Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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350
FXUS64 KLUB 170215
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
815 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.UPDATE...
OTHER THAN SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PART OF THE FCST AREA...SNOW HAS COME TO AN END FOR THIS EVENT. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HAVE HUNG ONTO
A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION EAST UNTIL 10 PM AT WHICH TIME ALL PRECIP
SHOULD HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO TEMPS TONIGHT. ALREADY WITH CLEAR SKIES
HAVING WORKED IN QUICKLY WITH THE END OF THE SNOW AND THE PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HAVE SEEN TEMPS DROP TO OR EVEN BELOW
FCST...IN PARTICULAR ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES WHERE GREATEST AMOUNT
OF SNOW FELL TODAY. UNSURE HOW MUCH MOVE LOWERING OF DEW POINTS
WILL BE SEEN THAT AREA...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST LOW
TEMPS LIKELY TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW FCST FOR AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK WITH A LITTLE LESS CHANCE OF OVERSHOOTING FCST LOWS ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS TREND IN THIS UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

UPDATE...
SNOW COMING TO AN END ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR BUT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS. NOT MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION BUT
WITH SNOW STILL FALLING AND ROADWAYS SLICK AND ICY HAVE EXTENDED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN 2 COLUMNS OF COUNTIES
TO 8 PM. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED
TRENDS.

AVIATION...
SNOW TO COME TO AN END AT KLBB BY 01Z AND AT KCDS BY 03Z AT THE
LATEST. PRONOUNCED CLEARING OF CLOUDS BEHIND THE END TO THE
PRECIPITATION. ENOUGH DRY AND COLD ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT THAT WE CURRENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
OR STRATUS LATER TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO TRACK FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW IN ITS
WAKE. RADAR RETURNS HAD INDICATED ANOTHER MODERATE AREA OF SNOW NEAR
TUCUMCARI IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT THIS HAS RECENTLY FIZZLED INTO A MUCH
LIGHTER POCKET OF ACTIVITY. AS EXPECTED...THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS HAVE SEEN THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATION TOTALS...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE
LATTER AMOUNT OCCURRING IN HART. WILL SEE POTENTIALLY UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO FARTHER WEST.
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW AS WET BULB COOLING AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION HAVE BROUGHT BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING THUS LEADING
TO SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SET TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM FOR NOW BARRING ANY
UNFORESEEN DEVELOPMENTS.

FRESH SNOW PACK AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. GENERALLY
FAVORED COOLER LOCALES IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS MAY EVEN MAKE A RUN AT SINGLE DIGITS WHILE THE
SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS MAY BE ABLE TO HOLD NEAR THE 20 DEGREE
MARK. WIND CHILLS WILL RESIDE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY WILL BRING A DRY AND COLD START TO THE WEEK AS SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. DECREASING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
MAKE FOR A PICTURE PERFECT DAY...BUT THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL
STAY LOCKED IN PLACE ONLY ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE.

LONG TERM...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH LITTLE IMPACT. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS RISING FROM MAINLY 40S TUESDAY TO
MAINLY 50S THURSDAY. WHILE LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE.
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE SRN CONUS...AND YET ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT IN IT/S WAKE COULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE REGARDING
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT BASIN...AND OFFER
LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IF THE SYSTEM
DIGS DEEP ENOUGH THAT MOISTURE RETURN COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH BLENDED
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT. AND AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE
PLAINS...DRY WESTERLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP ON THE CAPROCK AT SOME
POINT DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND APPEAR LIKELY
TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA         5  35  16  43  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA          8  36  16  44  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW      8  37  19  45  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     10  38  20  46  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       10  39  20  46  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   14  39  21  46  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    14  38  21  46  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     14  39  21  49  28 /  20   0   0   0   0
SPUR          16  40  22  49  30 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     19  43  23  51  32 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29

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