Area Forecast Discussion
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864
FXUS64 KLUB 202324
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
624 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ATTM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER UNDERNEATH IT. CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA BY 03Z. THREAT OF THUNDER AT EITHER TERMINAL IS
NON-ZERO BUT NOT BIG ENOUGH TO RUN WITH A PREVAILING OR TEMPO
GROUP ATTM. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SMALL
CHANCE FOR SOME FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TOWARD
12Z...AGAIN THE CHANCE OF WHICH IS TOO SMALL TO INSERT MENTION
INTO EITHER TAF. FINALLY...WIND SWITCH TO NORTH WITH THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
VIS SAT SHOWS A LINE OF CU DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE
AND IS GRADUALLY PUSHING EASTWARD WHILE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD. A FEW
RETURNS HAVE SHOWED UP ON RADAR OVER PARMER COUNTY WHICH IS RIGHT IN
LINE WITH THIS CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE /DRY/ LINE AS SURFACE OBS INDICATE A SURFACE TROF IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS
MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROF. THE DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE WITH ITS
EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST
MOVES CLOSER. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT COLDER AIR ALOFT
IS PUSHING IN AND IS INCREASING OUR LAPSE RATES. SCATTERED SKIES ARE
HELPING AID SOME SURFACE HEATING IN TURN HELPING TO SLOWLY ERODE
WHAT CAP IS LEFT. AS CLEARER SKIES MOVE EASTWARD THIS SHOULD HELP
WARM THE SURFACE MORE TO THE POINT OF FULL CAP EROSION. THIS WILL
HELP FIRE CONVECTION MORE QUICKLY AS THE DRYLINE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AND TX PANHANDLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION WITH CHANCES
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING EASTWARD. WHILE CAPE THERMO
PROFILES ARE ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE SVR HAIL AND WINDS...0-6KM SHEAR IS
HIGH END MARGINAL TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 40 KTS OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND 35 KTS ALONG THE I27/HWY84 CORRIDOR. I HAVE KEPT
INHERITED POPS BEFORE 00Z WITH SVR MENTION AND INCREASED COVERAGE TO
50 POPS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR LATER TONIGHT.

PRECIP/CONVECTION CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE DRY
LINE/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD AND AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE WARM IN THE MID 70S TO 80S
TOMORROW AS CAA WILL BE WEAK AND SHORT LIVED DURING THE MORNING AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR MAKING WAY FOR SOLAR HEATING. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS GO AROUND.
WE CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPS AND A RETURN TO SOUTH BREEZES
TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY TRANSITS WTX DOWNSTREAM OF A
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WEST. FAIRLY ROBUST MOISTURE
RETURN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. THE GFS AND
ECMWF REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSES THE ROCKIES...A DRYLINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. MODELS ARE STILL IN FLUX WITH THE EAST-WEST POSITION OF
THE DRYLINE BY PEAK HEATING...BUT IT APPEARS LIKELY IT WILL BE
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. WE CONTINUE
TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...AND
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE
NE ZONES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT
MAY NOT PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BEFORE LIFTING. ANOTHER LARGE
TROUGH WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
THE MID-LVL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN
HOLD ON TO LOW-LVL MOISTURE. DRYLINE ACTIVITY MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT
AND SUN ACROSS ERN ZONES...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED POPS BELOW MENTION
FOR NOW. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY....TEMPS
SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  74  51  79  52 /  10  10   0   0   0
TULIA         51  76  50  80  55 /  30  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  78  51  81  56 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     54  80  54  82  59 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       55  81  56  81  60 /  20  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   55  78  55  82  61 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    54  79  56  83  60 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     58  82  56  82  57 /  50  10   0   0   0
SPUR          58  83  57  82  60 /  40  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     60  85  58  83  61 /  40  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07

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