Area Forecast Discussion
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149
FXUS64 KLUB 161713
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1213 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WILL MOVE
PAST BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE WRN OKLA TO WRAP IN BEHIND THE FRONT TOWARD 12Z WITH
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KCDS. KLBB LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL ALSO SEE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE ESEWD ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WITH SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS KCDS...BUT THAT CHANCE STILL TOO LOW TO INSERT
MENTION IN THE TAF ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH ALL OF TODAY. WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS AT KLBB BUT 15 TO 25
KTS AT KCDS. WIND WILL GO LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST AFTER SUNSET AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BUT SHOULD REMAIN OUT
OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS FORECAST. KCDS MAY SEE MVFR CEILINGS
TOMORROW MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING AND WHETHER IT WILL OCCUR OR
NOT.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAPROCK EARLY THIS
MORNING THANKS TO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AS DETECTED BY THE WEST
TEXAS MESONET SODAR LOCATED AT REESE.  00Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
ZONAL FLOW WAS IN PLACE ALOFT WHICH HAS HELPED A LEE SURFACE TROF
DEVELOP.  THE TROF AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE TX/NM STATE
LINE AND MODELS KEEP THIS FEATURE THERE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
STARTING TO SHIFT IT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY.  THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL FORECAST TO TIGHTEN UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WIND SPEEDS PICK UP
FROM THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  GUIDANCE HAS
COME DOWN A FEW KNOTS WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT WE SHOULD STILL SEE
AROUND 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  THE SOUTH
PLAINS SHOULD SEE LOWER SPEEDS THANKS TO BEING CLOSER TO THE TROF
AXIS.  THIS POSES AN INTERESTING PROBLEM FOR FIRE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH TONIGHT...MODELS DEEPEN A SHORTWAVE TROF ACROSS
THE NM/CO BORDER WHILE ALSO SLIDING IT EAST TOWARDS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
INITIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AS THE COOLER AIR INITIALLY SLIDES
SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY TO TAKE PLACE AS DEWPOINTS
START TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.  EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...NONE OF THE MODELS
GENERATE ANY FORM OF PRECIPITATION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO MOST OF THE LIFT INITIALLY REMAINING NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA AND MEAGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.  MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE QUITE A SPREAD FROM THE UPPER 30S IN A
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE TO LOW 50S IN THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AIRMASS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
MENTION FOR TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY INCREASE THEM ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...STILL BELOW MENTION...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES INTO THE DAY THURSDAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
MAIN INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND RAIN CHANCES...
INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THURSDAY...THEN OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM OF CONCERN CURRENTLY IS A RELATIVELY BENIGN
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF A MORE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EMERGE OVER
THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD
SYSTEM AND REINFORCED BY THE CLOSER SECONDARY WAVE...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO NOSE
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ON THE CAPROCK THURSDAY MORNING...BUT TAKE ITS
TIME ADVANCING THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
INITIALLY...THE APPROACHING WAVE WILL BE STARVED OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT WILL BEGIN TO TAP IMPROVING MOISTURE AS IT EMERGES
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND CHILDRESS
APPEAR TO BE IN THE MOST FAVORED SPOT FOR THE COMBINATION OF THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT IN OUR AREA...AND THUS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY /LIKELY FAVORING THURSDAY MORNING/.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS WE HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY NORTH AND EAST OF A BRICE TO PADUCAH LINE. IT WILL
BE COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
FROPA...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...DECENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAPROCK. THIS MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR AND COULD ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF
STRATUS DEVELOPING...PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...WE DID RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES...MORE IN
LINE WITH THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL THEN
RETURN FRIDAY...AND ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING BACK UP TO
AROUND MID-APRIL AVERAGES. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP MODEST
MOISTURE IN PLACE AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OF INTEREST BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF AN OPEN
TROUGH...BUT IT SHOULD HAVE A GOOD TAP OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
OFF THE PACIFIC...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE DECENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL ACT TO BOOST PWATS TO LEVELS WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN
SOME TIME...TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE
FORCING WILL NOT BE OVERWHELMING WITH THE UPPER WAVE...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH IN THE RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT...AND WE EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A LEAD IMPULSE COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...THOUGH THE BEST WINDOW FOR
RAIN CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. IN
ADDITION...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD
EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM...THOUGH FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAIN
RATES WILL HOPEFULLY LEAD TO DECENT RAINS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. SLIM
RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES EARLY EASTER
MORNING...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL BE DRY-SLOTTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER
AFTERNOON.

A WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT DRYING MID/UPPER LEVELS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND AND WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...WE CAN NOT
RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER/STORM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WITHOUT ANY
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND WARRANT POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT. THINGS MAY EVENTUALLY GET MORE INTERESTING TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR MORE CLASSIC SPRINGTIME DRYLINE ACTIVITY LOCALLY...THOUGH
MUCH NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.
HOWEVER...20 FT WIND SPEEDS WHERE THE LOWEST RH VALUES ARE WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.  RED FLAG
AND EVEN INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL VALUES FOR THOSE PRODUCTS.  ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS...CONDITIONS WILL BE RIGHT AT OR JUST UNDER CRITICAL
RED FLAG VALUES.  WIND WILL SLOWLY SWING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN WIND SPEEDS ARE USUALLY THE STRONGEST.
BECAUSE CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AND WILL GO WITH A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT INSTEAD.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  39  62  39  73 /   0  10  10   0  10
TULIA         77  41  61  40  73 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     76  43  62  40  73 /   0  10  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     77  42  67  43  74 /   0  10  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       76  44  65  43  75 /   0  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   77  44  69  44  74 /   0   0  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    77  44  69  45  74 /   0  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     78  49  60  44  76 /   0  10  30  10   0
SPUR          76  49  65  43  77 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  52  69  46  78 /   0  10  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07

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