Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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116
FXUS64 KLUB 260933
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
333 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
LONG WAVE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE RIO GRANDE WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR. MEAN
WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL SERVE TO BOOST LL THICKNESSES
LOCALLY...SO HAVE EDGED MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO THE MILDER MAV NUMBERS.
MAV REMAINS FAVORED FOR MIN TEMPS IN THIS PATTERN AS THE MET HAS
PROVEN TOO COOL AS OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS. WEAK FRONT
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES AS DEEP DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING CONTRIBUTE TO
VERY WARM TEMPS FOR LATE JANUARY...ESP WEDNESDAY WITH 70S
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE.

FRONT AND ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT...REVERSING
THE WARMING TREND AND KNOCKING BACK TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES
THURSDAY FROM WEDNESDAY/S HIGHS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AGAIN THURSDAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH ECM AND GFS ARE BULLISH
WITH THIS IDEA...AND GIVEN SIMILARITY OF SOLUTIONS AND PRESENCE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NE AHEAD OF UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH SRN CALIFORNIA. CONTINUED TREND OF UPPING
POPS FURTHER IN THIS TIME FRAME. DON`T THINK GFS HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE NECESSARILY UNREASONABLE GIVEN PATTERN.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE SOUTH IN WAKE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THERE IS
AGREEMENT ON COLDER AIR SATURDAY...WHICH COULD CHANGE PRECIP. TO
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. A BREAK IN
THE ACTION LIKELY SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW HEADS SOUTH ALONG
BAJA...BEFORE THE LOW OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  33  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         67  36  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     68  35  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     68  35  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  35  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   69  36  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    70  35  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     76  41  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          73  40  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     74  40  72  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/06

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