Area Forecast Discussion
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243
FXUS64 KLUB 151719
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1219 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING THU AFTN.


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A QUIET 24-HOUR PERIOD IS IN STORE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES THIS MORNING MOVES SLOWLY EWD. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BACK TO WEST BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE AT THE SFC MODEST WEST
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SW. THICKNESS INCREASES SUGGEST
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...
JUST BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...
UNEVENTFUL PATTERN AS OF LATE UNDER MEAN RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
PROGRESSIVE REGIME BY LATE WEEK THANKS TO A SERIES OF PACIFIC
TROUGHS MAKING LANDFALL IN THE WEST. AS THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES
EXITS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL EDGE
SOUTH BEFORE REACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THUR AFTN. A
SHARPENING THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME POISED
SQUARELY ACROSS THE CWA BY PEAK HEATING...SO NEAR RECORD HIGHS
REMAIN A GOOD BET IN THIS DRY WESTERLY FLOW REGIME.

THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH IN LINE WILL ASSUME A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY
LATITUDE AS IT PARTIALLY TEAMS WITH /BUT ULTIMATELY LAGS/ A
SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE CURRENTLY CHURNING TOWARD BAJA CA. AT THE VERY
LEAST WE EXPECT A PLUME OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE
SOUTH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES...BUT
ANYTHING MORE APPEARS UNLIKELY CONSIDERING OVERALL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEFICITS AND LACK OF ASCENT IN THE WAKE OF THU/S FRONT.
THE LATEST ECM SEEMS TOO EAGER WITH TOP-DOWN MOISTENING BY SAT
ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. IN REALITY VIRGA
MAY BE THE ONLY BYPRODUCT HERE AFTER MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE IS
ROBBED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FARTHER WEST.

A MODEST SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THEN SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DIRTY RIDGE
EMERGING OVER WEST TX. THE BRUNT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS
FAVORED TO DIVE SEWD INTO OLD MEXICO BY THE GFS ECM AND CMC MODELS
WITH SIMILAR SUPPORT EVIDENT ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THIS DOES NOT
BODE VERY WELL FOR PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS PROVES
CORRECT IN ABANDONING A SECOND COLD FRONT BY MON. ECM AND CMC
STILL BRING DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE MIDWEST BY SUN
NIGHT AND MON...SO WE/LL RETAIN THIS FROPA FOR MONDAY. WITH
MID/UPPER MOISTURE STILL INTACT UNDER THE RIDGE...IMPROVED
MOISTURE DOWN LOW FROM THE GULF BY THIS TIME MAY WARRANT SOME
LEGITIMATE POPS WITH THIS FROPA IN LATER FORECASTS...BUT WITH
BETTER LIFT TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE AREA...POPS REMAIN SILENT FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  46  82  44  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         81  47  86  45  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     80  46  88  45  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     80  44  90  46  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       80  46  90  47  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   80  45  91  48  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    81  46  91  48  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     83  48  91  48  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          83  47  92  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     83  47  92  51  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26

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