Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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902
FXUS64 KLUB 121118
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
618 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...
BKN-OVC IFR AND LIFR CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPED AT KCDS AND KLBB
RESPECTIVELY EARLY THIS MORNING. FURTHERMORE...MVFR FOG HAVE ALSO
DEVELOPED AT BOTH TAF SITES. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RA WAS
MOVING ACROSS KCDS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WHILST ISOLATED -SHRA SOUTH OF THE KLBB COULD POSSIBLY
AFFECT THE TERMINAL LEADING TO INTERMITTENT -SHRA. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS BOTH TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING LEADING TO N-NE
SFC WINDS AT 15-20 MPH...AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RA. WILL
EXPECT MVFR TO LIFR CLOUD DECKS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF
CYCLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECLINE NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA RIDGE WAS STRETCHED FROM THE SERN CONUS TO NEAR FAR SW TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SWRN FLANK OF THE SAID UA RIDGE HAS AIDED IN
TRANSPORTING MID-UPPER LEVEL EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...COUPLED WITH AN ENDURING UPSLOPE SFC REGIME /PWATS
RANGING FROM THE 1.40-1.60 INCHES/ AND AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE WITHIN
THE SWRN FLANK OF THE UA RIDGE...TO PROMOTE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. RAINFALL RATES RANGED FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR UP TO THREE-QUARTER INCH OR SO PER
HOUR...WITH THE HEAVIEST BANDS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND ALSO MOVING IN FROM EAST NEW MEXICO TO
ACROSS THE FAR SWRN SOUTH PLAINS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UA TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND WILL BE HEADED TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH ITS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
BE WELL NORTH OF THE FA...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE HEADED
OUR WAY AS IT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AND SRN KS PER 08Z
METARS. IT IS PROGGED TO IMPINGE ON THE FAR SWRN TX PANHANDLE
BETWEEN 12Z-15Z...AND QUICKLY ADVANCE SOUTH OF THE SRN ZONES BY
THE AFTN. THE 1030 MB SFC RIDGE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
PROMOTE PRESSURE RISES OF 2-4 MB/3 HRS WHICH IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL LIGHT-MODERATE
RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT...NOT TO MENTION DECENT CAA /ALONG WITH
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS/ WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET
OUT OF THE 50S AND 60S TODAY.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS THE
SFC RIDGE NEARS THE REGION...THUS CAUSING LIGHTER N-NE SFC WIND
SPEEDS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THE COLD FRONT AND ITS
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE FA. HOWEVER..COULD
PERHAPS SEE LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN...SRN AND
SWRN ZONES. RAIN-FREE AREAS MAY NEED TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR
POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL BE CHILLY DUE TO THE FROPA AND RECENT RAINFALL...WITH MIDDLE
40S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS ARE ANTICIPATED.

LONG TERM...
FCST AREA WILL KEEP A CONNECTION TO SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NWD FROM THE ERN PACIFIC AND TROPICAL STORM ODILE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LIFT THAT
HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL DIMINISH
AS A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS QUICKLY EWD TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP COOL TEMPS AND
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE SMALL. THIS BEGINS TO CHANGE AGAIN FOR MONDAY...TUESDAY...
AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AS THE SRN BRANCH IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
MOVES EWD OVER THE DESERT SW AND IMPINGES ON THE FCST AREA
PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF ALBEIT WEAKER LIFT THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FCST AREA. LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
MOIST...AND THERE MIGHT BE A WEAK FRONT THAT CAN MAKE IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE FCST AREA POSSIBLY PROVIDING EITHER A LOW LEVEL FOCUS
OR MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW. UPSHOT IS THAT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THAT PERIOD TO PROVIDE A NARROWER
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS THAN SEEN IN MOS GUIDANCE. TEMPS PROBABLY
WILL NOT RETURN TO MOS PROGS UNTIL LATE WEEK WHEN FCST AREA BEGINS
TO LOSE THE DEEP MOISTURE CONNECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  45  67  53  76 /  80  20  10  10  10
TULIA         58  47  66  53  77 /  80  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     59  47  66  54  77 /  80  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     62  48  66  56  77 /  90  30  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       62  48  66  56  77 /  90  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   66  49  66  58  76 / 100  40  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    65  49  66  58  77 /  90  30  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  50  68  57  81 /  70  20  10  10  10
SPUR          65  51  67  58  79 /  80  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     68  53  69  59  81 /  60  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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