Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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435
FXUS64 KLUB 251719
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1219 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
FANTASTIC FLYING WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PATCHY GROUND FOG TOWARD DAWN
SUNDAY...BUT CHANCES OF ANY FOG DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING EITHER
TERMINAL IS LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO THIS ITERATION OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST AS THE CENTER OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES OVERHEAD.  WHILE 24 HOURS AGO WEST TEXAS WAS DEALING
WITH PATCHY SHALLOW FOG THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT.  THE INHERITED LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE LARGELY ON TRACK FOR THIS
MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON
THE SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES YET
AGAIN...AND PERHAPS EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
RECORDS FOR TODAY AT LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS ARE 91 AND 94 DEGREES
RESPECTIVELY...AND WHILE FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY JUST A
SHADE BELOW THOSE NUMBERS IT IS CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY TO SEE A SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY OF RECORD HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE READINGS THIS MORNING...AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 MILES PER
HOUR DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY...AND BLUEBIRD SKIES WILL CONTINUE
AS WELL.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
TROUGHINESS OUT WEST THIS WEEKEND.  THIS WILL YIELD BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY UNTIL THE TROUGH
AXIS SHARPENS ON MONDAY.  SOME RESIDUAL ENERGY REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE AN EVEN HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS
POSITIONED FROM THE DESERT SW ALL THE WAY UP THE NORTHERN PART OF
ALASKA.  IN LOOKING AT THE ECM...LAST NIGHT WE MENTIONED THE
POTENTIAL OF A FREEZE AROUND HALLOWEEN.  HOWEVER...THE MJO DOES NOT
PROVIDE MUCH IN THE WAY FOR SUPPORT OF AN EVENT FOR
US...THUS...PROBABLY BEST TO NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THOSE PROSPECTS
QUITE YET.  IN FACT...USING THE MJO ALONE AS AN INDICATOR...IT MAY
TAKE US UNTIL ABOUT MID-NOVEMBER TO GET A GOOD COLD-AIR DUMP INTO
THE REGION.  BUT I DIGRESS.

AFTER MILDLY BREEZY DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AN INTERESTING PERIOD
COMES MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION.  THE GFS/ECM
SOLUTIONS PROVIDE A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED
THIS TIME OF YEAR...A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE NAM...ON THE OTHER
HAND...IS AN OUTLIER AS IT DEVELOPS PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES.  GIVEN THAT THIS SO RARELY
HAPPENS...AM INCLINED TO DISCOUNT THAT SOLUTION ATTM. DRIER AIR
STAYS IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS
START CREEPING BACK INTO THE 40S. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT DOES LOOK
TO ENTER THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY DRY AS WELL.  AFTER A
WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TEMPS LOOK TO GET BACK TO JUST SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  85  54  79  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         53  86  56  81  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     53  85  56  82  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     52  85  57  83  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       54  86  58  84  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   52  85  57  83  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    53  86  57  84  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     59  90  60  89  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          54  86  57  87  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     58  87  58  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23

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