Area Forecast Discussion
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566
FXUS64 KLUB 142117
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
317 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...
FALLING SURFACE PRESSURE VALUES AND RESULTING SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A HEALTHY DOSE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY BREACHED THE FREEZING MARK
TODAY...CLIMBING INTO THE 40S. LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT FOR THE
MOST PART...BUT WILL MAKE A RETURN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A WEAKLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. A PERIOD OF TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL RESULT IN THIS INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...BUT A MID-LEVEL DRY POCKET SHOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BEST LIFT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE. WARM AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING FROM
THE LOW 30S ON THE CAPROCK TO MID-UPPER 20S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE FRONT RANGE WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYER AND BREEZY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SATURDAY...HELPING TO
ERODE CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST AND MAKE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL KEEP
READINGS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD ARCTIC AIR IS ON ITS WAY AGAIN LATER THIS
WEEKEND. A TROF CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WA STATE WILL PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE TAPPING IN TO COLD AIR POSITIONED OVER CANADA
WHERE AT BEST AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW TEENS. SINGLE
DIGIT HIGHS WERE MORE COMMON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO
THE FA JUST AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERED ON TIMING OF THE
FRONT WITH THE ECMWF/NAM SHOWING A SLOWER FROPA THAN THE GFS.
CONSIDERING THE TROF WILL REMAIN OPEN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION I
HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE FASTER GFS AS THESE HIGHLY BAROCLINIC
FRONTS TEND TO MOVE FAST IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. PRESSURE RISES ON
THE MAGNITUDE OF 12 TO 15 MB IN 6 HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE
WINDS FROM 10MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT UP TO 25MPH BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT WINDS UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL BUT A WIND ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO CONSIDERED OVER THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS FOR TOMORROW EVENING
MAINLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

THE NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROF AXIS WILL HELP TO SERVE
AS THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY PRECIP CHANCES...THEREFORE THE
TIMING ISSUE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE MODELS WILL PRESENT SOME
DIFFICULTY IN DETERMINING PRECIP CHANCES. THE GFS HAS BEEN GIVEN
MORE WEIGHT TO THE FORECAST THAN OTHER MODELS WITH THE FASTER TROF
BEING FAVORED. THIS WOULD KEEP THE LENGTH OF TIME FOR SNOW TO FALL
RATHER SHORT THUS KEEPING ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS LOW. THE NAM AND
ECMWF WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE TROF. STRATIFORM SNOWFALL WILL BE THE DOMINATING
PRECIP TYPE AS IT IS POST FRONTAL AND THERE WILL BE DECENT
OVER-RUNNING IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. A WARM NOSE APPEARS TO BE
PRESENT AROUND 800 TO 750 MB LATE SUNDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD ERODE BY
THE TIME PRECIP BEGINS TO FALL KEEPING PRECIP TYPE SNOW...HOPEFULLY.
THE ONE EXCEPTION...WHICH HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS...WOULD BE
FOR OUR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES WHERE THE SURFACE AND NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURE MAY REACH ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-00Z BUT
SHOULD TRANSITION FULLY TO SNOW BY 00Z.

THE TROF WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL MAKE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.
ALDRICH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        30  62  20  27  14 /  10  10  10  30  10
TULIA         29  60  22  28  15 /  10  10  10  30  10
PLAINVIEW     30  61  23  29  18 /  10  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     30  66  26  32  20 /  10   0  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       31  65  26  32  21 /  10   0  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   31  68  28  34  23 /  10   0  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    31  66  27  33  23 /  10   0  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     27  56  28  32  22 /  10  10  10  30  10
SPUR          29  62  29  33  23 /  10  10  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     30  63  31  35  24 /   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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