Area Forecast Discussion
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612
FXUS64 KLUB 191110
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
510 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT EFFECTS WILL BE BRIEF
AS WINDS DECREASE THEN VEER TOWARD SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...MODEST LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
OFFSET SHARP INCREASES IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES THAT RESULT FROM
INCREASED HEIGHTS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD TOWARD
WEST TEXAS. AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON
WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT AS WELL. RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT A
FIVE DEGREE INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPS OVER YESTERDAY. A BIT OF AN
UPTICK IN WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN VEER ALL THE WAY BACK
TOWARD SOUTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT. THAT RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT MAY HELP KEEP TEMPS UP JUST A BIT. THAT IN COMBINATION
WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL LEAD TO TRENDING
OVERNIGHT LOWS TOWARD THE WARMER GFS BASED OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...
ONLY CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE WITH THIS PACKAGE INVOLVED RAMPING UP
POPS 06Z-12Z SAT AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH SPURS DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WEST TX. UNTIL THAT POINT...A
MINOR TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE REGION ON THU SENDING ANOTHER WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. SINCE NEITHER OF
THESE FRONTS WILL TRACK INTO THE GULF...A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW
WILL BE LEFT INTACT WHICH COULD ADVECT SOME LOW CLOUDS NORTHWARD
ATOP THE SHALLOW FRONTAL ZONE BY FRI MORNING OFF THE CAPROCK.

TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING ON FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET
UNTIL A DIGGING TROUGH ARRIVES LATE FRI NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.
ALREADY ON FRI..THE EFFECTS OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE
AREA AS NLY WINDS TURN SELY IN RESPONSE TO ORGANIZING PRESSURE
FALLS TO OUR WEST. MEANWHILE...BACKING OF MID/UPPER WINDS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WILL TAP A PLUME OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE DAY. BY FAR THE MOST IMPRESSIVE SIGNAL BY FRI
EVENING IS A BROAD SELY COMPONENT TO 850MB WINDS PER ALL MODELS
WHICH LATER ACCELERATES AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES UNDER AN
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW. SUBSEQUENT DEEP AND MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEFINITELY FITS OUR RECIPE FOR GOOD RAIN CHANCES
AS BOTH LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE. ON THAT
NOTE...PWATS IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS ARE PROGGED AOA 1 INCH SO
SOME HEAVY RAIN APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. DECENT ELEVATED CAPE COULD
EASILY ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES IN ADDITION TO SUPPORTING SOME
STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EVENTS AS NOTED BY SPC/S DAY 3
OUTLOOK. POPS WERE RAMPED UP TO HIGH CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA TO BETTER REFLECT THIS FAVORABLE
PATTERN...BEFORE DRYING OUT AGGRESSIVELY FROM W-E AFTER 12Z SAT.

BEHIND SATURDAY/S TROUGH...CYCLONIC NW FLOW WILL UNFOLD AND PLACE
THE REGION SQUARELY UNDER A DEEP BAND OF ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLIES.
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECM AND ITS MOS GUIDANCE HAVE TAPERED BACK
WINDS CONSIDERABLY...THE GFS AND MEX REMAIN VERY STOUT WITH A
BLOWING DUST SETUP FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. DID NUDGE WINDS
UP A BIT ON SUN FROM EARLIER...BUT AM KEEPING VALUES WELL SHORT OF
THE HIGH-END WIND ADVISORY MOS NUMBERS FOR OUR NW ZONES. TIMING OF
ANOTHER FRONT BY LATE SUN FROM THE NORTH WILL PROVE CRITICAL IN
DECIDING WHERE THIS CORRIDOR OF STRONGER W-NW WINDS SETS UP...SO
WE/LL WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS BEFORE COMMITTING TO
MARKEDLY STRONGER OR DRASTICALLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS. SIMILAR
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH NEXT WEEK/S TEMPS AS MODELS ARE AT ODDS
OVER THE DEPTH OF A L/W TROUGH EVOLVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION. KEPT COOLER TEMPS IN ORDER FOR NOW VERY MUCH AKIN TO THE
SUPERBLEND WHICH HAS SOME WEIGHTING FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THAT
WERE MUCH COOLER THAN THE LATEST/MILDER NWP LINEUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  26  58  24  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  27  56  26  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  29  59  28  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     57  30  65  28  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       56  31  64  29  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   60  30  66  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    59  31  65  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     55  31  58  32  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          57  30  65  34  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  33  68  38  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93/07

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