Area Forecast Discussion
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301
FXUS64 KLUB 121224 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
624 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO
MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
AM.

KCDS HAS REMAINED MIRED IN DENSE FOG FOR MUCH OF THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND THE MEMPHIS SHERIFF/S OFFICE CONFIRMED DENSE FOG
THERE. HENCE WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE NORTHEAST ZONES. CALLS FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH INCLUDING TO THE DICKENS AND ASPERMONT SHERIFF OFFICES
REVEALED ONLY LIGHT FOG THERE...SO WE HAVE OMITTED THEM FROM THE
ADVISORY. THE DENSITY OF THE FOG UP ON THE CAPROCK HAS VARIED
QUITE A BIT...BUT AT LEAST SOME SITES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CWA
CONTINUE TO REPORT OCCASIONAL DENSE FOG. GIVEN THIS AND THE NEARLY
SATURATED CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WOULD EXPECTED AT LEAST AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
CAPROCK AND WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 16Z.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS BY THE HRRR AND RAP THAT A POCKET OF DENSE
FOG COULD EVEN PERSIST UNTIL 17-18Z ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...AND
A PORTION OF THE ADVISORY MAY EVEN NEED TO BE EXTENDED SLIGHTLY IN
TIME LATER THIS MORNING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014/

AVIATION...
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TERMINALS SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND KPVW AND KLBB SHOULD
RETURN TO VFR BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON...THOUGH MVFR CIGS COULD
PERSIST AT KCDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BOUT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH POOR FLYING WEATHER RETURNING TO
THE TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WERE AGAIN VISITING THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER IN
THE REGION. DENSE FOG WAS NOTED AT KGNC...KHOB AND KCVN...THOUGH AS
OF 09Z ONLY LIGHT FOG /VISIBILITIES AROUND 4 SM/ WAS PRESENT AT KLBB
AND KPVW. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP DO CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
DENSE FOG WILL EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND THIS SEEMS VALID GIVEN THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WITHIN LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT
CLOUD COVER AND FOG COVERAGE IS NOT AS EXTENSIVE IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS...THOUGH KCDS HAS BEEN OCCASIONALLY REPORTING DENSE FOG.
GIVEN THIS...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW
/ON THE CAPROCK THROUGH 10 AM/...BUT WILL REASSESS AROUND 6 AM AND
ADJUST IF NEEDED. THE FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT/THIN BY MID/LATE
MORNING...WITH SUN RETURNING TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA BY
MID-AFTERNOON. OBVIOUSLY...THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE FOG AND
CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE EXACTLY HOW WARM EACH LOCATION GETS...BUT
MOST SPOTS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

A RELATIVELY NARROW BUT HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH OKLAHOMA TODAY AND THEN
INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON WEST TEXAS WEATHER THOUGH
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW COUPLED WITH THE LONG NIGHTS
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT. THE MOIST CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD FOR MID-DECEMBER...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S...THOUGH THE NORTHWEST ZONES COULD DIP IN THE 30S.

LONG TERM...
.A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO WEST
TEXAS FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK OR SO...

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DOUSING MUCH OF CALIFORNIA
WILL BE APPROACHING WEST TEXAS BY LATE SATURDAY. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE FROM NRN NM EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OKLA AND NRN TX
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LIFT FROM THIS WAVE WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO A RAGGED SQUALL-LINE AS
AN INBOUND PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT FOCUSES THE FORCING. WE HAVE
INCREASED AND EXPANDED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. STRONG WIND SHEAR
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND
SOME HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE ACTIVITY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT
OF PRECIP THOUGH...AS THE DRY SLOT SWIFTLY WORKS IN ACROSS WEST
TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY
AFTERNOON AND IT APPEARS THAT ANY WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY BEHIND THE PACIFIC-
FRONT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL BE
MOVING FROM THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER AS EARLY AS
LATE WEDNESDAY. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL SURROUNDS THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM....BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE
A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RAIN COULD MATERIALIZE CENTERED ON
THURSDAY...AND WE/VE ADDED CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR
MOST OF THE FA. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY
THREATEN THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        68  38  67  41  56 /   0   0   0  50  20
TULIA         66  44  69  47  58 /   0   0   0  60  30
PLAINVIEW     65  45  68  48  59 /   0   0   0  50  30
LEVELLAND     67  43  69  47  59 /   0   0   0  50  20
LUBBOCK       66  47  68  50  61 /   0   0   0  50  20
DENVER CITY   67  44  68  45  59 /   0   0   0  40  20
BROWNFIELD    67  45  69  48  61 /   0   0   0  40  20
CHILDRESS     66  49  67  53  66 /   0  10  10  40  70
SPUR          66  49  68  52  65 /   0   0  10  30  40
ASPERMONT     67  51  69  54  68 /  10   0  10  30  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>036-039>041.

&&

$$

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