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673
FXUS64 KLUB 011122 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A
REMOTE CHANCE KCDS COULD SEE SOME ISOLATE SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. SOUTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP IN SPEED BY LATE MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO DECREASE
BY THIS EVENING.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
VERY WEAK MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND IN PLACE ACROSS ALL BUT THE
ROLLING PLAINS.  LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OFF THE CAPROCK HAS HELPED
TO KEEP LOW TO MID 50 DEWPOINTS IN PLACE WHILE WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT STILL HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS ALSO HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST
UNDER 70 DEGREES EARLY THIS MORNING. ALOFT...A SLOW MOVING
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SECOND SHORTWAVE KICKING OUT ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP HELPING WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  DEEP MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH READING SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
SAW ON TUESDAY.  MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OR EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA EVEN THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE TO NO
CAP OVER THE REGION AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG.  WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO BUT LACK OF
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND VERY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS KEEP THIS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED.  SAME STORY FOR LOW TEMPS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF ON THE HOT...DRY AND WINDY SIDE AS
WESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE IN ADVANCE OF A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS. THESE
DRY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL SECURE AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S. UNFORTUNATELY...THE HOT...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO LIKELY CONSPIRE TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OR ALL OF THE CWA /SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
DETAILS/. WINDS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 20-
30 MPH RANGE /SUSTAINED/...THOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY
AS THE LATEST GFS IS TRYING TO ADVERTISE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
WINDS...PERHAPS THREATENING LOW-END ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE CAPROCK.
THESE WINDS COULD KICK UP A LITTLE BLOWING DUST TOO...THOUGH IT
SHOULD BE PRETTY MINIMAL ASSUMING SUSTAINED SPEEDS DO REMAIN AOB 30
MPH.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW EARLY FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE
EMERGES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE FROPA SHOULD BE A DRY
ONE...THOUGH IT COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF STRATUS IF THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND COOLING. MORE GUSTY WINDS /SUSTAINED AT 20-30
MPH/ WILL ALSO FOLLOW ON FRIDAY...THOUGH THIS TIME THEY WILL BE FROM
THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY...ONLY IN THE 60S AT MOST SPOTS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN...AND THIS WILL
MEAN A COOL START TO THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS EARLY SATURDAY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

RETURN FLOW WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. INITIALLY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TOUGH TO
COME BY...BUT IT SHOULD IMPROVE BY SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS...AND WE COULD EVEN SEE A BOUT OF LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE OR TWO MAY RACE BY IN
THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE LATEST NWP HAS
TRENDED WEAKER AND LESS COHERENT WITH THE WEEKEND
DISTURBANCE/S/...THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME INDICATION A FEW
SHOWERS COULD VISIT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND WE
HAVE ACCEPTED THE BLENDED POPS THAT REFLECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THEN.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH AN OSCILLATING DRYLINE IN THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY WARM IN THIS PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK TO AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. IN ADDITION...THE DRYLINE
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE DAY CONVECTION...THOUGH AT THIS POINT
IT STILL APPEARS IT MAY RESIDE JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA BY PEAK
HEATING. INSTEAD...DRY...WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE
DRYLINE WILL AGAIN ACT TO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER. OVERALL...ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
BORDERLINE WITH 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT WEST OF A TULIA TO
PLAINS LINE. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BUT THEY WILL BE
INCONSISTENT IN TIME. PLAN ON ISSUING A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE. EAST OF THAT
LINE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT AND WIND
SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LOWER.

THURSDAY WILL BRING MORE WARMTH AND EVEN DRIER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...VALID THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AT 15-20 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH
RH VALUES DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THE CAPROCK...WITH TEENS
LIKELY IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. THESE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30
MPH...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY UP ON THE CAPROCK. OFF THE CAPROCK...WINDS
MAY BE A LITTLE LIGHTER AND HUMIDITIES A LITTLE HIGHER MAKING IT LESS
CERTAIN THAT PROLONGED RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL AND WE HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THE
ENTIRE AREA IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THURSDAY EVENING AS WIND
TEMPORARILY WEAKEN...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW EARLY FRIDAY
WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. MUCH COOLER AIR AND
RELATIVELY HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM THE HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...THOUGH THEY COULD RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        84  45  83  40 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         86  47  85  44 /  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     86  48  87  44 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     86  49  87  45 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       87  50  89  46 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   84  50  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    84  51  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     89  57  91  51 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          85  56  91  53 /  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     88  61  93  57 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$
194
FXUS64 KLUB 010902
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
VERY WEAK MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND IN PLACE ACROSS ALL BUT THE
ROLLING PLAINS.  LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OFF THE CAPROCK HAS HELPED
TO KEEP LOW TO MID 50 DEWPOINTS IN PLACE WHILE WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT STILL HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS ALSO HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST
UNDER 70 DEGREES EARLY THIS MORNING. ALOFT...A SLOW MOVING
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SECOND SHORTWAVE KICKING OUT ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP HELPING WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  DEEP MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH READING SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
SAW ON TUESDAY.  MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OR EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA EVEN THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE TO NO
CAP OVER THE REGION AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG.  WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO BUT LACK OF
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND VERY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS KEEP THIS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED.  SAME STORY FOR LOW TEMPS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING.

JORDAN

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF ON THE HOT...DRY AND WINDY SIDE AS
WESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE IN ADVANCE OF A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS. THESE
DRY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL SECURE AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S. UNFORTUNATELY...THE HOT...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO LIKELY CONSPIRE TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OR ALL OF THE CWA /SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
DETAILS/. WINDS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 20-
30 MPH RANGE /SUSTAINED/...THOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY
AS THE LATEST GFS IS TRYING TO ADVERTISE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
WINDS...PERHAPS THREATENING LOW-END ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE CAPROCK.
THESE WINDS COULD KICK UP A LITTLE BLOWING DUST TOO...THOUGH IT
SHOULD BE PRETTY MINIMAL ASSUMING SUSTAINED SPEEDS DO REMAIN AOB 30
MPH.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW EARLY FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE
EMERGES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE FROPA SHOULD BE A DRY
ONE...THOUGH IT COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF STRATUS IF THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND COOLING. MORE GUSTY WINDS /SUSTAINED AT 20-30
MPH/ WILL ALSO FOLLOW ON FRIDAY...THOUGH THIS TIME THEY WILL BE FROM
THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY...ONLY IN THE 60S AT MOST SPOTS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN...AND THIS WILL
MEAN A COOL START TO THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS EARLY SATURDAY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

RETURN FLOW WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. INITIALLY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TOUGH TO
COME BY...BUT IT SHOULD IMPROVE BY SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS...AND WE COULD EVEN SEE A BOUT OF LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE OR TWO MAY RACE BY IN
THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE LATEST NWP HAS
TRENDED WEAKER AND LESS COHERENT WITH THE WEEKEND
DISTURBANCE/S/...THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME INDICATION A FEW
SHOWERS COULD VISIT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND WE
HAVE ACCEPTED THE BLENDED POPS THAT REFLECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THEN.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH AN OSCILLATING DRYLINE IN THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY WARM IN THIS PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK TO AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. IN ADDITION...THE DRYLINE
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE DAY CONVECTION...THOUGH AT THIS POINT
IT STILL APPEARS IT MAY RESIDE JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA BY PEAK
HEATING. INSTEAD...DRY...WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE
DRYLINE WILL AGAIN ACT TO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER. OVERALL...ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
BORDERLINE WITH 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT WEST OF A TULIA TO
PLAINS LINE. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BUT THEY WILL BE
INCONSISTENT IN TIME. PLAN ON ISSUING A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE. EAST OF THAT
LINE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT AND WIND
SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LOWER.

THURSDAY WILL BRING MORE WARMTH AND EVEN DRIER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...VALID THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AT 15-20 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH
RH VALUES DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THE CAPROCK...WITH TEENS
LIKELY IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. THESE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30
MPH...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY UP ON THE CAPROCK. OFF THE CAPROCK...WINDS
MAY BE A LITTLE LIGHTER AND HUMIDITIES A LITTLE HIGHER MAKING IT LESS
CERTAIN THAT PROLONGED RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL AND WE HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THE
ENTIRE AREA IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THURSDAY EVENING AS WIND
TEMPORARILY WEAKEN...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW EARLY FRIDAY
WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. MUCH COOLER AIR AND
RELATIVELY HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM THE HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...THOUGH THEY COULD RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        84  45  83  40 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         86  47  85  44 /  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     86  48  87  44 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     86  49  87  45 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       87  50  89  46 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   84  50  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    84  51  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     89  57  91  51 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          85  56  91  53 /  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     88  61  93  57 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

14/23
960
FXUS64 KLUB 010448
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSING EARLY TO THE SOUTH WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ROLLING PLAINS. STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY
WILL PULL SURFACE TROUGH BACK TO THE WEST AND WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS KLBB AND KPVW...SOUTHERLY WINDS KCDS.
SURFACE DRY-LINE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF KCDS LATE
WEDNESDAY. VFR DOMINATING. RMCQUEEN

$$

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH OF A CUMULUS FIELD YET THIS AFTN WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWING SOME WEST OF LUBBOCK TOWARD BOTH CLOVIS AND HOBBS.
ENVIRONMENT IS ONE THAT IS WEAKLY FORCED WITH THE MAIN LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OCCURRING OVER
NERN SONORA AND NRN CHIHUAHUA. AT THE SFC A WEAK LOW REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE BUT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH WITH
TIME. DRY AIR HAS WORKED INTO AREAS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE LOW WHILE MODEST SOUTH WINDS HELPING KEEP LOW TO MID 50S DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS. MEANWHILE A FIELD OF THICK
CIRRUS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE OVER THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NORTHEAST THRU THE EVENING.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE LINGERING NEAR VALUES OF 1500 J/KG SERN
ZONES ALTHOUGH CIN ON THE ORDER OF 50-100 J/KG. REAL DOUBT HOW
MUCH THE CAP WILL BE ERODED WITH THE THICKENING CIRRUS AS WELL AS
THE DIURNAL HALT TO TEMP INCREASE NOT TOO FAR AWAY. WITH OBVIOUS
WEAK FORCING HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...IN LINE WITH RECENT HI-RES RUNS. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
TO REACH THE GROUND WILL BE SERN ZONES AND WILL LIMIT SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION TO THAT AREA THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT
ACROSS SW TEXAS TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR THUNDER ACTIVITY
MOVE INTO THE SERN ZONES AND WILL KEEP THAT MENTION AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE A BETTER DEFINED DRYLINE MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FCST AREA TO A LOCATION NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY MID-
AFTN...BUT AGAIN QUALITY OF MOISTURE AND ABILITY TO ERODE THE CAP
THE BIGGEST QUESTIONS ATTM. BETTER INDICATIONS FOR THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH FROM THE ERN PANHANDLE NWD INTO THE CNTL
HIGH PLAINS WITH THE PASSING OF AN UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE
WARM AGAIN...IN LINE WITH HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM...
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WEDNESDAY EVENING IN WAKE OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP FOR THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...SUBSEQUENTLY PRIMING A
DRY...HOT...AND WINDY DAY. BASE OF THIS FEATURE REMAINING NEAR OR
WEST OF THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH PEAK HEATING WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS
AT BAY COMPARED TO A POSITIONING NEAR WESTERN KANSAS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT SPEEDS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE. THIS
STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 80S AND 90S AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TAKE
SHAPE /PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW/.

4 CORNERS SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY
FRIDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS OF
NEAR 15-20 MPH...SOME LOW STRATUS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 60S LOOK TO BE THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM AS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE LOOKS FAR TOO ANEMIC TO WARRANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW ATTEMPTS TO
DEVELOP LOCALLY WITH AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF BACKING FLOW ALOFT.
KEPT A SLIM MENTION OF STORMS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WITH A POTENTIAL
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE APPROACHING IN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO EVENTUALLY PULL THIS ALTOGETHER UNLESS A
BETTER SIGNAL COMES OUT IN SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.

FLOW WILL FURTHER BACK/STRENGTHEN SUNDAY DOWNSTREAM OF A PACIFIC
NORTHWEST UPPER LOW AS SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE FRONT RANGE LIKELY
KEEPS THE DRYLINE EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY FOR NOW AS TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK INTO THE 80S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY THEN
ATTEMPT TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AROUND MIDWEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AS MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE MID TEENS WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK WITH ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AS WARMER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS TAKE SHAPE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ASSESS
POTENTIAL FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  85  47  82 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         53  86  50  83 /  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     53  86  50  84 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     53  86  51  87 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       55  87  54  88 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  85  52  85 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    54  85  52  87 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     58  89  57  86 /  20  10  10   0
SPUR          57  87  57  90 /  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     61  87  64  92 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
885
FXUS64 KLUB 312035
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
335 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH OF A CUMULUS FIELD YET THIS AFTN WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWING SOME WEST OF LUBBOCK TOWARD BOTH CLOVIS AND HOBBS.
ENVIRONMENT IS ONE THAT IS WEAKLY FORCED WITH THE MAIN LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OCCURRING OVER
NERN SONORA AND NRN CHIHUAHUA. AT THE SFC A WEAK LOW REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE BUT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH WITH
TIME. DRY AIR HAS WORKED INTO AREAS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE LOW WHILE MODEST SOUTH WINDS HELPING KEEP LOW TO MID 50S DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS. MEANWHILE A FIELD OF THICK
CIRRUS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE OVER THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NORTHEAST THRU THE EVENING.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE LINGERING NEAR VALUES OF 1500 J/KG SERN
ZONES ALTHOUGH CIN ON THE ORDER OF 50-100 J/KG. REAL DOUBT HOW
MUCH THE CAP WILL BE ERODED WITH THE THICKENING CIRRUS AS WELL AS
THE DIURNAL HALT TO TEMP INCREASE NOT TOO FAR AWAY. WITH OBVIOUS
WEAK FORCING HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...IN LINE WITH RECENT HI-RES RUNS. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
TO REACH THE GROUND WILL BE SERN ZONES AND WILL LIMIT SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION TO THAT AREA THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT
ACROSS SW TEXAS TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR THUNDER ACTIVITY
MOVE INTO THE SERN ZONES AND WILL KEEP THAT MENTION AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE A BETTER DEFINED DRYLINE MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FCST AREA TO A LOCATION NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY MID-
AFTN...BUT AGAIN QUALITY OF MOISTURE AND ABILITY TO ERODE THE CAP
THE BIGGEST QUESTIONS ATTM. BETTER INDICATIONS FOR THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH FROM THE ERN PANHANDLE NWD INTO THE CNTL
HIGH PLAINS WITH THE PASSING OF AN UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE
WARM AGAIN...IN LINE WITH HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTN.

.LONG TERM...
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WEDNESDAY EVENING IN WAKE OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP FOR THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...SUBSEQUENTLY PRIMING A
DRY...HOT...AND WINDY DAY. BASE OF THIS FEATURE REMAINING NEAR OR
WEST OF THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH PEAK HEATING WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS
AT BAY COMPARED TO A POSITIONING NEAR WESTERN KANSAS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT SPEEDS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE. THIS
STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 80S AND 90S AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TAKE
SHAPE /PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW/.

4 CORNERS SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY
FRIDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS OF
NEAR 15-20 MPH...SOME LOW STRATUS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 60S LOOK TO BE THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM AS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE LOOKS FAR TOO ANEMIC TO WARRANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW ATTEMPTS TO
DEVELOP LOCALLY WITH AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF BACKING FLOW ALOFT.
KEPT A SLIM MENTION OF STORMS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WITH A POTENTIAL
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE APPROACHING IN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO EVENTUALLY PULL THIS ALTOGETHER UNLESS A
BETTER SIGNAL COMES OUT IN SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.

FLOW WILL FURTHER BACK/STRENGTHEN SUNDAY DOWNSTREAM OF A PACIFIC
NORTHWEST UPPER LOW AS SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE FRONT RANGE LIKELY
KEEPS THE DRYLINE EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY FOR NOW AS TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK INTO THE 80S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY THEN
ATTEMPT TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AROUND MIDWEEK.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AS MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE MID TEENS WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK WITH ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AS WARMER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS TAKE SHAPE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ASSESS
POTENTIAL FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  85  47  82 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         53  86  50  83 /  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     53  86  50  84 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     53  86  51  87 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       55  87  54  88 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  85  52  85 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    54  85  52  87 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     58  89  57  86 /  20  10  10   0
SPUR          57  87  57  90 /  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     61  87  64  92 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/31
790
FXUS64 KLUB 311707
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. SFC WINDS ARE WEAK WITH A LOW
CENTERED OVER IN THE SRN PANHANDLE. WINDS REMAIN VEERED FROM SW
ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH TO NW AND NORTH ACROSS AREAS TO THE WEST
AND NORTH OF LUBBOCK. SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE SOUTH AND
EAST WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH.
THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGH-
BASED THUNDER DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FAVORING AREAS WITH THE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NO CHANGES TO FCST ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES WILL
BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE CERTAINLY NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INSERT ANY MENTION INTO THE 18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

AVIATION...
A WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 30 KTS AT 3000 FT AGL WILL CAUSE
SOME CHOP DURING TAKEOFFS AND LANDINGS BEFORE IT DIMINISHES
BETWEEN 13 AND 14 UTC. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE OF -TSRA IN THE
VICINITY OF ALL TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT AS WELL. KCDS HAS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF A T-STORM NEARBY. THE HIGH-BASED T-STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS A
CHALLENGING ONE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A SMALL
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS...QUITE A BIT OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING NEWD
ACROSS NRN MX INTO SW TX. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EWD TODAY...A 250MB
JET MAX WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE ENTRANCE
REGION MAY NOT BE TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER-LOW...WATER VAPOR AND PV
ANALYSIS SHOWS A REGION OF STRETCHED VORTICITY FROM NRN AZ THROUGH
THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH A COUPLE SMALL-SCALE ROTATIONS LENDING
SOME WEAK LIFT...AND SUPPORTING ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE SE TX
PANHANDLE.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A STRONG SWERLY LLJ HAS HELPED BRING
MOISTURE BACK INTO MUCH THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...AND THE SURFACE WIND
FIELD WAS WEAK AND CHAOTIC.

AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF EL PASO TODAY...WE EXPECT WEAK
TROUGHINESS AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO MIGRATE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK LOW-LVL CYCLONE SLOWLY
MOVING SOUTH OR SW FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS SHOULD ROUGHLY REFLECT THIS...WITH N-NW
WINDS INITIALLY PUSHING DRY AIR INTO MUCH OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THEN SOME MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND BACK
INTO THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY.
A DRYLINE...IF ONE ACTUALLY FORMS UP...MAY NOT HAVE A TYPICAL N-S
ORIENTATION. MEANWHILE...A WELL-MIXED CBL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SURFACE
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S...LCL/S AROUND 600 MB WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATE AND NO CINH REMAINING BY MID-AFTERNOON. MLCAPE WILL BE
LOW...AROUND 500 J/KG...BUT DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. WE
EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED T-STORMS TO FORM IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...PERHAPS FIRST ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE
TRANS-PECOS VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
FIRST REACHED. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD E-NEWD. WE
ANTICIPATE THAT DRY MICROBURSTS AND DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ANY RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY.
FARTHER TO THE EAST...CAPES MAY RANGE FROM ABOUT 1000 J/KG OFF THE
CAPROCK TO NEARLY 2000 J/KG OUT IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
/NEAR OUR CWA BORDER/...DEPENDING ON IF WE CAN MAINTAIN AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS IN THAT AREA. IF THESE CAPES DO
VERIFY...THERE WILL BE GREATER POTENTIAL MORE STORM COVERAGE...
ORGANIZATION AND LONGEVITY...WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS.

THE WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...AND KEEP A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED STORMS GOING AT LEAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE EARLY MORNING AS WELL...MAINLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE CAPROCK.

LONG TERM...
THE DISTURBANCE DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY EMERGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SECOND WAVE AND
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH AN
ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA. THE
LATEST NWP HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST WITH THE LATE DAY
DRYLINE POSITION...PLACING IT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK. THERE IS A CHANCE ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE DRYLINE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...THOUGH A WEAK
CAP...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE RELATIVELY LACK OF LARGE
SCALE SUPPORT CALL INTO QUESTION WHETHER CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AT
ALL LOCALLY...AND MOST NWP KEEP OUR CWA DRY. THAT SAID...IF
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000+ J/KG AND 0-6 KM
SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS COULD SUPPORT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. WE
HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA SEVERAL
PERCENTAGE POINTS...INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE...THOUGH WE
HAVE KEPT THE EXPLICIT MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
SURFACE ON THURSDAY...SHUNTING THE MOISTURE AND ANY LOW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FURTHER EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE CWA. INSTEAD...GUSTY AND DRY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO SLIP IN AND PROVIDE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS. COOLER AIR WILL THEN
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AFTER
EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK BELOW AVERAGE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS THEN PROGGED TO QUICKLY APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY WHILE RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS
NEAR THE SURFACE. IT DOES APPEAR MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE
LIMITED...BUT ENOUGH MID/UPPER SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPOTS OFF THE CAPROCK
MOST FAVORED. A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS THEN PROJECTED
TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE LONG TERM AS A
BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
QUICK WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. A DRYLINE SHOULD ALSO SETUP SOMEWHERE IN THE
REGION...THOUGH IF IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE ABLE TO HOLD IN OUR EASTERN ZONES DURING
PEAK HEATING REMAIN IN DOUBT AND A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED BEYOND SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH AMBIENT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED T-STORMS...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG AND ERRATIC DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THIS AREA.

WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE DRYLINE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE CAPROCK. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE MARGINAL ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH RH VALUES WILL
LIKELY DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT. THURSDAY WILL BRING MORE WARMTH AND
EVEN DRIER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WILL BRING COOLER AIR AND A
TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM THE HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  47  86  45 /  10  10   0  10
TULIA         84  51  87  48 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     85  51  86  48 /  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     85  51  87  49 /  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       86  53  88  52 /  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   83  52  85  50 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    84  53  86  50 /  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     89  57  89  56 /  20  20  10  10
SPUR          88  56  87  55 /  30  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     89  59  86  63 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
570
FXUS64 KLUB 311130
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
630 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...
A WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 30 KTS AT 3000 FT AGL WILL CAUSE
SOME CHOP DURING TAKEOFFS AND LANDINGS BEFORE IT DIMINISHES
BETWEEN 13 AND 14 UTC. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE OF -TSRA IN THE
VICINITY OF ALL TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT AS WELL. KCDS HAS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF A T-STORM NEARBY. THE HIGH-BASED T-STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS A
CHALLENGING ONE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A SMALL
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS...QUITE A BIT OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING NEWD
ACROSS NRN MX INTO SW TX. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EWD TODAY...A 250MB
JET MAX WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE ENTRANCE
REGION MAY NOT BE TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER-LOW...WATER VAPOR AND PV
ANALYSIS SHOWS A REGION OF STRETCHED VORTICITY FROM NRN AZ THROUGH
THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH A COUPLE SMALL-SCALE ROTATIONS LENDING
SOME WEAK LIFT...AND SUPPORTING ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE SE TX
PANHANDLE.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A STRONG SWERLY LLJ HAS HELPED BRING
MOISTURE BACK INTO MUCH THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...AND THE SURFACE WIND
FIELD WAS WEAK AND CHAOTIC.

AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF EL PASO TODAY...WE EXPECT WEAK
TROUGHINESS AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO MIGRATE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK LOW-LVL CYCLONE SLOWLY
MOVING SOUTH OR SW FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS SHOULD ROUGHLY REFLECT THIS...WITH N-NW
WINDS INITIALLY PUSHING DRY AIR INTO MUCH OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THEN SOME MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND BACK
INTO THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY.
A DRYLINE...IF ONE ACTUALLY FORMS UP...MAY NOT HAVE A TYPICAL N-S
ORIENTATION. MEANWHILE...A WELL-MIXED CBL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SURFACE
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S...LCL/S AROUND 600 MB WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATE AND NO CINH REMAINING BY MID-AFTERNOON. MLCAPE WILL BE
LOW...AROUND 500 J/KG...BUT DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. WE
EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED T-STORMS TO FORM IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...PERHAPS FIRST ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE
TRANS-PECOS VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
FIRST REACHED. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD E-NEWD. WE
ANTICIPATE THAT DRY MICROBURSTS AND DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ANY RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY.
FARTHER TO THE EAST...CAPES MAY RANGE FROM ABOUT 1000 J/KG OFF THE
CAPROCK TO NEARLY 2000 J/KG OUT IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
/NEAR OUR CWA BORDER/...DEPENDING ON IF WE CAN MAINTAIN AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS IN THAT AREA. IF THESE CAPES DO
VERIFY...THERE WILL BE GREATER POTENTIAL MORE STORM COVERAGE...
ORGANIZATION AND LONGEVITY...WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS.

THE WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...AND KEEP A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED STORMS GOING AT LEAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE EARLY MORNING AS WELL...MAINLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE CAPROCK.

LONG TERM...
THE DISTURBANCE DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY EMERGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SECOND WAVE AND
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH AN
ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA. THE
LATEST NWP HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST WITH THE LATE DAY
DRYLINE POSITION...PLACING IT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK. THERE IS A CHANCE ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE DRYLINE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...THOUGH A WEAK
CAP...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE RELATIVELY LACK OF LARGE
SCALE SUPPORT CALL INTO QUESTION WHETHER CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AT
ALL LOCALLY...AND MOST NWP KEEP OUR CWA DRY. THAT SAID...IF
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000+ J/KG AND 0-6 KM
SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS COULD SUPPORT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. WE
HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA SEVERAL
PERCENTAGE POINTS...INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE...THOUGH WE
HAVE KEPT THE EXPLICIT MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
SURFACE ON THURSDAY...SHUNTING THE MOISTURE AND ANY LOW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FURTHER EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE CWA. INSTEAD...GUSTY AND DRY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO SLIP IN AND PROVIDE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS. COOLER AIR WILL THEN
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AFTER
EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK BELOW AVERAGE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS THEN PROGGED TO QUICKLY APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY WHILE RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS
NEAR THE SURFACE. IT DOES APPEAR MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE
LIMITED...BUT ENOUGH MID/UPPER SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPOTS OFF THE CAPROCK
MOST FAVORED. A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS THEN PROJECTED
TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE LONG TERM AS A
BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
QUICK WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. A DRYLINE SHOULD ALSO SETUP SOMEWHERE IN THE
REGION...THOUGH IF IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE ABLE TO HOLD IN OUR EASTERN ZONES DURING
PEAK HEATING REMAIN IN DOUBT AND A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED BEYOND SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH AMBIENT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED T-STORMS...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG AND ERRATIC DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THIS AREA.

WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE DRYLINE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE CAPROCK. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE MARGINAL ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH RH VALUES WILL
LIKELY DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT. THURSDAY WILL BRING MORE WARMTH AND
EVEN DRIER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WILL BRING COOLER AIR AND A
TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM THE HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  47  86  45 /  10  10   0  10
TULIA         84  51  87  48 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     85  51  86  48 /  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     85  51  87  49 /  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       86  53  88  52 /  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   83  52  85  50 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    84  53  86  50 /  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     89  57  89  56 /  20  20  10  10
SPUR          88  56  87  55 /  30  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     89  59  86  63 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
069
FXUS64 KLUB 310858
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
358 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS A
CHALLENGING ONE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A SMALL
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS...QUITE A BIT OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING NEWD
ACROSS NRN MX INTO SW TX. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EWD TODAY...A 250MB
JET MAX WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE ENTRANCE
REGION MAY NOT BE TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER-LOW...WATER VAPOR AND PV
ANALYSIS SHOWS A REGION OF STRETCHED VORTICITY FROM NRN AZ THROUGH
THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH A COUPLE SMALL-SCALE ROTATIONS LENDING
SOME WEAK LIFT...AND SUPPORTING ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE SE TX
PANHANDLE.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A STRONG SWERLY LLJ HAS HELPED BRING
MOISTURE BACK INTO MUCH THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...AND THE SURFACE WIND
FIELD WAS WEAK AND CHAOTIC.

AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF EL PASO TODAY...WE EXPECT WEAK
TROUGHINESS AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO MIGRATE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK LOW-LVL CYCLONE SLOWLY
MOVING SOUTH OR SW FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS SHOULD ROUGHLY REFLECT THIS...WITH N-NW
WINDS INITIALLY PUSHING DRY AIR INTO MUCH OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THEN SOME MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND BACK
INTO THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY.
A DRYLINE...IF ONE ACTUALLY FORMS UP...MAY NOT HAVE A TYPICAL N-S
ORIENTATION. MEANWHILE...A WELL-MIXED CBL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SURFACE
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S...LCL/S AROUND 600 MB WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATE AND NO CINH REMAINING BY MID-AFTERNOON. MLCAPE WILL BE
LOW...AROUND 500 J/KG...BUT DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. WE
EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED T-STORMS TO FORM IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...PERHAPS FIRST ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE
TRANS-PECOS VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
FIRST REACHED. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD E-NEWD. WE
ANTICIPATE THAT DRY MICROBURSTS AND DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ANY RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY.
FARTHER TO THE EAST...CAPES MAY RANGE FROM ABOUT 1000 J/KG OFF THE
CAPROCK TO NEARLY 2000 J/KG OUT IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
/NEAR OUR CWA BORDER/...DEPENDING ON IF WE CAN MAINTAIN AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS IN THAT AREA. IF THESE CAPES DO
VERIFY...THERE WILL BE GREATER POTENTIAL MORE STORM COVERAGE...
ORGANIZATION AND LONGEVITY...WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS.

THE WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...AND KEEP A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED STORMS GOING AT LEAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE EARLY MORNING AS WELL...MAINLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE CAPROCK.

.LONG TERM...
THE DISTURBANCE DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY EMERGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SECOND WAVE AND
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH AN
ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA. THE
LATEST NWP HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST WITH THE LATE DAY
DRYLINE POSITION...PLACING IT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK. THERE IS A CHANCE ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE DRYLINE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...THOUGH A WEAK
CAP...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE RELATIVELY LACK OF LARGE
SCALE SUPPORT CALL INTO QUESTION WHETHER CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AT
ALL LOCALLY...AND MOST NWP KEEP OUR CWA DRY. THAT SAID...IF
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000+ J/KG AND 0-6 KM
SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS COULD SUPPORT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. WE
HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA SEVERAL
PERCENTAGE POINTS...INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE...THOUGH WE
HAVE KEPT THE EXPLICIT MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
SURFACE ON THURSDAY...SHUNTING THE MOISTURE AND ANY LOW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FURTHER EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE CWA. INSTEAD...GUSTY AND DRY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO SLIP IN AND PROVIDE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS. COOLER AIR WILL THEN
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AFTER
EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK BELOW AVERAGE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS THEN PROGGED TO QUICKLY APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY WHILE RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS
NEAR THE SURFACE. IT DOES APPEAR MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE
LIMITED...BUT ENOUGH MID/UPPER SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPOTS OFF THE CAPROCK
MOST FAVORED. A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS THEN PROJECTED
TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE LONG TERM AS A
BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
QUICK WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. A DRYLINE SHOULD ALSO SETUP SOMEWHERE IN THE
REGION...THOUGH IF IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE ABLE TO HOLD IN OUR EASTERN ZONES DURING
PEAK HEATING REMAIN IN DOUBT AND A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED BEYOND SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH AMBIENT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED T-STORMS...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG AND ERRATIC DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THIS AREA.

WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE DRYLINE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE CAPROCK. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE MARGINAL ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH RH VALUES WILL
LIKELY DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT. THURSDAY WILL BRING MORE WARMTH AND
EVEN DRIER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WILL BRING COOLER AIR AND A
TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM THE HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  47  86  45 /  10  10   0  10
TULIA         84  51  87  48 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     85  51  86  48 /  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     85  51  87  49 /  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       86  53  88  52 /  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   83  52  85  50 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    84  53  86  50 /  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     89  57  89  56 /  20  20  10  10
SPUR          88  56  87  55 /  30  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     89  59  86  63 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/23
395
FXUS64 KLUB 310506
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1206 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE IS A LOW RISK OF SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARD SUNRISE THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ON
AREA SODARS THAT LLWS IS PRESENT AT KLBB AND KPVW WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT AOA 300 FT AGL. THAT HEIGHT MAY CHANGE SOMEWHAT THROUGH
THE MORNING AND SLOWLY VEER THOUGH THE SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UP
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH MID MORNING. FINALLY...THERE IS A
RISK OF AFTN TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY TOWARD KCDS.


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH OFF THE BAJA COAST WITH A
LARGE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD OVER WEST TEXAS. CLOUDS HAVE ENHANCED
FURTHER TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...PERHAPS
SOME TERRAIN AMPLIFICATION FACTORING IN WITH THE MOIST FLOW CROSSING
THE SIERRA MADRE AND SACRAMENTOS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS DENSER CLOUD
SHIELD HAS KEPT HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS HAVE INSISTED THAT SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER ENOUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON THE CAPROCK FOR 2-3 DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING. WE
HAD CONSIDERED ISSUING AN RFD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON FOR
ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL BUT GIVEN THE RECENT COOLER AND SLIGHTLY
MORE MOIST TRENDS HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THIS PRODUCT HARNESSED FOR NOW.

LOW LEVEL FLOW LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY VEERED OVERNIGHT ON THE
CAPROCK...PERHAPS SOME BACKING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS ALLOWING RECOVERY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS PROBABLY ELEVATING WELL INTO THE 50S. VERY MINOR RISK
STILL FOR LIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FROM FOG MAINLY SOUTHEAST...
BUT WILL KEEP UNMENTIONED. UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH ON
TUESDAY JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST BY LATE IN THE DAY. POCKETS OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL LIFT LOOK CAPABLE OF SPREADING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST ESTIMATE FOR SURFACE DRY-LINE LOCATION
WILL BE NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PLUS OR
MINUS. AND WE HAVE CENTERED BEST THUNDER CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THIS COUNTRY. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE ENERGY POTENTIAL OF 2000
JOULES PER KILOGRAM OR GREATER MAINLY EASTERN BORDER AREA WHERE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HIGHEST. MINOR CHANGES FOR BULK
OF PRODUCTS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A DRYLINE WILL BE PUSHING ITS WAY ACROSS THE FA LATE TUE INTO WED
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT.
SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW INVERTED V SOUNDINGS KEEPING STORMS HIGH
BASED. SOME STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
STRONG WINDS. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
SOLAR INSULATION IS LOST. THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE IN OUR EASTERN ZONES
BY MID TO LATE DAY WED. AS OF NOW NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
MOISTURE WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL BE
WARM...DRY...AND WINDY WHICH WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER DANGER.

A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON FRI AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
SWEEPS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL HELP TO COOL TEMPS OFF INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S FRI AND THE LOW TO MID 60S BY SAT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
QUICKLY TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH BY LATE SAT WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING
MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION AND HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. WHAT MAY HINDER
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IF ENOUGH
MOISTURE CAN BE PUMPED BACK INTO THE REGION SOME DRYLINE ACTIVITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS TO HAPPEN WILL
BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  84  44  81 /  10   0  10   0
TULIA         50  86  48  84 /  10   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     50  86  48  85 /  10   0  10   0
LEVELLAND     50  86  49  86 /  10   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       52  88  52  88 /  20   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   51  84  51  85 /  10   0  10   0
BROWNFIELD    51  85  52  86 /  20   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     57  88  57  88 /  20  10  10   0
SPUR          57  87  54  90 /  20  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     60  86  63  92 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
028
FXUS64 KLUB 302348
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
648 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS. PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL BE THAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS STRONG INVERSION
SETS UP THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS OF 30-40 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK
ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT CLOSER
TO 18Z WHEN LOW LEVEL MIXING BECOMES ESTABLISHED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH OFF THE BAJA COAST WITH A
LARGE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD OVER WEST TEXAS. CLOUDS HAVE ENHANCED
FURTHER TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...PERHAPS
SOME TERRAIN AMPLIFICATION FACTORING IN WITH THE MOIST FLOW CROSSING
THE SIERRA MADRE AND SACRAMENTOS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS DENSER CLOUD
SHIELD HAS KEPT HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS HAVE INSISTED THAT SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER ENOUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON THE CAPROCK FOR 2-3 DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING. WE
HAD CONSIDERED ISSUING AN RFD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON FOR
ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL BUT GIVEN THE RECENT COOLER AND SLIGHTLY
MORE MOIST TRENDS HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THIS PRODUCT HARNESSED FOR NOW.

LOW LEVEL FLOW LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY VEERED OVERNIGHT ON THE
CAPROCK...PERHAPS SOME BACKING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS ALLOWING RECOVERY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS PROBABLY ELEVATING WELL INTO THE 50S. VERY MINOR RISK
STILL FOR LIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FROM FOG MAINLY SOUTHEAST...
BUT WILL KEEP UNMENTIONED. UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH ON
TUESDAY JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST BY LATE IN THE DAY. POCKETS OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL LIFT LOOK CAPABLE OF SPREADING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST ESTIMATE FOR SURFACE DRY-LINE LOCATION
WILL BE NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PLUS OR
MINUS. AND WE HAVE CENTERED BEST THUNDER CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THIS COUNTRY. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE ENERGY POTENTIAL OF 2000
JOULES PER KILOGRAM OR GREATER MAINLY EASTERN BORDER AREA WHERE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HIGHEST. MINOR CHANGES FOR BULK
OF PRODUCTS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A DRYLINE WILL BE PUSHING ITS WAY ACROSS THE FA LATE TUE INTO WED
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT.
SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW INVERTED V SOUNDINGS KEEPING STORMS HIGH
BASED. SOME STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
STRONG WINDS. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
SOLAR INSULATION IS LOST. THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE IN OUR EASTERN ZONES
BY MID TO LATE DAY WED. AS OF NOW NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
MOISTURE WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL BE
WARM...DRY...AND WINDY WHICH WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER DANGER.

A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON FRI AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
SWEEPS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL HELP TO COOL TEMPS OFF INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S FRI AND THE LOW TO MID 60S BY SAT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
QUICKLY TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH BY LATE SAT WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING
MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION AND HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. WHAT MAY HINDER
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IF ENOUGH
MOISTURE CAN BE PUMPED BACK INTO THE REGION SOME DRYLINE ACTIVITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS TO HAPPEN WILL
BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  82  46  84 /  10  10  10   0
TULIA         50  84  50  86 /   0  20  10   0
PLAINVIEW     51  84  50  86 /   0  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     50  84  50  86 /  10  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       53  86  52  88 /  10  20  20   0
DENVER CITY   52  83  51  84 /  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    52  84  51  85 /  10  20  20   0
CHILDRESS     55  87  57  88 /   0  30  20  10
SPUR          56  86  57  87 /   0  30  20  10
ASPERMONT     59  87  60  86 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
397
FXUS64 KLUB 302022
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
322 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH OFF THE BAJA COAST WITH A
LARGE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD OVER WEST TEXAS. CLOUDS HAVE ENHANCED
FURTHER TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...PERHAPS
SOME TERRAIN AMPLIFICATION FACTORING IN WITH THE MOIST FLOW CROSSING
THE SIERRA MADRE AND SACRAMENTOS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS DENSER CLOUD
SHIELD HAS KEPT HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS HAVE INSISTED THAT SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER ENOUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON THE CAPROCK FOR 2-3 DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING. WE
HAD CONSIDERED ISSUING AN RFD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON FOR
ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL BUT GIVEN THE RECENT COOLER AND SLIGHTLY
MORE MOIST TRENDS HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THIS PRODUCT HARNESSED FOR NOW.

LOW LEVEL FLOW LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY VEERED OVERNIGHT ON THE
CAPROCK...PERHAPS SOME BACKING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS ALLOWING RECOVERY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS PROBABLY ELEVATING WELL INTO THE 50S. VERY MINOR RISK
STILL FOR LIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FROM FOG MAINLY SOUTHEAST...
BUT WILL KEEP UNMENTIONED. UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH ON
TUESDAY JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST BY LATE IN THE DAY. POCKETS OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL LIFT LOOK CAPABLE OF SPREADING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST ESTIMATE FOR SURFACE DRY-LINE LOCATION
WILL BE NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PLUS OR
MINUS. AND WE HAVE CENTERED BEST THUNDER CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THIS COUNTRY. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE ENERGY POTENTIAL OF 2000
JOULES PER KILOGRAM OR GREATER MAINLY EASTERN BORDER AREA WHERE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HIGHEST. MINOR CHANGES FOR BULK
OF PRODUCTS. RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
A DRYLINE WILL BE PUSHING ITS WAY ACROSS THE FA LATE TUE INTO WED
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT.
SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW INVERTED V SOUNDINGS KEEPING STORMS HIGH
BASED. SOME STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
STRONG WINDS. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
SOLAR INSULATION IS LOST. THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE IN OUR EASTERN ZONES
BY MID TO LATE DAY WED. AS OF NOW NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
MOISTURE WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL BE
WARM...DRY...AND WINDY WHICH WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER DANGER.

A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON FRI AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
SWEEPS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL HELP TO COOL TEMPS OFF INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S FRI AND THE LOW TO MID 60S BY SAT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
QUICKLY TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH BY LATE SAT WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING
MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION AND HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. WHAT MAY HINDER
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IF ENOUGH
MOISTURE CAN BE PUMPED BACK INTO THE REGION SOME DRYLINE ACTIVITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS TO HAPPEN WILL
BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  82  46  84 /  10  10  10   0
TULIA         50  84  50  86 /   0  20  10   0
PLAINVIEW     51  84  50  86 /   0  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     50  84  50  86 /  10  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       53  86  52  88 /  10  20  20   0
DENVER CITY   52  83  51  84 /  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    52  84  51  85 /  10  20  20   0
CHILDRESS     55  87  57  88 /   0  30  20  10
SPUR          56  86  57  87 /   0  30  20  10
ASPERMONT     59  87  60  86 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/51
665
FXUS64 KLUB 301730
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1230 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY IN THE
FORECAST WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT KPVW
AND KLBB. GUSTINESS LATE THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE AFFECTED AS WELL
BY VIRGA EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. LOW RISK OF
LIGHT FOG AND MINOR SURFACE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION KLBB EARLY
TUESDAY...WILL NOT MENTION FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR WILL DOMINATE THIS TAF CYCLE WITH PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFTING OVER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH GENERALLY SUSTAINED AT
OR BELOW 12 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW
CHURNING OFF THE BAJA...WITH A LARGE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING TO ITS NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO WEST
TEXAS. ALSO APPARENT IS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA...WITH SEVERAL SUBTLE/WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING
RESIDES OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
WANE AND SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AS ONE OR MORE UNORGANIZED RIBBONS OF
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY TRANSLATE OVER WITHIN BACKING FLOW ALOFT.

THE WEAK UPPER SUPPORT MAY PROVIDE A LITTLE PERIODIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH A RELATIVE DEARTH OF SUB-CLOUD
MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW /AND UNMENTIONABLE/ THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. FURTHER WEST...ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW
MEXICO...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD BUT WILL LIKELY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME SURVIVING THE JOURNEY ACROSS THE STATE LINE GIVEN
THE UNFAVORABLE/DRY LOW-LEVELS AND OVERALL WEAK UPPER SUPPORT.
INSTEAD...A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS ARE PROBABLY ALL THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE ABLE TO MUSTER LOCALLY. HOWEVER...WE WILL EXPERIENCE A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...AND COUPLED WITH THE DEPARTING
SURFACE RIDGE...IT WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST SPOTS. WE
HAVE FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...LEANING TOWARD A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND REDUCED INSOLATION.
OBVIOUSLY...IF THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE GREATER THAN EXPECTED OR
THE CLOUDS THINNER THAN ANTICIPATED...THE FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE MODESTLY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TONIGHT...BUT THEY WILL CARRY IN SOMEWHAT IMPROVED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD HELP SECURE A MILD
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE LOWS WILL ONLY
DIP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. ELSEWHERE...LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON.

LONG TERM...
THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT CONVOLUTED
AS THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE QUALITY OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AND THE DEGREE OF DRYLINE FORCING AND
UPPER-LEVEL LIFT.

THE LATEST MODEL PROGS BRING THE UPPER LOW ON A SLIGHTLY FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK ACROSS MX AND SW TX AND THUS LOWERS THE AMOUNT OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN OUR AREA. ALSO...MOISTURE RETURN IS
NOW NOT LOOKING QUITE AS ROBUST AS EARLIER INDICATED AND DIURNAL
MIXING IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 30S AND 40S
ON THE CAPROCK BY MID AFTERNOON....WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY YET HOLD
IN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. FINALLY...THE DRYLINE IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE VERY SHARP...WHICH APPEARS VALID GIVEN THE WEAK
MIDDLE AND LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
ZONE OF CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CAPROCK EDGE BY MID-AFTERNOON. FORECAST MLCAPES RANGE FROM ABOUT
500 J/KG NEAR THE I-27 CORRIDOR TO NEARLY 2000 J/KG IN THE EASTERN
ROLLING PLAINS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPROCK BY MID-
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ONLY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. THE
ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR A
LARGER THREAT OF BOTH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. MODEST DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT THE SHEAR IMPROVES
TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND COULD SUPPORT SOME MORE SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS ACROSS THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN/ERN ROLLING
PLAINS.

UNFORTUNATELY...WE HAVE MUCH BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT A VERY
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY PATTERN WILL ENSUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...TO GO ALONG WITH THE BREEZY SW-W WINDS. WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS LATE WED JUST IN
CASE THE DRYLINE HANGS UP JUST A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODEL PROJECTIONS...BUT MOST LIKELY THE MOISTURE AND T-STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WHAT WE/LL BE LEFT WITH
IS A VERY DRY WELL-MIXED AIRMASS THAT WILL SUPPORT AN ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO RACE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL PACK SOME DECENTLY COOL AIR WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 60S AND 70S...THEN ONLY 60S ON SATURDAY. RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP THINGS STABLE THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY...BUT A QUICK TRANSITION TO SW FLOW AND A WARM-AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO SOME
SHOWERS NUDGING INTO OUR SRN AND ERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND A
RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF/CENTRAL MX...WITH WEST TEXAS IN-BETWEEN. IF
THE DEEP SW FLOW DOESNT/T SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE THIS PATTERN
COULD SUPPORT SOME DRYLINE T-STORM ACTIVITY...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. A RETURN TO WARM TEMPS IS MUCH MORE
CERTAIN.

FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
LIKELY BOTH DAYS. THE DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS TO PUSH RH VALUES ACROSS THE CAPROCK WELL BELOW 15 PERCENT
EACH AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS MAY NOT QUITE REACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY BE STRONGER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  80  45  84 /  10  10  10   0
TULIA         48  82  49  87 /  10  20  10   0
PLAINVIEW     48  82  49  86 /  10  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     51  82  49  87 /  10  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       53  84  51  89 /  10  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   51  80  50  85 /  10  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    53  82  50  87 /  10  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     54  86  56  89 /  10  30  20  10
SPUR          55  84  56  88 /  10  30  20  10
ASPERMONT     59  84  59  88 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
759
FXUS64 KLUB 301123
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
623 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL DOMINATE THIS TAF CYCLE WITH PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFTING OVER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH GENERALLY SUSTAINED AT
OR BELOW 12 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW
CHURNING OFF THE BAJA...WITH A LARGE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING TO ITS NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO WEST
TEXAS. ALSO APPARENT IS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA...WITH SEVERAL SUBTLE/WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING
RESIDES OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
WANE AND SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AS ONE OR MORE UNORGANIZED RIBBONS OF
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY TRANSLATE OVER WITHIN BACKING FLOW ALOFT.

THE WEAK UPPER SUPPORT MAY PROVIDE A LITTLE PERIODIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH A RELATIVE DEARTH OF SUB-CLOUD
MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW /AND UNMENTIONABLE/ THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. FURTHER WEST...ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW
MEXICO...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD BUT WILL LIKELY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME SURVIVING THE JOURNEY ACROSS THE STATE LINE GIVEN
THE UNFAVORABLE/DRY LOW-LEVELS AND OVERALL WEAK UPPER SUPPORT.
INSTEAD...A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS ARE PROBABLY ALL THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE ABLE TO MUSTER LOCALLY. HOWEVER...WE WILL EXPERIENCE A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...AND COUPLED WITH THE DEPARTING
SURFACE RIDGE...IT WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST SPOTS. WE
HAVE FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...LEANING TOWARD A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND REDUCED INSOLATION.
OBVIOUSLY...IF THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE GREATER THAN EXPECTED OR
THE CLOUDS THINNER THAN ANTICIPATED...THE FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE MODESTLY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TONIGHT...BUT THEY WILL CARRY IN SOMEWHAT IMPROVED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD HELP SECURE A MILD
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE LOWS WILL ONLY
DIP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. ELSEWHERE...LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON.

LONG TERM...
THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT CONVOLUTED
AS THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE QUALITY OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AND THE DEGREE OF DRYLINE FORCING AND
UPPER-LEVEL LIFT.

THE LATEST MODEL PROGS BRING THE UPPER LOW ON A SLIGHTLY FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK ACROSS MX AND SW TX AND THUS LOWERS THE AMOUNT OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN OUR AREA. ALSO...MOISTURE RETURN IS
NOW NOT LOOKING QUITE AS ROBUST AS EARLIER INDICATED AND DIURNAL
MIXING IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 30S AND 40S
ON THE CAPROCK BY MID AFTERNOON....WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY YET HOLD
IN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. FINALLY...THE DRYLINE IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE VERY SHARP...WHICH APPEARS VALID GIVEN THE WEAK
MIDDLE AND LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
ZONE OF CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CAPROCK EDGE BY MID-AFTERNOON. FORECAST MLCAPES RANGE FROM ABOUT
500 J/KG NEAR THE I-27 CORRIDOR TO NEARLY 2000 J/KG IN THE EASTERN
ROLLING PLAINS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPROCK BY MID-
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ONLY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. THE
ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR A
LARGER THREAT OF BOTH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. MODEST DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT THE SHEAR IMPROVES
TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND COULD SUPPORT SOME MORE SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS ACROSS THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN/ERN ROLLING
PLAINS.

UNFORTUNATELY...WE HAVE MUCH BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT A VERY
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY PATTERN WILL ENSUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...TO GO ALONG WITH THE BREEZY SW-W WINDS. WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS LATE WED JUST IN
CASE THE DRYLINE HANGS UP JUST A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODEL PROJECTIONS...BUT MOST LIKELY THE MOISTURE AND T-STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WHAT WE/LL BE LEFT WITH
IS A VERY DRY WELL-MIXED AIRMASS THAT WILL SUPPORT AN ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO RACE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL PACK SOME DECENTLY COOL AIR WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 60S AND 70S...THEN ONLY 60S ON SATURDAY. RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP THINGS STABLE THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY...BUT A QUICK TRANSITION TO SW FLOW AND A WARM-AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO SOME
SHOWERS NUDGING INTO OUR SRN AND ERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND A
RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF/CENTRAL MX...WITH WEST TEXAS IN-BETWEEN. IF
THE DEEP SW FLOW DOESN/T SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE THIS PATTERN COULD
SUPPORT SOME DRYLINE T-STORM ACTIVITY...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. A RETURN TO WARM TEMPS IS MUCH MORE
CERTAIN.

FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
LIKELY BOTH DAYS. THE DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS TO PUSH RH VALUES ACROSS THE CAPROCK WELL BELOW 15 PERCENT
EACH AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS MAY NOT QUITE REACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY BE STRONGER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  47  80  45 /   0  10  10  10
TULIA         75  48  82  49 /   0  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     74  48  82  49 /   0  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     76  51  82  49 /   0  10  20  10
LUBBOCK       76  53  84  51 /   0  10  30  10
DENVER CITY   75  51  80  50 /   0  10  20  10
BROWNFIELD    75  53  82  50 /   0  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     79  54  86  56 /   0  10  30  20
SPUR          77  55  84  56 /   0  10  30  20
ASPERMONT     79  59  84  59 /   0  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23
489
FXUS64 KLUB 300854
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
354 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW
CHURNING OFF THE BAJA...WITH A LARGE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING TO ITS NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO WEST
TEXAS. ALSO APPARENT IS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA...WITH SEVERAL SUBTLE/WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING
RESIDES OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
WANE AND SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AS ONE OR MORE UNORGANIZED RIBBONS OF
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY TRANSLATE OVER WITHIN BACKING FLOW ALOFT.

THE WEAK UPPER SUPPORT MAY PROVIDE A LITTLE PERIODIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH A RELATIVE DEARTH OF SUB-CLOUD
MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW /AND UNMENTIONABLE/ THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. FURTHER WEST...ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW
MEXICO...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD BUT WILL LIKELY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME SURVIVING THE JOURNEY ACROSS THE STATE LINE GIVEN
THE UNFAVORABLE/DRY LOW-LEVELS AND OVERALL WEAK UPPER SUPPORT.
INSTEAD...A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS ARE PROBABLY ALL THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE ABLE TO MUSTER LOCALLY. HOWEVER...WE WILL EXPERIENCE A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...AND COUPLED WITH THE DEPARTING
SURFACE RIDGE...IT WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST SPOTS. WE
HAVE FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...LEANING TOWARD A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND REDUCED INSOLATION.
OBVIOUSLY...IF THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE GREATER THAN EXPECTED OR
THE CLOUDS THINNER THAN ANTICIPATED...THE FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE MODESTLY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TONIGHT...BUT THEY WILL CARRY IN SOMEWHAT IMPROVED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD HELP SECURE A MILD
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE LOWS WILL ONLY
DIP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. ELSEWHERE...LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON.



.LONG TERM...
THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT CONVOLUTED
AS THERE ARE STILL SOME UCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE QUALITY OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AND THE DEGREE OF DRYLINE FORCING AND
UPPER-LEVEL LIFT.

THE LATEST MODEL PROGS BRING THE UPPER LOW ON A SLIGHTLY FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK ACROSS MX AND SW TX AND THUS LOWERS THE AMOUNT OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN OUR AREA. ALSO...MOISTURE RETURN IS
NOW NOT LOOKING QUITE AS ROBUST AS EARLIER INDICATED AND DIURNAL
MIXING IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 30S AND 40S
ON THE CAPROCK BY MID AFTERNOON....WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY YET HOLD
IN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. FINALLY...THE DRYLINE IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE VERY SHARP...WHICH APPEARS VALID GIVEN THE WEAK
MIDDLE AND LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
ZONE OF CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CAPROCK EDGE BY MID-AFTERNOON. FORECAST MLCAPES RANGE FROM ABOUT
500 J/KG NEAR THE I-27 CORRIDOR TO NEARLY 2000 J/KG IN THE EASTERN
ROLLING PLAINS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPROCK BY MID-
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ONLY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. THE
ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR A
LARGER THREAT OF BOTH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. MODEST DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT THE SHEAR IMPROVES
TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND COULD SUPPORT SOME MORE SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS ACROSS THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN/ERN ROLLING
PLAINS.

UNFORTUNATELY...WE HAVE MUCH BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT A VERY
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY PATTERN WILL ENSUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...TO GO ALONG WITH THE BREEZY SW-W WINDS. WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS LATE WED JUST IN
CASE THE DRYLINE HANGS UP JUST A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODEL PROJECTIONS...BUT MOST LIKELY THE MOISTURE AND T-STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WHAT WE/LL BE LEFT WITH
IS A VERY DRY WELL-MIXED AIRMASS THAT WILL SUPPORT AN ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO RACE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL PACK SOME DECENTLY COOL AIR WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 60S AND 70S...THEN ONLY 60S ON SATURDAY. RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP THINGS STABLE THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY...BUT A QUICK TRANSITION TO SW FLOW AND A WARM-ARI
ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO SOME
SHOWERS NUDGING INTO OUR SRN AND ERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND A
RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF/CENTRAL MX...WITH WEST TEXAS IN-BETWEEN. IF
THE DEEP SW FLOW DOESN/T SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE THIS PATTERN COULD
SUPPORT SOME DRYLINE T-STORM ACTIVITY...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. A RETURN TO WARM TEMPS IS MUCH MORE
CERTAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
LIKELY BOTH DAYS. THE DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS TO PUSH RH VALUES ACROSS THE CAPROCK WELL BELOW 15 PERCENT
EACH AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS MAY NOT QUITE REACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY BE STRONGER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  47  80  45 /   0  10  10  10
TULIA         75  48  82  49 /   0  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     74  48  82  49 /   0  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     76  51  82  49 /   0  10  20  10
LUBBOCK       76  53  84  51 /   0  10  30  10
DENVER CITY   75  51  80  50 /   0  10  20  10
BROWNFIELD    75  53  82  50 /   0  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     79  54  86  56 /   0  10  30  20
SPUR          77  55  84  56 /   0  10  30  20
ASPERMONT     79  59  84  59 /   0  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33
721
FXUS64 KLUB 300452 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1152 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND GRADUALLY BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY ARE EXPECTED.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND WILL
GRADUALLY GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET WITH A SLOW SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AT OR UNDER 10
KNOTS ON MONDAY AS WELL.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING ESE TO ACROSS SRN CANADA/THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE THIS AFTN...HAS SENT DOWN A DRY AND BREEZY COLD
FRONT TO IMPINGE ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN...WITH
THE ERN EDGE HAVING CLEARED THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS IN THE LAST HR OR
SO. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 1-4 MB PER 3 HRS HAVE RESULTED IN
N-NE WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED /WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
SPEEDS/ AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE HIGHEST SPEEDS WERE NOTED
ACROSS THE NOT TOO SURPRISINGLY NWRN SOUTH PLAINS COINCIDING WITH A
HIGHER ELEVATION...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING
PLAINS...COURTESY OF AN 850 MB JET MAX THERE. AS SUCH...IT IS NO
WONDER SPEEDS HAVE BEEN FLIRTING/BRIEFLY EQUATING WIND ADVISORY
SPEEDS ACROSS THE SAID AREAS. WILL ELECT TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
WIND ADVISORY ATTM AS IT IS NOT WIDE-SPREAD. VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED
TO 9SM EARLIER THIS AFTN AT KLBB /HAS SINCE COME BACK UP TO 10SM/
DUE TO OCCASIONAL PATCHY BLDU...WHICH IS STILL BEING REPORTED VIA
THE KLBB METAR. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST IS
ALSO OCCURRING NEAR OPEN FIELDS. TEMPS ARE APPROX 4-6 DEGREES COOLER
FROM 24 HRS AGO DUE TO THE COOLER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT. AS THE SFC RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRIVING THE COLD FRONT
SETTLES NEAR THE FA AOA SUNSET...A NOTABLE DECLINE IN E-NE WIND
SPEEDS WILL OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT /AND AT TIMES VARIABLE/
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD USUALLY RAISE EYEBROWS FOR COOL OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. HOWEVER A CLOSED UA LOW APPROX 680 MILES WEST OF THE BAJA OF
CALI...HAS BEGUN TO STREAM HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS ERN NM AND THE
WRN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO LOWER A BIT
AND THICKEN. THIS WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD WITH
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER WX FEATURE OF CONCERN LATE THIS AFTN IS ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS...AS ABOVE NORM TEMPS HAVE CAUSED RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 10-25 PERCENT...AND WIND SPEEDS EQUATING
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ONLY ADDS TO THE CONCERN. PLEASE REFER TO THE
FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. TOMORROW...AN UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME WILL PERSIST LEADING TO PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 0.55-0.85
INCH RANGE /WITH HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLANS/.
FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE COMMENCED TO BACK FROM THE NW TO THE WSW THANKS
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ERN PACIFIC CLOSED UA LOW THAT WILL BE
PROPAGATING EWRD TOWARDS THE BAJA OF CALI. HENCE...THE FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE BROUGHT IN BY THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN THICK MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS. LOWERED 500 MB HEIGHT
FIELDS AND 850 MB TEMPS COUPLED WITH THE NEARBY INFLUENCE OF THE SFC
RIDGE /AND CLOUDINESS/ WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 70S. A NEARBY SFC
LOW PROMOTING A PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THE AFTN WILL CAUSE S-SE SFC
WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IT WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORM. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TERRIBLY LOW /20-35 PERCENT/
BUT THE LOWEST HUMIDITIES WILL COINCIDE WITH WHERE THE BREEZIEST
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THUS...ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS MAY OCCUR.
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBITED AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NM THUS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN NM TOMORROW AFTN.
RELATIVELY WEAK MEAN FLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO NOT BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS...SO WILL KEEP THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST DRY.

LONG TERM...
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR WEATHER ARRIVES CENTERED LATE TUESDAY WITH A
LOW LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PACKAGE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST
STEERING MAINLY JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHERE THE BULK OF LIFT AND
MOISTURE SUGGEST BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEVELOP. BUT A
STEALTHY LITTLE CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE SAN JUAQUIN VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL STEER A BIT OF ENERGY MORE DIRECTED OUR WAY BY
TUESDAY. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL LOOKS OPEN WHILE SWINGING
THROUGH...AS SUCH GENERALLY THESE WE DOWNPLAY...BUT ALSO JUST
ENOUGH PIECES OF ENERGY TO MORE OR LESS RETAIN PREVIOUS LOW CHANCE
OF THUNDER CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES LATE TUESDAY.
AND WE STILL ARE SEEING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE
WRF/NAM THOUGH MINIMAL IN THE GFS...OPTED TO RETAIN SOME
CONSIDERATION OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EVEN WITHOUT GOOD AGREEMENT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL APPEAR DRY BREEZY AND VERY WARM.
ONLY SMALL CHANGES NEEDED THIS TIME. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY
DEVELOP AS INDICATED BELOW.

ARRIVAL TIME OF NEXT MASS OF COLDER AIR APPEARS A LITTLE EARLIER
FRIDAY THAN PREVIOUS. WE MAINTAINED A SOMEWHAT BLENDED SOLUTION
TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SLIGHT POTENTIAL OF A LATER ARRIVAL...WHICH
LETS US BLEND BETTER WITH NORTH-SOUTH NEIGHBORS AS WELL. AND THIS
FRONT NOT SHOWING QUITE AS MUCH PUSH TO THE SOUTH INTO THE
WEEKEND...SO ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER MOISTURE RETURN BY LATE NEXT
SATURDAY...JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
A RATHER BREEZY/LOW END WINDY COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND MOST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTN...RESULTING IN NRLY 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED
WITH UP TO 40 MPH GUSTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COUPLED WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES THAT HAVE FALLEN TO 10-25 PERCENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS...HAVE RESULTED IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK AND A
FEW LOCATIONS OFF THE CAPROCK TICKING OFF RED FLAG MINUTES /ONLY A
FEW HAVE SURPASSED THE 3-HRLY TIME CRITERIA/. DUE TO ONLY A HANDFUL
OF LOCATIONS SURPASSING THE TIME CRITERIA...AND WIND SPEEDS HAVING
HAD DECLINED JUST A BIT FROM EARLIER THIS AFTN...WILL CAUSE HOLDING
OFF ON ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA WHICH IS WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY SINCE A WHEAT FIELD CAUGHT ON
FIRE ALONG THE CASTRO AND SWISHER COUNTY LINE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HOT SPOT SIGNATURE HAS SINCE DIMINISHED.

TOMORROW...A NEARBY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE A BIT OF A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN 20-FOOT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 MPH RANGE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH
PLAINS AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS /70S/
BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AND AS SUCH HUMIDITIES WILL BE CAPABLE OF
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
HENCE...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ONCE AGAIN EXIST. /29

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL MAY OFFER NEXT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED
OR APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH
REFORMS...AND MIXING DEEPENS. CURRENT OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH WIND SPEEDS...BUT WE HAVE EDGED GRID
WINDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER PLAYING THE PATTERN AND TIME OF YEAR. /05
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  73  45  80 /   0   0  10  20
TULIA         39  73  48  80 /   0   0   0  30
PLAINVIEW     40  73  49  81 /   0   0   0  30
LEVELLAND     43  73  50  81 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       42  74  52  82 /   0   0   0  30
DENVER CITY   43  73  51  79 /   0   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    44  73  52  80 /   0   0  10  30
CHILDRESS     45  76  54  84 /   0   0   0  30
SPUR          46  74  55  82 /   0   0   0  30
ASPERMONT     49  76  58  83 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/14
677
FXUS64 KLUB 292316 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
616 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND WILL
GRADUALLY GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET WITH A SLOW SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AT OR UNDER 10
KNOTS ON MONDAY AS WELL.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING ESE TO ACROSS SRN CANADA/THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE THIS AFTN...HAS SENT DOWN A DRY AND BREEZY COLD
FRONT TO IMPINGE ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN...WITH
THE ERN EDGE HAVING CLEARED THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS IN THE LAST HR OR
SO. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 1-4 MB PER 3 HRS HAVE RESULTED IN
N-NE WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED /WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
SPEEDS/ AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE HIGHEST SPEEDS WERE NOTED
ACROSS THE NOT TOO SURPRISINGLY NWRN SOUTH PLAINS COINCIDING WITH A
HIGHER ELEVATION...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING
PLAINS...COURTESY OF AN 850 MB JET MAX THERE. AS SUCH...IT IS NO
WONDER SPEEDS HAVE BEEN FLIRTING/BRIEFLY EQUATING WIND ADVISORY
SPEEDS ACROSS THE SAID AREAS. WILL ELECT TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
WIND ADVISORY ATTM AS IT IS NOT WIDE-SPREAD. VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED
TO 9SM EARLIER THIS AFTN AT KLBB /HAS SINCE COME BACK UP TO 10SM/
DUE TO OCCASIONAL PATCHY BLDU...WHICH IS STILL BEING REPORTED VIA
THE KLBB METAR. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST IS
ALSO OCCURRING NEAR OPEN FIELDS. TEMPS ARE APPROX 4-6 DEGREES COOLER
FROM 24 HRS AGO DUE TO THE COOLER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT. AS THE SFC RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRIVING THE COLD FRONT
SETTLES NEAR THE FA AOA SUNSET...A NOTABLE DECLINE IN E-NE WIND
SPEEDS WILL OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT /AND AT TIMES VARIABLE/
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD USUALLY RAISE EYEBROWS FOR COOL OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. HOWEVER A CLOSED UA LOW APPROX 680 MILES WEST OF THE BAJA OF
CALI...HAS BEGUN TO STREAM HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS ERN NM AND THE
WRN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO LOWER A BIT
AND THICKEN. THIS WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD WITH
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER WX FEATURE OF CONCERN LATE THIS AFTN IS ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS...AS ABOVE NORM TEMPS HAVE CAUSED RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 10-25 PERCENT...AND WIND SPEEDS EQUATING
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ONLY ADDS TO THE CONCERN. PLEASE REFER TO THE
FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. TOMORROW...AN UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME WILL PERSIST LEADING TO PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 0.55-0.85
INCH RANGE /WITH HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLANS/.
FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE COMMENCED TO BACK FROM THE NW TO THE WSW THANKS
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ERN PACIFIC CLOSED UA LOW THAT WILL BE
PROPAGATING EWRD TOWARDS THE BAJA OF CALI. HENCE...THE FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE BROUGHT IN BY THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN THICK MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS. LOWERED 500 MB HEIGHT
FIELDS AND 850 MB TEMPS COUPLED WITH THE NEARBY INFLUENCE OF THE SFC
RIDGE /AND CLOUDINESS/ WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 70S. A NEARBY SFC
LOW PROMOTING A PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THE AFTN WILL CAUSE S-SE SFC
WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IT WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORM. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TERRIBLY LOW /20-35 PERCENT/
BUT THE LOWEST HUMIDITIES WILL COINCIDE WITH WHERE THE BREEZIEST
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THUS...ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS MAY OCCUR.
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBITED AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NM THUS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN NM TOMORROW AFTN.
RELATIVELY WEAK MEAN FLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO NOT BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS...SO WILL KEEP THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST DRY.

LONG TERM...
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR WEATHER ARRIVES CENTERED LATE TUESDAY WITH A
LOW LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PACKAGE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST
STEERING MAINLY JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHERE THE BULK OF LIFT AND
MOISTURE SUGGEST BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEVELOP. BUT A
STEALTHY LITTLE CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE SAN JUAQUIN VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL STEER A BIT OF ENERGY MORE DIRECTED OUR WAY BY
TUESDAY. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL LOOKS OPEN WHILE SWINGING
THROUGH...AS SUCH GENERALLY THESE WE DOWNPLAY...BUT ALSO JUST
ENOUGH PIECES OF ENERGY TO MORE OR LESS RETAIN PREVIOUS LOW CHANCE
OF THUNDER CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES LATE TUESDAY.
AND WE STILL ARE SEEING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE
WRF/NAM THOUGH MINIMAL IN THE GFS...OPTED TO RETAIN SOME
CONSIDERATION OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EVEN WITHOUT GOOD AGREEMENT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL APPEAR DRY BREEZY AND VERY WARM.
ONLY SMALL CHANGES NEEDED THIS TIME. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY
DEVELOP AS INDICATED BELOW.

ARRIVAL TIME OF NEXT MASS OF COLDER AIR APPEARS A LITTLE EARLIER
FRIDAY THAN PREVIOUS. WE MAINTAINED A SOMEWHAT BLENDED SOLUTION
TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SLIGHT POTENTIAL OF A LATER ARRIVAL...WHICH
LETS US BLEND BETTER WITH NORTH-SOUTH NEIGHBORS AS WELL. AND THIS
FRONT NOT SHOWING QUITE AS MUCH PUSH TO THE SOUTH INTO THE
WEEKEND...SO ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER MOISTURE RETURN BY LATE NEXT
SATURDAY...JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
A RATHER BREEZY/LOW END WINDY COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND MOST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTN...RESULTING IN NRLY 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED
WITH UP TO 40 MPH GUSTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COUPLED WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES THAT HAVE FALLEN TO 10-25 PERCENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS...HAVE RESULTED IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK AND A
FEW LOCATIONS OFF THE CAPROCK TICKING OFF RED FLAG MINUTES /ONLY A
FEW HAVE SURPASSED THE 3-HRLY TIME CRITERIA/. DUE TO ONLY A HANDFUL
OF LOCATIONS SURPASSING THE TIME CRITERIA...AND WIND SPEEDS HAVING
HAD DECLINED JUST A BIT FROM EARLIER THIS AFTN...WILL CAUSE HOLDING
OFF ON ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA WHICH IS WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY SINCE A WHEAT FIELD CAUGHT ON
FIRE ALONG THE CASTRO AND SWISHER COUNTY LINE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HOT SPOT SIGNATURE HAS SINCE DIMINISHED.

TOMORROW...A NEARBY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE A BIT OF A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN 20-FOOT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 MPH RANGE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH
PLAINS AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS /70S/
BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AND AS SUCH HUMIDITIES WILL BE CAPABLE OF
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
HENCE...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ONCE AGAIN EXIST. /29

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL MAY OFFER NEXT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED
OR APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH
REFORMS...AND MIXING DEEPENS. CURRENT OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH WIND SPEEDS...BUT WE HAVE EDGED GRID
WINDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER PLAYING THE PATTERN AND TIME OF YEAR. /05
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  73  45  80 /   0   0  10  20
TULIA         39  73  48  80 /   0   0   0  30
PLAINVIEW     40  73  49  81 /   0   0   0  30
LEVELLAND     43  73  50  81 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       42  74  52  82 /   0   0   0  30
DENVER CITY   43  73  51  79 /   0   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    44  73  52  80 /   0   0  10  30
CHILDRESS     45  76  54  84 /   0   0   0  30
SPUR          46  74  55  82 /   0   0   0  30
ASPERMONT     49  76  58  83 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/14
679
FXUS64 KLUB 292035
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
335 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING ESE TO ACROSS SRN CANADA/THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE THIS AFTN...HAS SENT DOWN A DRY AND BREEZY COLD
FRONT TO IMPINGE ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN...WITH
THE ERN EDGE HAVING CLEARED THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS IN THE LAST HR OR
SO. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 1-4 MB PER 3 HRS HAVE RESULTED IN
N-NE WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED /WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
SPEEDS/ AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE HIGHEST SPEEDS WERE NOTED
ACROSS THE NOT TOO SURPRISINGLY NWRN SOUTH PLAINS COINCIDING WITH A
HIGHER ELEVATION...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING
PLAINS...COURTESY OF AN 850 MB JET MAX THERE. AS SUCH...IT IS NO
WONDER SPEEDS HAVE BEEN FLIRTING/BRIEFLY EQUATING WIND ADVISORY
SPEEDS ACROSS THE SAID AREAS. WILL ELECT TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
WIND ADVISORY ATTM AS IT IS NOT WIDE-SPREAD. VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED
TO 9SM EARLIER THIS AFTN AT KLBB /HAS SINCE COME BACK UP TO 10SM/
DUE TO OCCASIONAL PATCHY BLDU...WHICH IS STILL BEING REPORTED VIA
THE KLBB METAR. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST IS
ALSO OCCURRING NEAR OPEN FIELDS. TEMPS ARE APPROX 4-6 DEGREES COOLER
FROM 24 HRS AGO DUE TO THE COOLER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT. AS THE SFC RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRIVING THE COLD FRONT
SETTLES NEAR THE FA AOA SUNSET...A NOTABLE DECLINE IN E-NE WIND
SPEEDS WILL OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT /AND AT TIMES VARIABLE/
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD USUALLY RAISE EYEBROWS FOR COOL OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. HOWEVER A CLOSED UA LOW APPROX 680 MILES WEST OF THE BAJA OF
CALI...HAS BEGUN TO STREAM HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS ERN NM AND THE
WRN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO LOWER A BIT
AND THICKEN. THIS WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD WITH
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER WX FEATURE OF CONCERN LATE THIS AFTN IS ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS...AS ABOVE NORM TEMPS HAVE CAUSED RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 10-25 PERCENT...AND WIND SPEEDS EQUATING
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ONLY ADDS TO THE CONCERN. PLEASE REFER TO THE
FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. TOMORROW...AN UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME WILL PERSIST LEADING TO PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 0.55-0.85
INCH RANGE /WITH HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLANS/.
FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE COMMENCED TO BACK FROM THE NW TO THE WSW THANKS
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ERN PACIFIC CLOSED UA LOW THAT WILL BE
PROPAGATING EWRD TOWARDS THE BAJA OF CALI. HENCE...THE FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE BROUGHT IN BY THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN THICK MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS. LOWERED 500 MB HEIGHT
FIELDS AND 850 MB TEMPS COUPLED WITH THE NEARBY INFLUENCE OF THE SFC
RIDGE /AND CLOUDINESS/ WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 70S. A NEARBY SFC
LOW PROMOTING A PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THE AFTN WILL CAUSE S-SE SFC
WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IT WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORM. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TERRIBLY LOW /20-35 PERCENT/
BUT THE LOWEST HUMIDITIES WILL COINCIDE WITH WHERE THE BREEZIEST
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THUS...ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS MAY OCCUR.
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBITED AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NM THUS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN NM TOMORROW AFTN.
RELATIVELY WEAK MEAN FLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO NOT BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS...SO WILL KEEP THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM...
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR WEATHER ARRIVES CENTERED LATE TUESDAY WITH A
LOW LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PACKAGE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST
STEERING MAINLY JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHERE THE BULK OF LIFT AND
MOISTURE SUGGEST BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEVELOP. BUT A
STEALTHY LITTLE CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE SAN JUAQUIN VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL STEER A BIT OF ENERGY MORE DIRECTED OUR WAY BY
TUESDAY. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL LOOKS OPEN WHILE SWINGING
THROUGH...AS SUCH GENERALLY THESE WE DOWNPLAY...BUT ALSO JUST
ENOUGH PIECES OF ENERGY TO MORE OR LESS RETAIN PREVIOUS LOW CHANCE
OF THUNDER CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES LATE TUESDAY.
AND WE STILL ARE SEEING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE
WRF/NAM THOUGH MINIMAL IN THE GFS...OPTED TO RETAIN SOME
CONSIDERATION OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EVEN WITHOUT GOOD AGREEMENT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL APPEAR DRY BREEZY AND VERY WARM.
ONLY SMALL CHANGES NEEDED THIS TIME. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY
DEVELOP AS INDICATED BELOW.

ARRIVAL TIME OF NEXT MASS OF COLDER AIR APPEARS A LITTLE EARLIER
FRIDAY THAN PREVIOUS. WE MAINTAINED A SOMEWHAT BLENDED SOLUTION
TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SLIGHT POTENTIAL OF A LATER ARRIVAL...WHICH
LETS US BLEND BETTER WITH NORTH-SOUTH NEIGHBORS AS WELL. AND THIS
FRONT NOT SHOWING QUITE AS MUCH PUSH TO THE SOUTH INTO THE
WEEKEND...SO ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER MOISTURE RETURN BY LATE NEXT
SATURDAY...JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RATHER BREEZY/LOW END WINDY COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND MOST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTN...RESULTING IN NRLY 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED
WITH UP TO 40 MPH GUSTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COUPLED WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES THAT HAVE FALLEN TO 10-25 PERCENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS...HAVE RESULTED IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK AND A
FEW LOCATIONS OFF THE CAPROCK TICKING OFF RED FLAG MINUTES /ONLY A
FEW HAVE SURPASSED THE 3-HRLY TIME CRITERIA/. DUE TO ONLY A HANDFUL
OF LOCATIONS SURPASSING THE TIME CRITERIA...AND WIND SPEEDS HAVING
HAD DECLINED JUST A BIT FROM EARLIER THIS AFTN...WILL CAUSE HOLDING
OFF ON ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA WHICH IS WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY SINCE A WHEAT FIELD CAUGHT ON
FIRE ALONG THE CASTRO AND SWISHER COUNTY LINE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HOT SPOT SIGNATURE HAS SINCE DIMINISHED.

TOMORROW...A NEARBY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE A BIT OF A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN 20-FOOT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 MPH RANGE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH
PLAINS AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS /70S/
BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AND AS SUCH HUMIDITIES WILL BE CAPABLE OF
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
HENCE...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ONCE AGAIN EXIST. /29

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL MAY OFFER NEXT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED
OR APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH
REFORMS...AND MIXING DEEPENS. CURRENT OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH WIND SPEEDS...BUT WE HAVE EDGED GRID
WINDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER PLAYING THE PATTERN AND TIME OF YEAR. /05
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  73  45  80 /   0   0  10  20
TULIA         39  73  48  80 /   0   0   0  30
PLAINVIEW     40  73  49  81 /   0   0   0  30
LEVELLAND     43  73  50  81 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       42  74  52  82 /   0   0   0  30
DENVER CITY   43  73  51  79 /   0   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    44  73  52  80 /   0   0  10  30
CHILDRESS     45  76  54  84 /   0   0   0  30
SPUR          46  74  55  82 /   0   0   0  30
ASPERMONT     49  76  58  83 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05
143
FXUS64 KLUB 291714
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1214 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN NORTH WIND SPEEDS OF 22-26 KTS. LOWEST
WIND SPEEDS OCCURRING AT KCDS AND KLBB THUS FAR...BUT COMPUTER
MODELS HINT AT SPEEDS POSSIBLY INCREASING JUST A BIT AOA 25 KTS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR BLDU CAUSED BY THE WIND SPEEDS. HOWEVER
KLBB HAS DROPPED TO 9SM DUE TO BLDU. WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING A
BLDU MENTION FOR NOW BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. NEAR
SUNSET...A NOTABLE DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR /BELOW 12
KTS/ WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FEW VFR DECKS WILL THICKEN THROUGHOUT THIS
TAF CYCLE LEADING TO SCT- BKN DECKS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT BUT RELATIVELY
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE DAKOTAS. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN DISPLACED
WELL TO OUR NORTH AS IT MAINTAINS AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...BUT IT
WILL DELIVER A COLD FRONT TO WEST TEXAS TODAY. AS OF 07Z...THE COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS...AND
IT WILL CONTINUE MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD ENTER
THE NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND 14Z. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...PERHAPS NOT EXITING THE
FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG WITH 30+ KT JET AT 850 MB WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN GUSTY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON BEHIND THE
FRONT...PEAKING FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD OCCASIONAL FLIRT WITH LOW-END WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND SPOTTY
AND NO ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY PLANNED.

THE FRONT WILL BRING MODEST COOLING WITH IT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THE WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER /SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS/. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW THIN/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL THICKEN/LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. EVEN
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
40S...WITH A FEW 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHWEST ZONES.

LONG TERM...
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW NWWD BACK INTO WTX ON THE LLJ
MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWER AND
T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER IN THE NM HIGHLANDS
AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION. IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS MONDAY
EVENING. THE NAM SUGGESTS IT COULD MAKE IT TO THE STATE
LINE...BUT IT MAY BE OVER-ZEALOUS WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF NW MX INTO SW TX ON
TUESDAY...TRENDING A BIT SLOWER IN THE NAM AND ECMWF THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS KEEPS OUR FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY AS THE BEST LIFT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND THE DEEPER MOISTER SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
THE NAM...SREF AND ECMWF ARE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP CHANCES. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO ADJUST TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR THE OTHER AT THIS
POINT SINCE THE STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ABOUT 500 MILES OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA. BLENDED GUIDANCE POPS RANGE FROM ABOUT 20 PERCENT
IN THE NW TO 30 PERCENT IN THE SE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
COMPROMISE FOR NOW. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED BY ANY MOIST CONVECTION. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS IN THE MORNING AND THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE ARE STILL IN
QUESTION. IF SURFACE TEMPS CAN WARM INTO THE 80S AND THE MORE
ROBUST SURFACE DEWPOINTS VERIFY...WE COULD SEE CAPES IN THE RANGE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER T-STORM CELLS DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR.

AFTER THAT WAVE PASSES...WE EXPECT A DRY...BREEZY AND WARM PERIOD
AS SWIFT WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS DOWNSTREAM
OF A UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...EXPOUNDED UPON BELOW. AS
IT LOOKS NOW...WED WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THU AND FRIDAY...AND DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. WE EXPECT COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON SATURDAY.
THE GFS SHOWS A QUICK TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTERCEPTING RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS NM
AND WTX...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIP SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS
TRANSITION AND THUS IS WARMER AND DRIER NEXT WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS
MORNING...EXITING THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVELY HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT...IT WILL
CREATE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND HUMIDITIES SLOWLY IMPROVE...BRINGING AN
END TO THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

A PERIOD OF DEEP...DRY...WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS AREA LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPROCK BOTH
AFTERNOONS...AND POSSIBLY INTO ADJACENT PORTION OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR TO
DECISIVELY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT ANY TREND TOWARD HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  73  45  80 /   0   0  10  20
TULIA         39  73  48  80 /   0   0   0  30
PLAINVIEW     40  73  49  81 /   0   0   0  30
LEVELLAND     43  73  50  81 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       42  74  52  82 /   0   0   0  30
DENVER CITY   43  73  51  79 /   0   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    44  73  52  80 /   0   0  10  30
CHILDRESS     45  76  54  84 /   0   0   0  30
SPUR          46  74  55  82 /   0   0   0  30
ASPERMONT     49  76  58  83 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
130
FXUS64 KLUB 291140
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
640 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF CYCLE REVOLVES AROUND GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS THAT WILL VISIT THE TERMINALS BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER THIS MORNING. THE LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHERLY AND
BECOMING SUSTAINED AT 20-25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DROPPING OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND SUNSET. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE STRONG
WINDS COULD LOFT ENOUGH BLOWING DUST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. ASIDE FROM THE RISK OF BLDU...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
BY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT BUT RELATIVELY
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE DAKOTAS. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN DISPLACED
WELL TO OUR NORTH AS IT MAINTAINS AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...BUT IT
WILL DELIVER A COLD FRONT TO WEST TEXAS TODAY. AS OF 07Z...THE COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS...AND
IT WILL CONTINUE MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD ENTER
THE NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND 14Z. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...PERHAPS NOT EXITING THE
FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG WITH 30+ KT JET AT 850 MB WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN GUSTY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON BEHIND THE
FRONT...PEAKING FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD OCCASIONAL FLIRT WITH LOW-END WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND SPOTTY
AND NO ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY PLANNED.

THE FRONT WILL BRING MODEST COOLING WITH IT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THE WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER /SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS/. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW THIN/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL THICKEN/LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. EVEN
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
40S...WITH A FEW 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHWEST ZONES.

LONG TERM...
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW NWWD BACK INTO WTX ON THE LLJ
MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWER AND
T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER IN THE NM HIGHLANDS
AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION. IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS MONDAY
EVENING. THE NAM SUGGESTS IT COULD MAKE IT TO THE STATE
LINE...BUT IT MAY BE OVER-ZEALOUS WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF NW MX INTO SW TX ON
TUESDAY...TRENDING A BIT SLOWER IN THE NAM AND ECMWF THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS KEEPS OUR FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY AS THE BEST LIFT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND THE DEEPER MOISTER SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
THE NAM...SREF AND ECMWF ARE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP CHANCES. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO ADJUST TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR THE OTHER AT THIS
POINT SINCE THE STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ABOUT 500 MILES OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA. BLENDED GUIDANCE POPS RANGE FROM ABOUT 20 PERCENT
IN THE NW TO 30 PERCENT IN THE SE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
COMPROMISE FOR NOW. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED BY ANY MOIST CONVECTION. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS IN THE MORNING AND THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE ARE STILL IN
QUESTION. IF SURFACE TEMPS CAN WARM INTO THE 80S AND THE MORE
ROBUST SURFACE DEWPOINTS VERIFY...WE COULD SEE CAPES IN THE RANGE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER T-STORM CELLS DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR.

AFTER THAT WAVE PASSES...WE EXPECT A DRY...BREEZY AND WARM PERIOD
AS SWIFT WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS DOWNSTREAM
OF A UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...EXPOUNDED UPON BELOW. AS
IT LOOKS NOW...WED WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THU AND FRIDAY...AND DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. WE EXPECT COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON SATURDAY.
THE GFS SHOWS A QUICK TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTERCEPTING RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS NM
AND WTX...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIP SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS
TRANSITION AND THUS IS WARMER AND DRIER NEXT WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS
MORNING...EXITING THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVELY HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT...IT WILL
CREATE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND HUMIDITIES SLOWLY IMPROVE...BRINGING AN
END TO THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

A PERIOD OF DEEP...DRY...WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS AREA LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPROCK BOTH
AFTERNOONS...AND POSSIBLY INTO ADJACENT PORTION OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR TO
DECISIVELY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT ANY TREND TOWARD HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  38  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         74  39  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     76  40  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     80  43  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       80  42  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   83  43  73  51 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    83  44  73  52 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     82  45  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          84  46  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  49  76  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23
212
FXUS64 KLUB 290801
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT BUT RELATIVELY
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE DAKOTAS. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN DISPLACED
WELL TO OUR NORTH AS IT MAINTAINS AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...BUT IT
WILL DELIVER A COLD FRONT TO WEST TEXAS TODAY. AS OF 07Z...THE COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS...AND
IT WILL CONTINUE MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD ENTER
THE NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND 14Z. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...PERHAPS NOT EXITING THE
FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG WITH 30+ KT JET AT 850 MB WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN GUSTY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON BEHIND THE
FRONT...PEAKING FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD OCCASIONAL FLIRT WITH LOW-END WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND SPOTTY
AND NO ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY PLANNED.

THE FRONT WILL BRING MODEST COOLING WITH IT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THE WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER /SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS/. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW THIN/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL THICKEN/LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. EVEN
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
40S...WITH A FEW 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHWEST ZONES.

.LONG TERM...
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW NWWD BACK INTO WTX ON THE LLJ
MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWER AND
T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER IN THE NM HIGHLANDS
AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION. IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS MONDAY
EVENING. THE NAM SUGGESTS IT COULD MAKE IT TO THE STATE
LINE...BUT IT MAY BE OVER-ZEALOUS WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF NW MX INTO SW TX ON
TUESDAY...TRENDING A BIT SLOWER IN THE NAM AND ECMWF THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS KEEPS OUR FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY AS THE BEST LIFT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND THE DEEPER MOISTER SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
THE NAM...SREF AND ECMWF ARE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP CHANCES. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO ADJUST TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR THE OTHER AT THIS
POINT SINCE THE STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ABOUT 500 MILES OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA. BLENDED GUIDANCE POPS RANGE FROM ABOUT 20 PERCENT
IN THE NW TO 30 PERCENT IN THE SE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
COMPROMISE FOR NOW. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED BY ANY MOIST CONVECTION. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS IN THE MORNING AND THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE ARE STILL IN
QUESTION. IF SURFACE TEMPS CAN WARM INTO THE 80S AND THE MORE
ROBUST SURFACE DEWPOINTS VERIFY...WE COULD SEE CAPES IN THE RANGE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER T-STORM CELLS DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR.

AFTER THAT WAVE PASSES...WE EXPECT A DRY...BREEZY AND WARM PERIOD
AS SWIFT WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS DOWNSTREAM
OF A UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...EXPOUNDED UPON BELOW. AS
IT LOOKS NOW...WED WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THU AND FRIDAY...AND DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. WE EXPECT COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON SATURDAY.
THE GFS SHOWS A QUICK TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTERCEPTING RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS NM
AND WTX...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIP SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS
TRANSITION AND THUS IS WARMER AND DRIER NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS
MORNING...EXITING THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVELY HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT...IT WILL
CREATE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND HUMIDITIES SLOWLY IMPROVE...BRINGING AN
END TO THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

A PERIOD OF DEEP...DRY...WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS AREA LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPROCK BOTH
AFTERNOONS...AND POSSIBLY INTO ADJACENT PORTION OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR TO
DECISIVELY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT ANY TREND TOWARD HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  38  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         74  39  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     76  40  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     80  43  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       80  42  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   83  43  73  51 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    83  44  73  52 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     82  45  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          84  46  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  49  76  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33
023
FXUS64 KLUB 290452 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
PREVIOUS THINKING CONTINUES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE MORNING BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WIND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEED WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET
SUNDAY NIGHT AND SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SWING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OVER
THE TAF SITES...WIND WILL SWING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED
TO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UA TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND UA RIDGING COMMENCING TO
SPREAD OVERHEAD HAS LED TO CONTINUAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RATHER THIN HIGH CLOUDS/WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE STREAMED IN ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING AT
THE SFC...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WRN AND
NWRN SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
COURTESY OF AN UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS /THANKS TO THE UA
RIDGE/ AND 850 MB TEMPS. AS OF 20Z...KLBB HAD A TEMP OF 86
DEGREES...WHICH IS 4 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN 1963. WITH
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUNLIGHT...WE SHALL SEE IF WE CAN TIE/BREAK
THE RECORD. EARLIER THIS MORNING...SFC WINDS WERE FROM A S-SW WIND
DIRECTION BUT HAS SINCE VEERED TO THE N-NW ACROSS ALL BUT THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE S-SW SFC WINDS PERSISTED. THIS WIND SHIFT IS
COURTESY OF A SFC LOW THAT HAS PROGRESSED ESE ACROSS THE FA. MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS SFC LOW BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO THE E-
SE CWA-WIDE /AND AT TIMES BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/. DUE TO THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...PWATS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 0.50-0.60 INCH
RANGE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE SAID AREA FROM THE
EAST. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING SUB-VFR VIS APPROACHING
KCDS...THOUGH SFC WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE W-NW BY AOA 29/09Z MAY
MITIGATE THIS FROM COMING INTO FRUITION /HOWEVER IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL/. WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING A FOG MENTION FOR THIS WX PACKAGE
ATTM...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO ANALYZE SATELLITE TRENDS AND
UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

AN UA DISTURBANCE RACING EAST ACROSS SRN ALBERTA/NRN MONTANA LATE
THIS AFTN...WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE SENDING A COLD FRONT DOWN OUR WAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING ITS QUICK ARRIVAL TIME OF IMPINGING ON THE FAR
SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES BY AOA 15Z...THE CENTRAL
ZONES BY AOA 18Z AND CLEARING THE CWA AOA 00Z. THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING TEMP FORECAST AS AN OBVIOUS TEMP-GRADIENT WILL EXIST:
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER
OF 1-3 MB PER 3 HRS WILL RESULT IN NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25
MPH...WHICH IS MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED A FEW DAYS AGO.
THE OTHER WX FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS...DUE TO WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING/EQUATING WIND SPEED
CRITERIA /20 MPH/ AND TEMPS BEING ABOVE NORM. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA IS PROGGED TO NOT BE TERRIBLY DRY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...CAN NOT RULE OUT ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS WHERE A BRIEF FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING IS LOW ATTM. /29

LONG TERM...
ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DE-AMPLIFICATION EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RE-AMPLIFICATION HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CENTERED TUESDAY GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO FURTHER DAMPEN
THE LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVING OUR WAY...CURRENTLY
600-700 MILES WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD
MOISTEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND
COMPONENTS PREVAILING...ALTHOUGH WRF/NAM CERTAINLY LOOKS OVERDONE
THIS REGARDS. SLOWER APPROACH OF THE SHORT-WAVE ALONE REQUIRED
TRIMMING THUNDER MENTION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FACTOR IN ABOVE
ISSUES AND WE ONLY COULD RETAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER FAVORING
MAINLY EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY.

AIRMASS SHOULD RETURN MORE SOLIDLY INTO DRY AND WARM MODE WITH
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY ZONAL COMPONENTS ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A WEAK PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN BUT EVEN SO WOULD RESULT IN VEERING AND DRYING LOWER
LEVELS WITH A SOLID WARMING PUSH. AND WE CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHALLOW FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY MAINLY NORTHEAST PER GFS BUT
DONT SEE THIS ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. WE HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER YET EACH DAY THOUGH STILL A COUPLE NOTCHES BELOW
POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THOSE DAYS. SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
PROMINENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD CARVE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND WILL DRAG NEXT COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD...THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER SUPPLY OF MODIFIED
CANADIAN OR CANADIAN-PACIFIC AIR SO SHOULD BRING ON A COUPLE
COOLER DAYS. DEEPENING OF A TROUGH TO OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
MIGHT EVENTUALLY ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATE WEEKEND OR
EARLY THE NEXT WEEK...BUT SOLUTIONS TOO OUT OF PHASE FOR MORE THAN
A PASSING MEH FOR NOW. /05 RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AT LEAST
FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENTS ALOFT AND PREVAILING SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS UNCERTAIN IF THEY WILL
APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME BUT TIME OF YEAR SAYS WE
NEED TO KEEP A LOOKOUT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        44  73  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         47  75  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  76  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  80  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       49  80  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  86  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  84  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     55  89  51  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/14
505
FXUS64 KLUB 282342 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SWING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OVER
THE TAF SITES...WIND WILL SWING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED
TO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UA TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND UA RIDGING COMMENCING TO
SPREAD OVERHEAD HAS LED TO CONTINUAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RATHER THIN HIGH CLOUDS/WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE STREAMED IN ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING AT
THE SFC...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WRN AND
NWRN SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
COURTESY OF AN UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS /THANKS TO THE UA
RIDGE/ AND 850 MB TEMPS. AS OF 20Z...KLBB HAD A TEMP OF 86
DEGREES...WHICH IS 4 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN 1963. WITH
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUNLIGHT...WE SHALL SEE IF WE CAN TIE/BREAK
THE RECORD. EARLIER THIS MORNING...SFC WINDS WERE FROM A S-SW WIND
DIRECTION BUT HAS SINCE VEERED TO THE N-NW ACROSS ALL BUT THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE S-SW SFC WINDS PERSISTED. THIS WIND SHIFT IS
COURTESY OF A SFC LOW THAT HAS PROGRESSED ESE ACROSS THE FA. MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS SFC LOW BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO THE E-
SE CWA-WIDE /AND AT TIMES BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/. DUE TO THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...PWATS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 0.50-0.60 INCH
RANGE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE SAID AREA FROM THE
EAST. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING SUB-VFR VIS APPROACHING
KCDS...THOUGH SFC WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE W-NW BY AOA 29/09Z MAY
MITIGATE THIS FROM COMING INTO FRUITION /HOWEVER IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL/. WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING A FOG MENTION FOR THIS WX PACKAGE
ATTM...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO ANALYZE SATELLITE TRENDS AND
UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

AN UA DISTURBANCE RACING EAST ACROSS SRN ALBERTA/NRN MONTANA LATE
THIS AFTN...WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE SENDING A COLD FRONT DOWN OUR WAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING ITS QUICK ARRIVAL TIME OF IMPINGING ON THE FAR
SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES BY AOA 15Z...THE CENTRAL
ZONES BY AOA 18Z AND CLEARING THE CWA AOA 00Z. THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING TEMP FORECAST AS AN OBVIOUS TEMP-GRADIENT WILL EXIST:
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER
OF 1-3 MB PER 3 HRS WILL RESULT IN NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25
MPH...WHICH IS MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED A FEW DAYS AGO.
THE OTHER WX FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS...DUE TO WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING/EQUATING WIND SPEED
CRITERIA /20 MPH/ AND TEMPS BEING ABOVE NORM. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA IS PROGGED TO NOT BE TERRIBLY DRY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...CAN NOT RULE OUT ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS WHERE A BRIEF FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING IS LOW ATTM. /29

LONG TERM...
ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DE-AMPLIFICATION EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RE-AMPLIFICATION HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CENTERED TUESDAY GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO FURTHER DAMPEN
THE LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVING OUR WAY...CURRENTLY
600-700 MILES WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD
MOISTEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND
COMPONENTS PREVAILING...ALTHOUGH WRF/NAM CERTAINLY LOOKS OVERDONE
THIS REGARDS. SLOWER APPROACH OF THE SHORT-WAVE ALONE REQUIRED
TRIMMING THUNDER MENTION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FACTOR IN ABOVE
ISSUES AND WE ONLY COULD RETAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER FAVORING
MAINLY EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY.

AIRMASS SHOULD RETURN MORE SOLIDLY INTO DRY AND WARM MODE WITH
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY ZONAL COMPONENTS ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A WEAK PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN BUT EVEN SO WOULD RESULT IN VEERING AND DRYING LOWER
LEVELS WITH A SOLID WARMING PUSH. AND WE CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHALLOW FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY MAINLY NORTHEAST PER GFS BUT
DONT SEE THIS ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. WE HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER YET EACH DAY THOUGH STILL A COUPLE NOTCHES BELOW
POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THOSE DAYS. SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
PROMINENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD CARVE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND WILL DRAG NEXT COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD...THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER SUPPLY OF MODIFIED
CANADIAN OR CANADIAN-PACIFIC AIR SO SHOULD BRING ON A COUPLE
COOLER DAYS. DEEPENING OF A TROUGH TO OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
MIGHT EVENTUALLY ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATE WEEKEND OR
EARLY THE NEXT WEEK...BUT SOLUTIONS TOO OUT OF PHASE FOR MORE THAN
A PASSING MEH FOR NOW. /05 RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AT LEAST
FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENTS ALOFT AND PREVAILING SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS UNCERTAIN IF THEY WILL
APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME BUT TIME OF YEAR SAYS WE
NEED TO KEEP A LOOKOUT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        44  73  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         47  75  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  76  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  80  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       49  80  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  86  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  84  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     55  89  51  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
052
FXUS64 KLUB 282010
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
UA TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND UA RIDGING COMMENCING TO
SPREAD OVERHEAD HAS LED TO CONTINUAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RATHER THIN HIGH CLOUDS/WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE STREAMED IN ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING AT
THE SFC...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WRN AND
NWRN SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
COURTESY OF AN UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS /THANKS TO THE UA
RIDGE/ AND 850 MB TEMPS. AS OF 20Z...KLBB HAD A TEMP OF 86
DEGREES...WHICH IS 4 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN 1963. WITH
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUNLIGHT...WE SHALL SEE IF WE CAN TIE/BREAK
THE RECORD. EARLIER THIS MORNING...SFC WINDS WERE FROM A S-SW WIND
DIRECTION BUT HAS SINCE VEERED TO THE N-NW ACROSS ALL BUT THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE S-SW SFC WINDS PERSISTED. THIS WIND SHIFT IS
COURTESY OF A SFC LOW THAT HAS PROGRESSED ESE ACROSS THE FA. MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS SFC LOW BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO THE E-
SE CWA-WIDE /AND AT TIMES BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/. DUE TO THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...PWATS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 0.50-0.60 INCH
RANGE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE SAID AREA FROM THE
EAST. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING SUB-VFR VIS APPROACHING
KCDS...THOUGH SFC WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE W-NW BY AOA 29/09Z MAY
MITIGATE THIS FROM COMING INTO FRUITION /HOWEVER IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL/. WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING A FOG MENTION FOR THIS WX PACKAGE
ATTM...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO ANALYZE SATELLITE TRENDS AND
UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

AN UA DISTURBANCE RACING EAST ACROSS SRN ALBERTA/NRN MONTANA LATE
THIS AFTN...WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE SENDING A COLD FRONT DOWN OUR WAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING ITS QUICK ARRIVAL TIME OF IMPINGING ON THE FAR
SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES BY AOA 15Z...THE CENTRAL
ZONES BY AOA 18Z AND CLEARING THE CWA AOA 00Z. THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING TEMP FORECAST AS AN OBVIOUS TEMP-GRADIENT WILL EXIST:
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER
OF 1-3 MB PER 3 HRS WILL RESULT IN NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25
MPH...WHICH IS MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED A FEW DAYS AGO.
THE OTHER WX FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS...DUE TO WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING/EQUATING WIND SPEED
CRITERIA /20 MPH/ AND TEMPS BEING ABOVE NORM. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA IS PROGGED TO NOT BE TERRIBLY DRY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...CAN NOT RULE OUT ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS WHERE A BRIEF FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING IS LOW ATTM. /29

.LONG TERM...
ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DE-AMPLIFICATION EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RE-AMPLIFICATION HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CENTERED TUESDAY GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO FURTHER DAMPEN
THE LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVING OUR WAY...CURRENTLY
600-700 MILES WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD
MOISTEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND
COMPONENTS PREVAILING...ALTHOUGH WRF/NAM CERTAINLY LOOKS OVERDONE
THIS REGARDS. SLOWER APPROACH OF THE SHORT-WAVE ALONE REQUIRED
TRIMMING THUNDER MENTION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FACTOR IN ABOVE
ISSUES AND WE ONLY COULD RETAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER FAVORING
MAINLY EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY.

AIRMASS SHOULD RETURN MORE SOLIDLY INTO DRY AND WARM MODE WITH
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY ZONAL COMPONENTS ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A WEAK PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN BUT EVEN SO WOULD RESULT IN VEERING AND DRYING LOWER
LEVELS WITH A SOLID WARMING PUSH. AND WE CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHALLOW FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY MAINLY NORTHEAST PER GFS BUT
DONT SEE THIS ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. WE HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER YET EACH DAY THOUGH STILL A COUPLE NOTCHES BELOW
POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THOSE DAYS. SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
PROMINENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD CARVE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND WILL DRAG NEXT COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD...THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER SUPPLY OF MODIFIED
CANADIAN OR CANADIAN-PACIFIC AIR SO SHOULD BRING ON A COUPLE
COOLER DAYS. DEEPENING OF A TROUGH TO OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
MIGHT EVENTUALLY ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATE WEEKEND OR
EARLY THE NEXT WEEK...BUT SOLUTIONS TOO OUT OF PHASE FOR MORE THAN
A PASSING MEH FOR NOW. /05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AT LEAST
FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENTS ALOFT AND PREVAILING SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS UNCERTAIN IF THEY WILL
APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME BUT TIME OF YEAR SAYS WE
NEED TO KEEP A LOOKOUT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  74  40  72 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         46  76  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  79  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  82  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  82  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  83  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  85  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     56  89  52  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05
637
FXUS64 KLUB 281721
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1221 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
OCCURRING AT KLBB AND KPVW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OCCURRING MORE SO AT KCDS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES...AND VEER FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. NORTH WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEYOND 12 KTS SHORTLY AFTER THIS TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF VFR/MVFR FOG NEARING KCDS
FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE COMPUTER
MODELS KEEP IT EAST OF KCDS DUE TO WINDS VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WILL VISIT WEST TEXAS TODAY AS DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW EARLY TODAY AND IT COULD PROVIDE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT BUT SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
MOST PERSISTENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...NORTH OF THE LOW...AND THESE WINDS WILL ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR FOG NEAR
CHILDRESS BY EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE
WINDS HERE WILL ALSO TURN WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP
THE BETTER RISK OF FOG TO THE EAST. THE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL BUT
PLEASANT SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S /THE RECORD HIGH FOR LUBBOCK TODAY IS 90 DEGREES/...WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTHWEST TO MID-50S
SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND FIRE WEATHER.
THE LATEST PROGS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER...CLEARING ALL BUT THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY N-NE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT THESE SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...NOT
AS STRONG AS LAST WEDNESDAY/S FRONT. THIS QUICKER TREND SUPPORTS
ANOTHER DOWNWARD NUDGE IN HIGH TEMPS...WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM MID
70S NW TO UPPER 80S SE. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE FIRE DANGER
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH AN ELEVATED THREAT MAY YET MATERIALIZE ACROSS
THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THAT
FRONT DISSOLVES.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GOOD MOISTURE RETURN ON THOSE E-SE BREEZES
MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 50S MONDAY EVENING. THIS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE BUT THE MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SOME LOW
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THIS TROUGH
ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY
ESTABLISHED...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT SHOT AT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...FOCUSED ON THE ROLLING PLAINS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST
INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT.

A PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE ARE WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
MED-RANGE GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON A WEAK FRONT FOR THURSDAY...BUT IT
SHOULDN/T INFLUENCE THE WEATHER MUCH EITHER WAY. A STRONGER FRONT
IS STILL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...BUT WITH ONLY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY FROPA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN
COULD DEVELOP FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SWERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  74  40  72 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         46  76  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  79  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  82  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  82  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  83  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  85  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     56  89  52  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
016
FXUS64 KLUB 281136
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL BE THE RULE TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT THOUGH SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME
EASTERLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SWINGING BACK AROUND TO THE WEST
EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF BR/FG DEVELOPMENT AT
KCDS EARLY SUNDAY...WITH DRIER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AT THE
OTHER TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WILL VISIT WEST TEXAS TODAY AS DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW EARLY TODAY AND IT COULD PROVIDE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT BUT SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
MOST PERSISTENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...NORTH OF THE LOW...AND THESE WINDS WILL ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR FOG NEAR
CHILDRESS BY EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE
WINDS HERE WILL ALSO TURN WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP
THE BETTER RISK OF FOG TO THE EAST. THE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL BUT
PLEASANT SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S /THE RECORD HIGH FOR LUBBOCK TODAY IS 90 DEGREES/...WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTHWEST TO MID-50S
SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND FIRE WEATHER.
THE LATEST PROGS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER...CLEARING ALL BUT THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY N-NE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT THESE SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...NOT
AS STRONG AS LAST WEDNESDAY/S FRONT. THIS QUICKER TREND SUPPORTS
ANOTHER DOWNWARD NUDGE IN HIGH TEMPS...WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM MID
70S NW TO UPPER 80S SE. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE FIRE DANGER
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH AN ELEVATED THREAT MAY YET MATERIALIZE ACROSS
THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THAT
FRONT DISSOLVES.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GOOD MOISTURE RETURN ON THOSE E-SE BREEZES
MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 50S MONDAY EVENING. THIS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE BUT THE MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SOME LOW
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THIS TROUGH
ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY
ESTABLISHED...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT SHOT AT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...FOCUSED ON THE ROLLING PLAINS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST
INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT.

A PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE ARE WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
MED-RANGE GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON A WEAK FRONT FOR THURSDAY...BUT IT
SHOULDN/T INFLUENCE THE WEATHER MUCH EITHER WAY. A STRONGER FRONT
IS STILL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...BUT WITH ONLY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY FROPA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN
COULD DEVELOP FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SWERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        82  45  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         83  46  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     83  47  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     86  48  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       86  48  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   86  48  84  46 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    88  49  84  46 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     87  51  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          88  52  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  56  89  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23
661
FXUS64 KLUB 280816
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
316 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WILL VISIT WEST TEXAS TODAY AS DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW EARLY TODAY AND IT COULD PROVIDE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT BUT SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
MOST PERSISTENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...NORTH OF THE LOW...AND THESE WINDS WILL ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR FOG NEAR
CHILDRESS BY EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE
WINDS HERE WILL ALSO TURN WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP
THE BETTER RISK OF FOG TO THE EAST. THE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL BUT
PLEASANT SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S /THE RECORD HIGH FOR LUBBOCK TODAY IS 90 DEGREES/...WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTHWEST TO MID-50S
SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND FIRE WEATHER.
THE LATEST PROGS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER...CLEARING ALL BUT THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY N-NE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT THESE SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...NOT
AS STRONG AS LAST WEDNESDAY/S FRONT. THIS QUICKER TREND SUPPORTS
ANOTHER DOWNWARD NUDGE IN HIGH TEMPS...WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM MID
70S NW TO UPPER 80S SE. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE FIRE DANGER
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH AN ELEVATED THREAT MAY YET MATERIALIZE ACROSS
THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THAT
FRONT DISSOLVES.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GOOD MOISTURE RETURN ON THOSE E-SE BREEZES
MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 50S MONDAY EVENING. THIS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE BUT THE MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SOME LOW
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THIS TROUGH
ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY
ESTABLISHED...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT SHOT AT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...FOCUSED ON THE ROLLING PLAINS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST
INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT.

A PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE ARE WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
MED-RANGE GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON A WEAK FRONT FOR THURSDAY...BUT IT
SHOULDN/T INFLUENCE THE WEATHER MUCH EITHER WAY. A STRONGER FRONT
IS STILL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...BUT WITH ONLY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY FROPA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN
COULD DEVELOP FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SWERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        82  45  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         83  46  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     83  47  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     86  48  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       86  48  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   86  48  84  46 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    88  49  84  46 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     87  51  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          88  52  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  56  89  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33
864
FXUS64 KLUB 280359
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1059 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR. ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE TROUGH BY MID-MORNING WILL VEER SE
WINDS TO THE NW...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD HOLD AOB 11 KNOTS.

&&

FORECAST DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATE THIS AFTN WAS COMPRISED OF UA TROUGHING
ACROSS THE MID-WEST...AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND
THUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SOME RATHER THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SPILLING IN ACROSS THE CWA AS
A RESULT OF THE FLOW ALOFT. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE PROGRESSING ESE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAVE ALLOWED FOR A COOL SFC
RIDGE TO PUSH IN A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO ACROSS A SWEETWATER
TO BROWNFIELD TO NEAR MORTON LINE PER 20Z METARS. AS SUCH...E-SE SFC
WINDS /OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE/ WERE NOTED AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE COLD FRONT TEMPS MANAGED TO STILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS FRONT MORE OR LESS REMAINING WHERE IT
IS NOW THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A SUBTLE
WESTWARD PUSH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS
/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS/...DUE TO A DEVELOPING SFC LOW ACROSS ERN NM THAT
WILL PROMOTE SFC WINDS TO VEER TO THE W-SW.

THE UA RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL COMMENCE TO MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY...
THOUGH IT WILL BE DE-AMPLIFYING AS AN EWRD PROPAGATING NW PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE MOVES ONSHORE. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW WILL SHIFT SE
TO ACROSS THE FA DURING THE AFTN...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF N-NE SFC WINDS. EXPECT THIS WIND SHIFT TO HAVE LITTLE
AFFECT ON TEMPS AS 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE...
RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 80S /OR SOME 6-12 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY/. SO GET READY FOR A RATHER PLEASANT DAY TO START THE
WEEKEND. /29

LONG TERM...
A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
WILL SEND A FAIRLY SHARP COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA...
WITH SOLUTIONS TRENDING SLIGHTLY FASTER. FRONT SHOULD ENTER
NORTHERN ZONES BY MID SUNDAY MORNING...CENTRAL ZONES APPROXIMATELY
MIDDAY...AND EXIT SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON. TIMING
REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR NAILING DOWN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AS MORNING
COOLING BEHIND FRONT NORTHERN ZONES COULD BE EARLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW
DECENT RECOVERY BY LATE IN THE DAY. LIKEWISE...MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON PASSAGE SOUTHERN ZONES LIKELY WOULD BE AFTER A QUICK
WARMUP THROUGH THE 80S AND EVEN POSSIBLY 90S SOME AREAS. WE HAVE
TRIMMED HIGHS JUST A BIT NORTHWEST AND WARMED VERY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO APPROACH AT
LEAST LOW-END WINDY CRITERIA AND CANNOT RULE OUT YET PERHAPS EVEN
STRONGER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS PROBABLY GREATER THAN 30
KNOTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 6 HOURLY SURFACE PRESSURE
SHOVE ON THE ORDER OF 10 MB NORTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FACTOR SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARM AND DRY AIRMASS BEING
REPLACED MIDDAY TO MID AFTERNOON. THERE STILL COULD BE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SUNDAY AS HUMIDITIES FOR THE MOST PART APPEAR TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 25 PERCENT BEFORE COOLING OR WINDS DIMINISH
THREAT.

THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO THE SOUTH AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY EAST
TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IMPROVING INTO
THE UPPER 40S LOW 50S MONDAY. WRF NAM INDICATING DRY-LINE SET UP
LATE MONDAY ALONG NEW MEXICO BORDER AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
ATTEMPT AT MOIST CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS THOUGH FORCING AT THAT TIME
STILL APPEARS WEAK. WE HAVE RETAINED DRY FORECAST LATE MONDAY.

BETTER LIFT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...FAVORING SOUTHERN ZONES...AS A MOSTLY OPEN WAVE EDGES
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WEST TEXAS. SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
SLIGHTLY BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE THOUGH STILL NOT CONVINCING
ENOUGH TO ELEVATE INTO MORE BOLD THUNDER CHANCES. STILL...WE HAVE
EDGED MENTION JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR NOW TO MATCH THE MODEL
TRENDS WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
TUESDAY. DRYNESS IN MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE ALSO STILL APPEARS TO BE A
LIMITATION FOR MORE FAVORABLE CHANCES AND TOTALS.

MILDER AND DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BREAK THROUGH ONCE AGAIN
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT AMPLIFIED PACIFIC TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DRY
AND BREEZY AT LEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY THOUGH
MAJOR SOLUTIONS DISAGREE REGARDING TIMING AND AMPLITUDE...WHILE
THE ECMWF BRINGS A TRAILING WAVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY DELAYING A STRONGER COLD FRONT ABOUT A
DAY BEHIND THE GFS SOLUTION. WE FAVOR BLENDS FOR THE DISTANT
EXTENDED FOR NOW BUT CANNOT AGREE ON PRECIPITATION LATE WEEK GIVEN
THE LARGE DIFFERENCES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
646
FXUS64 KLUB 272256
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
556 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONTD VFR AND SKC WITH WINDS AOB 12 KNOTS. SLY WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL SWING NW-NE SAT MORNING BEHIND A WEAK TROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATE THIS AFTN WAS COMPRISED OF UA TROUGHING
ACROSS THE MID-WEST...AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND
THUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SOME RATHER THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SPILLING IN ACROSS THE CWA AS
A RESULT OF THE FLOW ALOFT. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE PROGRESSING ESE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAVE ALLOWED FOR A COOL SFC
RIDGE TO PUSH IN A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO ACROSS A SWEETWATER
TO BROWNFIELD TO NEAR MORTON LINE PER 20Z METARS. AS SUCH...E-SE SFC
WINDS /OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE/ WERE NOTED AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE COLD FRONT TEMPS MANAGED TO STILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS FRONT MORE OR LESS REMAINING WHERE IT
IS NOW THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A SUBTLE
WESTWARD PUSH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS
/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS/...DUE TO A DEVELOPING SFC LOW ACROSS ERN NM THAT
WILL PROMOTE SFC WINDS TO VEER TO THE W-SW.

THE UA RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL COMMENCE TO MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY...
THOUGH IT WILL BE DE-AMPLIFYING AS AN EWRD PROPAGATING NW PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE MOVES ONSHORE. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW WILL SHIFT SE
TO ACROSS THE FA DURING THE AFTN...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF N-NE SFC WINDS. EXPECT THIS WIND SHIFT TO HAVE LITTLE
AFFECT ON TEMPS AS 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE...
RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 80S /OR SOME 6-12 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY/. SO GET READY FOR A RATHER PLEASANT DAY TO START THE
WEEKEND. /29

LONG TERM...
A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
WILL SEND A FAIRLY SHARP COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA...
WITH SOLUTIONS TRENDING SLIGHTLY FASTER. FRONT SHOULD ENTER
NORTHERN ZONES BY MID SUNDAY MORNING...CENTRAL ZONES APPROXIMATELY
MIDDAY...AND EXIT SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON. TIMING
REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR NAILING DOWN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AS MORNING
COOLING BEHIND FRONT NORTHERN ZONES COULD BE EARLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW
DECENT RECOVERY BY LATE IN THE DAY. LIKEWISE...MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON PASSAGE SOUTHERN ZONES LIKELY WOULD BE AFTER A QUICK
WARMUP THROUGH THE 80S AND EVEN POSSIBLY 90S SOME AREAS. WE HAVE
TRIMMED HIGHS JUST A BIT NORTHWEST AND WARMED VERY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO APPROACH AT
LEAST LOW-END WINDY CRITERIA AND CANNOT RULE OUT YET PERHAPS EVEN
STRONGER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS PROBABLY GREATER THAN 30
KNOTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 6 HOURLY SURFACE PRESSURE
SHOVE ON THE ORDER OF 10 MB NORTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FACTOR SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARM AND DRY AIRMASS BEING
REPLACED MIDDAY TO MID AFTERNOON. THERE STILL COULD BE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SUNDAY AS HUMIDITIES FOR THE MOST PART APPEAR TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 25 PERCENT BEFORE COOLING OR WINDS DIMINISH
THREAT.

THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO THE SOUTH AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY EAST
TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IMPROVING INTO
THE UPPER 40S LOW 50S MONDAY. WRF NAM INDICATING DRY-LINE SET UP
LATE MONDAY ALONG NEW MEXICO BORDER AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
ATTEMPT AT MOIST CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS THOUGH FORCING AT THAT TIME
STILL APPEARS WEAK. WE HAVE RETAINED DRY FORECAST LATE MONDAY.

BETTER LIFT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...FAVORING SOUTHERN ZONES...AS A MOSTLY OPEN WAVE EDGES
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WEST TEXAS. SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
SLIGHTLY BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE THOUGH STILL NOT CONVINCING
ENOUGH TO ELEVATE INTO MORE BOLD THUNDER CHANCES. STILL...WE HAVE
EDGED MENTION JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR NOW TO MATCH THE MODEL
TRENDS WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
TUESDAY. DRYNESS IN MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE ALSO STILL APPEARS TO BE A
LIMITATION FOR MORE FAVORABLE CHANCES AND TOTALS.

MILDER AND DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BREAK THROUGH ONCE AGAIN
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT AMPLIFIED PACIFIC TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DRY
AND BREEZY AT LEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY THOUGH
MAJOR SOLUTIONS DISAGREE REGARDING TIMING AND AMPLITUDE...WHILE
THE ECMWF BRINGS A TRAILING WAVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY DELAYING A STRONGER COLD FRONT ABOUT A
DAY BEHIND THE GFS SOLUTION. WE FAVOR BLENDS FOR THE DISTANT
EXTENDED FOR NOW BUT CANNOT AGREE ON PRECIPITATION LATE WEEK GIVEN
THE LARGE DIFFERENCES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
733
FXUS64 KLUB 272037
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
337 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATE THIS AFTN WAS COMPRISED OF UA TROUGHING
ACROSS THE MID-WEST...AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND
THUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SOME RATHER THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SPILLING IN ACROSS THE CWA AS
A RESULT OF THE FLOW ALOFT. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE PROGRESSING ESE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAVE ALLOWED FOR A COOL SFC
RIDGE TO PUSH IN A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO ACROSS A SWEETWATER
TO BROWNFIELD TO NEAR MORTON LINE PER 20Z METARS. AS SUCH...E-SE SFC
WINDS /OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE/ WERE NOTED AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE COLD FRONT TEMPS MANAGED TO STILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS FRONT MORE OR LESS REMAINING WHERE IT
IS NOW THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A SUBTLE
WESTWARD PUSH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS
/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS/...DUE TO A DEVELOPING SFC LOW ACROSS ERN NM THAT
WILL PROMOTE SFC WINDS TO VEER TO THE W-SW.

THE UA RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL COMMENCE TO MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY...
THOUGH IT WILL BE DE-AMPLIFYING AS AN EWRD PROPAGATING NW PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE MOVES ONSHORE. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW WILL SHIFT SE
TO ACROSS THE FA DURING THE AFTN...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF N-NE SFC WINDS. EXPECT THIS WIND SHIFT TO HAVE LITTLE
AFFECT ON TEMPS AS 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE...
RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 80S /OR SOME 6-12 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY/. SO GET READY FOR A RATHER PLEASANT DAY TO START THE
WEEKEND. /29


.LONG TERM...
A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
WILL SEND A FAIRLY SHARP COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA...
WITH SOLUTIONS TRENDING SLIGHTLY FASTER. FRONT SHOULD ENTER
NORTHERN ZONES BY MID SUNDAY MORNING...CENTRAL ZONES APPROXIMATELY
MIDDAY...AND EXIT SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON. TIMING
REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR NAILING DOWN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AS MORNING
COOLING BEHIND FRONT NORTHERN ZONES COULD BE EARLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW
DECENT RECOVERY BY LATE IN THE DAY. LIKEWISE...MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON PASSAGE SOUTHERN ZONES LIKELY WOULD BE AFTER A QUICK
WARMUP THROUGH THE 80S AND EVEN POSSIBLY 90S SOME AREAS. WE HAVE
TRIMMED HIGHS JUST A BIT NORTHWEST AND WARMED VERY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO APPROACH AT
LEAST LOW-END WINDY CRITERIA AND CANNOT RULE OUT YET PERHAPS EVEN
STRONGER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS PROBABLY GREATER THAN 30
KNOTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 6 HOURLY SURFACE PRESSURE
SHOVE ON THE ORDER OF 10 MB NORTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FACTOR SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARM AND DRY AIRMASS BEING
REPLACED MIDDAY TO MID AFTERNOON. THERE STILL COULD BE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SUNDAY AS HUMIDITIES FOR THE MOST PART APPEAR TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 25 PERCENT BEFORE COOLING OR WINDS DIMINISH
THREAT.

THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO THE SOUTH AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY EAST
TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IMPROVING INTO
THE UPPER 40S LOW 50S MONDAY. WRF NAM INDICATING DRY-LINE SET UP
LATE MONDAY ALONG NEW MEXICO BORDER AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
ATTEMPT AT MOIST CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS THOUGH FORCING AT THAT TIME
STILL APPEARS WEAK. WE HAVE RETAINED DRY FORECAST LATE MONDAY.

BETTER LIFT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...FAVORING SOUTHERN ZONES...AS A MOSTLY OPEN WAVE EDGES
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WEST TEXAS. SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
SLIGHTLY BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE THOUGH STILL NOT CONVINCING
ENOUGH TO ELEVATE INTO MORE BOLD THUNDER CHANCES. STILL...WE HAVE
EDGED MENTION JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR NOW TO MATCH THE MODEL
TRENDS WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
TUESDAY. DRYNESS IN MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE ALSO STILL APPEARS TO BE A
LIMITATION FOR MORE FAVORABLE CHANCES AND TOTALS.

MILDER AND DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BREAK THROUGH ONCE AGAIN
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT AMPLIFIED PACIFIC TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DRY
AND BREEZY AT LEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY THOUGH
MAJOR SOLUTIONS DISAGREE REGARDING TIMING AND AMPLITUDE...WHILE
THE ECMWF BRINGS A TRAILING WAVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY DELAYING A STRONGER COLD FRONT ABOUT A
DAY BEHIND THE GFS SOLUTION. WE FAVOR BLENDS FOR THE DISTANT
EXTENDED FOR NOW BUT CANNOT AGREE ON PRECIPITATION LATE WEEK GIVEN
THE LARGE DIFFERENCES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        39  80  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         40  82  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     40  83  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     44  85  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       44  85  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   45  84  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  85  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     44  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          45  85  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     47  87  54  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05
869
FXUS64 KLUB 271716
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1216 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WERE OCCURRING AT KLBB AND KCDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MORE OF A NORTHEAST LIGHT WIND OCCURRING AT KCDS DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT...BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING /COULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WELL/. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
AFFECT ALL THREE TAF SITES SATURDAY MORNING THUS VEERING WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST. ALL THE WHILE...FEW-SCT VFR DECKS WILL PASS OVERHEAD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN EASTERN TROUGHING AND
WESTERN RIDGING...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BACKING NORTHWESTERLY AS
THE RIDGE LOOSES AMPLITUDE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A COOL SURFACE HIGH TO CONTINUE TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE NATION. THE BULK OF THE
COLD AIR WILL BE DIRECTED WELL TO OUR EAST...THOUGH A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THE WINDS AROUND TO AN EASTERLY PERSUASION OFF
THE CAPROCK THIS MORNING. THE FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EDGING FURTHER WEST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OUT OF
NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE AREA...ABUNDANT
INSOLATION AND CLIMBING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
WARM UP FROM YESTERDAY...EVEN AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT EDGES IN. ALL-IN-
ALL IT SHOULD BE A GREAT AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND
HIGHS TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
COULD EVEN SQUEAK OUT A FEW LOWER 80S. SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS
WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

LONG TERM...
FOR THE WEEKEND...A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS NW MX
AND THE DESERT SW WITH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE
W-NW FLOW ALOFT STRETCHING FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE FIRST SMALL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS WEST TX ON
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE DISCERNIBLE IMPACT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S.
A WEAK FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING SOME MODEST MOISTURE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. A SHARPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SEND A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT SOUTH TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT/S PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION...RIGHT
NOW WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 70S NW TO NEAR 90 SE.

ON MONDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SW TX WITH ROUGHLY EASTERLY FLOW ADVECTING SOME LOW-LVL
MOISTURE INTO THE FA. AS THE UPPER LOW EDGES CLOSER TO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY...WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS SW TX SHOULD FAVOR
OUR SRN AND SE ZONES FOR PRECIP...BUT WITH QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SRN STREAM SYSTEM WE ARE ONLY GOING UP TO
LOW CHANCE /30 PERCENT/ IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS AT THIS TIME.
PRECIP CHANCES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TX. THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND MORE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH
SHOULD THEN WARM BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WED AND
THU DESPITE PERHAPS ANOTHER WEAK FROPA. BY NEXT FRIDAY...A
STRONGER FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS TOO FAR NORTH TO
BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES...BUT THE FRONT COULD
EFFECTUATE A SUBSTANTIAL COOL-DOWN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        39  80  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         40  82  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     40  83  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     44  85  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       44  85  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   45  84  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  85  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     44  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          45  85  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     47  87  54  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
390
FXUS64 KLUB 271119
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
GREAT FLYING WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE INCLUDING LIGHT
/THOUGH SOMEWHAT VARIABLE/ WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A
FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN EASTERN TROUGHING AND
WESTERN RIDGING...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BACKING NORTHWESTERLY AS
THE RIDGE LOOSES AMPLITUDE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A COOL SURFACE HIGH TO CONTINUE TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE NATION. THE BULK OF THE
COLD AIR WILL BE DIRECTED WELL TO OUR EAST...THOUGH A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THE WINDS AROUND TO AN EASTERLY PERSUASION OFF
THE CAPROCK THIS MORNING. THE FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EDGING FURTHER WEST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OUT OF
NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE AREA...ABUNDANT
INSOLATION AND CLIMBING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
WARM UP FROM YESTERDAY...EVEN AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT EDGES IN. ALL-IN-
ALL IT SHOULD BE A GREAT AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND
HIGHS TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
COULD EVEN SQUEAK OUT A FEW LOWER 80S. SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS
WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

LONG TERM...
FOR THE WEEKEND...A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS NW MX
AND THE DESERT SW WITH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE
W-NW FLOW ALOFT STRETCHING FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE FIRST SMALL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS WEST TX ON
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE DISCERNIBLE IMPACT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S.
A WEAK FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING SOME MODEST MOISTURE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. A SHARPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SEND A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT SOUTH TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT/S PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION...RIGHT
NOW WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 70S NW TO NEAR 90 SE.

ON MONDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SW TX WITH ROUGHLY EASTERLY FLOW ADVECTING SOME LOW-LVL
MOISTURE INTO THE FA. AS THE UPPER LOW EDGES CLOSER TO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY...WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS SW TX SHOULD FAVOR
OUR SRN AND SE ZONES FOR PRECIP...BUT WITH QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SRN STREAM SYSTEM WE ARE ONLY GOING UP TO
LOW CHANCE /30 PERCENT/ IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS AT THIS TIME.
PRECIP CHANCES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TX. THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND MORE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH
SHOULD THEN WARM BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WED AND
THU DESPITE PERHAPS ANOTHER WEAK FROPA. BY NEXT FRIDAY...A
STRONGER FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS TOO FAR NORTH TO
BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES...BUT THE FRONT COULD
EFFECTUATE A SUBSTANTIAL COOL-DOWN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  39  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         74  40  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     75  40  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     79  44  85  47 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       78  44  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   80  45  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    81  46  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     74  44  86  50 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          76  45  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     76  47  87  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23
242
FXUS64 KLUB 270750
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
250 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN EASTERN TROUGHING AND
WESTERN RIDGING...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BACKING NORTHWESTERLY AS
THE RIDGE LOOSES AMPLITUDE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A COOL SURFACE HIGH TO CONTINUE TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE NATION. THE BULK OF THE
COLD AIR WILL BE DIRECTED WELL TO OUR EAST...THOUGH A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THE WINDS AROUND TO AN EASTERLY PERSUASION OFF
THE CAPROCK THIS MORNING. THE FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EDGING FURTHER WEST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OUT OF
NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE AREA...ABUNDANT
INSOLATION AND CLIMBING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
WARM UP FROM YESTERDAY...EVEN AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT EDGES IN. ALL-IN-
ALL IT SHOULD BE A GREAT AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND
HIGHS TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
COULD EVEN SQUEAK OUT A FEW LOWER 80S. SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS
WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...
FOR THE WEEKEND...A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS NW MX
AND THE DESERT SW WITH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE
W-NW FLOW ALOFT STRETCHING FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE FIRST SMALL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS WEST TX ON
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE DISCERNIBLE IMPACT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S.
A WEAK FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING SOME MODEST MOISTURE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. A SHARPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SEND A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT SOUTH TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT/S PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION...RIGHT
NOW WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 70S NW TO NEAR 90 SE.

ON MONDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SW TX WITH ROUGHLY EASTERLY FLOW ADVECTING SOME LOW-LVL
MOISTURE INTO THE FA. AS THE UPPER LOW EDGES CLOSER TO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY...WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS SW TX SHOULD FAVOR
OUR SRN AND SE ZONES FOR PRECIP...BUT WITH QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SRN STREAM SYSTEM WE ARE ONLY GOING UP TO
LOW CHANCE /30 PERCENT/ IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS AT THIS TIME.
PRECIP CHANCES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TX. THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND MORE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH
SHOULD THEN WARM BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WED AND
THU DESPITE PERHAPS ANOTHER WEAK FROPA. BY NEXT FRIDAY...A
STRONGER FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS TOO FAR NORTH TO
BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES...BUT THE FRONT COULD
EFFECTUATE A SUBSTANTIAL COOL-DOWN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  39  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         74  40  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     75  40  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     79  44  85  47 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       78  44  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   80  45  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    81  46  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     74  44  86  50 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          76  45  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     76  47  87  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33
220
FXUS64 KLUB 270428
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1128 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE THROUGH CDS
AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE STALLING NEAR PVW AND LBB BY LATE
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IN PLACE THAN 24 HOURS AGO.  SURFACE RIDGE HAS
SETTLED IN OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG WE CAN KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.  DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BUT MODELS DO
GRADUALLY VEER WIND DIRECTIONS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY
SUNRISE AND INCREASE SPEEDS TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...BOTH OF WHICH MAY
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT.

RETURN TO WEST WIND IS SHORT LIVED AS A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  THIS MAY RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
DURING THE DAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING IMPACTING THE WRN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EWRD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...THUS PROMOTING
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND AN UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS. AS
SUCH...ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH IS STILL EXPECTED DESPITE AN ERWD
PROPAGATING UA DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SENDING A COLD
FRONT TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA SUNDAY AFTN. MEXMOS HAS BACKED OFF ON
ADVERTISING LOWER 90 DEGREE TEMPS ON SUNDAY...GIVEN THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT CURRENTLY BEING SHOWN TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE AFTN
VERSUS LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE TEMP ON
SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FROPA.
WILL LEAN TOWARDS TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NWRN
ZONES /DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT/ TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS ATTM.

THEREAFTER 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS WILL DECLINE AS AN UA DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE GFS IS STILL THE MOST BULLISH AND
STRONGEST WITH THE SAID DISTURBANCE AS COMPARED TO THE WEAKER
DEPICTION PER THE ECMWF. HOWEVER THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE WHILST OPENING UP INTO AN UA
TROUGH...HENCE POSSIBLY TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF. AS A
RESULT...BEST POPS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA. RATHER
LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ARE STILL BEING SHOWN ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN ZONES
PER THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE PER THE ECMWF. MEXMOS TEMPS AS
A RESULT ARE NOT QUITE AS COOL NEXT WEEK AS PREVIOUS
ITERATIONS...GIVEN DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN EXPANSIVE PRECIP AND
THICK CLOUD COVER. THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION EXHIBITING HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN ZONES
TUESDAY APPEAR REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
704
FXUS64 KLUB 262321
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THRU FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE
THROUGH CDS AND PERHAPS PVW AFTER SUNRISE AHEAD OF N-NE
WINDS BEFORE DISSOLVING SOON THEREAFTER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IN PLACE THAN 24 HOURS AGO.  SURFACE RIDGE HAS
SETTLED IN OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG WE CAN KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.  DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BUT MODELS DO
GRADUALLY VEER WIND DIRECTIONS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY
SUNRISE AND INCREASE SPEEDS TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...BOTH OF WHICH MAY
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT.

RETURN TO WEST WIND IS SHORT LIVED AS A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  THIS MAY RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
DURING THE DAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING IMPACTING THE WRN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EWRD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...THUS PROMOTING
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND AN UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS. AS
SUCH...ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH IS STILL EXPECTED DESPITE AN ERWD
PROPAGATING UA DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SENDING A COLD
FRONT TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA SUNDAY AFTN. MEXMOS HAS BACKED OFF ON
ADVERTISING LOWER 90 DEGREE TEMPS ON SUNDAY...GIVEN THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT CURRENTLY BEING SHOWN TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE AFTN
VERSUS LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE TEMP ON
SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FROPA.
WILL LEAN TOWARDS TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NWRN
ZONES /DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT/ TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS ATTM.

THEREAFTER 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS WILL DECLINE AS AN UA DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE GFS IS STILL THE MOST BULLISH AND
STRONGEST WITH THE SAID DISTURBANCE AS COMPARED TO THE WEAKER
DEPICTION PER THE ECMWF. HOWEVER THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE WHILST OPENING UP INTO AN UA
TROUGH...HENCE POSSIBLY TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF. AS A
RESULT...BEST POPS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA. RATHER
LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ARE STILL BEING SHOWN ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN ZONES
PER THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE PER THE ECMWF. MEXMOS TEMPS AS
A RESULT ARE NOT QUITE AS COOL NEXT WEEK AS PREVIOUS
ITERATIONS...GIVEN DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN EXPANSIVE PRECIP AND
THICK CLOUD COVER. THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION EXHIBITING HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN ZONES
TUESDAY APPEAR REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
303
FXUS64 KLUB 262029
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
329 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IN PLACE THAN 24 HOURS AGO.  SURFACE RIDGE HAS
SETTLED IN OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG WE CAN KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.  DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BUT MODELS DO
GRADUALLY VEER WIND DIRECTIONS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY
SUNRISE AND INCREASE SPEEDS TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...BOTH OF WHICH MAY
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT.

RETURN TO WEST WIND IS SHORT LIVED AS A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  THIS MAY RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
DURING THE DAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

JORDAN

.LONG TERM...
AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING IMPACTING THE WRN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EWRD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...THUS PROMOTING
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND AN UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS. AS
SUCH...ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH IS STILL EXPECTED DESPITE AN ERWD
PROPAGATING UA DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SENDING A COLD
FRONT TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA SUNDAY AFTN. MEXMOS HAS BACKED OFF ON
ADVERTISING LOWER 90 DEGREE TEMPS ON SUNDAY...GIVEN THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT CURRENTLY BEING SHOWN TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE AFTN
VERSUS LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE TEMP ON
SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FROPA.
WILL LEAN TOWARDS TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NWRN
ZONES /DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT/ TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS ATTM.

THEREAFTER 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS WILL DECLINE AS AN UA DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE GFS IS STILL THE MOST BULLISH AND
STRONGEST WITH THE SAID DISTURBANCE AS COMPARED TO THE WEAKER
DEPICTION PER THE ECMWF. HOWEVER THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE WHILST OPENING UP INTO AN UA
TROUGH...HENCE POSSIBLY TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF. AS A
RESULT...BEST POPS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA. RATHER
LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ARE STILL BEING SHOWN ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN ZONES
PER THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE PER THE ECMWF. MEXMOS TEMPS AS
A RESULT ARE NOT QUITE AS COOL NEXT WEEK AS PREVIOUS
ITERATIONS...GIVEN DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN EXPANSIVE PRECIP AND
THICK CLOUD COVER. THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION EXHIBITING HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN ZONES
TUESDAY APPEAR REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        35  75  40  81 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         36  75  40  83 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  76  41  84 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  78  44  85 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       39  78  43  86 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   40  79  46  86 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  79  45  86 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     43  75  45  86 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          42  77  46  86 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     44  78  49  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/29
917
FXUS64 KLUB 261721 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1221 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A
DECREASING TREND TO VERY LIGHT WINDS BY 00 UTC/7PM. WINDS WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SW THEN WEST TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AT 230 AM...THE COLD FRONT WHICH SWEPT THROUGH WEST TEXAS YESTERDAY
WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH DALLAS TO THE EAST AND SONORA TO THE
SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO RELAX ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AREA...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 4 AM OR SO. ALSO...IR IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND
OF LOW STRATUS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TODAY...WE WILL SEE
THE NORTH WINDS COME BACK UP BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE AS WE GET SOME
INITIAL MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...BUT THE WIND WILL RELAX
MID-MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. MODESTLY
COOL NRLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY
COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH THEN WEST. LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
30S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL LARGELY REMAIN UNEVENTFUL. LONG WAVE
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EAST BY
THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THIS
WILL LEAD TO RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MEXMOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S BY SUNDAY. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL SEND A COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION BRINGING A BRIEF
BREAK TO THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. ALTHOUGH BY THE TIME THE FRONT
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK AND WE WILL STILL SEE
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STILL INSISTENT ON A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
SOLUTION DOES NOT AGREE WITH MUCH ELSE. THE ECMWF/GFSE/NAEFS SOLUTIONS
GENERALLY SUPPORT A WEAKER WAVE WITH A POSITIVE TILT. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  35  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         62  37  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  36  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     62  38  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       62  38  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   62  39  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    63  39  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     66  42  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          63  41  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     64  44  78  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
919
FXUS64 KLUB 261127
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A
DECREASING TREND TO VERY LIGHT WINDS BY 00 UTC/7PM. WINDS WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SW THEN WEST TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AT 230 AM...THE COLD FRONT WHICH SWEPT THROUGH WEST TEXAS YESTERDAY
WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH DALLAS TO THE EAST AND SONORA TO THE
SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO RELAX ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AREA...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 4 AM OR SO. ALSO...IR IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND
OF LOW STRATUS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TODAY...WE WILL SEE
THE NORTH WINDS COME BACK UP BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE AS WE GET SOME
INITIAL MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...BUT THE WIND WILL RELAX
MID-MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. MODESTLY
COOL NRLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY
COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH THEN WEST. LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
30S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL LARGELY REMAIN UNEVENTFUL. LONG WAVE
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EAST BY
THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THIS
WILL LEAD TO RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MEXMOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S BY SUNDAY. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL SEND A COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION BRINGING A BRIEF
BREAK TO THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. ALTHOUGH BY THE TIME THE FRONT
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK AND WE WILL STILL SEE
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STILL INSISTENT ON A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
SOLUTION DOES NOT AGREE WITH MUCH ELSE. THE ECMWF/GFSE/NAEFS SOLUTIONS
GENERALLY SUPPORT A WEAKER WAVE WITH A POSITIVE TILT. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  35  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         62  37  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  36  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     62  38  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       62  38  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   62  39  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    63  39  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     66  42  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          63  41  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     64  44  78  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
339
FXUS64 KLUB 260832
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
332 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AT 230 AM...THE COLD FRONT WHICH SWEPT THROUGH WEST TEXAS YESTERDAY
WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH DALLAS TO THE EAST AND SONORA TO THE
SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO RELAX ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AREA...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 4 AM OR SO. ALSO...IR IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND
OF LOW STRATUS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TODAY...WE WILL SEE
THE NORTH WINDS COME BACK UP BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE AS WE GET SOME
INITIAL MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...BUT THE WIND WILL RELAX
MID-MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. MODESTLY
COOL NRLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY
COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH THEN WEST. LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
30S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL LARGELY REMAIN UNEVENTFUL. LONG WAVE
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EAST BY
THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THIS
WILL LEAD TO RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MEXMOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S BY SUNDAY. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL SEND A COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION BRINGING A BRIEF
BREAK TO THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. ALTHOUGH BY THE TIME THE FRONT
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK AND WE WILL STILL SEE
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STILL INSISTENT ON A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
SOLUTION DOES NOT AGREE WITH MUCH ELSE. THE ECMWF/GFSE/NAEFS SOLUTIONS
GENERALLY SUPPORT A WEAKER WAVE WITH A POSITIVE TILT. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  35  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         62  37  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  36  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     62  38  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       62  38  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   62  39  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    63  39  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     66  42  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          63  41  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     64  44  78  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/01
341
FXUS64 KLUB 260435
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1135 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR LOOKS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW
MVFR DECKS MAY SNEAK SOUTH INTO CDS AT TIMES. NORTH WINDS HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN BELOW 30 KNOTS AT PVW FOLLOWING THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE RISES...SO THE AWW AT LBB MAY BE CANX`D AHEAD OF ITS 4 AM
EXPIRATION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADS CLOSE TO THE TAF SITES
AFTER SUNRISE COMPLETE WITH MOSTLY LIGHT N WINDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCELERATE FROPA BY 1-2 HOURS GIVEN RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TO CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO
INSUFFICIENT WIND SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT AT 415 PM
EXTENDED FROM MULESHOE TO PLAINVIEW TO NORTHERN COTTLE COUNTY
WITH STEADY PRESSURE RISES AND RISING DEWPOINTS IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE WIND SHIFT. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

93
436
FXUS64 KLUB 252354
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
654 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...

...AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR LBB UNTIL 4AM THURSDAY FOR 30 KNOT
OR GREATER WINDS...

COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF LBB AHEAD OF 15-25 KT NLY WINDS. EVEN
STRONGER WINDS ARE LAGGING FARTHER NORTH BUT WILL REACH LBB BY
01Z-02Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 30 KNOTS AND SOME BLDU. VFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE INTERRUPTED BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS
FROM SOME MVFR CIGS...BUT LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST A LOWER
CHANCE OF THIS SO HAVE KEPT VFR LEVELS INTACT. STRONG WINDS WILL
CURTAIL FROM 07Z-10Z AND TREND LIGHT AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCELERATE FROPA BY 1-2 HOURS GIVEN RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TO CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO
INSUFFICIENT WIND SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT AT 415 PM
EXTENDED FROM MULESHOE TO PLAINVIEW TO NORTHERN COTTLE COUNTY
WITH STEADY PRESSURE RISES AND RISING DEWPOINTS IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE WIND SHIFT. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

93
231
FXUS64 KLUB 252226 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCELERATE FROPA BY 1-2 HOURS GIVEN RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TO CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO
INSUFFICIENT WIND SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT AT 415 PM
EXTENDED FROM MULESHOE TO PLAINVIEW TO NORTHERN COTTLE COUNTY
WITH STEADY PRESSURE RISES AND RISING DEWPOINTS IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE WIND SHIFT. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND LATEST RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE INITIAL
WIND SHIFT WITH THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A TUCUMCARI...
FRIONA...TULIA...TO CLARENDON LINE AND WAS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD AROUND 10 MPH.  THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF
CHILDRESS WITH A TRAILING DRYLINE EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE WESTERN
CONCHO VALLEY.  THIS HAS LEFT THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS IN
A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND WE ARE JUST NOW SEEING SOME AREAS REACH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.

AS WE LOSE DAYTIME MIXING AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...EXPECT
THE FRONT TO SURGE SOUTHWARD AS MODELS ALL HAVE STRONG PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT OF AROUND 2-3 MILLIBARS PER HOUR THROUGH AT
LEAST 1 AM.  THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE BARRIER JET ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST SHOULD
RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30-40 MPH AFTER SUNSET THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
STATIONS TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL ISSUE ONE FROM 00Z
THROUGH 9Z TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.

STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL ZONE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 55 MPH AT TIMES. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER
LIGHT HOWEVER AND WILL ONLY CARRY A TRACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OTHER ISSUE WITH THE WIND SPEED WILL BE LOFTING OF THE
FINER SOIL PARTICLES RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. HARD TO
TELL HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE AND KEPT THEM GENERALLY AROUND
5-6 MILES FOR NOW. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RAPID SCAN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS LONG AS POSSIBLE TO SEE IF WE GET A
GLIMPSE OF ANY BLOWING DUST/HABOOB ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH.

MIN TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY COOLER ACROSS THE REGION
THANKS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH LATE MORNING SO THAT WE ARE AROUND 10
MPH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
AND COOL AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES
COOLER TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TOMORROW COURTESY OF TONIGHT/S RATHER BREEZY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE RETURN OF A WEAK SFC LOW NW OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SFC WINDS RETURNING TO A SRLY FLOW BY
TOMORROW NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO TREK SEWRD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN THUS RESULTING IN A
BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
COOLER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UA TROUGH AFFECTING THE MID-
WEST AND ERN CONUS ON FRIDAY...TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST...THUS THE
WARM MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS APPEAR REASONABLE /HIGHS IN THE 70S/.
MEANWHILE...AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING IMPINGING ON THE WRN CONUS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EWRD TOWARDS THE REGION WHILST DE-AMPLIFYING.
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND 850 MB TEMPS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND /15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/. THIS
IS DESPITE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND SENDING DOWN A COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE CWA LATE SUNDAY
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WHICH IS WHY IT IS INTERESTING THAT MEX GUIDANCE
IS WARMEST ON SUNDAY...SO MUCH SO THAT IT HINTS AT LOWER 90S FOR
KLBB...WHICH COULD NEAR/TIE THE RECORD OF 91 DEGREES SET IN 2012.
HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES DUE TO THIS PERSISTENT TREND...BUT WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW THE
90S FOR NOW.

THEREAFTER...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL LOWER AS A PACIFIC UA DISTURBANCE
MAKES IT WAY TOWARD THE AREA. THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
SAID DISTURBANCE STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED OUT...AS THERE REMAINS
HIGH SPREAD IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE SUPERBLEND MODEL EXHIBITING
LOWERED TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK /BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S/ AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY REMAINS VALID ATTM.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ030>032-
035>038-041>044.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

93
289
FXUS64 KLUB 252053
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
353 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND LATEST RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE INITIAL
WIND SHIFT WITH THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A TUCUMCARI...
FRIONA...TULIA...TO CLARENDON LINE AND WAS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD AROUND 10 MPH.  THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF
CHILDRESS WITH A TRAILING DRYLINE EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE WESTERN
CONCHO VALLEY.  THIS HAS LEFT THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS IN
A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND WE ARE JUST NOW SEEING SOME AREAS REACH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.

AS WE LOSE DAYTIME MIXING AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...EXPECT
THE FRONT TO SURGE SOUTHWARD AS MODELS ALL HAVE STRONG PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT OF AROUND 2-3 MILLIBARS PER HOUR THROUGH AT
LEAST 1 AM.  THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE BARRIER JET ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST SHOULD
RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30-40 MPH AFTER SUNSET THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
STATIONS TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL ISSUE ONE FROM 00Z
THROUGH 9Z TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.

STRONG FRONTOGENSIS ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH
TO GENERATE HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 55 MPH
AT TIMES.  ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT HOWEVER AND
WILL ONLY CARRY A TRACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  OTHER ISSUE
WITH THE WIND SPEED WILL BE LOFTING OF THE FINER SOIL PARTICLES
RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.  HARD TO TELL HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL BE AND KEPT THEM GENERALLY AROUND 5-6 MILES FOR
NOW.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RAPID SCAN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS LONG AS POSSIBLE TO SEE IF WE GET A GLIMPSE OF ANY
BLOWING DUST/HABOOB ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.

MIN TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY COOLER ACROSS THE REGION
THANKS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH LATE MORNING SO THAT WE ARE AROUND 10
MPH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
AND COOL AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES
COOLER TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY.

JORDAN

.LONG TERM...
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TOMORROW COURTESY OF TONIGHT/S RATHER BREEZY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE RETURN OF A WEAK SFC LOW NW OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SFC WINDS RETURNING TO A SRLY FLOW BY
TOMORROW NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO TREK SEWRD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN THUS RESULTING IN A
BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
COOLER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UA TROUGH AFFECTING THE MID-
WEST AND ERN CONUS ON FRIDAY...TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST...THUS THE
WARM MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS APPEAR REASONABLE /HIGHS IN THE 70S/.
MEANWHILE...AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING IMPINGING ON THE WRN CONUS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EWRD TOWARDS THE REGION WHILST DE-AMPLIFYING.
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND 850 MB TEMPS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND /15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/. THIS
IS DESPITE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND SENDING DOWN A COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE CWA LATE SUNDAY
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WHICH IS WHY IT IS INTERESTING THAT MEX GUIDANCE
IS WARMEST ON SUNDAY...SO MUCH SO THAT IT HINTS AT LOWER 90S FOR
KLBB...WHICH COULD NEAR/TIE THE RECORD OF 91 DEGREES SET IN 2012.
HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES DUE TO THIS PERSISTENT TREND...BUT WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW THE
90S FOR NOW.

THEREAFTER...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL LOWER AS A PACIFIC UA DISTURBANCE
MAKES IT WAY TOWARD THE AREA. THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
SAID DISTURBANCE STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED OUT...AS THERE REMAINS
HIGH SPREAD IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE SUPERBLEND MODEL EXHIBITING
LOWERED TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK /BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S/ AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY REMAINS VALID ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        31  61  35  72 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         33  63  35  72 /  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     34  62  35  73 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     34  63  36  76 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       35  64  37  76 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   37  63  37  76 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    37  64  38  77 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     40  67  40  72 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          40  65  41  76 /  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     44  66  43  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ030>032-
035>038-041>044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

14/29
902
FXUS64 KLUB 251758 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1258 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 00Z/7PM LOCAL TIME
WHICH WILL SWING WIND DIRECTION OUT OF THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 25-30 KTS AND GUSTS 30-38 KTS. THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT KPVW BUT SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM
KLBB AND KCDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING TOWARDS SUNRISE THURSDAY. THERE
COULD ALSO BE A MVFR CEILING THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
WITH WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DROPPING BELOW 10 KTS BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
BREEZY SURFACE WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS COULD APPROACH 30 KTS FOR A PERIOD
THIS EVENING. PATCHY BLOWING DUST IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. TONIGHT...A LOW STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AFTER
06 UTC...BUT WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST VFR FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER SW MT/WRN WY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES...A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND RACE SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL
BE ENTERING OUR NRN ZONES AROUND 6 PM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR SO. TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SHALLOW MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING WILL GET SCOURED EASTWARD ON RISING W-SW BREEZES AS A
SURFACE LOW MIGRATES FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. THE DRYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP
QUICKLY AND AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 80S...AND NEAR 90F
ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN ROLLING PLAINS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE WHERE THEY SHOULD STAY IN THE 70S AS THEY/LL
SEE MORE CLOUD COVER AND SEE SOME COLD ADVECTION WITH THE INCOMING
TROUGH. THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITHIN WILL
PROMOTE A HIGH FIRE DANGER...DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL BELOW. STEEP
PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA...SUSTAINED AT 30 TO 39 MPH...FOR A PERIOD. WE WILL KEEP
WIND SPEEDS JUST UNDER THIS THRESHOLD FOR THE TIME BEING DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE STRONG WINDS.
HOWEVER...WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A MENTION OF BLOWING DUST
ACROSS THE CAPROCK...EVEN IF THE WINDS DON/T QUITE REACH ADVISORY
STRENGTH WE ARE IN THE PLOWING SEASON WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE
AVAILABILITY OF DIRT TO BE READILY LOFTED. FINALLY...WE MAY ALSO
HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME HIGH-BASED RAIN OR VIRGA SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NW SPLNS AND FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AS THE STRONG
FRONTAL FORCING COMBINES WITH LIFT AND SOME MID-LVL MOISTURE FROM
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF RAIN...BUT COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST.

THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH A COOL...DRY AIRMASS
SETTLING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPS MAY FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING ACROSS THE NW ZONES WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...
AFTER A VERY BRIEF COOL DOWN ON THURSDAY FOLLOWING TONIGHTS COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM BACK UP TO VALUES MUCH
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A LARGE
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES BUT HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER
SOLUTIONS. A FEW SURFACE TROUGHS/WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MAKE AN
ATTEMPT TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
NONE OF THESE ARE SHOWN TO QUITE MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. A
SUCCESSFUL FRONT MAY MAKE IT DOWN LATE ON SUNDAY BREAKING THE
STREAK OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A TROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE
MODELS ARE OBVIOUSLY STRUGGLING WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGH SPREAD
IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. IT IS NOT VERY CLEAR WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH
THIS TROUGH BUT WILL KEEP LOW END POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY
AIR...AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE MOST CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ROUGHLY EAST OF I-27/US-87 AND SOUTH
OF US-70...AND A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.
SURROUNDING THIS...AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED AND WE WILL
ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. ALSO...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SHARP WIND SHIFT AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...POSSIBLY CAUSING A SUDDEN CHANGE IN FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  31  62  36 /  10  10   0   0
TULIA         77  34  63  37 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     81  34  62  37 /   0  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     82  36  63  38 /   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       85  37  64  39 /   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   83  38  63  39 /   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    84  38  63  39 /   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     87  41  66  42 /   0  10  10   0
SPUR          87  40  65  41 /   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  43  65  43 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ030>032-
035>038-041>044.

&&

$$

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