Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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326
FXUS64 KLUB 112051
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
351 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT THAT BACK-DOORED INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTH
PLAINS YESTERDAY EVENING...HAS PUSHED TO ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE VEERING OF SFC WINDS TO THE E-NE HAS
COMMENCED...COURTESY OF WEAK SFC LEE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST AND THE
GRADUAL EXITING OF THE SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST. A SLOW EWRD
PROPAGATING FLATTENED UA RIDGE TO OUR WEST HAS AIDED IN FILTERING IN
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM SW TO NE. THOUGH...DESPITE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS...TEMPS STILL MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S.
HOWEVER...THIS IS COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS THANKS TO THE ADVECTION OF
A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT/SFC
RIDGE. TONIGHT...A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN THE INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND NOTHING MORE THAN THAT. CONCURRENTLY...SFC WINDS WILL
VEER FURTHER WITH A S-SE COMPONENT TONIGHT TO FINALLY A S-SW
COMPONENT BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING TOMORROW AS A COUPLE OF WX FEATURES MAY
TAKE SHAPE. THE FIRST IS THE DEEPENING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
TROUGH THROUGHOUT THE AFTN...WHILST SHIFTING EWRD TO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED UA LOW /CURRENTLY
OFF THE CALI COAST/ THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ON SHORE TOMORROW
MORNING AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
THE RESULT IS BREEZY SW/DOWNSLOPE WINDS BY THE AFTN /AOA 20-25
MPH/...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORM WARMTH /80S AND
90S/ AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED DUST. THUS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS/UPPER SINGLE DIGITS MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK BY
PEAK HEATING. BREEZY...WARM  AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE
FIRE DANGER...AND THEREFORE  UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE APPEARS VALID. FOR FURTHER INFO PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

THE FILTERING OF DRIER AIR ON THE CAPROCK TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...WHILE MOISTER AIR ENSUES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ROLLING PLAINS...WILL RESULT IN THE SECOND WX
FEATURE OF INTEREST...THE DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES /INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE/ WITH LITTLE TO NO
CIN...SFC-BASED CAPE OF 600-1000 J/KG...DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION AND
ADEQUATE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE HINTED AT THE SERN TX PANHANDLE BEING THE AREA OF
INTEREST COINCIDING WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CIN. IF THE CAP CAN
INDEED BE BROKEN...ADEQUATE SPEED AND WIND SHEAR MAY RESULT IN HAIL
AND GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL...BUT THIS IS VERY CONDITIONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION PROSPECTS ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS
SYNOPTIC LIFT BEGINS OVER-SPREADING THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY EVENING. WE WILL RETAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AREA...THOUGH NOT AS CONVINCED BY THE SHOWER
POSSIBILITIES FURTHER WEST AS DEPICTED BY GFS ON THE CAPROCK WHERE
CONSIDERABLE DRYNESS WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME AND INSTABILITY A
BIT IN QUESTION. GFS FASTER FROM HERE ON OUT WITH THIS TROUGH
SYSTEM AND THUS QUICKEST TO DROP THE COLD FRONT OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE CHOSE A BLEND WITH SLOWER SOLUTIONS
KEEPING BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY AND WARM AGAIN SUNDAY ALONG
WITH DEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO GENERATE AT LEAST BREEZY OR LOW END
WINDY CONDITIONS. NEXT EVENT WILL BE THAT SHARP COLD FRONT
SWEEPING OUT OF THE PANHANDLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY EVENING...ADDED PATCHY BLOWING DUST WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SPEEDS. COLDER AIR SETTLING SOUTHWARD WITH SECONDARY UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING ENOUGH FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
FAVORING NORTHWEST ZONES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY
MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTENING IN LOWER
LEVELS ALTHOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE WIDE APART WITH THE CRITICAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE...SO CANNOT ARGUE ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION THOUGH WE DID EXTEND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH. THEN...COLD AIR WILL ENGULF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A FREEZE LOOKING LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY MANY AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK. WE WILL NEED TO CONSIDER WHETHER A FREEZE WATCH WILL BE
NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS IN LATER FORECASTS. FLATTER PATTERN BEYOND
WILL LEAD TO WARMING. PERHAPS A WEAK FRONT SLIPPING SOUTHWARD INTO
MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY ALTHOUGH MAY NOT LOWER TEMPERATURES
VERY MUCH. WITHHOLDING ON PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS FOR NEXT WEEKEND
UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ARISES. LONG TERM FORECASTER: RMCQUEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY: A NEARBY SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN THROUGHOUT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON..IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACH UPPER LEVEL FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN 20-FOOT SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25
MPH. THIS DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL PROMOTE TEMPS TO WARM SOME
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IN TURN...WILL CAUSE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUE TO DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS/UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
PARTICULARLY ON THE CAPROCK AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
BREEZY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH DRY FUELS WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL
THEREFORE BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

SUNDAY: DRY AND WARM AIRMASS LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAIN ACROSS AT
LEAST SOUTHWESTERN HALF OR TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH
THE CRISP CANADIAN COLD FRONT HANGING UP UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. A
PACIFIC FRONT PASSING EARLIER IN THE DAY MAY LIMIT RED FLAG
POSSIBILITIES SOMEWHAT...WHILE WIND SPEEDS ALSO MAY BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. STILL...AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LOOKS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY FOR SUNDAY. SUNDAY FORECASTER: RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  87  48  72  31 /   0  10  10  10  20
TULIA         50  89  52  75  32 /   0   0  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     52  89  53  76  32 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     52  90  56  79  34 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       53  91  58  80  35 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   53  88  56  80  37 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    53  90  58  82  37 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     55  94  62  82  36 /   0  10  10  20  20
SPUR          55  91  60  83  38 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     57  90  64  87  40 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

29/05

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