Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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677
FXUS64 KLUB 301731 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN PLACE AT KLBB THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
KCDS WILL ALSO REMAIN VFR BUT HAS A CHANCE AT SEEING THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING REMAINS QUESTIONABLE
STILL AND UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH COVERAGE IS A CONCERN AS WELL.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SEE IF TEMPO CAN
BE REMOVED IF CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
BEST CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THUNDER CHANCES DEVELOPING JUST EAST
OF KLBB EARLY THIS EVENING BUT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT KCDS WERE A PROB30 GROUP WAS ADDED. VFR
OTHERWISE WILL DOMINATE. LOW CHANCE FOR CG CIGS AROUND KCDS TO
LOWER TO NEAR MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A MOISTURE PLUME WAS PULLING UP INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION
THIS MORNING FROM THE TROPICAL NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING OFF INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A TRAILING
IMPULSE EJECTING THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO MAY BE IN TANDEM WITH
A WEAKER IMPULSE CROSSING THE MOIST PLUME OVER WEST TEXAS. ISOLATED
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WERE CROSSING THE SOUTH PLAINS...HEADING INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS
DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY IN THIS PATTERN...WE EXPECT TO REMAIN WITHIN
THE MOIST PLUME THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SUBJECT TO AT LEAST WEAK
FORCING FROM THE TRAILING SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. MAJORITY
OF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BREAK THUNDERSTORMS OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE TIGHTENS A DRYLINE WITH POTENTIAL
SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOWER OR EVEN MIDDLE 60S LYING JUST
TO THE EAST. STILL SOME CONCERN OVER POSSIBLE ERRORS IN MODEL
DEPICTION OF SURFACE DEWPOINT STRUCTURE...BUT OVERNIGHT TRENDS IN
WRF/NAM AND RAP SEEM TO GIVE SOME CREDENCE TO THE HIGHER MOISTURE
LEVELS. AND THIS WOULD GENERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY UP TO 2500 JOULES
PER KILOGRAM WITH MODEST SHEAR OF 25-30 KNOTS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW HEFTY STORMS IN THIS AREA LATER TODAY. WE HAVE EDGED
PREVIOUS THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR
LATER TODAY WHILE RETAINING BULK OF PREVIOUS FORECAST. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON....FAVORED A CONSALL/
CONSRAW ENSEMBLE APPROACH A NOTCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD DOMINATES THE WEATHER
PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT/RETREATING DRYLINE MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AS
IT BARRELS OUT ONTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY. FURTHERMORE...THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS NOT GREAT. A BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL NOT SPREAD OVER THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. WE WILL
STILL SEE A GOOD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS UNTIL THIS POINT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HANG ON TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EAST
OF THE DRYLINE. BUT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER THAN TODAY.

THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUNCH THROUGH ON
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WILL NOT PLOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON LEAVING POSSIBLE STORM CHANCES IN THIS AREA. AFTER THE
COLD FRONT AND TROUGH ON THURSDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ENTER
THE REGION WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US. A WEAK SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WILL HAVE LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ON ANY WEATHER IMPACTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL IN THE MORNING WITH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS THE COOLEST DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  54  83  52  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         83  57  86  55  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     83  58  86  55  73 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     84  59  86  56  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       84  60  87  56  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   85  60  87  57  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    85  59  88  57  77 /  20  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     88  64  93  58  78 /  20  30  20  20  10
SPUR          86  62  91  64  81 /  20  30  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     89  67  93  69  85 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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