Area Forecast Discussion
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486
FXUS64 KLUB 302324
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
624 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FRIDAY AS THEY GRADUALLY VEER TO
EASTERLY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AS OF 2 PM...THE COLD FRONT HAS PRETTY MUCH CLEARED THE CWA ASIDE
FROM THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING IN THE
55-60F RANGE AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SWD
MOVING FRONT HOWEVER SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON SO CHANCES LOOK VERY SLIM OF ANY T-STORM DEVELOPMENT
EVEN IN STONEWALL COUNTY....AND WE HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK A BIT
BELOW MENTION. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WHILE MODEST MOISTURE HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTH. SLACKENING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
PRETTY QUICKLY. NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
NOTHING SUGGESTS A HARD FREEZE IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S SHOULD BE THE RULE.

LIGHT...UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMO...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR HIGHS
UNDER JUST A FEW STREAMING HIGH CLOUDS.

LONG TERM...
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE
TRENDED FEWER ON THE 12Z RUNS WHICH NOW DEPICT A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION FROM THE PREVIOUSLY FAST GFS AND SLOW ECM. THE LATEST ECM
STILL CLOSES OFF MORE ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS NRN
MEXICO BY TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOOT POINT FOR
OUR AREA AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD
DURING THIS TIME COMPLETE WITH DEEPENING MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
MUCH LOWER PWATS. POPS WERE REFINED A BIT TO BETTER ILLUSTRATE A
CONCENTRATED PERIOD OF PRECIP LATE MON AND MON NIGHT AS THE CORE
OF HEIGHT FALLS REACHES THE AREA AND PROVIDES THE DEEPEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT. A STRONG UL JET STREAK OF 130 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME
APPEARS CLASSIC FOR MAINTAINING A ROUND OF TRAINING PRECIP
EMBEDDED IN DEEP SWLY FLOW. EVEN THOUGH THIS TROUGH IS STILL
LURKING OFF THE PACIFIC COASTLINE...OPER MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
CONSISTENCY DEPICTING AN ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WARRANT
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LIKELY POPS WERE
CONSIDERED...BUT SINCE THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 5-6 DAYS
OUT THERE IS A VALID CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL DPROG/DT CONCERNS
EMERGING. SO WE/LL LEAVE THE HIGHER POPS ON THE ROTISSERIE FOR NOW
UNTIL THEY SHOW BETTER CARAMELIZATION.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. FRIDAY NIGHT/S
COOL SURFACE RIDGE ACTUALLY LOOKS TO DEPART THE REGION A TOUCH
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS INDICATED WHICH COULD COMPLETELY
STAVE OFF A LIGHT FREEZE FOR OUR NERN ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP NEAR
FREEZING LOWS INTACT FOR THE CHILDRESS-SILVERTON AREA AS MOS IS
STILL COMING IN QUITE CHILLY THERE. ALSO...SUFFICIENT TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUN NIGHT SHOULD GARNER SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER FORCING
EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY/MON NIGHT. CHILLY COLD FROPA BY EARLY TUE
SHOULD STUNT MAX TEMPS WHICH MAY PLAY A HAND IN THE THREAT OF A
FREEZE BY TUE NIGHT UNDER LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HOWEVER SOIL
MOISTURE FROM ANTECEDENT RAINFALL MAY OFFSET STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING ALTOGETHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        35  61  39  63  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         38  60  36  62  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     39  60  36  62  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  62  37  64  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       41  63  37  64  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   41  63  38  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    41  62  38  65  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     42  63  34  62  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          43  63  36  63  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  65  36  64  51 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23

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