Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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134
FXUS64 KLUB 120454
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1154 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING IN FRIDAY MORNING.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH PREVAILING IFR
CEILINGS AT KLBB FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. KCDS MAY STILL SEE IFR CEILINGS...SO INSERTED A TEMPO
GROUP FROM 13-17Z. WINDS WILL BACK NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO NEAR
15 KNOTS FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS. SPEEDS
SHOULD DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STILL HAVE TO
MONITOR CEILINGS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BETTER BREAK OUT THE PARKA FOR THAT FOOTBALL GAME TOMORROW NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION. CURRENTLY THE COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED OVER
NORTHEASTERN CO WHERE COLD AIR IS DAMMED AGAINST THE ROCKIES.
CURRENT SURFACE OBS SHOW TEMPS AS LOW AS 33 DEGREES AT THE BASE OF
THE ROCKIES IN WYOMING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ROCKIES. THOUGH WE WILL NOT BE SEEING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S THEY WILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WV SHOWS A TROF
POSITIONED OVER ID/MT MOVING SOUTHEAST. THIS TROF WILL BE WHAT
PUSHES THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH IN MANY
AREAS...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTH PLAINS...AS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
DURING MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY HAVE KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AS OF
20Z LUBBOCK HAS YET TO REACH ABOVE 70 DEGREES. LOWS IN THE MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOW 60S. TEMPS ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM UP THROUGH PART OF THE DAY TOMORROW INTO THE
UPPER 60S AS THESE AREAS WILL SEE THE FROPA LAST. THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FA WILL SEEM TEMPS LOWER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TOMORROW AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE FROPA
WILL BE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF SPEED IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AS THE
MUCH DENSER COOL AIR WILL BE DAMMED AGAINST THE ROCKIES.

ALONG WITH COOLER AIR...RAIN WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL DEFINITELY NOT BE AN ISSUE. WV SHOWS TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEING TAPPED FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHICH WILL GIVE US PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES. THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIP WILL COME LATER THIS EVENING ALONG OUR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES AS A TROF ROTATES AROUND A RIDGE JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL POSITION ITSELF TO OUR NORTH AND WILL
PLACE US IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF DIVERGENCE AND THIS WILL HELP
SUSTAIN PRECIP ACTIVITY. PRECIP CHANCES DRASTICALLY INCREASE BY
TOMORROW MORNING AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING GIVES LIFT TO AN ALREADY
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SWIFTLY THROUGH THE FA
BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON LEAVING BEHIND TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE FA THANKS TO ISENTROPIC LIFTING. OUR SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES WILL SEE HEAVIER RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WILL
STILL BE NEAR THE AREA. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD SEPTEMBER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE...OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 50S...EVEN UPPER 40S IN
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT AND GIVE WAY TO A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 70 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA & WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. HIGHS
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ITS ASSOCIATED
LOW WILL TAP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM IN
THE SE PACIFIC. COVERAGE ACROSS WEST TEXAS IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING CHANCES OF MORE RAINFALL
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  56  60  47  72 /  30  70  80  20  10
TULIA         78  56  60  48  71 /  40  60  80  20  10
PLAINVIEW     79  57  62  48  70 /  40  70  80  20  10
LEVELLAND     79  60  64  50  71 /  50  90  90  20  20
LUBBOCK       80  59  64  50  70 /  40  80  90  20  10
DENVER CITY   80  62  67  51  70 /  30  90  90  30  20
BROWNFIELD    80  61  66  51  71 /  50  90  90  30  20
CHILDRESS     81  59  64  52  74 /  20  40  70  20  10
SPUR          81  62  66  53  74 /  30  60  80  20  10
ASPERMONT     81  64  70  55  75 /  20  60  70  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31

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