Area Forecast Discussion
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994
FXUS64 KLUB 230051
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
651 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
POSITION OF DRYLINE AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WILL
HOLD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AS SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE DOWN TO AROUND 2 DEG F ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER
08Z...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE MORNING. AS THIS IS THE FIRST
DECENT WIND EVENT AFTER A RATHER MOIST FALL...AM HESITANT TO
INTRODUCE MENTION OF BLOWING DUST ON SUNDAY BUT ALAS...WE WILL SEE
HOW THINGS GO.


&&

.AVIATION...
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS AND OR FOG WILL
PERSIST AT KCDS THROUGH AROUND 08Z WHEN DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED AT BOTH
TERMINALS. THAT SAID...WINDS WILL PICK UP SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE
FRONT AND BY MID-SUNDAY MORNING...DOWNRIGHT WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. GA PILOTS PLANNING TO FLY ON SUNDAY MIGHT WANT TO BRING
AN EXTRA STASH OF LINED BAGS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE WEATHER WILL NOT BE SETTLING DOWN ON SUNDAY DESPITE THE
DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REPLACE THE MOIST CONDITIONS IN PLACE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. A STRONG
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WINDS WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS
WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW
SIDE OF GUIDANCE DEPICTS WINDS AT 500MB BETWEEN 60 AND 70KT. WE
WILL NOT LIKELY SEE MIXING TO 700MB BUT DEEP MIXING NONETHELESS
WILL BE ABLE TO CONTRIBUTE TO GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE
SURFACE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND AN IMPRESSIVE 60KT AT
700MB. ADDING A LITTLE COMPLICATION TO THE WIND FORECAST WILL BE
THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH. THERE MAY ONLY BE A LIMITED AREA
THAT THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THIS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...
WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY AS
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MOVING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP A COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME COOL AIR WITH THIS FRONT BUT IT ONLY DROP
TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY. FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL ALSO BE DRY AS LITTLE TO NO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE BUT THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THAT
ARRIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS COULD MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER
DUE TO A LACK OF INSOLATION WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM UP FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND SURFACE WIND SWINGS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST AS A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROF SETS UP SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH A POSSIBLE FRONT
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS BRINGING IN A
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SAGS A BACKDOOR FRONT IN TO THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE WASHING IT OUT.
WILL NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  52  25  49  20 /   0  10  10   0   0
TULIA         39  53  28  52  25 /  10  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     42  55  29  52  25 /  10  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     42  58  29  52  25 /   0   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       43  59  30  53  26 /  10   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   41  61  29  53  26 /   0   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    42  60  30  54  26 /  10   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     43  62  35  57  33 /  10  10  10   0   0
SPUR          45  63  34  56  33 /  10   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     46  66  34  58  33 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99/26
327
FXUS64 KLUB 222324
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
524 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH THROUGH
03Z...THERE IS A RISK OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS AT KCDS. WINDS WILL PICK
UP AT BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND BECOME DOWNRIGHT WINDY BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL NOT BE PLEASANT FLYING WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
SUNDAY--MAY WANT TO CARRY EXTRA LINED BAGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE WEATHER WILL NOT BE SETTLING DOWN ON SUNDAY DESPITE THE
DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REPLACE THE MOIST CONDITIONS IN PLACE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. A STRONG
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WINDS WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS
WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW
SIDE OF GUIDANCE DEPICTS WINDS AT 500MB BETWEEN 60 AND 70KT. WE
WILL NOT LIKELY SEE MIXING TO 700MB BUT DEEP MIXING NONETHELESS
WILL BE ABLE TO CONTRIBUTE TO GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE
SURFACE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND AN IMPRESSIVE 60KT AT
700MB. ADDING A LITTLE COMPLICATION TO THE WIND FORECAST WILL BE
THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH. THERE MAY ONLY BE A LIMITED AREA
THAT THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THIS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...
WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY AS
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MOVING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP A COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME COOL AIR WITH THIS FRONT BUT IT ONLY DROP
TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY. FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL ALSO BE DRY AS LITTLE TO NO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE BUT THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THAT
ARRIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS COULD MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER
DUE TO A LACK OF INSOLATION WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM UP FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND SURFACE WIND SWINGS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST AS A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROF SETS UP SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH A POSSIBLE FRONT
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS BRINGING IN A
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SAGS A BACKDOOR FRONT IN TO THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE WASHING IT OUT.
WILL NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  52  25  49  20 /   0  10  10   0   0
TULIA         39  53  28  52  25 /  10  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     42  55  29  52  25 /  10  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     42  58  29  52  25 /   0   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       43  59  30  53  26 /  10   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   41  61  29  53  26 /   0   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    42  60  30  54  26 /  10   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     43  62  35  57  33 /  10  10  10   0   0
SPUR          45  63  34  56  33 /  10   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     46  66  34  58  33 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99
558
FXUS64 KLUB 222134
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
334 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE WEATHER WILL NOT BE SETTLING DOWN ON SUNDAY DESPITE THE
DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REPLACE THE MOIST CONDITIONS IN PLACE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. A STRONG
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WINDS WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS
WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW
SIDE OF GUIDANCE DEPICTS WINDS AT 500MB BETWEEN 60 AND 70KT. WE
WILL NOT LIKELY SEE MIXING TO 700MB BUT DEEP MIXING NONETHELESS
WILL BE ABLE TO CONTRIBUTE TO GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE
SURFACE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND AN IMPRESSIVE 60KT AT
700MB. ADDING A LITTLE COMPLICATION TO THE WIND FORECAST WILL BE
THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH. THERE MAY ONLY BE A LIMITED AREA
THAT THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THIS CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY AS
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MOVING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP A COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME COOL AIR WITH THIS FRONT BUT IT ONLY DROP
TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY. FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL ALSO BE DRY AS LITTLE TO NO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE BUT THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THAT
ARRIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS COULD MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER
DUE TO A LACK OF INSOLATION WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM UP FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND SURFACE WIND SWINGS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST AS A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROF SETS UP SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH A POSSIBLE FRONT
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS BRINGING IN A
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SAGS A BACKDOOR FRONT IN TO THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE WASHING IT OUT.
WILL NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  52  25  49  20 /   0  10  10   0   0
TULIA         39  53  28  52  25 /  10  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     42  55  29  52  25 /  10  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     42  58  29  52  25 /   0   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       43  59  30  53  26 /  10   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   41  61  29  53  26 /   0   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    42  60  30  54  26 /  10   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     43  62  35  57  33 /  10  10  10   0   0
SPUR          45  63  34  56  33 /  10   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     46  66  34  58  33 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14
827
FXUS64 KLUB 221720
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1120 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
TODAY. ALTHOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF
KLBB WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS KCDS...THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE EASTERLY MOVEMENT AND MAY NOT AFFECT THE
KCDS TERMINAL. WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS AND VISBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RETURN BUT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. STRONG WINDS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SURFACE
WINDS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AT BOTH TAF SITES. GIVEN THE TIME OF
YEAR...IT IS UNCLEAR ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY VISBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLDU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF LIFT IN AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT AREA MOVING OUT OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. THIS LIFT WAS RESULTING IN SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHERE SHORT TERM MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW NO
DEVELOPMENT. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING IN ANTICIPATION FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS. THIS LIFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VLIFR FOG AND LIFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KCDS THIS
MORNING...WITH KLBB VIS DROPPING BELOW 10 SM AND FEW DECKS BELOW
2000 FT AGL. WILL EXPECT KLBB TO FURTHER DETERIORATE LATER THIS
MORNING TO MVFR FOG AND IFR DECKS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CATEGORY BY MID-MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
WEST SOUTHWEST THIS AFTN AND BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY TOWARDS THE
END OF TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE UA LOW
DIGGING ESE ACROSS NWRN OLD MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
AID TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES LATER THIS MORNING.

AN AREA OF STRATUS AND FOGGY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS
ERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PER 08Z METARS...THUS COINCIDING WITH THE
BEST SFC MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S/. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
HAVE IMPACTED THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING
GIVEN A LOW TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD. THE HRRR SOLUTION HANDLED THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG QUITE WELL YESTERDAY...AND SINCE
IT SHOWS A CONTINUAL WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
UNTIL MID-MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REFLECT THAT PROGRESSION.

AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS WAS NOTED EAST OF THE
FA AND WITH THE AID OF A BIT OF UL SUPPORT FROM THE UA LOW ACROSS
NWRN OLD MEXICO...RADAR ANALYSIS DEPICTED SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY AREAS. WITH
THE LLJ PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AND A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE /PWATS INCREASING TO AOA 1.10
INCHES/...CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD POSE A  THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS
PWATS INCREASE TO ABOVE 1.00 INCH THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING.
FURTHERMORE...MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 40 KTS...SUGGEST SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
COULD APPROACH STRONG LEVELS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT
/PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/. STORMS WILL LINGER INTO
EARLY AFTN WHERE THEREAFTER...MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING A DRYING
PROFILE AND THE UA LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS SE TX WILL RESULT IN
PRECIP EXITING THE REGION. BY LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...A
DEEPENING SFC LOW PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
PROMOTE W-SW SFC WINDS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY BY THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORM TODAY /MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S/
FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT /UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S/.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS UNDERNEATH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS
UPPER FLOW WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE PERIODS OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE STRONGEST WINDS COMING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...POSSIBLY MEETING ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH THE WARMEST DAYS LIKELY
BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STILL SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
A BRIEF INCURSION OF COLD AIR TOWARD FRIDAY...BUT CERTAINLY NOW
CONSENSUS IN THAT REGARD ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  38  53  23  49 /  10   0  10  10   0
TULIA         67  40  53  25  52 /  20  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     67  41  56  26  53 /  20  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     66  42  60  27  53 /  20   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       66  43  61  27  54 /  50  10   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   65  41  62  28  53 /  30   0   0  10   0
BROWNFIELD    65  42  61  28  54 /  50  10   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     67  45  62  32  56 /  60  10   0  10   0
SPUR          67  45  63  35  58 /  60  10   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     69  46  66  34  58 /  80  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
970
FXUS64 KLUB 221506 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
906 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF LIFT IN AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT AREA MOVING OUT OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. THIS LIFT WAS RESULTING IN SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHERE SHORT TERM MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW NO
DEVELOPMENT. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING IN ANTICIPATION FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS. THIS LIFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VLIFR FOG AND LIFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KCDS THIS
MORNING...WITH KLBB VIS DROPPING BELOW 10 SM AND FEW DECKS BELOW
2000 FT AGL. WILL EXPECT KLBB TO FURTHER DETERIORATE LATER THIS
MORNING TO MVFR FOG AND IFR DECKS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CATEGORY BY MID-MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
WEST SOUTHWEST THIS AFTN AND BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY TOWARDS THE
END OF TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE UA LOW
DIGGING ESE ACROSS NWRN OLD MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
AID TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES LATER THIS MORNING.

AN AREA OF STRATUS AND FOGGY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS
ERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PER 08Z METARS...THUS COINCIDING WITH THE
BEST SFC MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S/. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
HAVE IMPACTED THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING
GIVEN A LOW TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD. THE HRRR SOLUTION HANDLED THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG QUITE WELL YESTERDAY...AND SINCE
IT SHOWS A CONTINUAL WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
UNTIL MID-MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REFLECT THAT PROGRESSION.

AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS WAS NOTED EAST OF THE
FA AND WITH THE AID OF A BIT OF UL SUPPORT FROM THE UA LOW ACROSS
NWRN OLD MEXICO...RADAR ANALYSIS DEPICTED SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY AREAS. WITH
THE LLJ PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AND A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE /PWATS INCREASING TO AOA 1.10
INCHES/...CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD POSE A  THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS
PWATS INCREASE TO ABOVE 1.00 INCH THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING.
FURTHERMORE...MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 40 KTS...SUGGEST SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
COULD APPROACH STRONG LEVELS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT
/PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/. STORMS WILL LINGER INTO
EARLY AFTN WHERE THEREAFTER...MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING A DRYING
PROFILE AND THE UA LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS SE TX WILL RESULT IN
PRECIP EXITING THE REGION. BY LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...A
DEEPENING SFC LOW PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
PROMOTE W-SW SFC WINDS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY BY THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORM TODAY /MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S/
FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT /UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S/.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS UNDERNEATH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS
UPPER FLOW WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE PERIODS OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE STRONGEST WINDS COMING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...POSSIBLY MEETING ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH THE WARMEST DAYS LIKELY
BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STILL SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
A BRIEF INCURSION OF COLD AIR TOWARD FRIDAY...BUT CERTAINLY NOW
CONSENSUS IN THAT REGARD ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  38  53  23  49 /  10   0  10  10   0
TULIA         67  40  53  25  52 /  20  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     67  41  56  26  53 /  20  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     66  42  60  27  53 /  20   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       66  43  61  27  54 /  50  10   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   65  41  62  28  53 /  30   0   0  10   0
BROWNFIELD    65  42  61  28  54 /  50  10   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     67  45  62  32  56 /  60  10   0  10   0
SPUR          67  45  63  35  58 /  60  10   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     69  46  66  34  58 /  80  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
437
FXUS64 KLUB 221124
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
524 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VLIFR FOG AND LIFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KCDS THIS
MORNING...WITH KLBB VIS DROPPING BELOW 10 SM AND FEW DECKS BELOW
2000 FT AGL. WILL EXPECT KLBB TO FURTHER DETERIORATE LATER THIS
MORNING TO MVFR FOG AND IFR DECKS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CATEGORY BY MID-MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
WEST SOUTHWEST THIS AFTN AND BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY TOWARDS THE
END OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE UA LOW
DIGGING ESE ACROSS NWRN OLD MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
AID TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES LATER THIS MORNING.

AN AREA OF STRATUS AND FOGGY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS
ERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PER 08Z METARS...THUS COINCIDING WITH THE
BEST SFC MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S/. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
HAVE IMPACTED THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING
GIVEN A LOW TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD. THE HRRR SOLUTION HANDLED THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG QUITE WELL YESTERDAY...AND SINCE
IT SHOWS A CONTINUAL WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
UNTIL MID-MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REFLECT THAT PROGRESSION.

AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS WAS NOTED EAST OF THE
FA AND WITH THE AID OF A BIT OF UL SUPPORT FROM THE UA LOW ACROSS
NWRN OLD MEXICO...RADAR ANALYSIS DEPICTED SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY AREAS. WITH
THE LLJ PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AND A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE /PWATS INCREASING TO AOA 1.10
INCHES/...CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD POSE A  THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS
PWATS INCREASE TO ABOVE 1.00 INCH THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING.
FURTHERMORE...MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 40 KTS...SUGGEST SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
COULD APPROACH STRONG LEVELS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT
/PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/. STORMS WILL LINGER INTO
EARLY AFTN WHERE THEREAFTER...MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING A DRYING
PROFILE AND THE UA LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS SE TX WILL RESULT IN
PRECIP EXITING THE REGION. BY LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...A
DEEPENING SFC LOW PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
PROMOTE W-SW SFC WINDS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY BY THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORM TODAY /MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S/
FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT /UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S/.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS UNDERNEATH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS
UPPER FLOW WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE PERIODS OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE STRONGEST WINDS COMING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...POSSIBLY MEETING ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH THE WARMEST DAYS LIKELY
BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STILL SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
A BRIEF INCURSION OF COLD AIR TOWARD FRIDAY...BUT CERTAINLY NOW
CONSENSUS IN THAT REGARD ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  38  53  23  49 /  10   0  10  10   0
TULIA         67  40  53  25  52 /  10  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     67  41  56  26  53 /  20  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     66  42  60  27  53 /  20   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       66  43  61  27  54 /  20  10   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   65  41  62  28  53 /  20   0   0  10   0
BROWNFIELD    65  42  61  28  54 /  20  10   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     67  45  62  32  56 /  30  10   0  10   0
SPUR          67  45  63  35  58 /  50  10   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     69  46  66  34  58 /  80  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
914
FXUS64 KLUB 220814
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
214 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE UA LOW
DIGGING ESE ACROSS NWRN OLD MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
AID TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES LATER THIS MORNING.

AN AREA OF STRATUS AND FOGGY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS
ERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PER 08Z METARS...THUS COINCIDING WITH THE
BEST SFC MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S/. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
HAVE IMPACTED THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING
GIVEN A LOW TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD. THE HRRR SOLUTION HANDLED THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG QUITE WELL YESTERDAY...AND SINCE
IT SHOWS A CONTINUAL WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
UNTIL MID-MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REFLECT THAT PROGRESSION.

AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS WAS NOTED EAST OF THE
FA AND WITH THE AID OF A BIT OF UL SUPPORT FROM THE UA LOW ACROSS
NWRN OLD MEXICO...RADAR ANALYSIS DEPICTED SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY AREAS. WITH
THE LLJ PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AND A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE /PWATS INCREASING TO AOA 1.10
INCHES/...CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD POSE A  THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS
PWATS INCREASE TO ABOVE 1.00 INCH THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING.
FURTHERMORE...MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 40 KTS...SUGGEST SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
COULD APPROACH STRONG LEVELS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT
/PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/. STORMS WILL LINGER INTO
EARLY AFTN WHERE THEREAFTER...MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING A DRYING
PROFILE AND THE UA LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS SE TX WILL RESULT IN
PRECIP EXITING THE REGION. BY LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...A
DEEPENING SFC LOW PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
PROMOTE W-SW SFC WINDS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY BY THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORM TODAY /MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S/
FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT /UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S/.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NO SIGNFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS UNDERNEATH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS
UPPER FLOW WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE PERIODS OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE STRONGEST WINDS COMING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...POSSIBLY MEETING ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH THE WARMEST DAYS LIKELY
BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STILL SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
A BRIEF INCURSION OF COLD AIR TOWARD FRIDAY...BUT CERTAINLY NOW
CONSENSUS IN THAT REGARD ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  38  53  26  48 /  10   0  10  10   0
TULIA         66  40  56  30  50 /  20  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     66  42  58  31  51 /  20  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     65  43  60  31  51 /  20  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       66  44  61  32  52 /  30  10  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   65  42  63  31  52 /  20  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    66  43  63  31  53 /  30  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     65  45  63  37  56 /  60  10  10  10   0
SPUR          67  48  65  37  56 /  60  10   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     67  49  67  39  57 /  80  20   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07
647
FXUS64 KLUB 220552
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1152 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN RADAR TRENDS SHOWING PRECIPITATION
FIRING EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. SHOULD STILL SEE SOME ACTIVITY
WITH APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT WILL ADVERTISE THIS EASTWARD
TREND WHERE MUCH RICHER MOISTURE RESIDES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S/60S. FOG CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD...BUT NOT EXPECTING A LONG
DURATION OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES
SETTLING IN AT KCDS. EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS TO TAKE PLACE IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO...LIKELY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING.
COULD SEE SOME MVFR MIXED IN...BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN IFR IF
TRENDS CONTINUE. KLBB SHOULD DEGRADE TO MVFR WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH IFR A GOOD BET BY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BOTH SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME MIXING. REGARDING TSRA
POTENTIAL...WITH PRECIPITATION INITIATING EAST OF KCDS WHERE MUCH
RICHER MOISTURE RESIDES...HAVE PULLED MENTION FOR NOW BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FOR TONIGHT AS READINGS HAVE
APPROACHED FORECAST LOWS IN LOCATIONS WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE SLOWER TO FILL IN THAN EXPECTED. BRUNT OF LIFT WITH UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO NUDGE INTO WEST TEXAS...SO WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE WHERE GREATER MOISTURE RESIDES IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS SAID LIFT MOVES OVERHEAD. FOG
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND EASTERN
ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. EXPECT THIS TO
SPREAD WESTWARD WITH TIME THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES SONORA INTO CHIHUAHUA. INCREASING MOISTURE
ON SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LOWER CEILINGS AND ALLOW FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS. HAVE KEPT IFR CEILINGS AT KCDS
FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PREVAILING
-TSRA MENTION AROUND THE 09-14Z TIMEFRAME. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO
DROP TO IFR...ALTHOUGH...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
LIFR. FORECASTING KLBB TO DIP DOWN TO MVFR CRITERIA THIS EVENING
BEFORE IFR SETS IN AROUND 09Z. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
EAST OF KLBB...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD ENSUE BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DWINDLING
RAIN CHANCES AND DAYTIME MIXING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST MODEL ITERATIONS HAVE
CONTINUED THEIR TRENDS OF DIGGING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
THAN EVEN JUST 24 HOURS AGO. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GOOD INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AT MOST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE DEEPEST LIFT
WILL CIRCUMVENT THE REGION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND POINTS EASTWARD. THIS IS ALSO
EVIDENCED BY THE STRONGEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA. BACKING WINDS ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES THIS EVENING
WILL GARNER SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE CAPROCK WILL NOT BE COUPLED
WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL LIFT FROM THIS TROUGH. THEREFORE ANY
PRECIPITATION ON THE CAPROCK WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT. LIFT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GREATER THAN ONE INCH OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND NEAR
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ON THE CAPROCK. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME WILL ALLOW ELEVATED INSTABILITIES TO RISE OVERNIGHT
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. THESE INSTABILITIES
COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40KT MAY CREATE SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THUNDER WILL BE LIKELY IN THIS
ATMOSPHERE...SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN
VERY LOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST DRY AIR CAN PUSH ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT MOST LIKELY SCENARIO HAS THE
PRECIPITATION ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO BUMP WIND SPEEDS
POTENTIALLY UP INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP US DRY AND COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT STRONGER AND TAKING
IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
STRONG THE FRONT WILL BE AS THE ECMWF WOULD FAVOR TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF WHAT THE MODELS HAVE FOR THURSDAY. COOL DOWN COULD
BE MODERATED SOME BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA
AT THE SAME TIME AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO SWING
SURFACE WIND TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM
THINGS UP AND MAY BRING RETURN FLOW/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BACK
TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MODELS CONTINUE
TO TRY AND GENERATE SOME QPF IN THE LATTER PERIODS BUT KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  37  66  38  53 /   0   0  10   0  10
TULIA         65  39  66  40  56 /   0  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     68  41  66  42  58 /   0  10  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     68  40  65  43  60 /   0  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  43  66  44  61 /   0  20  30  10  10
DENVER CITY   70  44  65  42  63 /   0  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  43  66  43  63 /   0  20  30  10  10
CHILDRESS     56  40  65  45  63 /   0  40  60  10  10
SPUR          66  46  67  48  65 /   0  40  60  10   0
ASPERMONT     72  48  67  49  67 /  10  60  80  20   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
693
FXUS64 KLUB 220358
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
958 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FOR TONIGHT AS READINGS HAVE
APPROACHED FORECAST LOWS IN LOCATIONS WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE SLOWER TO FILL IN THAN EXPECTED. BRUNT OF LIFT WITH UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO NUDGE INTO WEST TEXAS...SO WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE WHERE GREATER MOISTURE RESIDES IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS SAID LIFT MOVES OVERHEAD. FOG
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND EASTERN
ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. EXPECT THIS TO
SPREAD WESTWARD WITH TIME THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES SONORA INTO CHIHUAHUA. INCREASING MOISTURE
ON SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LOWER CEILINGS AND ALLOW FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS. HAVE KEPT IFR CEILINGS AT KCDS
FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PREVAILING
-TSRA MENTION AROUND THE 09-14Z TIMEFRAME. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO
DROP TO IFR...ALTHOUGH...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
LIFR. FORECASTING KLBB TO DIP DOWN TO MVFR CRITERIA THIS EVENING
BEFORE IFR SETS IN AROUND 09Z. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
EAST OF KLBB...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD ENSUE BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DWINDLING
RAIN CHANCES AND DAYTIME MIXING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST MODEL ITERATIONS HAVE
CONTINUED THEIR TRENDS OF DIGGING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
THAN EVEN JUST 24 HOURS AGO. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GOOD INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AT MOST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE DEEPEST LIFT
WILL CIRCUMVENT THE REGION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND POINTS EASTWARD. THIS IS ALSO
EVIDENCED BY THE STRONGEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA. BACKING WINDS ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES THIS EVENING
WILL GARNER SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE CAPROCK WILL NOT BE COUPLED
WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL LIFT FROM THIS TROUGH. THEREFORE ANY
PRECIPITATION ON THE CAPROCK WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT. LIFT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GREATER THAN ONE INCH OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND NEAR
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ON THE CAPROCK. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME WILL ALLOW ELEVATED INSTABILITIES TO RISE OVERNIGHT
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. THESE INSTABILITIES
COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40KT MAY CREATE SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THUNDER WILL BE LIKELY IN THIS
ATMOSPHERE...SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN
VERY LOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST DRY AIR CAN PUSH ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT MOST LIKELY SCENARIO HAS THE
PRECIPITATION ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO BUMP WIND SPEEDS
POTENTIALLY UP INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP US DRY AND COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT STRONGER AND TAKING
IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
STRONG THE FRONT WILL BE AS THE ECMWF WOULD FAVOR TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF WHAT THE MODELS HAVE FOR THURSDAY. COOL DOWN COULD
BE MODERATED SOME BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA
AT THE SAME TIME AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO SWING
SURFACE WIND TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM
THINGS UP AND MAY BRING RETURN FLOW/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BACK
TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MODELS CONTINUE
TO TRY AND GENERATE SOME QPF IN THE LATTER PERIODS BUT KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  66  38  53  26 /  10  10   0  10  10
TULIA         39  66  40  56  30 /  20  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     41  66  42  58  31 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     40  65  43  60  31 /  30  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       43  66  44  61  32 /  30  30  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   44  65  42  63  31 /  30  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    43  66  43  63  31 /  30  30  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     40  65  45  63  37 /  60  60  10  10  10
SPUR          46  67  48  65  37 /  60  60  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     48  67  49  67  39 /  80  80  20   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
491
FXUS64 KLUB 220006
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
606 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES SONORA INTO CHIHUAHUA. INCREASING MOISTURE
ON SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LOWER CEILINGS AND ALLOW FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS. HAVE KEPT IFR CEILINGS AT KCDS
FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PREVAILING
-TSRA MENTION AROUND THE 09-14Z TIMEFRAME. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO
DROP TO IFR...ALTHOUGH...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
LIFR. FORECASTING KLBB TO DIP DOWN TO MVFR CRITERIA THIS EVENING
BEFORE IFR SETS IN AROUND 09Z. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
EAST OF KLBB...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD ENSUE BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DWINDLING
RAIN CHANCES AND DAYTIME MIXING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST MODEL ITERATIONS HAVE
CONTINUED THEIR TRENDS OF DIGGING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
THAN EVEN JUST 24 HOURS AGO. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GOOD INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AT MOST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE DEEPEST LIFT
WILL CIRCUMVENT THE REGION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND POINTS EASTWARD. THIS IS ALSO
EVIDENCED BY THE STRONGEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA. BACKING WINDS ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES THIS EVENING
WILL GARNER SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE CAPROCK WILL NOT BE COUPLED
WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL LIFT FROM THIS TROUGH. THEREFORE ANY
PRECIPITATION ON THE CAPROCK WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT. LIFT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GREATER THAN ONE INCH OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND NEAR
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ON THE CAPROCK. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME WILL ALLOW ELEVATED INSTABILITIES TO RISE OVERNIGHT
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. THESE INSTABILITIES
COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40KT MAY CREATE SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THUNDER WILL BE LIKELY IN THIS
ATMOSPHERE...SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN
VERY LOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST DRY AIR CAN PUSH ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT MOST LIKELY SCENARIO HAS THE
PRECIPITATION ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO BUMP WIND SPEEDS
POTENTIALLY UP INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP US DRY AND COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT STRONGER AND TAKING
IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
STRONG THE FRONT WILL BE AS THE ECMWF WOULD FAVOR TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF WHAT THE MODELS HAVE FOR THURSDAY. COOL DOWN COULD
BE MODERATED SOME BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA
AT THE SAME TIME AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO SWING
SURFACE WIND TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM
THINGS UP AND MAY BRING RETURN FLOW/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BACK
TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MODELS CONTINUE
TO TRY AND GENERATE SOME QPF IN THE LATTER PERIODS BUT KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  66  38  53  26 /  10  10   0  10  10
TULIA         40  66  40  56  30 /  20  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     41  66  42  58  31 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     41  65  43  60  31 /  30  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       44  66  44  61  32 /  30  30  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   43  65  42  63  31 /  30  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    44  66  43  63  31 /  30  30  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     46  65  45  63  37 /  60  60  10  10  10
SPUR          46  67  48  65  37 /  60  60  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     50  67  49  67  39 /  80  80  20   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
845
FXUS64 KLUB 212122
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
322 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST MODEL ITERATIONS HAVE
CONTINUED THEIR TRENDS OF DIGGING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
THAN EVEN JUST 24 HOURS AGO. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GOOD INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AT MOST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE DEEPEST LIFT
WILL CIRCUMVENT THE REGION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND POINTS EASTWARD. THIS IS ALSO
EVIDENCED BY THE STRONGEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA. BACKING WINDS ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES THIS EVENING
WILL GARNER SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE CAPROCK WILL NOT BE COUPLED
WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL LIFT FROM THIS TROUGH. THEREFORE ANY
PRECIPITATION ON THE CAPROCK WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT. LIFT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GREATER THAN ONE INCH OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND NEAR
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ON THE CAPROCK. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME WILL ALLOW ELEVATED INSTABILITIES TO RISE OVERNIGHT
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. THESE INSTABILITIES
COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40KT MAY CREATE SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THUNDER WILL BE LIKELY IN THIS
ATMOSPHERE...SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN
VERY LOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST DRY AIR CAN PUSH ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT MOST LIKELY SCENARIO HAS THE
PRECIPITATION ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO BUMP WIND SPEEDS
POTENTIALLY UP INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP US DRY AND COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT STRONGER AND TAKING
IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
STRONG THE FRONT WILL BE AS THE ECMWF WOULD FAVOR TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF WHAT THE MODELS HAVE FOR THURSDAY. COOL DOWN COULD
BE MODERATED SOME BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA
AT THE SAME TIME AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO SWING
SURFACE WIND TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM
THINGS UP AND MAY BRING RETURN FLOW/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BACK
TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MODELS CONTINUE
TO TRY AND GENERATE SOME QPF IN THE LATTER PERIODS BUT KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  66  38  53  26 /  10  10   0  10  10
TULIA         40  66  40  56  30 /  20  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     41  66  42  58  31 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     41  65  43  60  31 /  30  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       44  66  44  61  32 /  30  30  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   43  65  42  63  31 /  30  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    44  66  43  63  31 /  30  30  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     46  65  45  63  37 /  60  60  10  10  10
SPUR          46  67  48  65  37 /  60  60  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     50  67  49  67  39 /  80  80  20   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14
510
FXUS64 KLUB 211750
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW LOWER COLORADO VALLEY AT 18Z WILL MOVE TO JUST WEST OF
THE TEXAS BIG BEND BY 18Z SATURDAY. FLOW WILL BACK WITH APPROACH
OF THIS LOW ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MODEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD KLBB DURING
THE NIGHT...AND KCDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. KLBB
LOOKS LIKE ON BORDERLINE WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER...BETTER CHANCE
TO THE EAST...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A TEMPO OR PROB MENTION. PERHAPS
A HIGHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE THOUGH WHICH WILL NEED
ADDITIONAL ASSESSMENT. RETAINED PREVIOUS TEMPO THUNDER FOR KCDS
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MUST ALSO BE MENTIONED THAT
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK
FOR KCDS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN. BUT THE INITIAL PROBLEM
WILL BE A RISK FOR LIFR CEILINGS BY MID EVENING FOR BOTH SITES...
WHICH HAS BEEN EXPLICITLY MENTIONED. CANNOT RULE OUT GOING DOWN
HARD ON VISIBILITY FROM DENSE FOG AS WELL THOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT AS
HIGH. MENTION OF LIGHT FOG ONLY FOR NOW. STRATUS LAYER CURRENTLY
OVER KCDS APPEARS STARTING NOW TO BE SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST AS A HIGH LEVEL IMPULSE AND THICKER CLOUDS ALOFT
CLEAR AWAY. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT AT KCDS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE RETURNING BY MID-EVENING. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
MID MORNING UPDATE FOR MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO
PERSISTENT FOG IN PARTS OF ROLLING PLAINS. RMCQUEEN

AVIATION...
KCDS HAS GONE DOWN HARD IN THE PAST HALF HOUR AS STRATUS LAYER HAS
MOVED IN. LATEST HRRR AND RAP SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATE GOOD
CHANCE THIS WILL BE PERSISTENT LATE INTO THE MORNING. STRATUS
LAYER SOUTH OF KLBB...MEANTIME...HAS NOT MADE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH
AND WE HAVE AMENDED KLBB TO REMOVE MENTION. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG AND IFR CLOUD DECKS WERE NOTED EAST OF KCDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND SLOWLY NEARING THE TAF SITE. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
ARE PESSIMISTIC IN THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT TO KCDS GIVE A
NORTHWEST WIND HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...CURRENT TRENDS MAY
SEE OTHERWISE. HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED A SCT BELOW 1000 FT AGL DECK
AND MVFR FOG UNTIL LATE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WELL SOUTH OF KLBB
GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST VALIDATES AN INSERTION OF A FEW IFR DECK.
WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
NORTH WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN. INCREASING VFR
DECKS WILL PASS OVERHEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS WHILE AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
-TSRA. ONCE AGAIN...KCDS IS MOST FAVORED FOR STORM CHANCES AND HAVE
INSERTED A TEMPO COMMENCING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS MAKING A RETURN TOMORROW
EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...PASSED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTN/EVENING...THUS RESULTING
IN A NRLY WIND SHIFT WHICH PREVAILED EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
STRATUS AND FOGGY CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS ERN TEXAS THIS
MORNING...AND COULD APPROACH THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS AOA SUNRISE AS
HINTED AT BY MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER IT MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO
AFFECT THE SAID AREA GIVEN PROGGED SFC WINDS BACKING TO THE NW WHICH
IS NOT A FAVORABLE WIND COMPONENT THAT ENCOURAGES THE INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
LOCALES ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS EXPERIENCE FOG AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS BEFORE IT SCOURS OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN A FOG MENTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW THAT IS TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN CALI PER 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FORECAST SOLUTIONS TRACK
THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN BAJA THIS AFN...TO NWRN OLD MEXICO
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE WASHED OUT AND SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S-SE
THUS AIDING IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS
NO WONDER THAT PROGGED PWATS INCREASE TO 0.5 INCH-1.20 INCHES BY
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST PWATS OCCURRING OFF THE CAPROCK. AS THE
SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR TONIGHT...UL SUPPORT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK...AND THE LLJ WILL CRANK UP TO 25-35
KTS ACROSS THE SAID AREA. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH
A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE AND AN INCREASING LLJ WILL RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COMMENCING LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS OFF THE CAPROCK. AS PWATS RISE ABOVE
1.00 INCH...WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR PERIODS OF
MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL. FURTHERMORE...CAN NOT OVERLOOK PROGGED
MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 1.0-1.5 KJ/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AOA 40 KTS AND VEERING WIND PROFILES NOTED FOR AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK...THUS SUGGESTING STORMS HAVING THE CAPABILITY OF
APPROACHING STRONG LEVELS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE APPROACHING UA LOW WILL CAUSE LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND
HENCE SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS...THOUGH STILL NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS /LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S/. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
SATURDAY PER THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. MAJORITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
KEEP AN OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY MORNING AND A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE
AFTN HOURS THERE. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
MODIFICATION TO THE PRECIP RELATED FIELDS.

HEIGHT GRADIENT PROGGED TO TIGHTEN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH AND AHEAD OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THAT WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
SUNDAY...PROGGED 700MB HEIGHTS AND WIND SPEEDS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FAVORING THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND A FRONT
MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT WIND SPEEDS BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS UNDERNEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS A RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST. MODELS SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE PLAINS AND COLD AIR SPILLING INTO MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THAT COLD AIR BACKING INTO THE
AREA BRIEFLY AROUND THURSDAY. THIS IS TRENDING AWAY FROM A MORE
PRONOUNCED COLD AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE AREA PER SOME PREVIOUS
RUNS...MOST NOTABLY THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  38  66  36  54 /   0  10  10   0  10
TULIA         63  41  66  38  57 /   0  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  43  66  39  59 /   0  20  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     64  43  66  40  61 /   0  30  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       65  45  66  41  62 /   0  30  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   67  45  66  43  65 /   0  30  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    65  45  66  42  63 /   0  30  30  10   0
CHILDRESS     60  46  64  43  64 /   0  60  60  10   0
SPUR          64  46  66  43  65 /   0  60  60  10   0
ASPERMONT     64  50  67  47  69 /  10  80  80  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
819
FXUS64 KLUB 211531
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
931 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MID MORNING UPDATE FOR MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO
PERSISTENT FOG IN PARTS OF ROLLING PLAINS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
KCDS HAS GONE DOWN HARD IN THE PAST HALF HOUR AS STRATUS LAYER HAS
MOVED IN. LATEST HRRR AND RAP SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATE GOOD
CHANCE THIS WILL BE PERSISTENT LATE INTO THE MORNING. STRATUS
LAYER SOUTH OF KLBB...MEANTIME...HAS NOT MADE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH
AND WE HAVE AMENDED KLBB TO REMOVE MENTION. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG AND IFR CLOUD DECKS WERE NOTED EAST OF KCDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND SLOWLY NEARING THE TAF SITE. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
ARE PESSIMISTIC IN THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT TO KCDS GIVE A
NORTHWEST WIND HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...CURRENT TRENDS MAY
SEE OTHERWISE. HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED A SCT BELOW 1000 FT AGL DECK
AND MVFR FOG UNTIL LATE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WELL SOUTH OF KLBB
GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST VALIDATES AN INSERTION OF A FEW IFR DECK.
WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
NORTH WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN. INCREASING VFR
DECKS WILL PASS OVERHEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS WHILE AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
-TSRA. ONCE AGAIN...KCDS IS MOST FAVORED FOR STORM CHANCES AND HAVE
INSERTED A TEMPO COMMENCING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS MAKING A RETURN TOMORROW
EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...PASSED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTN/EVENING...THUS RESULTING
IN A NRLY WIND SHIFT WHICH PREVAILED EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
STRATUS AND FOGGY CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS ERN TEXAS THIS
MORNING...AND COULD APPROACH THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS AOA SUNRISE AS
HINTED AT BY MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER IT MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO
AFFECT THE SAID AREA GIVEN PROGGED SFC WINDS BACKING TO THE NW WHICH
IS NOT A FAVORABLE WIND COMPONENT THAT ENCOURAGES THE INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
LOCALES ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS EXPERIENCE FOG AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS BEFORE IT SCOURS OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN A FOG MENTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW THAT IS TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN CALI PER 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FORECAST SOLUTIONS TRACK
THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN BAJA THIS AFN...TO NWRN OLD MEXICO
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE WASHED OUT AND SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S-SE
THUS AIDING IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS
NO WONDER THAT PROGGED PWATS INCREASE TO 0.5 INCH-1.20 INCHES BY
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST PWATS OCCURRING OFF THE CAPROCK. AS THE
SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR TONIGHT...UL SUPPORT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK...AND THE LLJ WILL CRANK UP TO 25-35
KTS ACROSS THE SAID AREA. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH
A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE AND AN INCREASING LLJ WILL RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COMMENCING LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS OFF THE CAPROCK. AS PWATS RISE ABOVE
1.00 INCH...WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR PERIODS OF
MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL. FURTHERMORE...CAN NOT OVERLOOK PROGGED
MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 1.0-1.5 KJ/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AOA 40 KTS AND VEERING WIND PROFILES NOTED FOR AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK...THUS SUGGESTING STORMS HAVING THE CAPABILITY OF
APPROACHING STRONG LEVELS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE APPROACHING UA LOW WILL CAUSE LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND
HENCE SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS...THOUGH STILL NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS /LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S/. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
SATURDAY PER THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. MAJORITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
KEEP AN OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY MORNING AND A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE
AFTN HOURS THERE. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
MODIFICATION TO THE PRECIP RELATED FIELDS.

HEIGHT GRADIENT PROGGED TO TIGHTEN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH AND AHEAD OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THAT WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
SUNDAY...PROGGED 700MB HEIGHTS AND WIND SPEEDS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FAVORING THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND A FRONT
MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT WIND SPEEDS BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS UNDERNEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS A RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST. MODELS SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE PLAINS AND COLD AIR SPILLING INTO MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THAT COLD AIR BACKING INTO THE
AREA BRIEFLY AROUND THURSDAY. THIS IS TRENDING AWAY FROM A MORE
PRONOUNCED COLD AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE AREA PER SOME PREVIOUS
RUNS...MOST NOTABLY THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  38  66  36  54 /   0  10  10   0  10
TULIA         63  41  66  38  57 /   0  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  43  66  39  59 /   0  20  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     64  43  66  40  61 /   0  30  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       65  45  66  41  62 /   0  30  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   67  45  66  43  65 /   0  30  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    65  45  66  42  63 /   0  30  30  10   0
CHILDRESS     60  46  64  43  64 /   0  60  60  10   0
SPUR          64  46  66  43  65 /   0  60  60  10   0
ASPERMONT     64  50  67  47  69 /  10  80  80  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99/05
382
FXUS64 KLUB 211125
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
525 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR FOG AND IFR CLOUD DECKS WERE NOTED EAST OF KCDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND SLOWLY NEARING THE TAF SITE. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
ARE PESSIMISTIC IN THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT TO KCDS GIVE A
NORTHWEST WIND HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...CURRENT TRENDS MAY
SEE OTHERWISE. HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED A SCT BELOW 1000 FT AGL DECK
AND MVFR FOG UNTIL LATE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WELL SOUTH OF KLBB
GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST VALIDATES AN INSERTION OF A FEW IFR DECK.
WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
NORTH WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN. INCREASING VFR
DECKS WILL PASS OVERHEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS WHILE AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
-TSRA. ONCE AGAIN...KCDS IS MOST FAVORED FOR STORM CHANCES AND HAVE
INSERTED A TEMPO COMMENCING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS MAKING A RETURN TOMORROW
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...PASSED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTN/EVENING...THUS RESULTING
IN A NRLY WIND SHIFT WHICH PREVAILED EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
STRATUS AND FOGGY CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS ERN TEXAS THIS
MORNING...AND COULD APPROACH THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS AOA SUNRISE AS
HINTED AT BY MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER IT MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO
AFFECT THE SAID AREA GIVEN PROGGED SFC WINDS BACKING TO THE NW WHICH
IS NOT A FAVORABLE WIND COMPONENT THAT ENCOURAGES THE INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
LOCALES ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS EXPERIENCE FOG AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS BEFORE IT SCOURS OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN A FOG MENTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW THAT IS TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN CALI PER 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FORECAST SOLUTIONS TRACK
THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN BAJA THIS AFN...TO NWRN OLD MEXICO
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE WASHED OUT AND SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S-SE
THUS AIDING IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS
NO WONDER THAT PROGGED PWATS INCREASE TO 0.5 INCH-1.20 INCHES BY
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST PWATS OCCURRING OFF THE CAPROCK. AS THE
SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR TONIGHT...UL SUPPORT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK...AND THE LLJ WILL CRANK UP TO 25-35
KTS ACROSS THE SAID AREA. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH
A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE AND AN INCREASING LLJ WILL RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COMMENCING LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS OFF THE CAPROCK. AS PWATS RISE ABOVE
1.00 INCH...WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR PERIODS OF
MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL. FURTHERMORE...CAN NOT OVERLOOK PROGGED
MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 1.0-1.5 KJ/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AOA 40 KTS AND VEERING WIND PROFILES NOTED FOR AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK...THUS SUGGESTING STORMS HAVING THE CAPABILITY OF
APPROACHING STRONG LEVELS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE APPROACHING UA LOW WILL CAUSE LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND
HENCE SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS...THOUGH STILL NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS /LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S/. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
SATURDAY PER THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. MAJORITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
KEEP AN OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY MORNING AND A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE
AFTN HOURS THERE. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
MODIFICATION TO THE PRECIP RELATED FIELDS.

HEIGHT GRADIENT PROGGED TO TIGHTEN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH AND AHEAD OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THAT WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
SUNDAY...PROGGED 700MB HEIGHTS AND WIND SPEEDS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING AND POSSBILY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FAVORING THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND A FRONT
MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT WIND SPEEDS BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS UNDERNEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS A RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST. MODELS SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE PLAINS AND COLD AIR SPILLING INTO MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THAT COLD AIR BACKING INTO THE
AREA BRIEFLY AROUND THURSDAY. THIS IS TRENDING AWAY FROM A MORE
PRONOUNCED COLD AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE AREA PER SOME PREVIOUS
RUNS...MOST NOTABLY THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  38  66  36  54 /   0  10  10   0  10
TULIA         63  41  66  38  57 /   0  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  43  66  39  59 /   0  20  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     64  43  66  40  61 /   0  30  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       65  45  66  41  62 /   0  30  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   67  45  66  43  65 /   0  30  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    65  45  66  42  63 /   0  30  30  10   0
CHILDRESS     60  46  64  43  64 /   0  60  60  10   0
SPUR          64  46  66  43  65 /   0  60  60  10   0
ASPERMONT     64  50  67  47  69 /  10  80  80  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
009
FXUS64 KLUB 211120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
520 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR FOG AND IFR CLOUD DECKS WERE NOTED EAST OF KCDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND SLOWLY NEARING THE TAF SITE. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
ARE PESSIMISTIC IN THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT TO KCDS GIVE A
NORTHWEST WIND HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...CURRENT TRENDS
MAY SEE OTHERWISE. HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED A BKN IFR DECK AND MVFR
FOG UNTIL LATE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WELL SOUTH OF KLBB GRADUALLY
MOVING NORTHEAST VALIDATES AN INSERTION OF A FEW IFR DECK. WILL OF
COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE NORTH
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN. INCREASING VFR DECKS
WILL PASS OVERHEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS WHILE AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF -TSRA. ONCE
AGAIN...KCDS IS MOST FAVORED FOR STORM CHANCES AND HAVE INSERTED A
TEMPO COMMENCING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. COMPUTER
MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS MAKING A RETURN TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...PASSED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTN/EVENING...THUS RESULTING
IN A NRLY WIND SHIFT WHICH PREVAILED EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
STRATUS AND FOGGY CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS ERN TEXAS THIS
MORNING...AND COULD APPROACH THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS AOA SUNRISE AS
HINTED AT BY MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER IT MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO
AFFECT THE SAID AREA GIVEN PROGGED SFC WINDS BACKING TO THE NW WHICH
IS NOT A FAVORABLE WIND COMPONENT THAT ENCOURAGES THE INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
LOCALES ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS EXPERIENCE FOG AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS BEFORE IT SCOURS OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN A FOG MENTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW THAT IS TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN CALI PER 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FORECAST SOLUTIONS TRACK
THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN BAJA THIS AFN...TO NWRN OLD MEXICO
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE WASHED OUT AND SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S-SE
THUS AIDING IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS
NO WONDER THAT PROGGED PWATS INCREASE TO 0.5 INCH-1.20 INCHES BY
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST PWATS OCCURRING OFF THE CAPROCK. AS THE
SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR TONIGHT...UL SUPPORT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK...AND THE LLJ WILL CRANK UP TO 25-35
KTS ACROSS THE SAID AREA. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH
A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE AND AN INCREASING LLJ WILL RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COMMENCING LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS OFF THE CAPROCK. AS PWATS RISE ABOVE
1.00 INCH...WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR PERIODS OF
MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL. FURTHERMORE...CAN NOT OVERLOOK PROGGED
MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 1.0-1.5 KJ/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AOA 40 KTS AND VEERING WIND PROFILES NOTED FOR AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK...THUS SUGGESTING STORMS HAVING THE CAPABILITY OF
APPROACHING STRONG LEVELS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE APPROACHING UA LOW WILL CAUSE LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND
HENCE SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS...THOUGH STILL NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS /LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S/. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
SATURDAY PER THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. MAJORITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
KEEP AN OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY MORNING AND A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE
AFTN HOURS THERE. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
MODIFICATION TO THE PRECIP RELATED FIELDS.

HEIGHT GRADIENT PROGGED TO TIGHTEN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH AND AHEAD OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THAT WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
SUNDAY...PROGGED 700MB HEIGHTS AND WIND SPEEDS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING AND POSSBILY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FAVORING THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND A FRONT
MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT WIND SPEEDS BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS UNDERNEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS A RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST. MODELS SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE PLAINS AND COLD AIR SPILLING INTO MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THAT COLD AIR BACKING INTO THE
AREA BRIEFLY AROUND THURSDAY. THIS IS TRENDING AWAY FROM A MORE
PRONOUNCED COLD AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE AREA PER SOME PREVIOUS
RUNS...MOST NOTABLY THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  38  66  36  54 /   0  10  10   0  10
TULIA         63  41  66  38  57 /   0  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  43  66  39  59 /   0  20  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     64  43  66  40  61 /   0  30  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       65  45  66  41  62 /   0  30  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   67  45  66  43  65 /   0  30  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    65  45  66  42  63 /   0  30  30  10   0
CHILDRESS     60  46  64  43  64 /   0  60  60  10   0
SPUR          64  46  66  43  65 /   0  60  60  10   0
ASPERMONT     64  50  67  47  69 /  10  80  80  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
236
FXUS64 KLUB 210845
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
245 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...PASSED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTN/EVENING...THUS RESULTING
IN A NRLY WIND SHIFT WHICH PREVAILED EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
STRATUS AND FOGGY CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS ERN TEXAS THIS
MORNING...AND COULD APPROACH THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS AOA SUNRISE AS
HINTED AT BY MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER IT MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO
AFFECT THE SAID AREA GIVEN PROGGED SFC WINDS BACKING TO THE NW WHICH
IS NOT A FAVORABLE WIND COMPONENT THAT ENCOURAGES THE INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
LOCALES ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS EXPERIENCE FOG AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS BEFORE IT SCOURS OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN A FOG MENTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW THAT IS TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN CALI PER 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FORECAST SOLUTIONS TRACK
THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN BAJA THIS AFN...TO NWRN OLD MEXICO
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE WASHED OUT AND SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S-SE
THUS AIDING IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS
NO WONDER THAT PROGGED PWATS INCREASE TO 0.5 INCH-1.20 INCHES BY
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST PWATS OCCURRING OFF THE CAPROCK. AS THE
SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR TONIGHT...UL SUPPORT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK...AND THE LLJ WILL CRANK UP TO 25-35
KTS ACROSS THE SAID AREA. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH
A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE AND AN INCREASING LLJ WILL RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COMMENCING LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS OFF THE CAPROCK. AS PWATS RISE ABOVE
1.00 INCH...WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR PERIODS OF
MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL. FURTHERMORE...CAN NOT OVERLOOK PROGGED
MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 1.0-1.5 KJ/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AOA 40 KTS AND VEERING WIND PROFILES NOTED FOR AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK...THUS SUGGESTING STORMS HAVING THE CAPABILITY OF
APPROACHING STRONG LEVELS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE APPROACHING UA LOW WILL CAUSE LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND
HENCE SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS...THOUGH STILL NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS /LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S/. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
SATURDAY PER THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. MAJORITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
KEEP AN OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY MORNING AND A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE
AFTN HOURS THERE. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
MODIFICATION TO THE PRECIP RELATED FIELDS.

HEIGHT GRADIENT PROGGED TO TIGHTEN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH AND AHEAD OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THAT WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
SUNDAY...PROGGED 700MB HEIGHTS AND WIND SPEEDS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING AND POSSBILY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FAVORING THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND A FRONT
MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT WIND SPEEDS BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS UNDERNEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS A RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST. MODELS SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE PLAINS AND COLD AIR SPILLING INTO MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THAT COLD AIR BACKING INTO THE
AREA BRIEFLY AROUND THURSDAY. THIS IS TRENDING AWAY FROM A MORE
PRONOUNCED COLD AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE AREA PER SOME PREVIOUS
RUNS...MOST NOTABLY THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  38  66  36  54 /   0  10  10   0  10
TULIA         63  41  66  38  57 /   0  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  43  66  39  59 /   0  20  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     64  43  66  40  61 /   0  30  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       65  45  66  41  62 /   0  30  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   67  45  66  43  65 /   0  30  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    65  45  66  42  63 /   0  30  30  10   0
CHILDRESS     60  46  64  43  64 /   0  60  60  10   0
SPUR          64  46  66  43  65 /   0  60  60  10   0
ASPERMONT     64  50  67  47  69 /  10  80  80  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07
165
FXUS64 KLUB 210541
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN EAST OF BOTH KLBB AND KCDS...BUT EXPECT
SOME PATCHY FOG AND ASSOCIATED LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP NEAR KCDS BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEARER LONGER TONIGHT AS
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SAVING GRACE TO MUCH
FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE WINDS BACKING NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AS
OPPOSED TO REMAINING EASTERLY WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG
FORMATION. NONETHELESS...A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
LOOKS VERY POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AT KCDS WITH CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO VFR CRITERIA BY LATE MORNING AS MIXING COMMENCES.
KLBB SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF ANY MENTIONABLE FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR NOW. COULD SEE SOME
DEGRADATION FOR BOTH SITES NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD COME
FRIDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES AFTER 00Z SATURDAY
AS A RESPECTABLE LOW CUTS OFF ACROSS SRN AZ/NRN SONORA. THIS WILL
BE COVERED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR CWFA THIS EVENING BEFORE WASHING OUT
OVERNIGHT. THUS...WIND DIRECTION...WHILE QUITE LIGHT BY WEST TEXAS
STANDARDS...WILL BE VARIABLE AND HARD TO NAIL DOWN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION THOUGH THE TENDENCY WILL BE FOR WINDS TO REMAIN NORTHERLY
IN THE NE AND SRLY IN THE SW. MUCH OF THE EVENING SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL INVADE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AT LEAST FOR PART OF THE
NIGHT IN THE WEST. OFF ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD HOLD OFF SEVERAL MORE HOURS. AS A
RESULT...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT
BEFORE CLEARING OUT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE CONTINUING THEIR TREND OF A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHWARD
TROUGH FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE POSITIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH WILL
PERSIST FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME WHICH WILL NOT BODE WELL FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THIS
WILL PLACE THE PRECIPITATION EVENT MORE TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING
THAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LIFT WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR OVER
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ON THE CAPROCK WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BUT STILL A GOOD INCREASE IN WINDS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MUCH MORE VEERED
ON THE CAPROCK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MODELS SHOW VALUES OVER ONE INCH OFF THE
CAPROCK WITH VALUES NEARING THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AROUND KLBB.
THIS MAY LEND TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT THAN A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. GOOD SHEAR COMBINING WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG MAY PROMOTE SOME STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT
BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.

A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING THIS TROUGHS
PASSAGE COMPLETE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. LARGER INCONSISTENCIES
ENTER THE FORECAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE ARCTIC AIR
DUMP AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN MUCH BETTER RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE GFS IN SHOWING THIS COLD AIR DUMP ON
THURSDAY ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE STILL DEPICTING A HIGH
SPREAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  25  62  36  64 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         60  28  61  39  65 /   0   0   0  20  20
PLAINVIEW     62  29  61  41  65 /   0   0   0  20  20
LEVELLAND     65  31  65  41  64 /   0   0   0  30  20
LUBBOCK       65  32  64  43  65 /   0   0   0  40  20
DENVER CITY   67  34  67  43  64 /   0   0   0  40  10
BROWNFIELD    66  33  66  43  65 /   0   0   0  40  20
CHILDRESS     62  36  61  44  61 /   0   0  10  60  60
SPUR          66  33  66  45  64 /   0   0   0  60  50
ASPERMONT     68  39  67  48  64 /   0   0   0  80  80

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
157
FXUS64 KLUB 202349
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
549 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT NEAR KCDS WILL
DECREASE VFR CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS. UPPER CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE MAY MAKE FOR A SLOW EROSION OF THIS
FOG...BUT SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MORNING OR SO. KLBB
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY STAYING MAINLY NORTH OF THE TERMINAL AND WEAKENING WITH
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC BUT LIGHT
BELOW 10 KNOTS...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF KLBB AND KCDS...AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES AFTER 00Z SATURDAY
AS A RESPECTABLE LOW CUTS OFF ACROSS SRN AZ/NRN SONORA. THIS WILL
BE COVERED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR CWFA THIS EVENING BEFORE WASHING OUT
OVERNIGHT. THUS...WIND DIRECTION...WHILE QUITE LIGHT BY WEST TEXAS
STANDARDS...WILL BE VARIABLE AND HARD TO NAIL DOWN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION THOUGH THE TENDENCY WILL BE FOR WINDS TO REMAIN NORTHERLY
IN THE NE AND SRLY IN THE SW. MUCH OF THE EVENING SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL INVADE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AT LEAST FOR PART OF THE
NIGHT IN THE WEST. OFF ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD HOLD OFF SEVERAL MORE HOURS. AS A
RESULT...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT
BEFORE CLEARING OUT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE CONTINUING THEIR TREND OF A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHWARD
TROUGH FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE POSITIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH WILL
PERSIST FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME WHICH WILL NOT BODE WELL FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THIS
WILL PLACE THE PRECIPITATION EVENT MORE TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING
THAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LIFT WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR OVER
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ON THE CAPROCK WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BUT STILL A GOOD INCREASE IN WINDS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MUCH MORE VEERED
ON THE CAPROCK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MODELS SHOW VALUES OVER ONE INCH OFF THE
CAPROCK WITH VALUES NEARING THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AROUND KLBB.
THIS MAY LEND TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT THAN A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. GOOD SHEAR COMBINING WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG MAY PROMOTE SOME STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT
BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.

A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING THIS TROUGHS
PASSAGE COMPLETE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. LARGER INCONSISTENCIES
ENTER THE FORECAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE ARCTIC AIR
DUMP AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN MUCH BETTER RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE GFS IN SHOWING THIS COLD AIR DUMP ON
THURSDAY ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE STILL DEPICTING A HIGH
SPREAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        25  62  36  64  35 /   0   0  10  10   0
TULIA         28  61  39  65  37 /   0   0  20  20   0
PLAINVIEW     29  61  41  65  38 /   0   0  20  20   0
LEVELLAND     31  65  41  64  40 /   0   0  30  20   0
LUBBOCK       32  64  43  65  40 /   0   0  40  20   0
DENVER CITY   34  67  43  64  41 /   0   0  40  10   0
BROWNFIELD    33  66  43  65  41 /   0   0  40  20   0
CHILDRESS     36  61  44  61  41 /   0  10  60  60  10
SPUR          33  66  45  64  41 /   0   0  60  50  10
ASPERMONT     39  67  48  64  43 /   0   0  80  80  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
508
FXUS64 KLUB 202055
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
255 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES AFTER 00Z SATURDAY
AS A RESPECTABLE LOW CUTS OFF ACROSS SRN AZ/NRN SONORA. THIS WILL
BE COVERED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR CWFA THIS EVENING BEFORE WASHING OUT
OVERNIGHT. THUS...WIND DIRECTION...WHILE QUITE LIGHT BY WEST TEXAS
STANDARDS...WILL BE VARIABLE AND HARD TO NAIL DOWN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION THOUGH THE TENDENCY WILL BE FOR WINDS TO REMAIN NORTHERLY
IN THE NE AND SRLY IN THE SW. MUCH OF THE EVENING SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL INVADE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AT LEAST FOR PART OF THE
NIGHT IN THE WEST. OFF ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD HOLD OFF SEVERAL MORE HOURS. AS A
RESULT...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT
BEFORE CLEARING OUT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE CONTINUING THEIR TREND OF A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHWARD
TROUGH FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE POSITIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH WILL
PERSIST FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME WHICH WILL NOT BODE WELL FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THIS
WILL PLACE THE PRECIPITATION EVENT MORE TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING
THAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LIFT WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR OVER
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ON THE CAPROCK WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BUT STILL A GOOD INCREASE IN WINDS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MUCH MORE VEERED
ON THE CAPROCK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MODELS SHOW VALUES OVER ONE INCH OFF THE
CAPROCK WITH VALUES NEARING THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AROUND KLBB.
THIS MAY LEND TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT THAN A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. GOOD SHEAR COMBINING WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG MAY PROMOTE SOME STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT
BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.

A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING THIS TROUGHS
PASSAGE COMPLETE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. LARGER INCONSISTENCIES
ENTER THE FORECAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE ARCTIC AIR
DUMP AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN MUCH BETTER RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE GFS IN SHOWING THIS COLD AIR DUMP ON
THURSDAY ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE STILL DEPICTING A HIGH
SPREAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        25  62  36  64  35 /   0   0  10  10   0
TULIA         28  61  39  65  37 /   0   0  20  20   0
PLAINVIEW     29  61  41  65  38 /   0   0  20  20   0
LEVELLAND     31  65  41  64  40 /   0   0  30  20   0
LUBBOCK       32  64  43  65  40 /   0   0  40  20   0
DENVER CITY   34  67  43  64  41 /   0   0  40  10   0
BROWNFIELD    33  66  43  65  41 /   0   0  40  20   0
CHILDRESS     36  61  44  61  41 /   0  10  60  60  10
SPUR          33  66  45  64  41 /   0   0  60  50  10
ASPERMONT     39  67  48  64  43 /   0   0  80  80  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/01
380
FXUS64 KLUB 201717
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1117 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
WEAK WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING THE KCDS TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE LOW INVOF KLBB. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT KLBB...KCDS COULD SEE JUST ENOUGH WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE TO TAKE VIS DOWN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS
TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. WITH INCREASING UPPER
CLOUDINESS...ANY BR MAY BE SLOW TO LIFT THOUGH KCDS SHOULD BE VFR
BY MID DAY.


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IN STORE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST LEAVING QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTN. A WEAK SFC LOW WILL MIGRATE VERY SLOWLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. NORTH
WINDS ACROSS THE SERN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT MAY DRAW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SWD WITH POSSIBLITY OF LOW CLOUDS THERE LATE TONIGHT. ONLY
OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS TEMPERATURES. FURTHER INCREASES IN HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES TODAY POINT TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
MAGNITUDE OF THOSE INCREASES SUGGEST ABOUT THREE TO FOUR DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY.

LONG TERM...
OTHER THAN TWEAKS TO POPS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS THE NWD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE FRI AHEAD OF A POTENT TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
OF NRN CALIFORNIA AT 09Z. FAVORABLE MOIST TRAJECTORIES ARE ALREADY
IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE NWRN GOMEX AND THIS SHOULD ONLY EXPAND IN
THE TIME AHEAD AS SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS UNDISTURBED. 00Z MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH EXITING THE
DESERT SW BY 06Z SAT...TRENDING NEUTRAL TILT AS IT REACHES ERN
NM BY 12Z SAT...BEFORE GOING FULL NEGATIVE TILT TO OUR EAST BY
LATE SAT. HEIGHTS FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO RISE A BIT AS THIS WAVE
APPROACHES OUR DOMAIN...SO LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SUFFICIENTLY DEEP
MOISTENING MAY PROVE MORE PROBLEMATIC OVER OUR WRN ZONES. THE
DEEPEST COUPLED ASCENT STILL FAVORS THE ROLLING PLAINS SAT MORNING
UNDERNEATH A STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW WITH A STOUT LLJ TO
BOOT...SO POPS HERE NUDGED UP EVEN HIGHER. IT IS INTERESTING TO
SEE THAT SEVERAL RUNS OF SREF MEAN HAVE MAINTAINED A BROADER
SWATH OF PRECIP MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MOST OF THE INDIVIDUAL OPER
MODELS...SO WE/LL KEEP SOME MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE POPS
DEPARTMENT OUT WEST AND NOT COMPLETELY SELL THEM SHORT A LA THE
NAM. RICH PWATS IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND WPC QPF POINT TO
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THERE...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT CITED
BY SPC APPEARS A BIT CONDITIONAL GIVEN LACKLUSTER SOUNDINGS AND
POOR SUPPORT FROM SLU AND MARS ANALOGS. MODEST ELEVATED CAPE
PROFILES AND STRONG OMEGA COULD AT LEAST GARNER EPISODES OF SMALL
HAIL...BUT OVERALL THIS SETUP APPEARS LOW END FOR SEVERE IN OUR
CWA. WILL PASS THIS ALONG TO THE DAY SHIFT WHO SHOULD HAVE MORE
TIME TO COLLABBORATE WITH SPC FOR THE UPDATED DAY 2 OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE TROUGH IMPLIES A STEADY
EXODUS OF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY/BORDERLINE WINDY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AS A MINOR TROUGH
IN CYCLONIC NW FLOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH THEREBY TIGHTENING THE
GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS MINOR WAVE WILL ALSO
DELIVER A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY WHICH
SHOULD HELP FOCUS STRONGER WLY/PRE-FRONTAL WINDS TO OUR W-SWRN
ZONES BEFORE SWEEPING SOUTH SUN EVENING. THEREAFTER...NWLY FLOW
ALOFT LOOKS TO DEAMPLIFY AND ALLOW MILDER WESTERLY BREEZES TO
RETURN. AT THE TAIL-END OF THIS FORECAST /THANKSGIVING EVE/...AN
UNWELCOME ARCTIC SURGE MAY VERY WELL BLAST SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
MAKING FOR A DOWNRIGHT CHILLY TURKEY DAY. CURRENT SUPERBLEND OF
MAX TEMPS LOOKS TO BE A POOR REPRESENTATION OF THE ENHANCED
WARMING WE OFTEN SEE AHEAD OF THESE STRONG FRONTS. UNSEASONABLY
MILD HIGHS PER THE LATEST ECM MOS AND MEX MOS FIT THE PATTERN FAR
BETTER...BUT SINCE THIS FRONT IS A WEEK OUT WE WON/T SWEAT THE
DETAILS FOR NOW AS ADDITIONAL DPROG/DT COULD EASILY INTRODUCE MORE
THAN A SINGLE FLY TO THE OINTMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  29  64  36  64 /   0   0   0  20  10
TULIA         60  30  64  39  65 /   0   0   0  20  20
PLAINVIEW     62  32  64  41  65 /   0   0   0  30  20
LEVELLAND     65  33  66  41  64 /   0   0   0  30  20
LUBBOCK       65  34  65  43  65 /   0   0   0  40  20
DENVER CITY   67  37  67  43  64 /   0   0   0  30  10
BROWNFIELD    66  35  67  43  65 /   0   0   0  40  20
CHILDRESS     62  36  60  44  61 /   0   0  10  50  50
SPUR          66  35  64  45  64 /   0   0   0  60  40
ASPERMONT     68  39  65  48  64 /   0   0   0  70  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
555
FXUS64 KLUB 201152
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
552 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF KCDS VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SLIP THROUGH THERE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBILITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DRAWN SWD BEHIND IT AND DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS.
CONFIDENCE LOW ATTM FOR SOMETHING THAT LATE IN THE FCST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IN STORE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST LEAVING QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTN. A WEAK SFC LOW WILL MIGRATE VERY SLOWLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. NORTH
WINDS ACROSS THE SERN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT MAY DRAW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SWD WITH POSSIBLITY OF LOW CLOUDS THERE LATE TONIGHT. ONLY
OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS TEMPERATURES. FURTHER INCREASES IN HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES TODAY POINT TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
MAGNITUDE OF THOSE INCREASES SUGGEST ABOUT THREE TO FOUR DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY.

LONG TERM...
OTHER THAN TWEAKS TO POPS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS THE NWD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE FRI AHEAD OF A POTENT TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
OF NRN CALIFORNIA AT 09Z. FAVORABLE MOIST TRAJECTORIES ARE ALREADY
IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE NWRN GOMEX AND THIS SHOULD ONLY EXPAND IN
THE TIME AHEAD AS SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS UNDISTURBED. 00Z MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH EXITING THE
DESERT SW BY 06Z SAT...TRENDING NEUTRAL TILT AS IT REACHES ERN
NM BY 12Z SAT...BEFORE GOING FULL NEGATIVE TILT TO OUR EAST BY
LATE SAT. HEIGHTS FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO RISE A BIT AS THIS WAVE
APPROACHES OUR DOMAIN...SO LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SUFFICIENTLY DEEP
MOISTENING MAY PROVE MORE PROBLEMATIC OVER OUR WRN ZONES. THE
DEEPEST COUPLED ASCENT STILL FAVORS THE ROLLING PLAINS SAT MORNING
UNDERNEATH A STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW WITH A STOUT LLJ TO
BOOT...SO POPS HERE NUDGED UP EVEN HIGHER. IT IS INTERESTING TO
SEE THAT SEVERAL RUNS OF SREF MEAN HAVE MAINTAINED A BROADER
SWATH OF PRECIP MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MOST OF THE INDIVIDUAL OPER
MODELS...SO WE/LL KEEP SOME MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE POPS
DEPARTMENT OUT WEST AND NOT COMPLETELY SELL THEM SHORT A LA THE
NAM. RICH PWATS IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND WPC QPF POINT TO
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THERE...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT CITED
BY SPC APPEARS A BIT CONDITIONAL GIVEN LACKLUSTER SOUNDINGS AND
POOR SUPPORT FROM SLU AND MARS ANALOGS. MODEST ELEVATED CAPE
PROFILES AND STRONG OMEGA COULD AT LEAST GARNER EPISODES OF SMALL
HAIL...BUT OVERALL THIS SETUP APPEARS LOW END FOR SEVERE IN OUR
CWA. WILL PASS THIS ALONG TO THE DAY SHIFT WHO SHOULD HAVE MORE
TIME TO COLLABBORATE WITH SPC FOR THE UPDATED DAY 2 OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE TROUGH IMPLIES A STEADY
EXODUS OF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY/BORDERLINE WINDY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AS A MINOR TROUGH
IN CYCLONIC NW FLOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH THEREBY TIGHTENING THE
GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS MINOR WAVE WILL ALSO
DELIVER A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY WHICH
SHOULD HELP FOCUS STRONGER WLY/PRE-FRONTAL WINDS TO OUR W-SWRN
ZONES BEFORE SWEEPING SOUTH SUN EVENING. THEREAFTER...NWLY FLOW
ALOFT LOOKS TO DEAMPLIFY AND ALLOW MILDER WESTERLY BREEZES TO
RETURN. AT THE TAIL-END OF THIS FORECAST /THANKSGIVING EVE/...AN
UNWELCOME ARCTIC SURGE MAY VERY WELL BLAST SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
MAKING FOR A DOWNRIGHT CHILLY TURKEY DAY. CURRENT SUPERBLEND OF
MAX TEMPS LOOKS TO BE A POOR REPRESENTATION OF THE ENHANCED
WARMING WE OFTEN SEE AHEAD OF THESE STRONG FRONTS. UNSEASONABLY
MILD HIGHS PER THE LATEST ECM MOS AND MEX MOS FIT THE PATTERN FAR
BETTER...BUT SINCE THIS FRONT IS A WEEK OUT WE WON/T SWEAT THE
DETAILS FOR NOW AS ADDITIONAL DPROG/DT COULD EASILY INTRODUCE MORE
THAN A SINGLE FLY TO THE OINTMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  29  64  36  64 /   0   0   0  20  10
TULIA         60  30  64  39  65 /   0   0   0  20  20
PLAINVIEW     62  32  64  41  65 /   0   0   0  30  20
LEVELLAND     65  33  66  41  64 /   0   0   0  30  20
LUBBOCK       65  34  65  43  65 /   0   0   0  40  20
DENVER CITY   67  37  67  43  64 /   0   0   0  30  10
BROWNFIELD    66  35  67  43  65 /   0   0   0  40  20
CHILDRESS     62  36  60  44  61 /   0   0  10  50  50
SPUR          66  35  64  45  64 /   0   0   0  60  40
ASPERMONT     68  39  65  48  64 /   0   0   0  70  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93/07
271
FXUS64 KLUB 200939
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
339 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IN STORE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST LEAVING QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTN. A WEAK SFC LOW WILL MIGRATE VERY SLOWLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. NORTH
WINDS ACROSS THE SERN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT MAY DRAW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SWD WITH POSSIBLITY OF LOW CLOUDS THERE LATE TONIGHT. ONLY
OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS TEMPERATURES. FURTHER INCREASES IN HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES TODAY POINT TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
MAGNITUDE OF THOSE INCREASES SUGGEST ABOUT THREE TO FOUR DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
OTHER THAN TWEAKS TO POPS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS THE NWD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE FRI AHEAD OF A POTENT TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
OF NRN CALIFORNIA AT 09Z. FAVORABLE MOIST TRAJECTORIES ARE ALREADY
IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE NWRN GOMEX AND THIS SHOULD ONLY EXPAND IN
THE TIME AHEAD AS SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS UNDISTURBED. 00Z MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH EXITING THE
DESERT SW BY 06Z SAT...TRENDING NEUTRAL TILT AS IT REACHES ERN
NM BY 12Z SAT...BEFORE GOING FULL NEGATIVE TILT TO OUR EAST BY
LATE SAT. HEIGHTS FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO RISE A BIT AS THIS WAVE
APPROACHES OUR DOMAIN...SO LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SUFFICIENTLY DEEP
MOISTENING MAY PROVE MORE PROBLEMATIC OVER OUR WRN ZONES. THE
DEEPEST COUPLED ASCENT STILL FAVORS THE ROLLING PLAINS SAT MORNING
UNDERNEATH A STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW WITH A STOUT LLJ TO
BOOT...SO POPS HERE NUDGED UP EVEN HIGHER. IT IS INTERESTING TO
SEE THAT SEVERAL RUNS OF SREF MEAN HAVE MAINTAINED A BROADER
SWATH OF PRECIP MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MOST OF THE INDIVIDUAL OPER
MODELS...SO WE/LL KEEP SOME MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE POPS
DEPARTMENT OUT WEST AND NOT COMPLETELY SELL THEM SHORT A LA THE
NAM. RICH PWATS IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND WPC QPF POINT TO
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THERE...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT CITED
BY SPC APPEARS A BIT CONDITIONAL GIVEN LACKLUSTER SOUNDINGS AND
POOR SUPPORT FROM SLU AND MARS ANALOGS. MODEST ELEVATED CAPE
PROFILES AND STRONG OMEGA COULD AT LEAST GARNER EPISODES OF SMALL
HAIL...BUT OVERALL THIS SETUP APPEARS LOW END FOR SEVERE IN OUR
CWA. WILL PASS THIS ALONG TO THE DAY SHIFT WHO SHOULD HAVE MORE
TIME TO COLLABBORATE WITH SPC FOR THE UPDATED DAY 2 OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE TROUGH IMPLIES A STEADY
EXODUS OF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY/BORDERLINE WINDY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AS A MINOR TROUGH
IN CYCLONIC NW FLOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH THEREBY TIGHTENING THE
GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS MINOR WAVE WILL ALSO
DELIVER A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY WHICH
SHOULD HELP FOCUS STRONGER WLY/PRE-FRONTAL WINDS TO OUR W-SWRN
ZONES BEFORE SWEEPING SOUTH SUN EVENING. THEREAFTER...NWLY FLOW
ALOFT LOOKS TO DEAMPLIFY AND ALLOW MILDER WESTERLY BREEZES TO
RETURN. AT THE TAIL-END OF THIS FORECAST /THANKSGIVING EVE/...AN
UNWELCOME ARCTIC SURGE MAY VERY WELL BLAST SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
MAKING FOR A DOWNRIGHT CHILLY TURKEY DAY. CURRENT SUPERBLEND OF
MAX TEMPS LOOKS TO BE A POOR REPRESENTATION OF THE ENHANCED
WARMING WE OFTEN SEE AHEAD OF THESE STRONG FRONTS. UNSEASONABLY
MILD HIGHS PER THE LATEST ECM MOS AND MEX MOS FIT THE PATTERN FAR
BETTER...BUT SINCE THIS FRONT IS A WEEK OUT WE WON/T SWEAT THE
DETAILS FOR NOW AS ADDITIONAL DPROG/DT COULD EASILY INTRODUCE MORE
THAN A SINGLE FLY TO THE OINTMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  29  64  36  64 /   0   0   0  20  10
TULIA         60  30  64  39  65 /   0   0   0  20  20
PLAINVIEW     62  32  64  41  65 /   0   0   0  30  20
LEVELLAND     65  33  66  41  64 /   0   0   0  30  20
LUBBOCK       65  34  65  43  65 /   0   0   0  40  20
DENVER CITY   67  37  67  43  64 /   0   0   0  30  10
BROWNFIELD    66  35  67  43  65 /   0   0   0  40  20
CHILDRESS     62  36  60  44  61 /   0   0  10  50  50
SPUR          66  35  64  45  64 /   0   0   0  60  40
ASPERMONT     68  39  65  48  64 /   0   0   0  70  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93
874
FXUS64 KLUB 200538
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1138 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT
WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS. MAY SEE SOME LOW STRATUS MOVE TOWARD KCDS
NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE BEARING
SEA WILL BECOME SHEARED AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM COMES ASHORE
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREAT BASIN...A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS WILL SCOOT TO WEST CENTRAL TX BY LATE THURSDAY. WHILE
THE POLAR JET WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...A SUBTROPICAL JET
MAX WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE
SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. THAT SAID...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SURFACE LOW
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OUT NEAR HOBBS FOR MUCH OF TOMORROW
KEEPING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN CHECK.

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE TOMORROW WILL DIVE DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN US. MODELS TRENDED TOWARDS A GENERAL SLOWING DOWN OF
THE TROUGH BY A FEW HOURS AS IT IMPACTS WEST TEXAS AT THE END OF
THE WEEK. IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SPREAD OVER ON
SATURDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL
MOSTLY BE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE LOW
LEVEL JET WINDS ALSO ARE MORE VEERED THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
SHIFTING MOST OF THE QPF OUTPUT TO THE EAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS...POPS WERE CUT BACK NEAR THE TEXAS...NEW MEXICO STATE LINE
BUT WILL REMAIN LIKELY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS.

MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALTHOUGH THE NAM SEEMS TO DISAGREE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO GULF MOISTURE
MAKING ITS WAY TO AT LEAST THE ROLLING PLAINS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL GET A SIGNIFICANT BOOST FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SOURCING A PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL PROMOTE STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL. HOWEVER...A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN SEVERE WEATHER. SURFACE CONDITIONS
BECOME CONVOLUTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH MOVING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  27  60  26  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  28  58  28  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  30  60  29  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     57  32  65  30  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       56  32  62  31  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   60  33  66  33  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    59  33  66  31  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     55  31  59  33  58 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          57  34  63  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  35  64  38  64 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
794
FXUS64 KLUB 192332
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
532 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING UPPER
CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE BEARING
SEA WILL BECOME SHEARED AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM COMES ASHORE
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREAT BASIN...A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS WILL SCOOT TO WEST CENTRAL TX BY LATE THURSDAY. WHILE
THE POLAR JET WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...A SUBTROPICAL JET
MAX WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE
SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. THAT SAID...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SURFACE LOW
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OUT NEAR HOBBS FOR MUCH OF TOMORROW
KEEPING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN CHECK.

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE TOMORROW WILL DIVE DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN US. MODELS TRENDED TOWARDS A GENERAL SLOWING DOWN OF
THE TROUGH BY A FEW HOURS AS IT IMPACTS WEST TEXAS AT THE END OF
THE WEEK. IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SPREAD OVER ON
SATURDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL
MOSTLY BE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE LOW
LEVEL JET WINDS ALSO ARE MORE VEERED THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
SHIFTING MOST OF THE QPF OUTPUT TO THE EAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS...POPS WERE CUT BACK NEAR THE TEXAS...NEW MEXICO STATE LINE
BUT WILL REMAIN LIKELY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS.

MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALTHOUGH THE NAM SEEMS TO DISAGREE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO GULF MOISTURE
MAKING ITS WAY TO AT LEAST THE ROLLING PLAINS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL GET A SIGNIFICANT BOOST FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SOURCING A PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL PROMOTE STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL. HOWEVER...A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN SEVERE WEATHER. SURFACE CONDITIONS
BECOME CONVOLUTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH MOVING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  60  26  62  35 /   0   0   0   0  20
TULIA         28  58  28  60  36 /   0   0   0   0  30
PLAINVIEW     30  60  29  62  38 /   0   0   0   0  30
LEVELLAND     32  65  30  63  39 /   0   0   0   0  30
LUBBOCK       32  62  31  64  40 /   0   0   0   0  40
DENVER CITY   33  66  33  65  41 /   0   0   0   0  30
BROWNFIELD    33  66  31  64  41 /   0   0   0   0  40
CHILDRESS     31  59  33  58  42 /   0   0  10  10  40
SPUR          34  63  34  63  42 /   0   0   0   0  50
ASPERMONT     35  64  38  64  46 /   0   0   0   0  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
087
FXUS64 KLUB 192041
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
241 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE BEARING
SEA WILL BECOME SHEARED AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM COMES ASHORE
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREAT BASIN...A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS WILL SCOOT TO WEST CENTRAL TX BY LATE THURSDAY. WHILE
THE POLAR JET WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...A SUBTROPICAL JET
MAX WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE
SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. THAT SAID...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SURFACE LOW
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OUT NEAR HOBBS FOR MUCH OF TOMORROW
KEEPING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN CHECK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE TOMORROW WILL DIVE DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN US. MODELS TRENDED TOWARDS A GENERAL SLOWING DOWN OF
THE TROUGH BY A FEW HOURS AS IT IMPACTS WEST TEXAS AT THE END OF
THE WEEK. IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SPREAD OVER ON
SATURDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL
MOSTLY BE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE LOW
LEVEL JET WINDS ALSO ARE MORE VEERED THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
SHIFTING MOST OF THE QPF OUTPUT TO THE EAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS...POPS WERE CUT BACK NEAR THE TEXAS...NEW MEXICO STATE LINE
BUT WILL REMAIN LIKELY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS.

MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALTHOUGH THE NAM SEEMS TO DISAGREE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO GULF MOISTURE
MAKING ITS WAY TO AT LEAST THE ROLLING PLAINS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL GET A SIGNIFICANT BOOST FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SOURCING A PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL PROMOTE STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL. HOWEVER...A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN SEVERE WEATHER. SURFACE CONDITIONS
BECOME CONVOLUTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH MOVING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  60  26  62  35 /   0   0   0   0  20
TULIA         28  58  28  60  36 /   0   0   0   0  30
PLAINVIEW     30  60  29  62  38 /   0   0   0   0  30
LEVELLAND     32  65  30  63  39 /   0   0   0   0  30
LUBBOCK       32  62  31  64  40 /   0   0   0   0  40
DENVER CITY   33  66  33  65  41 /   0   0   0   0  30
BROWNFIELD    33  66  31  64  41 /   0   0   0   0  40
CHILDRESS     31  59  33  58  42 /   0   0  10  10  40
SPUR          34  63  34  63  42 /   0   0   0   0  50
ASPERMONT     35  64  38  64  46 /   0   0   0   0  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/01
125
FXUS64 KLUB 191704
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1104 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO WIND FIELDS THROUGH 12Z THU.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR CONTINUES ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT EFFECTS WILL BE BRIEF
AS WINDS DECREASE THEN VEER TOWARD SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...MODEST LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
OFFSET SHARP INCREASES IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES THAT RESULT FROM
INCREASED HEIGHTS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD TOWARD
WEST TEXAS. AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON
WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT AS WELL. RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT A
FIVE DEGREE INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPS OVER YESTERDAY. A BIT OF AN
UPTICK IN WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN VEER ALL THE WAY BACK
TOWARD SOUTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT. THAT RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT MAY HELP KEEP TEMPS UP JUST A BIT. THAT IN COMBINATION
WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL LEAD TO TRENDING
OVERNIGHT LOWS TOWARD THE WARMER GFS BASED OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...
ONLY CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE WITH THIS PACKAGE INVOLVED RAMPING UP
POPS 06Z-12Z SAT AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH SPURS DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WEST TX. UNTIL THAT POINT...A
MINOR TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE REGION ON THU SENDING ANOTHER WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. SINCE NEITHER OF
THESE FRONTS WILL TRACK INTO THE GULF...A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW
WILL BE LEFT INTACT WHICH COULD ADVECT SOME LOW CLOUDS NORTHWARD
ATOP THE SHALLOW FRONTAL ZONE BY FRI MORNING OFF THE CAPROCK.

TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING ON FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET
UNTIL A DIGGING TROUGH ARRIVES LATE FRI NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.
ALREADY ON FRI..THE EFFECTS OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE
AREA AS NLY WINDS TURN SELY IN RESPONSE TO ORGANIZING PRESSURE
FALLS TO OUR WEST. MEANWHILE...BACKING OF MID/UPPER WINDS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WILL TAP A PLUME OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE DAY. BY FAR THE MOST IMPRESSIVE SIGNAL BY FRI
EVENING IS A BROAD SELY COMPONENT TO 850MB WINDS PER ALL MODELS
WHICH LATER ACCELERATES AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES UNDER AN
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW. SUBSEQUENT DEEP AND MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEFINITELY FITS OUR RECIPE FOR GOOD RAIN CHANCES
AS BOTH LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE. ON THAT
NOTE...PWATS IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS ARE PROGGED AOA 1 INCH SO
SOME HEAVY RAIN APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. DECENT ELEVATED CAPE COULD
EASILY ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES IN ADDITION TO SUPPORTING SOME
STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EVENTS AS NOTED BY SPC/S DAY 3
OUTLOOK. POPS WERE RAMPED UP TO HIGH CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA TO BETTER REFLECT THIS FAVORABLE
PATTERN...BEFORE DRYING OUT AGGRESSIVELY FROM W-E AFTER 12Z SAT.

BEHIND SATURDAY/S TROUGH...CYCLONIC NW FLOW WILL UNFOLD AND PLACE
THE REGION SQUARELY UNDER A DEEP BAND OF ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLIES.
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECM AND ITS MOS GUIDANCE HAVE TAPERED BACK
WINDS CONSIDERABLY...THE GFS AND MEX REMAIN VERY STOUT WITH A
BLOWING DUST SETUP FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. DID NUDGE WINDS
UP A BIT ON SUN FROM EARLIER...BUT AM KEEPING VALUES WELL SHORT OF
THE HIGH-END WIND ADVISORY MOS NUMBERS FOR OUR NW ZONES. TIMING OF
ANOTHER FRONT BY LATE SUN FROM THE NORTH WILL PROVE CRITICAL IN
DECIDING WHERE THIS CORRIDOR OF STRONGER W-NW WINDS SETS UP...SO
WE/LL WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS BEFORE COMMITTING TO
MARKEDLY STRONGER OR DRASTICALLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS. SIMILAR
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH NEXT WEEK/S TEMPS AS MODELS ARE AT ODDS
OVER THE DEPTH OF A L/W TROUGH EVOLVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION. KEPT COOLER TEMPS IN ORDER FOR NOW VERY MUCH AKIN TO THE
SUPERBLEND WHICH HAS SOME WEIGHTING FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THAT
WERE MUCH COOLER THAN THE LATEST/MILDER NWP LINEUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  26  58  24  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  27  56  26  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  29  59  28  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     57  30  65  28  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       56  31  64  29  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   60  30  66  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    59  31  65  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     55  31  58  32  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          57  30  65  34  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  33  68  38  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99/26
612
FXUS64 KLUB 191110
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
510 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT EFFECTS WILL BE BRIEF
AS WINDS DECREASE THEN VEER TOWARD SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...MODEST LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
OFFSET SHARP INCREASES IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES THAT RESULT FROM
INCREASED HEIGHTS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD TOWARD
WEST TEXAS. AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON
WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT AS WELL. RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT A
FIVE DEGREE INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPS OVER YESTERDAY. A BIT OF AN
UPTICK IN WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN VEER ALL THE WAY BACK
TOWARD SOUTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT. THAT RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT MAY HELP KEEP TEMPS UP JUST A BIT. THAT IN COMBINATION
WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL LEAD TO TRENDING
OVERNIGHT LOWS TOWARD THE WARMER GFS BASED OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...
ONLY CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE WITH THIS PACKAGE INVOLVED RAMPING UP
POPS 06Z-12Z SAT AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH SPURS DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WEST TX. UNTIL THAT POINT...A
MINOR TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE REGION ON THU SENDING ANOTHER WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. SINCE NEITHER OF
THESE FRONTS WILL TRACK INTO THE GULF...A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW
WILL BE LEFT INTACT WHICH COULD ADVECT SOME LOW CLOUDS NORTHWARD
ATOP THE SHALLOW FRONTAL ZONE BY FRI MORNING OFF THE CAPROCK.

TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING ON FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET
UNTIL A DIGGING TROUGH ARRIVES LATE FRI NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.
ALREADY ON FRI..THE EFFECTS OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE
AREA AS NLY WINDS TURN SELY IN RESPONSE TO ORGANIZING PRESSURE
FALLS TO OUR WEST. MEANWHILE...BACKING OF MID/UPPER WINDS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WILL TAP A PLUME OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE DAY. BY FAR THE MOST IMPRESSIVE SIGNAL BY FRI
EVENING IS A BROAD SELY COMPONENT TO 850MB WINDS PER ALL MODELS
WHICH LATER ACCELERATES AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES UNDER AN
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW. SUBSEQUENT DEEP AND MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEFINITELY FITS OUR RECIPE FOR GOOD RAIN CHANCES
AS BOTH LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE. ON THAT
NOTE...PWATS IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS ARE PROGGED AOA 1 INCH SO
SOME HEAVY RAIN APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. DECENT ELEVATED CAPE COULD
EASILY ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES IN ADDITION TO SUPPORTING SOME
STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EVENTS AS NOTED BY SPC/S DAY 3
OUTLOOK. POPS WERE RAMPED UP TO HIGH CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA TO BETTER REFLECT THIS FAVORABLE
PATTERN...BEFORE DRYING OUT AGGRESSIVELY FROM W-E AFTER 12Z SAT.

BEHIND SATURDAY/S TROUGH...CYCLONIC NW FLOW WILL UNFOLD AND PLACE
THE REGION SQUARELY UNDER A DEEP BAND OF ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLIES.
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECM AND ITS MOS GUIDANCE HAVE TAPERED BACK
WINDS CONSIDERABLY...THE GFS AND MEX REMAIN VERY STOUT WITH A
BLOWING DUST SETUP FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. DID NUDGE WINDS
UP A BIT ON SUN FROM EARLIER...BUT AM KEEPING VALUES WELL SHORT OF
THE HIGH-END WIND ADVISORY MOS NUMBERS FOR OUR NW ZONES. TIMING OF
ANOTHER FRONT BY LATE SUN FROM THE NORTH WILL PROVE CRITICAL IN
DECIDING WHERE THIS CORRIDOR OF STRONGER W-NW WINDS SETS UP...SO
WE/LL WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS BEFORE COMMITTING TO
MARKEDLY STRONGER OR DRASTICALLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS. SIMILAR
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH NEXT WEEK/S TEMPS AS MODELS ARE AT ODDS
OVER THE DEPTH OF A L/W TROUGH EVOLVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION. KEPT COOLER TEMPS IN ORDER FOR NOW VERY MUCH AKIN TO THE
SUPERBLEND WHICH HAS SOME WEIGHTING FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THAT
WERE MUCH COOLER THAN THE LATEST/MILDER NWP LINEUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  26  58  24  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  27  56  26  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  29  59  28  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     57  30  65  28  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       56  31  64  29  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   60  30  66  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    59  31  65  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     55  31  58  32  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          57  30  65  34  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  33  68  38  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93/07
110
FXUS64 KLUB 191016
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
416 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...MODEST LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
OFFSET SHARP INCREASES IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES THAT RESULT FROM
INCREASED HEIGHTS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD TOWARD
WEST TEXAS. AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON
WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT AS WELL. RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT A
FIVE DEGREE INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPS OVER YESTERDAY. A BIT OF AN
UPTICK IN WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN VEER ALL THE WAY BACK
TOWARD SOUTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT. THAT RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT MAY HELP KEEP TEMPS UP JUST A BIT. THAT IN COMBINATION
WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL LEAD TO TRENDING
OVERNIGHT LOWS TOWARD THE WARMER GFS BASED OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ONLY CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE WITH THIS PACKAGE INVOLVED RAMPING UP
POPS 06Z-12Z SAT AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH SPURS DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WEST TX. UNTIL THAT POINT...A
MINOR TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE REGION ON THU SENDING ANOTHER WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. SINCE NEITHER OF
THESE FRONTS WILL TRACK INTO THE GULF...A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW
WILL BE LEFT INTACT WHICH COULD ADVECT SOME LOW CLOUDS NORTHWARD
ATOP THE SHALLOW FRONTAL ZONE BY FRI MORNING OFF THE CAPROCK.

TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING ON FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET
UNTIL A DIGGING TROUGH ARRIVES LATE FRI NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.
ALREADY ON FRI..THE EFFECTS OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE
AREA AS NLY WINDS TURN SELY IN RESPONSE TO ORGANIZING PRESSURE
FALLS TO OUR WEST. MEANWHILE...BACKING OF MID/UPPER WINDS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WILL TAP A PLUME OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE DAY. BY FAR THE MOST IMPRESSIVE SIGNAL BY FRI
EVENING IS A BROAD SELY COMPONENT TO 850MB WINDS PER ALL MODELS
WHICH LATER ACCELERATES AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES UNDER AN
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW. SUBSEQUENT DEEP AND MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEFINITELY FITS OUR RECIPE FOR GOOD RAIN CHANCES
AS BOTH LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE. ON THAT
NOTE...PWATS IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS ARE PROGGED AOA 1 INCH SO
SOME HEAVY RAIN APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. DECENT ELEVATED CAPE COULD
EASILY ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES IN ADDITION TO SUPPORTING SOME
STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EVENTS AS NOTED BY SPC/S DAY 3
OUTLOOK. POPS WERE RAMPED UP TO HIGH CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA TO BETTER REFLECT THIS FAVORABLE
PATTERN...BEFORE DRYING OUT AGGRESSIVELY FROM W-E AFTER 12Z SAT.

BEHIND SATURDAY/S TROUGH...CYCLONIC NW FLOW WILL UNFOLD AND PLACE
THE REGION SQUARELY UNDER A DEEP BAND OF ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLIES.
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECM AND ITS MOS GUIDANCE HAVE TAPERED BACK
WINDS CONSIDERABLY...THE GFS AND MEX REMAIN VERY STOUT WITH A
BLOWING DUST SETUP FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. DID NUDGE WINDS
UP A BIT ON SUN FROM EARLIER...BUT AM KEEPING VALUES WELL SHORT OF
THE HIGH-END WIND ADVISORY MOS NUMBERS FOR OUR NW ZONES. TIMING OF
ANOTHER FRONT BY LATE SUN FROM THE NORTH WILL PROVE CRITICAL IN
DECIDING WHERE THIS CORRIDOR OF STRONGER W-NW WINDS SETS UP...SO
WE/LL WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS BEFORE COMMITTING TO
MARKEDLY STRONGER OR DRASTICALLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS. SIMILAR
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH NEXT WEEK/S TEMPS AS MODELS ARE AT ODDS
OVER THE DEPTH OF A L/W TROUGH EVOLVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION. KEPT COOLER TEMPS IN ORDER FOR NOW VERY MUCH AKIN TO THE
SUPERBLEND WHICH HAS SOME WEIGHTING FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THAT
WERE MUCH COOLER THAN THE LATEST/MILDER NWP LINEUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  26  58  24  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  27  56  26  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  29  59  28  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     57  30  65  28  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       56  31  64  29  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   60  30  66  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    59  31  65  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     55  31  58  32  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          57  30  65  34  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  33  68  38  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93
540
FXUS64 KLUB 190530
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE WIND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. S-SW WINDS
WILL TURN TO A NORTHERLY FETCH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ABOVE
15 OR 20K FT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH
SOME FLOW CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO OUR WEST AS SUBTROPICAL JET REGIME
BEGINS TO TAKE FORM. A SUBTLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
REGIME WILL ONLY BE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES. SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. INSOFAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...THE NAM IS GROSSLY OVER-ESTIMATING SURFACE SNOW COVER ACROSS
THE REGION AND HAS A COOL BIAS ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO MAX T
FIELDS.

LONG TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT ITEM OF CONTENTION IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BEFORE
THIS...A SHORT WAVE WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL ONLY HAVE THE EFFECT OF INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW EARLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BUDGE THAT MUCH.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND BECOME POSITIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF LIFT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE LARGEST AMOUNT OF LIFT WILL BE CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTH TEXAS.
BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WEST TEXAS. BACKING SURFACE WINDS
WILL DRAW IN SOME GULF MOISTURE BUT THE TIME FRAME WILL BE SMALL
FOR ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. ANOTHER COLD AIR DUMP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN TO START OUT NEXT WEEK AFTER A WARMER WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  21  52  26  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         47  22  51  26  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     50  23  52  27  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  27  55  30  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       52  27  54  30  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   51  26  58  33  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    51  26  56  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  29  54  30  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          51  28  55  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     54  32  57  32  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
722
FXUS64 KLUB 182337
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
537 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. S-SW WINDS
WILL TURN TO A NORTHERLY FETCH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ABOVE
15 OR 20K FT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH
SOME FLOW CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO OUR WEST AS SUBTROPICAL JET REGIME
BEGINS TO TAKE FORM. A SUBTLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
REGIME WILL ONLY BE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES. SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. INSOFAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...THE NAM IS GROSSLY OVER-ESTIMATING SURFACE SNOW COVER ACROSS
THE REGION AND HAS A COOL BIAS ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO MAX T
FIELDS.

LONG TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT ITEM OF CONTENTION IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BEFORE
THIS...A SHORT WAVE WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL ONLY HAVE THE EFFECT OF INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW EARLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BUDGE THAT MUCH.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND BECOME POSITIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF LIFT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE LARGEST AMOUNT OF LIFT WILL BE CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTH TEXAS.
BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WEST TEXAS. BACKING SURFACE WINDS
WILL DRAW IN SOME GULF MOISTURE BUT THE TIME FRAME WILL BE SMALL
FOR ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. ANOTHER COLD AIR DUMP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN TO START OUT NEXT WEEK AFTER A WARMER WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        21  52  26  60  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         22  51  26  58  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     23  52  27  60  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     27  55  30  65  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       27  54  30  64  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   26  58  33  66  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    26  56  31  65  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     29  54  30  60  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          28  55  31  65  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     32  57  32  67  41 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
817
FXUS64 KLUB 182037
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
237 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH
SOME FLOW CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO OUR WEST AS SUBTROPICAL JET REGIME
BEGINS TO TAKE FORM. A SUBTLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
REGIME WILL ONLY BE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES. SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. INSOFAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...THE NAM IS GROSSLY OVER-ESTIMATING SURFACE SNOW COVER ACROSS
THE REGION AND HAS A COOL BIAS ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO MAX T
FIELDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT ITEM OF CONTENTION IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BEFORE
THIS...A SHORT WAVE WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL ONLY HAVE THE EFFECT OF INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW EARLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BUDGE THAT MUCH.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND BECOME POSITIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF LIFT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE LARGEST AMOUNT OF LIFT WILL BE CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTH TEXAS.
BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WEST TEXAS. BACKING SURFACE WINDS
WILL DRAW IN SOME GULF MOISTURE BUT THE TIME FRAME WILL BE SMALL
FOR ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. ANOTHER COLD AIR DUMP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN TO START OUT NEXT WEEK AFTER A WARMER WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        21  52  26  60  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         22  51  26  58  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     23  52  27  60  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     27  55  30  65  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       27  54  30  64  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   26  58  33  66  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    26  56  31  65  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     29  54  30  60  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          28  55  31  65  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     32  57  32  67  41 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/01
003
FXUS64 KLUB 181732
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1132 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.UPDATED...
CORRECTED PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH A BIT BREEZY THROUGH MID EVENING.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN STORE TODAY.  00Z MODELS DID A POOR JOB
INITIALIZING THE REMNANT SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS POSING
PROBLEMS WITH USING MODEL DATA FOR THE FORECAST.  MODELS FOR SOME
REASON DECIDED TO PUT NO SNOW WHERE THE SNOW BAND COULD BE SEEN ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE WHILE CARRYING 2-3 INCHES IN AREAS WHERE LITTLE TO
NO SNOW WAS REPORTED...SUCH AS LUBBOCK.  UNFORTUNATELY THIS MEANT
THAT ANY BACKGROUND FIELD WAS CONTAMINATED AND SOME OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE WAS ALSO BAD.  DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROF DEVELOPING FROM NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.  THIS WILL HELP SURFACE WIND TO SWING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH SPEEDS 10-15 MPH AND ALSO PROVIDE SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE DAY SO
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSOLATION TO HELP MELT ANY SNOW REMAINING
FROM SUNDAY.

HAD TO TWEAK THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID TO CARRY NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
CAPROCK EXCEPT IN PARMER...CASTRO...SWISHER...AND WESTERN BRISCOE
COUNTIES WHERE SOME SNOW REMAINED ON THE GROUND.  DROPPED TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS DOWN INTO THE MID 40S WHICH MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES
TOO HIGH.  NEXT ISSUE WAS TO BUMP UP TEMPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF PALO DURO CANYON WHERE IT APPEARS NO SNOW
REMAINS ON THE GROUND AND MODELS KEPT TEMPS COOL.  LIKEWISE...HAD TO
DO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINT GRIDS AS MODELS ADDED EXTRA
MOISTURE FROM THE MELTING/SUBLIMATING SNOW INTO THE DRY AIRMASS AT
THE SURFACE.

TONIGHT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS.  HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING
AS WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE.  PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TIGHTEN JUST A TAD AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
KEEP WIND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED A BIT SO WENT A BIT
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.  ALSO MISSING SHOULD BE MOST OF THE SNOW SINCE
MOST OF IT SHOULD HAVE MELTED THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM...
CYCLONIC NWLY FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WILL GRADUALLY WEAR DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLLAPSE OF A L/W RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A SERIES OF MINOR TROUGHS IN WESTERLY
FLOW BY LATER THIS WEEK. UNTIL THEN THE DEPARTING NWLY FLOW REGIME
WILL STILL SEND A FEW WEAK COLD FRONTS CLOSE TO OUR AREA...THE
FIRST ON WED WITH ANOTHER BY THU. RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE
DAMPENED THE LATTER OF THESE FRONTS MARKEDLY WHEREAS THE LOW RES
ECMWF INDICATES A BIT MORE CHARACTER. NOTE: THE LOCAL INGEST OF
THE 00Z HI RES ECMWF FAILED...SO THE FINER DETAILS CONCERNING THIS
FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CHALLENGES WERE UNAVAILABLE.

WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL BACK SWLY AHEAD OF A S/W TROUGH
PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE DESERT SW. THIS WILL TAP A LAYER OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT WHILE ALSO ENCOURAGING A NWD ADVECTION OF
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THE 00Z LOW RES ECMWF
SCALED BACK THE DEPTH OF THIS WAVE COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS...BUT
REMAINS A BIT SHARPER THAN THE GFS. ALTHOUGH DPROG/DT AMONG THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAS YET TO SETTLE DOWN...THE
THEME IS FOR A PROGRESSIVE NEUTRAL TILT TROUGH IMPACTING WEST TX
FROM FRI NIGHT-SAT COMPLETE WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAINLY OFF
THE CAPROCK IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION. KEPT CHANCE POPS
INTACT ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES AS PWATS AROUND 3/4 INCH IN THIS
PATTERN COULD EASILY BE PUT TO WORK WITH THIS TROUGH. NO PRECIP
PHASE CHALLENGES ARE PRESENT THIS GO-AROUND AS SOUNDINGS POINT TO
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...WITH SVR STORMS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE EAST OF
OUR DOMAIN BY SAT AFTN.

FOLLOWING SATURDAY/S TROUGH...STRONGER CYCLONIC NWLY FLOW LOOKS TO
MAKE A RETURN COMPLETE WITH BREEZY/WARM W-NW SFC WINDS FOR SUNDAY
UNTIL A MODIFIED POLAR FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE SUN/EARLY MON WITH
CHILLY TEMPS FOR THE START OF THANKSGIVING WEEK. UNTIL THIS MORE
SUBSTANTIAL FROPA...MAX TEMPS WERE TRENDED UP MOST DAYS TO BETTER
FIT THE VERY MILD ECM AND MEX NUMBERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  23  51  26  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         46  25  53  26  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     49  24  53  26  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     49  25  54  29  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       51  28  53  28  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   50  23  56  30  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    50  26  55  29  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     50  29  54  29  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          50  30  55  30  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     53  32  57  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
734
FXUS64 KLUB 181132 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
532 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY WARMING UNDERNEATH SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. 2 AM READINGS RANGED FROM 35 UP IN DIMMITT TO 45 OUT IN
GUTHRIE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS YESTERDAY/S SNOW
SWATH MELTING AND RETREATING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THERE MAY NOT BE
MUCH SNOW LEFT BY THIS EVENING...OTHER THAN AREAS REMAINING IN
SHADE. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES PROVIDING EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...AND THIS COULD HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING
OUT LIKE LAST NIGHT. STILL...LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S SHOULD
BE THE RULE. ON TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL PICK UP A BIT
MORE AND HELP TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

LONG TERM...
CYCLONIC NWLY FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WILL GRADUALLY WEAR DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLLAPSE OF A L/W RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A SERIES OF MINOR TROUGHS IN WESTERLY
FLOW BY LATER THIS WEEK. UNTIL THEN THE DEPARTING NWLY FLOW REGIME
WILL STILL SEND A FEW WEAK COLD FRONTS CLOSE TO OUR AREA...THE
FIRST ON WED WITH ANOTHER BY THU. RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE
DAMPENED THE LATTER OF THESE FRONTS MARKEDLY WHEREAS THE LOW RES
ECMWF INDICATES A BIT MORE CHARACTER. NOTE: THE LOCAL INGEST OF
THE 00Z HI RES ECMWF FAILED...SO THE FINER DETAILS CONCERNING THIS
FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CHALLENGES WERE UNAVAILABLE.

WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL BACK SWLY AHEAD OF A S/W TROUGH
PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE DESERT SW. THIS WILL TAP A LAYER OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT WHILE ALSO ENCOURAGING A NWD ADVECTION OF
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THE 00Z LOW RES ECMWF
SCALED BACK THE DEPTH OF THIS WAVE COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS...BUT
REMAINS A BIT SHARPER THAN THE GFS. ALTHOUGH DPROG/DT AMONG THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAS YET TO SETTLE DOWN...THE
THEME IS FOR A PROGRESSIVE NEUTRAL TILT TROUGH IMPACTING WEST TX
FROM FRI NIGHT-SAT COMPLETE WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAINLY OFF
THE CAPROCK IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION. KEPT CHANCE POPS
INTACT ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES AS PWATS AROUND 3/4 INCH IN THIS
PATTERN COULD EASILY BE PUT TO WORK WITH THIS TROUGH. NO PRECIP
PHASE CHALLENGES ARE PRESENT THIS GO-AROUND AS SOUNDINGS POINT TO
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...WITH SVR STORMS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE EAST OF
OUR DOMAIN BY SAT AFTN.

FOLLOWING SATURDAY/S TROUGH...STRONGER CYCLONIC NWLY FLOW LOOKS TO
MAKE A RETURN COMPLETE WITH BREEZY/WARM W-NW SFC WINDS FOR SUNDAY
UNTIL A MODIFIED POLAR FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE SUN/EARLY MON WITH
CHILLY TEMPS FOR THE START OF THANKSGIVING WEEK. UNTIL THIS MORE
SUBSTANTIAL FROPA...MAX TEMPS WERE TRENDED UP MOST DAYS TO BETTER
FIT THE VERY MILD ECM AND MEX NUMBERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  23  51  26  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         46  25  53  26  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     49  24  53  26  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     49  25  54  29  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       51  28  53  28  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   50  23  56  30  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    50  26  55  29  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     50  29  54  29  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          50  30  55  30  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     53  32  57  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/14
807
FXUS64 KLUB 180932
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
332 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY WARMING UNDERNEATH SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. 2 AM READINGS RANGED FROM 35 UP IN DIMMITT TO 45 OUT IN
GUTHRIE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS YESTERDAY/S SNOW
SWATH MELTING AND RETREATING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THERE MAY NOT BE
MUCH SNOW LEFT BY THIS EVENING...OTHER THAN AREAS REMAINING IN
SHADE. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES PROVIDING EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...AND THIS COULD HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING
OUT LIKE LAST NIGHT. STILL...LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S SHOULD
BE THE RULE. ON TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL PICK UP A BIT
MORE AND HELP TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
CYCLONIC NWLY FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WILL GRADUALLY WEAR DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLLAPSE OF A L/W RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A SERIES OF MINOR TROUGHS IN WESTERLY
FLOW BY LATER THIS WEEK. UNTIL THEN THE DEPARTING NWLY FLOW REGIME
WILL STILL SEND A FEW WEAK COLD FRONTS CLOSE TO OUR AREA...THE
FIRST ON WED WITH ANOTHER BY THU. RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE
DAMPENED THE LATTER OF THESE FRONTS MARKEDLY WHEREAS THE LOW RES
ECMWF INDICATES A BIT MORE CHARACTER. NOTE: THE LOCAL INGEST OF
THE 00Z HI RES ECMWF FAILED...SO THE FINER DETAILS CONCERNING THIS
FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CHALLENGES WERE UNAVAILABLE.

WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL BACK SWLY AHEAD OF A S/W TROUGH
PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE DESERT SW. THIS WILL TAP A LAYER OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT WHILE ALSO ENCOURAGING A NWD ADVECTION OF
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THE 00Z LOW RES ECMWF
SCALED BACK THE DEPTH OF THIS WAVE COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS...BUT
REMAINS A BIT SHARPER THAN THE GFS. ALTHOUGH DPROG/DT AMONG THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAS YET TO SETTLE DOWN...THE
THEME IS FOR A PROGRESSIVE NEUTRAL TILT TROUGH IMPACTING WEST TX
FROM FRI NIGHT-SAT COMPLETE WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAINLY OFF
THE CAPROCK IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION. KEPT CHANCE POPS
INTACT ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES AS PWATS AROUND 3/4 INCH IN THIS
PATTERN COULD EASILY BE PUT TO WORK WITH THIS TROUGH. NO PRECIP
PHASE CHALLENGES ARE PRESENT THIS GO-AROUND AS SOUNDINGS POINT TO
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...WITH SVR STORMS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE EAST OF
OUR DOMAIN BY SAT AFTN.

FOLLOWING SATURDAY/S TROUGH...STRONGER CYCLONIC NWLY FLOW LOOKS TO
MAKE A RETURN COMPLETE WITH BREEZY/WARM W-NW SFC WINDS FOR SUNDAY
UNTIL A MODIFIED POLAR FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE SUN/EARLY MON WITH
CHILLY TEMPS FOR THE START OF THANKSGIVING WEEK. UNTIL THIS MORE
SUBSTANTIAL FROPA...MAX TEMPS WERE TRENDED UP MOST DAYS TO BETTER
FIT THE VERY MILD ECM AND MEX NUMBERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  23  51  26  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         46  25  53  26  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     49  24  53  26  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     49  25  54  29  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       51  28  53  28  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   50  23  56  30  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    50  26  55  29  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     50  29  54  29  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          50  30  55  30  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     53  32  57  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93
466
FXUS64 KLUB 180510
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1110 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR DOMINATING WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODEST SURFACE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO LEAD TO LOW-END SURFACE WIND GUSTS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014/

AVIATION...
DRY...VFR...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A MODEST SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT CENTERED JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF KLBB.
PERHAPS A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF
SITES TOMORROW AS A VERY WEAK IMPULSE TRANSLATES OVERHEAD...NOT
WORTH A CHANGE GROUP. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY WARMING BENEATH SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. 2 PM READINGS RANGED FROM 35 UP IN DIMMITT TO 45 OUT IN
GUTHRIE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS YESTERDAY/S SNOW
SWATH MELTING AND RETREATING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THERE MAY NOT BE
MUCH SNOW LEFT BY THIS EVENING...OTHER THAN AREAS REMAINING IN
SHADE. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES PROVIDING EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...AND THIS COULD HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING
OUT LIKE LAST NIGHT. STILL...LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S SHOULD
BE THE RULE. ON TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL PICK UP A BIT
MORE AND HELP TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

LONG TERM...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SET TO PASS THROUGH
WEST TEXAS SOMETIME SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL THAT THIS WAVE WILL BRING.

IN THE MEANTIME THOUGH...BY LATE TOMORROW NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD.  AS IT DOES SO...FLOW
ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE OVER THE
WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT
UPWARD CLIMB...ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER
LATE THURSDAY WILL LIKELY MUTE THIS WARMING TREND ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S...TO PERHAPS SOME LOW 60S ON
THE ROLLING PLAINS.  IN ADDITION...A VERY SUBTLE AND FAST MOVING
IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...BUT A LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT THIS WAVE FROM
IMPACTING THE REGION IN ANY MEANINGFUL WAY.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE SET TO EJECT FROM NEW
MEXICO SATURDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
DRIFTED TOWARDS A DEEPER LOW TRACK AND A MORE POTENT WAVE...WHICH
LENDS ITSELF TO GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS WEST TEXAS THAN
A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SHALLOWER WAVE WOULD.  THUS...OPTED TO
INCREASE POPS TO THE CHC 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY...AND ALSO EXTENDED SCHC 20% POPS FARTHER
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY.  WHILE THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF BY EARLY SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST AND DEEP WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW QUICKLY FILLS
IN. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BORDERLINE
STRONG WINDS SUNDAY...AS THE CORE OF A STRONG JET STREAK IS
PROGGED TO MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRIGGER
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        15  45  23  52  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         17  45  24  52  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     18  44  25  52  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     19  44  28  52  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       20  45  28  53  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   21  46  28  54  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    21  47  29  54  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     21  47  28  54  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          21  47  29  54  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     22  50  31  55  33 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
488
FXUS64 KLUB 172326
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.AVIATION...
DRY...VFR...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A MODEST SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT CENTERED JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF KLBB.
PERHAPS A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF
SITES TOMORROW AS A VERY WEAK IMPULSE TRANSLATES OVERHEAD...NOT
WORTH A CHANGE GROUP. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY WARMING BENEATH SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. 2 PM READINGS RANGED FROM 35 UP IN DIMMITT TO 45 OUT IN
GUTHRIE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS YESTERDAY/S SNOW
SWATH MELTING AND RETREATING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THERE MAY NOT BE
MUCH SNOW LEFT BY THIS EVENING...OTHER THAN AREAS REMAINING IN
SHADE. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES PROVIDING EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...AND THIS COULD HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING
OUT LIKE LAST NIGHT. STILL...LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S SHOULD
BE THE RULE. ON TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL PICK UP A BIT
MORE AND HELP TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

LONG TERM...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SET TO PASS THROUGH
WEST TEXAS SOMETIME SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL THAT THIS WAVE WILL BRING.

IN THE MEANTIME THOUGH...BY LATE TOMORROW NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD.  AS IT DOES SO...FLOW
ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE OVER THE
WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT
UPWARD CLIMB...ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER
LATE THURSDAY WILL LIKELY MUTE THIS WARMING TREND ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S...TO PERHAPS SOME LOW 60S ON
THE ROLLING PLAINS.  IN ADDITION...A VERY SUBTLE AND FAST MOVING
IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...BUT A LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT THIS WAVE FROM
IMPACTING THE REGION IN ANY MEANINGFUL WAY.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE SET TO EJECT FROM NEW
MEXICO SATURDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
DRIFTED TOWARDS A DEEPER LOW TRACK AND A MORE POTENT WAVE...WHICH
LENDS ITSELF TO GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS WEST TEXAS THAN
A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SHALLOWER WAVE WOULD.  THUS...OPTED TO
INCREASE POPS TO THE CHC 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY...AND ALSO EXTENDED SCHC 20% POPS FARTHER
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY.  WHILE THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF BY EARLY SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST AND DEEP WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW QUICKLY FILLS
IN. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BORDERLINE
STRONG WINDS SUNDAY...AS THE CORE OF A STRONG JET STREAK IS
PROGGED TO MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRIGGER
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        15  45  23  52  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         17  45  24  52  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     18  44  25  52  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     19  44  28  52  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       20  45  28  53  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   21  46  28  54  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    21  47  29  54  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     21  47  28  54  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          21  47  29  54  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     22  50  31  55  33 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
533
FXUS64 KLUB 172124
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
324 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY WARMING BENEATH SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. 2 PM READINGS RANGED FROM 35 UP IN DIMMITT TO 45 OUT IN
GUTHRIE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS YESTERDAY/S SNOW
SWATH MELTING AND RETREATING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THERE MAY NOT BE
MUCH SNOW LEFT BY THIS EVENING...OTHER THAN AREAS REMAINING IN
SHADE. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES PROVIDING EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...AND THIS COULD HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING
OUT LIKE LAST NIGHT. STILL...LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S SHOULD
BE THE RULE. ON TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL PICK UP A BIT
MORE AND HELP TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SET TO PASS THROUGH
WEST TEXAS SOMETIME SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL THAT THIS WAVE WILL BRING.

IN THE MEANTIME THOUGH...BY LATE TOMORROW NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD.  AS IT DOES SO...FLOW
ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE OVER THE
WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT
UPWARD CLIMB...ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER
LATE THURSDAY WILL LIKELY MUTE THIS WARMING TREND ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S...TO PERHAPS SOME LOW 60S ON
THE ROLLING PLAINS.  IN ADDITION...A VERY SUBTLE AND FAST MOVING
IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...BUT A LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT THIS WAVE FROM
IMPACTING THE REGION IN ANY MEANINGFUL WAY.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE SET TO EJECT FROM NEW
MEXICO SATURDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
DRIFTED TOWARDS A DEEPER LOW TRACK AND A MORE POTENT WAVE...WHICH
LENDS ITSELF TO GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS WEST TEXAS THAN
A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SHALLOWER WAVE WOULD.  THUS...OPTED TO
INCREASE POPS TO THE CHC 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY...AND ALSO EXTENDED SCHC 20% POPS FARTHER
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY.  WHILE THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF BY EARLY SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST AND DEEP WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW QUICKLY FILLS
IN. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BORDERLINE
STRONG WINDS SUNDAY...AS THE CORE OF A STRONG JET STREAK IS
PROGGED TO MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRIGGER
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        15  45  23  52  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         17  45  24  52  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     18  44  25  52  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     19  44  28  52  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       20  45  28  53  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   21  46  28  54  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    21  47  29  54  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     21  47  28  54  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          21  47  29  54  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     22  50  31  55  33 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/16
949
FXUS64 KLUB 171735
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1135 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR AND SKC WITH LIGHT WINDS THRU 18/12Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DEEP AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OCCUPIED THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THE
GREAT PLAINS THIS MORNING AND THIS THEME WILL REMAIN INTACT
THROUGH TONIGHT. A BROAD MERIDIONAL SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND BE LOCATED OFF
THE CAPROCK BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF MILDER SW BREEZES. SNOWPACK
COLOR CURVE ON IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE NAM AND RUC INITIALIZED
THE SNOW COVER RATHER WELL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES...SO WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE SCALED BACK MAX TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS AS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL CERTAINLY STUNT
RADIATIONAL WARMING...ESPECIALLY AFTER SOME BITTER LOWS TO START
THE DAY. AWAY FROM THE SNOW COVER... WENT WITH THE MILD MET
NUMBERS AS THESE DRY AIRMASSES OFTEN WARM SURPRISINGLY FAST UNDER
FULL SUN WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS. STEADY SW WINDS AREA WIDE TONIGHT
WILL MAKE FOR MILDER LOWS...HOWEVER EVEN THESE ARE STILL 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

LONG TERM...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEK WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS WAVE WILL BRING LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES. A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHICH THE MODELS HAVE
SLIGHT TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRY TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND SOME
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS. INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS WAVE ALONG WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT WILL TAKE
PLACE. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE RETURN TAKING PLACE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO STAY TOO FAR TO THE EAST OF
US TO PUT ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BUT ONLY DROP TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES. A MUCH STRONGER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH HOW STRONG THIS WAVE WILL BE.
REGARDLESS...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CREEPS INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND ONTO THE CAPROCK BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE CURRENT
SOLUTIONS HOLD TRUE...WE MAY SEE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH LOW-
END CHANCE AT THIS TIME BUT DID BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  14  46  24  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         35  16  47  26  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  18  48  26  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     39  20  49  27  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       40  19  48  28  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  21  50  27  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  21  50  28  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     37  20  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          41  22  49  31  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     42  22  51  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
248
FXUS64 KLUB 171127
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
527 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR AND SKC WITH LIGHT WINDS THRU 18/12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DEEP AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OCCUPIED THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THE
GREAT PLAINS THIS MORNING AND THIS THEME WILL REMAIN INTACT
THROUGH TONIGHT. A BROAD MERIDIONAL SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND BE LOCATED OFF
THE CAPROCK BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF MILDER SW BREEZES. SNOWPACK
COLOR CURVE ON IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE NAM AND RUC INITIALIZED
THE SNOW COVER RATHER WELL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES...SO WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE SCALED BACK MAX TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS AS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL CERTAINLY STUNT
RADIATIONAL WARMING...ESPECIALLY AFTER SOME BITTER LOWS TO START
THE DAY. AWAY FROM THE SNOW COVER... WENT WITH THE MILD MET
NUMBERS AS THESE DRY AIRMASSES OFTEN WARM SURPRISINGLY FAST UNDER
FULL SUN WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS. STEADY SW WINDS AREA WIDE TONIGHT
WILL MAKE FOR MILDER LOWS...HOWEVER EVEN THESE ARE STILL 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

LONG TERM...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEK WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS WAVE WILL BRING LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES. A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHICH THE MODELS HAVE
SLIGHT TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRY TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND SOME
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS. INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS WAVE ALONG WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT WILL TAKE
PLACE. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE RETURN TAKING PLACE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO STAY TOO FAR TO THE EAST OF
US TO PUT ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BUT ONLY DROP TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES. A MUCH STRONGER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH HOW STRONG THIS WAVE WILL BE.
REGARDLESS...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CREEPS INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND ONTO THE CAPROCK BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE CURRENT
SOLUTIONS HOLD TRUE...WE MAY SEE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH LOW-
END CHANCE AT THIS TIME BUT DID BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  14  46  24  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         35  16  47  26  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  18  48  26  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     39  20  49  27  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       40  19  48  28  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  21  50  27  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  21  50  28  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     37  20  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          41  22  49  31  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     42  22  51  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
395
FXUS64 KLUB 171012
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
412 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
DEEP AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OCCUPIED THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THE
GREAT PLAINS THIS MORNING AND THIS THEME WILL REMAIN INTACT
THROUGH TONIGHT. A BROAD MERIDIONAL SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND BE LOCATED OFF
THE CAPROCK BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF MILDER SW BREEZES. SNOWPACK
COLOR CURVE ON IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE NAM AND RUC INITIALIZED
THE SNOW COVER RATHER WELL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES...SO WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE SCALED BACK MAX TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS AS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL CERTAINLY STUNT
RADIATIONAL WARMING...ESPECIALLY AFTER SOME BITTER LOWS TO START
THE DAY. AWAY FROM THE SNOW COVER... WENT WITH THE MILD MET
NUMBERS AS THESE DRY AIRMASSES OFTEN WARM SURPRISINGLY FAST UNDER
FULL SUN WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS. STEADY SW WINDS AREA WIDE TONIGHT
WILL MAKE FOR MILDER LOWS...HOWEVER EVEN THESE ARE STILL 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEK WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS WAVE WILL BRING LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES. A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHICH THE MODELS HAVE
SLIGHT TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRY TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND SOME
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS. INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS WAVE ALONG WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT WILL TAKE
PLACE. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE RETURN TAKING PLACE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO STAY TOO FAR TO THE EAST OF
US TO PUT ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BUT ONLY DROP TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES. A MUCH STRONGER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH HOW STRONG THIS WAVE WILL BE.
REGARDLESS...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CREEPS INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND ONTO THE CAPROCK BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE CURRENT
SOLUTIONS HOLD TRUE...WE MAY SEE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH LOW-
END CHANCE AT THIS TIME BUT DID BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

JORDAN



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  14  46  24  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         35  16  47  26  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  18  48  26  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     39  20  49  27  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       40  19  48  28  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  21  50  27  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  21  50  28  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     37  20  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          41  22  49  31  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     42  22  51  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14
210
FXUS64 KLUB 170511
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1111 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SNOWFALL NOW EAST OF THE REGION. DEEP DRY
AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH TO RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

UPDATE...
OTHER THAN SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PART OF THE FCST AREA...SNOW HAS COME TO AN END FOR THIS EVENT. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HAVE HUNG ONTO
A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION EAST UNTIL 10 PM AT WHICH TIME ALL PRECIP
SHOULD HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO TEMPS TONIGHT. ALREADY WITH CLEAR SKIES
HAVING WORKED IN QUICKLY WITH THE END OF THE SNOW AND THE PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HAVE SEEN TEMPS DROP TO OR EVEN BELOW
FCST...IN PARTICULAR ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES WHERE GREATEST AMOUNT
OF SNOW FELL TODAY. UNSURE HOW MUCH MOVE LOWERING OF DEW POINTS
WILL BE SEEN THAT AREA...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST LOW
TEMPS LIKELY TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW FCST FOR AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK WITH A LITTLE LESS CHANCE OF OVERSHOOTING FCST LOWS ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS TREND IN THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

UPDATE...
SNOW COMING TO AN END ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR BUT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS. NOT MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION BUT
WITH SNOW STILL FALLING AND ROADWAYS SLICK AND ICY HAVE EXTENDED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN 2 COLUMNS OF COUNTIES
TO 8 PM. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED
TRENDS.

AVIATION...
SNOW TO COME TO AN END AT KLBB BY 01Z AND AT KCDS BY 03Z AT THE
LATEST. PRONOUNCED CLEARING OF CLOUDS BEHIND THE END TO THE
PRECIPITATION. ENOUGH DRY AND COLD ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT THAT WE CURRENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
OR STRATUS LATER TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO TRACK FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW IN ITS
WAKE. RADAR RETURNS HAD INDICATED ANOTHER MODERATE AREA OF SNOW NEAR
TUCUMCARI IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT THIS HAS RECENTLY FIZZLED INTO A MUCH
LIGHTER POCKET OF ACTIVITY. AS EXPECTED...THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS HAVE SEEN THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATION TOTALS...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE
LATTER AMOUNT OCCURRING IN HART. WILL SEE POTENTIALLY UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO FARTHER WEST.
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW AS WET BULB COOLING AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION HAVE BROUGHT BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING THUS LEADING
TO SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SET TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM FOR NOW BARRING ANY
UNFORESEEN DEVELOPMENTS.

FRESH SNOW PACK AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. GENERALLY
FAVORED COOLER LOCALES IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS MAY EVEN MAKE A RUN AT SINGLE DIGITS WHILE THE
SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS MAY BE ABLE TO HOLD NEAR THE 20 DEGREE
MARK. WIND CHILLS WILL RESIDE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY WILL BRING A DRY AND COLD START TO THE WEEK AS SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. DECREASING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
MAKE FOR A PICTURE PERFECT DAY...BUT THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL
STAY LOCKED IN PLACE ONLY ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE.

LONG TERM...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH LITTLE IMPACT. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS RISING FROM MAINLY 40S TUESDAY TO
MAINLY 50S THURSDAY. WHILE LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE.
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE SRN CONUS...AND YET ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT IN IT/S WAKE COULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE REGARDING
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT BASIN...AND OFFER
LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IF THE SYSTEM
DIGS DEEP ENOUGH THAT MOISTURE RETURN COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH BLENDED
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT. AND AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE
PLAINS...DRY WESTERLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP ON THE CAPROCK AT SOME
POINT DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND APPEAR LIKELY
TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA         5  35  16  43  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA          8  36  16  44  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW      8  37  19  45  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     10  38  20  46  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       10  39  20  46  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   14  39  21  46  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    14  38  21  46  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     14  39  21  49  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          16  40  22  49  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     19  43  23  51  32 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29/07
350
FXUS64 KLUB 170215
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
815 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.UPDATE...
OTHER THAN SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PART OF THE FCST AREA...SNOW HAS COME TO AN END FOR THIS EVENT. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HAVE HUNG ONTO
A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION EAST UNTIL 10 PM AT WHICH TIME ALL PRECIP
SHOULD HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO TEMPS TONIGHT. ALREADY WITH CLEAR SKIES
HAVING WORKED IN QUICKLY WITH THE END OF THE SNOW AND THE PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HAVE SEEN TEMPS DROP TO OR EVEN BELOW
FCST...IN PARTICULAR ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES WHERE GREATEST AMOUNT
OF SNOW FELL TODAY. UNSURE HOW MUCH MOVE LOWERING OF DEW POINTS
WILL BE SEEN THAT AREA...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST LOW
TEMPS LIKELY TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW FCST FOR AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK WITH A LITTLE LESS CHANCE OF OVERSHOOTING FCST LOWS ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS TREND IN THIS UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

UPDATE...
SNOW COMING TO AN END ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR BUT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS. NOT MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION BUT
WITH SNOW STILL FALLING AND ROADWAYS SLICK AND ICY HAVE EXTENDED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN 2 COLUMNS OF COUNTIES
TO 8 PM. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED
TRENDS.

AVIATION...
SNOW TO COME TO AN END AT KLBB BY 01Z AND AT KCDS BY 03Z AT THE
LATEST. PRONOUNCED CLEARING OF CLOUDS BEHIND THE END TO THE
PRECIPITATION. ENOUGH DRY AND COLD ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT THAT WE CURRENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
OR STRATUS LATER TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO TRACK FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW IN ITS
WAKE. RADAR RETURNS HAD INDICATED ANOTHER MODERATE AREA OF SNOW NEAR
TUCUMCARI IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT THIS HAS RECENTLY FIZZLED INTO A MUCH
LIGHTER POCKET OF ACTIVITY. AS EXPECTED...THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS HAVE SEEN THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATION TOTALS...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE
LATTER AMOUNT OCCURRING IN HART. WILL SEE POTENTIALLY UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO FARTHER WEST.
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW AS WET BULB COOLING AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION HAVE BROUGHT BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING THUS LEADING
TO SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SET TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM FOR NOW BARRING ANY
UNFORESEEN DEVELOPMENTS.

FRESH SNOW PACK AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. GENERALLY
FAVORED COOLER LOCALES IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS MAY EVEN MAKE A RUN AT SINGLE DIGITS WHILE THE
SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS MAY BE ABLE TO HOLD NEAR THE 20 DEGREE
MARK. WIND CHILLS WILL RESIDE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY WILL BRING A DRY AND COLD START TO THE WEEK AS SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. DECREASING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
MAKE FOR A PICTURE PERFECT DAY...BUT THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL
STAY LOCKED IN PLACE ONLY ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE.

LONG TERM...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH LITTLE IMPACT. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS RISING FROM MAINLY 40S TUESDAY TO
MAINLY 50S THURSDAY. WHILE LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE.
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE SRN CONUS...AND YET ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT IN IT/S WAKE COULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE REGARDING
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT BASIN...AND OFFER
LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IF THE SYSTEM
DIGS DEEP ENOUGH THAT MOISTURE RETURN COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH BLENDED
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT. AND AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE
PLAINS...DRY WESTERLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP ON THE CAPROCK AT SOME
POINT DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND APPEAR LIKELY
TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA         5  35  16  43  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA          8  36  16  44  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW      8  37  19  45  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     10  38  20  46  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       10  39  20  46  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   14  39  21  46  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    14  38  21  46  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     14  39  21  49  28 /  20   0   0   0   0
SPUR          16  40  22  49  30 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     19  43  23  51  32 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29
980
FXUS64 KLUB 170026
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
626 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.UPDATE...
SNOW COMING TO AN END ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR BUT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS. NOT MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION BUT
WITH SNOW STILL FALLING AND ROADWAYS SLICK AND ICY HAVE EXTENDED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN 2 COLUMNS OF COUNTIES
TO 8 PM. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED
TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SNOW TO COME TO AN END AT KLBB BY 01Z AND AT KCDS BY 03Z AT THE
LATEST. PRONOUNCED CLEARING OF CLOUDS BEHIND THE END TO THE
PRECIPITATION. ENOUGH DRY AND COLD ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT THAT WE CURRENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
OR STRATUS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO TRACK FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW IN ITS
WAKE. RADAR RETURNS HAD INDICATED ANOTHER MODERATE AREA OF SNOW NEAR
TUCUMCARI IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT THIS HAS RECENTLY FIZZLED INTO A MUCH
LIGHTER POCKET OF ACTIVITY. AS EXPECTED...THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS HAVE SEEN THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATION TOTALS...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE
LATTER AMOUNT OCCURRING IN HART. WILL SEE POTENTIALLY UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO FARTHER WEST.
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW AS WET BULB COOLING AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION HAVE BROUGHT BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING THUS LEADING
TO SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SET TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM FOR NOW BARRING ANY
UNFORESEEN DEVELOPMENTS.

FRESH SNOW PACK AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. GENERALLY
FAVORED COOLER LOCALES IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS MAY EVEN MAKE A RUN AT SINGLE DIGITS WHILE THE
SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS MAY BE ABLE TO HOLD NEAR THE 20 DEGREE
MARK. WIND CHILLS WILL RESIDE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY WILL BRING A DRY AND COLD START TO THE WEEK AS SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. DECREASING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
MAKE FOR A PICTURE PERFECT DAY...BUT THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL
STAY LOCKED IN PLACE ONLY ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE.

LONG TERM...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH LITTLE IMPACT. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS RISING FROM MAINLY 40S TUESDAY TO
MAINLY 50S THURSDAY. WHILE LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE.
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE SRN CONUS...AND YET ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT IN IT/S WAKE COULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE REGARDING
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT BASIN...AND OFFER
LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IF THE SYSTEM
DIGS DEEP ENOUGH THAT MOISTURE RETURN COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH BLENDED
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT. AND AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE
PLAINS...DRY WESTERLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP ON THE CAPROCK AT SOME
POINT DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND APPEAR LIKELY
TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        10  35  16  43  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         11  36  16  44  25 /  20   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     14  37  19  45  26 /  20   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     15  38  20  46  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       16  39  20  46  29 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   19  39  21  46  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    18  38  21  46  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     17  39  21  49  28 / 100   0   0   0   0
SPUR          17  40  22  49  30 / 100   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     20  43  23  51  32 / 100   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ025-026-031-032-037-038-043-044.

&&

$$

07/29/07
786
FXUS64 KLUB 162139
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
339 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO TRACK FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW IN ITS
WAKE. RADAR RETURNS HAD INDICATED ANOTHER MODERATE AREA OF SNOW NEAR
TUCUMCARI IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT THIS HAS RECENTLY FIZZLED INTO A MUCH
LIGHTER POCKET OF ACTIVITY. AS EXPECTED...THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS HAVE SEEN THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATION TOTALS...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE
LATTER AMOUNT OCCURRING IN HART. WILL SEE POTENTIALLY UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO FARTHER WEST.
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW AS WET BULB COOLING AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION HAVE BROUGHT BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING THUS LEADING
TO SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SET TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM FOR NOW BARRING ANY
UNFORESEEN DEVELOPMENTS.

FRESH SNOW PACK AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. GENERALLY
FAVORED COOLER LOCALES IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS MAY EVEN MAKE A RUN AT SINGLE DIGITS WHILE THE
SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS MAY BE ABLE TO HOLD NEAR THE 20 DEGREE
MARK. WIND CHILLS WILL RESIDE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY WILL BRING A DRY AND COLD START TO THE WEEK AS SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. DECREASING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
MAKE FOR A PICTURE PERFECT DAY...BUT THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL
STAY LOCKED IN PLACE ONLY ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH LITTLE IMPACT. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS RISING FROM MAINLY 40S TUESDAY TO
MAINLY 50S THURSDAY. WHILE LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE.
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE SRN CONUS...AND YET ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT IN IT/S WAKE COULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE REGARDING
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT BASIN...AND OFFER
LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IF THE SYSTEM
DIGS DEEP ENOUGH THAT MOISTURE RETURN COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH BLENDED
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT. AND AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE
PLAINS...DRY WESTERLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP ON THE CAPROCK AT SOME
POINT DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND APPEAR LIKELY
TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        10  35  16  43  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         11  36  16  44  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     14  37  19  45  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     15  38  20  46  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       16  39  20  46  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   19  39  21  46  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    18  38  21  46  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     17  39  21  49  28 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          17  40  22  49  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     20  43  23  51  32 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

31/33
452
FXUS64 KLUB 161832
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1232 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER
THE ENTIRETY OF THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH
PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. RADAR
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW...STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHEAST OF AMARILLO SOUTHWEST TO ABOUT ARTESIA. THIS IS AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO. FRIONA REPORTED OVER 2 INCHES OF SNOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE DIMMITT HAD AROUND 1 INCH. A QUICK INCH WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THIS
UPPER SUPPORT SLIDES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. A FEW LOCATIONS
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE ROLLING
PLAINS HAVE BEEN REPORTING LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH THIS
THREAT SHOULD BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION ERODING AN ELEVATED WARM NOSE...A LIGHT GLAZE
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT SNOW IMPACTING MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A LITTLE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINING IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. KCDS
WILL SEE -SN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH KLBB ALSO SEEING SOME MOVE
IN BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY MVFR WITH
INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH AT KCDS TO LESS THAN ONE INCH AT KLBB. SNOW SHOULD
COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING AS CLEARING QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM WEST TO EAST AND LIFTS BOTH SITES TO VFR. NORTH WINDS WILL
DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND BACK TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTINUED TO SPILL SOUTH THIS MORNING
FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRUNT OF THE CWA WILL END
UP RECORDING MIDNIGHT HIGHS FOR THE DATE AS WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND
FALLING TEMPS THROUGH 18Z KEEP HIGHS SOME 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A FAIRLY STOUT TROUGH AT 08Z
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS COMPLETE WITH A REGION OF SHARPENING
DIFFLUENCE AND T-STORMS NEAR SHIPROCK/NM. FAVORABLE UL DIVERGENCE
ACCOMPANYING A 100+ KNOT JET CORE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND REACH OUR DOMAIN AROUND 18Z...
HOWEVER THE TROUGH WILL SHALLOW OUT AND WEAKEN DURING THIS TIME
WHICH PRESENTS SOME CONCERN AS TO THE LONGEVITY OF ANY SNOW
THEREAFTER. DESPITE THIS TREND...MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT DEEP ASCENT IN WILL UNFOLD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BEFORE THE TROUGH ACCELERATES OUT
OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AHEAD OF SHARP MID-LEVEL DRYING.

COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN ERN NM THIS MORNING AND INCREASING COVERAGE
OF VIRGA ECHOES TOWARD TUCUMCARI CONFIRM TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS
INCREASING IN EARNEST. THIS LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD
REACH OUR NWRN ZONES IN THE COMING HOURS IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES
OR VERY LIGHT SNOW. BY MID/LATE MORNING...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
DENDRITIC LAYER SATURATING TO DEPTHS AS DEEP AS 8K FEET AT FRIONA
COINCIDENT WITH THE GREATEST DYNAMIC FORCING. ADDITIONALLY...FN
FORCING AROUND THE 700MB LAYER COULD YIELD A FEW SEGMENTS OF
ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE NE- SW AXIS OF
HEIGHT FALLS WILL ADVANCE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROWING BAND OF SNOW AS
BACKGROUND ASCENT GRADUALLY WANES IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING
TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...THE CORE OF THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX IS
PROGGED TO TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 114 CORRIDOR WHICH
SHOULD PRESENT A FOCUSED AREA OF LIFT FARTHER NORTH.
HISTORICALLY...SNOWFALL TENDS TO BE MAXIMIZED A FEW DEGREES NORTH
OF THE TRACK OF THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND THIS LINES
UP WELL WITH WPC SNOW PROGS SHOWING A BROAD SWATH OF 1-2 INCHES
CENTERED ALONG I-40. THIS FACTOR ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SUPPORT FROM
SREF PLUME DATA FOR CHILDRESS WARRANTED THE EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY EAST INTO CHILDRESS COUNTY. TRAVEL IMPACTS
COULD BE SPARED FROM THE WORST GRIEF AS TODAY/S SNOW APPEARS TO BE
OF THE DRIER VARIETY CONSIDERING SNOW RATIOS ARE AROUND 17:1
ACROSS OUR NWRN ZONES...WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE CONTENT FARTHER
EAST. NONETHELESS...THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON
USUALLY WARRANTS A LOWER THRESHOLD OF IMPACTS FOR THE PUBLIC.

POPS THIS MORNING WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE SWRN ZONES AND RAMPED UP
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO CAPTURE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
SEE SOME SNOW THIS AFTN...BUT THE DURATION OF THIS SHOULD BE MORE
ABBREVIATED ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA FOR REASONS ALREADY
CITED. AS THE SNOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...AGGRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE WILL
FOLLOW CLOSELY ON ITS HEELS AND ACT TO SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING
SNOW FROM NW-SE AS WE PROCEED TOWARD SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE A WINDOW FOR FLURRIES
WILL REMAIN OPEN FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BUT OVERALL THE
THEME TONIGHT IS DRY AND CLEAR WITH LIGHT NW WINDS. MIN TEMPS WERE
LOWERED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE A LIGHT SNOW COVER
SHOULD GARNER A BITTERLY COLD NIGHT WITH NEAR SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS FORTUNATELY LOOK TO HOLD JUST BELOW 10
MPH...SO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS QUIET COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM.
MAIN IMPACT OF THE SNOW THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY IS WHERE ANY SNOW PACK WILL BE LEFT. EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING...HIGH ALBEDO FROM
SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL KEEP AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN AREAS THAT HAVE BARE GROUND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER BUT UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES WHERE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. A
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. A WEAK FRONT TRIES
TO PUSH SOUTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE FOR THURSDAY BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE FRONT STALL OUT ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DIFFERENCES RETURN TO THE MODELS BY THURSDAY AS
THE GFS DEVELOPS A SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WINGS OUT ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH BROADER AND WEAKER SHORTWAVE
ABOUT THE SAME TIME. THIS LOOKS TO HELP PUSH ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN SOME FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY DEVELOPS RETURN FLOW
AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS.

NEXT WEEKEND REMAINS UNSETTLED IN THE FORECAST AS THE ECMWF BRINGS
A CLOSED LOW OUT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER WITH THE WAVE ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE
CAN GET MOISTURE RETURN BACK ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS SLOW ENOUGH...WE MAY SEE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CAPROCK. SUPERBLEND OF MODEL DATA
DROPPED IN SOME LOW END POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
FOR SATURDAY AND CANNOT ARGUE AGAINST IT BUT DID TAPER BACK POPS
BELOW MENTION FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS BETTER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THEN.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  10  37  15  45 / 100   0   0   0   0
TULIA         24  12  36  18  46 / 100   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     25  15  37  20  46 / 100   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     26  15  39  20  46 /  90   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       26  16  39  22  46 /  90   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  19  40  22  46 /  70   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    29  18  40  22  46 /  80   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     27  17  36  22  50 / 100   0   0   0   0
SPUR          28  17  40  24  49 /  80   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     31  20  42  24  50 /  80  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

31
324
FXUS64 KLUB 161755
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1155 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SNOW IMPACTING MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A LITTLE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINING IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. KCDS
WILL SEE -SN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH KLBB ALSO SEEING SOME MOVE
IN BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY MVFR WITH
INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH AT KCDS TO LESS THAN ONE INCH AT KLBB. SNOW SHOULD
COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING AS CLEARING QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM WEST TO EAST AND LIFTS BOTH SITES TO VFR. NORTH WINDS WILL
DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND BACK TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTINUED TO SPILL SOUTH THIS MORNING
FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRUNT OF THE CWA WILL END
UP RECORDING MIDNIGHT HIGHS FOR THE DATE AS WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND
FALLING TEMPS THROUGH 18Z KEEP HIGHS SOME 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A FAIRLY STOUT TROUGH AT 08Z
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS COMPLETE WITH A REGION OF SHARPENING
DIFFLUENCE AND T-STORMS NEAR SHIPROCK/NM. FAVORABLE UL DIVERGENCE
ACCOMPANYING A 100+ KNOT JET CORE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND REACH OUR DOMAIN AROUND 18Z...
HOWEVER THE TROUGH WILL SHALLOW OUT AND WEAKEN DURING THIS TIME
WHICH PRESENTS SOME CONCERN AS TO THE LONGEVITY OF ANY SNOW
THEREAFTER. DESPITE THIS TREND...MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT DEEP ASCENT IN WILL UNFOLD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BEFORE THE TROUGH ACCELERATES OUT
OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AHEAD OF SHARP MID-LEVEL DRYING.

COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN ERN NM THIS MORNING AND INCREASING COVERAGE
OF VIRGA ECHOES TOWARD TUCUMCARI CONFIRM TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS
INCREASING IN EARNEST. THIS LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD
REACH OUR NWRN ZONES IN THE COMING HOURS IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES
OR VERY LIGHT SNOW. BY MID/LATE MORNING...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
DENDRITIC LAYER SATURATING TO DEPTHS AS DEEP AS 8K FEET AT FRIONA
COINCIDENT WITH THE GREATEST DYNAMIC FORCING. ADDITIONALLY...FN
FORCING AROUND THE 700MB LAYER COULD YIELD A FEW SEGMENTS OF
ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE NE- SW AXIS OF
HEIGHT FALLS WILL ADVANCE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROWING BAND OF SNOW AS
BACKGROUND ASCENT GRADUALLY WANES IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING
TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...THE CORE OF THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX IS
PROGGED TO TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 114 CORRIDOR WHICH
SHOULD PRESENT A FOCUSED AREA OF LIFT FARTHER NORTH.
HISTORICALLY...SNOWFALL TENDS TO BE MAXIMIZED A FEW DEGREES NORTH
OF THE TRACK OF THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND THIS LINES
UP WELL WITH WPC SNOW PROGS SHOWING A BROAD SWATH OF 1-2 INCHES
CENTERED ALONG I-40. THIS FACTOR ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SUPPORT FROM
SREF PLUME DATA FOR CHILDRESS WARRANTED THE EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY EAST INTO CHILDRESS COUNTY. TRAVEL IMPACTS
COULD BE SPARED FROM THE WORST GRIEF AS TODAY/S SNOW APPEARS TO BE
OF THE DRIER VARIETY CONSIDERING SNOW RATIOS ARE AROUND 17:1
ACROSS OUR NWRN ZONES...WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE CONTENT FARTHER
EAST. NONETHELESS...THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON
USUALLY WARRANTS A LOWER THRESHOLD OF IMPACTS FOR THE PUBLIC.

POPS THIS MORNING WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE SWRN ZONES AND RAMPED UP
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO CAPTURE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
SEE SOME SNOW THIS AFTN...BUT THE DURATION OF THIS SHOULD BE MORE
ABBREVIATED ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA FOR REASONS ALREADY
CITED. AS THE SNOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...AGGRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE WILL
FOLLOW CLOSELY ON ITS HEELS AND ACT TO SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING
SNOW FROM NW-SE AS WE PROCEED TOWARD SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE A WINDOW FOR FLURRIES
WILL REMAIN OPEN FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BUT OVERALL THE
THEME TONIGHT IS DRY AND CLEAR WITH LIGHT NW WINDS. MIN TEMPS WERE
LOWERED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE A LIGHT SNOW COVER
SHOULD GARNER A BITTERLY COLD NIGHT WITH NEAR SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS FORTUNATELY LOOK TO HOLD JUST BELOW 10
MPH...SO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS QUIET COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM.
MAIN IMPACT OF THE SNOW THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY IS WHERE ANY SNOW PACK WILL BE LEFT. EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING...HIGH ALBEDO FROM
SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL KEEP AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN AREAS THAT HAVE BARE GROUND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER BUT UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES WHERE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. A
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. A WEAK FRONT TRIES
TO PUSH SOUTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE FOR THURSDAY BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE FRONT STALL OUT ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DIFFERENCES RETURN TO THE MODELS BY THURSDAY AS
THE GFS DEVELOPS A SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WINGS OUT ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH BROADER AND WEAKER SHORTWAVE
ABOUT THE SAME TIME. THIS LOOKS TO HELP PUSH ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN SOME FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY DEVELOPS RETURN FLOW
AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS.

NEXT WEEKEND REMAINS UNSETTLED IN THE FORECAST AS THE ECMWF BRINGS
A CLOSED LOW OUT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER WITH THE WAVE ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE
CAN GET MOISTURE RETURN BACK ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS SLOW ENOUGH...WE MAY SEE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CAPROCK. SUPERBLEND OF MODEL DATA
DROPPED IN SOME LOW END POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
FOR SATURDAY AND CANNOT ARGUE AGAINST IT BUT DID TAPER BACK POPS
BELOW MENTION FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS BETTER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THEN.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  10  37  15  45 / 100   0   0   0   0
TULIA         24  12  36  18  46 / 100   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     25  15  37  20  46 / 100   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     26  15  39  20  46 /  70   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       26  16  39  22  46 /  80   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  19  40  22  46 /  50   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    29  18  40  22  46 /  50   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     27  17  36  22  50 / 100   0   0   0   0
SPUR          28  17  40  24  49 /  70   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     31  20  42  24  50 /  80  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>032-038-044.

&&

$$

31
754
FXUS64 KLUB 161641
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1041 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.UPDATE...
EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN COLUMN OF
THE ROLLING PLAINS EXTENDING FROM PADUCAH SOUTH THROUGH ASPERMONT.
RADAR AND LOCAL OBSERVERS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT ICING
CURRENTLY ONGOING AND MAKING FOR SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS HERE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AS A WARM NOSE AROUND 700-750 MB ERODES.

BAND OF MODERATE SNOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST HAS BEEN REPORTED
TO MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN AND AROUND TUCUMCARI...BUT CURRENTLY
EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND UPDATE
FORECAST/ADVISORY AS NEEDED INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND CULMINATE WITH UP TO A
COUPLE HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTN AT BOTH LBB AND CDS. INSERTED
A SHORT TEMPO MENTION AT LBB BEGINNING AT 21Z WHEN A BAND OF
DIMINISHING SNOW IS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL. ALTHOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS HERE SHOULD BE UNDER AN INCH...AN AIRPORT WX
WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY IF LATER FORECASTS DEEM NECESSARY. CDS
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF AN INCH OF SNOW BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
AFTER SUNSET AND RETURNS CONDS EVERYWHERE TO SKC AND VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTINUED TO SPILL SOUTH THIS MORNING
FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRUNT OF THE CWA WILL END
UP RECORDING MIDNIGHT HIGHS FOR THE DATE AS WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND
FALLING TEMPS THROUGH 18Z KEEP HIGHS SOME 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A FAIRLY STOUT TROUGH AT 08Z
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS COMPLETE WITH A REGION OF SHARPENING
DIFFLUENCE AND T-STORMS NEAR SHIPROCK/NM. FAVORABLE UL DIVERGENCE
ACCOMPANYING A 100+ KNOT JET CORE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND REACH OUR DOMAIN AROUND 18Z...
HOWEVER THE TROUGH WILL SHALLOW OUT AND WEAKEN DURING THIS TIME
WHICH PRESENTS SOME CONCERN AS TO THE LONGEVITY OF ANY SNOW
THEREAFTER. DESPITE THIS TREND...MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT DEEP ASCENT IN WILL UNFOLD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BEFORE THE TROUGH ACCELERATES OUT
OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AHEAD OF SHARP MID-LEVEL DRYING.

COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN ERN NM THIS MORNING AND INCREASING COVERAGE
OF VIRGA ECHOES TOWARD TUCUMCARI CONFIRM TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS
INCREASING IN EARNEST. THIS LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD
REACH OUR NWRN ZONES IN THE COMING HOURS IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES
OR VERY LIGHT SNOW. BY MID/LATE MORNING...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
DENDRITIC LAYER SATURATING TO DEPTHS AS DEEP AS 8K FEET AT FRIONA
COINCIDENT WITH THE GREATEST DYNAMIC FORCING. ADDITIONALLY...FN
FORCING AROUND THE 700MB LAYER COULD YIELD A FEW SEGMENTS OF
ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE NE- SW AXIS OF
HEIGHT FALLS WILL ADVANCE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROWING BAND OF SNOW AS
BACKGROUND ASCENT GRADUALLY WANES IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING
TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...THE CORE OF THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX IS
PROGGED TO TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 114 CORRIDOR WHICH
SHOULD PRESENT A FOCUSED AREA OF LIFT FARTHER NORTH.
HISTORICALLY...SNOWFALL TENDS TO BE MAXIMIZED A FEW DEGREES NORTH
OF THE TRACK OF THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND THIS LINES
UP WELL WITH WPC SNOW PROGS SHOWING A BROAD SWATH OF 1-2 INCHES
CENTERED ALONG I-40. THIS FACTOR ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SUPPORT FROM
SREF PLUME DATA FOR CHILDRESS WARRANTED THE EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY EAST INTO CHILDRESS COUNTY. TRAVEL IMPACTS
COULD BE SPARED FROM THE WORST GRIEF AS TODAY/S SNOW APPEARS TO BE
OF THE DRIER VARIETY CONSIDERING SNOW RATIOS ARE AROUND 17:1
ACROSS OUR NWRN ZONES...WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE CONTENT FARTHER
EAST. NONETHELESS...THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON
USUALLY WARRANTS A LOWER THRESHOLD OF IMPACTS FOR THE PUBLIC.

POPS THIS MORNING WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE SWRN ZONES AND RAMPED UP
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO CAPTURE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
SEE SOME SNOW THIS AFTN...BUT THE DURATION OF THIS SHOULD BE MORE
ABBREVIATED ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA FOR REASONS ALREADY
CITED. AS THE SNOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...AGGRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE WILL
FOLLOW CLOSELY ON ITS HEELS AND ACT TO SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING
SNOW FROM NW-SE AS WE PROCEED TOWARD SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE A WINDOW FOR FLURRIES
WILL REMAIN OPEN FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BUT OVERALL THE
THEME TONIGHT IS DRY AND CLEAR WITH LIGHT NW WINDS. MIN TEMPS WERE
LOWERED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE A LIGHT SNOW COVER
SHOULD GARNER A BITTERLY COLD NIGHT WITH NEAR SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS FORTUNATELY LOOK TO HOLD JUST BELOW 10
MPH...SO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS QUIET COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM.
MAIN IMPACT OF THE SNOW THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY IS WHERE ANY SNOW PACK WILL BE LEFT. EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING...HIGH ALBEDO FROM
SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL KEEP AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN AREAS THAT HAVE BARE GROUND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER BUT UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES WHERE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. A
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. A WEAK FRONT TRIES
TO PUSH SOUTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE FOR THURSDAY BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE FRONT STALL OUT ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DIFFERENCES RETURN TO THE MODELS BY THURSDAY AS
THE GFS DEVELOPS A SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WINGS OUT ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH BROADER AND WEAKER SHORTWAVE
ABOUT THE SAME TIME. THIS LOOKS TO HELP PUSH ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN SOME FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY DEVELOPS RETURN FLOW
AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS.

NEXT WEEKEND REMAINS UNSETTLED IN THE FORECAST AS THE ECMWF BRINGS
A CLOSED LOW OUT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER WITH THE WAVE ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE
CAN GET MOISTURE RETURN BACK ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS SLOW ENOUGH...WE MAY SEE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CAPROCK. SUPERBLEND OF MODEL DATA
DROPPED IN SOME LOW END POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
FOR SATURDAY AND CANNOT ARGUE AGAINST IT BUT DID TAPER BACK POPS
BELOW MENTION FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS BETTER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THEN.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  10  37  15  45 / 100   0   0   0   0
TULIA         24  12  36  18  46 / 100   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     25  15  37  20  46 /  90   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     26  15  39  20  46 /  70   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       26  16  39  22  46 /  70   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  19  40  22  46 /  40   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    29  18  40  22  46 /  40   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     27  17  36  22  50 / 100   0   0   0   0
SPUR          28  17  40  24  49 /  60   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     31  20  42  24  50 /  80  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>032-038-044.

&&

$$

31
952
FXUS64 KLUB 161250 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
650 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING TO THE SRN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AREA WEB CAMS...COMPOSITE RADAR AND DIRECT
OBSERVATIONS HERE AT THE OFFICE ARE CONFIRMING LIGHT FZDZ AS THE
COLUMN ALOFT IS GRADUALLY SATURATING SHORT OF THE DENDRITIC/ICE
ACTIVATION LAYER. THIS WAS THE CASE JUST OVER ONE HOUR AGO AT CDS
WHERE PRECIP BEGAN AS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW
SHORTLY THEREAFTER...HOWEVER THE LATEST CALL TO CHILDRESS LAW
ENFORCEMENT INDICATED SLEET WAS FALLING. UNFORTUNATELY WE/VE
ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS OF A FEW CAR ACCIDENTS IN CHILDRESS UP TO
CLARENDON FROM SLICK ROADS AND CONDITIONS SHOW NO SIGN OF
IMPROVING WITH TEMPS STILL FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND CULMINATE WITH UP TO A
COUPLE HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTN AT BOTH LBB AND CDS. INSERTED
A SHORT TEMPO MENTION AT LBB BEGINNING AT 21Z WHEN A BAND OF
DIMINISHING SNOW IS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL. ALTHOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS HERE SHOULD BE UNDER AN INCH...AN AIRPORT WX
WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY IF LATER FORECASTS DEEM NECESSARY. CDS
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF AN INCH OF SNOW BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
AFTER SUNSET AND RETURNS CONDS EVERYWHERE TO SKC AND VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTINUED TO SPILL SOUTH THIS MORNING
FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRUNT OF THE CWA WILL END
UP RECORDING MIDNIGHT HIGHS FOR THE DATE AS WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND
FALLING TEMPS THROUGH 18Z KEEP HIGHS SOME 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A FAIRLY STOUT TROUGH AT 08Z
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS COMPLETE WITH A REGION OF SHARPENING
DIFFLUENCE AND T-STORMS NEAR SHIPROCK/NM. FAVORABLE UL DIVERGENCE
ACCOMPANYING A 100+ KNOT JET CORE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND REACH OUR DOMAIN AROUND 18Z...
HOWEVER THE TROUGH WILL SHALLOW OUT AND WEAKEN DURING THIS TIME
WHICH PRESENTS SOME CONCERN AS TO THE LONGEVITY OF ANY SNOW
THEREAFTER. DESPITE THIS TREND...MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT DEEP ASCENT IN WILL UNFOLD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BEFORE THE TROUGH ACCELERATES OUT
OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AHEAD OF SHARP MID-LEVEL DRYING.

COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN ERN NM THIS MORNING AND INCREASING COVERAGE
OF VIRGA ECHOES TOWARD TUCUMCARI CONFIRM TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS
INCREASING IN EARNEST. THIS LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD
REACH OUR NWRN ZONES IN THE COMING HOURS IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES
OR VERY LIGHT SNOW. BY MID/LATE MORNING...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
DENDRITIC LAYER SATURATING TO DEPTHS AS DEEP AS 8K FEET AT FRIONA
COINCIDENT WITH THE GREATEST DYNAMIC FORCING. ADDITIONALLY...FN
FORCING AROUND THE 700MB LAYER COULD YIELD A FEW SEGMENTS OF
ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE NE- SW AXIS OF
HEIGHT FALLS WILL ADVANCE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROWING BAND OF SNOW AS
BACKGROUND ASCENT GRADUALLY WANES IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING
TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...THE CORE OF THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX IS
PROGGED TO TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 114 CORRIDOR WHICH
SHOULD PRESENT A FOCUSED AREA OF LIFT FARTHER NORTH.
HISTORICALLY...SNOWFALL TENDS TO BE MAXIMIZED A FEW DEGREES NORTH
OF THE TRACK OF THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND THIS LINES
UP WELL WITH WPC SNOW PROGS SHOWING A BROAD SWATH OF 1-2 INCHES
CENTERED ALONG I-40. THIS FACTOR ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SUPPORT FROM
SREF PLUME DATA FOR CHILDRESS WARRANTED THE EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY EAST INTO CHILDRESS COUNTY. TRAVEL IMPACTS
COULD BE SPARED FROM THE WORST GRIEF AS TODAY/S SNOW APPEARS TO BE
OF THE DRIER VARIETY CONSIDERING SNOW RATIOS ARE AROUND 17:1
ACROSS OUR NWRN ZONES...WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE CONTENT FARTHER
EAST. NONETHELESS...THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON
USUALLY WARRANTS A LOWER THRESHOLD OF IMPACTS FOR THE PUBLIC.

POPS THIS MORNING WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE SWRN ZONES AND RAMPED UP
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO CAPTURE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
SEE SOME SNOW THIS AFTN...BUT THE DURATION OF THIS SHOULD BE MORE
ABBREVIATED ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA FOR REASONS ALREADY
CITED. AS THE SNOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...AGGRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE WILL
FOLLOW CLOSELY ON ITS HEELS AND ACT TO SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING
SNOW FROM NW-SE AS WE PROCEED TOWARD SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE A WINDOW FOR FLURRIES
WILL REMAIN OPEN FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BUT OVERALL THE
THEME TONIGHT IS DRY AND CLEAR WITH LIGHT NW WINDS. MIN TEMPS WERE
LOWERED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE A LIGHT SNOW COVER
SHOULD GARNER A BITTERLY COLD NIGHT WITH NEAR SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS FORTUNATELY LOOK TO HOLD JUST BELOW 10
MPH...SO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS QUIET COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM.
MAIN IMPACT OF THE SNOW THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY IS WHERE ANY SNOW PACK WILL BE LEFT. EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING...HIGH ALBEDO FROM
SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL KEEP AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN AREAS THAT HAVE BARE GROUND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER BUT UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES WHERE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. A
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. A WEAK FRONT TRIES
TO PUSH SOUTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE FOR THURSDAY BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE FRONT STALL OUT ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DIFFERENCES RETURN TO THE MODELS BY THURSDAY AS
THE GFS DEVELOPS A SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WINGS OUT ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH BROADER AND WEAKER SHORTWAVE
ABOUT THE SAME TIME. THIS LOOKS TO HELP PUSH ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN SOME FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY DEVELOPS RETURN FLOW
AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS.

NEXT WEEKEND REMAINS UNSETTLED IN THE FORECAST AS THE ECMWF BRINGS
A CLOSED LOW OUT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER WITH THE WAVE ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE
CAN GET MOISTURE RETURN BACK ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS SLOW ENOUGH...WE MAY SEE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CAPROCK. SUPERBLEND OF MODEL DATA
DROPPED IN SOME LOW END POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
FOR SATURDAY AND CANNOT ARGUE AGAINST IT BUT DID TAPER BACK POPS
BELOW MENTION FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS BETTER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THEN.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  10  37  15  45 /  90   0   0   0   0
TULIA         24  12  36  18  46 /  90   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     25  15  37  20  46 /  90   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     26  15  39  20  46 /  70   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       26  16  39  22  46 /  70   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  19  40  22  46 /  30   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    29  18  40  22  46 /  40   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     27  17  36  22  50 /  90   0   0   0   0
SPUR          28  17  40  24  49 /  50   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     31  20  42  24  50 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>031.

&&

$$

93/99
167
FXUS64 KLUB 161135
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
535 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND CULMINATE WITH UP TO A
COUPLE HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTN AT BOTH LBB AND CDS. INSERTED
A SHORT TEMPO MENTION AT LBB BEGINNING AT 21Z WHEN A BAND OF
DIMINISHING SNOW IS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL. ALTHOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS HERE SHOULD BE UNDER AN INCH...AN AIRPORT WX
WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY IF LATER FORECASTS DEEM NECESSARY. CDS
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF AN INCH OF SNOW BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
AFTER SUNSET AND RETURNS CONDS EVERYWHERE TO SKC AND VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTINUED TO SPILL SOUTH THIS MORNING
FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRUNT OF THE CWA WILL END
UP RECORDING MIDNIGHT HIGHS FOR THE DATE AS WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND
FALLING TEMPS THROUGH 18Z KEEP HIGHS SOME 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A FAIRLY STOUT TROUGH AT 08Z
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS COMPLETE WITH A REGION OF SHARPENING
DIFFLUENCE AND T-STORMS NEAR SHIPROCK/NM. FAVORABLE UL DIVERGENCE
ACCOMPANYING A 100+ KNOT JET CORE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND REACH OUR DOMAIN AROUND 18Z...
HOWEVER THE TROUGH WILL SHALLOW OUT AND WEAKEN DURING THIS TIME
WHICH PRESENTS SOME CONCERN AS TO THE LONGEVITY OF ANY SNOW
THEREAFTER. DESPITE THIS TREND...MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT DEEP ASCENT IN WILL UNFOLD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BEFORE THE TROUGH ACCELERATES OUT
OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AHEAD OF SHARP MID-LEVEL DRYING.

COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN ERN NM THIS MORNING AND INCREASING COVERAGE
OF VIRGA ECHOES TOWARD TUCUMCARI CONFIRM TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS
INCREASING IN EARNEST. THIS LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD
REACH OUR NWRN ZONES IN THE COMING HOURS IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES
OR VERY LIGHT SNOW. BY MID/LATE MORNING...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
DENDRITIC LAYER SATURATING TO DEPTHS AS DEEP AS 8K FEET AT FRIONA
COINCIDENT WITH THE GREATEST DYNAMIC FORCING. ADDITIONALLY...FN
FORCING AROUND THE 700MB LAYER COULD YIELD A FEW SEGMENTS OF
ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE NE- SW AXIS OF
HEIGHT FALLS WILL ADVANCE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROWING BAND OF SNOW AS
BACKGROUND ASCENT GRADUALLY WANES IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING
TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...THE CORE OF THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX IS
PROGGED TO TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 114 CORRIDOR WHICH
SHOULD PRESENT A FOCUSED AREA OF LIFT FARTHER NORTH.
HISTORICALLY...SNOWFALL TENDS TO BE MAXIMIZED A FEW DEGREES NORTH
OF THE TRACK OF THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND THIS LINES
UP WELL WITH WPC SNOW PROGS SHOWING A BROAD SWATH OF 1-2 INCHES
CENTERED ALONG I-40. THIS FACTOR ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SUPPORT FROM
SREF PLUME DATA FOR CHILDRESS WARRANTED THE EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY EAST INTO CHILDRESS COUNTY. TRAVEL IMPACTS
COULD BE SPARED FROM THE WORST GRIEF AS TODAY/S SNOW APPEARS TO BE
OF THE DRIER VARIETY CONSIDERING SNOW RATIOS ARE AROUND 17:1
ACROSS OUR NWRN ZONES...WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE CONTENT FARTHER
EAST. NONETHELESS...THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON
USUALLY WARRANTS A LOWER THRESHOLD OF IMPACTS FOR THE PUBLIC.

POPS THIS MORNING WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE SWRN ZONES AND RAMPED UP
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO CAPTURE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
SEE SOME SNOW THIS AFTN...BUT THE DURATION OF THIS SHOULD BE MORE
ABBREVIATED ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA FOR REASONS ALREADY
CITED. AS THE SNOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...AGGRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE WILL
FOLLOW CLOSELY ON ITS HEELS AND ACT TO SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING
SNOW FROM NW-SE AS WE PROCEED TOWARD SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE A WINDOW FOR FLURRIES
WILL REMAIN OPEN FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BUT OVERALL THE
THEME TONIGHT IS DRY AND CLEAR WITH LIGHT NW WINDS. MIN TEMPS WERE
LOWERED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE A LIGHT SNOW COVER
SHOULD GARNER A BITTERLY COLD NIGHT WITH NEAR SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS FORTUNATELY LOOK TO HOLD JUST BELOW 10
MPH...SO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS QUIET COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM.
MAIN IMPACT OF THE SNOW THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY IS WHERE ANY SNOW PACK WILL BE LEFT. EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING...HIGH ALBEDO FROM
SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL KEEP AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN AREAS THAT HAVE BARE GROUND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER BUT UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES WHERE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. A
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. A WEAK FRONT TRIES
TO PUSH SOUTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE FOR THURSDAY BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE FRONT STALL OUT ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DIFFERENCES RETURN TO THE MODELS BY THURSDAY AS
THE GFS DEVELOPS A SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WINGS OUT ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH BROADER AND WEAKER SHORTWAVE
ABOUT THE SAME TIME. THIS LOOKS TO HELP PUSH ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN SOME FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY DEVELOPS RETURN FLOW
AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS.

NEXT WEEKEND REMAINS UNSETTLED IN THE FORECAST AS THE ECMWF BRINGS
A CLOSED LOW OUT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER WITH THE WAVE ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE
CAN GET MOISTURE RETURN BACK ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS SLOW ENOUGH...WE MAY SEE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CAPROCK. SUPERBLEND OF MODEL DATA
DROPPED IN SOME LOW END POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
FOR SATURDAY AND CANNOT ARGUE AGAINST IT BUT DID TAPER BACK POPS
BELOW MENTION FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS BETTER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THEN.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  10  37  15  45 /  90   0   0   0   0
TULIA         24  12  36  18  46 /  90   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     25  15  37  20  46 /  90   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     26  15  39  20  46 /  70   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       26  16  39  22  46 /  70   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  19  40  22  46 /  30   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    29  18  40  22  46 /  40   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     27  17  36  22  50 /  90   0   0   0   0
SPUR          28  17  40  24  49 /  50   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     31  20  42  24  50 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>031.

&&

$$

93
806
FXUS64 KLUB 161030
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
430 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTINUED TO SPILL SOUTH THIS MORNING
FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRUNT OF THE CWA WILL END
UP RECORDING MIDNIGHT HIGHS FOR THE DATE AS WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND
FALLING TEMPS THROUGH 18Z KEEP HIGHS SOME 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A FAIRLY STOUT TROUGH AT 08Z
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS COMPLETE WITH A REGION OF SHARPENING
DIFFLUENCE AND T-STORMS NEAR SHIPROCK/NM. FAVORABLE UL DIVERGENCE
ACCOMPANYING A 100+ KNOT JET CORE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND REACH OUR DOMAIN AROUND 18Z...
HOWEVER THE TROUGH WILL SHALLOW OUT AND WEAKEN DURING THIS TIME
WHICH PRESENTS SOME CONCERN AS TO THE LONGEVITY OF ANY SNOW
THEREAFTER. DESPITE THIS TREND...MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT DEEP ASCENT IN WILL UNFOLD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BEFORE THE TROUGH ACCELERATES OUT
OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AHEAD OF SHARP MID-LEVEL DRYING.

COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN ERN NM THIS MORNING AND INCREASING COVERAGE
OF VIRGA ECHOES TOWARD TUCUMCARI CONFIRM TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS
INCREASING IN EARNEST. THIS LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD
REACH OUR NWRN ZONES IN THE COMING HOURS IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES
OR VERY LIGHT SNOW. BY MID/LATE MORNING...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
DENDRITIC LAYER SATURATING TO DEPTHS AS DEEP AS 8K FEET AT FRIONA
COINCIDENT WITH THE GREATEST DYNAMIC FORCING. ADDITIONALLY...FN
FORCING AROUND THE 700MB LAYER COULD YIELD A FEW SEGMENTS OF
ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE NE- SW AXIS OF
HEIGHT FALLS WILL ADVANCE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROWING BAND OF SNOW AS
BACKGROUND ASCENT GRADUALLY WANES IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING
TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...THE CORE OF THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX IS
PROGGED TO TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 114 CORRIDOR WHICH
SHOULD PRESENT A FOCUSED AREA OF LIFT FARTHER NORTH.
HISTORICALLY...SNOWFALL TENDS TO BE MAXIMIZED A FEW DEGREES NORTH
OF THE TRACK OF THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND THIS LINES
UP WELL WITH WPC SNOW PROGS SHOWING A BROAD SWATH OF 1-2 INCHES
CENTERED ALONG I-40. THIS FACTOR ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SUPPORT FROM
SREF PLUME DATA FOR CHILDRESS WARRANTED THE EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY EAST INTO CHILDRESS COUNTY. TRAVEL IMPACTS
COULD BE SPARED FROM THE WORST GRIEF AS TODAY/S SNOW APPEARS TO BE
OF THE DRIER VARIETY CONSIDERING SNOW RATIOS ARE AROUND 17:1
ACROSS OUR NWRN ZONES...WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE CONTENT FARTHER
EAST. NONETHELESS...THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON
USUALLY WARRANTS A LOWER THRESHOLD OF IMPACTS FOR THE PUBLIC.

POPS THIS MORNING WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE SWRN ZONES AND RAMPED UP
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO CAPTURE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
SEE SOME SNOW THIS AFTN...BUT THE DURATION OF THIS SHOULD BE MORE
ABBREVIATED ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA FOR REASONS ALREADY
CITED. AS THE SNOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...AGGRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE WILL
FOLLOW CLOSELY ON ITS HEELS AND ACT TO SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING
SNOW FROM NW-SE AS WE PROCEED TOWARD SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE A WINDOW FOR FLURRIES
WILL REMAIN OPEN FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BUT OVERALL THE
THEME TONIGHT IS DRY AND CLEAR WITH LIGHT NW WINDS. MIN TEMPS WERE
LOWERED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE A LIGHT SNOW COVER
SHOULD GARNER A BITTERLY COLD NIGHT WITH NEAR SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS FORTUNATELY LOOK TO HOLD JUST BELOW 10
MPH...SO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS QUIET COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM.
MAIN IMPACT OF THE SNOW THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY IS WHERE ANY SNOW PACK WILL BE LEFT. EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING...HIGH ALBEDO FROM
SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL KEEP AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN AREAS THAT HAVE BARE GROUND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER BUT UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES WHERE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. A
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. A WEAK FRONT TRIES
TO PUSH SOUTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE FOR THURSDAY BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE FRONT STALL OUT ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DIFFERENCES RETURN TO THE MODELS BY THURSDAY AS
THE GFS DEVELOPS A SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WINGS OUT ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH BROADER AND WEAKER SHORTWAVE
ABOUT THE SAME TIME. THIS LOOKS TO HELP PUSH ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN SOME FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY DEVELOPS RETURN FLOW
AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS.

NEXT WEEKEND REMAINS UNSETTLED IN THE FORECAST AS THE ECMWF BRINGS
A CLOSED LOW OUT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER WITH THE WAVE ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE
CAN GET MOISTURE RETURN BACK ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS SLOW ENOUGH...WE MAY SEE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CAPROCK. SUPERBLEND OF MODEL DATA
DROPPED IN SOME LOW END POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
FOR SATURDAY AND CANNOT ARGUE AGAINST IT BUT DID TAPER BACK POPS
BELOW MENTION FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS BETTER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THEN.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  10  37  15  45 /  90   0   0   0   0
TULIA         24  12  36  18  46 /  90   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     25  15  37  20  46 /  90   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     26  15  39  20  46 /  70   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       26  16  39  22  46 /  70   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  19  40  22  46 /  30   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    29  18  40  22  46 /  40   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     27  17  36  22  50 /  90   0   0   0   0
SPUR          28  17  40  24  49 /  50   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     31  20  42  24  50 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>031.

&&

$$

93/14

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