Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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010
FXUS64 KLUB 302319
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS PERHAPS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM AT CHILDRESS THIS EVENING. ALSO WE MAY SEE A
BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AT CHILDRESS AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO
HAZE.

HIEATT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH LOW TO MID 40 DEWPOINTS ON THE WEST
SIDE AND LOW 60S ON THE EAST SIDE.  MIXING ZONE WAS FAIRLY BROAD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BUT HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS CU FIELD STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY AT THE SURFACE.  BIGGEST PROBLEM IS THE DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM HAS BEEN THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHEST WEST WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT.  THIS IS DUE TO
AN AXIS OF APPROXIMATELY 2000 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE ANYWHERE FROM 700-1400 J/KG ACROSS
THE SAME REGION.  NEXT ISSUE IS CAP STRENGTH WHICH ALSO VARIES FROM
MODEL TO MODEL. FOR THE MOST PART...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
AREA SHOW A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL CAP TO OVERCOME WITH A LACK OF
FORCING ALOFT TO HELP ERODE THE CAP.  WITH SURFACE FLOW PRETTY MUCH
PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE...ALSO HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE
FORCING TO HELP STORMS INITIATE.  BOTH THE HIGHER-RES TTU-WRF AND
HRRR HOLD OFF ON INITIATION UNTIL AROUND 02Z AND HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS TIME LINE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.  WITH THIS
IN MIND...KEPT POPS FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED.  MAIN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WILL BE FOR HAIL APPROACHING ONE INCH AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF PRETTY FAST AS YOU HEAD WEST WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE ENDING ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR.  LATE TIMING OF INITIATION
WILL ALSO HINDER COVERAGE DUE TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE-BASED HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

AFTER ANOTHER MORNING FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION...EXPECT TO SEE THE DRYLINE SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROF ALSO SHIFTS EAST.  MODELS
MIX THE ATMOSPHERE OUT A BIT MORE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES.
OPTED TO PULL POPS OUT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS
AS A RESULT.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE APPROACH OF AN UA SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE SRN ROCKIES AND NEARING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW
EVENING/NIGHT...WILL CAUSE ITS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/RETREATING
DRYLINE TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS POSSIBLY
NEARING STRONG LEVELS GIVEN STEEPENED LAPSE RATES AND PROGGED MUCAPE
OF AOA 1700 J/KG. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UA
SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL COMMENCE TO
IMPINGE ON THE REGION LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND PERHAPS RENEW PRECIP CHANCES
MAINLY ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE ADEQUATE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. HOWEVER...MOST SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN BEST
RAINFALL CHANCES JUST EAST OF THE CWA. PRESSURE RISES OF 4-8 MB PER
6 HOURS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NRLY WIND SPEEDS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY /AOA 20 MPH/...WHERE BY THE
EVENING THE SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE NEAR THE FA AND POSE A RELAXING
GRADIENT AND THUS LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
ADVECT IN A COOLER AIRMASS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS ON.

THEREAFTER...UA RIDGING AMPLIFICATION WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS...LEADING TO DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HINTS OF A WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY...THOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT WX /OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/ TO COME TO PASS. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
WARM FROM THE 70S ON FRIDAY TO THE 80S BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW COOL MORNING/S ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY /LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/ DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
NEARBY SFC RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  81  52  71  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         56  84  55  73  46 /  20   0  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     57  84  55  73  47 /  20   0  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     58  84  56  75  48 /  10   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       59  85  57  75  48 /  20   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   60  85  58  77  49 /  10   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    60  86  58  77  50 /  10   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     62  93  59  79  50 /  30  10  10  10   0
SPUR          64  90  63  81  51 /  30  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     67  93  67  85  53 /  20  10  20  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26

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