Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Current Version | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

615
FXUS64 KLUB 272328
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
528 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CREATE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MODEST UPPER FLOW WILL BACK TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FLATTENING RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST. THIS WILL MANIFEST IN SLIGHT
DEEPENING AND EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO
MORE DIRECTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...AS WELL
AS DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND COMPONENTS. COMPLIMENTED
BY SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE TONIGHT...
WITH A LARGER BOOST FRIDAY AS 70S RETURN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WE
WILL FAVOR STILL THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN THIS
SECTOR OF THE PATTERN TRANSITION. ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE ALOFT...
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PERHAPS. BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PANHANDLE WHERE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS AT THE H850 MILLIBAR LEVEL ARE EXPECTED. DEEPER MIXING
ABOVE H850 SEEMS UNLIKELY FOR FRIDAY AT LEAST. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST OR THINKING REGARDING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. A PASSING LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE...DRY AND BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND NEAR FULL INSOLATION WILL
ALL SUPPORT WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY THREATEN RECORD
HIGHS...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY WHEN THE RECORD IS A RELATIVELY
COOL 78 DEGREES /SET IN 2012/ AT LUBBOCK. IN ADDITION...THE
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER.

A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHOCK US BACK TO REALITY
JUST IN TIME FOR DECEMBER...LIKELY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS
LATE ON SUNDAY. THE FROPA WILL BE A DRY ONE...BUT NWP CONTINUES TO
TREND COOLER WITH THIS AIRMASS...WHICH IS BELIEVABLE GIVEN THE -20S
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THANKFULLY...WEST TEXAS WILL ONLY SEE A
GLANCING BLOW FROM THIS PROGRESSIVE SURFACE RIDGE...WITH A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALREADY ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AFTER HIGHS ONLY
EDGING UP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT COULD THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN AND HAS NOT BEEN EXPLICITLY
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST ATTM /THOUGH WE DID TEMPER BACK THE WARMING
TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND PERHAPS
LONGER...THOUGH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN
BECOMES MUCH LESS CERTAIN TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  76  37  75  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         35  74  37  77  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     34  74  37  75  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     33  75  34  75  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       33  75  36  75  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   34  70  35  72  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    34  73  34  73  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     35  73  42  77  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          36  70  38  73  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     37  70  43  74  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
001
FXUS64 KLUB 272030
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
230 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MODEST UPPER FLOW WILL BACK TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FLATTENING RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST. THIS WILL MANIFEST IN SLIGHT
DEEPENING AND EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO
MORE DIRECTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...AS WELL
AS DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND COMPONENTS. COMPLIMENTED
BY SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE TONIGHT...
WITH A LARGER BOOST FRIDAY AS 70S RETURN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WE
WILL FAVOR STILL THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN THIS
SECTOR OF THE PATTERN TRANSITION. ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE ALOFT...
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PERHAPS. BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PANHANDLE WHERE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS AT THE H850 MILLIBAR LEVEL ARE EXPECTED. DEEPER MIXING
ABOVE H850 SEEMS UNLIKELY FOR FRIDAY AT LEAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST OR THINKING REGARDING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. A PASSING LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE...DRY AND BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND NEAR FULL INSOLATION WILL
ALL SUPPORT WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY THREATEN RECORD
HIGHS...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY WHEN THE RECORD IS A RELATIVELY
COOL 78 DEGREES /SET IN 2012/ AT LUBBOCK. IN ADDITION...THE
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER.

A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHOCK US BACK TO REALITY
JUST IN TIME FOR DECEMBER...LIKELY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS
LATE ON SUNDAY. THE FROPA WILL BE A DRY ONE...BUT NWP CONTINUES TO
TREND COOLER WITH THIS AIRMASS...WHICH IS BELIEVABLE GIVEN THE -20S
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THANKFULLY...WEST TEXAS WILL ONLY SEE A
GLANCING BLOW FROM THIS PROGRESSIVE SURFACE RIDGE...WITH A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALREADY ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AFTER HIGHS ONLY
EDGING UP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT COULD THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN AND HAS NOT BEEN EXPLICITLY
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST ATTM /THOUGH WE DID TEMPER BACK THE WARMING
TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND PERHAPS
LONGER...THOUGH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN
BECOMES MUCH LESS CERTAIN TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  76  37  75  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         35  74  37  77  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     34  74  37  75  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     33  75  34  75  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       33  75  36  75  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   34  70  35  72  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    34  73  34  73  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     35  73  42  77  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          36  70  38  73  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     37  70  43  74  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23
904
FXUS64 KLUB 271739
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1139 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
GRADUAL DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TODAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER NOTCH MORE FRIDAY AS UPPER FLOW BACKS. VFR WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANGE GROUPS RELATED TO DECOUPLING LOWER ATMOSPHERE
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN RE-COUPLING SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. A MODEST WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 35 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLE...CLOSE TO KPVW IN PARTICULAR...WHICH
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO FRIDAY. WINDS FRIDAY MAY
BECOME MORE GUSTY BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. MILDLY BREEZY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN LUBBOCK WOULD LIKE TO
WISH ALL A VERY HAPPY THANKSGIVING.  A FANTASTIC WEATHER DAY IT WILL
BE!

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR CHIHUAHUA.  WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.  COMBINED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM NICELY AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...
LOW AMPLITUDE UA RIDGING THAT WILL PROMOTE NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BREEZY AFTN W-SW SFC WINDS COURTESY OF SFC LEE
TROUGHING...COUPLED WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
SOARING INTO THE 70S DURING THE SAID PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY THREATEN
THE 78 DEGREE RECORD ON SATURDAY /SET IN 2012/. FURTHERMORE...THESE
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN EWRD PROPAGATING UA TROUGH ACROSS SRN
CANADA/NRN U.S. TIER ON SUNDAY...AS IT WILL BE SENDING DOWN A DRY
COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC AIRMASS TOWARDS THE
REGION...WITH SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE FRONT IMPINGING ON THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE REGION /ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE MID-WEST/ THUS
RESULTING IN A GLANCING BLOW FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL MANAGE TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY /MOS GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
TEMPS/. WITH THE SFC RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED COOLER AIRMASS EXITING THE
REGION BY TUESDAY...SFC WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH THEREBY
BUMPING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONCURRENTLY...FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SW DUE TO A PACIFIC UA
DISTURBANCE NEARING THE CALI SHORE. THE SFC SRLY REGIME WILL ALLOW
THE TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PWATS
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 0.5-0.8 INCHES. RECENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUED
TO TRACK THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE TO NORTH OF THE FOUR-CORNERS
REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH IS WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  34  75  36  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         63  35  76  37  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  35  74  37  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     63  37  73  37  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       62  37  74  38  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   63  36  72  38  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    64  37  72  37  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     62  36  72  40  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          63  38  73  39  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     63  38  71  44  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
423
FXUS64 KLUB 271109
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
509 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014


.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. MILDLY BREEZY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN LUBBOCK WOULD LIKE TO
WISH ALL A VERY HAPPY THANKSGIVING.  A FANTASTIC WEATHER DAY IT WILL
BE!

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR CHIHUAHUA.  WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.  COMBINED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM NICELY AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...
LOW AMPLITUDE UA RIDGING THAT WILL PROMOTE NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BREEZY AFTN W-SW SFC WINDS COURTESY OF SFC LEE
TROUGHING...COUPLED WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
SOARING INTO THE 70S DURING THE SAID PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY THREATEN
THE 78 DEGREE RECORD ON SATURDAY /SET IN 2012/. FURTHERMORE...THESE
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN EWRD PROPAGATING UA TROUGH ACROSS SRN
CANADA/NRN U.S. TIER ON SUNDAY...AS IT WILL BE SENDING DOWN A DRY
COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC AIRMASS TOWARDS THE
REGION...WITH SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE FRONT IMPINGING ON THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE REGION /ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE MID-WEST/ THUS
RESULTING IN A GLANCING BLOW FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL MANAGE TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY /MOS GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
TEMPS/. WITH THE SFC RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED COOLER AIRMASS EXITING THE
REGION BY TUESDAY...SFC WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH THEREBY
BUMPING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONCURRENTLY...FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SW DUE TO A PACIFIC UA
DISTURBANCE NEARING THE CALI SHORE. THE SFC SRLY REGIME WILL ALLOW
THE TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PWATS
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 0.5-0.8 INCHES. RECENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUED
TO TRACK THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE TO NORTH OF THE FOUR-CORNERS
REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH IS WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  34  75  36  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         63  35  76  37  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  35  74  37  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     63  37  73  37  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       62  37  74  38  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   63  36  72  38  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    64  37  72  37  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     62  36  72  40  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          63  38  73  39  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     63  38  71  44  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
409
FXUS64 KLUB 270822
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
222 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN LUBBOCK WOULD LIKE TO
WISH ALL A VERY HAPPY THANKSGIVING.  A FANTASTIC WEATHER DAY IT WILL
BE!

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR CHIHUAHUA.  WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.  COMBINED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM NICELY AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LOW AMPLITUDE UA RIDGING THAT WILL PROMOTE NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BREEZY AFTN W-SW SFC WINDS COURTESY OF SFC LEE
TROUGHING...COUPLED WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
SOARING INTO THE 70S DURING THE SAID PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY THREATEN
THE 78 DEGREE RECORD ON SATURDAY /SET IN 2012/. FURTHERMORE...THESE
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN EWRD PROPAGATING UA TROUGH ACROSS SRN
CANADA/NRN U.S. TIER ON SUNDAY...AS IT WILL BE SENDING DOWN A DRY
COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC AIRMASS TOWARDS THE
REGION...WITH SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE FRONT IMPINGING ON THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE REGION /ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE MID-WEST/ THUS
RESULTING IN A GLANCING BLOW FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL MANAGE TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY /MOS GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
TEMPS/. WITH THE SFC RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED COOLER AIRMASS EXITING THE
REGION BY TUESDAY...SFC WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH THEREBY
BUMPING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONCURRENTLY...FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SW DUE TO A PACIFIC UA
DISTURBANCE NEARING THE CALI SHORE. THE SFC SRLY REGIME WILL ALLOW
THE TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PWATS
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 0.5-0.8 INCHES. RECENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUED
TO TRACK THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE TO NORTH OF THE FOUR-CORNERS
REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH IS WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  34  75  38  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         60  35  75  39  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     60  35  74  39  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     62  34  74  36  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       62  35  73  38  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   61  34  73  36  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    60  34  74  36  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     61  38  72  43  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          61  36  72  39  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     61  39  72  45  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/29
612
FXUS64 KLUB 270533
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND WEAKEN THROUGH
THURSDAY. MODEST 1035 MB SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING BY JUST TO OUR EAST
TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE FOR A COOL NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. RENEWED
SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL WRANGLE CONTROL BACK IN TIME FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY...HOWEVER...WITH ENHANCED SOUTHWEST BREEZES AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. TRENDS...HOWEVER...SUPPORT A NOTCH LESS WARMING
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY MARKING THE ONLY NOTABLE
CONTENTION FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BEFORE TEMPERATURES
TUMBLE IN TIME FOR THE START OF DECEMBER.

THE WARM READINGS LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE A RESULT OF
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND NEAR FULL
INSOLATION AS A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGE TRAVERSES THE REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF FACTORS SHOULD SUPPLY THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH THREE
STRAIGHT DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. WE COULD EVEN THREATEN THE
RELATIVELY LOW RECORD HIGH OF 78 DEGREES /SET IN 2012/ AT LUBBOCK ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST IS JUST SHY OF THE RECORD.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE A PLEASANT STRETCH...THOUGH THE COMBINATION
OF WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
NATION WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN THE DOOR FOR MUCH COLDER AIR...WITH
ORIGINS IN THE ARCTIC..TO PLUNGE INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE CONUS
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE THRUST OF THE COLD AIR
INVASION WILL BE INTO THE MIDWEST...THOUGH EVEN WEST TEXAS SHOULD
RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FROPA WILL BE A DRY ONE...BUT IT WILL LIKELY KNOCK HIGHS BACK
DOWN INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
QUICKLY MODERATE BACK TOWARD AVERAGE BEYOND THAT AS SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE TUESDAY.

THINGS DO BECOME LESS CERTAIN TOWARD THE FAR END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NPW REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHING CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION THERE. HOWEVER...THE
GUIDANCE HAS NOW TRENDED WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH AS WHAT REMAINS OF
THIS OPENING SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE NATION TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT ONE POINT IT APPEARED WE
COULD SEE POPS RISE TOWARD NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...THOUGH THE
LATEST NWP TRENDS ARE LESS OPTIMISTIC AND MAY INSTEAD DRY SLOT WEST
TEXAS. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  64  34  75  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         28  60  35  75  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     30  60  35  74  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  62  34  74  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       30  62  35  73  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  61  34  73  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    30  60  34  74  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     30  61  38  72  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          30  61  36  72  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     32  61  39  72  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
076
FXUS64 KLUB 262327
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
527 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND WEAKEN THROUGH
THURSDAY. MODEST 1035 MB SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING BY JUST TO OUR EAST
TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE FOR A COOL NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. RENEWED
SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL WRANGLE CONTROL BACK IN TIME FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY...HOWEVER...WITH ENHANCED SOUTHWEST BREEZES AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. TRENDS...HOWEVER...SUPPORT A NOTCH LESS WARMING
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY MARKING THE ONLY NOTABLE
CONTENTION FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BEFORE TEMPERATURES
TUMBLE IN TIME FOR THE START OF DECEMBER.

THE WARM READINGS LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE A RESULT OF
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND NEAR FULL
INSOLATION AS A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGE TRAVERSES THE REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF FACTORS SHOULD SUPPLY THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH THREE
STRAIGHT DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. WE COULD EVEN THREATEN THE
RELATIVELY LOW RECORD HIGH OF 78 DEGREES /SET IN 2012/ AT LUBBOCK ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST IS JUST SHY OF THE RECORD.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE A PLEASANT STRETCH...THOUGH THE COMBINATION
OF WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
NATION WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN THE DOOR FOR MUCH COLDER AIR...WITH
ORIGINS IN THE ARCTIC..TO PLUNGE INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE CONUS
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE THRUST OF THE COLD AIR
INVASION WILL BE INTO THE MIDWEST...THOUGH EVEN WEST TEXAS SHOULD
RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FROPA WILL BE A DRY ONE...BUT IT WILL LIKELY KNOCK HIGHS BACK
DOWN INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
QUICKLY MODERATE BACK TOWARD AVERAGE BEYOND THAT AS SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE TUESDAY.

THINGS DO BECOME LESS CERTAIN TOWARD THE FAR END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NPW REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHING CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION THERE. HOWEVER...THE
GUIDANCE HAS NOW TRENDED WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH AS WHAT REMAINS OF
THIS OPENING SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE NATION TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT ONE POINT IT APPEARED WE
COULD SEE POPS RISE TOWARD NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...THOUGH THE
LATEST NWP TRENDS ARE LESS OPTIMISTIC AND MAY INSTEAD DRY SLOT WEST
TEXAS. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  64  34  75  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         28  60  35  75  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     30  60  35  74  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  62  34  74  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       30  62  35  73  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  61  34  73  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    30  60  34  74  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     30  61  38  72  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          30  61  36  72  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     32  61  39  72  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/99
345
FXUS64 KLUB 262104
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
304 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND WEAKEN THROUGH
THURSDAY. MODEST 1035 MB SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING BY JUST TO OUR EAST
TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE FOR A COOL NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. RENEWED
SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL WRANGLE CONTROL BACK IN TIME FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY...HOWEVER...WITH ENHANCED SOUTHWEST BREEZES AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. TRENDS...HOWEVER...SUPPORT A NOTCH LESS WARMING
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY MARKING THE ONLY NOTABLE
CONTENTION FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BEFORE TEMPERATURES
TUMBLE IN TIME FOR THE START OF DECEMBER.

THE WARM READINGS LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE A RESULT OF
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND NEAR FULL
INSOLATION AS A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGE TRAVERSES THE REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF FACTORS SHOULD SUPPLY THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH THREE
STRAIGHT DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. WE COULD EVEN THREATEN THE
RELATIVELY LOW RECORD HIGH OF 78 DEGREES /SET IN 2012/ AT LUBBOCK ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST IS JUST SHY OF THE RECORD.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE A PLEASANT STRETCH...THOUGH THE COMBINATION
OF WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
NATION WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN THE DOOR FOR MUCH COLDER AIR...WITH
ORIGINS IN THE ARCTIC..TO PLUNGE INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE CONUS
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE THRUST OF THE COLD AIR
INVASION WILL BE INTO THE MIDWEST...THOUGH EVEN WEST TEXAS SHOULD
RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FROPA WILL BE A DRY ONE...BUT IT WILL LIKELY KNOCK HIGHS BACK
DOWN INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
QUICKLY MODERATE BACK TOWARD AVERAGE BEYOND THAT AS SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE TUESDAY.

THINGS DO BECOME LESS CERTAIN TOWARD THE FAR END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NPW REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHING CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION THERE. HOWEVER...THE
GUIDANCE HAS NOW TRENDED WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH AS WHAT REMAINS OF
THIS OPENING SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE NATION TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT ONE POINT IT APPEARED WE
COULD SEE POPS RISE TOWARD NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...THOUGH THE
LATEST NWP TRENDS ARE LESS OPTIMISTIC AND MAY INSTEAD DRY SLOT WEST
TEXAS. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  64  34  75  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         28  60  35  75  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     30  60  35  74  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  62  34  74  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       30  62  35  73  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  61  34  73  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    30  60  34  74  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     30  61  38  72  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          30  61  36  72  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     32  61  39  72  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23
690
FXUS64 KLUB 261736
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1136 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING THROUGH
ROLLING PLAINS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA LEADING TO LIGHT SURFACE WIND
COMPONENTS AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR AT ALL THREE TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING MAY INITIALLY BRING SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS. THIS EVENING MAY WELL BE FANTASTIC
FLYING WEATHER FOR GA PILOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  TO OUR
NORTHEAST...AN EMBEDDED RIPPLE IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE A BIT OF A TROUGH
FORMS FROM EL PASO TOWARD HERMOSILLO.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS TO OUR NORTH...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS THE CWFA THIS MORNING.  AT
2AM...THIS COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
SHOULD CROSS OUR NORTHERN ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES BY 12Z THEN CLEAR
BY MID MORNING.  BRIEFLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP ALONG
THE TX/NM STATE LINE.  THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW THE WARM-UP JUST A
TAD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR 60S MOST LOCATIONS.

IF TRAVELING TODAY...CONDITIONS LOOK QUITE PLEASANT ACROSS THE SRN
CONUS.  STORMY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW
ENGLAND WITH LESS INTENSE SNOW CHANCES ACROSS MONTANA...THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UP ACROSS IOWA INTO NRN MN/WI...AND LIGHT RAIN
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  TRAVEL SAFELY!

LONG TERM...
AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC IS BEARING DOWN ON THE
WRN CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING THUS PROMOTING DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILST UA TROUGHINESS DOMINATES THE MID-WEST
AND ERN CONUS. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO /60S/...AS THE ONCE NRLY SFC WINDS PROVIDED
BY TODAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL VEER TO A SLIGHTLY BREEZY SRLY
FLOW COURTESY OF SFC LEE TROUGHING. INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS
FROM THE APPROACHING UA RIDGE COUPLED WITH AFTN W-SW SFC BREEZES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
IS SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORM FOR LATE FALL. BY SUNDAY...FLOW ALOFT
WILL BACK TO NEAR ZONAL THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. TIER CAUSING THE DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UA RIDGE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN EWRD PROPAGATING UA
TROUGH ACROSS CANADA THAT WILL SEND DOWN A COLD FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC AIRMASS TOWARDS THE REGION. LONG TERM SOLUTIONS
HINT AT THE DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY...THOUGH
THE COLDEST AIR APPEARS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND RESULT
IN A GLANCING BLOW FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NONETHELESS...TEMPS
WILL STILL DROP TO BELOW NORM /MAINLY IN THE 50S/ TO START OFF THE
FIRST DAY OF DECEMBER. THESE COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
AS SFC WINDS RETURN TO A SRLY FLOW AND THE NEARBY SFC RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEARS VALID. CONCURRENTLY...FLOW ALOFT
WILL COMMENCE TO BACK FURTHER TO THE SW AS AN UA PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES THE CALI SHORE. S-SE SFC WINDS WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING
GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH PROGGED PWATS
NEARING 1.00 INCH ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SAID
DISTURBANCE. THE GFS PUSHES THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE DESERT SW
EARLY IN THE WEEK TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MID TO LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN PRECIP CHANCES. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
HAS A MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH IT NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY LATE WEEK...THOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP. SOME FINE DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED
OUT...HOWEVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS IMPLYING THAT PRECIP CHANCES
WILL INCREASE BY MID-WEEK...WILL RESULT IN THE INSERTION OF
20-30 PERCENT POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        29  66  34  73  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         29  64  34  72  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     29  64  34  73  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     31  65  35  74  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       31  65  35  73  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  64  36  73  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    32  65  35  74  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     31  64  37  71  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          32  65  37  72  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     32  65  40  72  44 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
405
FXUS64 KLUB 261130
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
530 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR AT ALL THREE TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING MAY INITIALLY BRING SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS. THIS EVENING MAY WELL BE FANTASTIC
FLYING WEATHER FOR GA PILOTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  TO OUR
NORTHEAST...AN EMBEDDED RIPPLE IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE A BIT OF A TROUGH
FORMS FROM EL PASO TOWARD HERMOSILLO.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS TO OUR NORTH...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS THE CWFA THIS MORNING.  AT
2AM...THIS COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
SHOULD CROSS OUR NORTHERN ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES BY 12Z THEN CLEAR
BY MID MORNING.  BRIEFLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP ALONG
THE TX/NM STATE LINE.  THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW THE WARM-UP JUST A
TAD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR 60S MOST LOCATIONS.

IF TRAVELING TODAY...CONDITIONS LOOK QUITE PLEASANT ACROSS THE SRN
CONUS.  STORMY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW
ENGLAND WITH LESS INTENSE SNOW CHANCES ACROSS MONTANA...THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UP ACROSS IOWA INTO NRN MN/WI...AND LIGHT RAIN
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  TRAVEL SAFELY!

LONG TERM...
AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC IS BEARING DOWN ON THE
WRN CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING THUS PROMOTING DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILST UA TROUGHINESS DOMINATES THE MID-WEST
AND ERN CONUS. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO /60S/...AS THE ONCE NRLY SFC WINDS PROVIDED
BY TODAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL VEER TO A SLIGHTLY BREEZY SRLY
FLOW COURTESY OF SFC LEE TROUGHING. INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS
FROM THE APPROACHING UA RIDGE COUPLED WITH AFTN W-SW SFC BREEZES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
IS SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORM FOR LATE FALL. BY SUNDAY...FLOW ALOFT
WILL BACK TO NEAR ZONAL THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. TIER CAUSING THE DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UA RIDGE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN EWRD PROPAGATING UA
TROUGH ACROSS CANADA THAT WILL SEND DOWN A COLD FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC AIRMASS TOWARDS THE REGION. LONG TERM SOLUTIONS
HINT AT THE DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY...THOUGH
THE COLDEST AIR APPEARS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND RESULT
IN A GLANCING BLOW FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NONETHELESS...TEMPS
WILL STILL DROP TO BELOW NORM /MAINLY IN THE 50S/ TO START OFF THE
FIRST DAY OF DECEMBER. THESE COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
AS SFC WINDS RETURN TO A SRLY FLOW AND THE NEARBY SFC RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEARS VALID. CONCURRENTLY...FLOW ALOFT
WILL COMMENCE TO BACK FURTHER TO THE SW AS AN UA PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES THE CALI SHORE. S-SE SFC WINDS WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING
GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH PROGGED PWATS
NEARING 1.00 INCH ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SAID
DISTURBANCE. THE GFS PUSHES THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE DESERT SW
EARLY IN THE WEEK TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MID TO LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN PRECIP CHANCES. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
HAS A MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH IT NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY LATE WEEK...THOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP. SOME FINE DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED
OUT...HOWEVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS IMPLYING THAT PRECIP CHANCES
WILL INCREASE BY MID-WEEK...WILL RESULT IN THE INSERTION OF
20-30 PERCENT POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        56  29  66  34  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         55  29  64  34  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     55  29  64  34  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     57  31  65  35  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       57  31  65  35  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   60  30  64  36  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    59  32  65  35  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  31  64  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          58  32  65  37  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  32  65  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
528
FXUS64 KLUB 260908
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
308 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  TO OUR
NORTHEAST...AN EMBEDDED RIPPLE IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE A BIT OF A TROUGH
FORMS FROM EL PASO TOWARD HERMOSILLO.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS TO OUR NORTH...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS THE CWFA THIS MORNING.  AT
2AM...THIS COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
SHOULD CROSS OUR NORTHERN ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES BY 12Z THEN CLEAR
BY MID MORNING.  BRIEFLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP ALONG
THE TX/NM STATE LINE.  THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW THE WARMUP JUST A
TAD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR 60S MOST LOCATIONS.

IF TRAVELING TODAY...CONDITIONS LOOK QUITE PLEASANT ACROSS THE SRN
CONUS.  STORMY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW
ENGLAND WITH LESS INTENSE SNOW CHANCES ACROSS MONTANA...THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UP ACROSS IOWA INTO NRN MN/WI...AND LIGHT RAIN
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  TRAVEL SAFELY!

&&

.LONG TERM...
AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC IS BEARING DOWN ON THE
WRN CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING THUS PROMOTING DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILST UA TROUGHINESS DOMINATES THE MID-WEST
AND ERN CONUS. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO /60S/...AS THE ONCE NRLY SFC WINDS PROVIDED
BY TODAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL VEER TO A SLIGHTLY BREEZY SRLY
FLOW COURTESY OF SFC LEE TROUGHING. INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS
FROM THE APPROACHING UA RIDGE COUPLED WITH AFTN W-SW SFC BREEZES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
IS SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORM FOR LATE FALL. BY SUNDAY...FLOW ALOFT
WILL BACK TO NEAR ZONAL THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. TIER CAUSING THE DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UA RIDGE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN EWRD PROPAGATING UA
TROUGH ACROSS CANADA THAT WILL SEND DOWN A COLD FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC AIRMASS TOWARDS THE REGION. LONG TERM SOLUTIONS
HINT AT THE DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY...THOUGH
THE COLDEST AIR APPEARS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND RESULT
IN A GLANCING BLOW FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NONETHELESS...TEMPS
WILL STILL DROP TO BELOW NORM /MAINLY IN THE 50S/ TO START OFF THE
FIRST DAY OF DECEMBER. THESE COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
AS SFC WINDS RETURN TO A SRLY FLOW AND THE NEARBY SFC RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEARS VALID. CONCURRENTLY...FLOW ALOFT
WILL COMMENCE TO BACK FURTHER TO THE SW AS AN UA PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES THE CALI SHORE. S-SE SFC WINDS WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING
GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH PROGGED PWATS
NEARING 1.00 INCH ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SAID
DISTURBANCE. THE GFS PUSHES THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE DESERT SW
EARLY IN THE WEEK TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MID TO LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN PRECIP CHANCES. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
HAS A MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH IT NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY LATE WEEK...THOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP. SOME FINE DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED
OUT...HOWEVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS IMPLYING THAT PRECIP CHANCES
WILL INCREASE BY MID-WEEK...WILL RESULT IN THE INSERTION OF
20-30 PERCENT POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        56  29  66  34  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         55  29  64  34  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     55  29  64  34  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     57  31  65  35  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       57  31  65  35  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   60  30  64  36  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    59  32  65  35  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  31  64  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          58  32  65  37  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  32  65  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/29
044
FXUS64 KLUB 252332 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
532 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL SWING WIND AROUND TO THE NORTH IN THE MORNING BEFORE
GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THE AFTERNOON.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM...WILL
DIVE FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE TODAY INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FACILITATE DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
PULLING EAST INTO ROLLING PLAINS LATER TONIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPE
DOMINATING PRIOR TO A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD MID
TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY THOUGH WONT ACCOUNT FOR DRAMATICALLY
DIFFERENT TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY. A MATURE MOUNTAIN WAVE WILL
RELEASE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES PULLING THINNING HIGH CLOUDS
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT
SHOULD NOT DETRACT FROM A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO FOLLOW. WIND SPEEDS
ALSO NOT LOOKING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY MODEST NORTHERLY
BREEZES FOR THE MOST PART...TAPERING DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TREND TOWARDS SLIGHTLY
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER IS IN THE OFFING FOR LATE NOVEMBER AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE WEST TEXAS MID-WEEK GRADUALLY BACKS TO NEAR
ZONAL BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE TRANSLATES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY BE REPLACED BY A
WESTERN STORM SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED
MOISTURE TO MOST OF CALIFORNIA. CLOSER TO HOME...THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM
BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE PROSPECTS OF
ANY PRECIPITATION /SHOULD IT DEVELOP/ WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LIKELY HOLD UNTIL THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...JUST
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RECOVER BACK ABOVE AVERAGE ON THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY BREEZES RETURN BEHIND TOMORROW/S COLD FRONT AND SURFACE
RIDGING. A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
THEN PROVIDE A PERIOD OF BREEZY AND MILD DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM LATE
WEEK ON INTO THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE TRENDED FORECAST HIGHS UP SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH 70S A GOOD BET FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO ELEVATE THE
FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT. THE WARMTH SHOULD EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END
JUST IN TIME FOR DECEMBER AS A PASSING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OPENS
THE DOOR FOR A CHUNK OF COLD AIR WITH ORIGINS OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN
AND NORTHWEST CANADA. THE THRUST OF THIS COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE
DIRECTED TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY STILL SEE A
GLANCING BLOW LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BACKDOORS THROUGH THE
SOUTH PLAINS. WE HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR THE STRONGER/COLDER ECMWF
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S ON MONDAY. THE
COOL-DOWN SHOULD NOT LAST LONG THOUGH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY
TRANSLATES EAST AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ENVELOPS WEST TEXAS. A
RETURN OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD EVEN BRING THE RISK OF
LOW CLOUDS BY TUESDAY...THOUGH AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THE PROSPECTS
FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST UPPER TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  55  25  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         26  54  27  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     28  55  27  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     26  58  28  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       27  58  30  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   26  60  30  63  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    27  59  30  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  59  33  64  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          30  59  31  65  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     33  61  33  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
191
FXUS64 KLUB 252034
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
234 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM...WILL
DIVE FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE TODAY INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FACILITATE DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
PULLING EAST INTO ROLLING PLAINS LATER TONIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPE
DOMINATING PRIOR TO A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD MID
TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY THOUGH WONT ACCOUNT FOR DRAMATICALLY
DIFFERENT TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY. A MATURE MOUNTAIN WAVE WILL
RELEASE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES PULLING THINNING HIGH CLOUDS
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT
SHOULD NOT DETRACT FROM A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO FOLLOW. WIND SPEEDS
ALSO NOT LOOKING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY MODEST NORTHERLY
BREEZES FOR THE MOST PART...TAPERING DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TREND TOWARDS SLIGHTLY
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER IS IN THE OFFING FOR LATE NOVEMBER AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE WEST TEXAS MID-WEEK GRADUALLY BACKS TO NEAR
ZONAL BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE TRANSLATES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY BE REPLACED BY A
WESTERN STORM SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED
MOISTURE TO MOST OF CALIFORNIA. CLOSER TO HOME...THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM
BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE PROSPECTS OF
ANY PRECIPITATION /SHOULD IT DEVELOP/ WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LIKELY HOLD UNTIL THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...JUST
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RECOVER BACK ABOVE AVERAGE ON THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY BREEZES RETURN BEHIND TOMORROW/S COLD FRONT AND SURFACE
RIDGING. A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
THEN PROVIDE A PERIOD OF BREEZY AND MILD DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM LATE
WEEK ON INTO THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE TRENDED FORECAST HIGHS UP SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH 70S A GOOD BET FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO ELEVATE THE
FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT. THE WARMTH SHOULD EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END
JUST IN TIME FOR DECEMBER AS A PASSING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OPENS
THE DOOR FOR A CHUNK OF COLD AIR WITH ORIGINS OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN
AND NORTHWEST CANADA. THE THRUST OF THIS COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE
DIRECTED TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY STILL SEE A
GLANCING BLOW LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BACKDOORS THROUGH THE
SOUTH PLAINS. WE HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR THE STRONGER/COLDER ECMWF
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S ON MONDAY. THE
COOL-DOWN SHOULD NOT LAST LONG THOUGH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY
TRANSLATES EAST AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ENVELOPS WEST TEXAS. A
RETURN OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD EVEN BRING THE RISK OF
LOW CLOUDS BY TUESDAY...THOUGH AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THE PROSPECTS
FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST UPPER TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  55  25  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         26  54  27  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     28  55  27  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     26  58  28  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       27  58  30  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   26  60  30  63  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    27  59  30  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  59  33  64  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          30  59  31  65  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     33  61  33  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23
964
FXUS64 KLUB 251741
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
SURFACE LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM DIPPING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUR
SURFACE WINDS WILL RESPOND WITH AN INCREASE LIKELY INTO THE MID
TEEN KNOT RANGE AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAILING LOWER THIS
EVENING. MOST SOLUTIONS NOW DELAY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL NEAR OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY SO WE HAVE DELAYED THE
PREVIOUS NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT BOTH FOR KPVW AND KCDS. NO OTHER
APPARENT CONCERNS WITH DRY VFR REMAINING DOMINANT IN SLOWLY
DECREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MINOR HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS PANHANDLE WITH A DETACHING AND WEAKENING MOUNTAIN WAVE LEE
OF CENTRAL ROCKIES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

AVIATION...
TODAY WE WELCOME THE NEWEST TERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST SITE IN
THE USA -- PLAINVIEW/HALE COUNTY AIRPORT-KPVW. WEATHER INFORMATION
IS PROVIDED VIA A NON-FEDERAL AWOS-3 OBSERVATION PLATFORM AND
AVAILABLE ON 119.675 MHZ. THIS NEW TAF WILL BE ISSUED A MINIMUM OF
4 TIMES PER DAY /00Z...06Z...12Z...18Z/ WITH CONTINUOUS AMENDMENT
MONITORING.

ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS FIRST TAF HAS BEEN TRANSMITTED
SUCCESSFULLY VIA THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS UNDER WMO HEADER
FTUS44 KLUB. IF ANY ISSUES WITH RECEIVING THIS TAF ARISE...PLEASE
CONTACT THE NWS OFFICE IN LUBBOCK AT +1-806-745-4260.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL THREE TERMINALS.
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE FCST AREA LAST EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVED ACROSS WEST TEXAS. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TODAY AS A
FAST-MOVING UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SEWD FROM ALBERTA TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY ESTABLISH A SFC TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THOSE
DEEPENING PRESSURES WILL THEN HELP INCREASE WIND SPEEDS INTO THE
15-30 MPH RANGE FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA...THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SWRN PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS.
BREEZY WINDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT BE TOO DISSIMILAR
FROM YESTERDAY. THICKNESSES INCREASE SOME TODAY...BUT MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PLAY A ROLE. ALSO MUST NOTE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE WINDS...PARTICULARLY WESTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA. THUS SHOULD SEE A WARM UP FROM YESTERDAY NORTHWEST
WITH POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHT DROP IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. PREVIOUS FCST AND MOS GUIDANCE LOOK GREAT WITH ONLY VERY
SLIGHT MODIFICATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS TRICKIER WITH POTENTIAL FOR WEST
WINDS TO STAY ELEVATED SOME OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBILITY OF THEM
DECREASING AND VEERING TO THE NW LATE IN THE NIGHT. WILL TEND TO
FAVOR WARMER GFS-BASED MOS NUMBERS ATTM.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RELATIVELY QUIET
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
CONSIST OF AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS ERN PACIFIC...UA
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE NERN CONUS AND THUS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS SUCH...OUR AIRMASS WILL ORIGINATE
FROM THE PACIFIC VERSUS ARCTIC ORIGINS ACROSS THE MID-WEST.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UA DISTURBANCE DIVING SE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SEND DOWN A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW THUS BRIEFLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL NOT
DAMPEN TEMPS MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S STILL ANTICIPATED. TEMPS
WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE BY THANKSGIVING AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
COURTESY OF RISING HEIGHT FIELDS AND SFC LEE TROUGHING. WILL
THEREFORE SEE SLIGHTLY BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS DURING THE AFTN AND
AS A RESULT...HIGHS IN THE 60S ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND IN THE 60S
AND 70S BY THE WEEKEND /MOS GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED TEMPS A BIT
WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND/. CONCURRENTLY...WITH UA DISTURBANCES
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. TIER...FLOW ALOFT WILL
THEREBY BACK TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
FLOW ALOFT BACKING FURTHER TO THE SW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS
TO A PACIFIC UA DISTURBANCE NEARING THE CALI SHORE. S-SE SFC WINDS
WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SW...COULD PROMOTE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND HENCE COOLER TEMPS /50S AND 60S/. BEING THIS IS
DAY 7 AND BEYOND WE ARE REFERRING TO...THINGS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE
BY THEN. HOWEVER...10-12 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
/WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES/ ON TUESDAY APPEARS APPROPRIATE
ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  22  57  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         53  27  57  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  29  57  32  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     54  27  59  33  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       54  28  59  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  26  62  34  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    55  27  61  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  35  60  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          57  31  61  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     57  33  62  36  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
777
FXUS64 KLUB 251148
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
548 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
TODAY WE WELCOME THE NEWEST TERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST SITE IN
THE USA -- PLAINVIEW/HALE COUNTY AIRPORT-KPVW. WEATHER INFORMATION
IS PROVIDED VIA A NON-FEDERAL AWOS-3 OBSERVATION PLATFORM AND
AVAILABLE ON 119.675 MHZ. THIS NEW TAF WILL BE ISSUED A MINIMUM OF
4 TIMES PER DAY /00Z...06Z...12Z...18Z/ WITH CONTINUOUS AMENDMENT
MONITORING.

ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS FIRST TAF HAS BEEN TRANSMITTED
SUCCESSFULLY VIA THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS UNDER WMO HEADER
FTUS44 KLUB. IF ANY ISSUES WITH RECEIVING THIS TAF ARISE...PLEASE
CONTACT THE NWS OFFICE IN LUBBOCK AT +1-806-745-4260.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL THREE TERMINALS.
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE FCST AREA LAST EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVED ACROSS WEST TEXAS. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TODAY AS A
FAST-MOVING UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SEWD FROM ALBERTA TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY ESTABLISH A SFC TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THOSE
DEEPENING PRESSURES WILL THEN HELP INCREASE WIND SPEEDS INTO THE
15-30 MPH RANGE FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA...THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SWRN PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS.
BREEZY WINDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT BE TOO DISSIMILAR
FROM YESTERDAY. THICKNESSES INCREASE SOME TODAY...BUT MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PLAY A ROLE. ALSO MUST NOTE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE WINDS...PARTICULARLY WESTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA. THUS SHOULD SEE A WARM UP FROM YESTERDAY NORTHWEST
WITH POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHT DROP IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. PREVIOUS FCST AND MOS GUIDANCE LOOK GREAT WITH ONLY VERY
SLIGHT MODIFICATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS TRICKIER WITH POTENTIAL FOR WEST
WINDS TO STAY ELEVATED SOME OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBILITY OF THEM
DECREASING AND VEERING TO THE NW LATE IN THE NIGHT. WILL TEND TO
FAVOR WARMER GFS-BASED MOS NUMBERS ATTM.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RELATIVELY QUIET
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
CONSIST OF AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS ERN PACIFIC...UA
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE NERN CONUS AND THUS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS SUCH...OUR AIRMASS WILL ORIGINATE
FROM THE PACIFIC VERSUS ARCTIC ORIGINS ACROSS THE MID-WEST.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UA DISTURBANCE DIVING SE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SEND DOWN A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW THUS BRIEFLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL NOT
DAMPEN TEMPS MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S STILL ANTICIPATED. TEMPS
WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE BY THANKSGIVING AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
COURTESY OF RISING HEIGHT FIELDS AND SFC LEE TROUGHING. WILL
THEREFORE SEE SLIGHTLY BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS DURING THE AFTN AND
AS A RESULT...HIGHS IN THE 60S ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND IN THE 60S
AND 70S BY THE WEEKEND /MOS GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED TEMPS A BIT
WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND/. CONCURRENTLY...WITH UA DISTURBANCES
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. TIER...FLOW ALOFT WILL
THEREBY BACK TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
FLOW ALOFT BACKING FURTHER TO THE SW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS
TO A PACIFIC UA DISTURBANCE NEARING THE CALI SHORE. S-SE SFC WINDS
WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SW...COULD PROMOTE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND HENCE COOLER TEMPS /50S AND 60S/. BEING THIS IS
DAY 7 AND BEYOND WE ARE REFERRING TO...THINGS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE
BY THEN. HOWEVER...10-12 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
/WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES/ ON TUESDAY APPEARS APPROPRIATE
ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  28  57  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         53  30  57  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  31  57  32  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     54  30  59  33  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       54  32  59  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  32  62  34  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    55  31  61  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  35  60  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          57  35  61  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     57  36  62  36  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
727
FXUS64 KLUB 250802
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
202 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE FCST AREA LAST EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVED ACROSS WEST TEXAS. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TODAY AS A
FAST-MOVING UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SEWD FROM ALBERTA TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY ESTABLISH A SFC TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THOSE
DEEPENING PRESSURES WILL THEN HELP INCREASE WIND SPEEDS INTO THE
15-30 MPH RANGE FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA...THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SWRN PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS.
BREEZY WINDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT BE TOO DISSIMILAR
FROM YESTERDAY. THICKNESSES INCREASE SOME TODAY...BUT MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PLAY A ROLE. ALSO MUST NOTE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE WINDS...PARTICULARLY WESTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA. THUS SHOULD SEE A WARM UP FROM YESTERDAY NORTHWEST
WITH POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHT DROP IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. PREVIOUS FCST AND MOS GUIDANCE LOOK GREAT WITH ONLY VERY
SLIGHT MODIFICATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS TRICKIER WITH POTENTIAL FOR WEST
WINDS TO STAY ELEVATED SOME OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBILITY OF THEM
DECREASING AND VEERING TO THE NW LATE IN THE NIGHT. WILL TEND TO
FAVOR WARMER GFS-BASED MOS NUMBERS ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RELATIVELY QUIET
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
CONSIST OF AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS ERN PACIFIC...UA
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE NERN CONUS AND THUS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS SUCH...OUR AIRMASS WILL ORIGINATE
FROM THE PACIFIC VERSUS ARCTIC ORIGINS ACROSS THE MID-WEST.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UA DISTURBANCE DIVING SE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SEND DOWN A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW THUS BRIEFLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL NOT
DAMPEN TEMPS MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S STILL ANTICIPATED. TEMPS
WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE BY THANKSGIVING AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
COURTESY OF RISING HEIGHT FIELDS AND SFC LEE TROUGHING. WILL
THEREFORE SEE SLIGHTLY BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS DURING THE AFTN AND
AS A RESULT...HIGHS IN THE 60S ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND IN THE 60S
AND 70S BY THE WEEKEND /MOS GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED TEMPS A BIT
WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND/. CONCURRENTLY...WITH UA DISTURBANCES
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. TIER...FLOW ALOFT WILL
THEREBY BACK TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
FLOW ALOFT BACKING FURTHER TO THE SW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS
TO A PACIFIC UA DISTURBANCE NEARING THE CALI SHORE. S-SE SFC WINDS
WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SW...COULD PROMOTE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND HENCE COOLER TEMPS /50S AND 60S/. BEING THIS IS
DAY 7 AND BEYOND WE ARE REFERRING TO...THINGS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE
BY THEN. HOWEVER...10-12 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
/WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES/ ON TUESDAY APPEARS APPROPRIATE
ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  28  62  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         53  29  61  31  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  30  62  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     54  31  63  33  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       54  31  63  34  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  32  65  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    55  32  64  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  33  63  35  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          57  33  64  35  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     57  34  65  36  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29
785
FXUS64 KLUB 250533
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUES AFTN AS SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
QUIET WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE ABOUT
30-40 MPH LOWER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.  VERY DRY AIR HAS PUSHED
INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR ZERO RESULTING IN
RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT.  TEMPERATURES WERE STARTING TO CLIMB
ACROSS THIS SAME AREA THANKS TO A WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT BUT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WERE HOLDING TEMPS IN CHECK BY LIMITING
INSOLATION.  THE INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE APPROACH OF
A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE ALOFT WHICH WAS DIVING SOUTH OUT OF THE
ROCKIES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.   HIGHER DEWPOINTS WERE LOCATED TO
THE EAST OF THE CAPROCK WITH LOW/MID 20S REPORTED.  ENOUGH MOISTURE
WAS IN PLACE TO RESULT IN A CU FIELD ON TOP OF THE MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER.  UNFORTUNATELY THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ANY PRECIPITATION SO DRY FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE.

SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  MORNING LOWS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND EARLY IN THE DAY.  WIND WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE
TROF ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO.  WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE 15 TO 25
MPH WIND SPEEDS COULD DEVELOP.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
A RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DOMINATE THROUGH LATE WEEK
WHILE SLOWLY TURNING ZONAL. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE SOME
WHAT SPLIT AS THE AIRMASS INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER WILL ORIGINATE
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC VERSUS THE MID WEST WHOSE AIR MASS
ORIGINATES FROM THE ARCTIC. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WILL STAY PUT INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY SUPPLYING SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. BIGGER
WEATHER CHANGES MAY COME EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW A DEEP TROF OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY EARLY MONDAY WHICH
COULD BRING COOLER TEMPS BACK TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE GFS WITH PROGRESSION OF THE TROF IS ALSO TAPS IN TO SLIGHTLY
COLDER AIR. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN THEY ARE AT THE
PRESENT TIME THEY SHOULD NOT PLUMMET AS THEY DID JUST OVER A WEEK
AGO AS THIS TROF DOES NOT APPEAR TO TAP IN TO COLD ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        20  52  28  62  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         23  53  29  61  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     24  53  30  62  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     25  54  31  63  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       25  54  31  63  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   25  54  32  65  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    26  55  32  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     32  57  33  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          32  57  33  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     33  57  34  65  36 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24
897
FXUS64 KLUB 242325
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
525 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS TAF CYCLE WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT ASSCD WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. NRLY WINDS
THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL TURN SW IN THE AFTN TUE AND INCREASE AS SFC
TROUGH DEVELOPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
QUIET WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE ABOUT
30-40 MPH LOWER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.  VERY DRY AIR HAS PUSHED
INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR ZERO RESULTING IN
RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT.  TEMPERATURES WERE STARTING TO CLIMB
ACROSS THIS SAME AREA THANKS TO A WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT BUT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WERE HOLDING TEMPS IN CHECK BY LIMITING
INSOLATION.  THE INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE APPROACH OF
A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE ALOFT WHICH WAS DIVING SOUTH OUT OF THE
ROCKIES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.   HIGHER DEWPOINTS WERE LOCATED TO
THE EAST OF THE CAPROCK WITH LOW/MID 20S REPORTED.  ENOUGH MOISTURE
WAS IN PLACE TO RESULT IN A CU FIELD ON TOP OF THE MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER.  UNFORTUNATELY THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ANY PRECIPITATION SO DRY FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE.

SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  MORNING LOWS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND EARLY IN THE DAY.  WIND WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE
TROF ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO.  WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE 15 TO 25
MPH WIND SPEEDS COULD DEVELOP.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
A RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DOMINATE THROUGH LATE WEEK
WHILE SLOWLY TURNING ZONAL. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE SOME
WHAT SPLIT AS THE AIRMASS INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER WILL ORIGINATE
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC VERSUS THE MID WEST WHOSE AIR MASS
ORIGINATES FROM THE ARCTIC. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WILL STAY PUT INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY SUPPLYING SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. BIGGER
WEATHER CHANGES MAY COME EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW A DEEP TROF OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY EARLY MONDAY WHICH
COULD BRING COOLER TEMPS BACK TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE GFS WITH PROGRESSION OF THE TROF IS ALSO TAPS IN TO SLIGHTLY
COLDER AIR. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN THEY ARE AT THE
PRESENT TIME THEY SHOULD NOT PLUMMET AS THEY DID JUST OVER A WEEK
AGO AS THIS TROF DOES NOT APPEAR TO TAP IN TO COLD ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        20  52  28  62  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         23  53  29  61  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     24  53  30  62  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     25  54  31  63  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       25  54  31  63  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   25  54  32  65  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    26  55  32  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     32  57  33  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          32  57  33  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     33  57  34  65  36 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/51/24
894
FXUS64 KLUB 242052
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
252 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
QUIET WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE ABOUT
30-40 MPH LOWER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.  VERY DRY AIR HAS PUSHED
INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR ZERO RESULTING IN
RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT.  TEMPERATURES WERE STARTING TO CLIMB
ACROSS THIS SAME AREA THANKS TO A WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT BUT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WERE HOLDING TEMPS IN CHECK BY LIMITING
INSOLATION.  THE INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE APPROACH OF
A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE ALOFT WHICH WAS DIVING SOUTH OUT OF THE
ROCKIES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.   HIGHER DEWPOINTS WERE LOCATED TO
THE EAST OF THE CAPROCK WITH LOW/MID 20S REPORTED.  ENOUGH MOISTURE
WAS IN PLACE TO RESULT IN A CU FIELD ON TOP OF THE MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER.  UNFORTUNATELY THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ANY PRECIPITATION SO DRY FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE.

SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  MORNING LOWS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND EARLY IN THE DAY.  WIND WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE
TROF ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO.  WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE 15 TO 25
MPH WIND SPEEDS COULD DEVELOP.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
A RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DOMINATE THROUGH LATE WEEK
WHILE SLOWLY TURNING ZONAL. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE SOME
WHAT SPLIT AS THE AIRMASS INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER WILL ORIGINATE
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC VERSUS THE MID WEST WHOSE AIR MASS
ORIGINATES FROM THE ARCTIC. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WILL STAY PUT INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY SUPPLYING SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. BIGGER
WEATHER CHANGES MAY COME EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW A DEEP TROF OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY EARLY MONDAY WHICH
COULD BRING COOLER TEMPS BACK TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE GFS WITH PROGRESSION OF THE TROF IS ALSO TAPS IN TO SLIGHTLY
COLDER AIR. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN THEY ARE AT THE
PRESENT TIME THEY SHOULD NOT PLUMMET AS THEY DID JUST OVER A WEEK
AGO AS THIS TROF DOES NOT APPEAR TO TAP IN TO COLD ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        20  52  28  62  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         23  53  29  61  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     24  53  30  62  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     25  54  31  63  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       25  54  31  63  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   25  54  32  65  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    26  55  32  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     32  57  33  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          32  57  33  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     33  57  34  65  36 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/51
315
FXUS64 KLUB 241728 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES
ALREADY OUT. 34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WNW WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO LIGHT NLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO DRY NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE UA DISTURBANCE THAT PROMOTED
RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS WAS SHIFTING NE TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING. LEFT IN ITS WAKE WERE RATHER LIGHT ECHO RETURNS ACROSS
THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...FAR NW SOUTH PLAINS AND ERN NM...WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. GIVEN CONDITIONS
AT THE SFC ARE RATHER DRY /DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S/ IT IS
HARD TO SAY WHETHER ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH A
FEW FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
LIGHT W-NW SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM
YESTERDAY/S WIND SPEEDS...AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILST BACKING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. DESPITE
THE DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S
AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DISLODGE THE CAA BROUGHT IN BY
YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT. ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND DRAG IN ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
IMPINGE ON THE FAR NW SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN 03Z-06Z AND CLEARING
THE CWA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS
ARE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER
THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE COOL SIDE...THUS
LEADING TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW TX
PANHANDLE TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
NICE WEEK AHEAD AS DRY NWLY FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN TO OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK.
WHEN COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS EVERYTHING POINTS TO GRADUAL
WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK. NOT EVEN A DECENT COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND
WEAKER ONE WEDNESDAY WILL HALT THE WARMING AS HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE. MOS GUIDANCE IN THE BALL PARK WITH FEW
DEVIATIONS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99
332
FXUS64 KLUB 241721
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1121 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WNW WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO LIGHT NLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO DRY NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE UA DISTURBANCE THAT PROMOTED
RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS WAS SHIFTING NE TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING. LEFT IN ITS WAKE WERE RATHER LIGHT ECHO RETURNS ACROSS
THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...FAR NW SOUTH PLAINS AND ERN NM...WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. GIVEN CONDITIONS
AT THE SFC ARE RATHER DRY /DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S/ IT IS
HARD TO SAY WHETHER ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH A
FEW FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
LIGHT W-NW SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM
YESTERDAY/S WIND SPEEDS...AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILST BACKING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. DESPITE
THE DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S
AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DISLODGE THE CAA BROUGHT IN BY
YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT. ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND DRAG IN ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
IMPINGE ON THE FAR NW SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN 03Z-06Z AND CLEARING
THE CWA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS
ARE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER
THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE COOL SIDE...THUS
LEADING TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW TX
PANHANDLE TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
NICE WEEK AHEAD AS DRY NWLY FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN TO OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK.
WHEN COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS EVERYTHING POINTS TO GRADUAL
WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK. NOT EVEN A DECENT COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND
WEAKER ONE WEDNESDAY WILL HALT THE WARMING AS HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE. MOS GUIDANCE IN THE BALL PARK WITH FEW
DEVIATIONS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99
172
FXUS64 KLUB 241122
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
522 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WNW WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SLIGHTLY BREEZY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO DRY NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE UA DISTURBANCE THAT PROMOTED
RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS WAS SHIFTING NE TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING. LEFT IN ITS WAKE WERE RATHER LIGHT ECHO RETURNS ACROSS
THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...FAR NW SOUTH PLAINS AND ERN NM...WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. GIVEN CONDITIONS
AT THE SFC ARE RATHER DRY /DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S/ IT IS
HARD TO SAY WHETHER ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH A
FEW FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
LIGHT W-NW SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM
YESTERDAY/S WIND SPEEDS...AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILST BACKING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. DESPITE
THE DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S
AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DISLODGE THE CAA BROUGHT IN BY
YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT. ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND DRAG IN ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
IMPINGE ON THE FAR NW SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN 03Z-06Z AND CLEARING
THE CWA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS
ARE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER
THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE COOL SIDE...THUS
LEADING TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW TX
PANHANDLE TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
NICE WEEK AHEAD AS DRY NWLY FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN TO OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK.
WHEN COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS EVERYTHING POINTS TO GRADUAL
WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK. NOT EVEN A DECENT COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND
WEAKER ONE WEDNESDAY WILL HALT THE WARMING AS HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE. MOS GUIDANCE IN THE BALL PARK WITH FEW
DEVIATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  21  52  30  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  25  54  30  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  26  54  31  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     52  27  54  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       54  28  54  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   53  27  54  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    53  27  54  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     58  30  56  32  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          57  30  57  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  31  58  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
041
FXUS64 KLUB 240819
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
219 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO DRY NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE UA DISTURBANCE THAT PROMOTED
RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS WAS SHIFTING NE TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING. LEFT IN ITS WAKE WERE RATHER LIGHT ECHO RETURNS ACROSS
THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...FAR NW SOUTH PLAINS AND ERN NM...WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. GIVEN CONDITIONS
AT THE SFC ARE RATHER DRY /DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S/ IT IS
HARD TO SAY WHETHER ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH A
FEW FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
LIGHT W-NW SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM
YESTERDAY/S WIND SPEEDS...AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILST BACKING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. DESPITE
THE DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S
AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DISLODGE THE CAA BROUGHT IN BY
YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT. ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND DRAG IN ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
IMPINGE ON THE FAR NW SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN 03Z-06Z AND CLEARING
THE CWA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS
ARE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER
THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE COOL SIDE...THUS
LEADING TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW TX
PANHANDLE TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NICE WEEK AHEAD AS DRY NWLY FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN TO OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK.
WHEN COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS EVERYTHING POINTS TO GRADUAL
WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK. NOT EVEN A DECENT COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND
WEAKER ONE WEDNESDAY WILL HALT THE WARMING AS HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE. MOS GUIDANCE IN THE BALL PARK WITH FEW
DEVIATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  21  52  30  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  25  54  30  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  26  54  31  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     52  27  54  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       54  28  54  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   53  27  54  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    53  27  54  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     58  30  56  32  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          57  30  57  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  31  58  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07
744
FXUS64 KLUB 240523
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1123 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
ONLY CONCERN THIS CYCLE WILL BE PERHAPS A 5 PCT RISK OF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AT KLBB. OTHERWISE
TRANQUIL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS
BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS TO OUR NORTH. NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTH BUT NOT LETTING UP ON SPEEDS. STRONG WARMING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY COME DOWN AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY.
MID LEVEL RADAR RETURNS WERE OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. IT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
REMAIN LIQUID. THE LIFT WILL LIKELY EXIT THE REGION BEFORE THE AIR
MASS BECOMES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON UNDER DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT. A QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL MEAN NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. QUICK RETURN TO WESTERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW 60S
WITH A WEAK FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
IN THE DAY. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE RATHER NICE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND A BIT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. END OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE GFS
CONTINUES TO TRY TO BRING A FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES NEEDED.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  50  22  50  26 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         28  53  24  51  28 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     29  53  25  51  29 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  53  26  50  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       30  54  26  51  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  53  26  51  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    30  53  27  51  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  58  30  53  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          34  56  31  54  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     35  57  32  54  34 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
024
FXUS64 KLUB 232339
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
539 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS
BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS TO OUR NORTH. NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH VFR EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME LIGHT ICING AND DOWNBURST
ACTIVITY ALOFT INVOF VIRGA SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTH BUT NOT LETTING UP ON SPEEDS. STRONG WARMING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY COME DOWN AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY.
MID LEVEL RADAR RETURNS WERE OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. IT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
REMAIN LIQUID. THE LIFT WILL LIKELY EXIT THE REGION BEFORE THE AIR
MASS BECOMES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON UNDER DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT. A QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL MEAN NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. QUICK RETURN TO WESTERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW 60S
WITH A WEAK FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
IN THE DAY. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE RATHER NICE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND A BIT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. END OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE GFS
CONTINUES TO TRY TO BRING A FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES NEEDED.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  50  22  50  26 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         28  53  24  51  28 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     29  53  25  51  29 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  53  26  50  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       30  54  26  51  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  53  26  51  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    30  53  27  51  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  58  30  53  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          34  56  31  54  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     35  57  32  54  34 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99/26
081
FXUS64 KLUB 232105
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
305 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTH BUT NOT LETTING UP ON SPEEDS. STRONG WARMING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY COME DOWN AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY.
MID LEVEL RADAR RETURNS WERE OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. IT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
REMAIN LIQUID. THE LIFT WILL LIKELY EXIT THE REGION BEFORE THE AIR
MASS BECOMES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON UNDER DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT. A QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL MEAN NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. QUICK RETURN TO WESTERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW 60S
WITH A WEAK FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
IN THE DAY. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE RATHER NICE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND A BIT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. END OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE GFS
CONTINUES TO TRY TO BRING A FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES NEEDED.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  50  22  50  26 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         28  53  24  51  28 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     29  53  25  51  29 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  53  26  50  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       30  54  26  51  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  53  26  51  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    30  53  27  51  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  58  30  53  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          34  56  31  54  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     35  57  32  54  34 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

01/14
670
FXUS64 KLUB 231746 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1146 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS WERE LOWERING AND GENERATING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN ROLLING PLAINS BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY SOME MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AROUND 700-600MB. THIS LIFT WILL BE
FIGHTING THE STRONG DOWNGLIDE AT THE LOWEST LEVELS ALONG WITH
DRIER NEAR SURFACE AIR. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM WITH COLDER AIR
ARRIVING TOO LATE FOR SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT BLDU RESTRICTIONS AT KLBB. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARDS SUNSET AND
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH. LOW CLOUDS MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT EITHER TAF SITE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...
LIGHT BLOWING DUST HAS MANIFESTED ITSELF ALREADY THIS MORNING
UNDER STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. SOME OF THE BLOWING DUST MAY BE
MITIGATED AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SHIFTS THE WINDS TO
THE NORTH WHICH IS NOT AS A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR BLOWING
DUST. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO QUICK TO RISE UNDER THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RISE
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE BECOME RATHER BREEZY BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN /27-28 KTS/. A NOTABLE DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS
WILL TAKE SHAPE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET /BELOW 10 KTS/. THOUGHT
ABOUT INSERTING A BLDU AND VIS RESTRICTION...THOUGH THE BENEFICIAL
MOISTURE RECEIVED THIS FALL PREVENTED A MENTION AT THIS TIME. WILL OF
COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...SKC BY MID-MORNING BUT THE
PASSING OF SCT-BKN VFR DECKS OVERHEAD WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW WHICH PROVIDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF
THE ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY...CONTINUED TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS ERN
TX PER 08Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOOKING AT THE SFC...A
DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS WRN KS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SW SFC WINDS ON THE CAPROCK EARLY THIS MORNING /10-20
MPH/ WHICH IN TURN IS FILTERING IN DRYER AIR ONTO THE CAPROCK
/DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S/. HOWEVER...MOIST LOW LEVELS LINGER
OFF THE CAPROCK THEREBY PROMOTING SCT-BKN STRATUS AND LIGHT PATCHY
FOG. SINCE THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE DRYLINE BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO SHIFT EAST TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AT 09Z-10Z...HENCE SCOURING
OUT THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. NEAR SUNRISE...MOST OF THE
CWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BREEZY WRLY SFC WINDS.

AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO NEAR ZONAL LATER THIS MORNING ATTENTION
WILL TURN TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON
THE REGION NEAR SUNRISE...AND PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTN. LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ARE NOTED MORE SO ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WIND SPEEDS BROUGHT IN BY
THIS DISTURBANCE. CWA ABL MIXING TO AOA 700 MB WILL TAP INTO AN
IMPRESSIVE 60 KTS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. AS SUCH...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTING AT SFC WIND SPEEDS EQUATING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA /SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH/ APPEARS VALID. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL NOT BE DONE WITH US YET...AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL IMPINGE ON THE AREA BY LATE AFTN. PRESSURE RISES ON THE
ORDER OF 8 MB PER 3 HRS WILL PROMOTE PERSISTENT WIND ADVISORY
SPEEDS BUT FROM A NRLY DIRECTION. WILL THEREFORE BE ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY COMMENCING AT 16Z AND ENDING AT 00Z WHERE THEREAFTER...A
NOTABLE DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR.

BOTH DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE
TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ADVECTING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL WARM ONLY INTO THE LOWER 50S NW TO MIDDLE 60S SE...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S NW TO MIDDLE 30S SE.

LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER IN THE OFFING THIS WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE WRN CONUS. ONE MORE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL
REINFORCE COOL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. HOWEVER...INCREASES IN
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES AS THE UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES EWD POINT TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WILL RAISE TEMPS
THOSE DAYS IN LINE WITH GFS MOS. LATE WEEK STILL HAS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR TO MOVE INTO THE
FCST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CONTINUITY...RUN-TO- RUN
OR WITH EACH OTHER...AND ENSEMBLE MOS SHOWS A SPREAD OF 25 TO 30
DEGREES IN POSSIBLE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL
HOLD THE LINE FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO FCST NEAR MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        56  24  50  21  50 /  30  10   0   0   0
TULIA         58  28  53  24  51 /  20  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     60  29  53  25  51 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     63  30  53  24  52 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       64  30  54  27  52 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   64  30  53  26  51 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    65  30  53  27  52 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     63  34  58  31  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          68  34  56  29  55 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     72  35  57  31  55 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

01/99/99
954
FXUS64 KLUB 231622
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1022 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT BLOWING DUST HAS MANIFESTED ITSELF ALREADY THIS MORNING
UNDER STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. SOME OF THE BLOWING DUST MAY BE
MITIGATED AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SHIFTS THE WINDS TO
THE NORTH WHICH IS NOT AS A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR BLOWING
DUST. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO QUICK TO RISE UNDER THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RISE
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE BECOME RATHER BREEZY BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN /27-28 KTS/. A NOTABLE DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS
WILL TAKE SHAPE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET /BELOW 10 KTS/. THOUGHT
ABOUT INSERTING A BLDU AND VIS RESTRICTION...THOUGH THE BENEFICIAL
MOISTURE RECEIVED THIS FALL PREVENTED A MENTION AT THIS TIME. WILL OF
COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...SKC BY MID-MORNING BUT THE
PASSING OF SCT-BKN VFR DECKS OVERHEAD WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW WHICH PROVIDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF
THE ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY...CONTINUED TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS ERN
TX PER 08Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOOKING AT THE SFC...A
DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS WRN KS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SW SFC WINDS ON THE CAPROCK EARLY THIS MORNING /10-20
MPH/ WHICH IN TURN IS FILTERING IN DRYER AIR ONTO THE CAPROCK
/DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S/. HOWEVER...MOIST LOW LEVELS LINGER
OFF THE CAPROCK THEREBY PROMOTING SCT-BKN STRATUS AND LIGHT PATCHY
FOG. SINCE THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE DRYLINE BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO SHIFT EAST TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AT 09Z-10Z...HENCE SCOURING
OUT THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. NEAR SUNRISE...MOST OF THE
CWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BREEZY WRLY SFC WINDS.

AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO NEAR ZONAL LATER THIS MORNING ATTENTION
WILL TURN TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON
THE REGION NEAR SUNRISE...AND PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTN. LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ARE NOTED MORE SO ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WIND SPEEDS BROUGHT IN BY
THIS DISTURBANCE. CWA ABL MIXING TO AOA 700 MB WILL TAP INTO AN
IMPRESSIVE 60 KTS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. AS SUCH...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTING AT SFC WIND SPEEDS EQUATING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA /SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH/ APPEARS VALID. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL NOT BE DONE WITH US YET...AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL IMPINGE ON THE AREA BY LATE AFTN. PRESSURE RISES ON THE
ORDER OF 8 MB PER 3 HRS WILL PROMOTE PERSISTENT WIND ADVISORY
SPEEDS BUT FROM A NRLY DIRECTION. WILL THEREFORE BE ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY COMMENCING AT 16Z AND ENDING AT 00Z WHERE THEREAFTER...A
NOTABLE DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR.

BOTH DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE
TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ADVECTING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL WARM ONLY INTO THE LOWER 50S NW TO MIDDLE 60S SE...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S NW TO MIDDLE 30S SE.

LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER IN THE OFFING THIS WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE WRN CONUS. ONE MORE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL
REINFORCE COOL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. HOWEVER...INCREASES IN
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES AS THE UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES EWD POINT TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WILL RAISE TEMPS
THOSE DAYS IN LINE WITH GFS MOS. LATE WEEK STILL HAS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR TO MOVE INTO THE
FCST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CONTINUITY...RUN-TO- RUN
OR WITH EACH OTHER...AND ENSEMBLE MOS SHOWS A SPREAD OF 25 TO 30
DEGREES IN POSSIBLE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL
HOLD THE LINE FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO FCST NEAR MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        56  24  50  21  50 /  10  10   0   0   0
TULIA         58  28  53  24  51 /  10  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     60  29  53  25  51 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     63  30  53  24  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       64  30  54  27  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   64  30  53  26  51 /   0  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    65  30  53  27  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     63  34  58  31  54 /   0  10   0   0   0
SPUR          68  34  56  29  55 /   0  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     72  35  57  31  55 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

01
141
FXUS64 KLUB 231121
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
521 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE BECOME RATHER BREEZY BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN /27-28 KTS/. A NOTABLE DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS
WILL TAKE SHAPE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET /BELOW 10 KTS/. THOUGHT
ABOUT INSERTING A BLDU AND VIS RESTRICTION...THOUGH THE BENEFICIAL
MOISTURE RECEIVED THIS FALL PREVENTED A MENTION AT THIS TIME. WILL OF
COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...SKC BY MID-MORNING BUT THE
PASSING OF SCT-BKN VFR DECKS OVERHEAD WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW WHICH PROVIDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF
THE ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY...CONTINUED TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS ERN
TX PER 08Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOOKING AT THE SFC...A
DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS WRN KS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SW SFC WINDS ON THE CAPROCK EARLY THIS MORNING /10-20
MPH/ WHICH IN TURN IS FILTERING IN DRYER AIR ONTO THE CAPROCK
/DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S/. HOWEVER...MOIST LOW LEVELS LINGER
OFF THE CAPROCK THEREBY PROMOTING SCT-BKN STRATUS AND LIGHT PATCHY
FOG. SINCE THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE DRYLINE BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO SHIFT EAST TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AT 09Z-10Z...HENCE SCOURING
OUT THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. NEAR SUNRISE...MOST OF THE
CWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BREEZY WRLY SFC WINDS.

AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO NEAR ZONAL LATER THIS MORNING ATTENTION
WILL TURN TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON
THE REGION NEAR SUNRISE...AND PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTN. LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ARE NOTED MORE SO ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WIND SPEEDS BROUGHT IN BY
THIS DISTURBANCE. CWA ABL MIXING TO AOA 700 MB WILL TAP INTO AN
IMPRESSIVE 60 KTS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. AS SUCH...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTING AT SFC WIND SPEEDS EQUATING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA /SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH/ APPEARS VALID. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL NOT BE DONE WITH US YET...AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL IMPINGE ON THE AREA BY LATE AFTN. PRESSURE RISES ON THE
ORDER OF 8 MB PER 3 HRS WILL PROMOTE PERSISTENT WIND ADVISORY
SPEEDS BUT FROM A NRLY DIRECTION. WILL THEREFORE BE ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY COMMENCING AT 16Z AND ENDING AT 00Z WHERE THEREAFTER...A
NOTABLE DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR.

BOTH DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE
TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ADVECTING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL WARM ONLY INTO THE LOWER 50S NW TO MIDDLE 60S SE...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S NW TO MIDDLE 30S SE.

LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER IN THE OFFING THIS WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE WRN CONUS. ONE MORE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL
REINFORCE COOL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. HOWEVER...INCREASES IN
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES AS THE UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES EWD POINT TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WILL RAISE TEMPS
THOSE DAYS IN LINE WITH GFS MOS. LATE WEEK STILL HAS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR TO MOVE INTO THE
FCST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CONTINUITY...RUN-TO- RUN
OR WITH EACH OTHER...AND ENSEMBLE MOS SHOWS A SPREAD OF 25 TO 30
DEGREES IN POSSIBLE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL
HOLD THE LINE FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO FCST NEAR MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  24  50  21  50 /  10  10   0   0   0
TULIA         52  28  53  24  51 /  10  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     54  29  53  25  51 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     57  30  53  24  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       58  30  54  27  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   58  30  53  26  51 /   0  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    59  30  53  27  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  34  58  31  54 /   0  10   0   0   0
SPUR          62  34  56  29  55 /   0  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     66  35  57  31  55 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

29
471
FXUS64 KLUB 230853
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
253 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW WHICH PROVIDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF
THE ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY...CONTINUED TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS ERN
TX PER 08Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOOKING AT THE SFC...A
DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS WRN KS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SW SFC WINDS ON THE CAPROCK EARLY THIS MORNING /10-20
MPH/ WHICH IN TURN IS FILTERING IN DRYER AIR ONTO THE CAPROCK
/DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S/. HOWEVER...MOIST LOW LEVELS LINGER
OFF THE CAPROCK THEREBY PROMOTING SCT-BKN STRATUS AND LIGHT PATCHY
FOG. SINCE THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE DRYLINE BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO SHIFT EAST TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AT 09Z-10Z...HENCE SCOURING
OUT THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. NEAR SUNRISE...MOST OF THE
CWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BREEZY WRLY SFC WINDS.

AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO NEAR ZONAL LATER THIS MORNING ATTENTION
WILL TURN TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON
THE REGION NEAR SUNRISE...AND PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTN. LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ARE NOTED MORE SO ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WIND SPEEDS BROUGHT IN BY
THIS DISTURBANCE. CWA ABL MIXING TO AOA 700 MB WILL TAP INTO AN
IMPRESSIVE 60 KTS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. AS SUCH...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTING AT SFC WIND SPEEDS EQUATING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA /SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH/ APPEARS VALID. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL NOT BE DONE WITH US YET...AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL IMPINGE ON THE AREA BY LATE AFTN. PRESSURE RISES ON THE
ORDER OF 8 MB PER 3 HRS WILL PROMOTE PERSISTENT WIND ADVISORY
SPEEDS BUT FROM A NRLY DIRECTION. WILL THEREFORE BE ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY COMMENCING AT 16Z AND ENDING AT 00Z WHERE THEREAFTER...A
NOTABLE DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR.

BOTH DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE
TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ADVECTING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL WARM ONLY INTO THE LOWER 50S NW TO MIDDLE 60S SE...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S NW TO MIDDLE 30S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER IN THE OFFING THIS WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE WRN CONUS. ONE MORE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL
REINFORCE COOL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. HOWEVER...INCREASES IN
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES AS THE UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES EWD POINT TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WILL RAISE TEMPS
THOSE DAYS IN LINE WITH GFS MOS. LATE WEEK STILL HAS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR TO MOVE INTO THE
FCST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CONTINUITY...RUN-TO- RUN
OR WITH EACH OTHER...AND ENSEMBLE MOS SHOWS A SPREAD OF 25 TO 30
DEGREES IN POSSIBLE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL
HOLD THE LINE FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO FCST NEAR MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  24  50  21  50 /  10  10   0   0   0
TULIA         52  28  53  24  51 /  10  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     54  29  53  25  51 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     57  30  53  24  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       58  30  54  27  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   58  30  53  26  51 /   0  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    59  30  53  27  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  34  58  31  54 /   0  10   0   0   0
SPUR          62  34  56  29  55 /   0  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     66  35  57  31  55 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

29/07
756
FXUS64 KLUB 230509
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1109 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
DRYLINE HAS FINALLY PUSHED EAST OF THE KLBB TERMINAL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. KCDS SHOULD REMAIN
VARIABLE BETWEEN IFR/VFR THROUGH 08Z OR 09Z WHEN BOUNDARY STARTS
TO DRY OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. GIVEN THE MOIST FALL...AM HESITANT TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF BLDU FOR THE SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WINDY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AT LEAST MVFR REDUCTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY FROM 17Z UNTIL 22Z.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...
MOISTURE HAS PROGRESSED FURTHER WEST THAN ANTICIPATED WITH ABOUT
HALF THE CITY NOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT FOG.
INTERESTINGLY....THE DEWPOINT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AIRPORT AND
REESE IS ALMOST 25 DEGREES. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG EAST
OF THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE. CLEARING SHOULD START TO OCCUR IN
LUBBOCK BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE WEATHER WILL NOT BE SETTLING DOWN ON SUNDAY DESPITE THE
DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REPLACE THE MOIST CONDITIONS IN PLACE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. A STRONG
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WINDS WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS
WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW
SIDE OF GUIDANCE DEPICTS WINDS AT 500MB BETWEEN 60 AND 70KT. WE
WILL NOT LIKELY SEE MIXING TO 700MB BUT DEEP MIXING NONETHELESS
WILL BE ABLE TO CONTRIBUTE TO GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE
SURFACE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND AN IMPRESSIVE 60KT AT
700MB. ADDING A LITTLE COMPLICATION TO THE WIND FORECAST WILL BE
THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH. THERE MAY ONLY BE A LIMITED AREA
THAT THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THIS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...
WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY AS
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MOVING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP A COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME COOL AIR WITH THIS FRONT BUT IT ONLY DROP
TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY. FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL ALSO BE DRY AS LITTLE TO NO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE BUT THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THAT
ARRIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS COULD MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER
DUE TO A LACK OF INSOLATION WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM UP FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND SURFACE WIND SWINGS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST AS A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROF SETS UP SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH A POSSIBLE FRONT
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS BRINGING IN A
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SAGS A BACKDOOR FRONT IN TO THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE WASHING IT OUT.
WILL NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  52  25  49  20 /   0  10  10   0   0
TULIA         39  53  28  52  25 /  10  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     42  55  29  52  25 /  10  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     42  58  29  52  25 /   0   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       43  59  30  53  26 /  10   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   41  61  29  53  26 /   0   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    42  60  30  54  26 /  10   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     43  62  35  57  33 /  10  10  10   0   0
SPUR          45  63  34  56  33 /  10   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     46  66  34  58  33 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
431
FXUS64 KLUB 230250 RRC
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
850 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...
MOISTURE HAS PROGRESSED FURTHER WEST THAN ANTICIPATED WITH ABOUT
HALF THE CITY NOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT FOG.
INTERESTINGLY....THE DEWPOINT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AIRPORT AND
REESE IS ALMOST 25 DEGREES. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG EAST
OF THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE. CLEARING SHOULD START TO OCCUR IN
LUBBOCK BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AVIATION...
MOIST ADVECTION HAS PUSHED TO JUST WEST OF KLBB WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR LESS THAN 10 NM WEST OF THE TERMINAL. THIS HAS TRIGGERED
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR FOG AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THROUGH 06Z. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE SHOULD START MOVING EASTWARD BEFORE 06Z
AND BRING CLEARING SKIES. KCDS HAS LIKEWISE CONTINUED TO DEGRADE
WITH VISIBILITY AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR OR MVFR THROUGH AROUND
08Z. THEREAFTER...VFR IS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS. THAT
SAID...WINDS WILL PICK UP SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND BY
MID-SUNDAY MORNING...DOWNRIGHT WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. GA
PILOTS PLANNING TO FLY ON SUNDAY MIGHT WANT TO BRING AN EXTRA
STASH OF LINED BAGS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...
POSITION OF DRYLINE AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WILL
HOLD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AS SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE DOWN TO AROUND 2 DEG F ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER
08Z...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE MORNING. AS THIS IS THE FIRST
DECENT WIND EVENT AFTER A RATHER MOIST FALL...AM HESITANT TO
INTRODUCE MENTION OF BLOWING DUST ON SUNDAY BUT ALAS...WE WILL SEE
HOW THINGS GO.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE WEATHER WILL NOT BE SETTLING DOWN ON SUNDAY DESPITE THE
DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REPLACE THE MOIST CONDITIONS IN PLACE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. A STRONG
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WINDS WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS
WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW
SIDE OF GUIDANCE DEPICTS WINDS AT 500MB BETWEEN 60 AND 70KT. WE
WILL NOT LIKELY SEE MIXING TO 700MB BUT DEEP MIXING NONETHELESS
WILL BE ABLE TO CONTRIBUTE TO GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE
SURFACE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND AN IMPRESSIVE 60KT AT
700MB. ADDING A LITTLE COMPLICATION TO THE WIND FORECAST WILL BE
THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH. THERE MAY ONLY BE A LIMITED AREA
THAT THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THIS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...
WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY AS
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MOVING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP A COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME COOL AIR WITH THIS FRONT BUT IT ONLY DROP
TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY. FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL ALSO BE DRY AS LITTLE TO NO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE BUT THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THAT
ARRIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS COULD MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER
DUE TO A LACK OF INSOLATION WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM UP FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND SURFACE WIND SWINGS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST AS A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROF SETS UP SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH A POSSIBLE FRONT
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS BRINGING IN A
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SAGS A BACKDOOR FRONT IN TO THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE WASHING IT OUT.
WILL NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  52  25  49  20 /   0  10  10   0   0
TULIA         39  53  28  52  25 /  10  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     42  55  29  52  25 /  10  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     42  58  29  52  25 /   0   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       43  59  30  53  26 /  10   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   41  61  29  53  26 /   0   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    42  60  30  54  26 /  10   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     43  62  35  57  33 /  10  10  10   0   0
SPUR          45  63  34  56  33 /  10   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     46  66  34  58  33 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99
240
FXUS64 KLUB 230246
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
846 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014


.UPDATE...
MOISTURE HAS PROGRESSED FURTHER WEST THAN ANTICIPATED WITH ABOUT
HALF THE CITY NOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT FOG.
INTERESTINGLY....THE DEWPOINT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AIRPORT AND
REESE IS ALMOST 25 DEGREES. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WEST
OF THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE. CLEARING SHOULD START TO OCCUR IN
LUBBOCK BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

.AVIATION...
MOIST ADVECTION HAS PUSHED TO JUST WEST OF KLBB WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR LESS THAN 10 NM WEST OF THE TERMINAL. THIS HAS TRIGGERED
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR FOG AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THROUGH 06Z. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE SHOULD START MOVING EASTWARD BEFORE 06Z
AND BRING CLEARING SKIES. KCDS HAS LIKEWISE CONTINUED TO DEGRADE
WITH VISIBILITY AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR OR MVFR THROUGH AROUND
08Z. THEREAFTER...VFR IS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS. THAT
SAID...WINDS WILL PICK UP SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND BY
MID-SUNDAY MORNING...DOWNRIGHT WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. GA
PILOTS PLANNING TO FLY ON SUNDAY MIGHT WANT TO BRING AN EXTRA
STASH OF LINED BAGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...
POSITION OF DRYLINE AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WILL
HOLD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AS SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE DOWN TO AROUND 2 DEG F ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER
08Z...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE MORNING. AS THIS IS THE FIRST
DECENT WIND EVENT AFTER A RATHER MOIST FALL...AM HESITANT TO
INTRODUCE MENTION OF BLOWING DUST ON SUNDAY BUT ALAS...WE WILL SEE
HOW THINGS GO.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE WEATHER WILL NOT BE SETTLING DOWN ON SUNDAY DESPITE THE
DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REPLACE THE MOIST CONDITIONS IN PLACE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. A STRONG
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WINDS WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS
WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW
SIDE OF GUIDANCE DEPICTS WINDS AT 500MB BETWEEN 60 AND 70KT. WE
WILL NOT LIKELY SEE MIXING TO 700MB BUT DEEP MIXING NONETHELESS
WILL BE ABLE TO CONTRIBUTE TO GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE
SURFACE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND AN IMPRESSIVE 60KT AT
700MB. ADDING A LITTLE COMPLICATION TO THE WIND FORECAST WILL BE
THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH. THERE MAY ONLY BE A LIMITED AREA
THAT THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THIS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...
WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY AS
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MOVING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP A COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME COOL AIR WITH THIS FRONT BUT IT ONLY DROP
TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY. FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL ALSO BE DRY AS LITTLE TO NO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE BUT THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THAT
ARRIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS COULD MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER
DUE TO A LACK OF INSOLATION WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM UP FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND SURFACE WIND SWINGS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST AS A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROF SETS UP SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH A POSSIBLE FRONT
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS BRINGING IN A
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SAGS A BACKDOOR FRONT IN TO THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE WASHING IT OUT.
WILL NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  52  25  49  20 /   0  10  10   0   0
TULIA         39  53  28  52  25 /  10  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     42  55  29  52  25 /  10  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     42  58  29  52  25 /   0   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       43  59  30  53  26 /  10   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   41  61  29  53  26 /   0   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    42  60  30  54  26 /  10   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     43  62  35  57  33 /  10  10  10   0   0
SPUR          45  63  34  56  33 /  10   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     46  66  34  58  33 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
994
FXUS64 KLUB 230051
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
651 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
POSITION OF DRYLINE AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WILL
HOLD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AS SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE DOWN TO AROUND 2 DEG F ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER
08Z...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE MORNING. AS THIS IS THE FIRST
DECENT WIND EVENT AFTER A RATHER MOIST FALL...AM HESITANT TO
INTRODUCE MENTION OF BLOWING DUST ON SUNDAY BUT ALAS...WE WILL SEE
HOW THINGS GO.


&&

.AVIATION...
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS AND OR FOG WILL
PERSIST AT KCDS THROUGH AROUND 08Z WHEN DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED AT BOTH
TERMINALS. THAT SAID...WINDS WILL PICK UP SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE
FRONT AND BY MID-SUNDAY MORNING...DOWNRIGHT WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. GA PILOTS PLANNING TO FLY ON SUNDAY MIGHT WANT TO BRING
AN EXTRA STASH OF LINED BAGS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE WEATHER WILL NOT BE SETTLING DOWN ON SUNDAY DESPITE THE
DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REPLACE THE MOIST CONDITIONS IN PLACE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. A STRONG
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WINDS WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS
WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW
SIDE OF GUIDANCE DEPICTS WINDS AT 500MB BETWEEN 60 AND 70KT. WE
WILL NOT LIKELY SEE MIXING TO 700MB BUT DEEP MIXING NONETHELESS
WILL BE ABLE TO CONTRIBUTE TO GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE
SURFACE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND AN IMPRESSIVE 60KT AT
700MB. ADDING A LITTLE COMPLICATION TO THE WIND FORECAST WILL BE
THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH. THERE MAY ONLY BE A LIMITED AREA
THAT THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THIS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...
WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY AS
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MOVING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP A COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME COOL AIR WITH THIS FRONT BUT IT ONLY DROP
TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY. FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL ALSO BE DRY AS LITTLE TO NO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE BUT THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THAT
ARRIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS COULD MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER
DUE TO A LACK OF INSOLATION WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM UP FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND SURFACE WIND SWINGS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST AS A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROF SETS UP SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH A POSSIBLE FRONT
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS BRINGING IN A
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SAGS A BACKDOOR FRONT IN TO THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE WASHING IT OUT.
WILL NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  52  25  49  20 /   0  10  10   0   0
TULIA         39  53  28  52  25 /  10  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     42  55  29  52  25 /  10  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     42  58  29  52  25 /   0   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       43  59  30  53  26 /  10   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   41  61  29  53  26 /   0   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    42  60  30  54  26 /  10   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     43  62  35  57  33 /  10  10  10   0   0
SPUR          45  63  34  56  33 /  10   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     46  66  34  58  33 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99/26
327
FXUS64 KLUB 222324
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
524 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH THROUGH
03Z...THERE IS A RISK OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS AT KCDS. WINDS WILL PICK
UP AT BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND BECOME DOWNRIGHT WINDY BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL NOT BE PLEASANT FLYING WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
SUNDAY--MAY WANT TO CARRY EXTRA LINED BAGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE WEATHER WILL NOT BE SETTLING DOWN ON SUNDAY DESPITE THE
DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REPLACE THE MOIST CONDITIONS IN PLACE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. A STRONG
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WINDS WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS
WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW
SIDE OF GUIDANCE DEPICTS WINDS AT 500MB BETWEEN 60 AND 70KT. WE
WILL NOT LIKELY SEE MIXING TO 700MB BUT DEEP MIXING NONETHELESS
WILL BE ABLE TO CONTRIBUTE TO GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE
SURFACE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND AN IMPRESSIVE 60KT AT
700MB. ADDING A LITTLE COMPLICATION TO THE WIND FORECAST WILL BE
THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH. THERE MAY ONLY BE A LIMITED AREA
THAT THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THIS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...
WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY AS
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MOVING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP A COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME COOL AIR WITH THIS FRONT BUT IT ONLY DROP
TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY. FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL ALSO BE DRY AS LITTLE TO NO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE BUT THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THAT
ARRIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS COULD MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER
DUE TO A LACK OF INSOLATION WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM UP FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND SURFACE WIND SWINGS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST AS A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROF SETS UP SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH A POSSIBLE FRONT
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS BRINGING IN A
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SAGS A BACKDOOR FRONT IN TO THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE WASHING IT OUT.
WILL NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  52  25  49  20 /   0  10  10   0   0
TULIA         39  53  28  52  25 /  10  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     42  55  29  52  25 /  10  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     42  58  29  52  25 /   0   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       43  59  30  53  26 /  10   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   41  61  29  53  26 /   0   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    42  60  30  54  26 /  10   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     43  62  35  57  33 /  10  10  10   0   0
SPUR          45  63  34  56  33 /  10   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     46  66  34  58  33 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99
558
FXUS64 KLUB 222134
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
334 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE WEATHER WILL NOT BE SETTLING DOWN ON SUNDAY DESPITE THE
DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REPLACE THE MOIST CONDITIONS IN PLACE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. A STRONG
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WINDS WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS
WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW
SIDE OF GUIDANCE DEPICTS WINDS AT 500MB BETWEEN 60 AND 70KT. WE
WILL NOT LIKELY SEE MIXING TO 700MB BUT DEEP MIXING NONETHELESS
WILL BE ABLE TO CONTRIBUTE TO GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE
SURFACE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND AN IMPRESSIVE 60KT AT
700MB. ADDING A LITTLE COMPLICATION TO THE WIND FORECAST WILL BE
THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH. THERE MAY ONLY BE A LIMITED AREA
THAT THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THIS CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY AS
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MOVING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP A COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME COOL AIR WITH THIS FRONT BUT IT ONLY DROP
TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY. FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL ALSO BE DRY AS LITTLE TO NO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE BUT THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THAT
ARRIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS COULD MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER
DUE TO A LACK OF INSOLATION WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM UP FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND SURFACE WIND SWINGS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST AS A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROF SETS UP SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH A POSSIBLE FRONT
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS BRINGING IN A
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SAGS A BACKDOOR FRONT IN TO THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE WASHING IT OUT.
WILL NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  52  25  49  20 /   0  10  10   0   0
TULIA         39  53  28  52  25 /  10  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     42  55  29  52  25 /  10  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     42  58  29  52  25 /   0   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       43  59  30  53  26 /  10   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   41  61  29  53  26 /   0   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    42  60  30  54  26 /  10   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     43  62  35  57  33 /  10  10  10   0   0
SPUR          45  63  34  56  33 /  10   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     46  66  34  58  33 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14
827
FXUS64 KLUB 221720
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1120 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
TODAY. ALTHOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF
KLBB WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS KCDS...THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE EASTERLY MOVEMENT AND MAY NOT AFFECT THE
KCDS TERMINAL. WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS AND VISBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RETURN BUT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. STRONG WINDS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SURFACE
WINDS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AT BOTH TAF SITES. GIVEN THE TIME OF
YEAR...IT IS UNCLEAR ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY VISBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLDU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF LIFT IN AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT AREA MOVING OUT OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. THIS LIFT WAS RESULTING IN SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHERE SHORT TERM MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW NO
DEVELOPMENT. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING IN ANTICIPATION FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS. THIS LIFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VLIFR FOG AND LIFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KCDS THIS
MORNING...WITH KLBB VIS DROPPING BELOW 10 SM AND FEW DECKS BELOW
2000 FT AGL. WILL EXPECT KLBB TO FURTHER DETERIORATE LATER THIS
MORNING TO MVFR FOG AND IFR DECKS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CATEGORY BY MID-MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
WEST SOUTHWEST THIS AFTN AND BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY TOWARDS THE
END OF TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE UA LOW
DIGGING ESE ACROSS NWRN OLD MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
AID TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES LATER THIS MORNING.

AN AREA OF STRATUS AND FOGGY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS
ERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PER 08Z METARS...THUS COINCIDING WITH THE
BEST SFC MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S/. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
HAVE IMPACTED THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING
GIVEN A LOW TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD. THE HRRR SOLUTION HANDLED THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG QUITE WELL YESTERDAY...AND SINCE
IT SHOWS A CONTINUAL WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
UNTIL MID-MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REFLECT THAT PROGRESSION.

AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS WAS NOTED EAST OF THE
FA AND WITH THE AID OF A BIT OF UL SUPPORT FROM THE UA LOW ACROSS
NWRN OLD MEXICO...RADAR ANALYSIS DEPICTED SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY AREAS. WITH
THE LLJ PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AND A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE /PWATS INCREASING TO AOA 1.10
INCHES/...CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD POSE A  THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS
PWATS INCREASE TO ABOVE 1.00 INCH THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING.
FURTHERMORE...MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 40 KTS...SUGGEST SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
COULD APPROACH STRONG LEVELS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT
/PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/. STORMS WILL LINGER INTO
EARLY AFTN WHERE THEREAFTER...MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING A DRYING
PROFILE AND THE UA LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS SE TX WILL RESULT IN
PRECIP EXITING THE REGION. BY LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...A
DEEPENING SFC LOW PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
PROMOTE W-SW SFC WINDS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY BY THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORM TODAY /MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S/
FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT /UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S/.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS UNDERNEATH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS
UPPER FLOW WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE PERIODS OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE STRONGEST WINDS COMING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...POSSIBLY MEETING ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH THE WARMEST DAYS LIKELY
BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STILL SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
A BRIEF INCURSION OF COLD AIR TOWARD FRIDAY...BUT CERTAINLY NOW
CONSENSUS IN THAT REGARD ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  38  53  23  49 /  10   0  10  10   0
TULIA         67  40  53  25  52 /  20  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     67  41  56  26  53 /  20  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     66  42  60  27  53 /  20   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       66  43  61  27  54 /  50  10   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   65  41  62  28  53 /  30   0   0  10   0
BROWNFIELD    65  42  61  28  54 /  50  10   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     67  45  62  32  56 /  60  10   0  10   0
SPUR          67  45  63  35  58 /  60  10   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     69  46  66  34  58 /  80  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
970
FXUS64 KLUB 221506 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
906 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF LIFT IN AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT AREA MOVING OUT OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. THIS LIFT WAS RESULTING IN SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHERE SHORT TERM MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW NO
DEVELOPMENT. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING IN ANTICIPATION FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS. THIS LIFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VLIFR FOG AND LIFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KCDS THIS
MORNING...WITH KLBB VIS DROPPING BELOW 10 SM AND FEW DECKS BELOW
2000 FT AGL. WILL EXPECT KLBB TO FURTHER DETERIORATE LATER THIS
MORNING TO MVFR FOG AND IFR DECKS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CATEGORY BY MID-MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
WEST SOUTHWEST THIS AFTN AND BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY TOWARDS THE
END OF TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE UA LOW
DIGGING ESE ACROSS NWRN OLD MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
AID TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES LATER THIS MORNING.

AN AREA OF STRATUS AND FOGGY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS
ERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PER 08Z METARS...THUS COINCIDING WITH THE
BEST SFC MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S/. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
HAVE IMPACTED THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING
GIVEN A LOW TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD. THE HRRR SOLUTION HANDLED THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG QUITE WELL YESTERDAY...AND SINCE
IT SHOWS A CONTINUAL WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
UNTIL MID-MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REFLECT THAT PROGRESSION.

AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS WAS NOTED EAST OF THE
FA AND WITH THE AID OF A BIT OF UL SUPPORT FROM THE UA LOW ACROSS
NWRN OLD MEXICO...RADAR ANALYSIS DEPICTED SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY AREAS. WITH
THE LLJ PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AND A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE /PWATS INCREASING TO AOA 1.10
INCHES/...CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD POSE A  THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS
PWATS INCREASE TO ABOVE 1.00 INCH THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING.
FURTHERMORE...MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 40 KTS...SUGGEST SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
COULD APPROACH STRONG LEVELS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT
/PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/. STORMS WILL LINGER INTO
EARLY AFTN WHERE THEREAFTER...MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING A DRYING
PROFILE AND THE UA LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS SE TX WILL RESULT IN
PRECIP EXITING THE REGION. BY LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...A
DEEPENING SFC LOW PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
PROMOTE W-SW SFC WINDS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY BY THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORM TODAY /MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S/
FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT /UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S/.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS UNDERNEATH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS
UPPER FLOW WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE PERIODS OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE STRONGEST WINDS COMING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...POSSIBLY MEETING ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH THE WARMEST DAYS LIKELY
BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STILL SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
A BRIEF INCURSION OF COLD AIR TOWARD FRIDAY...BUT CERTAINLY NOW
CONSENSUS IN THAT REGARD ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  38  53  23  49 /  10   0  10  10   0
TULIA         67  40  53  25  52 /  20  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     67  41  56  26  53 /  20  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     66  42  60  27  53 /  20   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       66  43  61  27  54 /  50  10   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   65  41  62  28  53 /  30   0   0  10   0
BROWNFIELD    65  42  61  28  54 /  50  10   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     67  45  62  32  56 /  60  10   0  10   0
SPUR          67  45  63  35  58 /  60  10   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     69  46  66  34  58 /  80  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
437
FXUS64 KLUB 221124
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
524 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VLIFR FOG AND LIFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KCDS THIS
MORNING...WITH KLBB VIS DROPPING BELOW 10 SM AND FEW DECKS BELOW
2000 FT AGL. WILL EXPECT KLBB TO FURTHER DETERIORATE LATER THIS
MORNING TO MVFR FOG AND IFR DECKS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CATEGORY BY MID-MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
WEST SOUTHWEST THIS AFTN AND BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY TOWARDS THE
END OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE UA LOW
DIGGING ESE ACROSS NWRN OLD MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
AID TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES LATER THIS MORNING.

AN AREA OF STRATUS AND FOGGY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS
ERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PER 08Z METARS...THUS COINCIDING WITH THE
BEST SFC MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S/. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
HAVE IMPACTED THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING
GIVEN A LOW TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD. THE HRRR SOLUTION HANDLED THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG QUITE WELL YESTERDAY...AND SINCE
IT SHOWS A CONTINUAL WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
UNTIL MID-MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REFLECT THAT PROGRESSION.

AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS WAS NOTED EAST OF THE
FA AND WITH THE AID OF A BIT OF UL SUPPORT FROM THE UA LOW ACROSS
NWRN OLD MEXICO...RADAR ANALYSIS DEPICTED SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY AREAS. WITH
THE LLJ PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AND A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE /PWATS INCREASING TO AOA 1.10
INCHES/...CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD POSE A  THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS
PWATS INCREASE TO ABOVE 1.00 INCH THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING.
FURTHERMORE...MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 40 KTS...SUGGEST SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
COULD APPROACH STRONG LEVELS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT
/PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/. STORMS WILL LINGER INTO
EARLY AFTN WHERE THEREAFTER...MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING A DRYING
PROFILE AND THE UA LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS SE TX WILL RESULT IN
PRECIP EXITING THE REGION. BY LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...A
DEEPENING SFC LOW PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
PROMOTE W-SW SFC WINDS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY BY THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORM TODAY /MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S/
FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT /UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S/.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS UNDERNEATH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS
UPPER FLOW WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE PERIODS OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE STRONGEST WINDS COMING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...POSSIBLY MEETING ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH THE WARMEST DAYS LIKELY
BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STILL SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
A BRIEF INCURSION OF COLD AIR TOWARD FRIDAY...BUT CERTAINLY NOW
CONSENSUS IN THAT REGARD ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  38  53  23  49 /  10   0  10  10   0
TULIA         67  40  53  25  52 /  10  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     67  41  56  26  53 /  20  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     66  42  60  27  53 /  20   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       66  43  61  27  54 /  20  10   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   65  41  62  28  53 /  20   0   0  10   0
BROWNFIELD    65  42  61  28  54 /  20  10   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     67  45  62  32  56 /  30  10   0  10   0
SPUR          67  45  63  35  58 /  50  10   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     69  46  66  34  58 /  80  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
914
FXUS64 KLUB 220814
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
214 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE UA LOW
DIGGING ESE ACROSS NWRN OLD MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
AID TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES LATER THIS MORNING.

AN AREA OF STRATUS AND FOGGY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS
ERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PER 08Z METARS...THUS COINCIDING WITH THE
BEST SFC MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S/. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
HAVE IMPACTED THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING
GIVEN A LOW TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD. THE HRRR SOLUTION HANDLED THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG QUITE WELL YESTERDAY...AND SINCE
IT SHOWS A CONTINUAL WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
UNTIL MID-MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REFLECT THAT PROGRESSION.

AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS WAS NOTED EAST OF THE
FA AND WITH THE AID OF A BIT OF UL SUPPORT FROM THE UA LOW ACROSS
NWRN OLD MEXICO...RADAR ANALYSIS DEPICTED SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY AREAS. WITH
THE LLJ PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AND A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE /PWATS INCREASING TO AOA 1.10
INCHES/...CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD POSE A  THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS
PWATS INCREASE TO ABOVE 1.00 INCH THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING.
FURTHERMORE...MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 40 KTS...SUGGEST SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
COULD APPROACH STRONG LEVELS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT
/PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/. STORMS WILL LINGER INTO
EARLY AFTN WHERE THEREAFTER...MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING A DRYING
PROFILE AND THE UA LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS SE TX WILL RESULT IN
PRECIP EXITING THE REGION. BY LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...A
DEEPENING SFC LOW PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
PROMOTE W-SW SFC WINDS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY BY THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORM TODAY /MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S/
FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT /UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S/.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NO SIGNFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS UNDERNEATH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS
UPPER FLOW WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE PERIODS OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE STRONGEST WINDS COMING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...POSSIBLY MEETING ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH THE WARMEST DAYS LIKELY
BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STILL SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
A BRIEF INCURSION OF COLD AIR TOWARD FRIDAY...BUT CERTAINLY NOW
CONSENSUS IN THAT REGARD ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  38  53  26  48 /  10   0  10  10   0
TULIA         66  40  56  30  50 /  20  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     66  42  58  31  51 /  20  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     65  43  60  31  51 /  20  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       66  44  61  32  52 /  30  10  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   65  42  63  31  52 /  20  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    66  43  63  31  53 /  30  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     65  45  63  37  56 /  60  10  10  10   0
SPUR          67  48  65  37  56 /  60  10   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     67  49  67  39  57 /  80  20   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07
647
FXUS64 KLUB 220552
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1152 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN RADAR TRENDS SHOWING PRECIPITATION
FIRING EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. SHOULD STILL SEE SOME ACTIVITY
WITH APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT WILL ADVERTISE THIS EASTWARD
TREND WHERE MUCH RICHER MOISTURE RESIDES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S/60S. FOG CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD...BUT NOT EXPECTING A LONG
DURATION OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES
SETTLING IN AT KCDS. EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS TO TAKE PLACE IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO...LIKELY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING.
COULD SEE SOME MVFR MIXED IN...BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN IFR IF
TRENDS CONTINUE. KLBB SHOULD DEGRADE TO MVFR WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH IFR A GOOD BET BY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BOTH SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME MIXING. REGARDING TSRA
POTENTIAL...WITH PRECIPITATION INITIATING EAST OF KCDS WHERE MUCH
RICHER MOISTURE RESIDES...HAVE PULLED MENTION FOR NOW BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FOR TONIGHT AS READINGS HAVE
APPROACHED FORECAST LOWS IN LOCATIONS WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE SLOWER TO FILL IN THAN EXPECTED. BRUNT OF LIFT WITH UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO NUDGE INTO WEST TEXAS...SO WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE WHERE GREATER MOISTURE RESIDES IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS SAID LIFT MOVES OVERHEAD. FOG
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND EASTERN
ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. EXPECT THIS TO
SPREAD WESTWARD WITH TIME THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES SONORA INTO CHIHUAHUA. INCREASING MOISTURE
ON SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LOWER CEILINGS AND ALLOW FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS. HAVE KEPT IFR CEILINGS AT KCDS
FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PREVAILING
-TSRA MENTION AROUND THE 09-14Z TIMEFRAME. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO
DROP TO IFR...ALTHOUGH...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
LIFR. FORECASTING KLBB TO DIP DOWN TO MVFR CRITERIA THIS EVENING
BEFORE IFR SETS IN AROUND 09Z. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
EAST OF KLBB...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD ENSUE BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DWINDLING
RAIN CHANCES AND DAYTIME MIXING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST MODEL ITERATIONS HAVE
CONTINUED THEIR TRENDS OF DIGGING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
THAN EVEN JUST 24 HOURS AGO. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GOOD INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AT MOST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE DEEPEST LIFT
WILL CIRCUMVENT THE REGION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND POINTS EASTWARD. THIS IS ALSO
EVIDENCED BY THE STRONGEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA. BACKING WINDS ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES THIS EVENING
WILL GARNER SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE CAPROCK WILL NOT BE COUPLED
WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL LIFT FROM THIS TROUGH. THEREFORE ANY
PRECIPITATION ON THE CAPROCK WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT. LIFT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GREATER THAN ONE INCH OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND NEAR
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ON THE CAPROCK. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME WILL ALLOW ELEVATED INSTABILITIES TO RISE OVERNIGHT
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. THESE INSTABILITIES
COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40KT MAY CREATE SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THUNDER WILL BE LIKELY IN THIS
ATMOSPHERE...SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN
VERY LOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST DRY AIR CAN PUSH ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT MOST LIKELY SCENARIO HAS THE
PRECIPITATION ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO BUMP WIND SPEEDS
POTENTIALLY UP INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP US DRY AND COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT STRONGER AND TAKING
IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
STRONG THE FRONT WILL BE AS THE ECMWF WOULD FAVOR TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF WHAT THE MODELS HAVE FOR THURSDAY. COOL DOWN COULD
BE MODERATED SOME BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA
AT THE SAME TIME AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO SWING
SURFACE WIND TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM
THINGS UP AND MAY BRING RETURN FLOW/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BACK
TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MODELS CONTINUE
TO TRY AND GENERATE SOME QPF IN THE LATTER PERIODS BUT KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  37  66  38  53 /   0   0  10   0  10
TULIA         65  39  66  40  56 /   0  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     68  41  66  42  58 /   0  10  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     68  40  65  43  60 /   0  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  43  66  44  61 /   0  20  30  10  10
DENVER CITY   70  44  65  42  63 /   0  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  43  66  43  63 /   0  20  30  10  10
CHILDRESS     56  40  65  45  63 /   0  40  60  10  10
SPUR          66  46  67  48  65 /   0  40  60  10   0
ASPERMONT     72  48  67  49  67 /  10  60  80  20   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
693
FXUS64 KLUB 220358
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
958 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FOR TONIGHT AS READINGS HAVE
APPROACHED FORECAST LOWS IN LOCATIONS WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE SLOWER TO FILL IN THAN EXPECTED. BRUNT OF LIFT WITH UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO NUDGE INTO WEST TEXAS...SO WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE WHERE GREATER MOISTURE RESIDES IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS SAID LIFT MOVES OVERHEAD. FOG
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND EASTERN
ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. EXPECT THIS TO
SPREAD WESTWARD WITH TIME THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES SONORA INTO CHIHUAHUA. INCREASING MOISTURE
ON SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LOWER CEILINGS AND ALLOW FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS. HAVE KEPT IFR CEILINGS AT KCDS
FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PREVAILING
-TSRA MENTION AROUND THE 09-14Z TIMEFRAME. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO
DROP TO IFR...ALTHOUGH...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
LIFR. FORECASTING KLBB TO DIP DOWN TO MVFR CRITERIA THIS EVENING
BEFORE IFR SETS IN AROUND 09Z. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
EAST OF KLBB...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD ENSUE BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DWINDLING
RAIN CHANCES AND DAYTIME MIXING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST MODEL ITERATIONS HAVE
CONTINUED THEIR TRENDS OF DIGGING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
THAN EVEN JUST 24 HOURS AGO. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GOOD INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AT MOST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE DEEPEST LIFT
WILL CIRCUMVENT THE REGION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND POINTS EASTWARD. THIS IS ALSO
EVIDENCED BY THE STRONGEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA. BACKING WINDS ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES THIS EVENING
WILL GARNER SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE CAPROCK WILL NOT BE COUPLED
WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL LIFT FROM THIS TROUGH. THEREFORE ANY
PRECIPITATION ON THE CAPROCK WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT. LIFT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GREATER THAN ONE INCH OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND NEAR
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ON THE CAPROCK. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME WILL ALLOW ELEVATED INSTABILITIES TO RISE OVERNIGHT
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. THESE INSTABILITIES
COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40KT MAY CREATE SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THUNDER WILL BE LIKELY IN THIS
ATMOSPHERE...SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN
VERY LOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST DRY AIR CAN PUSH ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT MOST LIKELY SCENARIO HAS THE
PRECIPITATION ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO BUMP WIND SPEEDS
POTENTIALLY UP INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP US DRY AND COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT STRONGER AND TAKING
IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
STRONG THE FRONT WILL BE AS THE ECMWF WOULD FAVOR TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF WHAT THE MODELS HAVE FOR THURSDAY. COOL DOWN COULD
BE MODERATED SOME BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA
AT THE SAME TIME AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO SWING
SURFACE WIND TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM
THINGS UP AND MAY BRING RETURN FLOW/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BACK
TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MODELS CONTINUE
TO TRY AND GENERATE SOME QPF IN THE LATTER PERIODS BUT KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  66  38  53  26 /  10  10   0  10  10
TULIA         39  66  40  56  30 /  20  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     41  66  42  58  31 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     40  65  43  60  31 /  30  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       43  66  44  61  32 /  30  30  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   44  65  42  63  31 /  30  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    43  66  43  63  31 /  30  30  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     40  65  45  63  37 /  60  60  10  10  10
SPUR          46  67  48  65  37 /  60  60  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     48  67  49  67  39 /  80  80  20   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
491
FXUS64 KLUB 220006
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
606 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES SONORA INTO CHIHUAHUA. INCREASING MOISTURE
ON SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LOWER CEILINGS AND ALLOW FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS. HAVE KEPT IFR CEILINGS AT KCDS
FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PREVAILING
-TSRA MENTION AROUND THE 09-14Z TIMEFRAME. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO
DROP TO IFR...ALTHOUGH...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
LIFR. FORECASTING KLBB TO DIP DOWN TO MVFR CRITERIA THIS EVENING
BEFORE IFR SETS IN AROUND 09Z. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
EAST OF KLBB...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD ENSUE BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DWINDLING
RAIN CHANCES AND DAYTIME MIXING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST MODEL ITERATIONS HAVE
CONTINUED THEIR TRENDS OF DIGGING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
THAN EVEN JUST 24 HOURS AGO. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GOOD INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AT MOST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE DEEPEST LIFT
WILL CIRCUMVENT THE REGION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND POINTS EASTWARD. THIS IS ALSO
EVIDENCED BY THE STRONGEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA. BACKING WINDS ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES THIS EVENING
WILL GARNER SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE CAPROCK WILL NOT BE COUPLED
WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL LIFT FROM THIS TROUGH. THEREFORE ANY
PRECIPITATION ON THE CAPROCK WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT. LIFT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GREATER THAN ONE INCH OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND NEAR
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ON THE CAPROCK. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME WILL ALLOW ELEVATED INSTABILITIES TO RISE OVERNIGHT
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. THESE INSTABILITIES
COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40KT MAY CREATE SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THUNDER WILL BE LIKELY IN THIS
ATMOSPHERE...SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN
VERY LOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST DRY AIR CAN PUSH ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT MOST LIKELY SCENARIO HAS THE
PRECIPITATION ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO BUMP WIND SPEEDS
POTENTIALLY UP INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP US DRY AND COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT STRONGER AND TAKING
IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
STRONG THE FRONT WILL BE AS THE ECMWF WOULD FAVOR TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF WHAT THE MODELS HAVE FOR THURSDAY. COOL DOWN COULD
BE MODERATED SOME BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA
AT THE SAME TIME AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO SWING
SURFACE WIND TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM
THINGS UP AND MAY BRING RETURN FLOW/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BACK
TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MODELS CONTINUE
TO TRY AND GENERATE SOME QPF IN THE LATTER PERIODS BUT KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  66  38  53  26 /  10  10   0  10  10
TULIA         40  66  40  56  30 /  20  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     41  66  42  58  31 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     41  65  43  60  31 /  30  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       44  66  44  61  32 /  30  30  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   43  65  42  63  31 /  30  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    44  66  43  63  31 /  30  30  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     46  65  45  63  37 /  60  60  10  10  10
SPUR          46  67  48  65  37 /  60  60  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     50  67  49  67  39 /  80  80  20   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
845
FXUS64 KLUB 212122
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
322 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST MODEL ITERATIONS HAVE
CONTINUED THEIR TRENDS OF DIGGING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
THAN EVEN JUST 24 HOURS AGO. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GOOD INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AT MOST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE DEEPEST LIFT
WILL CIRCUMVENT THE REGION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND POINTS EASTWARD. THIS IS ALSO
EVIDENCED BY THE STRONGEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA. BACKING WINDS ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES THIS EVENING
WILL GARNER SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE CAPROCK WILL NOT BE COUPLED
WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL LIFT FROM THIS TROUGH. THEREFORE ANY
PRECIPITATION ON THE CAPROCK WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT. LIFT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GREATER THAN ONE INCH OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND NEAR
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ON THE CAPROCK. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME WILL ALLOW ELEVATED INSTABILITIES TO RISE OVERNIGHT
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. THESE INSTABILITIES
COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40KT MAY CREATE SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THUNDER WILL BE LIKELY IN THIS
ATMOSPHERE...SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN
VERY LOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST DRY AIR CAN PUSH ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT MOST LIKELY SCENARIO HAS THE
PRECIPITATION ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO BUMP WIND SPEEDS
POTENTIALLY UP INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP US DRY AND COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT STRONGER AND TAKING
IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
STRONG THE FRONT WILL BE AS THE ECMWF WOULD FAVOR TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF WHAT THE MODELS HAVE FOR THURSDAY. COOL DOWN COULD
BE MODERATED SOME BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA
AT THE SAME TIME AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO SWING
SURFACE WIND TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM
THINGS UP AND MAY BRING RETURN FLOW/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BACK
TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MODELS CONTINUE
TO TRY AND GENERATE SOME QPF IN THE LATTER PERIODS BUT KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  66  38  53  26 /  10  10   0  10  10
TULIA         40  66  40  56  30 /  20  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     41  66  42  58  31 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     41  65  43  60  31 /  30  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       44  66  44  61  32 /  30  30  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   43  65  42  63  31 /  30  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    44  66  43  63  31 /  30  30  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     46  65  45  63  37 /  60  60  10  10  10
SPUR          46  67  48  65  37 /  60  60  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     50  67  49  67  39 /  80  80  20   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14
510
FXUS64 KLUB 211750
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW LOWER COLORADO VALLEY AT 18Z WILL MOVE TO JUST WEST OF
THE TEXAS BIG BEND BY 18Z SATURDAY. FLOW WILL BACK WITH APPROACH
OF THIS LOW ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MODEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD KLBB DURING
THE NIGHT...AND KCDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. KLBB
LOOKS LIKE ON BORDERLINE WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER...BETTER CHANCE
TO THE EAST...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A TEMPO OR PROB MENTION. PERHAPS
A HIGHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE THOUGH WHICH WILL NEED
ADDITIONAL ASSESSMENT. RETAINED PREVIOUS TEMPO THUNDER FOR KCDS
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MUST ALSO BE MENTIONED THAT
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK
FOR KCDS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN. BUT THE INITIAL PROBLEM
WILL BE A RISK FOR LIFR CEILINGS BY MID EVENING FOR BOTH SITES...
WHICH HAS BEEN EXPLICITLY MENTIONED. CANNOT RULE OUT GOING DOWN
HARD ON VISIBILITY FROM DENSE FOG AS WELL THOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT AS
HIGH. MENTION OF LIGHT FOG ONLY FOR NOW. STRATUS LAYER CURRENTLY
OVER KCDS APPEARS STARTING NOW TO BE SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST AS A HIGH LEVEL IMPULSE AND THICKER CLOUDS ALOFT
CLEAR AWAY. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT AT KCDS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE RETURNING BY MID-EVENING. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
MID MORNING UPDATE FOR MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO
PERSISTENT FOG IN PARTS OF ROLLING PLAINS. RMCQUEEN

AVIATION...
KCDS HAS GONE DOWN HARD IN THE PAST HALF HOUR AS STRATUS LAYER HAS
MOVED IN. LATEST HRRR AND RAP SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATE GOOD
CHANCE THIS WILL BE PERSISTENT LATE INTO THE MORNING. STRATUS
LAYER SOUTH OF KLBB...MEANTIME...HAS NOT MADE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH
AND WE HAVE AMENDED KLBB TO REMOVE MENTION. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG AND IFR CLOUD DECKS WERE NOTED EAST OF KCDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND SLOWLY NEARING THE TAF SITE. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
ARE PESSIMISTIC IN THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT TO KCDS GIVE A
NORTHWEST WIND HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...CURRENT TRENDS MAY
SEE OTHERWISE. HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED A SCT BELOW 1000 FT AGL DECK
AND MVFR FOG UNTIL LATE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WELL SOUTH OF KLBB
GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST VALIDATES AN INSERTION OF A FEW IFR DECK.
WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
NORTH WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN. INCREASING VFR
DECKS WILL PASS OVERHEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS WHILE AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
-TSRA. ONCE AGAIN...KCDS IS MOST FAVORED FOR STORM CHANCES AND HAVE
INSERTED A TEMPO COMMENCING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS MAKING A RETURN TOMORROW
EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...PASSED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTN/EVENING...THUS RESULTING
IN A NRLY WIND SHIFT WHICH PREVAILED EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
STRATUS AND FOGGY CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS ERN TEXAS THIS
MORNING...AND COULD APPROACH THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS AOA SUNRISE AS
HINTED AT BY MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER IT MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO
AFFECT THE SAID AREA GIVEN PROGGED SFC WINDS BACKING TO THE NW WHICH
IS NOT A FAVORABLE WIND COMPONENT THAT ENCOURAGES THE INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
LOCALES ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS EXPERIENCE FOG AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS BEFORE IT SCOURS OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN A FOG MENTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW THAT IS TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN CALI PER 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FORECAST SOLUTIONS TRACK
THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN BAJA THIS AFN...TO NWRN OLD MEXICO
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE WASHED OUT AND SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S-SE
THUS AIDING IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS
NO WONDER THAT PROGGED PWATS INCREASE TO 0.5 INCH-1.20 INCHES BY
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST PWATS OCCURRING OFF THE CAPROCK. AS THE
SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR TONIGHT...UL SUPPORT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK...AND THE LLJ WILL CRANK UP TO 25-35
KTS ACROSS THE SAID AREA. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH
A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE AND AN INCREASING LLJ WILL RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COMMENCING LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS OFF THE CAPROCK. AS PWATS RISE ABOVE
1.00 INCH...WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR PERIODS OF
MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL. FURTHERMORE...CAN NOT OVERLOOK PROGGED
MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 1.0-1.5 KJ/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AOA 40 KTS AND VEERING WIND PROFILES NOTED FOR AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK...THUS SUGGESTING STORMS HAVING THE CAPABILITY OF
APPROACHING STRONG LEVELS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE APPROACHING UA LOW WILL CAUSE LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND
HENCE SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS...THOUGH STILL NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS /LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S/. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
SATURDAY PER THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. MAJORITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
KEEP AN OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY MORNING AND A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE
AFTN HOURS THERE. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
MODIFICATION TO THE PRECIP RELATED FIELDS.

HEIGHT GRADIENT PROGGED TO TIGHTEN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH AND AHEAD OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THAT WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
SUNDAY...PROGGED 700MB HEIGHTS AND WIND SPEEDS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FAVORING THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND A FRONT
MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT WIND SPEEDS BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS UNDERNEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS A RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST. MODELS SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE PLAINS AND COLD AIR SPILLING INTO MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THAT COLD AIR BACKING INTO THE
AREA BRIEFLY AROUND THURSDAY. THIS IS TRENDING AWAY FROM A MORE
PRONOUNCED COLD AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE AREA PER SOME PREVIOUS
RUNS...MOST NOTABLY THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  38  66  36  54 /   0  10  10   0  10
TULIA         63  41  66  38  57 /   0  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  43  66  39  59 /   0  20  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     64  43  66  40  61 /   0  30  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       65  45  66  41  62 /   0  30  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   67  45  66  43  65 /   0  30  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    65  45  66  42  63 /   0  30  30  10   0
CHILDRESS     60  46  64  43  64 /   0  60  60  10   0
SPUR          64  46  66  43  65 /   0  60  60  10   0
ASPERMONT     64  50  67  47  69 /  10  80  80  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
819
FXUS64 KLUB 211531
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
931 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MID MORNING UPDATE FOR MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO
PERSISTENT FOG IN PARTS OF ROLLING PLAINS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
KCDS HAS GONE DOWN HARD IN THE PAST HALF HOUR AS STRATUS LAYER HAS
MOVED IN. LATEST HRRR AND RAP SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATE GOOD
CHANCE THIS WILL BE PERSISTENT LATE INTO THE MORNING. STRATUS
LAYER SOUTH OF KLBB...MEANTIME...HAS NOT MADE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH
AND WE HAVE AMENDED KLBB TO REMOVE MENTION. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG AND IFR CLOUD DECKS WERE NOTED EAST OF KCDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND SLOWLY NEARING THE TAF SITE. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
ARE PESSIMISTIC IN THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT TO KCDS GIVE A
NORTHWEST WIND HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...CURRENT TRENDS MAY
SEE OTHERWISE. HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED A SCT BELOW 1000 FT AGL DECK
AND MVFR FOG UNTIL LATE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WELL SOUTH OF KLBB
GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST VALIDATES AN INSERTION OF A FEW IFR DECK.
WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
NORTH WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN. INCREASING VFR
DECKS WILL PASS OVERHEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS WHILE AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
-TSRA. ONCE AGAIN...KCDS IS MOST FAVORED FOR STORM CHANCES AND HAVE
INSERTED A TEMPO COMMENCING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS MAKING A RETURN TOMORROW
EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...PASSED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTN/EVENING...THUS RESULTING
IN A NRLY WIND SHIFT WHICH PREVAILED EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
STRATUS AND FOGGY CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS ERN TEXAS THIS
MORNING...AND COULD APPROACH THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS AOA SUNRISE AS
HINTED AT BY MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER IT MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO
AFFECT THE SAID AREA GIVEN PROGGED SFC WINDS BACKING TO THE NW WHICH
IS NOT A FAVORABLE WIND COMPONENT THAT ENCOURAGES THE INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
LOCALES ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS EXPERIENCE FOG AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS BEFORE IT SCOURS OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN A FOG MENTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW THAT IS TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN CALI PER 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FORECAST SOLUTIONS TRACK
THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN BAJA THIS AFN...TO NWRN OLD MEXICO
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE WASHED OUT AND SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S-SE
THUS AIDING IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS
NO WONDER THAT PROGGED PWATS INCREASE TO 0.5 INCH-1.20 INCHES BY
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST PWATS OCCURRING OFF THE CAPROCK. AS THE
SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR TONIGHT...UL SUPPORT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK...AND THE LLJ WILL CRANK UP TO 25-35
KTS ACROSS THE SAID AREA. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH
A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE AND AN INCREASING LLJ WILL RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COMMENCING LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS OFF THE CAPROCK. AS PWATS RISE ABOVE
1.00 INCH...WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR PERIODS OF
MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL. FURTHERMORE...CAN NOT OVERLOOK PROGGED
MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 1.0-1.5 KJ/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AOA 40 KTS AND VEERING WIND PROFILES NOTED FOR AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK...THUS SUGGESTING STORMS HAVING THE CAPABILITY OF
APPROACHING STRONG LEVELS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE APPROACHING UA LOW WILL CAUSE LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND
HENCE SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS...THOUGH STILL NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS /LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S/. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
SATURDAY PER THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. MAJORITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
KEEP AN OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY MORNING AND A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE
AFTN HOURS THERE. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
MODIFICATION TO THE PRECIP RELATED FIELDS.

HEIGHT GRADIENT PROGGED TO TIGHTEN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH AND AHEAD OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THAT WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
SUNDAY...PROGGED 700MB HEIGHTS AND WIND SPEEDS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FAVORING THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND A FRONT
MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT WIND SPEEDS BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS UNDERNEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS A RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST. MODELS SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE PLAINS AND COLD AIR SPILLING INTO MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THAT COLD AIR BACKING INTO THE
AREA BRIEFLY AROUND THURSDAY. THIS IS TRENDING AWAY FROM A MORE
PRONOUNCED COLD AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE AREA PER SOME PREVIOUS
RUNS...MOST NOTABLY THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  38  66  36  54 /   0  10  10   0  10
TULIA         63  41  66  38  57 /   0  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  43  66  39  59 /   0  20  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     64  43  66  40  61 /   0  30  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       65  45  66  41  62 /   0  30  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   67  45  66  43  65 /   0  30  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    65  45  66  42  63 /   0  30  30  10   0
CHILDRESS     60  46  64  43  64 /   0  60  60  10   0
SPUR          64  46  66  43  65 /   0  60  60  10   0
ASPERMONT     64  50  67  47  69 /  10  80  80  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99/05
382
FXUS64 KLUB 211125
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
525 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR FOG AND IFR CLOUD DECKS WERE NOTED EAST OF KCDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND SLOWLY NEARING THE TAF SITE. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
ARE PESSIMISTIC IN THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT TO KCDS GIVE A
NORTHWEST WIND HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...CURRENT TRENDS MAY
SEE OTHERWISE. HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED A SCT BELOW 1000 FT AGL DECK
AND MVFR FOG UNTIL LATE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WELL SOUTH OF KLBB
GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST VALIDATES AN INSERTION OF A FEW IFR DECK.
WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
NORTH WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN. INCREASING VFR
DECKS WILL PASS OVERHEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS WHILE AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
-TSRA. ONCE AGAIN...KCDS IS MOST FAVORED FOR STORM CHANCES AND HAVE
INSERTED A TEMPO COMMENCING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS MAKING A RETURN TOMORROW
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...PASSED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTN/EVENING...THUS RESULTING
IN A NRLY WIND SHIFT WHICH PREVAILED EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
STRATUS AND FOGGY CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS ERN TEXAS THIS
MORNING...AND COULD APPROACH THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS AOA SUNRISE AS
HINTED AT BY MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER IT MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO
AFFECT THE SAID AREA GIVEN PROGGED SFC WINDS BACKING TO THE NW WHICH
IS NOT A FAVORABLE WIND COMPONENT THAT ENCOURAGES THE INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
LOCALES ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS EXPERIENCE FOG AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS BEFORE IT SCOURS OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN A FOG MENTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW THAT IS TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN CALI PER 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FORECAST SOLUTIONS TRACK
THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN BAJA THIS AFN...TO NWRN OLD MEXICO
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE WASHED OUT AND SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S-SE
THUS AIDING IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS
NO WONDER THAT PROGGED PWATS INCREASE TO 0.5 INCH-1.20 INCHES BY
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST PWATS OCCURRING OFF THE CAPROCK. AS THE
SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR TONIGHT...UL SUPPORT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK...AND THE LLJ WILL CRANK UP TO 25-35
KTS ACROSS THE SAID AREA. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH
A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE AND AN INCREASING LLJ WILL RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COMMENCING LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS OFF THE CAPROCK. AS PWATS RISE ABOVE
1.00 INCH...WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR PERIODS OF
MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL. FURTHERMORE...CAN NOT OVERLOOK PROGGED
MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 1.0-1.5 KJ/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AOA 40 KTS AND VEERING WIND PROFILES NOTED FOR AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK...THUS SUGGESTING STORMS HAVING THE CAPABILITY OF
APPROACHING STRONG LEVELS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE APPROACHING UA LOW WILL CAUSE LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND
HENCE SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS...THOUGH STILL NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS /LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S/. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
SATURDAY PER THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. MAJORITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
KEEP AN OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY MORNING AND A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE
AFTN HOURS THERE. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
MODIFICATION TO THE PRECIP RELATED FIELDS.

HEIGHT GRADIENT PROGGED TO TIGHTEN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH AND AHEAD OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THAT WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
SUNDAY...PROGGED 700MB HEIGHTS AND WIND SPEEDS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING AND POSSBILY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FAVORING THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND A FRONT
MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT WIND SPEEDS BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS UNDERNEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS A RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST. MODELS SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE PLAINS AND COLD AIR SPILLING INTO MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THAT COLD AIR BACKING INTO THE
AREA BRIEFLY AROUND THURSDAY. THIS IS TRENDING AWAY FROM A MORE
PRONOUNCED COLD AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE AREA PER SOME PREVIOUS
RUNS...MOST NOTABLY THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  38  66  36  54 /   0  10  10   0  10
TULIA         63  41  66  38  57 /   0  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  43  66  39  59 /   0  20  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     64  43  66  40  61 /   0  30  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       65  45  66  41  62 /   0  30  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   67  45  66  43  65 /   0  30  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    65  45  66  42  63 /   0  30  30  10   0
CHILDRESS     60  46  64  43  64 /   0  60  60  10   0
SPUR          64  46  66  43  65 /   0  60  60  10   0
ASPERMONT     64  50  67  47  69 /  10  80  80  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
009
FXUS64 KLUB 211120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
520 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR FOG AND IFR CLOUD DECKS WERE NOTED EAST OF KCDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND SLOWLY NEARING THE TAF SITE. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
ARE PESSIMISTIC IN THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT TO KCDS GIVE A
NORTHWEST WIND HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...CURRENT TRENDS
MAY SEE OTHERWISE. HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED A BKN IFR DECK AND MVFR
FOG UNTIL LATE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WELL SOUTH OF KLBB GRADUALLY
MOVING NORTHEAST VALIDATES AN INSERTION OF A FEW IFR DECK. WILL OF
COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE NORTH
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN. INCREASING VFR DECKS
WILL PASS OVERHEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS WHILE AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF -TSRA. ONCE
AGAIN...KCDS IS MOST FAVORED FOR STORM CHANCES AND HAVE INSERTED A
TEMPO COMMENCING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. COMPUTER
MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS MAKING A RETURN TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...PASSED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTN/EVENING...THUS RESULTING
IN A NRLY WIND SHIFT WHICH PREVAILED EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
STRATUS AND FOGGY CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS ERN TEXAS THIS
MORNING...AND COULD APPROACH THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS AOA SUNRISE AS
HINTED AT BY MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER IT MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO
AFFECT THE SAID AREA GIVEN PROGGED SFC WINDS BACKING TO THE NW WHICH
IS NOT A FAVORABLE WIND COMPONENT THAT ENCOURAGES THE INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
LOCALES ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS EXPERIENCE FOG AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS BEFORE IT SCOURS OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN A FOG MENTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW THAT IS TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN CALI PER 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FORECAST SOLUTIONS TRACK
THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN BAJA THIS AFN...TO NWRN OLD MEXICO
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE WASHED OUT AND SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S-SE
THUS AIDING IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS
NO WONDER THAT PROGGED PWATS INCREASE TO 0.5 INCH-1.20 INCHES BY
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST PWATS OCCURRING OFF THE CAPROCK. AS THE
SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR TONIGHT...UL SUPPORT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK...AND THE LLJ WILL CRANK UP TO 25-35
KTS ACROSS THE SAID AREA. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH
A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE AND AN INCREASING LLJ WILL RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COMMENCING LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS OFF THE CAPROCK. AS PWATS RISE ABOVE
1.00 INCH...WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR PERIODS OF
MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL. FURTHERMORE...CAN NOT OVERLOOK PROGGED
MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 1.0-1.5 KJ/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AOA 40 KTS AND VEERING WIND PROFILES NOTED FOR AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK...THUS SUGGESTING STORMS HAVING THE CAPABILITY OF
APPROACHING STRONG LEVELS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE APPROACHING UA LOW WILL CAUSE LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND
HENCE SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS...THOUGH STILL NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS /LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S/. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
SATURDAY PER THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. MAJORITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
KEEP AN OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY MORNING AND A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE
AFTN HOURS THERE. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
MODIFICATION TO THE PRECIP RELATED FIELDS.

HEIGHT GRADIENT PROGGED TO TIGHTEN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH AND AHEAD OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THAT WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
SUNDAY...PROGGED 700MB HEIGHTS AND WIND SPEEDS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING AND POSSBILY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FAVORING THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND A FRONT
MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT WIND SPEEDS BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS UNDERNEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS A RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST. MODELS SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE PLAINS AND COLD AIR SPILLING INTO MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THAT COLD AIR BACKING INTO THE
AREA BRIEFLY AROUND THURSDAY. THIS IS TRENDING AWAY FROM A MORE
PRONOUNCED COLD AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE AREA PER SOME PREVIOUS
RUNS...MOST NOTABLY THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  38  66  36  54 /   0  10  10   0  10
TULIA         63  41  66  38  57 /   0  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  43  66  39  59 /   0  20  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     64  43  66  40  61 /   0  30  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       65  45  66  41  62 /   0  30  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   67  45  66  43  65 /   0  30  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    65  45  66  42  63 /   0  30  30  10   0
CHILDRESS     60  46  64  43  64 /   0  60  60  10   0
SPUR          64  46  66  43  65 /   0  60  60  10   0
ASPERMONT     64  50  67  47  69 /  10  80  80  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
236
FXUS64 KLUB 210845
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
245 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...PASSED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTN/EVENING...THUS RESULTING
IN A NRLY WIND SHIFT WHICH PREVAILED EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
STRATUS AND FOGGY CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS ERN TEXAS THIS
MORNING...AND COULD APPROACH THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS AOA SUNRISE AS
HINTED AT BY MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER IT MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO
AFFECT THE SAID AREA GIVEN PROGGED SFC WINDS BACKING TO THE NW WHICH
IS NOT A FAVORABLE WIND COMPONENT THAT ENCOURAGES THE INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
LOCALES ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS EXPERIENCE FOG AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS BEFORE IT SCOURS OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN A FOG MENTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW THAT IS TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN CALI PER 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FORECAST SOLUTIONS TRACK
THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN BAJA THIS AFN...TO NWRN OLD MEXICO
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE WASHED OUT AND SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S-SE
THUS AIDING IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS
NO WONDER THAT PROGGED PWATS INCREASE TO 0.5 INCH-1.20 INCHES BY
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST PWATS OCCURRING OFF THE CAPROCK. AS THE
SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR TONIGHT...UL SUPPORT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK...AND THE LLJ WILL CRANK UP TO 25-35
KTS ACROSS THE SAID AREA. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH
A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE AND AN INCREASING LLJ WILL RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COMMENCING LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS OFF THE CAPROCK. AS PWATS RISE ABOVE
1.00 INCH...WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR PERIODS OF
MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL. FURTHERMORE...CAN NOT OVERLOOK PROGGED
MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 1.0-1.5 KJ/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AOA 40 KTS AND VEERING WIND PROFILES NOTED FOR AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK...THUS SUGGESTING STORMS HAVING THE CAPABILITY OF
APPROACHING STRONG LEVELS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE APPROACHING UA LOW WILL CAUSE LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND
HENCE SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS...THOUGH STILL NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS /LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S/. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
SATURDAY PER THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. MAJORITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
KEEP AN OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY MORNING AND A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE
AFTN HOURS THERE. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
MODIFICATION TO THE PRECIP RELATED FIELDS.

HEIGHT GRADIENT PROGGED TO TIGHTEN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH AND AHEAD OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THAT WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
SUNDAY...PROGGED 700MB HEIGHTS AND WIND SPEEDS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING AND POSSBILY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FAVORING THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND A FRONT
MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT WIND SPEEDS BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS UNDERNEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS A RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST. MODELS SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE PLAINS AND COLD AIR SPILLING INTO MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THAT COLD AIR BACKING INTO THE
AREA BRIEFLY AROUND THURSDAY. THIS IS TRENDING AWAY FROM A MORE
PRONOUNCED COLD AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE AREA PER SOME PREVIOUS
RUNS...MOST NOTABLY THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  38  66  36  54 /   0  10  10   0  10
TULIA         63  41  66  38  57 /   0  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  43  66  39  59 /   0  20  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     64  43  66  40  61 /   0  30  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       65  45  66  41  62 /   0  30  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   67  45  66  43  65 /   0  30  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    65  45  66  42  63 /   0  30  30  10   0
CHILDRESS     60  46  64  43  64 /   0  60  60  10   0
SPUR          64  46  66  43  65 /   0  60  60  10   0
ASPERMONT     64  50  67  47  69 /  10  80  80  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07
165
FXUS64 KLUB 210541
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN EAST OF BOTH KLBB AND KCDS...BUT EXPECT
SOME PATCHY FOG AND ASSOCIATED LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP NEAR KCDS BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEARER LONGER TONIGHT AS
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SAVING GRACE TO MUCH
FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE WINDS BACKING NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AS
OPPOSED TO REMAINING EASTERLY WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG
FORMATION. NONETHELESS...A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
LOOKS VERY POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AT KCDS WITH CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO VFR CRITERIA BY LATE MORNING AS MIXING COMMENCES.
KLBB SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF ANY MENTIONABLE FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR NOW. COULD SEE SOME
DEGRADATION FOR BOTH SITES NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD COME
FRIDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES AFTER 00Z SATURDAY
AS A RESPECTABLE LOW CUTS OFF ACROSS SRN AZ/NRN SONORA. THIS WILL
BE COVERED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR CWFA THIS EVENING BEFORE WASHING OUT
OVERNIGHT. THUS...WIND DIRECTION...WHILE QUITE LIGHT BY WEST TEXAS
STANDARDS...WILL BE VARIABLE AND HARD TO NAIL DOWN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION THOUGH THE TENDENCY WILL BE FOR WINDS TO REMAIN NORTHERLY
IN THE NE AND SRLY IN THE SW. MUCH OF THE EVENING SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL INVADE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AT LEAST FOR PART OF THE
NIGHT IN THE WEST. OFF ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD HOLD OFF SEVERAL MORE HOURS. AS A
RESULT...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT
BEFORE CLEARING OUT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE CONTINUING THEIR TREND OF A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHWARD
TROUGH FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE POSITIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH WILL
PERSIST FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME WHICH WILL NOT BODE WELL FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THIS
WILL PLACE THE PRECIPITATION EVENT MORE TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING
THAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LIFT WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR OVER
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ON THE CAPROCK WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BUT STILL A GOOD INCREASE IN WINDS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MUCH MORE VEERED
ON THE CAPROCK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MODELS SHOW VALUES OVER ONE INCH OFF THE
CAPROCK WITH VALUES NEARING THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AROUND KLBB.
THIS MAY LEND TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT THAN A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. GOOD SHEAR COMBINING WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG MAY PROMOTE SOME STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT
BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.

A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING THIS TROUGHS
PASSAGE COMPLETE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. LARGER INCONSISTENCIES
ENTER THE FORECAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE ARCTIC AIR
DUMP AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN MUCH BETTER RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE GFS IN SHOWING THIS COLD AIR DUMP ON
THURSDAY ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE STILL DEPICTING A HIGH
SPREAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  25  62  36  64 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         60  28  61  39  65 /   0   0   0  20  20
PLAINVIEW     62  29  61  41  65 /   0   0   0  20  20
LEVELLAND     65  31  65  41  64 /   0   0   0  30  20
LUBBOCK       65  32  64  43  65 /   0   0   0  40  20
DENVER CITY   67  34  67  43  64 /   0   0   0  40  10
BROWNFIELD    66  33  66  43  65 /   0   0   0  40  20
CHILDRESS     62  36  61  44  61 /   0   0  10  60  60
SPUR          66  33  66  45  64 /   0   0   0  60  50
ASPERMONT     68  39  67  48  64 /   0   0   0  80  80

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.