Area Forecast Discussion
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629
FXUS64 KLUB 212347
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
647 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VERY INTENSE LINE OF SLOW WESTWARD MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED RELATED TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM JUST WEST OF KCDS
WESTWARD. THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDER PREVIOUSLY AROUND KLBB HAS
MOSTLY DWINDLED. BULK OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS LINE LIKELY TO
REMAIN IN THAT AREA FOR NOW. OTHERWISE AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST
ENOUGH AND UPSLOPISH AT KLBB FOR STRATUS TO RETURN AND LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
YET ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH FLOODING CONCERNS AGAIN AT THE
TOP OF THE LIST.

A TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE IN NO HURRY TO GO ANYWHERE FAST. THE LARGE SCALE
CIRCULATION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...WITH A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL HAVING
EXPANDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN
BASIN. THIS RAINFALL HAS RECENTLY BEEN ENHANCED WITH THE ADDITION OF
MODEST INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...FURTHER
ADDING TO THE RAIN INTENSITY. THE GREATEST CONCERN REMAINS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 4 INCHES AN
HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THERE. IN FACT...HERE AT THE SCIENCE
SPECTRUM WE RECORDED NEARLY 2 INCHES IN ABOUT ONE HOUR. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD TO
INCLUDE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. WE DID ALSO
EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH TO RUN THROUGH 12Z.

OVERALL...WE EXPECT THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
GRADUALLY WANING EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER TO THE NORTH WE WILL
LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS A WEAK FRONT
BACKDOORS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THERE IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER
INSTABILITY FOR THIS FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO. PLENTY OF MOISTURE COULD ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS AREA
HAS LARGELY MISSED OUT ON THE RAIN THIS PAST WEEK...WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS ARE LOWER. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG THROUGH
THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
GOING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE
FRONT. GIVEN THIS...THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACTIVITY TO
AFFECT THE ALREADY SOAKED CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT...THUS THE REGION FOR THE EXTENSION IN TIME ON FLOOD WATCH.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY AS
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA FROM THE EAST BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE NEAR THE STATE LINE SO
THE RISK FOR MORE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL EXIST THERE...AND THE FLOOD
WATCH MAY NEED TO BE RECONFIGURED AND EXTENDED IN TIME LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST THOUGH...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF
REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN LATELY THANKS TO THE PASSING FRONT...WITH ANOTHER MILD DAY
TO FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...
WILL SEE THE LAST OF THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MONDAY NIGHT AS THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY. PREVIOUS IDEA OF CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT LOOK FINE
DESPITE SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS MOSTLY PRECIP-FREE. PATTERN THEN
TRANSITIONS AS HAS BEEN SHOWN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FCST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAKNESS
AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH INSTABILITY STEMMING FROM WARMING
TEMPERATURES...INCREASED INSOLATION...AND LINGERING LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO JUSTIFY 20-30 PCT RAIN CHANCES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES BELOW MENTION. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FCST THIS AFTN GIVEN GOOD MODEL
CONTINUITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  72  59  78  59 /  50  50  40  10  20
TULIA         59  73  59  80  61 /  40  30  40  20  20
PLAINVIEW     59  73  59  79  60 /  40  30  40  20  20
LEVELLAND     63  74  60  79  62 /  50  40  40  20  20
LUBBOCK       63  74  60  79  62 /  40  30  40  20  20
DENVER CITY   64  75  62  79  62 /  50  50  40  10  10
BROWNFIELD    64  76  61  79  62 /  50  50  40  20  10
CHILDRESS     62  81  60  83  64 /  40  20  30  20  20
SPUR          64  77  61  82  64 /  40  20  40  20  20
ASPERMONT     65  81  62  85  66 /  30  20  20  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ027-028-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

99/99/05

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