Area Forecast Discussion
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191
FXUS64 KLUB 252034
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
234 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM...WILL
DIVE FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE TODAY INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FACILITATE DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
PULLING EAST INTO ROLLING PLAINS LATER TONIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPE
DOMINATING PRIOR TO A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD MID
TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY THOUGH WONT ACCOUNT FOR DRAMATICALLY
DIFFERENT TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY. A MATURE MOUNTAIN WAVE WILL
RELEASE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES PULLING THINNING HIGH CLOUDS
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT
SHOULD NOT DETRACT FROM A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO FOLLOW. WIND SPEEDS
ALSO NOT LOOKING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY MODEST NORTHERLY
BREEZES FOR THE MOST PART...TAPERING DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TREND TOWARDS SLIGHTLY
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER IS IN THE OFFING FOR LATE NOVEMBER AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE WEST TEXAS MID-WEEK GRADUALLY BACKS TO NEAR
ZONAL BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE TRANSLATES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY BE REPLACED BY A
WESTERN STORM SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED
MOISTURE TO MOST OF CALIFORNIA. CLOSER TO HOME...THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM
BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE PROSPECTS OF
ANY PRECIPITATION /SHOULD IT DEVELOP/ WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LIKELY HOLD UNTIL THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...JUST
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RECOVER BACK ABOVE AVERAGE ON THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY BREEZES RETURN BEHIND TOMORROW/S COLD FRONT AND SURFACE
RIDGING. A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
THEN PROVIDE A PERIOD OF BREEZY AND MILD DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM LATE
WEEK ON INTO THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE TRENDED FORECAST HIGHS UP SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH 70S A GOOD BET FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO ELEVATE THE
FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT. THE WARMTH SHOULD EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END
JUST IN TIME FOR DECEMBER AS A PASSING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OPENS
THE DOOR FOR A CHUNK OF COLD AIR WITH ORIGINS OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN
AND NORTHWEST CANADA. THE THRUST OF THIS COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE
DIRECTED TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY STILL SEE A
GLANCING BLOW LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BACKDOORS THROUGH THE
SOUTH PLAINS. WE HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR THE STRONGER/COLDER ECMWF
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S ON MONDAY. THE
COOL-DOWN SHOULD NOT LAST LONG THOUGH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY
TRANSLATES EAST AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ENVELOPS WEST TEXAS. A
RETURN OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD EVEN BRING THE RISK OF
LOW CLOUDS BY TUESDAY...THOUGH AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THE PROSPECTS
FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST UPPER TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  55  25  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         26  54  27  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     28  55  27  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     26  58  28  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       27  58  30  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   26  60  30  63  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    27  59  30  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  59  33  64  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          30  59  31  65  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     33  61  33  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23

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