Area Forecast Discussion
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025
FXUS64 KLUB 100857
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
357 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING IS A BIT
AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND WILL FCST ITS PROGRESSION INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM IS INDICATING. THE FRONT MAY
HANG UP ACROSS THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT
SOME CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
THIS EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING...AND WHETHER THAT IS IN THE FCST
AREA OR JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST IS ONE OF THE QUESTIONS
TODAY. WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF
THE FRONT STALLING BEFORE EXITING THE FCST AREA. OTHER ISSUE WITH
UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION IS TODAYS HIGH TEMPS.
THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 100F
IN THE SE BUT LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET PAST 80F IN THE NW.

OVERNIGHT WILL SEE THE SWRN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE GOOD LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTENING WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. IN
ADDITION...THERE MAY BE END UP BEING A CONNECTION TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE AS DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NRN MEXICO COULD BE DRAWN NEWD
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SCENARIO FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IS
PLAUSIBLE AND WILL BUMP POPS UP SOME MAINLY FOR THE SRN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FCST AREA...ALTHOUGH AM NOT QUITE READY TO JUMP ON BOARD THE
QUITE WET NAM AND THE HIGH POPS IN ITS ASSOCIATED OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
GREATEST CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE INCLUDED RAISING POPS
TO LIKELIES OVER A LARGE AREA FRI MORNING AND LOWERING MAX TEMPS
A BIT FURTHER ON SATURDAY.

THURSDAY BEGINS WITH A ZONAL RIBBON OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAINLY
OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. EVEN WITH WEAK ASCENT...WOULD EXPECT
SOME REMNANT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FROM WED NIGHT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MRNG HOURS. THEREAFTER...A LULL OF SOME
DEGREE APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS THE FRONTAL ZONE ALOFT DECAYS WHILE
LIFTING NORTHWARD. MUCH OF THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED MASS
FIELD CONVERGENCE IN SERN CO ALONG A SFC LOW AND MUCH-ANTICIPATED
STRONG COLD FRONT. OPTED TO KEEP SOME POPS INTACT THU EVENING
BEFORE RAMPING THESE VALUES UP THRU FRI MORNING AS THE DEEPEST
MOISTENING AND FRONTAL ASCENT UNFOLD. ON THAT NOTE...THE NAM IS
A RATHER SLOW OUTLIER THIS FROPA AND IS NOT PREFERRED GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR BEING SOURCED AND THE WESTERLY
LONGITUDE OF A 1036MB SURFACE HIGH. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO THE POPS AND AVOID LINGERING THIS MENTION
FOR AN UNNECESSARILY LONG DURATION. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT LOOK RESPECTABLE ENUF TO HELP TRANSPORT SOME 25 KNOT WINDS
TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES.

BY FRI AFTN...PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN FROM N-S...BUT
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A REASONABLE CHANCE OF DRIZZLE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT THANKS TO A SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION WITH LOW
STRATUS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW LAST SAT/SUN. EVEN WITH THESE
CLOUDS...THE DEGREE OF CAA /850MB TEMPS OF 4-8 DEG C/ WARRANTS
SOME CHILLY LOWS BY SAT MRNG. CONSIDERING AN EXTENSION OF THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER THE REGION
THRU AT LEAST SAT NIGHT...AM HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME ACCEPTING THE
RAPID TEMP RECOVERY PROGGED BY MEX MOSTLY DUE TO ITS HEAVIER
WEIGHTING OF CLIMATOLOGY IN THESE MORE DISTANT PERIODS. THIS VERY
DILEMMA CAN BE SEEN BY COMPARING MAX TEMPS FOR SAT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. THE THEME HAS BEEN OVERWHELMINGLY COOLER WITH
EACH RUN AND GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUDS NOT BUDGING UNDER
EASTERLY FLOW THRU MOST OF SAT...TEMPS SHOULD BE STUNTED
ACCORDINGLY. SLY FLOW BY SUN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
SHOULD BOOST TEMPS MORE AGGRESSIVELY AND FINALLY RID OF THE LOW
CLOUDS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE PICTURE BY MON/TUE AS A
TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPEAR MUCH LESS THAN FRIDAY/S FRONT AND
THUS LESS CERTAIN FOR SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  57  75  57  61 /  10  20  20  40  60
TULIA         82  60  75  56  61 /  10  20  20  40  60
PLAINVIEW     83  60  76  58  62 /  10  20  20  40  60
LEVELLAND     84  60  75  59  66 /  10  30  20  30  60
LUBBOCK       88  61  75  59  65 /  10  30  20  30  60
DENVER CITY   88  63  77  60  69 /  10  30  20  30  60
BROWNFIELD    88  62  77  60  67 /  10  30  20  30  60
CHILDRESS     89  62  77  61  65 /  10  20  20  30  60
SPUR          90  64  77  62  68 /  10  30  20  30  60
ASPERMONT     98  66  81  64  71 /  20  30  20  30  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93

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