Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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626
FXUS64 KLUB 170732
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
232 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN UA LOW NEARING THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
SENT DOWN A COLD FRONT THAT HAS ONLY RESULTED IN A NRLY WIND SHIFT
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. PER 07Z METARS...THE FRONT WAS
IMPINGING ON THE PERMIAN BASIN AND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE ITS
SWRD TREK THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FLATTENED UA RIDGE WILL PROGRESS
EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AS WELL AS THE SFC RIDGE
WHICH WILL RESULT IN NRLY WINDS VEERING TO THE ENE. THIS SLIGHT
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME MAY AID IN GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS FROM 0.50 INCHES TO 0.75 INCHES BY TONIGHT/.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH
IS MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY/S WELL ABOVE NORM TEMPS...COURTESY
OF THE COOLER AIRMASS ADVECTED IN BY THE COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH 40S EXPECTED.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT AN UA DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON SRN
CALI/NRN BAJA PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT
WHILE PROPAGATING ENE ACROSS THE DESERT SW TO ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST...AND THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN
PWATS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE MAY RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA TOMORROW. READ THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED THE MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER TROUGHS THAT COULD BRING SOME PRECIP
TO THE FCST AREA IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ALREADY HEADING EWD. DESPITE BEING SHEARED AS IT MOVES
EWD...EXPECT ENOUGH STRENGTH IN THIS TROUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE NWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA THIS WEEKEND. TIMING
APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP WITH BEST CHANCES NOW COMING SATURDAY AFTN
RATHER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FOLLOWING UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING
SEWD OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WILL APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE
SW MONDAY...ALTHOUGH ALSO WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO...LIKELY
CONFINING ANY PRECIP TO THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.

BEYOND MONDAY MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE NOTED. TEND TO FAVOR
THE EURO IN THESE SITUATIONS WHICH IS THE WETTER OF THE TWO
BETWEEN THAT AND THE GFS. WPC FAVORING THE EURO ENSEMBLE...AND
THEY HAVE RAMPED UP POPS AS A RESULT. NOT SURE THAT THE PATTERN
FAVORS POPS AS HIGH AS THEY ARE INDICATING ATTM...BUT CERTAINLY
LOOKS FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS IN THE WEDNESDAY THRU
THURSDAY PERIOD ABOUT 10 PCT ACROSS THE BOARD.

YESTERDAY SHOULD BE THE END OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE...ALTHOUGH NOT COLD OUTBREAKS EXPECTED EITHER.
WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...
IF NOT PRECIP...SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  43  66  45  73 /   0  10  30  10  10
TULIA         73  44  67  46  75 /   0   0  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  45  67  47  73 /   0   0  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     76  45  67  48  74 /   0  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       77  47  68  49  74 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   79  48  70  49  74 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    78  47  69  49  74 /   0  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     80  49  71  48  76 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          78  48  72  50  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  50  73  51  78 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07

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