND VORT MAX ROTATES AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF AND THERE IS
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION.  COVERAGE
IS LIMITED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE TROF
AXIS AND WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT.
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS A RESULT.  TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 50 ACROSS HERE
SO PROFILE WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY KIND OF A MIX OF PRECIPITATION.
CAPROCK WILL BE COOLER MAINLY DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION THAT HAS
FALLEN...CLOUD COVER...AND THE BRISK NORTH WIND.

ANY PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET AS THE TROF AXIS
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND AS LAPSE RATES START TO DECREASE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE PRETTY CHILLY BUT NOT AS COLD AS IT
COULD BE AS WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UP DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINING SOMEWHAT TIGHT.  STILL WILL SEE READINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEENS WITH THE
ROLLING PLAINS HOVERING AROUND FREEZING.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE FINAL DAYS OF 2014 LOOK TO CLOSE OUT ON A CHILLY NOTE AS A
LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE UNFOLDS AND DIRECTS ARCTIC AIR INTO
MUCH OF MIDDLE CONUS INCLUDING WEST TX. THIS TRANSITION WILL
ALREADY BE IN FULL SWING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT UNTIL THEN
A WARMING TREND IN STORE UNDERNEATH RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND TODAY/S
UPPER TROUGH. CHRISTMAS DAY IS STILL SHAPING UP QUITE MILD AS LEE
TROUGHING DEEPENS TO OUR WEST AND SUBJECTS MUCH OF THE CWA TO AN
ENHANCED BAND OF SWLY GRADIENT WINDS. EDGED MAX TEMPS UP CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF MOS AS MAV AND MET APPEAR SUSPICIOUSLY COOL FOR THIS
DEEP SWLY FLOW REGIME.

ECM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD ACCORD WITH A STRONG COLD FROPA BY FRI AS
A PIECE OF A TROUGH IN THE FOUR CORNERS LIFTS NORTHEAST. WHERE
THESE MODELS DIFFER IS HOW MUCH ENERGY LINGERS BACK IN THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST FOR FRI NITE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE DEEPER
ECM ADVECTS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NEWD ATOP OUR COOL DOME AND AS
SUCH IS EAGER TO GENERATE BOTH LIFT AND QPF ALONG THE ELEVATED
FRONTAL SURFACE. THE GFS IS DRIER AND ABOUT 40 METERS HIGHER WITH
500MB HEIGHTS COMPARED TO ITS FIERCEST COMPETITOR...BUT STILL
GARNERS LIGHT QPF ON SAT WITH ITS DAMPENED TROUGH. EARLIER
SUPERBLEND POPS WERE MASSAGED A BIT TO BETTER WEIGHT THE LATEST
00Z GUIDANCE...BUT A VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW EVENT REMAINS IN THE
CARDS FOR FRI NITE-SAT.

BY LATE WEEKEND AND MONDAY...THE STAGE LOOKS PRIMED FOR AN ARCTIC
DUMP AS DEEP NLY FLOW ENSUES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH TO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE NOT DEVIATING MUCH
WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE...SO CONFIDENCE IS MOUNTING THAT OUR MILD
DECEMBER MAY END ON A CHILLY NOTE. IF THE ARCTIC AIR IS AS STRONG
AS CURRENTLY PROGGED...WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO AT LEAST SEE
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SOME POINT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THESE ARCTIC
AIRMASSES CAN BE NOTORIOUS FOR SUSTAINING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION. TEMPS WERE EDGED DOWN IN LINE WITH
CONSALL...BUT IT/S TOO SOON TO JUMP ON ANY POPS EVEN WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH PROGGED TO OUR WEST BY MON/TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  18  46  24  63 /  20   0   0   0   0
TULIA         40  22  48  27  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     41  25  48  28  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     41  24  47  27  64 /  20   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       42  25  47  29  64 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   42  24  48  28  65 /  20   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    43  25  48  28  64 /  20   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     47  31  50  31  67 /  20  10   0   0   0
SPUR          47  28  50  30  65 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     49  30  51  31  66 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>038.

&&

$$

26/99/26
305
FXUS64 KLUB 231125 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
525 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES BUT EXPECT KLBB AND
KPVW TO BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY IMPACT KPVW AND KLBB OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE SO SPOTTY AND AMOUNTS SO LIGHT THAT GOING WITH ANY MENTION
WOULD NOT BE WARRANTED. WILL WATCH THROUGH THE MORNING AND AMEND
IF NECESSARY. WIND SPEED WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY
POSSIBLY REACHING THE 25 TO 30 KT SUSTAINED OUT OF THE NORTH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON MAY IMPACT KCDS
BUT REMAIN EAST OF KLBB AND KPVW. THESE SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AFTER SUNSET...WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF PRECIPITATION HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE
AREA...FASTER THAN PRETTY MUCH EVERY OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN HAD IN
THE 12Z RUNS YESTERDAY AND THE 00Z RUNS TODAY.  BEST MODELS HAVE
BEEN THE HRRR AND TTU-WRF WHICH BOTH SEEM TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE IN
THEIR FORECASTS COMPARED TO OBSERVED RADAR DATA.  WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS THE TROF AXIS IS ALMOST OVERHEAD AS IT DRIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST.  THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE TIGHTENING OF A CIRCULATION EAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER THAT IS LIKELY HELPING
TO GENERATE SOME OF THE ADDITIONAL RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

ANY PRECIPITATION ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY
REMAIN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE JUST NOW
STARTING TO FLIRT WITH FREEZING.  THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN AERIAL COVERAGE IN THE RETURNS BUT THERE COULD STILL BE
SOME MIXED PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND BY SUNRISE...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING RESULTING IN A BRIEF LULL LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  STILL IS SOME CONCERN ON HOW STRONG WIND
SPEEDS WILL BECOME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GFS STILL WANTS TO RAMP
WINDS UP TO 25-35 MPH SUSTAINED ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK.  ALL
OTHER MODELS ABOUT 10 MPH LOWER SO WE OPTED TO KEEP WIND SPEEDS
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER VORTMAX STRENGTHENS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROF AXIS.  HIGHER RESOLUTION TTU-WRF AND HRRR ARE
HINTING THAT THESE WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED SHOWERS...NOT ANYTHING
THAT WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT LAPSE RATES INCREASE A BIT AS THE
SECOND VORT MAX ROTATES AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF AND THERE IS
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION.  COVERAGE
IS LIMITED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE TROF
AXIS AND WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT.
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS A RESULT.  TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 50 ACROSS HERE
SO PROFILE WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY KIND OF A MIX OF PRECIPITATION.
CAPROCK WILL BE COOLER MAINLY DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION THAT HAS
FALLEN...CLOUD COVER...AND THE BRISK NORTH WIND.

ANY PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET AS THE TROF AXIS
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND AS LAPSE RATES START TO DECREASE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE PRETTY CHILLY BUT NOT AS COLD AS IT
COULD BE AS WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UP DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINING SOMEWHAT TIGHT.  STILL WILL SEE READINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEENS WITH THE
ROLLING PLAINS HOVERING AROUND FREEZING.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE FINAL DAYS OF 2014 LOOK TO CLOSE OUT ON A CHILLY NOTE AS A
LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE UNFOLDS AND DIRECTS ARCTIC AIR INTO
MUCH OF MIDDLE CONUS INCLUDING WEST TX. THIS TRANSITION WILL
ALREADY BE IN FULL SWING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT UNTIL THEN
A WARMING TREND IN STORE UNDERNEATH RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND TODAY/S
UPPER TROUGH. CHRISTMAS DAY IS STILL SHAPING UP QUITE MILD AS LEE
TROUGHING DEEPENS TO OUR WEST AND SUBJECTS MUCH OF THE CWA TO AN
ENHANCED BAND OF SWLY GRADIENT WINDS. EDGED MAX TEMPS UP CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF MOS AS MAV AND MET APPEAR SUSPICIOUSLY COOL FOR THIS
DEEP SWLY FLOW REGIME.

ECM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD ACCORD WITH A STRONG COLD FROPA BY FRI AS
A PIECE OF A TROUGH IN THE FOUR CORNERS LIFTS NORTHEAST. WHERE
THESE MODELS DIFFER IS HOW MUCH ENERGY LINGERS BACK IN THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST FOR FRI NITE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE DEEPER
ECM ADVECTS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NEWD ATOP OUR COOL DOME AND AS
SUCH IS EAGER TO GENERATE BOTH LIFT AND QPF ALONG THE ELEVATED
FRONTAL SURFACE. THE GFS IS DRIER AND ABOUT 40 METERS HIGHER WITH
500MB HEIGHTS COMPARED TO ITS FIERCEST COMPETITOR...BUT STILL
GARNERS LIGHT QPF ON SAT WITH ITS DAMPENED TROUGH. EARLIER
SUPERBLEND POPS WERE MASSAGED A BIT TO BETTER WEIGHT THE LATEST
00Z GUIDANCE...BUT A VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW EVENT REMAINS IN THE
CARDS FOR FRI NITE-SAT.

BY LATE WEEKEND AND MONDAY...THE STAGE LOOKS PRIMED FOR AN ARCTIC
DUMP AS DEEP NLY FLOW ENSUES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH TO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE NOT DEVIATING MUCH
WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE...SO CONFIDENCE IS MOUNTING THAT OUR MILD
DECEMBER MAY END ON A CHILLY NOTE. IF THE ARCTIC AIR IS AS STRONG
AS CURRENTLY PROGGED...WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO AT LEAST SEE
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SOME POINT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THESE ARCTIC
AIRMASSES CAN BE NOTORIOUS FOR SUSTAINING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION. TEMPS WERE EDGED DOWN IN LINE WITH
CONSALL...BUT IT/S TOO SOON TO JUMP ON ANY POPS EVEN WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH PROGGED TO OUR WEST BY MON/TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  18  46  24  63 /  20   0   0   0   0
TULIA         40  22  48  27  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     41  25  48  28  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     41  24  47  27  64 /  20   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       42  25  47  29  64 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   42  24  48  28  65 /  20   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    43  25  48  28  64 /  20   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     47  31  50  31  67 /  20  10   0   0   0
SPUR          47  28  50  30  65 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     49  30  51  31  66 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/14
290
FXUS64 KLUB 231032
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
432 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF PRECIPITATION HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE
AREA...FASTER THAN PRETTY MUCH EVERY OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN HAD IN
THE 12Z RUNS YESTERDAY AND THE 00Z RUNS TODAY.  BEST MODELS HAVE
BEEN THE HRRR AND TTU-WRF WHICH BOTH SEEM TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE IN
THEIR FORECASTS COMPARED TO OBSERVED RADAR DATA.  WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS THE TROF AXIS IS ALMOST OVERHEAD AS IT DRIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST.  THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE TIGHTENING OF A CIRCULATION EAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER THAT IS LIKELY HELPING
TO GENERATE SOME OF THE ADDITIONAL RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

ANY PRECIPITATION ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY
REMAIN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE JUST NOW
STARTING TO FLIRT WITH FREEZING.  THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN AERIAL COVERAGE IN THE RETURNS BUT THERE COULD STILL BE
SOME MIXED PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND BY SUNRISE...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING RESULTING IN A BRIEF LULL LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  STILL IS SOME CONCERN ON HOW STRONG WIND
SPEEDS WILL BECOME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GFS STILL WANTS TO RAMP
WINDS UP TO 25-35 MPH SUSTAINED ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK.  ALL
OTHER MODELS ABOUT 10 MPH LOWER SO WE OPTED TO KEEP WIND SPEEDS
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER VORTMAX STRENGTHENS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROF AXIS.  HIGHER RESOLUTION TTU-WRF AND HRRR ARE
HINTING THAT THESE WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED SHOWERS...NOT ANYTHING
THAT WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT LAPSE RATES INCREASE A BIT AS THE
SECOND VORT MAX ROTATES AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF AND THERE IS
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION.  COVERAGE
IS LIMITED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE TROF
AXIS AND WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT.
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS A RESULT.  TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 50 ACROSS HERE
SO PROFILE WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY KIND OF A MIX OF PRECIPITATION.
CAPROCK WILL BE COOLER MAINLY DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION THAT HAS
FALLEN...CLOUD COVER...AND THE BRISK NORTH WIND.

ANY PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET AS THE TROF AXIS
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND AS LAPSE RATES START TO DECREASE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE PRETTY CHILLY BUT NOT AS COLD AS IT
COULD BE AS WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UP DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINING SOMEWHAT TIGHT.  STILL WILL SEE READINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEENS WITH THE
ROLLING PLAINS HOVERING AROUND FREEZING.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE FINAL DAYS OF 2014 LOOK TO CLOSE OUT ON A CHILLY NOTE AS A
LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE UNFOLDS AND DIRECTS ARCTIC AIR INTO
MUCH OF MIDDLE CONUS INCLUDING WEST TX. THIS TRANSITION WILL
ALREADY BE IN FULL SWING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT UNTIL THEN
A WARMING TREND IN STORE UNDERNEATH RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND TODAY/S
UPPER TROUGH. CHRISTMAS DAY IS STILL SHAPING UP QUITE MILD AS LEE
TROUGHING DEEPENS TO OUR WEST AND SUBJECTS MUCH OF THE CWA TO AN
ENHANCED BAND OF SWLY GRADIENT WINDS. EDGED MAX TEMPS UP CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF MOS AS MAV AND MET APPEAR SUSPICIOUSLY COOL FOR THIS
DEEP SWLY FLOW REGIME.

ECM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD ACCORD WITH A STRONG COLD FROPA BY FRI AS
A PIECE OF A TROUGH IN THE FOUR CORNERS LIFTS NORTHEAST. WHERE
THESE MODELS DIFFER IS HOW MUCH ENERGY LINGERS BACK IN THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST FOR FRI NITE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE DEEPER
ECM ADVECTS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NEWD ATOP OUR COOL DOME AND AS
SUCH IS EAGER TO GENERATE BOTH LIFT AND QPF ALONG THE ELEVATED
FRONTAL SURFACE. THE GFS IS DRIER AND ABOUT 40 METERS HIGHER WITH
500MB HEIGHTS COMPARED TO ITS FIERCEST COMPETITOR...BUT STILL
GARNERS LIGHT QPF ON SAT WITH ITS DAMPENED TROUGH. EARLIER
SUPERBLEND POPS WERE MASSAGED A BIT TO BETTER WEIGHT THE LATEST
00Z GUIDANCE...BUT A VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW EVENT REMAINS IN THE
CARDS FOR FRI NITE-SAT.

BY LATE WEEKEND AND MONDAY...THE STAGE LOOKS PRIMED FOR AN ARCTIC
DUMP AS DEEP NLY FLOW ENSUES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH TO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE NOT DEVIATING MUCH
WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE...SO CONFIDENCE IS MOUNTING THAT OUR MILD
DECEMBER MAY END ON A CHILLY NOTE. IF THE ARCTIC AIR IS AS STRONG
AS CURRENTLY PROGGED...WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO AT LEAST SEE
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SOME POINT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THESE ARCTIC
AIRMASSES CAN BE NOTORIOUS FOR SUSTAINING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION. TEMPS WERE EDGED DOWN IN LINE WITH
CONSALL...BUT IT/S TOO SOON TO JUMP ON ANY POPS EVEN WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH PROGGED TO OUR WEST BY MON/TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  18  46  24  63 /  20   0   0   0   0
TULIA         40  22  48  27  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     41  25  48  28  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     41  24  47  27  64 /  20   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       42  25  47  29  64 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   42  24  48  28  65 /  20   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    43  25  48  28  64 /  20   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     47  31  50  31  67 /  20  10   0   0   0
SPUR          47  28  50  30  65 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     49  30  51  31  66 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93
257
FXUS64 KLUB 230603
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1203 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT BAND OF -RASN IMPACTING KLBB TERMINAL AT THIS TIME SHOULD
CLEAR WITHIN FIRST HOUR OF FCST. ANOTHER AREA OF -SN CURRENTLY
MOVING SSE THROUGH NERN NM/NW TX PNHDL APPEARS THAT IT WILL PASS
ALONG OR TO THE WEST OF A KPVW-TO-KLBB LINE AROUND 09Z-10Z. CIGS
MAY DROP BRIEFLY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KLBB AND KPVW AROUND
THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
KLBB...KPVW AND KCDS.

NEXT FOCUS FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE THE INCREASING NORTHERLY
WINDS DURING MID-TO-LATE MORNG WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS AND PATCHY
BLOWING DUST AT TIMES THROUGH LATE AFTN. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT STRONG FORCING/ASCENT MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH PLAINS AREA WITH COOLING
OF COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THIS AREA...A
FEW HOURS AHEAD OF AFTN FORECAST. FURTHERMORE...RECENT HRRR
FORECAST TRENDS ALONG WITH REGIONAL SURFACE OBS AND RADAR IMAGERY
AS WELL AS IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT BEST ASCENT MAY
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH NM AND ROTATE EAST A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS NWP OUTPUT/FORECAST SHIFTS. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS HEAVIEST PCPN IS APPEARING IN
SOUTHERN ZONES AT THIS TIME. JH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

AVIATION...
AN ADDITIONAL AVIATION CONCERN HAS ARISEN FROM THREAT OF STRONG
DOWNDRAFT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THREAT WILL STEADILY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNG AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS FROM FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION. JH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 14 HOURS WILL BE CIGS
DROPPING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KLBB AND KPVW AS THREAT OF
-SHRA/RA INCREASES AND TRANSITIONS TO -RASN THEN -SN OVERNIGHT.
VSBYS AT THESE LOCATIONS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES DURING BRIEF PERIODS OF /HEAVIER/ BANDS OF -SN.
MEANWHILE...OVER AT KCDS...EXPECTING PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS DESPITE PASSING -SHRA.

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO INCREASING WINDS IN WAKE
OF PRECIPITATION TUE MORNG. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO
40KTS AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNG THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. JH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT LIFT IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TX
PANHANDLE AT 4 PM. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET IS DIGGING INTO NRN NM
ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THE
JET WILL HELP DEEPEN THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH
WILL THEN SWING SEWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE FA WITH A
850MB TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND A 700 MB
LOW/TROUGH OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE
SOUTHWARD. QUITE A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS CAUGHT UP IN THIS
TROUGH AND SOME STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL. ALL OF THIS TO SAY
THAT THE SETUP LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS
MOST OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN QUITE
GENEROUS...RANGING FROM ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NORTH TO
MORE THAN A HALF INCH IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AND THIS
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN OUR NW ZONES WELL BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL END EARLY IN THAT AREA
AND THERE MAY NOT BE A LARGE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATION. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MORE OF THE INITIAL PRECIP WILL FALL AS
LIQUID...AND THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH WE ARE FAIRLY CERTAIN
THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A MIXTURE ON THE CAPROCK. OFF THE
CAPROCK...PRECIP IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH THE EVENT.
SO...AT THIS TIME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...AND WE HAVE FORECAST TOTALS RANGING FROM JUST SHY OF TWO
INCHES ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE...TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. THE RELATIVELY MILD SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES...AND MOST ROADWAYS COULD REMAIN PROBLEM FREE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LIFT AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR TEMPS TO
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FORECAST...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SOME
GREATER ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
TO COVER THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
FROM SNOW.

AFTER THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END AROUND MIDDAY...WE WILL STILL HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
SPEEDS...BUT WILL BE GUSTING INTO THE 40S MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKS SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR COORDINATION WITH THIS EVENT.

LONG TERM...
CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW SHEARS OUT LATE TUE WITH ONE LAST PIECE
OF JET ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH
ACROSS CENTRAL TX. PRIMARY FORCING WITH TRAILING SHORTWV SHOULD BE
WELL EAST OF THE TX PNHDL/ROLLING PLAINS WITH BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS
HANGING IN ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CHRISTMAS DAY WHEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LEAD ENERGY
SPLITTING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SFC
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT
GRADIENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS /20-30
MPH/ CHRISTMAS DAY. H8 THERMAL RIDGING OF 12-14C COMBINED WITH
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 60S SO
SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY BLDU IN
THE GRIDS ATTM AS TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
WITH SYSTEM YET TO ENTER THE CONUS U/A NETWORK.

STILL MAJORITY OF MED RANGE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A LONGWV TROUGH
VCNTY THE ROCKIES BY LATE CHRISTMAS DAY. FROM THAT POINT ON THEIR
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL TRY TO HANG BACK
ACROSS THE DESERT SW AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE DEVELOPING SHORTWV OVER AZ/NM HAS
RAMIFICATIONS COME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. A STRONG CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS SHOULD MAKE GOOD HEADWAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FRI
SETTING UP THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN AS THE
STORM SYSTEM OUT WEST ARRIVES. AS A RESULT HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHC
POPS FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS. ECMWF AND CANADIAN REMAIN STRONGER WITH SOUTHERN
SPLIT SYSTEM AND ALSO MUCH COLDER WITH SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SLIDING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT ANY RATE SAT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST
DAY OF THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD. RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS MORE WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS FOR FRI INDICATES EQUALLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM SO POPS LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED MANY TIME BEFORE THEN.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  39  20  46  25 /  80  10  10   0   0
TULIA         31  40  25  46  28 /  70  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     31  42  26  46  29 /  80  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  43  26  47  29 /  80  20   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       31  44  28  48  30 /  80  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   31  44  26  47  30 /  70  30   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    31  43  28  47  30 /  80  20   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  48  33  49  30 /  30  10  10  10   0
SPUR          34  46  31  48  32 /  80  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     37  49  34  51  32 /  80  30  10   0   0
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021-022-027>029-033>035-039-040.
&&

$$

02
110
FXUS64 KLUB 230354
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
954 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT STRONG FORCING/ASCENT MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH PLAINS AREA WITH COOLING
OF COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THIS AREA...A
FEW HOURS AHEAD OF AFTN FORECAST. FURTHERMORE...RECENT HRRR
FORECAST TRENDS ALONG WITH REGIONAL SURFACE OBS AND RADAR IMAGERY
AS WELL AS IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT BEST ASCENT MAY
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH NM AND ROTATE EAST A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS NWP OUTPUT/FORECAST SHIFTS. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS HEAVIEST PCPN IS APPEARING IN
SOUTHERN ZONES AT THIS TIME. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

AVIATION...
AN ADDITIONAL AVIATION CONCERN HAS ARISEN FROM THREAT OF STRONG
DOWNDRAFT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THREAT WILL STEADILY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNG AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS FROM FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION.
JH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 14 HOURS WILL BE CIGS
DROPPING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KLBB AND KPVW AS THREAT OF
-SHRA/RA INCREASES AND TRANSITIONS TO -RASN THEN -SN OVERNIGHT.
VSBYS AT THESE LOCATIONS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES DURING BRIEF PERIODS OF /HEAVIER/ BANDS OF -SN.
MEANWHILE...OVER AT KCDS...EXPECTING PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS DESPITE PASSING -SHRA.

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO INCREASING WINDS IN WAKE
OF PRECIPITATION TUE MORNG. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO
40KTS AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNG THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. JH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT LIFT IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TX
PANHANDLE AT 4 PM. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET IS DIGGING INTO NRN NM
ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THE
JET WILL HELP DEEPEN THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH
WILL THEN SWING SEWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE FA WITH A
850MB TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND A 700 MB
LOW/TROUGH OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE
SOUTHWARD. QUITE A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS CAUGHT UP IN THIS
TROUGH AND SOME STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL. ALL OF THIS TO SAY
THAT THE SETUP LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS
MOST OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN QUITE
GENEROUS...RANGING FROM ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NORTH TO
MORE THAN A HALF INCH IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AND THIS
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN OUR NW ZONES WELL BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL END EARLY IN THAT AREA
AND THERE MAY NOT BE A LARGE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATION. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MORE OF THE INITIAL PRECIP WILL FALL AS
LIQUID...AND THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH WE ARE FAIRLY CERTAIN
THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A MIXTURE ON THE CAPROCK. OFF THE
CAPROCK...PRECIP IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH THE EVENT.
SO...AT THIS TIME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...AND WE HAVE FORECAST TOTALS RANGING FROM JUST SHY OF TWO
INCHES ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE...TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. THE RELATIVELY MILD SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES...AND MOST ROADWAYS COULD REMAIN PROBLEM FREE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LIFT AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR TEMPS TO
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FORECAST...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SOME
GREATER ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
TO COVER THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
FROM SNOW.

AFTER THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END AROUND MIDDAY...WE WILL STILL HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
SPEEDS...BUT WILL BE GUSTING INTO THE 40S MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKS SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR COORDINATION WITH THIS EVENT.

LONG TERM...
CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW SHEARS OUT LATE TUE WITH ONE LAST PIECE
OF JET ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH
ACROSS CENTRAL TX. PRIMARY FORCING WITH TRAILING SHORTWV SHOULD BE
WELL EAST OF THE TX PNHDL/ROLLING PLAINS WITH BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS
HANGING IN ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CHRISTMAS DAY WHEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LEAD ENERGY
SPLITTING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SFC
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT
GRADIENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS /20-30
MPH/ CHRISTMAS DAY. H8 THERMAL RIDGING OF 12-14C COMBINED WITH
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 60S SO
SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY BLDU IN
THE GRIDS ATTM AS TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
WITH SYSTEM YET TO ENTER THE CONUS U/A NETWORK.

STILL MAJORITY OF MED RANGE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A LONGWV TROUGH
VCNTY THE ROCKIES BY LATE CHRISTMAS DAY. FROM THAT POINT ON THEIR
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL TRY TO HANG BACK
ACROSS THE DESERT SW AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE DEVELOPING SHORTWV OVER AZ/NM HAS
RAMIFICATIONS COME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. A STRONG CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS SHOULD MAKE GOOD HEADWAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FRI
SETTING UP THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN AS THE
STORM SYSTEM OUT WEST ARRIVES. AS A RESULT HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHC
POPS FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS. ECMWF AND CANADIAN REMAIN STRONGER WITH SOUTHERN
SPLIT SYSTEM AND ALSO MUCH COLDER WITH SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SLIDING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT ANY RATE SAT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST
DAY OF THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD. RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS MORE WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS FOR FRI INDICATES EQUALLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM SO POPS LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED MANY TIME BEFORE THEN.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  39  20  46  25 /  80  10  10   0   0
TULIA         31  40  25  46  28 /  70  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     31  42  26  46  29 /  80  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  43  26  47  29 /  80  20   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       31  44  28  48  30 /  80  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   31  44  26  47  30 /  70  30   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    31  43  28  47  30 /  80  20   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  48  33  49  30 /  30  10  10  10   0
SPUR          34  46  31  48  32 /  80  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     37  49  34  51  32 /  80  30  10   0   0
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021-022-027>029-033>035-039-040.
&&

$$

02
720
FXUS64 KLUB 230130
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
730 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...
AN ADDITIONAL AVIATION CONCERN HAS ARISEN FROM THREAT OF STRONG
DOWNDRAFT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THREAT WILL STEADILY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNG AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS FROM FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION.
JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 14 HOURS WILL BE CIGS
DROPPING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KLBB AND KPVW AS THREAT OF
-SHRA/RA INCREASES AND TRANSITIONS TO -RASN THEN -SN OVERNIGHT.
VSBYS AT THESE LOCATIONS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES DURING BRIEF PERIODS OF /HEAVIER/ BANDS OF -SN.
MEANWHILE...OVER AT KCDS...EXPECTING PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS DESPITE PASSING -SHRA.

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO INCREASING WINDS IN WAKE
OF PRECIPITATION TUE MORNG. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO
40KTS AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNG THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. JH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT LIFT IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TX
PANHANDLE AT 4 PM. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET IS DIGGING INTO NRN NM
ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THE
JET WILL HELP DEEPEN THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH
WILL THEN SWING SEWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE FA WITH A
850MB TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND A 700 MB
LOW/TROUGH OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE
SOUTHWARD. QUITE A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS CAUGHT UP IN THIS
TROUGH AND SOME STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL. ALL OF THIS TO SAY
THAT THE SETUP LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS
MOST OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN QUITE
GENEROUS...RANGING FROM ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NORTH TO
MORE THAN A HALF INCH IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AND THIS
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN OUR NW ZONES WELL BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL END EARLY IN THAT AREA
AND THERE MAY NOT BE A LARGE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATION. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MORE OF THE INITIAL PRECIP WILL FALL AS
LIQUID...AND THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH WE ARE FAIRLY CERTAIN
THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A MIXTURE ON THE CAPROCK. OFF THE
CAPROCK...PRECIP IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH THE EVENT.
SO...AT THIS TIME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...AND WE HAVE FORECAST TOTALS RANGING FROM JUST SHY OF TWO
INCHES ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE...TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. THE RELATIVELY MILD SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES...AND MOST ROADWAYS COULD REMAIN PROBLEM FREE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LIFT AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR TEMPS TO
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FORECAST...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SOME
GREATER ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
.TO COVER THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
FROM SNOW.

AFTER THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END AROUND MIDDAY...WE WILL STILL HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
SPEEDS...BUT WILL BE GUSTING INTO THE 40S MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKS SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR COORDINATION WITH THIS EVENT.

LONG TERM...
CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW SHEARS OUT LATE TUE WITH ONE LAST PIECE
OF JET ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH
ACROSS CENTRAL TX. PRIMARY FORCING WITH TRAILING SHORTWV SHOULD BE
WELL EAST OF THE TX PNHDL/ROLLING PLAINS WITH BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS
HANGING IN ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CHRISTMAS DAY WHEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LEAD ENERGY
SPLITTING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SFC
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT
GRADIENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS /20-30
MPH/ CHRISTMAS DAY. H8 THERMAL RIDGING OF 12-14C COMBINED WITH
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 60S SO
SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY BLDU IN
THE GRIDS ATTM AS TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
WITH SYSTEM YET TO ENTER THE CONUS U/A NETWORK.

STILL MAJORITY OF MED RANGE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A LONGWV TROUGH
VCNTY THE ROCKIES BY LATE CHRISTMAS DAY. FROM THAT POINT ON THEIR
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL TRY TO HANG BACK
ACROSS THE DESERT SW AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE DEVELOPING SHORTWV OVER AZ/NM HAS
RAMIFICATIONS COME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. A STRONG CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS SHOULD MAKE GOOD HEADWAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FRI
SETTING UP THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN AS THE
STORM SYSTEM OUT WEST ARRIVES. AS A RESULT HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHC
POPS FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS. ECMWF AND CANADIAN REMAIN STRONGER WITH SOUTHERN
SPLIT SYSTEM AND ALSO MUCH COLDER WITH SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SLIDING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT ANY RATE SAT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST
DAY OF THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD. RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS MORE WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS FOR FRI INDICATES EQUALLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM SO POPS LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED MANY TIME BEFORE THEN.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  39  20  46  25 /  80  10  10   0   0
TULIA         31  40  25  46  28 /  70  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     31  42  26  46  29 /  80  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  43  26  47  29 /  80  20   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       31  44  28  48  30 /  80  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   31  44  26  47  30 /  70  30   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    31  43  28  47  30 /  80  20   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  48  33  49  30 /  30  10  10  10   0
SPUR          34  46  31  48  32 /  80  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     37  49  34  51  32 /  80  30  10   0   0
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021-022-027>029-033>035-039-040.
&&

$$

02
222
FXUS64 KLUB 230026
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
626 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 14 HOURS WILL BE CIGS
DROPPING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KLBB AND KPVW AS THREAT OF
-SHRA/RA INCREASES AND TRANSITIONS TO -RASN THEN -SN OVERNIGHT.
VSBYS AT THESE LOCATIONS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES DURING BRIEF PERIODS OF /HEAVIER/ BANDS OF -SN.
MEANWHILE...OVER AT KCDS...EXPECTING PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS DESPITE PASSING -SHRA.

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO INCREASING WINDS IN WAKE
OF PRECIPITATION TUE MORNG. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO
40KTS AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNG THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT LIFT IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TX
PANHANDLE AT 4 PM. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET IS DIGGING INTO NRN NM
ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THE
JET WILL HELP DEEPEN THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH
WILL THEN SWING SEWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE FA WITH A
850MB TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND A 700 MB
LOW/TROUGH OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE
SOUTHWARD. QUITE A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS CAUGHT UP IN THIS
TROUGH AND SOME STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL. ALL OF THIS TO SAY
THAT THE SETUP LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS
MOST OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN QUITE
GENEROUS...RANGING FROM ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NORTH TO
MORE THAN A HALF INCH IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AND THIS
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN OUR NW ZONES WELL BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL END EARLY IN THAT AREA
AND THERE MAY NOT BE A LARGE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATION. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MORE OF THE INITIAL PRECIP WILL FALL AS
LIQUID...AND THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH WE ARE FAIRLY CERTAIN
THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A MIXTURE ON THE CAPROCK. OFF THE
CAPROCK...PRECIP IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH THE EVENT.
SO...AT THIS TIME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...AND WE HAVE FORECAST TOTALS RANGING FROM JUST SHY OF TWO
INCHES ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE...TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. THE RELATIVELY MILD SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES...AND MOST ROADWAYS COULD REMAIN PROBLEM FREE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LIFT AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR TEMPS TO
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FORECAST...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SOME
GREATER ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
..TO COVER THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
FROM SNOW.

AFTER THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END AROUND MIDDAY...WE WILL STILL HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
SPEEDS...BUT WILL BE GUSTING INTO THE 40S MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKS SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR COORDINATION WITH THIS EVENT.

LONG TERM...
CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW SHEARS OUT LATE TUE WITH ONE LAST PIECE
OF JET ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH
ACROSS CENTRAL TX. PRIMARY FORCING WITH TRAILING SHORTWV SHOULD BE
WELL EAST OF THE TX PNHDL/ROLLING PLAINS WITH BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS
HANGING IN ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CHRISTMAS DAY WHEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LEAD ENERGY
SPLITTING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SFC
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT
GRADIENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS /20-30
MPH/ CHRISTMAS DAY. H8 THERMAL RIDGING OF 12-14C COMBINED WITH
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 60S SO
SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY BLDU IN
THE GRIDS ATTM AS TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
WITH SYSTEM YET TO ENTER THE CONUS U/A NETWORK.

STILL MAJORITY OF MED RANGE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A LONGWV TROUGH
VCNTY THE ROCKIES BY LATE CHRISTMAS DAY. FROM THAT POINT ON THEIR
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL TRY TO HANG BACK
ACROSS THE DESERT SW AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE DEVELOPING SHORTWV OVER AZ/NM HAS
RAMIFICATIONS COME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. A STRONG CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS SHOULD MAKE GOOD HEADWAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FRI
SETTING UP THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN AS THE
STORM SYSTEM OUT WEST ARRIVES. AS A RESULT HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHC
POPS FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS. ECMWF AND CANADIAN REMAIN STRONGER WITH SOUTHERN
SPLIT SYSTEM AND ALSO MUCH COLDER WITH SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SLIDING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT ANY RATE SAT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST
DAY OF THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD. RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS MORE WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS FOR FRI INDICATES EQUALLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM SO POPS LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED MANY TIME BEFORE THEN.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  39  20  46  25 /  80  10  10   0   0
TULIA         31  40  25  46  28 /  70  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     31  42  26  46  29 /  80  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  43  26  47  29 /  80  20   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       31  44  28  48  30 /  80  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   31  44  26  47  30 /  70  30   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    31  43  28  47  30 /  80  20   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  48  33  49  30 /  30  10  10  10   0
SPUR          34  46  31  48  32 /  80  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     37  49  34  51  32 /  80  30  10   0   0
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021-022-027>029-033>035-039-040.
&&

$$

02
686
FXUS64 KLUB 222217
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
417 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT LIFT IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TX
PANHANDLE AT 4 PM. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET IS DIGGING INTO NRN NM
ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THE
JET WILL HELP DEEPEN THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH
WILL THEN SWING SEWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE FA WITH A
850MB TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND A 700 MB
LOW/TROUGH OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE
SOUTHWARD. QUITE A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS CAUGHT UP IN THIS
TROUGH AND SOME STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL. ALL OF THIS TO SAY
THAT THE SETUP LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS
MOST OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN QUITE
GENEROUS...RANGING FROM ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NORTH TO
MORE THAN A HALF INCH IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AND THIS
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN OUR NW ZONES WELL BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL END EARLY IN THAT AREA
AND THERE MAY NOT BE A LARGE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATION. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MORE OF THE INITIAL PRECIP WILL FALL AS
LIQUID...AND THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH WE ARE FAIRLY CERTAIN
THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A MIXTURE ON THE CAPROCK. OFF THE
CAPROCK...PRECIP IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH THE EVENT.
SO...AT THIS TIME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...AND WE HAVE FORECAST TOTALS RANGING FROM JUST SHY OF TWO
INCHES ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE...TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. THE RELATIVELY MILD SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES...AND MOST ROADWAYS COULD REMAIN PROBLEM FREE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LIFT AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR TEMPS TO
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FORECAST...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SOME
GREATER ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
...TO COVER THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
FROM SNOW.

AFTER THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END AROUND MIDDAY...WE WILL STILL HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
SPEEDS...BUT WILL BE GUSTING INTO THE 40S MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKS SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR COORDINATION WITH THIS EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW SHEARS OUT LATE TUE WITH ONE LAST PIECE
OF JET ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH
ACROSS CENTRAL TX. PRIMARY FORCING WITH TRAILING SHORTWV SHOULD BE
WELL EAST OF THE TX PNHDL/ROLLING PLAINS WITH BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS
HANGING IN ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CHRISTMAS DAY WHEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LEAD ENERGY
SPLITTING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SFC
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT
GRADIENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS /20-30
MPH/ CHRISTMAS DAY. H8 THERMAL RIDGING OF 12-14C COMBINED WITH
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 60S SO
SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY BLDU IN
THE GRIDS ATTM AS TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
WITH SYSTEM YET TO ENTER THE CONUS U/A NETWORK.

STILL MAJORITY OF MED RANGE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A LONGWV TROUGH
VCNTY THE ROCKIES BY LATE CHRISTMAS DAY. FROM THAT POINT ON THEIR
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL TRY TO HANG BACK
ACROSS THE DESERT SW AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE DEVELOPING SHORTWV OVER AZ/NM HAS
RAMIFICATIONS COME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. A STRONG CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS SHOULD MAKE GOOD HEADWAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FRI
SETTING UP THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN AS THE
STORM SYSTEM OUT WEST ARRIVES. AS A RESULT HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHC
POPS FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS. ECMWF AND CANADIAN REMAIN STRONGER WITH SOUTHERN
SPLIT SYSTEM AND ALSO MUCH COLDER WITH SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SLIDING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT ANY RATE SAT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST
DAY OF THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD. RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS MORE WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS FOR FRI INDICATES EQUALLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM SO POPS LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED MANY TIME BEFORE THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  39  20  46  25 /  80  10  10   0   0
TULIA         31  40  25  46  28 /  70  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     31  42  26  46  29 /  80  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  43  26  47  29 /  80  20   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       31  44  28  48  30 /  80  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   31  44  26  47  30 /  70  30   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    31  43  28  47  30 /  80  20   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  48  33  49  30 /  30  10  10  10   0
SPUR          34  46  31  48  32 /  80  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     37  49  34  51  32 /  80  30  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021-022-027>029-033>035-039-040.

&&

$$

33/24
783
FXUS64 KLUB 221747
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...
AVIATION CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND TIMING THE ONSET OF PRECIP
TONIGHT...AS WELL AS THE DURATION OF CEILING AND POSSIBLY VSBY
REDUCTIONS AT KLBB AND KPVW. KCDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW IMPACT -SHRA. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT BOTH KPVW AND KLBB
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SOME IFR CONDITIONS OF SHORTER
DURATION. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT THESE TERMINALS...WHICH COULD WARRANT AN
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING AT KLBB. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY
BETWEEN 12 UTC AND 14 UTC WITH VFR RETURNING.

IN ADDITION...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING AND MAY BECOME SUSTAINED AROUND 25 KTS BY MID-DAY
AT KLBB AND KPVW...SLIGHTLY LOWER AT KCDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE MADE SEVERAL SMALL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY...LOWERING HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY...AND ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NRN AND WRN ZONES FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

WE HAVE NOT YET MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING
PERIODS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS STILL INDICATING A SWATH OF
HEALTHY QPF /FROM ABOUT A QUARTER TO NEARLY A HALF INCH/ TRACKING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
STICKING POINT WITH REGARDS TO SNOW POTENTIAL REMAINS THE NEAR-
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR 30-32F DURING
THE TIME PRECIP FALLS. TEMPS AROUND FREEZING WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT
AND IMPACT OF SNOWFALL AS MUCH OF IT MELTS ON IMPACT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG LIFT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...WE REMAIN CONCERNED
THAT DYNAMIC COOLING AND IMPRESSIVE PRECIP RATES COULD OVERCOME
THE WARM NEAR-SURFACE TEMPS AND LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THIS
THREAT MAY END UP BEING MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR
THE MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE TRENDS WITH
AN EYE TOWARD A POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR TODAY WITH MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE BY EARLY TUE MORNING. WEAK
COLD FROPA FROM NEAR TCC-CDS AT 1130Z WILL BRING 15-20 KNOT NLY
WINDS TO THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING BEFORE SPEEDS SCALE BACK IN
THE AFTERNOON.

DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM BY TONIGHT SPELLS GOOD CHANCES FOR RA AT
LBB AND PVW BEFORE COLDER AIR AFTER 06Z THREATENS TO CHANGE THIS
OVER TO SN. COULD SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 INCH OR LESS WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FAVORING PVW. CIGS SHOULD ALSO LOWER OVERNIGHT-
BUT LIKE THE SNOW THREAT...THE WINDOW FOR MVFR AND IFR DOESN/T
OPEN UNTIL VERY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...SO NO EXPLICIT TAF
MENTION WILL BE MADE FOR EITHER ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SURFACE MAP AT 09Z FEATURED A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WITH A SEMI-AMBIGUOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING THE TX
PANHANDLE FROM ABOUT MEMPHIS NW TO DALHART AHEAD OF WEAK PRESSURE
RISES. THIS FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH THIS MORNING UNDER STRONGER
CYCLONIC NW FLOW BEFORE EXITING OUR CWA BEFORE NOON...HOWEVER WITH
THE UNUSUALLY MILD START TO THE MORNING TEMPS TODAY WON/T HAVE MUCH
TROUBLE ENDING ABOVE CLIMO ONCE AGAIN.

FORECAST CHALLENGES RAMP UP TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE A.M. AS MEAN
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SHARPENS AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF
AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IN KS/NE. THIS PROCESS WILL ENCOURAGE HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS OUR REGION NEAR SUNSET BEFORE PEAKING OVERNIGHT. ADD TO
THIS A LONG FETCH OF MID-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDING BACK TO
THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE STAGE LOOKS SET FOR AGGRESSIVE TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING AND EVENTUALLY PRECIP. MODELS AGREE THAT THE GREATEST
FOCUS FOR ASCENT IS TIED TO FN FORCING ALONG THE SLOPING FRONTAL
LAYER FROM 850-600 MB...SO MUCH SO THAT A 700MB WAVE/BRIEF LOW GENS
UP BY 06Z. UPPER JET SUPPORT IS ALMOST NIL...SO LIFT AS A WHOLE WILL
BE CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE WHICH IS GOOD
NEWS FOR POPS. NUDGED POPS UP TO 70 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE CAPROCK
OVERNIGHT AS THE BEST FN FORCING IS FOCUSED OVER THIS REGION FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. WPC QPF MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF GIVEN THE LONGER
RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS LIFT COMBINED WITH ENHANCED PRECIP RATES NEAR
THE AFOREMENTIONED 700MB WAVE.

WE/VE HAD BIGGER HEADACHES FORECASTING PRECIP PHASES BEFORE...BUT
THIS EVENT LOOKS MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
OVER TIME. DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF THIS TRANSITION LINE IS STILL
A BLACK ART...BUT THE 00Z MODEL TEMP PROFILES FAVOR SNOW IN OUR FAR
NWRN COUNTIES BY 03Z WITH A STEADY EXPANSION S-SE THRU 12Z. AREAS
OFF THE CAPROCK SHOW LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO ERADICATE THEIR DEEP
MELTING LAYER OF NEARLY 4K FEET THICK...SO ALL RAIN REMAINS THE
FORECAST FOR OUR ERN ZONES. ON THE CAPROCK...MARGINAL 2M AND GROUND
TEMPS POSE A PROBLEM FOR SNOW ACCUMS AS NO TRULY COLD AIR IS EVIDENT
UPSTREAM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN EASILY
COMPENSATE FOR THESE MARGINAL TEMPS AND YIELD SNOW ACCUMS. SUCH IS
THE CASE IN THIS SETUP AS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOCUS THE STEEPEST LAPSE
RATES DIRECTLY IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. STILL...WE/RE KEEPING
SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 INCH OR LESS GIVEN OVERWHELMING SUPPORT FOR THESE
TOTALS FROM SREF PLUME DATA. GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR AN INCH STILL
FAVORS OUR NWRN ZONES WHERE LL TEMPS WILL BE LESS MARGINAL AND THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SATURATION IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE THE DEEPEST.

LONG TERM...
SNOW/PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO A FAIRLY QUICK END TUESDAY MORNING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE TROF AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
MODELS STILL TRY TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION AFTER 18Z AS A
SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE MAIN
SYSTEM...HOWEVER ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO RAMP A NORTH WIND UP INTO THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE MAKING IT FEEL RATHER BRISK. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA MAKES IT INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO A WESTERLY SURFACE WIND AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
CHRISTMAS DAY STILL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN IN HOW STRONG WIND
SPEEDS WILL BECOME DURING THE DAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
DECREASING WIND SPEEDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS AS WE HAVE GONE
THROUGH THE FULL RANGE OF SOLUTIONS...CLOSED LOW...OPEN
WAVE...ZONAL FLOW...AND NOW BACK TRENDING TOWARDS AN APPROACHING
WAVE. REGARDLESS...CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POSSIBLE WAVE MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK 15 DEGREES AND TO
NEAR NORMAL AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY DROPPING A BIT MORE INTO UPPER
40S BEFORE WARMING SOME FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF IS HINTING AT SOME
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY BUT ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO
BE TOO DRY FOR ANY OF THIS TO REACH THE GROUND AND LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  27  38  21  50 /  20  70  10   0   0
TULIA         53  31  41  27  49 /  10  70  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     55  31  42  26  50 /  10  70  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     59  30  43  27  49 /  10  70  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       59  31  43  28  50 /  10  70  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   63  31  44  27  49 /  10  60  20   0   0
BROWNFIELD    62  31  44  29  50 /  10  70  20   0   0
CHILDRESS     61  34  47  33  50 /  10  30  10  10   0
SPUR          62  34  47  32  51 /   0  70  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     63  36  50  35  51 /   0  60  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/24
897
FXUS64 KLUB 221658
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1058 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE MADE SEVERAL SMALL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY...LOWERING HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY...AND ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NRN AND WRN ZONES FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

WE HAVE NOT YET MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING
PERIODS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS STILL INDICATING A SWATH OF
HEALTHY QPF /FROM ABOUT A QUARTER TO NEARLY A HALF INCH/ TRACKING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
STICKING POINT WITH REGARDS TO SNOW POTENTIAL REMAINS THE NEAR-
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR 30-32F DURING
THE TIME PRECIP FALLS. TEMPS AROUND FREEZING WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT
AND IMPACT OF SNOWFALL AS MUCH OF IT MELTS ON IMPACT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG LIFT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...WE REMAIN CONCERNED
THAT DYNAMIC COOLING AND IMPRESSIVE PRECIP RATES COULD OVERCOME
THE WARM NEAR-SURFACE TEMPS AND LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THIS
THREAT MAY END UP BEING MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR
THE MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE TRENDS WITH
AN EYE TOWARD A POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR TODAY WITH MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE BY EARLY TUE MORNING. WEAK
COLD FROPA FROM NEAR TCC-CDS AT 1130Z WILL BRING 15-20 KNOT NLY
WINDS TO THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING BEFORE SPEEDS SCALE BACK IN
THE AFTERNOON.

DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM BY TONIGHT SPELLS GOOD CHANCES FOR RA AT
LBB AND PVW BEFORE COLDER AIR AFTER 06Z THREATENS TO CHANGE THIS
OVER TO SN. COULD SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 INCH OR LESS WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FAVORING PVW. CIGS SHOULD ALSO LOWER OVERNIGHT-
BUT LIKE THE SNOW THREAT...THE WINDOW FOR MVFR AND IFR DOESN/T
OPEN UNTIL VERY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...SO NO EXPLICIT TAF
MENTION WILL BE MADE FOR EITHER ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SURFACE MAP AT 09Z FEATURED A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WITH A SEMI-AMBIGUOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING THE TX
PANHANDLE FROM ABOUT MEMPHIS NW TO DALHART AHEAD OF WEAK PRESSURE
RISES. THIS FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH THIS MORNING UNDER STRONGER
CYCLONIC NW FLOW BEFORE EXITING OUR CWA BEFORE NOON...HOWEVER WITH
THE UNUSUALLY MILD START TO THE MORNING TEMPS TODAY WON/T HAVE MUCH
TROUBLE ENDING ABOVE CLIMO ONCE AGAIN.

FORECAST CHALLENGES RAMP UP TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE A.M. AS MEAN
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SHARPENS AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF
AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IN KS/NE. THIS PROCESS WILL ENCOURAGE HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS OUR REGION NEAR SUNSET BEFORE PEAKING OVERNIGHT. ADD TO
THIS A LONG FETCH OF MID-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDING BACK TO
THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE STAGE LOOKS SET FOR AGGRESSIVE TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING AND EVENTUALLY PRECIP. MODELS AGREE THAT THE GREATEST
FOCUS FOR ASCENT IS TIED TO FN FORCING ALONG THE SLOPING FRONTAL
LAYER FROM 850-600 MB...SO MUCH SO THAT A 700MB WAVE/BRIEF LOW GENS
UP BY 06Z. UPPER JET SUPPORT IS ALMOST NIL...SO LIFT AS A WHOLE WILL
BE CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE WHICH IS GOOD
NEWS FOR POPS. NUDGED POPS UP TO 70 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE CAPROCK
OVERNIGHT AS THE BEST FN FORCING IS FOCUSED OVER THIS REGION FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. WPC QPF MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF GIVEN THE LONGER
RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS LIFT COMBINED WITH ENHANCED PRECIP RATES NEAR
THE AFOREMENTIONED 700MB WAVE.

WE/VE HAD BIGGER HEADACHES FORECASTING PRECIP PHASES BEFORE...BUT
THIS EVENT LOOKS MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
OVER TIME. DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF THIS TRANSITION LINE IS STILL
A BLACK ART...BUT THE 00Z MODEL TEMP PROFILES FAVOR SNOW IN OUR FAR
NWRN COUNTIES BY 03Z WITH A STEADY EXPANSION S-SE THRU 12Z. AREAS
OFF THE CAPROCK SHOW LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO ERADICATE THEIR DEEP
MELTING LAYER OF NEARLY 4K FEET THICK...SO ALL RAIN REMAINS THE
FORECAST FOR OUR ERN ZONES. ON THE CAPROCK...MARGINAL 2M AND GROUND
TEMPS POSE A PROBLEM FOR SNOW ACCUMS AS NO TRULY COLD AIR IS EVIDENT
UPSTREAM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN EASILY
COMPENSATE FOR THESE MARGINAL TEMPS AND YIELD SNOW ACCUMS. SUCH IS
THE CASE IN THIS SETUP AS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOCUS THE STEEPEST LAPSE
RATES DIRECTLY IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. STILL...WE/RE KEEPING
SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 INCH OR LESS GIVEN OVERWHELMING SUPPORT FOR THESE
TOTALS FROM SREF PLUME DATA. GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR AN INCH STILL
FAVORS OUR NWRN ZONES WHERE LL TEMPS WILL BE LESS MARGINAL AND THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SATURATION IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE THE DEEPEST.

LONG TERM...
SNOW/PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO A FAIRLY QUICK END TUESDAY MORNING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE TROF AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
MODELS STILL TRY TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION AFTER 18Z AS A
SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE MAIN
SYSTEM...HOWEVER ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO RAMP A NORTH WIND UP INTO THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE MAKING IT FEEL RATHER BRISK. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA MAKES IT INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO A WESTERLY SURFACE WIND AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
CHRISTMAS DAY STILL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN IN HOW STRONG WIND
SPEEDS WILL BECOME DURING THE DAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
DECREASING WIND SPEEDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS AS WE HAVE GONE
THROUGH THE FULL RANGE OF SOLUTIONS...CLOSED LOW...OPEN
WAVE...ZONAL FLOW...AND NOW BACK TRENDING TOWARDS AN APPROACHING
WAVE. REGARDLESS...CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POSSIBLE WAVE MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK 15 DEGREES AND TO
NEAR NORMAL AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY DROPPING A BIT MORE INTO UPPER
40S BEFORE WARMING SOME FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF IS HINTING AT SOME
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY BUT ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO
BE TOO DRY FOR ANY OF THIS TO REACH THE GROUND AND LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  27  38  21  50 /  20  70  10   0   0
TULIA         53  31  41  27  49 /  10  70  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     55  31  42  26  50 /  10  70  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     59  30  43  27  49 /  10  70  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       59  31  43  28  50 /  10  70  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   63  31  44  27  49 /  10  60  20   0   0
BROWNFIELD    62  31  44  29  50 /  10  70  20   0   0
CHILDRESS     61  34  47  33  50 /  10  30  10  10   0
SPUR          62  34  47  32  51 /   0  70  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     63  36  50  35  51 /   0  60  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/24
184
FXUS64 KLUB 221148
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
548 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR TODAY WITH MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE BY EARLY TUE MORNING. WEAK
COLD FROPA FROM NEAR TCC-CDS AT 1130Z WILL BRING 15-20 KNOT NLY
WINDS TO THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING BEFORE SPEEDS SCALE BACK IN
THE AFTERNOON.

DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM BY TONIGHT SPELLS GOOD CHANCES FOR RA AT
LBB AND PVW BEFORE COLDER AIR AFTER 06Z THREATENS TO CHANGE THIS
OVER TO SN. COULD SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 INCH OR LESS WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FAVORING PVW. CIGS SHOULD ALSO LOWER OVERNIGHT-
BUT LIKE THE SNOW THREAT...THE WINDOW FOR MVFR AND IFR DOESN/T
OPEN UNTIL VERY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...SO NO EXPLICIT TAF
MENTION WILL BE MADE FOR EITHER ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SURFACE MAP AT 09Z FEATURED A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WITH A SEMI-AMBIGUOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING THE TX
PANHANDLE FROM ABOUT MEMPHIS NW TO DALHART AHEAD OF WEAK PRESSURE
RISES. THIS FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH THIS MORNING UNDER STRONGER
CYCLONIC NW FLOW BEFORE EXITING OUR CWA BEFORE NOON...HOWEVER WITH
THE UNUSUALLY MILD START TO THE MORNING TEMPS TODAY WON/T HAVE MUCH
TROUBLE ENDING ABOVE CLIMO ONCE AGAIN.

FORECAST CHALLENGES RAMP UP TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE A.M. AS MEAN
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SHARPENS AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF
AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IN KS/NE. THIS PROCESS WILL ENCOURAGE HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS OUR REGION NEAR SUNSET BEFORE PEAKING OVERNIGHT. ADD TO
THIS A LONG FETCH OF MID-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDING BACK TO
THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE STAGE LOOKS SET FOR AGGRESSIVE TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING AND EVENTUALLY PRECIP. MODELS AGREE THAT THE GREATEST
FOCUS FOR ASCENT IS TIED TO FN FORCING ALONG THE SLOPING FRONTAL
LAYER FROM 850-600 MB...SO MUCH SO THAT A 700MB WAVE/BRIEF LOW GENS
UP BY 06Z. UPPER JET SUPPORT IS ALMOST NIL...SO LIFT AS A WHOLE WILL
BE CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE WHICH IS GOOD
NEWS FOR POPS. NUDGED POPS UP TO 70 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE CAPROCK
OVERNIGHT AS THE BEST FN FORCING IS FOCUSED OVER THIS REGION FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. WPC QPF MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF GIVEN THE LONGER
RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS LIFT COMBINED WITH ENHANCED PRECIP RATES NEAR
THE AFOREMENTIONED 700MB WAVE.

WE/VE HAD BIGGER HEADACHES FORECASTING PRECIP PHASES BEFORE...BUT
THIS EVENT LOOKS MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
OVER TIME. DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF THIS TRANSITION LINE IS STILL
A BLACK ART...BUT THE 00Z MODEL TEMP PROFILES FAVOR SNOW IN OUR FAR
NWRN COUNTIES BY 03Z WITH A STEADY EXPANSION S-SE THRU 12Z. AREAS
OFF THE CAPROCK SHOW LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO ERADICATE THEIR DEEP
MELTING LAYER OF NEARLY 4K FEET THICK...SO ALL RAIN REMAINS THE
FORECAST FOR OUR ERN ZONES. ON THE CAPROCK...MARGINAL 2M AND GROUND
TEMPS POSE A PROBLEM FOR SNOW ACCUMS AS NO TRULY COLD AIR IS EVIDENT
UPSTREAM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN EASILY
COMPENSATE FOR THESE MARGINAL TEMPS AND YIELD SNOW ACCUMS. SUCH IS
THE CASE IN THIS SETUP AS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOCUS THE STEEPEST LAPSE
RATES DIRECTLY IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. STILL...WE/RE KEEPING
SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 INCH OR LESS GIVEN OVERWHELMING SUPPORT FOR THESE
TOTALS FROM SREF PLUME DATA. GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR AN INCH STILL
FAVORS OUR NWRN ZONES WHERE LL TEMPS WILL BE LESS MARGINAL AND THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SATURATION IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE THE DEEPEST.

LONG TERM...
SNOW/PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO A FAIRLY QUICK END TUESDAY MORNING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE TROF AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
MODELS STILL TRY TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION AFTER 18Z AS A
SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE MAIN
SYSTEM...HOWEVER ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO RAMP A NORTH WIND UP INTO THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE MAKING IT FEEL RATHER BRISK. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA MAKES IT INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO A WESTERLY SURFACE WIND AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
CHRISTMAS DAY STILL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN IN HOW STRONG WIND
SPEEDS WILL BECOME DURING THE DAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
DECREASING WIND SPEEDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS AS WE HAVE GONE
THROUGH THE FULL RANGE OF SOLUTIONS...CLOSED LOW...OPEN
WAVE...ZONAL FLOW...AND NOW BACK TRENDING TOWARDS AN APPROACHING
WAVE. REGARDLESS...CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POSSIBLE WAVE MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK 15 DEGREES AND TO
NEAR NORMAL AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY DROPPING A BIT MORE INTO UPPER
40S BEFORE WARMING SOME FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF IS HINTING AT SOME
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY BUT ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO
BE TOO DRY FOR ANY OF THIS TO REACH THE GROUND AND LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$

93/14/93
646
FXUS64 KLUB 221035
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
435 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE MAP AT 09Z FEATURED A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WITH A SEMI-AMBIGUOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING THE TX
PANHANDLE FROM ABOUT MEMPHIS NW TO DALHART AHEAD OF WEAK PRESSURE
RISES. THIS FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH THIS MORNING UNDER STRONGER
CYCLONIC NW FLOW BEFORE EXITING OUR CWA BEFORE NOON...HOWEVER WITH
THE UNUSUALLY MILD START TO THE MORNING TEMPS TODAY WON/T HAVE MUCH
TROUBLE ENDING ABOVE CLIMO ONCE AGAIN.

FORECAST CHALLENGES RAMP UP TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE A.M. AS MEAN
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SHARPENS AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF
AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IN KS/NE. THIS PROCESS WILL ENCOURAGE HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS OUR REGION NEAR SUNSET BEFORE PEAKING OVERNIGHT. ADD TO
THIS A LONG FETCH OF MID-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDING BACK TO
THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE STAGE LOOKS SET FOR AGGRESSIVE TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING AND EVENTUALLY PRECIP. MODELS AGREE THAT THE GREATEST
FOCUS FOR ASCENT IS TIED TO FN FORCING ALONG THE SLOPING FRONTAL
LAYER FROM 850-600 MB...SO MUCH SO THAT A 700MB WAVE/BRIEF LOW GENS
UP BY 06Z. UPPER JET SUPPORT IS ALMOST NIL...SO LIFT AS A WHOLE WILL
BE CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE WHICH IS GOOD
NEWS FOR POPS. NUDGED POPS UP TO 70 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE CAPROCK
OVERNIGHT AS THE BEST FN FORCING IS FOCUSED OVER THIS REGION FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. WPC QPF MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF GIVEN THE LONGER
RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS LIFT COMBINED WITH ENHANCED PRECIP RATES NEAR
THE AFOREMENTIONED 700MB WAVE.

WE/VE HAD BIGGER HEADACHES FORECASTING PRECIP PHASES BEFORE...BUT
THIS EVENT LOOKS MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
OVER TIME. DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF THIS TRANSITION LINE IS STILL
A BLACK ART...BUT THE 00Z MODEL TEMP PROFILES FAVOR SNOW IN OUR FAR
NWRN COUNTIES BY 03Z WITH A STEADY EXPANSION S-SE THRU 12Z. AREAS
OFF THE CAPROCK SHOW LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO ERADICATE THEIR DEEP
MELTING LAYER OF NEARLY 4K FEET THICK...SO ALL RAIN REMAINS THE
FORECAST FOR OUR ERN ZONES. ON THE CAPROCK...MARGINAL 2M AND GROUND
TEMPS POSE A PROBLEM FOR SNOW ACCUMS AS NO TRULY COLD AIR IS EVIDENT
UPSTREAM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN EASILY
COMPENSATE FOR THESE MARGINAL TEMPS AND YIELD SNOW ACCUMS. SUCH IS
THE CASE IN THIS SETUP AS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOCUS THE STEEPEST LAPSE
RATES DIRECTLY IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. STILL...WE/RE KEEPING
SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 INCH OR LESS GIVEN OVERWHELMING SUPPORT FOR THESE
TOTALS FROM SREF PLUME DATA. GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR AN INCH STILL
FAVORS OUR NWRN ZONES WHERE LL TEMPS WILL BE LESS MARGINAL AND THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SATURATION IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE THE DEEPEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SNOW/PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO A FAIRLY QUICK END TUESDAY MORNING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE TROF AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
MODELS STILL TRY TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION AFTER 18Z AS A
SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE MAIN
SYSTEM...HOWEVER ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO RAMP A NORTH WIND UP INTO THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE MAKING IT FEEL RATHER BRISK. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA MAKES IT INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO A WESTERLY SURFACE WIND AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
CHRISTMAS DAY STILL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN IN HOW STRONG WIND
SPEEDS WILL BECOME DURING THE DAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
DECREASING WIND SPEEDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS AS WE HAVE GONE
THROUGH THE FULL RANGE OF SOLUTIONS...CLOSED LOW...OPEN
WAVE...ZONAL FLOW...AND NOW BACK TRENDING TOWARDS AN APPROACHING
WAVE. REGARDLESS...CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POSSIBLE WAVE MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK 15 DEGREES AND TO
NEAR NORMAL AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY DROPPING A BIT MORE INTO UPPER
40S BEFORE WARMING SOME FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF IS HINTING AT SOME
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY BUT ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO
BE TOO DRY FOR ANY OF THIS TO REACH THE GROUND AND LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  27  38  21  50 /  10  70  10   0   0
TULIA         54  31  41  27  49 /  10  70  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     56  31  42  26  50 /   0  70  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     61  30  43  27  49 /   0  70  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       60  31  43  28  50 /   0  70  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  31  44  27  49 /   0  60  20   0   0
BROWNFIELD    64  31  44  29  50 /   0  70  20   0   0
CHILDRESS     63  34  47  33  50 /   0  30  10  10   0
SPUR          63  34  47  32  51 /   0  70  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     64  36  50  35  51 /   0  60  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14
670
FXUS64 KLUB 220526
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1126 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY EVENING. SOME STRATUS BUILDING INTO
THE ERN PANHANDLE LATE THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECTATION IS IT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH AND NE OF KCDS. OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA BY 18Z WITH WINDS VEERING TO
NORTH. HOWEVER...STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SPEEDS AROUND 15KTS AND GUSTY AT TIMES FROM
THE WEST AND NW...THE EXCEPTION BEING KCDS WHICH IS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW ITSELF AND WILL THUS SEE LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR STRATUS HAS WORKED ITS WAY ABOUT SIXTY MILES EAST OF KCDS.
A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY COMPONENT COULD BRING THAT CLOUD COVER TOWARD
KCDS...BUT THINK THAT ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT
WILL HOLD ON VCNTY OF KCDS TO KEEP THAT TERMINAL VFR. NO SIMILAR
CONCERN FOR KPVW OR KLBB EACH OF WHICH SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
MONDAY AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AS A
VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST. THIS ENERGY WILL HELP SHARPEN THE TROUGH AND CLOSE OFF A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. IN
THE MEANTIME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP DEEPEN A SURFACE TROUGH AND MOVE IT
EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP KEEP WINDS MIXED AND
COMBINED WITH ADVANCING CIRRUS RESULT IN RELATIVELY MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT STRATUS AND FOG
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH OR WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING
VICINITY THE RED RIVER. SOME FOG MAY FORM VERY NEAR THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA AS A RESULT BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS WELL EAST BY DAWN.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE TROUGH AS A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE PLAINS MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY TEMPORARILY
MIX TO THE SURFACE EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AS A LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE ALLOWS TEMPS TO QUICKLY WARM
THERE. MEANWHILE H8 COLD ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD CREATE A
GOOD N/S TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. ANY FORCING FOR ASCENT THAT BEGINS TO
SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE OR NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS LATE IN
THE DAY WILL BE BATTLING RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS SO DID NOT INCLUDE
ANY DAYTIME POPS OF NOTE.

LONG TERM...
THE SHARP TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MID-DAY TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STRONG LIFT
SPREADING OVER OUR NW COUNTIES MONDAY EVENING. MUCH OF THE INITIAL
LIFT WILL GO TOWARD MOISTENING AND COOLING THE COLUMN...BUT LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 7 PM OR SO. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY BEGIN TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS
EARLY AS 9 PM IN THE SW TX PANHANDLE AND BY MIDNIGHT WE COULD SEE
SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AS THE TRANSITION ZONE
ADVANCES SEWD. FORECAST X-SECTIONS SHOW A PERIOD OF STRONG LIFT IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ALTHOUGH THE CROSSOVER BETWEEN LIFT AND
SATURATION SHOULD BE NARROW. WITH SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE REALIZED. SREF MEANS ARE ON THE
ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO INCH WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
PRESENT IN THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS. QPF FIELDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SPLNS IF TEMPS ARE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT...HOPEFULLY LATER RUNS WILL IMPROVE CLARITY
WITH TEMPS. AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT PRECIP AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OFF
THE CAPROCK TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO FREEZING THAT A LIGHT MIX CAN/T BE RULED OUT.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IN THE HWO AND THE POSSIBILITY IT COULD IMPACT THE
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE AROUND LUBBOCK.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN. THE GFS
MOS GUIDANCE GIVES US POSSIBLE ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS. WE WILL KEEP
THE WIND SPEED JUST SHY OF ADVISORY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
CLOUD COVER. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE BLUSTERY ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND WIND CHILLS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S
ACROSS ALL BUT THE SE.

WE HAVE TAKEN TEMPS DOWN A NOTCH ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE
COOL NW FLOW WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER. SE BREEZES WILL RETURN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS A SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE NEXT FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ANOTHER COLD SURGE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. TEMPS LOOK TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THAT PERIOD BUT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
SLIM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        35  52  24  40  18 /   0  10  60   0   0
TULIA         35  52  26  40  22 /   0  10  50   0   0
PLAINVIEW     36  55  28  41  24 /   0  10  60  10   0
LEVELLAND     39  60  28  43  23 /   0  10  60  10   0
LUBBOCK       39  59  30  43  25 /   0  10  60  10   0
DENVER CITY   43  67  30  45  25 /   0  10  50  20   0
BROWNFIELD    41  65  30  44  25 /   0  10  50  10   0
CHILDRESS     41  58  34  47  30 /   0   0  20  10   0
SPUR          41  61  33  47  28 /   0   0  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     43  65  37  50  30 /   0   0  40  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
003
FXUS64 KLUB 212319
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
519 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR STRATUS HAS WORKED ITS WAY ABOUT SIXTY MILES EAST OF KCDS.
A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY COMPONENT COULD BRING THAT CLOUD COVER TOWARD
KCDS...BUT THINK THAT ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT
WILL HOLD ON VCNTY OF KCDS TO KEEP THAT TERMINAL VFR. NO SIMILAR
CONCERN FOR KPVW OR KLBB EACH OF WHICH SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
MONDAY AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AS A
VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST. THIS ENERGY WILL HELP SHARPEN THE TROUGH AND CLOSE OFF A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. IN
THE MEANTIME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP DEEPEN A SURFACE TROUGH AND MOVE IT
EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP KEEP WINDS MIXED AND
COMBINED WITH ADVANCING CIRRUS RESULT IN RELATIVELY MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT STRATUS AND FOG
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH OR WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING
VICINITY THE RED RIVER. SOME FOG MAY FORM VERY NEAR THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA AS A RESULT BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS WELL EAST BY DAWN.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE TROUGH AS A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE PLAINS MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY TEMPORARILY
MIX TO THE SURFACE EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AS A LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE ALLOWS TEMPS TO QUICKLY WARM
THERE. MEANWHILE H8 COLD ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD CREATE A
GOOD N/S TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. ANY FORCING FOR ASCENT THAT BEGINS TO
SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE OR NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS LATE IN
THE DAY WILL BE BATTLING RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS SO DID NOT INCLUDE
ANY DAYTIME POPS OF NOTE.

LONG TERM...
THE SHARP TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MID-DAY TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STRONG LIFT
SPREADING OVER OUR NW COUNTIES MONDAY EVENING. MUCH OF THE INITIAL
LIFT WILL GO TOWARD MOISTENING AND COOLING THE COLUMN...BUT LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 7 PM OR SO. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY BEGIN TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS
EARLY AS 9 PM IN THE SW TX PANHANDLE AND BY MIDNIGHT WE COULD SEE
SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AS THE TRANSITION ZONE
ADVANCES SEWD. FORECAST X-SECTIONS SHOW A PERIOD OF STRONG LIFT IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ALTHOUGH THE CROSSOVER BETWEEN LIFT AND
SATURATION SHOULD BE NARROW. WITH SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE REALIZED. SREF MEANS ARE ON THE
ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO INCH WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
PRESENT IN THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS. QPF FIELDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SPLNS IF TEMPS ARE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT...HOPEFULLY LATER RUNS WILL IMPROVE CLARITY
WITH TEMPS. AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT PRECIP AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OFF
THE CAPROCK TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO FREEZING THAT A LIGHT MIX CAN/T BE RULED OUT.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IN THE HWO AND THE POSSIBILITY IT COULD IMPACT THE
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE AROUND LUBBOCK.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN. THE GFS
MOS GUIDANCE GIVES US POSSIBLE ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS. WE WILL KEEP
THE WIND SPEED JUST SHY OF ADVISORY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
CLOUD COVER. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE BLUSTERY ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND WIND CHILLS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S
ACROSS ALL BUT THE SE.

WE HAVE TAKEN TEMPS DOWN A NOTCH ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE
COOL NW FLOW WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER. SE BREEZES WILL RETURN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS A SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE NEXT FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ANOTHER COLD SURGE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. TEMPS LOOK TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THAT PERIOD BUT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
SLIM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        35  52  24  40  18 /   0  10  60   0   0
TULIA         35  52  26  40  22 /   0  10  50   0   0
PLAINVIEW     36  55  28  41  24 /   0  10  60  10   0
LEVELLAND     39  60  28  43  23 /   0  10  60  10   0
LUBBOCK       39  59  30  43  25 /   0  10  60  10   0
DENVER CITY   43  67  30  45  25 /   0  10  50  20   0
BROWNFIELD    41  65  30  44  25 /   0  10  50  10   0
CHILDRESS     41  58  34  47  30 /   0   0  20  10   0
SPUR          41  61  33  47  28 /   0   0  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     43  65  37  50  30 /   0   0  40  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
264
FXUS64 KLUB 212154
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
354 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AS A
VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST. THIS ENERGY WILL HELP SHARPEN THE TROUGH AND CLOSE OFF A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. IN
THE MEANTIME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP DEEPEN A SURFACE TROUGH AND MOVE IT
EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP KEEP WINDS MIXED AND
COMBINED WITH ADVANCING CIRRUS RESULT IN RELATIVELY MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT STRATUS AND FOG
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH OR WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING
VICINITY THE RED RIVER. SOME FOG MAY FORM VERY NEAR THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA AS A RESULT BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS WELL EAST BY DAWN.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE TROUGH AS A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE PLAINS MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY TEMPORARILY
MIX TO THE SURFACE EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AS A LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE ALLOWS TEMPS TO QUICKLY WARM
THERE. MEANWHILE H8 COLD ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD CREATE A
GOOD N/S TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. ANY FORCING FOR ASCENT THAT BEGINS TO
SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE OR NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS LATE IN
THE DAY WILL BE BATTLING RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS SO DID NOT INCLUDE
ANY DAYTIME POPS OF NOTE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE SHARP TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MID-DAY TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STRONG LIFT
SPREADING OVER OUR NW COUNTIES MONDAY EVENING. MUCH OF THE INITIAL
LIFT WILL GO TOWARD MOISTENING AND COOLING THE COLUMN...BUT LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 7 PM OR SO. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY BEGIN TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS
EARLY AS 9 PM IN THE SW TX PANHANDLE AND BY MIDNIGHT WE COULD SEE
SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AS THE TRANSITION ZONE
ADVANCES SEWD. FORECAST X-SECTIONS SHOW A PERIOD OF STRONG LIFT IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ALTHOUGH THE CROSSOVER BETWEEN LIFT AND
SATURATION SHOULD BE NARROW. WITH SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE REALIZED. SREF MEANS ARE ON THE
ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO INCH WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
PRESENT IN THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS. QPF FIELDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SPLNS IF TEMPS ARE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT...HOPEFULLY LATER RUNS WILL IMPROVE CLARITY
WITH TEMPS. AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT PRECIP AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OFF
THE CAPROCK TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO FREEZING THAT A LIGHT MIX CAN/T BE RULED OUT.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IN THE HWO AND THE POSSIBILITY IT COULD IMPACT THE
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE AROUND LUBBOCK.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN. THE GFS
MOS GUIDANCE GIVES US POSSIBLE ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS. WE WILL KEEP
THE WIND SPEED JUST SHY OF ADVISORY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
CLOUD COVER. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE BLUSTERY ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND WIND CHILLS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S
ACROSS ALL BUT THE SE.

WE HAVE TAKEN TEMPS DOWN A NOTCH ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE
COOL NW FLOW WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER. SE BREEZES WILL RETURN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS A SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE NEXT FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ANOTHER COLD SURGE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. TEMPS LOOK TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THAT PERIOD BUT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
SLIM AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        35  52  24  40  18 /   0  10  60   0   0
TULIA         35  52  26  40  22 /   0  10  50   0   0
PLAINVIEW     36  55  28  41  24 /   0  10  60  10   0
LEVELLAND     39  60  28  43  23 /   0  10  60  10   0
LUBBOCK       39  59  30  43  25 /   0  10  60  10   0
DENVER CITY   43  67  30  45  25 /   0  10  50  20   0
BROWNFIELD    41  65  30  44  25 /   0  10  50  10   0
CHILDRESS     41  58  34  47  30 /   0   0  20  10   0
SPUR          41  61  33  47  28 /   0   0  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     43  65  37  50  30 /   0   0  40  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/33
803
FXUS64 KLUB 211750
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
STRATUS CLEARED KCDS EARLIER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER ERN NM WILL KEEP WESTERLY WINDS UP THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS VEER OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES EAST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SURFACE TROUGH WAS FOUND PUSHING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COLUMN OF
COUNTIES AT 09Z AHEAD OF MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS. EAST OF THIS TROUGH
IS WHERE STRATUS HAS BEEN ANCHORED SINCE EARLY LAST NIGHT...
HOWEVER UNLIKE RECENT DAYS WE EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO QUICKLY
ERODE FROM W-E AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOTORS EAST IN RESPONSE TO A
S/W TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE. FOG-WISE...AREA
CAMERAS AND METARS AT 09Z SHOW THE LOWEST VISBYS OF 1/2 TO 1 MILE
CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA FROM SEMINOLE TO LUBBOCK TO
LAMESA. HRRR HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA FOR FOG FOR SEVERAL RUNS...
BUT ITS VISBYS REMAIN TOO PESSIMISTIC COMPARED TO GROUND TRUTH AND
THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ANY NEED FOR
A HEADLINE. WILL KEEP MENTION OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN NOWCASTS...
BUT EVEN THIS WINDOW IS SHRINKING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
EDGING CLOSER WITH IMPROVING VISBYS.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED S/W TROUGH WILL HELP RID ANY
LINGERING STRATUS FROM THE ROLLING PLAINS BY MIDDAY WHILE ALSO
SERVING TO BOOST 1000-500MB THICKNESSES TO NEARLY 561 DAM. OPTED
FOR THE BCCONSALL WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY AS REMAINING GUIDANCE
LOOKED TOO COOL FOR THIS PATTERN OF DEEP WLY FLOW AND DRY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THESE MILD THICKNESS VALUES FALL VERY LITTLE
TONIGHT THANKS TO AN IMPRESSIVE LL THERMAL RIDGE MIGRATING SOUTH
AHEAD OF MONDAY/S COLD FRONT...SO MIN TEMPS WERE BOOSTED 2 TO 5
DEGREES. THESE SEEMINGLY MILD LOW TEMPS MAY STILL PROVE TOO COOL
GIVEN WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT OF 10 TO 15 MPH.

LONG TERM...
COMPLICATED LONG TERM FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF STORM
SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA. FIRST ONE WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FRONTAL LOCATION IS WAFFLING NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND
THE TIME OF THE RUN. HOWEVER...GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE FRONT
TO MAKE IT INTO ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTH WIND WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT ENOUGH THIS WILL SET UP ABOUT A 10-14 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO TAKING PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY...A CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG 140-160KT JET WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW HELPING TO DEEPEN THE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW AS THE TROF AXIS IS JUST
WEST OF THE REGION. A POCKET OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AT
THE SAME TIME THE TROF IS MOVING OVERHEAD WHICH WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAIN ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK
OUT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE COLUMN WILL
MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN WITH THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE AT REACHING SATURATION. STRONG LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP TO COOL THE COLUMN
SO THAT WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SUCH STRONG LIFT AND A BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AROUND 06Z MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ELEMENTS IN A BROAD AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN AND THEN START
A TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...THEN
ALL SNOW. SNOW LINE WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT TO THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK AND AS FAR SOUTH AS A LUBBOCK TO DENVER CITY LINE LEAVING
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AS ALL RAIN.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS COULD BUMP UP CLOSE
TO AN INCH.

PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO A FAIRLY FAST END BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND THE BEST MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW 40S ON THE CAPROCK TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG NORTH WIND...WIND CHILL READINGS
WILL BE PRETTY COLD WITH SOME MID 20 F READINGS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING
LEE SURFACE TROF HELPING TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOW/MID 50S FOR CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. CHRISTMAS DAY STILL APPEARS TO
BE BREEZY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BROWN CHRISTMAS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CREEP WIND SPEEDS UP ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...MODELS NOW HAVE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WHICH DOES
NOT FAVOR WIND SPEEDS AS STRONG AS WAS BELIEVED 2-3 DAYS AGO. LEE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
WESTERLY SURFACE WIND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION
MAKING FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL CHRISTMAS. HELD OFF MENTIONING ANY
KIND OF BLOWING DUST IN THE GRIDS UNTIL WE GET CLOSER AND HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS WILL BE.

AFTER CHRISTMAS AND HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY AS THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A BIT OF A WARMUP WILL ENSUE AT THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS SURFACE FLOW VEERS BACK TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  56  25  41  22 /   0   0  50   0   0
TULIA         35  56  28  42  24 /   0   0  50   0   0
PLAINVIEW     36  58  29  42  25 /   0   0  50  10   0
LEVELLAND     37  63  30  44  26 /   0   0  50  10   0
LUBBOCK       38  61  31  44  26 /   0   0  50  10   0
DENVER CITY   39  68  32  46  27 /   0   0  50  10   0
BROWNFIELD    38  67  32  45  27 /   0   0  50  10   0
CHILDRESS     37  59  35  48  29 /   0   0  30  10   0
SPUR          39  63  36  48  30 /   0   0  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     42  67  38  51  31 /   0   0  40  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/24
947
FXUS64 KLUB 211137
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
537 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
BACK EDGE OF IFR STRATUS RECENTLY EXITED PVW AND WILL DO THE
SAME AT LBB BEFORE 14Z AS DRIER WSW WINDS ARRIVE AND RESTORE
VFR LEVELS. VISBYS ARE ALSO ON THE REBOUND...THOUGH THESE MAY
STILL FALL TO 1SM OR LESS BEFORE 14Z. DURATION AND UNCERTAINTY
OF THIS SCENARIO PRECLUDES A TEMPO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

TIMING THE DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS INTO CDS STILL YIELDS A
17Z TARGET TIME FROM EARLIER TAFS. UNTIL THEN...MVFR CIGS SHOULD
PREVAIL WITH JUST FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOB 1K FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SURFACE TROUGH WAS FOUND PUSHING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COLUMN OF
COUNTIES AT 09Z AHEAD OF MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS. EAST OF THIS TROUGH
IS WHERE STRATUS HAS BEEN ANCHORED SINCE EARLY LAST NIGHT...
HOWEVER UNLIKE RECENT DAYS WE EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO QUICKLY
ERODE FROM W-E AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOTORS EAST IN RESPONSE TO A
S/W TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE. FOG-WISE...AREA
CAMERAS AND METARS AT 09Z SHOW THE LOWEST VISBYS OF 1/2 TO 1 MILE
CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA FROM SEMINOLE TO LUBBOCK TO
LAMESA. HRRR HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA FOR FOG FOR SEVERAL RUNS...
BUT ITS VISBYS REMAIN TOO PESSIMISTIC COMPARED TO GROUND TRUTH AND
THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ANY NEED FOR
A HEADLINE. WILL KEEP MENTION OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN NOWCASTS...
BUT EVEN THIS WINDOW IS SHRINKING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
EDGING CLOSER WITH IMPROVING VISBYS.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED S/W TROUGH WILL HELP RID ANY
LINGERING STRATUS FROM THE ROLLING PLAINS BY MIDDAY WHILE ALSO
SERVING TO BOOST 1000-500MB THICKNESSES TO NEARLY 561 DAM. OPTED
FOR THE BCCONSALL WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY AS REMAINING GUIDANCE
LOOKED TOO COOL FOR THIS PATTERN OF DEEP WLY FLOW AND DRY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THESE MILD THICKNESS VALUES FALL VERY LITTLE
TONIGHT THANKS TO AN IMPRESSIVE LL THERMAL RIDGE MIGRATING SOUTH
AHEAD OF MONDAY/S COLD FRONT...SO MIN TEMPS WERE BOOSTED 2 TO 5
DEGREES. THESE SEEMINGLY MILD LOW TEMPS MAY STILL PROVE TOO COOL
GIVEN WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT OF 10 TO 15 MPH.

LONG TERM...
COMPLICATED LONG TERM FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF STORM
SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA. FIRST ONE WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FRONTAL LOCATION IS WAFFLING NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND
THE TIME OF THE RUN. HOWEVER...GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE FRONT
TO MAKE IT INTO ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTH WIND WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT ENOUGH THIS WILL SET UP ABOUT A 10-14 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO TAKING PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY...A CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG 140-160KT JET WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW HELPING TO DEEPEN THE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW AS THE TROF AXIS IS JUST
WEST OF THE REGION. A POCKET OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AT
THE SAME TIME THE TROF IS MOVING OVERHEAD WHICH WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAIN ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK
OUT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE COLUMN WILL
MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN WITH THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE AT REACHING SATURATION. STRONG LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP TO COOL THE COLUMN
SO THAT WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SUCH STRONG LIFT AND A BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AROUND 06Z MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ELEMENTS IN A BROAD AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN AND THEN START
A TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...THEN
ALL SNOW. SNOW LINE WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT TO THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK AND AS FAR SOUTH AS A LUBBOCK TO DENVER CITY LINE LEAVING
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AS ALL RAIN.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS COULD BUMP UP CLOSE
TO AN INCH.

PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO A FAIRLY FAST END BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND THE BEST MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW 40S ON THE CAPROCK TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG NORTH WIND...WIND CHILL READINGS
WILL BE PRETTY COLD WITH SOME MID 20 F READINGS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING
LEE SURFACE TROF HELPING TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOW/MID 50S FOR CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. CHRISTMAS DAY STILL APPEARS TO
BE BREEZY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BROWN CHRISTMAS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CREEP WIND SPEEDS UP ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...MODELS NOW HAVE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WHICH DOES
NOT FAVOR WIND SPEEDS AS STRONG AS WAS BELIEVED 2-3 DAYS AGO. LEE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
WESTERLY SURFACE WIND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION
MAKING FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL CHRISTMAS. HELD OFF MENTIONING ANY
KIND OF BLOWING DUST IN THE GRIDS UNTIL WE GET CLOSER AND HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS WILL BE.

AFTER CHRISTMAS AND HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY AS THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A BIT OF A WARMUP WILL ENSUE AT THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS SURFACE FLOW VEERS BACK TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NIL.
&&

$$

93/14/93
102
FXUS64 KLUB 211034
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
434 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE TROUGH WAS FOUND PUSHING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COLUMN OF
COUNTIES AT 09Z AHEAD OF MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS. EAST OF THIS TROUGH
IS WHERE STRATUS HAS BEEN ANCHORED SINCE EARLY LAST NIGHT...
HOWEVER UNLIKE RECENT DAYS WE EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO QUICKLY
ERODE FROM W-E AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOTORS EAST IN RESPONSE TO A
S/W TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE. FOG-WISE...AREA
CAMERAS AND METARS AT 09Z SHOW THE LOWEST VISBYS OF 1/2 TO 1 MILE
CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA FROM SEMINOLE TO LUBBOCK TO
LAMESA. HRRR HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA FOR FOG FOR SEVERAL RUNS...
BUT ITS VISBYS REMAIN TOO PESSIMISTIC COMPARED TO GROUND TRUTH AND
THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ANY NEED FOR
A HEADLINE. WILL KEEP MENTION OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN NOWCASTS...
BUT EVEN THIS WINDOW IS SHRINKING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
EDGING CLOSER WITH IMPROVING VISBYS.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED S/W TROUGH WILL HELP RID ANY
LINGERING STRATUS FROM THE ROLLING PLAINS BY MIDDAY WHILE ALSO
SERVING TO BOOST 1000-500MB THICKNESSES TO NEARLY 561 DAM. OPTED
FOR THE BCCONSALL WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY AS REMAINING GUIDANCE
LOOKED TOO COOL FOR THIS PATTERN OF DEEP WLY FLOW AND DRY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THESE MILD THICKNESS VALUES FALL VERY LITTLE
TONIGHT THANKS TO AN IMPRESSIVE LL THERMAL RIDGE MIGRATING SOUTH
AHEAD OF MONDAY/S COLD FRONT...SO MIN TEMPS WERE BOOSTED 2 TO 5
DEGREES. THESE SEEMINGLY MILD LOW TEMPS MAY STILL PROVE TOO COOL
GIVEN WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT OF 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM...
COMPLICATED LONG TERM FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF STORM
SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA. FIRST ONE WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FRONTAL LOCATION IS WAFFLING NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND
THE TIME OF THE RUN. HOWEVER...GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE FRONT
TO MAKE IT INTO ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTH WIND WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT ENOUGH THIS WILL SET UP ABOUT A 10-14 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO TAKING PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY...A CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG 140-160KT JET WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW HELPING TO DEEPEN THE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW AS THE TROF AXIS IS JUST
WEST OF THE REGION. A POCKET OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AT
THE SAME TIME THE TROF IS MOVING OVERHEAD WHICH WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAIN ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK
OUT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE COLUMN WILL
MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN WITH THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE AT REACHING SATURATION. STRONG LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP TO COOL THE COLUMN
SO THAT WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SUCH STRONG LIFT AND A BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AROUND 06Z MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ELEMENTS IN A BROAD AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN AND THEN START
A TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...THEN
ALL SNOW. SNOW LINE WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT TO THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK AND AS FAR SOUTH AS A LUBBOCK TO DENVER CITY LINE LEAVING
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AS ALL RAIN.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS COULD BUMP UP CLOSE
TO AN INCH.

PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO A FAIRLY FAST END BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND THE BEST MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW 40S ON THE CAPROCK TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG NORTH WIND...WIND CHILL READINGS
WILL BE PRETTY COLD WITH SOME MID 20 F READINGS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING
LEE SURFACE TROF HELPING TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOW/MID 50S FOR CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. CHRISTMAS DAY STILL APPEARS TO
BE BREEZY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BROWN CHRISTMAS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CREEP WIND SPEEDS UP ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...MODELS NOW HAVE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WHICH DOES
NOT FAVOR WIND SPEEDS AS STRONG AS WAS BELIEVED 2-3 DAYS AGO. LEE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
WESTERLY SURFACE WIND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION
MAKING FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL CHRISTMAS. HELD OFF MENTIONING ANY
KIND OF BLOWING DUST IN THE GRIDS UNTIL WE GET CLOSER AND HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS WILL BE.

AFTER CHRISTMAS AND HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY AS THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A BIT OF A WARMUP WILL ENSUE AT THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS SURFACE FLOW VEERS BACK TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        59  34  56  25  41 /   0   0   0  50   0
TULIA         58  35  56  28  42 /   0   0   0  50   0
PLAINVIEW     59  36  58  29  42 /   0   0   0  50  10
LEVELLAND     63  37  63  30  44 /   0   0   0  50  10
LUBBOCK       63  38  61  31  44 /   0   0   0  50  10
DENVER CITY   62  39  68  32  46 /   0   0   0  50  10
BROWNFIELD    62  38  67  32  45 /   0   0   0  50  10
CHILDRESS     61  37  59  35  48 /   0   0   0  30  10
SPUR          63  39  63  36  48 /   0   0   0  40  10
ASPERMONT     64  42  67  38  51 /   0   0   0  40  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14
690
FXUS64 KLUB 210541
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING ABOUT AS EXPECTED. SOUTH TO SE WINDS
STAYING UP ENOUGH THAT DENSE FOG MAY NOT END UP BEING AS BIG A
CONCERN OVERNIGHT. TIME WILL TELL. STILL...SHOULD SEE IFR TO LIFR
CIGS ON THE CAPROCK AFFECTING BOTH KLBB AND KPVW WHILE OFF THE
CAPROCK CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR WITH A THREAT FOR IFR TOWARD
SUNRISE. SFC TROUGH WITH DRIER SW TO WEST WINDS TO SCOUR LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EWD WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION...
GOOD POSSIBILITY OF LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING
AND PERSISTING PAST SUNRISE SUNDAY...PARTICULARY ON THE CAPROCK.
BKN MVFR CIGS HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF KPVW AND KLBB BUT STAND POISED
NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM A RETURN. SHOULD THEY RETURN FIRST...
PROBABILITY OF LIFR CONDITIONS DECREASES AND/OR IS DELAYED UNTIL
SFC SATURATION CAN OCCUR. KCDS LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO SEE THE MVFR
CIGS BY MID EVENING WHICH WILL LIMIT LIFR PROBABILITY...ALTHOUGH
LIKELY NOT STAVING OFF A PERIOD OF IFR TOWARD SUNRISE. MID TO LATE
MORNING SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AS DRY AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH COMBINATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RECURRENT CLOUDS AND FOG LOOK TO BE A FACTOR AGAIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF
SPLIT SHORTWV TROUGHS APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS MORNINGS
STRATUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO BURN OFF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND ROLLING
PLAINS OWING TO THE QUALITY OF THE LATE FALL MOISTURE. BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WILL
ALLOW FOG AND SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP ON THE CAPROCK
OVERNIGHT. WILL BANK ON LOWEST TEMPERATURES AROUND SUNRISE WHEN
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN TO KEEP SURFACES FROM ACCUMULATING
LIGHT GLAZE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. THICKER LOW STRATUS
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST WHERE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AS AIRMASS SATURATES WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. LATEST NAM SHOWING SOME
LIGHT QPF IN THIS REGION AS WELL BUT SATURATION AND LIFT EXPECTED
TO BE SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF DRIZZLE.

EXPECT A MUCH QUICKER TRANSITION TO CLEARING SKIES JUST BEYOND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWV AXIS PASSES AND
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO ADVECT IN DRIER AIR. OTHERWISE SOME
PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTN SUN AHEAD
OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART ON SUN EXCEPT FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
WHERE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT TIGHTER MID LEVEL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH TRAILING SHORTWV. BUMPED SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TRENDS. TEMP GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EARLY EXIT OF CLOUDS AND WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY.

LONG TERM...
AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS ON MONDAY. INITIALLY...DRY WEST WINDS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA RESULT IN MILD DAY-TIME TEMPS...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. MONDAY NIGHT...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG TO THE
SOUTH WITH A STRONG ULJ DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG IT/S WESTERN FLANK. AS
THE TROUGH PASSES...A COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
AS WELL. THIS WILL CREATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG COUPLED LIFT
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAXIMIZED BETWEEN ABOUT 03 UTC AND
09 UTC. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE DRY...SO IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT QPF
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR THE
INTERSECTION OF STRONG LIFT AND SATURATED PARCELS...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN BRIEF MODERATE PRECIP RATES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO ACROSS
THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN SOUTH PLAINS. AS CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED IN THE COVERAGE OF AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP...WE HAVE
RAISED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...SHOWERS
SHOULD INITIALLY BE LIQUID BEFORE ABOUT 05 UTC...BUT EVAPORATION
AND DIABATIC COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NW CWA. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL
KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH IN THAT AREA...BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IF THINGS COME TOGETHER JUST
RIGHT. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WE EXPECT A LIGHT MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH A COLD...LIGHT
RAIN LIKELY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A COOL
AND BLUSTERY DAY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WE SHOULD SEE A MODEST WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH NW FLOW
CONTINUING ALOFT. THEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY...DEEP-LAYER FLOW SHOULD
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. A DEEPENING SFC LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO BREEZY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS JUMPING UP INTO THE 60S DURING THE
DAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...KNOCKING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR FRIDAY BUT PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD REMAIN LOW. A SIMILAR SYSTEM MAY FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...TAKING A TRACK OUT OF THE NW THAT IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
PRECIP BUT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONGER SHOT OF COLD AIR.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AS THE GFS SUGGESTS JUST A
GLANCING BLOW WHEREAS THE ECMWF BUILDS IN THE COLD AIRMASS MORE
SOLIDLY INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        22  60  33  62  23 /   0   0   0  10  50
TULIA         30  58  34  62  25 /   0   0   0  10  50
PLAINVIEW     30  58  34  64  28 /   0   0   0   0  50
LEVELLAND     27  60  35  65  27 /   0   0   0   0  40
LUBBOCK       30  60  36  66  29 /   0   0   0   0  50
DENVER CITY   28  62  36  67  28 /   0   0   0   0  30
BROWNFIELD    28  62  36  67  28 /   0   0   0   0  30
CHILDRESS     36  57  36  63  36 /   0   0   0   0  40
SPUR          41  62  38  66  33 /   0   0   0   0  40
ASPERMONT     41  62  39  67  36 /  10   0   0   0  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
893
FXUS64 KLUB 202341
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
541 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
GOOD POSSIBILITY OF LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING
AND PERSISTING PAST SUNRISE SUNDAY...PARTICULARY ON THE CAPROCK.
BKN MVFR CIGS HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF KPVW AND KLBB BUT STAND POISED
NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM A RETURN. SHOULD THEY RETURN FIRST...
PROBABILITY OF LIFR CONDITIONS DECREASES AND/OR IS DELAYED UNTIL
SFC SATURATION CAN OCCUR. KCDS LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO SEE THE MVFR
CIGS BY MID EVENING WHICH WILL LIMIT LIFR PROBABILITY...ALTHOUGH
LIKELY NOT STAVING OFF A PERIOD OF IFR TOWARD SUNRISE. MID TO LATE
MORNING SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AS DRY AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH COMBINATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RECURRENT CLOUDS AND FOG LOOK TO BE A FACTOR AGAIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF
SPLIT SHORTWV TROUGHS APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS MORNINGS
STRATUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO BURN OFF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND ROLLING
PLAINS OWING TO THE QUALITY OF THE LATE FALL MOISTURE. BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WILL
ALLOW FOG AND SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP ON THE CAPROCK
OVERNIGHT. WILL BANK ON LOWEST TEMPERATURES AROUND SUNRISE WHEN
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN TO KEEP SURFACES FROM ACCUMULATING
LIGHT GLAZE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. THICKER LOW STRATUS
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST WHERE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AS AIRMASS SATURATES WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. LATEST NAM SHOWING SOME
LIGHT QPF IN THIS REGION AS WELL BUT SATURATION AND LIFT EXPECTED
TO BE SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF DRIZZLE.

EXPECT A MUCH QUICKER TRANSITION TO CLEARING SKIES JUST BEYOND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWV AXIS PASSES AND
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO ADVECT IN DRIER AIR. OTHERWISE SOME
PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTN SUN AHEAD
OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART ON SUN EXCEPT FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
WHERE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT TIGHTER MID LEVEL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH TRAILING SHORTWV. BUMPED SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TRENDS. TEMP GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EARLY EXIT OF CLOUDS AND WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY.

LONG TERM...
AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS ON MONDAY. INITIALLY...DRY WEST WINDS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA RESULT IN MILD DAY-TIME TEMPS...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. MONDAY NIGHT...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG TO THE
SOUTH WITH A STRONG ULJ DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG IT/S WESTERN FLANK. AS
THE TROUGH PASSES...A COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
AS WELL. THIS WILL CREATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG COUPLED LIFT
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAXIMIZED BETWEEN ABOUT 03 UTC AND
09 UTC. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE DRY...SO IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT QPF
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR THE
INTERSECTION OF STRONG LIFT AND SATURATED PARCELS...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN BRIEF MODERATE PRECIP RATES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO ACROSS
THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN SOUTH PLAINS. AS CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED IN THE COVERAGE OF AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP...WE HAVE
RAISED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...SHOWERS
SHOULD INITIALLY BE LIQUID BEFORE ABOUT 05 UTC...BUT EVAPORATION
AND DIABATIC COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NW CWA. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL
KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH IN THAT AREA...BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IF THINGS COME TOGETHER JUST
RIGHT. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WE EXPECT A LIGHT MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH A COLD...LIGHT
RAIN LIKELY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A COOL
AND BLUSTERY DAY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WE SHOULD SEE A MODEST WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH NW FLOW
CONTINUING ALOFT. THEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY...DEEP-LAYER FLOW SHOULD
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. A DEEPENING SFC LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO BREEZY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS JUMPING UP INTO THE 60S DURING THE
DAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...KNOCKING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR FRIDAY BUT PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD REMAIN LOW. A SIMILAR SYSTEM MAY FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...TAKING A TRACK OUT OF THE NW THAT IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
PRECIP BUT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONGER SHOT OF COLD AIR.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AS THE GFS SUGGESTS JUST A
GLANCING BLOW WHEREAS THE ECMWF BUILDS IN THE COLD AIRMASS MORE
SOLIDLY INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        22  60  33  62  23 /   0   0   0  10  50
TULIA         30  58  34  62  25 /   0   0   0  10  50
PLAINVIEW     30  58  34  64  28 /   0   0   0   0  50
LEVELLAND     27  60  35  65  27 /   0   0   0   0  40
LUBBOCK       30  60  36  66  29 /   0   0   0   0  50
DENVER CITY   28  62  36  67  28 /   0   0   0   0  30
BROWNFIELD    28  62  36  67  28 /   0   0   0   0  30
CHILDRESS     36  57  36  63  36 /   0   0   0   0  40
SPUR          41  62  38  66  33 /   0   0   0   0  40
ASPERMONT     41  62  39  67  36 /  10   0   0   0  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
538
FXUS64 KLUB 202151
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
351 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
RECURRENT CLOUDS AND FOG LOOK TO BE A FACTOR AGAIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF
SPLIT SHORTWV TROUGHS APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS MORNINGS
STRATUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO BURN OFF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND ROLLING
PLAINS OWING TO THE QUALITY OF THE LATE FALL MOISTURE. BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WILL
ALLOW FOG AND SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP ON THE CAPROCK
OVERNIGHT. WILL BANK ON LOWEST TEMPERATURES AROUND SUNRISE WHEN
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN TO KEEP SURFACES FROM ACCUMULATING
LIGHT GLAZE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. THICKER LOW STRATUS
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST WHERE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AS AIRMASS SATURATES WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. LATEST NAM SHOWING SOME
LIGHT QPF IN THIS REGION AS WELL BUT SATURATION AND LIFT EXPECTED
TO BE SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF DRIZZLE.

EXPECT A MUCH QUICKER TRANSITION TO CLEARING SKIES JUST BEYOND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWV AXIS PASSES AND
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO ADVECT IN DRIER AIR. OTHERWISE SOME
PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTN SUN AHEAD
OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART ON SUN EXCEPT FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
WHERE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT TIGHTER MID LEVEL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH TRAILING SHORTWV. BUMPED SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TRENDS. TEMP GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EARLY EXIT OF CLOUDS AND WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS ON MONDAY. INITIALLY...DRY WEST WINDS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA RESULT IN MILD DAY-TIME TEMPS...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. MONDAY NIGHT...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG TO THE
SOUTH WITH A STRONG ULJ DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG IT/S WESTERN FLANK. AS
THE TROUGH PASSES...A COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
AS WELL. THIS WILL CREATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG COUPLED LIFT
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAXIMIZED BETWEEN ABOUT 03 UTC AND
09 UTC. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE DRY...SO IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT QPF
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR THE
INTERSECTION OF STRONG LIFT AND SATURATED PARCELS...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN BRIEF MODERATE PRECIP RATES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO ACROSS
THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN SOUTH PLAINS. AS CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED IN THE COVERAGE OF AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP...WE HAVE
RAISED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...SHOWERS
SHOULD INITIALLY BE LIQUID BEFORE ABOUT 05 UTC...BUT EVAPORATION
AND DIABATIC COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NW CWA. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL
KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH IN THAT AREA...BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IF THINGS COME TOGETHER JUST
RIGHT. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WE EXPECT A LIGHT MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH A COLD...LIGHT
RAIN LIKELY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A COOL
AND BLUSTERY DAY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WE SHOULD SEE A MODEST WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH NW FLOW
CONTINUING ALOFT. THEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY...DEEP-LAYER FLOW SHOULD
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. A DEEPENING SFC LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO BREEZY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS JUMPING UP INTO THE 60S DURING THE
DAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...KNOCKING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR FRIDAY BUT PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD REMAIN LOW. A SIMILAR SYSTEM MAY FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...TAKING A TRACK OUT OF THE NW THAT IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
PRECIP BUT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONGER SHOT OF COLD AIR.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AS THE GFS SUGGESTS JUST A
GLANCING BLOW WHEREAS THE ECMWF BUILDS IN THE COLD AIRMASS MORE
SOLIDLY INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        22  60  33  62  23 /   0   0   0  10  50
TULIA         30  58  34  62  25 /   0   0   0  10  50
PLAINVIEW     30  58  34  64  28 /   0   0   0   0  50
LEVELLAND     27  60  35  65  27 /   0   0   0   0  40
LUBBOCK       31  60  36  66  29 /   0   0   0   0  50
DENVER CITY   28  62  36  67  28 /   0   0   0   0  30
BROWNFIELD    28  62  36  67  28 /   0   0   0   0  30
CHILDRESS     36  57  36  63  36 /   0   0   0   0  40
SPUR          41  62  38  66  33 /   0   0   0   0  40
ASPERMONT     41  62  39  67  36 /  10   0   0   0  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/33
955
FXUS64 KLUB 201751
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1151 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
TRICKY TAF FORECAST WITH THIN STRATUS EROSION UNDERWAY AND RINSE
REPEAT CYCLE ON FOR REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS
HIGHER DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO ADVECT NORTH OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A QUICK END
TO MVFR/IFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK AT KLBB AND KPVW SITES RESPECTIVELY WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT KCDS THROUGH END OF PERIOD WHERE
MOISTURE REMAINS. ONSET OF STRATUS APPEARS TO OCCUR RATHER
UNIFORMLY BUT VEERING SURFACE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF LOW
CIGS ON THE CAPROCK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE BACK EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ON TRACK TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY AHEAD OF STEADY SWLY WINDS.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING...LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET ARE AGAIN
SATURATED WITH SOME DENSE FOG IN ERN NM AND THE PERMIAN BASIN
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A BROAD STRATUS SHIELD. PROVIDED STRATUS
DOES NOT LOWER TO THE DECK...WE FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE DENSE FOG
WILL SPARE THE REGION THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE
STRATUS IS 1-2K FEET THINNER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...SO THIS SHOULD BODE WELL FOR AN EARLIER ONSET OF CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND SECURE MILDER TEMPS THAN
FRIDAY.

THE LARGER PICTURE TODAY AND TONIGHT PAINTS AN IMPRESSIVE SPLIT
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PROGGED TO REACH WEST TX AROUND MIDNIGHT. ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL SERVE TO POSITION A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
THE TX-NM BORDER BY 06Z...SO SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MORE
VEERED THAN IN PAST NIGHTS. IMPLIED UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT
ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT SHOULD BEGIN MIXING OUT FROM
WEST-EAST BEHIND THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH...LIKELY CLEARING
OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT HANG ON AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL HELP
TO KEEP HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE SURFACE TROF AXIS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS HELPING TO KEEP DRIER
AIR IN PLACE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MONDAY WILL BE A BIT TRICKY
AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
POSSIBLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS HAS THE
FRONT ALMOST THROUGH OUR AREA...ECMWF STALLS IT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE AREA...AND THE NAM HAS IT UP
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SO...WHEREVER THE FRONT WILL END UP
WILL DETERMINE WHAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.
REGARDLESS...READINGS SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE MAY HAVE A QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
STRONG JET WILL DIVE DOWN ACROSS THE BACK SIDE OF A BROAD TROF
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AS THIS JET DIGS SOUTH...THE
TROF WILL DEEPEN ALOFT AND SHARPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS WITH THE
FRONT. LIFT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE...STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT...AND COUPLING WITH STRONG LIFT WITH
THE DEEPENING TROF ARE LOOKING TO ALL BE IN PLACE AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOW MUCH WILL FALL AND WHAT TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
BUT EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS AND FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO START OFF
ALL LIQUID. AS STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT TAKES PLACE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS AT THE SURFACE...PROFILES MAY MANAGE TO SLIDE
BELOW FREEZING. THIS MEANS WE COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOME AREAS OF ALL SNOW. AGAIN...
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME WITH THE EXPECTATION
OF TRACE AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY WILL BE 10-12 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THANKS TO THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH
CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH THE ECMWF NOW BRINGING ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WOULD PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WHICH MAY BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 60S WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE GFS
IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TROF...CARRYING IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS US. THIS TOO PRODUCES
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WIND FOR CHRISTMAS DAY BUT SPEEDS ARE NOT AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF. BEYOND THAT...ECMWF DUMPS A PRETTY COLD AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH OF THE COLD
AIR. WILL KEEP THINGS IN LINE WITH THE SUPERBLEND AS OPPOSED TO
LEANING TOWARDS ONE MODEL OR THE OTHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        23  59  35  62  29 /   0   0   0   0  30
TULIA         28  59  35  61  31 /   0   0   0   0  30
PLAINVIEW     30  59  36  63  31 /   0   0   0   0  30
LEVELLAND     28  61  38  64  32 /   0   0   0   0  20
LUBBOCK       32  61  37  64  33 /   0   0   0   0  30
DENVER CITY   31  63  37  67  33 /   0   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    31  63  38  66  33 /   0   0   0   0  20
CHILDRESS     35  57  37  65  36 /  10   0   0   0  20
SPUR          35  63  40  65  36 /   0   0   0   0  20
ASPERMONT     38  62  41  67  38 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/24
738
FXUS64 KLUB 201134
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
534 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THRU EARLY AFTN. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL
LINGER AT LBB AND PVW /MVFR AT CDS/ THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE LIKELY
SCATTERING OUT BY 21Z OR SO. OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR A FEW HOURS
OF M1/4 VISBYS AT LBB AND PVW FROM 13Z-16Z...BUT THE ONE MODEL
INDICATING THIS IS OVERDOING THE EXTENT OF DENSE FOG AT 11Z AS
COMPARED TO REGIONAL METARS AND SKYCAMS...SO WILL KEEP DENSE FOG
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

MODELS SUGGEST STRATUS IS THINNER THAN FRI...SO A SOLID WINDOW
FOR VFR WILL BE KEPT OPEN LATER THIS AFTN. MVFR CIGS HOWEVER ARE
LIKELY TO REVISIT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH LOW VISBYS AND
IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT LBB AND PVW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE BACK EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ON TRACK TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY AHEAD OF STEADY SWLY WINDS.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING...LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET ARE AGAIN
SATURATED WITH SOME DENSE FOG IN ERN NM AND THE PERMIAN BASIN
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A BROAD STRATUS SHIELD. PROVIDED STRATUS
DOES NOT LOWER TO THE DECK...WE FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE DENSE FOG
WILL SPARE THE REGION THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE
STRATUS IS 1-2K FEET THINNER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...SO THIS SHOULD BODE WELL FOR AN EARLIER ONSET OF CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND SECURE MILDER TEMPS THAN
FRIDAY.

THE LARGER PICTURE TODAY AND TONIGHT PAINTS AN IMPRESSIVE SPLIT
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PROGGED TO REACH WEST TX AROUND MIDNIGHT. ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL SERVE TO POSITION A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
THE TX-NM BORDER BY 06Z...SO SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MORE
VEERED THAN IN PAST NIGHTS. IMPLIED UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT
ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT SHOULD BEGIN MIXING OUT FROM
WEST-EAST BEHIND THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH...LIKELY CLEARING
OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT HANG ON AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL HELP
TO KEEP HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE SURFACE TROF AXIS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS HELPING TO KEEP DRIER
AIR IN PLACE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MONDAY WILL BE A BIT TRICKY
AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
POSSIBLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS HAS THE
FRONT ALMOST THROUGH OUR AREA...ECMWF STALLS IT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE AREA...AND THE NAM HAS IT UP
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SO...WHEREVER THE FRONT WILL END UP
WILL DETERMINE WHAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.
REGARDLESS...READINGS SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE MAY HAVE A QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
STRONG JET WILL DIVE DOWN ACROSS THE BACK SIDE OF A BROAD TROF
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AS THIS JET DIGS SOUTH...THE
TROF WILL DEEPEN ALOFT AND SHARPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS WITH THE
FRONT. LIFT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE...STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT...AND COUPLING WITH STRONG LIFT WITH
THE DEEPENING TROF ARE LOOKING TO ALL BE IN PLACE AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOW MUCH WILL FALL AND WHAT TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
BUT EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS AND FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO START OFF
ALL LIQUID. AS STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT TAKES PLACE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS AT THE SURFACE...PROFILES MAY MANAGE TO SLIDE
BELOW FREEZING. THIS MEANS WE COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOME AREAS OF ALL SNOW. AGAIN...
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME WITH THE EXPECTATION
OF TRACE AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY WILL BE 10-12 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THANKS TO THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH
CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH THE ECMWF NOW BRINGING ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WOULD PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WHICH MAY BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 60S WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE GFS
IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TROF...CARRYING IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS US. THIS TOO PRODUCES
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WIND FOR CHRISTMAS DAY BUT SPEEDS ARE NOT AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF. BEYOND THAT...ECMWF DUMPS A PRETTY COLD AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH OF THE COLD
AIR. WILL KEEP THINGS IN LINE WITH THE SUPERBLEND AS OPPOSED TO
LEANING TOWARDS ONE MODEL OR THE OTHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NIL.
&&

$$

93/14/93
537
FXUS64 KLUB 201019
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
419 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE BACK EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ON TRACK TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY AHEAD OF STEADY SWLY WINDS.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING...LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET ARE AGAIN
SATURATED WITH SOME DENSE FOG IN ERN NM AND THE PERMIAN BASIN
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A BROAD STRATUS SHIELD. PROVIDED STRATUS
DOES NOT LOWER TO THE DECK...WE FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE DENSE FOG
WILL SPARE THE REGION THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE
STRATUS IS 1-2K FEET THINNER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...SO THIS SHOULD BODE WELL FOR AN EARLIER ONSET OF CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND SECURE MILDER TEMPS THAN
FRIDAY.

THE LARGER PICTURE TODAY AND TONIGHT PAINTS AN IMPRESSIVE SPLIT
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PROGGED TO REACH WEST TX AROUND MIDNIGHT. ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL SERVE TO POSITION A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
THE TX-NM BORDER BY 06Z...SO SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MORE
VEERED THAN IN PAST NIGHTS. IMPLIED UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT
ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT SHOULD BEGIN MIXING OUT FROM
WEST-EAST BEHIND THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH...LIKELY CLEARING
OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT HANG ON AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL HELP
TO KEEP HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE SURFACE TROF AXIS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS HELPING TO KEEP DRIER
AIR IN PLACE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MONDAY WILL BE A BIT TRICKY
AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
POSSIBLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS HAS THE
FRONT ALMOST THROUGH OUR AREA...ECMWF STALLS IT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE AREA...AND THE NAM HAS IT UP
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SO...WHEREVER THE FRONT WILL END UP
WILL DETERMINE WHAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.
REGARDLESS...READINGS SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE MAY HAVE A QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
STRONG JET WILL DIVE DOWN ACROSS THE BACK SIDE OF A BROAD TROF
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AS THIS JET DIGS SOUTH...THE
TROF WILL DEEPEN ALOFT AND SHARPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS WITH THE
FRONT. LIFT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE...STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT...AND COUPLING WITH STRONG LIFT WITH
THE DEEPENING TROF ARE LOOKING TO ALL BE IN PLACE AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOW MUCH WILL FALL AND WHAT TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
BUT EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS AND FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO START OFF
ALL LIQUID. AS STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT TAKES PLACE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS AT THE SURFACE...PROFILES MAY MANAGE TO SLIDE
BELOW FREEZING. THIS MEANS WE COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOME AREAS OF ALL SNOW. AGAIN...
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME WITH THE EXPECTATION
OF TRACE AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY WILL BE 10-12 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THANKS TO THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH
CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH THE ECMWF NOW BRINGING ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WOULD PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WHICH MAY BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 60S WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE GFS
IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TROF...CARRYING IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS US. THIS TOO PRODUCES
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WIND FOR CHRISTMAS DAY BUT SPEEDS ARE NOT AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF. BEYOND THAT...ECMWF DUMPS A PRETTY COLD AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH OF THE COLD
AIR. WILL KEEP THINGS IN LINE WITH THE SUPERBLEND AS OPPOSED TO
LEANING TOWARDS ONE MODEL OR THE OTHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  23  59  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  28  59  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     51  30  59  36  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     52  28  61  38  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       50  32  61  37  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   53  31  63  37  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    52  31  63  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     52  35  57  37  65 /   0  10   0   0   0
SPUR          50  35  63  40  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     52  38  62  41  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14
565
FXUS64 KLUB 200521
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1121 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
ALL THREE TAF SITES KEPT BOUNCING BETWEEN FEW-OVC MVFR CLOUD DECKS
TONIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS DO HINT AT DECKS DETERIORATING TO IFR TO
LIFR CLOUD DECKS OVERNIGHT. VIS HAS COMMENCED TO DROP TO 7SM AND
6SM DUE TO FOG AT KPVW AND KLBB RESPECTIVELY...AND IS EXPECTED TO
FALL TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CRITERIA OVERNIGHT AND LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY LATE MORNING. KCDS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS VFR VIS
AND IS ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO MVFR CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL COMMENCE TO SCOUR OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY AT KLBB AND KPVW...THOUGH MVFR DECKS WILL
LIKELY LINGER AT KCDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PERSISTANT LOW CLOUD DECK AND FOG HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.  CLEARING LINE HAS ALMOST MADE IT TO
LBB AND WE MAY SEE BRIEF CLEARING BEFORE MOISTURE RACES EASTWARD
TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN. INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS EVENING PERHAPS THICKEST OUT WEST.  WITH FORECAST LOWS
ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES...HAVE KEPT /THOUGH SHRUNK/
FZFG ACROSS PARMER/BAILEY/CASTRO COUNTIES TONIGHT.  INTO
SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO PUSH EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY THOUGH
REMAINING LONGEST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 50.  WE
WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN JET LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

LONG TERM...
SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID
MORNING...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW ON LEE SIDE OF ROCKIES FROM
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST FOR THE BEGINNING
OF LONGTERM. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROUGH AXIS CENTERED TO OUR EAST PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LATER MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA GIVEN
PROXIMITY TO HIGHER DEWPTS AND STEEPER PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS DROP TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES DIVES
SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MIDWEEK IS WHERE THE GFS/ECMWF BEGIN
TO DIVERGE. BOTH INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH AND VORTMAX ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY. THE GFS QUICKLY SHIFTS AND
FLATTENS THE TROUGH TO THE EAST RESULTING IN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH CHRISTMAS AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ON OUR DOORSTEP TO THE
WEST FRIDAY...IN FACT THE ECMWF INDICATES A JETMAX MOVING ACROSS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY UPWARDS OF 120KTS AT 300MB...WHILE THE GFS POSITIONS THE
JET FARTHER NORTH INTO KANSAS AND IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER. GFS SEEMS
TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH OTHER LONGTERM GUIDANCE LEANING
TOWARD MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN.

EITHER WAY CHRISTMAS WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND POTENTIALLY WINDY AS WELL. THERES
PLENTY OF TIME TO WAIT FOR THE MODELS TO BUILD CONSENSUS AND HAMMER
OUT THE DETAILS FOR PRECIP CHANCES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NEXT
WEEK AND FOR NOW HAVE NO MENTION OF EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  53  28  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         30  53  33  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     32  53  34  59  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  54  35  60  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       32  53  36  61  37 /   0   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   31  54  35  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    32  54  37  62  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     35  49  37  57  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          33  52  39  60  38 /   0   0  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     36  53  39  60  40 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
854
FXUS64 KLUB 192325
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
525 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WERE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS MVFR CLOUD DECKS PERSISTED AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES...THOUGH THE CLEARING LINE WAS NEARING KLBB AND KPVW AND
COULD THEREFORE RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCT-BKN MVFR DECKS.
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE WITH IFR CLOUD DECKS MAKING A
RETURN AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR FOG
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL VEER
TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND VEER FURTHER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THEREAFTER THE SCOURING OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR AT KLBB AND KPVW. KCDS WILL LIKELY HOLD
ON TO MVFR CLOUD DECKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PERSISTANT LOW CLOUD DECK AND FOG HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.  CLEARING LINE HAS ALMOST MADE IT TO
LBB AND WE MAY SEE BRIEF CLEARING BEFORE MOISTURE RACES EASTWARD
TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN. INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS EVENING PERHAPS THICKEST OUT WEST.  WITH FORECAST LOWS
ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES...HAVE KEPT /THOUGH SHRUNK/
FZFG ACROSS PARMER/BAILEY/CASTRO COUNTIES TONIGHT.  INTO
SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO PUSH EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY THOUGH
REMAINING LONGEST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 50.  WE
WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN JET LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

LONG TERM...
SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID
MORNING...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW ON LEE SIDE OF ROCKIES FROM
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST FOR THE BEGINNING
OF LONGTERM. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROUGH AXIS CENTERED TO OUR EAST PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LATER MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA GIVEN
PROXIMITY TO HIGHER DEWPTS AND STEEPER PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS DROP TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES DIVES
SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MIDWEEK IS WHERE THE GFS/ECMWF BEGIN
TO DIVERGE. BOTH INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH AND VORTMAX ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY. THE GFS QUICKLY SHIFTS AND
FLATTENS THE TROUGH TO THE EAST RESULTING IN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH CHRISTMAS AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ON OUR DOORSTEP TO THE
WEST FRIDAY...IN FACT THE ECMWF INDICATES A JETMAX MOVING ACROSS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY UPWARDS OF 120KTS AT 300MB...WHILE THE GFS POSITIONS THE
JET FARTHER NORTH INTO KANSAS AND IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER. GFS SEEMS
TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH OTHER LONGTERM GUIDANCE LEANING
TOWARD MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN.

EITHER WAY CHRISTMAS WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND POTENTIALLY WINDY AS WELL. THERES
PLENTY OF TIME TO WAIT FOR THE MODELS TO BUILD CONSENSUS AND HAMMER
OUT THE DETAILS FOR PRECIP CHANCES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NEXT
WEEK AND FOR NOW HAVE NO MENTION OF EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  53  28  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         30  53  33  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     32  53  34  59  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  54  35  60  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       32  53  36  61  37 /   0   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   31  54  35  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    32  54  37  62  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     35  49  37  57  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          33  52  39  60  38 /   0   0  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     36  53  39  60  40 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
765
FXUS64 KLUB 192213
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
413 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
PERSISTANT LOW CLOUD DECK AND FOG HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.  CLEARING LINE HAS ALMOST MADE IT TO
LBB AND WE MAY SEE BRIEF CLEARING BEFORE MOISTURE RACES EASTWARD
TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN. INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS EVENING PERHAPS THICKEST OUT WEST.  WITH FORECAST LOWS
ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES...HAVE KEPT /THOUGH SHRUNK/
FZFG ACROSS PARMER/BAILEY/CASTRO COUNTIES TONIGHT.  INTO
SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO PUSH EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY THOUGH
REMAINING LONGEST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 50.  WE
WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN JET LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID
MORNING...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW ON LEE SIDE OF ROCKIES FROM
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST FOR THE BEGINNING
OF LONGTERM. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROUGH AXIS CENTERED TO OUR EAST PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LATER MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA GIVEN
PROXIMITY TO HIGHER DEWPTS AND STEEPER PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS DROP TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES DIVES
SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MIDWEEK IS WHERE THE GFS/ECMWF BEGIN
TO DIVERGE. BOTH INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH AND VORTMAX ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY. THE GFS QUICKLY SHIFTS AND
FLATTENS THE TROUGH TO THE EAST RESULTING IN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH CHRISTMAS AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ON OUR DOORSTEP TO THE
WEST FRIDAY...IN FACT THE ECMWF INDICATES A JETMAX MOVING ACROSS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY UPWARDS OF 120KTS AT 300MB...WHILE THE GFS POSITIONS THE
JET FARTHER NORTH INTO KANSAS AND IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER. GFS SEEMS
TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH OTHER LONGTERM GUIDANCE LEANING
TOWARD MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN.

EITHER WAY CHRISTMAS WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND POTENTIALLY WINDY AS WELL. THERES
PLENTY OF TIME TO WAIT FOR THE MODELS TO BUILD CONSENSUS AND HAMMER
OUT THE DETAILS FOR PRECIP CHANCES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NEXT
WEEK AND FOR NOW HAVE NO MENTION OF EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  53  28  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         30  53  33  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     32  53  34  59  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  54  35  60  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       32  53  36  61  37 /   0   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   31  54  35  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    32  54  37  62  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     35  49  37  57  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          33  52  39  60  38 /   0   0  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     36  53  39  60  40 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/55
078
FXUS64 KLUB 191817
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1217 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH FIRST FEW HOURS OF FCST AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW TERMINALS.
WRN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAS JUST MOVED E OF NM/TX STATE LINE
AND ANTICIPATE IT TO REACH KPVW/KLBB AROUND 20Z WITH CIGS/VSBYS
QUICKLY PUSHING THROUGH MVFR TO VFR. HOWEVER...IFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF FCST AT KCDS WITH PREDOMINATELY MVFR CIGS. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR
LEVELS AT LBB AND PVW BY MID AFTN...HOWEVER CDS SHOWS LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF LIFTING BEYOND MVFR BY THAT TIME. OCNL MVFR CIGS AT
CDS ALREADY FROM -RA SHOULD UNDOUBTEDLY REVERT TO IFR IN A FEW
HOURS AFTER PRECIP DEPARTS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SWIFT MOVING
IMPULSE.

BY LATE THIS EVNG...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT LOW CIGS WILL
EXPAND WEST ATOP THE LBB AND PVW AIRSPACES. PREFERRED MODELS IN
THIS MOIST SETUP FAVOR IFR DECKS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LOW VISBYS FROM FOG AND FREEZING FOG.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MAKING A STEADY PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A WELL
DEFINED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX NEAR FT SUMNER/NM AT 09Z. SATELLITE
TRENDS REVEAL THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY EXIT OUR ERN ZONES BY 15Z OR SO...SO POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED
BACK MARKEDLY THEREAFTER WITH NO PRECIP MENTION BY LATE MORNING.

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY CONCERNS THE FIELD OF STRATUS ALREADY
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND ITS IMPACT ON TEMPS. WEAK FLOW AT THE
SURFACE IN THIS SETUP WOULD FAVOR LOW CLOUDS REMAINING INTACT FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE TX-NM BORDER
COMPLETE WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING
TO MIX EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SIDED WITH THE REALISTIC-
LOOKING NAM WHICH KEEPS STRATUS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA ALL AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS IN THESE AREAS WERE THEREFORE
NUDGED DOWN IN LINE WITH THE LATEST CONSALL.

ONCE DAYTIME MIXING CEASES WEST OF THE STRATUS...CLOUDS SHOULD
UNDERGO A GRADUAL EXPANSION WESTWARD AS COOL SURFACE RIDGING OOZES
WEST. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS ADVANCING STRATUS WOULD SEEM THE
MOST FAVORED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME ICE
DEPOSITION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN FREEZING TEMPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP A BROAD MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT
FOR UNCERTAINTY. MIN TEMPS FROM THE BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS
LOOK VERY MUCH ON PAR IN THIS FOGGY AND MOIST PATTERN WHICH AFTER
ALL WAS THE STORY NEARLY EVERY DAY LAST WEEK.

LONG TERM...
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS A PRETTY GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MAY LIMIT HOW FAR EAST SKIES WILL BE
ABLE TO CLEAR RESULTING IN A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH WARMER
SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE
DRY HOWEVER AS MOISTURE WILL BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND STRONGEST
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE PUSHING TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT AND A COLD FRONT WILL TRY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LEAVING OUR AREA WITH MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A SECOND PUSH OF COOL AIR TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY
AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A DRY PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE A BIT
BREEZY DEPENDING ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE GFS IS ABOUT 10
KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SO WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS FOR NOW. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE TRYING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY
MORNING BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LACKING RIGHT NOW AND
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE GFS
WANTS TO DEVELOP A STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO SURFACE
WINDS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. SUPERBLEND
FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND OPTED TO BUMP UP TEMPS 2-3
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AS THE
GFS APPEARS TO BE FASTER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DEVELOPS THIS INTO A
CLOSED LOW. ASIDE FROM BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES...WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK UNTOUCHED
FROM SUPERBLEND AS WE SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  26  53  26  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  29  54  30  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     46  31  54  32  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  29  54  30  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  30  54  34  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  31  54  32  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    51  31  54  33  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  35  53  37  55 /  30  10   0   0   0
SPUR          47  34  53  37  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     48  36  54  39  60 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

02/99/99
423
FXUS64 KLUB 191213
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
613 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR
LEVELS AT LBB AND PVW BY MID AFTN...HOWEVER CDS SHOWS LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF LIFTING BEYOND MVFR BY THAT TIME. OCNL MVFR CIGS AT
CDS ALREADY FROM -RA SHOULD UNDOUBTEDLY REVERT TO IFR IN A FEW
HOURS AFTER PRECIP DEPARTS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SWIFT MOVING
IMPULSE.

BY LATE THIS EVNG...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT LOW CIGS WILL
EXPAND WEST ATOP THE LBB AND PVW AIRSPACES. PREFERRED MODELS IN
THIS MOIST SETUP FAVOR IFR DECKS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LOW VISBYS FROM FOG AND FREEZING FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MAKING A STEADY PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A WELL
DEFINED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX NEAR FT SUMNER/NM AT 09Z. SATELLITE
TRENDS REVEAL THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY EXIT OUR ERN ZONES BY 15Z OR SO...SO POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED
BACK MARKEDLY THEREAFTER WITH NO PRECIP MENTION BY LATE MORNING.

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY CONCERNS THE FIELD OF STRATUS ALREADY
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND ITS IMPACT ON TEMPS. WEAK FLOW AT THE
SURFACE IN THIS SETUP WOULD FAVOR LOW CLOUDS REMAINING INTACT FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE TX-NM BORDER
COMPLETE WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING
TO MIX EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SIDED WITH THE REALISTIC-
LOOKING NAM WHICH KEEPS STRATUS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA ALL AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS IN THESE AREAS WERE THEREFORE
NUDGED DOWN IN LINE WITH THE LATEST CONSALL.

ONCE DAYTIME MIXING CEASES WEST OF THE STRATUS...CLOUDS SHOULD
UNDERGO A GRADUAL EXPANSION WESTWARD AS COOL SURFACE RIDGING OOZES
WEST. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS ADVANCING STRATUS WOULD SEEM THE
MOST FAVORED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME ICE
DEPOSITION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN FREEZING TEMPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP A BROAD MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT
FOR UNCERTAINTY. MIN TEMPS FROM THE BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS
LOOK VERY MUCH ON PAR IN THIS FOGGY AND MOIST PATTERN WHICH AFTER
ALL WAS THE STORY NEARLY EVERY DAY LAST WEEK.

LONG TERM...
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS A PRETTY GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MAY LIMIT HOW FAR EAST SKIES WILL BE
ABLE TO CLEAR RESULTING IN A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH WARMER
SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE
DRY HOWEVER AS MOISTURE WILL BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND STRONGEST
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE PUSHING TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT AND A COLD FRONT WILL TRY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LEAVING OUR AREA WITH MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A SECOND PUSH OF COOL AIR TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY
AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A DRY PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE A BIT
BREEZY DEPENDING ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE GFS IS ABOUT 10
KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SO WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS FOR NOW. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE TRYING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY
MORNING BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LACKING RIGHT NOW AND
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE GFS
WANTS TO DEVELOP A STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO SURFACE
WINDS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. SUPERBLEND
FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND OPTED TO BUMP UP TEMPS 2-3
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AS THE
GFS APPEARS TO BE FASTER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DEVELOPS THIS INTO A
CLOSED LOW. ASIDE FROM BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES...WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK UNTOUCHED
FROM SUPERBLEND AS WE SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  26  53  26  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  29  54  30  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     46  31  54  32  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  29  54  30  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  30  54  34  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  31  54  32  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    51  31  54  33  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  35  53  37  55 /  30  10   0   0   0
SPUR          47  34  53  37  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     48  36  54  39  60 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93
698
FXUS64 KLUB 191017
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MAKING A STEADY PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A WELL
DEFINED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX NEAR FT SUMNER/NM AT 09Z. SATELLITE
TRENDS REVEAL THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY EXIT OUR ERN ZONES BY 15Z OR SO...SO POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED
BACK MARKEDLY THEREAFTER WITH NO PRECIP MENTION BY LATE MORNING.

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY CONCERNS THE FIELD OF STRATUS ALREADY
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND ITS IMPACT ON TEMPS. WEAK FLOW AT THE
SURFACE IN THIS SETUP WOULD FAVOR LOW CLOUDS REMAINING INTACT FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE TX-NM BORDER
COMPLETE WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING
TO MIX EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SIDED WITH THE REALISTIC-
LOOKING NAM WHICH KEEPS STRATUS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA ALL AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS IN THESE AREAS WERE THEREFORE
NUDGED DOWN IN LINE WITH THE LATEST CONSALL.

ONCE DAYTIME MIXING CEASES WEST OF THE STRATUS...CLOUDS SHOULD
UNDERGO A GRADUAL EXPANSION WESTWARD AS COOL SURFACE RIDGING OOZES
WEST. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS ADVANCING STRATUS WOULD SEEM THE
MOST FAVORED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME ICE
DEPOSITION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN FREEZING TEMPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP A BROAD MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT
FOR UNCERTAINTY. MIN TEMPS FROM THE BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS
LOOK VERY MUCH ON PAR IN THIS FOGGY AND MOIST PATTERN WHICH AFTER
ALL WAS THE STORY NEARLY EVERY DAY LAST WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS A PRETTY GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MAY LIMIT HOW FAR EAST SKIES WILL BE
ABLE TO CLEAR RESULTING IN A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH WARMER
SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE
DRY HOWEVER AS MOISTURE WILL BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND STRONGEST
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE PUSHING TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT AND A COLD FRONT WILL TRY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LEAVING OUR AREA WITH MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A SECOND PUSH OF COOL AIR TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY
AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A DRY PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE A BIT
BREEZY DEPENDING ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE GFS IS ABOUT 10
KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SO WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS FOR NOW. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE TRYING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY
MORNING BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LACKING RIGHT NOW AND
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE GFS
WANTS TO DEVELOP A STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO SURFACE
WINDS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. SUPERBLEND
FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND OPTED TO BUMP UP TEMPS 2-3
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AS THE
GFS APPEARS TO BE FASTER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DEVELOPS THIS INTO A
CLOSED LOW. ASIDE FROM BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES...WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK UNTOUCHED
FROM SUPERBLEND AS WE SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  26  53  26  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  29  54  30  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     46  31  54  32  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  29  54  30  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  30  54  34  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  31  54  32  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    51  31  54  33  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  35  53  37  55 /  30  10   0   0   0
SPUR          47  34  53  37  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     48  36  54  39  60 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14
577
FXUS64 KLUB 190520
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECKS PERSISTED AT KCDS...AND IFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE
DEVELOPED AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT KCDS
DECKS DETERIORATING TO IFR CRITERIA AS WELL OVERNIGHT. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW MID-LATE
MORNING WHERE IT WILL SCATTER OUT THEREAFTER AT KPVW AND
KLBB...BUT RAISE BACK TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCDS. VISIBILITY HAS
INTERMITTENTLY FALLEN AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW...THUS VFR CONDITIONS
ENSUED. VISIBILITY BECOMING RESTRICTED TO AROUND 6 MILES OR SO
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW LOW IT WILL
GO GIVEN THE FOLLOWING WEATHER INTEREST. ATTENTION TURNS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO WHICH HAS
PROMOTED -SHRA WEST OF KLBB AND KPVW TONIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW
THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD SHIFT EAST AND AFFECT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW
OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY KCDS IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER /THUS
VISIBILITY MAY BECOME REDUCED FOR ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD/. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A TEMPO FOR -SHRA AT KLBB AND KPVW AT
THIS TIME...AND WILL PREFER TO SEE HOW RADAR TRENDS GO BEFORE
ADDING A PRECIP MENTION TO KCDS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT EAST NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
STRATUS POISED TO MOVE BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
EVENING AS SFC WINDS VEER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST IN RESPONSE
TO PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THAT TROUGH
WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS SERN ARIZONA AND SWRN NEW MEXICO. MODELS
REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT...ESPECIALLY WRF-NAM AND HI-RES
MODELS...IN SPREADING SHOWERS INTO THE WRN ZONES ABOUT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THEN TRACKING EWD DURING THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTN. IN GENERAL EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS
DO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE FROM THE SRN ZONES SWD
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER PRECIP THERE. MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW MIX IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES...ALTHOUGH THAT IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SFC TEMPS. WILL NUDGE POPS UP SOME INTO THE
30-40 PCT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT.
EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT MILDER
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO RAW MODEL OUTPUT THAN MOS.

LONG TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM. WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAY BRING MORE FOG TO THE AREA IN
ADDITION TO A SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST PUSHING
WARMER AND DRYER AIR IN TO THE FA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROF.
THE LEE TROF WILL BUILD AND GATHER COLD AIR BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. THE TROF WILL
TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AS CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST SENDING THE COLD AIR
SURGING SOUTHWARD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL COLD
FRONT STEPS UP ON DECK. UNFORTUNATELY THE GRINCH LOOKS TO BE HOLDING
THIS ONE ON THE TOP OF MOUNT CRUMPIT UNTIL AFTER CHRISTMAS AS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S...POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER...BY CHRISTMAS DAY. THAT WILL HAVE US
SINGING MELE KALIKIMAKA INSTEAD OF WHITE CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE SCALED BACK THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROF THAT WILL
BRING THIS FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK FROM A CLOSED 534 DM LOW TO AN OPEN
WAVE. DESPITE THAT TREND...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD STILL BE COLD
AS THE TROF WILL FUNNEL COLD AIR DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  50  23  54  25 /  30  10  10   0   0
TULIA         35  46  28  54  31 /  30  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     35  48  30  55  32 /  30  30  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     35  52  29  56  32 /  40  30  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       36  50  31  56  34 /  30  30  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   36  54  30  56  34 /  40  20  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    35  52  31  55  34 /  40  30  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     40  46  33  54  37 /  20  30  10   0  10
SPUR          36  48  32  55  37 /  30  40  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     40  49  35  58  40 /  20  30  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29

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