Area Forecast Discussion
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218
FXUS64 KLUB 232251
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
551 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH TO SW WINDS OVERNIGHT
MAINLY AOB 12 KTS /SLIGHTLY STRONGER THRU THE EVENING KCDS/ TO
VEER TO NW TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH
A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SCOOT TO OUR NORTH DRIVING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...THE PUSH IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK SUCH THAT RETURN FLOW SHOULD BECOME
ESTABLISHED BY LATE IN THE DAY.  AS SUCH...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND QUIET WITH NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT OF CLOUDS
OTHER SOME STREAMING CIRRUS.

LOOKING TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS THE GREATEST CONCERN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE VERY DRY FUELS WILL COMBINE
WITH BREEZY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND RH VALUES NEAR 10
PCT.

LONG TERM...
TEMPS WILL BE WARM ON WED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE THEY
SHOULD BE SAFE FROM SETTING NEW RECORDS. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
IN FRONTAL TIMING BETWEEN MODELS. THE NAM AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR
FROPA TIMING...AFTER 00Z THURS...WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE FROPA
THROUGH THE FA BY 00Z THURS. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL BE A BLEND OF
THE THREE TIMES HAVING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE FA BY 04Z. WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 15-20KTS WHICH IN ADDITION TO WARM AND
DRY AIR WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
A BIT MORE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. ALSO IN QUESTION WITH THE FRONT IS THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...HAVE
BEEN TRENDING DRIER WITH EACH RUN. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL
SUPPLYING QPF BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOKING AT NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...CONDITIONS GO FROM DRY /DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20C/ TO
MOIST /DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF LESS THAN 5C/ IN AN HOUR. WHILE THIS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH AN EXTREME TEMP CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT THE
NAM DOES NOT SHOW THIS. IT HAS LITTLE IN TEMP CHANGE BUT INSTEAD
RAISES THE DEWPOINT RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT. SUCH A RISE IN THE
DEWPOINT IS NOT AS CONVINCING AS IF DEEP GULF MOISTURE WAS TO BE
PUMPED INTO THE REGION. FOR THIS THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WED WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THURS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED CAA AT
THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. TEMPS
THURS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE TEMPS
MAY DIP SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY AND SHOULD STICK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DEAMPLIFY WHILE PUSHING
EASTWARD AND WILL REST OVER THE REGION BY MID WEEKEND HELPING TO
RAISE TEMPS INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  78  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         46  80  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  82  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     47  83  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       49  85  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  81  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  83  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     55  87  51  86 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          54  85  52  85 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     60  89  53  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07

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