Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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064
FXUS64 KLUB 240856
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
356 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN NM AND SRN COLO WILL
TEND TO ELONGATE E-W TODAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD STRETCHING FROM SRN OKLA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL TX. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
THE UPPER HIGH TODAY...SKIRTING OUR SRN ZONES. LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST BUT
PERHAPS NOT ALL CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE COVERAGE
SEEMS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY GIVEN THE SUBTLE WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S TO
ABOUT 102 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DIE
OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...PRECIPITATION LOOKS MORE
UNLIKELY...SPECIFICALLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS. A FEW
SHORT WAVES ARE STILL PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE BUT LOOK TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE
PANHANDLES MAY SEE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FROM THESE SHORT WAVES.
FURTHERMORE...WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION
TO MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW IS STILL FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES WEST AND AMPLIFIES.

PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. A DRYING TREND DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK MAY BE ERASED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR NEXT WEEK. EXACT DETAILS
REMAIN UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL DOES LOOK WETTER AND COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  66  97  66  98 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         94  68  98  69  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  68  98  68  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     95  68 101  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       97  70 101  70 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   96  68 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    97  69 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     99  73 104  73 103 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          97  71 101  71 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     99  73 104  74 103 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/01

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