Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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513
FXUS64 KLUB 180549 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1149 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND
SPEEDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE MORNING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY AT TIMES. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET
WITH A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF
CYCLE.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND TRANSITION
TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE. WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN INCREASE INTO
THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE BY TOMORROW MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...CONTINUED TO PROGRESS EWRD WHILST
AT THE THE SFC...A SFC TROUGH WAS DRAPED FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO
THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS WHICH MADE WAY FOR A DRY BUT RATHER BREEZY
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH TO THE PERMIAN BASIN
AND WAS NEARING THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER
OF 2-3 MB PER 3 HRS HAVE RESULTED IN NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 20-31
MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WERE
NOTED ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS...GIVEN A 700 MB JET MAX OF
30-40 KTS EXISTED THERE. THIS 700 MB JET HAS SLOWLY COMMENCED TO
SHIFT EWRD LATE THIS AFTN...WHICH IS EVIDENT BY WIND SPEEDS BEING
LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE EARLIER TODAY /BUT STILL BREEZY/. WITH WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTN...WILL THEREFORE GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY
EARLY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. IT IS OBVIOUS THAT STRONG CAA IS
NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...AS TEMPS WERE STILL CAPABLE OF
WARMING INTO THE 60S. IT IS BECAUSE OF THESE ABOVE NORM TEMPS
COUPLING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HUMIDITIES NEARING 15
PERCENT...HAVE RESULTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA TO TICK
OFF A FEW RED FLAG MINUTES. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SITE TO APPROACH THE
THREE-HOURLY TIME CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING...AS WIND SPEEDS
ARE POISED TO CONTINUE TO DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.

BY SUNSET...A RATHER NOTABLE DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR AS A
SFC RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A NIGHT OF
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WHICH SUGGEST PLUMMETING TEMPS.
HOWEVER...SFC WINDS PROGGED TO BACK TO THE W-SW OVERNIGHT COULD
MITIGATE AN OVERLY COLD NIGHT HENCE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. TOMORROW...A NEARBY SFC LOW WILL
PROMOTE A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
RETURN OF BREEZY SWRLY SFC WINDS BY THE AFTN. WILL THEREFORE EXPECT
TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORM /60S/ WHICH IN TURN...CAUSES RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. SW WIND SPEEDS
OF 15-25 MPH COUPLED WITH ABOVE NORM TEMPS RAISE CONCERNS FOR FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL. THOUGH...IF HUMIDITIES DO INDEED REMAIN ABOVE 15
PERCENT IN ADDITION TO FUELS ENCOMPASSING ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE...MAY RESULT IN LOWERED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

LONG TERM...
FOCUS REMAINS ON PRECIP POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK EXITS THE PLAINS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS SURROUNDING
THIS TROUGH...IN PARTICULAR WITH HOW THE ENERGY EVOLVES WITHIN
IT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE TROUGH FURTHER WEST TOWARD ARIZONA AND SRN CALIFORNIA
WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS BRINGS THAT ENERGY FURTHER TO THE EAST.
EITHER WAY SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE SHEARED BY THE TIME IT WOULD HAVE AN
INFLUENCE ON WEST TEXAS...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL MAINTAIN
A GOOD DEAL OF CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST AND KEEP 30 PCT
POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO
MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP FROM FAR WEST
TEXAS TO THE BIG COUNTRY...THE NRN END OF WHICH MAY EXTEND INTO
THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. BY THURSDAY THE LATTER MECHANISM
SHOULD TAKE OVER AND WILL FCST CHC POPS SOUTH WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
NORTH. STILL APPEARS MID LEVELS WILL COOL IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WITH MID-LEVEL WARM NOSE BEING ERODED MEANING RAIN OR SNOW
PREFERRED WITH SFC AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS THE DECIDER.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS RATHER BENIGN. ONLY ITEM OF NOTE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS PROG 850 MB
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS AGAIN FAVORING ERN ZONES TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND
THE FRONT. WILL NUDGE WIND SPEEDS UP A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        30  63  31  68  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         29  65  32  67  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     30  65  32  69  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  65  33  69  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       30  65  33  69  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   31  65  34  70  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    30  65  34  70  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     33  69  37  69  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          32  65  36  71  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     33  67  38  70  38 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/14

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