Area Forecast Discussion
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771
FXUS64 KLUB 222137
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
337 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A 1050 MB SFC RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS AIDED IN
OOZING MUCH COLDER AIR TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN.
THIS IS EVIDENT IN TEMPS HAVING FELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WAS
DOWN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
WITH 20S ELSEWHERE PER 21Z METARS. SLIGHTLY BREEZY N-NE SFC WINDS
ENVELOPING THE REGION PROVIDES PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
COLD AIRMASS...THUS RESULTING IN THE NONE TO SURPRISING LOW
CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG BELOW 6 MILES FOR SOME LOCATIONS...AND LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL PHONE TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL
ACROSS THE REGION HAS RESULTED IN KNOWING THAT PRECIP TYPE HAS
RANGED FROM LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AND/OR SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NRN AND CNTRL SOUTH PLAINS...LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THIS MIXED BAG
OF PRECIP TYPES SUGGEST THAT THE WARM NOSE LOCATED BETWEEN 800MB-
700MB IS STILL PREVALENT. TEXAS TECH MESONET SITES AND CALLS TO
EMERGENCY PERSONNEL HAVE REPORTED THE WINTRY PRECIP TO BE RATHER
LIGHT...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. ASPHALT IS STILL A BIT
WARM DUE TO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH. HOWEVER...A
PUBLIC REPORT OF A THIN GLAZE OF ICE ACROSS A FEW OVERPASSES AND
BRIDGES WITHIN THE CITY OF LUBBOCK IMPLIES CAUTION SHOULD DEFINITELY
BE EXERCISED.

MODEL SOLUTIONS INCLUDING SOME HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT
AT A LULL IN ACTIVITY BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AS AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE
WITHIN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT /WHICH PROMPTED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS EARLIER THIS MORNING/ CONTINUED TO EXIT THE
REGION...THUS CAUSING FLEETING UL SUPPORT. WITH LOW LEVELS REMAINING
SATURATED AND COLD...CAN NOT RULE OUT LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP STILL
BEING CAPABLE OF FALLING OUT OF THE STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...A RESURGENCE OF THE WINTRY PRECIP
WILL OCCUR COURTESY OF YET ANOTHER EMBEDDED IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE SAID TIME. CONCURRENTLY...THE COLD AIR WILL BE
AT ITS COLDEST DUE TO THE SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SLIDING
SSE A BIT...LEADING TO 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -8 C TO -12 C
RANGE. AS SUCH...THE WARM NOSE WILL BE AT ITS WEAKEST...AND HENCE
SOUNDINGS ARE EXHIBITING A SNOW PROFILE ACROSS THE NRN AND NWRN
ZONES...SNOW OR SLEET PROFILE ACROSS THE CNTRL ZONES AND FREEZING
RAIN OR SLEET PROFILE ACROSS THE SRN ZONES. WITH THE EMBEDDED
IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE FA COUPLING WITH STRONG CAA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...THE INTENSITY OF THE WINTRY PRECIP
WILL BE AT ITS PEAK...AND WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR BANDED PRECIP TO DEVELOP...WHICH COULD POSE A RISK FOR
MODERATE WINTRY PRECIP. BY TOMORROW AFTN...THE IMPULSE WILL COMMENCE
TO EXIT THE REGION AND BEST PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWRD AS WELL.
CLOUDS WILL THIN A BIT FROM WEST TO EAST...THOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL ENSUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTN.

OVERALL...WE ARE EXPECTING A TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT /WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS/...1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE CNTRL ZONES AND 1 INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THE FAR SRN ZONES. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MAINLY
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN ZONES WHERE ONE-TENTH TO TWO-TENTHS
OF AN INCH MAY OCCUR. WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS COULD INCREASE MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED IF BANDED PRECIP DOES INDEED COME INTO FRUITION. AT THIS
TIME A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT...BUT WILL NEED TO
ANALYZE RADAR TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TO SEE IF A WARNING
BECOMES WARRANTED.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS CWA
WIDE. THIS COULD NOT ONLY MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS /AS THE GROUND GETS
COLDER MAKING IT EASIER FOR WINTRY PRECIP TO ACCUMULATE/...BUT WIND
CHILLS NEARING O WILL MAKE FOR QUITE A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING
TOMORROW. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
20S. KLBB LOWEST MAXIMUM RECORD FOR TOMORROW WILL THEREFORE BE IN
JEOPARDY...AS THE RECORD IS 34 DEGREES SET IN 1941...AND THE
FORECASTED HIGH FOR TOMORROW IS 26 DEGREES. /29

.LONG TERM...
SHALLOW COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BRINGS
MODEST WARMING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A RISK FOR FOG AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH
WE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
SURFACE MOISTURE PROFILE. BUT WILL NEED TO ADDRESS THIS FURTHER
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIFT WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS NEXT
UPPER LOW HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SHARPER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. MID LEVEL MOISTURE CERTAINLY QUESTIONABLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK AS
ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE SURGE PASSES SOUTH...AND SOLUTIONS SHOWING
SHOWERS NOW OUTNUMBER THOSE THAT DONT. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE
A WEAK PASSING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE A DECENT WARMING...PROBABLY OUR ONLY DAY IN
THE COMING WEEK NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN...SOLUTIONS ARE
HONING IN ON AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. UNCLEAR IF THIS WILL BE A SEPARATE BOUNDARY FROM AN
ARCTIC SURGE EXPECTED BY EARLY THURSDAY. BUT ANOTHER PLUNGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FAIRLY SHARP
TROUGH IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH CARVES IN THE WEST
WHICH WILL QUICKLY SUPPORT CHANCE OF SNOW...THEN MORE CHANNELED
VORTICITY TO FOLLOW FRIDAY SO UNCLEAR IF PRECIPITATION THEN WILL
BE SIGNIFICANT ALTHOUGH MODEL TOTALS CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE AN ISSUE. THE FAR EXTENDED ONCE AGAIN LOOKS
LIKE WE MAY SEE A DEEPENING TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND HEIGHT RISES
ALONG THE EAST COAST LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND POTENTIAL TO PUMP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND. INITIALLY WOULD EXPECT LOWER LEVELS TO WARM BY SATURDAY
BEFORE PROBABLY ANOTHER TEMPERATURE DROP LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT
CONFIDENCE IN DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS DROPS DRAMATICALLY BY FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. /05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        12  24  16  39 /  70  70  10  10
TULIA         13  22  16  39 /  70  70  10  10
PLAINVIEW     14  24  18  40 /  70  70  10  10
LEVELLAND     15  26  19  41 /  70  70  10  10
LUBBOCK       14  26  19  41 /  70  70  10  10
DENVER CITY   18  26  20  41 /  70  70  10  10
BROWNFIELD    17  26  20  41 /  70  70  10  10
CHILDRESS     17  25  18  38 /  70  70  10  10
SPUR          17  25  19  41 /  70  70  10  10
ASPERMONT     19  25  21  39 /  70  70  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

29/05

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