Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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794
FXUS64 KLUB 192332
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
532 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING UPPER
CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE BEARING
SEA WILL BECOME SHEARED AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM COMES ASHORE
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREAT BASIN...A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS WILL SCOOT TO WEST CENTRAL TX BY LATE THURSDAY. WHILE
THE POLAR JET WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...A SUBTROPICAL JET
MAX WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE
SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. THAT SAID...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SURFACE LOW
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OUT NEAR HOBBS FOR MUCH OF TOMORROW
KEEPING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN CHECK.

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE TOMORROW WILL DIVE DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN US. MODELS TRENDED TOWARDS A GENERAL SLOWING DOWN OF
THE TROUGH BY A FEW HOURS AS IT IMPACTS WEST TEXAS AT THE END OF
THE WEEK. IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SPREAD OVER ON
SATURDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL
MOSTLY BE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE LOW
LEVEL JET WINDS ALSO ARE MORE VEERED THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
SHIFTING MOST OF THE QPF OUTPUT TO THE EAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS...POPS WERE CUT BACK NEAR THE TEXAS...NEW MEXICO STATE LINE
BUT WILL REMAIN LIKELY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS.

MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALTHOUGH THE NAM SEEMS TO DISAGREE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO GULF MOISTURE
MAKING ITS WAY TO AT LEAST THE ROLLING PLAINS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL GET A SIGNIFICANT BOOST FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SOURCING A PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL PROMOTE STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL. HOWEVER...A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN SEVERE WEATHER. SURFACE CONDITIONS
BECOME CONVOLUTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH MOVING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  60  26  62  35 /   0   0   0   0  20
TULIA         28  58  28  60  36 /   0   0   0   0  30
PLAINVIEW     30  60  29  62  38 /   0   0   0   0  30
LEVELLAND     32  65  30  63  39 /   0   0   0   0  30
LUBBOCK       32  62  31  64  40 /   0   0   0   0  40
DENVER CITY   33  66  33  65  41 /   0   0   0   0  30
BROWNFIELD    33  66  31  64  41 /   0   0   0   0  40
CHILDRESS     31  59  33  58  42 /   0   0  10  10  40
SPUR          34  63  34  63  42 /   0   0   0   0  50
ASPERMONT     35  64  38  64  46 /   0   0   0   0  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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