Area Forecast Discussion
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220
FXUS64 KLUB 270428
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1128 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE THROUGH CDS
AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE STALLING NEAR PVW AND LBB BY LATE
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IN PLACE THAN 24 HOURS AGO.  SURFACE RIDGE HAS
SETTLED IN OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG WE CAN KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.  DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BUT MODELS DO
GRADUALLY VEER WIND DIRECTIONS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY
SUNRISE AND INCREASE SPEEDS TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...BOTH OF WHICH MAY
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT.

RETURN TO WEST WIND IS SHORT LIVED AS A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  THIS MAY RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
DURING THE DAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING IMPACTING THE WRN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EWRD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...THUS PROMOTING
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND AN UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS. AS
SUCH...ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH IS STILL EXPECTED DESPITE AN ERWD
PROPAGATING UA DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SENDING A COLD
FRONT TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA SUNDAY AFTN. MEXMOS HAS BACKED OFF ON
ADVERTISING LOWER 90 DEGREE TEMPS ON SUNDAY...GIVEN THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT CURRENTLY BEING SHOWN TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE AFTN
VERSUS LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE TEMP ON
SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FROPA.
WILL LEAN TOWARDS TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NWRN
ZONES /DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT/ TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS ATTM.

THEREAFTER 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS WILL DECLINE AS AN UA DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE GFS IS STILL THE MOST BULLISH AND
STRONGEST WITH THE SAID DISTURBANCE AS COMPARED TO THE WEAKER
DEPICTION PER THE ECMWF. HOWEVER THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE WHILST OPENING UP INTO AN UA
TROUGH...HENCE POSSIBLY TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF. AS A
RESULT...BEST POPS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA. RATHER
LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ARE STILL BEING SHOWN ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN ZONES
PER THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE PER THE ECMWF. MEXMOS TEMPS AS
A RESULT ARE NOT QUITE AS COOL NEXT WEEK AS PREVIOUS
ITERATIONS...GIVEN DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN EXPANSIVE PRECIP AND
THICK CLOUD COVER. THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION EXHIBITING HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN ZONES
TUESDAY APPEAR REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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