Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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574
FXUS64 KLUB 220554
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1154 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.UPDATE...
HEAVIER SNOW RATES APPEAR TO BE MOVING THROUGH WITH MOSTLY LIGHTER
RATES TO FOLLOW. AFTER A LET UP EARLY THIS MORNING...WE STILL
EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BUT AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY LIGHT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAVORED. WE
HAVE TRIMMED BACK OFF ON THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...EXCEPT OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY IFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A
FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH LIKELY WILL LOWER TO LIFR
AT TIMES...BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME AT THIS POINT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015/

AVIATION...
A POTENT WINTER STORM WILL BE MOVING IN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS TAF PACKAGE. RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS ALL SITES THIS EVENING
ALONG WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS. BEST GUESSES ON TRANSITION
TO SNOW IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...ABOUT 02Z-04Z
AT KPVW...04Z-06Z AT KLBB...AND 06Z-08Z AT KCDS. THIS WAS OUR
PRIMARY EMPHASIS THIS FORECAST WHILE WE RETAINED PREVIOUS LOWERING
OF CEILING HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITIES. WE STILL EXPECT TO CHANGE TO
HEAVIER SNOW RATES AT SOME POINT EITHER LATER TONIGHT OR ON
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONSWHICH
WE WILL ATTEMPT TO ADDRESS FURTHER FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL
SOLUTIONS KEEP CONDITIONS AT OR BELOW IFR LEVELS FOR THE LATER
PERIODS. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX/

.SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...

SHORT TERM...
MESHING OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MIGRATING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON. A 100+ KNOT
JET STREAK EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF THE LATTER DISTURBANCE INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY HAS PRODUCED A SHIELD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE
WESTERN EXTENT REACHING INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. FARTHER WEST ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...RADAR RETURNS
CONTINUE TO FILL IN AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN
DISTURBANCE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN IN THE LIQUID PHASE
UNTIL SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S
OWING TO A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY DAY SUNSHINE.

COOLING WILL ENSUE THIS EVENING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTERS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH CONTINUED COLUMN MOISTENING...
TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM RAIN TO SNOW. SHOULD SEE
THIS TAKE PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE
AND ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
CAPROCK ESCARPMENT SEEING PREDOMINANTLY SNOW COME MIDNIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS
SHOULD SEE MAINLY LIQUID INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS MAINTAINING A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AT DAYBREAK. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER AREAS EAST OF
ASPERMONT TO ABOUT GUTHRIE WILL COOL QUITE ENOUGH TO SEE MUCH
SNOW...BUT COMBINATION OF CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WET
BULB COOLING SHOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG
LIFT AND SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER TO ALLOW
FROZEN HYDROMETEORS TO REACH THE GROUND.

A RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD CONTINUE EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
THURSDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING ATTEMPTS TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S...WHILE ALL SNOW FALLS TO THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
OVERHEAD THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WRAP-AROUND SNOW
DEPARTS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY RUSH HOUR.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...3 TO 7 INCHES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. A FEW LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY IN PARMER COUNTY...MAY VERY WELL SEE LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THESE TOTALS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRANSITION TIME TO SNOW THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AS WELL AS
INTENSITY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IN REGARDS TO DEFORMATION
BANDING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WILL UPGRADE WINTER STORM WATCH
TO A WARNING FOR ALL LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AND
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES TO THE
EAST...VALID FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER BENIGN.
UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS TO BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED BUT RATHER
STAGNANT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE ERN CONUS
WITH A BLOCKING TYPE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST. A LOW IS
PROGGED TO CUT OFF SOUTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIF. THAT UPPER FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL FROM
THE WEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS ON HOW THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS AND EJECTS...BUT EVEN THE
MORE ERN SOLUTIONS KEEP PRECIP TO OUR WEST. ANY SNOW FIELD/WET
GROUND MAY AFFECT TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO HAVE CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE THOSE AREAS IN PARTICULAR.
MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  26   8  34 / 100  90  30   0
TULIA         28  28  12  36 / 100  90  30   0
PLAINVIEW     27  28  15  35 / 100 100  40  10
LEVELLAND     29  29  15  37 /  90 100  60  10
LUBBOCK       29  29  17  38 / 100 100  60  10
DENVER CITY   28  29  17  37 /  90 100  60  10
BROWNFIELD    28  29  18  39 /  90 100  60  10
CHILDRESS     31  34  22  44 / 100  90  20  10
SPUR          30  30  21  42 / 100 100  50  10
ASPERMONT     32  37  26  46 / 100 100  50  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
TXZ024>026-028>044.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
TXZ021>023-027.

&&

$$

05/99/05

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