Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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336
FXUS64 KLUB 221728 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1228 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS THROUGH
TOMORROW. WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DYING A SLOW DEATH NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER THIS
MORNING. A VERY WEAK OUTFLOW HAS EDGED THROUGH KLBB WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY COMPONENT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MODEST SOUTHEAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDER CHANCES AGAIN LATER TODAY WILL REMAIN WEST OR
NORTHWEST OF BOTH LOCATIONS AS UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE
REGION. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
REMNANT SHOWERS AND CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUE TO BEND SOUTHWARD OVER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER.
THIS REGION HAS HAD MAXIMUM UPPER DIVERGENCE THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO
WHILE A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOOKS LIKE A REAL
POSSIBILITY TO REMAIN NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER INTO THE MIDDAY
HEATING PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND NORTHWEST AND BUILD
TODAY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO. UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
UNCHANGED OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH UPPER DIVERGENCE MAY
NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY...LINGERING
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBLE MCV MENTIONED ABOVE WITH THE STRONG
HEATING SUPPORT ANOTHER LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AT LEAST
SOME PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER OVER ABOUT THE SAME AREA. STEERING
FLOW...HOWEVER...WILL BE TURNED MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST SO IF STORM
INITIATION PROVES TO BE MAINLY ON THE NEW MEXICO SIDE OF THE STATE
LINE LATER TODAY THEY WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY BUILDING INTO WEST
TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKIER THAN RECENT DAYS OWING
TO THE MOISTURE ROLE...TEND TO THINK MOST GUIDANCE IS OVER-PLAYING
COOLING POTENTIAL TODAY GIVEN THE STAGNANT HEIGHT FIELD MENTIONED
ABOVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES ALOFT. MORNING CLOUD
DEBRIS IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE ALLOWING QUITE A BIT OF SUN ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THICKER CLOUDS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...HOWEVER...CERTAINLY COULD TURN INTO A PROBLEM FOR WARMING.
ANYWAY...WE EDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO THE WEST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR...WHILE CLOSELY RETAINING
PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS TO THE EAST. TONIGHT SHOULD SEE STORMS END
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT OUR REGION BEING MORE DISTANT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS...THOUGH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL FOLLOW. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO OPPRESS THE AREA THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND ELONGATE AS A
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THEN INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL WEAKNESSES WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LOWER THAN OBSERVED
IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MODELS DO AGREE IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THESE WEAKNESSES. IT
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH WEST TEXAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE AND WEAK
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN...THICKNESSES
WILL RISE BY THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO TEMPERATURES AROUND
TEN DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. AT THE MOMENT...WE LOOK TO
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND
AMPLIFICATION. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES SENDING
DOWN A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS
AND GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE...STORMIER WEATHER WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  69  96  68  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
TULIA         94  69  97  68  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  70  95  70  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  71  97  70  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       97  72  97  71  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   94  72  95  71  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    96  73  97  72 100 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS    100  73 102  73 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          99  75  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT    102  75 103  75 102 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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