Area Forecast Discussion
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897
FXUS64 KLUB 241945
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
245 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT YESTERDAY/S TSTM ACTIVITY AND TODAY/S GUSTY
FRONT WILL QUICKLY MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AS BROAD
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. AS WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...RETURN FLOW SHOULD BEGIN OUT WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AND
EXPAND QUICKLY TO THE ENTIRE CWFA AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS TO
OUR WEST.

MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT RAPID ALTHOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY
INTENSE. IN FACT THE BEST MOISTURE RETURN MAY VERY WELL EXIST IN
THE MID LEVELS OUT EAST THUS BRINGING WITH IT A RISK OF VIRGA
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS BENEATH. THE MORE IMPORTANT WEATHER-MAKER
WILL LIKELY BE PROSPECTS FOR ELEVATED TO LOW-END CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER GENERALLY WEST OF A POST TO MEMPHIS LINE. SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAIL. OTHERWISE...A
BREEZY...WARM...AND SUNNY WEST TEXAS DAY IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
A THREAT OF VIRGA SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ON FRIDAY AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS BACK WEST AND MOISTURE
SURGES BACK INTO THE REGION.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MOISTURE WILL MAKE A COMEBACK IN ADVANCE OF
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT COMES OUT ONTO THE PLAINS
LATE ON SATURDAY. THIS MEANS TIMING WILL NOT BE IDEAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUMS DO NOT COME OUT UNTIL
SUNDAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING TIMING WILL NOT HAVE GREAT INTERACTION
WITH THE DRYLINE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL NOT MAX OUT UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT MOISTURE WILL HOLD
ON IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE FROM 00-06Z WITH THE
DRYLINE RETREATING AND INTERACTING WITH THE PACIFIC FRONT.
ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THE RETREATING DRYLINE IS STILL UNCERTAIN
THE TENDENCY IS FOR THE DRYLINE TO MOVE FARTHER WESTWARD THAN WHAT
THE GFS/NAM HAVE BEEN DEPICTING. THE ECMWF PLACEMENT AROUND THE
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS FAVORED GIVEN AN
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH. ANALOG GUIDANCE ALSO
FAVORS ARE MORE WESTWARD PLACEMENT TO THE DRYLINE. HIGH CAPES
EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE MORE THAN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
STORMS. INSTABILITY MAY ALSO COMBINE WITH INCREASING SHEAR WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY LEADING TO
POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE JET CORES ALOFT
WILL MISS THE REGION WITH THE 250/500MB MAXIMUMS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE MEXMOS IS DEPICTING MUCH MORE INCREDIBLE SPEEDS THAN
THE ECMWF ALTHOUGH BLOWING DUST IS LIKELY EITHER WAY. THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK LEADING TO
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THOUGH MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 10 TO 15 PCT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH
20 FT WINDS NEAR 20 MPH...CONSENSUS IS THAT THE LIMITED FUELS ARE
NOT OVERLY VOLATILE AT THIS TIME. THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT THE
GRASS WILL NOT BURN IF IGNITED...BUT THUS FAR THIS SPRING...WE
HAVE SEEN SCANT FEW FIRES EVEN WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
METEOROLOGICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL THEREFORE ELECT TO
NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME...THUS
CHOOSING TO PLACE MORE EMPHASIS ON GREATER THREAT INTO SATURDAY.

INCREASINGLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE
OBSERVED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE REGION WILL CAUSE A DRYLINE TO SURGE EAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAVE MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND A
PORTION OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE BELOW 10 PERCENT ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  84  50  86  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         49  86  54  89  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     51  86  57  89  52 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     51  87  58  89  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       52  87  60  90  54 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   52  86  57  89  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    52  87  59  90  54 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     52  87  61  92  58 /   0   0   0  20  30
SPUR          53  87  60  92  58 /   0   0  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     54  87  64  93  62 /   0   0  10  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

26/01

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