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466
FXUS64 KLUB 262324
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
524 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
BKN-OVC VFR DECKS ARE OCCURRING AT ALL THREE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
EVENING. -SN/FLURRIES HAVE INTERMITTENTLY SHOWED UP IN THE KPVW
AND KLBB METARS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VIS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY AFFECTING KLBB AND KPVW AOA 09Z AND KCDS AOA
12Z. THIS SNOWFALL COULD BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES AND THUS CAUSE
VIS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR CATEGORY. FURTHERMORE...CIGS WILL
DECLINE TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. -SN WILL COMMENCE TO TAPER
OFF BY THE AFTN AT KLBB AND KPVW...HENCE THE INTRODUCTION OF A
PROB30...BUT WILL BE ONGOING AT KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA IS
MOVING SEWD ACROSS UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING THIS OPEN WAVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS
IS PRETTY SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO THE AREA EARLIER
TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE QUITE A BIT MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN SEEN WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE. SPECIFICALLY...VERY
STRONG AND BROAD MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PROGGED LATE TONIGHT
MAYBE INDICATED BEST BY 45-55 KT WINDS CROSS-PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE 295K THETA SFC. ADD TO THIS A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAN
CERTAINLY SEE THIS MORNINGS 1/4-INCH TO 2-INCH TOTALS TURN INTO 1 TO
4. HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY IN THE PRIME AREAS OF THE SWRN PANHANDLE
OVER TO SILVERTON WITH SOME ISOLATED 4-PLUS TOTALS POSSIBLE. WILL
ISSUE AN ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SNOWFALL...SPLITTING THE FCST
INTO TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR A LATER START AND FINISH ERN ZONES RELATIVE
TO WEST AND CENTRAL.

OTHER ISSUE TONIGHT IS COLD TEMPS. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW AS WINDS VEER TO THE EAST.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP THE BOTTOM FROM FALLING OUT. SO MOS LOOKING
A BIT COLD...NOT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO...AND WILL TREND
LOWS TOWARD WARMER RAW MODEL TEMPS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE NRN ZONES
FROM FALLING INTO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA /IE LESS THAN MINUS
FIVE/ WITH WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE REBOUND
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING AND CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE AFTN. NEAR MOS AND PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS FINE ATTM...IN
GENERAL ABOUT A FIVE DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE.

LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. BACKING FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN A PERIOD
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION COMPLETE WITH A STEADY DOSE
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP A RELATIVELY MOIST AND COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER. COLD ENOUGH AIR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY EVENING TO
KEEP EVERYTHING IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO A MIX
WITH FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE OCCURS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE
WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

SNOW SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LIQUID PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH WILL STILL SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE FOR A PERIOD THUS RESULTING IN A MIX OF RAIN
AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. ROAD CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. DRYING ALOFT MAY BRING A LULL SUNDAY...BUT THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL WARRANT KEEPING MENTIONABLE
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT WITH QUESTIONS AS TO ITS
LATITUDINAL EXTENT AT THAT TIME. AFTER A LIKELY PERIOD WHERE ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A
WINTRY MIX LIKELY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY TAKE
PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.

THIS LATTER FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY...THUS LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE BASED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL SOME
QUESTIONS AS TO INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL LEAVE THUNDER
MENTION QUIET FOR NOW. APPROACH OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH
AND EJECTION OF A SURFACE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY SHOULD
SPELL A DRY AND BREEZY/POTENTIALLY WINDY DAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOVE AVERAGE ON DOWNSLOPE BREEZES. BETTER AGREEMENT THEN EXISTS
INTO MIDWEEK ON ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS AND POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        12  20  15  38 / 100  80  30  20
TULIA         14  18  16  35 /  90  90  30  30
PLAINVIEW     14  20  18  36 /  90  90  30  30
LEVELLAND     15  22  19  41 /  80  70  30  20
LUBBOCK       15  21  18  39 /  80  80  30  30
DENVER CITY   18  23  21  44 /  80  40  30  20
BROWNFIELD    17  23  20  42 /  80  70  30  20
CHILDRESS     18  21  19  34 /  40  90  30  40
SPUR          17  21  20  37 /  50  80  30  30
ASPERMONT     19  23  22  38 /  30  80  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ025-
026-031-032-037-038-043-044.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

29
193
FXUS64 KLUB 262139
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
339 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA IS
MOVING SEWD ACROSS UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING THIS OPEN WAVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS
IS PRETTY SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO THE AREA EARLIER
TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE QUITE A BIT MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN SEEN WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE. SPECIFICALLY...VERY
STRONG AND BROAD MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PROGGED LATE TONIGHT
MAYBE INDICATED BEST BY 45-55 KT WINDS CROSS-PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE 295K THETA SFC. ADD TO THIS A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAN
CERTAINLY SEE THIS MORNINGS 1/4-INCH TO 2-INCH TOTALS TURN INTO 1 TO
4. HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY IN THE PRIME AREAS OF THE SWRN PANHANDLE
OVER TO SILVERTON WITH SOME ISOLATED 4-PLUS TOTALS POSSIBLE. WILL
ISSUE AN ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SNOWFALL...SPLITTING THE FCST
INTO TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR A LATER START AND FINISH ERN ZONES RELATIVE
TO WEST AND CENTRAL.

OTHER ISSUE TONIGHT IS COLD TEMPS. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW AS WINDS VEER TO THE EAST.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP THE BOTTOM FROM FALLING OUT. SO MOS LOOKING
A BIT COLD...NOT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO...AND WILL TREND
LOWS TOWARD WARMER RAW MODEL TEMPS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE NRN ZONES
FROM FALLING INTO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA /IE LESS THAN MINUS
FIVE/ WITH WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE REBOUND
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING AND CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE AFTN. NEAR MOS AND PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS FINE ATTM...IN
GENERAL ABOUT A FIVE DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE.

.LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. BACKING FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN A PERIOD
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION COMPLETE WITH A STEADY DOSE
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP A RELATIVELY MOIST AND COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER. COLD ENOUGH AIR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY EVENING TO
KEEP EVERYTHING IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO A MIX
WITH FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE OCCURS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE
WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

SNOW SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LIQUID PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH WILL STILL SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE FOR A PERIOD THUS RESULTING IN A MIX OF RAIN
AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. ROAD CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. DRYING ALOFT MAY BRING A LULL SUNDAY...BUT THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL WARRANT KEEPING MENTIONABLE
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT WITH QUESTIONS AS TO ITS
LATITUDINAL EXTENT AT THAT TIME. AFTER A LIKELY PERIOD WHERE ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A
WINTRY MIX LIKELY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY TAKE
PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.

THIS LATTER FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY...THUS LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE BASED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL SOME
QUESTIONS AS TO INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL LEAVE THUNDER
MENTION QUIET FOR NOW. APPROACH OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH
AND EJECTION OF A SURFACE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY SHOULD
SPELL A DRY AND BREEZY/POTENTIALLY WINDY DAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOVE AVERAGE ON DOWNSLOPE BREEZES. BETTER AGREEMENT THEN EXISTS
INTO MIDWEEK ON ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS AND POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        12  20  15  38 / 100  80  30  20
TULIA         14  18  16  35 /  90  90  30  30
PLAINVIEW     14  20  18  36 /  90  90  30  30
LEVELLAND     15  22  19  41 /  80  70  30  20
LUBBOCK       15  21  18  39 /  80  80  30  30
DENVER CITY   18  23  21  44 /  80  40  30  20
BROWNFIELD    17  23  20  42 /  80  70  30  20
CHILDRESS     18  21  19  34 /  40  90  30  40
SPUR          17  21  20  37 /  50  80  30  30
ASPERMONT     19  23  22  38 /  30  80  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ025-
026-031-032-037-038-043-044.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

07/31
491
FXUS64 KLUB 261727
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1127 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
SNOW BASICALLY AT AN END WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING.
POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS NEAR 1200 FT AGL ON THE CAPROCK MAY AFFECT
KPVW AND KLBB EARLY AFTN BUT PREVAILING CIGS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
5KFT AGL. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT.
THIS NEXT ONE LOOKS TO A BIT STRONG THAN THIS MORNINGS WITH A GOOD
6 TO 9 HOUR WINDOW OF SNOWFALL AFFECTING KPVW AND KLBB BY 09Z AND
KCDS TOWARD 12Z WITH LOW END MVFR /IF NOT IFR/ VSBY AND CIG COMBO
LIKELY WITH THE ACCUMLATING SNOWFALL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

UPDATE...
THIS SNOW EVENT IS WINDING DOWN SLOWLY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ALL THAT REMAIN. ALL MODELS HANG ONTO SOME LIGHT SNOW
UNTIL NOON THEN ARE DRY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM LATER TONIGHT. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND KEPT PRECIP
MENTION OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...
MESSY START TO THE MORNING WITH A BAND OF SNOW OCCASIONALLY MIXED
WITH RAIN AT KLBB WHILE KPVW AND KCDS ARE MOSTLY DRY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT KLBB ARE IN THE IFR RANGE WHILE KPVW IS MVFR AND
KCDS IS VFR. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END LATE THIS MORNING AT KLBB
WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR CONDITIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. KPVW SHOULD TRANSITION TO AND KCDS REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT A DECREASE BACK INTO MVFR RANGE AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES AFTER SUNSET WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME AND
IMPACT KLBB AND KPVW AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME SO EXPECT SOME
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE SNOWFALL TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...WET BULB EFFECT HAS HELPED TO RAPIDLY
DROP TEMPERATURES TO BELOW FREEZING IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.  NWS
OFFICE STATION SAW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS BUT THE RATE OF COOLING INCREASED DRAMATICALLY
BETWEEN 0830 AND 0930 UTC AS PRECIPITATION STARTED TO MOVE OVER THE
STATION.  RAPID TRANSITION TO SNOW HAS TAKEN PLACE AND EXPECT THIS
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
PRECIPITATION BAND SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH.  RAIN/SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AS A
RESULT OF STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HELPING TO MOISTEN
THE COLUMN FROM TOP DOWN.  ALSO HELPING WAS STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING IN THE FRONTAL ZONE ALTHOUGH THIS WAS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH
WITH TIME.  WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS OF
LOCALIZED 1 INCH AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS WHERE REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE BEEN THE HIGHEST
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SEES UNDER ONE INCH.  WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY TO SEE IF WE NEED TO EXPEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
SOUTH AND EAST BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT SNOWFALL TOTALS ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF OR MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE TRICKY WITH THE MODELS TRYING TO DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE OUT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. USUALLY IN THESE SITUATIONS...WE SEE
LOW OVERCAST DECK REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AS UPSLOPE SURFACE
FLOW HELPS TO KEEP SOME WEAK TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT IN PLACE.  WITH DRY
AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON...HARD TO TELL WHAT WILL HAPPEN.  WE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
KEEP CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.  TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS...THE FREEZING MARK RUNNING ALONG A LEVELLAND...LUBBOCK...
TURKEY...TO CHILDRESS LINE...AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH OF THAT LINE.
IF WE DO INDEED CLEAR OUT...THAT MAY BE TOO COOL OF A FORECAST AS
SOME SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO OFFSET CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY.

AS THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
ANOTHER ONE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 700 AND 600 HPA WHICH
WILL MOISTEN THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN.  STRONG LIFT WILL ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE SAME LAYER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION.  ADD IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES WELL BELOW FREEZING AND THE SETUP LOOKS TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  MOST FAVORED AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL
DEVELOP IN A SATURATED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE.  FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS LUBBOCK...STRONGEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE JUST BELOW THE GROWTH
ZONE SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY TAPER OFF PRETTY DRASTICALLY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.  ANY SNOWFALL BANDS OR SHIFT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS 50 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST
SIGNIFICANTLY SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD.
LASTLY...THE MOST FAVORED TIME FOR SNOWFALL APPEARS TO START AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THEN LAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.  WITH
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS FROZEN ONCE IT HITS THE SURFACE.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER WE ARE IMMERSED IN WILL CONTINUE ON
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY
BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
INTO THE THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE DEEPEST
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK SHALLOW LIFT...NEAR
SATURATED LOW-LEVELS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD STILL YIELD
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILL VALUES
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO...MODERATING INTO THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINTRY END TO THE
WEEK. THE SNOW EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL LIKELY NEED AN
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST/ALL OF THE CWA...THOUGH
WE ARE GOING TO DEFER THIS UNTIL WE FINISH WITH THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SNOW AFFECTING THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. REGARDING
AMOUNTS...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE FA SHOULD SEE A QUICK ADDITIONAL 1-
3 INCHES...WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY PUSHING THE 4 INCH
THRESHOLD. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE N/NW
ZONES...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SW SOUTH PLAINS.

ANOTHER LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
RACE BY ON SATURDAY...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DEEP LIFT
WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE DIRECTED TO OUR NORTH. STILL...LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE PROSPECTS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY MODERATE. THESE WARMING TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE /LIGHT SLEET...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE/ AS TEMPERATURE WARM QUICKEST ALOFT.
EVENTUALLY ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD MOVE IN AT GROUND LEVEL TO SWITCH
THE PRECIPITATION TO A COLD RAIN/DRIZZLE BY LATE SATURDAY...THOUGH
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OVERALL...ANY ADDITIONAL SN/PL/FZDZ AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT THEY COULD STILL CAUSE
TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES INITIALLY IN PLACE.

THE WARMER AIR MAY BRIEFLY WIN OUT ON SUNDAY...THOUGH EVEN THIS IS
IN QUESTION...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE REGION
SOMETIME SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO ACCEPT THE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BLENDED GUIDANCE UNTIL THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CAN BE
BETTER RESOLVED. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS
NEXT SHOT OF COOLER AIR...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR IS NOT PROJECTED
TO BE AS COLD AS THE ONE CURRENTLY INVADING...BUT IT COULD STILL
DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE FREEZING MARK...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND BRING A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.

EVENTUALLY...DRIER/WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE PROGGED TO WIN OUT
BY TUESDAY AS A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO OR EVEN ABOVE AVERAGE...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY COME WITH
GUSTY WINDS TOO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EJECTING
WAVE...THOUGH WHETHER OR NOT IT MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
IS STILL SUBJECT TO DEBATE. REGARDLESS...THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO RELOAD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE...IN ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER...ON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IT IS DEFINITELY A
FUN AND CHALLENGING TIME TO BE A METEOROLOGIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  10  20  15 /  50  80  70  30
TULIA         29  10  20  16 /  40  70  80  30
PLAINVIEW     30  12  21  18 /  50  60  80  30
LEVELLAND     32  13  23  19 /  40  50  60  30
LUBBOCK       32  13  22  18 /  50  50  70  30
DENVER CITY   34  16  24  21 /  30  40  40  30
BROWNFIELD    34  15  24  20 /  50  40  50  30
CHILDRESS     33  15  22  19 /  20  40  80  30
SPUR          34  15  22  20 /  60  30  70  30
ASPERMONT     35  17  24  22 /  60  20  70  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
864
FXUS64 KLUB 261727
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1127 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
SNOW BASICALLY AT AN END WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING.
POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS NEAR 1200 FT AGL ON THE CAPROCK MAY AFFECT
KPVW AND KLBB EARLY AFTN BUT PREVAILING CIGS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
5KFT AGL. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT.
THIS NEXT ONE LOOKS TO A BIT STRONG THAN THIS MORNINGS WITH A GOOD
6 TO 9 HOUR WINDOW OF SNOWFALL AFFECTING KPVW AND KLBB BY 09Z AND
KCDS TOWARD 12Z WITH LOW END MVFR /IF NOT IFR/ VSBY AND CIG COMBO
LIKELY WITH THE ACCUMLATING SNOWFALL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

UPDATE...
THIS SNOW EVENT IS WINDING DOWN SLOWLY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ALL THAT REMAIN. ALL MODELS HANG ONTO SOME LIGHT SNOW
UNTIL NOON THEN ARE DRY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM LATER TONIGHT. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND KEPT PRECIP
MENTION OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...
MESSY START TO THE MORNING WITH A BAND OF SNOW OCCASIONALLY MIXED
WITH RAIN AT KLBB WHILE KPVW AND KCDS ARE MOSTLY DRY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT KLBB ARE IN THE IFR RANGE WHILE KPVW IS MVFR AND
KCDS IS VFR. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END LATE THIS MORNING AT KLBB
WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR CONDITIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. KPVW SHOULD TRANSITION TO AND KCDS REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT A DECREASE BACK INTO MVFR RANGE AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES AFTER SUNSET WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME AND
IMPACT KLBB AND KPVW AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME SO EXPECT SOME
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE SNOWFALL TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...WET BULB EFFECT HAS HELPED TO RAPIDLY
DROP TEMPERATURES TO BELOW FREEZING IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.  NWS
OFFICE STATION SAW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS BUT THE RATE OF COOLING INCREASED DRAMATICALLY
BETWEEN 0830 AND 0930 UTC AS PRECIPITATION STARTED TO MOVE OVER THE
STATION.  RAPID TRANSITION TO SNOW HAS TAKEN PLACE AND EXPECT THIS
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
PRECIPITATION BAND SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH.  RAIN/SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AS A
RESULT OF STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HELPING TO MOISTEN
THE COLUMN FROM TOP DOWN.  ALSO HELPING WAS STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING IN THE FRONTAL ZONE ALTHOUGH THIS WAS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH
WITH TIME.  WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS OF
LOCALIZED 1 INCH AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS WHERE REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE BEEN THE HIGHEST
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SEES UNDER ONE INCH.  WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY TO SEE IF WE NEED TO EXPEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
SOUTH AND EAST BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT SNOWFALL TOTALS ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF OR MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE TRICKY WITH THE MODELS TRYING TO DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE OUT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. USUALLY IN THESE SITUATIONS...WE SEE
LOW OVERCAST DECK REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AS UPSLOPE SURFACE
FLOW HELPS TO KEEP SOME WEAK TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT IN PLACE.  WITH DRY
AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON...HARD TO TELL WHAT WILL HAPPEN.  WE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
KEEP CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.  TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS...THE FREEZING MARK RUNNING ALONG A LEVELLAND...LUBBOCK...
TURKEY...TO CHILDRESS LINE...AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH OF THAT LINE.
IF WE DO INDEED CLEAR OUT...THAT MAY BE TOO COOL OF A FORECAST AS
SOME SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO OFFSET CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY.

AS THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
ANOTHER ONE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 700 AND 600 HPA WHICH
WILL MOISTEN THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN.  STRONG LIFT WILL ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE SAME LAYER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION.  ADD IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES WELL BELOW FREEZING AND THE SETUP LOOKS TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  MOST FAVORED AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL
DEVELOP IN A SATURATED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE.  FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS LUBBOCK...STRONGEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE JUST BELOW THE GROWTH
ZONE SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY TAPER OFF PRETTY DRASTICALLY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.  ANY SNOWFALL BANDS OR SHIFT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS 50 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST
SIGNIFICANTLY SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD.
LASTLY...THE MOST FAVORED TIME FOR SNOWFALL APPEARS TO START AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THEN LAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.  WITH
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS FROZEN ONCE IT HITS THE SURFACE.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER WE ARE IMMERSED IN WILL CONTINUE ON
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY
BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
INTO THE THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE DEEPEST
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK SHALLOW LIFT...NEAR
SATURATED LOW-LEVELS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD STILL YIELD
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILL VALUES
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO...MODERATING INTO THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINTRY END TO THE
WEEK. THE SNOW EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL LIKELY NEED AN
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST/ALL OF THE CWA...THOUGH
WE ARE GOING TO DEFER THIS UNTIL WE FINISH WITH THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SNOW AFFECTING THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. REGARDING
AMOUNTS...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE FA SHOULD SEE A QUICK ADDITIONAL 1-
3 INCHES...WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY PUSHING THE 4 INCH
THRESHOLD. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE N/NW
ZONES...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SW SOUTH PLAINS.

ANOTHER LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
RACE BY ON SATURDAY...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DEEP LIFT
WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE DIRECTED TO OUR NORTH. STILL...LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE PROSPECTS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY MODERATE. THESE WARMING TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE /LIGHT SLEET...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE/ AS TEMPERATURE WARM QUICKEST ALOFT.
EVENTUALLY ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD MOVE IN AT GROUND LEVEL TO SWITCH
THE PRECIPITATION TO A COLD RAIN/DRIZZLE BY LATE SATURDAY...THOUGH
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OVERALL...ANY ADDITIONAL SN/PL/FZDZ AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT THEY COULD STILL CAUSE
TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES INITIALLY IN PLACE.

THE WARMER AIR MAY BRIEFLY WIN OUT ON SUNDAY...THOUGH EVEN THIS IS
IN QUESTION...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE REGION
SOMETIME SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO ACCEPT THE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BLENDED GUIDANCE UNTIL THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CAN BE
BETTER RESOLVED. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS
NEXT SHOT OF COOLER AIR...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR IS NOT PROJECTED
TO BE AS COLD AS THE ONE CURRENTLY INVADING...BUT IT COULD STILL
DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE FREEZING MARK...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND BRING A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.

EVENTUALLY...DRIER/WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE PROGGED TO WIN OUT
BY TUESDAY AS A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO OR EVEN ABOVE AVERAGE...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY COME WITH
GUSTY WINDS TOO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EJECTING
WAVE...THOUGH WHETHER OR NOT IT MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
IS STILL SUBJECT TO DEBATE. REGARDLESS...THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO RELOAD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE...IN ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER...ON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IT IS DEFINITELY A
FUN AND CHALLENGING TIME TO BE A METEOROLOGIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  10  20  15 /  50  80  70  30
TULIA         29  10  20  16 /  40  70  80  30
PLAINVIEW     30  12  21  18 /  50  60  80  30
LEVELLAND     32  13  23  19 /  40  50  60  30
LUBBOCK       32  13  22  18 /  50  50  70  30
DENVER CITY   34  16  24  21 /  30  40  40  30
BROWNFIELD    34  15  24  20 /  50  40  50  30
CHILDRESS     33  15  22  19 /  20  40  80  30
SPUR          34  15  22  20 /  60  30  70  30
ASPERMONT     35  17  24  22 /  60  20  70  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
857
FXUS64 KLUB 261727
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1127 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
SNOW BASICALLY AT AN END WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING.
POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS NEAR 1200 FT AGL ON THE CAPROCK MAY AFFECT
KPVW AND KLBB EARLY AFTN BUT PREVAILING CIGS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
5KFT AGL. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT.
THIS NEXT ONE LOOKS TO A BIT STRONG THAN THIS MORNINGS WITH A GOOD
6 TO 9 HOUR WINDOW OF SNOWFALL AFFECTING KPVW AND KLBB BY 09Z AND
KCDS TOWARD 12Z WITH LOW END MVFR /IF NOT IFR/ VSBY AND CIG COMBO
LIKELY WITH THE ACCUMLATING SNOWFALL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

UPDATE...
THIS SNOW EVENT IS WINDING DOWN SLOWLY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ALL THAT REMAIN. ALL MODELS HANG ONTO SOME LIGHT SNOW
UNTIL NOON THEN ARE DRY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM LATER TONIGHT. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND KEPT PRECIP
MENTION OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...
MESSY START TO THE MORNING WITH A BAND OF SNOW OCCASIONALLY MIXED
WITH RAIN AT KLBB WHILE KPVW AND KCDS ARE MOSTLY DRY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT KLBB ARE IN THE IFR RANGE WHILE KPVW IS MVFR AND
KCDS IS VFR. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END LATE THIS MORNING AT KLBB
WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR CONDITIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. KPVW SHOULD TRANSITION TO AND KCDS REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT A DECREASE BACK INTO MVFR RANGE AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES AFTER SUNSET WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME AND
IMPACT KLBB AND KPVW AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME SO EXPECT SOME
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE SNOWFALL TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...WET BULB EFFECT HAS HELPED TO RAPIDLY
DROP TEMPERATURES TO BELOW FREEZING IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.  NWS
OFFICE STATION SAW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS BUT THE RATE OF COOLING INCREASED DRAMATICALLY
BETWEEN 0830 AND 0930 UTC AS PRECIPITATION STARTED TO MOVE OVER THE
STATION.  RAPID TRANSITION TO SNOW HAS TAKEN PLACE AND EXPECT THIS
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
PRECIPITATION BAND SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH.  RAIN/SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AS A
RESULT OF STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HELPING TO MOISTEN
THE COLUMN FROM TOP DOWN.  ALSO HELPING WAS STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING IN THE FRONTAL ZONE ALTHOUGH THIS WAS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH
WITH TIME.  WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS OF
LOCALIZED 1 INCH AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS WHERE REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE BEEN THE HIGHEST
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SEES UNDER ONE INCH.  WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY TO SEE IF WE NEED TO EXPEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
SOUTH AND EAST BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT SNOWFALL TOTALS ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF OR MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE TRICKY WITH THE MODELS TRYING TO DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE OUT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. USUALLY IN THESE SITUATIONS...WE SEE
LOW OVERCAST DECK REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AS UPSLOPE SURFACE
FLOW HELPS TO KEEP SOME WEAK TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT IN PLACE.  WITH DRY
AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON...HARD TO TELL WHAT WILL HAPPEN.  WE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
KEEP CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.  TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS...THE FREEZING MARK RUNNING ALONG A LEVELLAND...LUBBOCK...
TURKEY...TO CHILDRESS LINE...AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH OF THAT LINE.
IF WE DO INDEED CLEAR OUT...THAT MAY BE TOO COOL OF A FORECAST AS
SOME SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO OFFSET CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY.

AS THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
ANOTHER ONE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 700 AND 600 HPA WHICH
WILL MOISTEN THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN.  STRONG LIFT WILL ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE SAME LAYER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION.  ADD IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES WELL BELOW FREEZING AND THE SETUP LOOKS TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  MOST FAVORED AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL
DEVELOP IN A SATURATED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE.  FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS LUBBOCK...STRONGEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE JUST BELOW THE GROWTH
ZONE SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY TAPER OFF PRETTY DRASTICALLY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.  ANY SNOWFALL BANDS OR SHIFT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS 50 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST
SIGNIFICANTLY SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD.
LASTLY...THE MOST FAVORED TIME FOR SNOWFALL APPEARS TO START AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THEN LAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.  WITH
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS FROZEN ONCE IT HITS THE SURFACE.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER WE ARE IMMERSED IN WILL CONTINUE ON
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY
BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
INTO THE THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE DEEPEST
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK SHALLOW LIFT...NEAR
SATURATED LOW-LEVELS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD STILL YIELD
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILL VALUES
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO...MODERATING INTO THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINTRY END TO THE
WEEK. THE SNOW EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL LIKELY NEED AN
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST/ALL OF THE CWA...THOUGH
WE ARE GOING TO DEFER THIS UNTIL WE FINISH WITH THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SNOW AFFECTING THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. REGARDING
AMOUNTS...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE FA SHOULD SEE A QUICK ADDITIONAL 1-
3 INCHES...WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY PUSHING THE 4 INCH
THRESHOLD. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE N/NW
ZONES...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SW SOUTH PLAINS.

ANOTHER LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
RACE BY ON SATURDAY...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DEEP LIFT
WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE DIRECTED TO OUR NORTH. STILL...LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE PROSPECTS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY MODERATE. THESE WARMING TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE /LIGHT SLEET...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE/ AS TEMPERATURE WARM QUICKEST ALOFT.
EVENTUALLY ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD MOVE IN AT GROUND LEVEL TO SWITCH
THE PRECIPITATION TO A COLD RAIN/DRIZZLE BY LATE SATURDAY...THOUGH
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OVERALL...ANY ADDITIONAL SN/PL/FZDZ AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT THEY COULD STILL CAUSE
TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES INITIALLY IN PLACE.

THE WARMER AIR MAY BRIEFLY WIN OUT ON SUNDAY...THOUGH EVEN THIS IS
IN QUESTION...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE REGION
SOMETIME SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO ACCEPT THE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BLENDED GUIDANCE UNTIL THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CAN BE
BETTER RESOLVED. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS
NEXT SHOT OF COOLER AIR...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR IS NOT PROJECTED
TO BE AS COLD AS THE ONE CURRENTLY INVADING...BUT IT COULD STILL
DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE FREEZING MARK...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND BRING A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.

EVENTUALLY...DRIER/WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE PROGGED TO WIN OUT
BY TUESDAY AS A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO OR EVEN ABOVE AVERAGE...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY COME WITH
GUSTY WINDS TOO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EJECTING
WAVE...THOUGH WHETHER OR NOT IT MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
IS STILL SUBJECT TO DEBATE. REGARDLESS...THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO RELOAD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE...IN ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER...ON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IT IS DEFINITELY A
FUN AND CHALLENGING TIME TO BE A METEOROLOGIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  10  20  15 /  50  80  70  30
TULIA         29  10  20  16 /  40  70  80  30
PLAINVIEW     30  12  21  18 /  50  60  80  30
LEVELLAND     32  13  23  19 /  40  50  60  30
LUBBOCK       32  13  22  18 /  50  50  70  30
DENVER CITY   34  16  24  21 /  30  40  40  30
BROWNFIELD    34  15  24  20 /  50  40  50  30
CHILDRESS     33  15  22  19 /  20  40  80  30
SPUR          34  15  22  20 /  60  30  70  30
ASPERMONT     35  17  24  22 /  60  20  70  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
255
FXUS64 KLUB 261610
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1010 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THIS SNOW EVENT IS WINDING DOWN SLOWLY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ALL THAT REMAIN. ALL MODELS HANG ONTO SOME LIGHT SNOW
UNTIL NOON THEN ARE DRY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM LATER TONIGHT. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND KEPT PRECIP
MENTION OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...
MESSY START TO THE MORNING WITH A BAND OF SNOW OCCASIONALLY MIXED
WITH RAIN AT KLBB WHILE KPVW AND KCDS ARE MOSTLY DRY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT KLBB ARE IN THE IFR RANGE WHILE KPVW IS MVFR AND
KCDS IS VFR. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END LATE THIS MORNING AT KLBB
WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR CONDITIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. KPVW SHOULD TRANSITION TO AND KCDS REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT A DECREASE BACK INTO MVFR RANGE AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES AFTER SUNSET WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME AND
IMPACT KLBB AND KPVW AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME SO EXPECT SOME
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE SNOWFALL TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...WET BULB EFFECT HAS HELPED TO RAPIDLY
DROP TEMPERATURES TO BELOW FREEZING IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.  NWS
OFFICE STATION SAW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS BUT THE RATE OF COOLING INCREASED DRAMATICALLY
BETWEEN 0830 AND 0930 UTC AS PRECIPITATION STARTED TO MOVE OVER THE
STATION.  RAPID TRANSITION TO SNOW HAS TAKEN PLACE AND EXPECT THIS
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
PRECIPITATION BAND SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH.  RAIN/SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AS A
RESULT OF STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HELPING TO MOISTEN
THE COLUMN FROM TOP DOWN.  ALSO HELPING WAS STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING IN THE FRONTAL ZONE ALTHOUGH THIS WAS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH
WITH TIME.  WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS OF
LOCALIZED 1 INCH AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS WHERE REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE BEEN THE HIGHEST
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SEES UNDER ONE INCH.  WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY TO SEE IF WE NEED TO EXPEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
SOUTH AND EAST BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT SNOWFALL TOTALS ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF OR MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE TRICKY WITH THE MODELS TRYING TO DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE OUT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. USUALLY IN THESE SITUATIONS...WE SEE
LOW OVERCAST DECK REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AS UPSLOPE SURFACE
FLOW HELPS TO KEEP SOME WEAK TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT IN PLACE.  WITH DRY
AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON...HARD TO TELL WHAT WILL HAPPEN.  WE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
KEEP CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.  TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS...THE FREEZING MARK RUNNING ALONG A LEVELLAND...LUBBOCK...
TURKEY...TO CHILDRESS LINE...AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH OF THAT LINE.
IF WE DO INDEED CLEAR OUT...THAT MAY BE TOO COOL OF A FORECAST AS
SOME SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO OFFSET CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY.

AS THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
ANOTHER ONE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 700 AND 600 HPA WHICH
WILL MOISTEN THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN.  STRONG LIFT WILL ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE SAME LAYER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION.  ADD IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES WELL BELOW FREEZING AND THE SETUP LOOKS TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  MOST FAVORED AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL
DEVELOP IN A SATURATED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE.  FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS LUBBOCK...STRONGEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE JUST BELOW THE GROWTH
ZONE SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY TAPER OFF PRETTY DRASTICALLY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.  ANY SNOWFALL BANDS OR SHIFT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS 50 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST
SIGNIFICANTLY SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD.
LASTLY...THE MOST FAVORED TIME FOR SNOWFALL APPEARS TO START AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THEN LAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.  WITH
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS FROZEN ONCE IT HITS THE SURFACE.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER WE ARE IMMERSED IN WILL CONTINUE ON
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY
BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
INTO THE THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE DEEPEST
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK SHALLOW LIFT...NEAR
SATURATED LOW-LEVELS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD STILL YIELD
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILL VALUES
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO...MODERATING INTO THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINTRY END TO THE
WEEK. THE SNOW EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL LIKELY NEED AN
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST/ALL OF THE CWA...THOUGH
WE ARE GOING TO DEFER THIS UNTIL WE FINISH WITH THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SNOW AFFECTING THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. REGARDING
AMOUNTS...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE FA SHOULD SEE A QUICK ADDITIONAL 1-
3 INCHES...WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY PUSHING THE 4 INCH
THRESHOLD. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE N/NW
ZONES...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SW SOUTH PLAINS.

ANOTHER LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
RACE BY ON SATURDAY...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DEEP LIFT
WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE DIRECTED TO OUR NORTH. STILL...LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE PROSPECTS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY MODERATE. THESE WARMING TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE /LIGHT SLEET...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE/ AS TEMPERATURE WARM QUICKEST ALOFT.
EVENTUALLY ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD MOVE IN AT GROUND LEVEL TO SWITCH
THE PRECIPITATION TO A COLD RAIN/DRIZZLE BY LATE SATURDAY...THOUGH
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OVERALL...ANY ADDITIONAL SN/PL/FZDZ AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT THEY COULD STILL CAUSE
TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES INITIALLY IN PLACE.

THE WARMER AIR MAY BRIEFLY WIN OUT ON SUNDAY...THOUGH EVEN THIS IS
IN QUESTION...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE REGION
SOMETIME SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO ACCEPT THE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BLENDED GUIDANCE UNTIL THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CAN BE
BETTER RESOLVED. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS
NEXT SHOT OF COOLER AIR...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR IS NOT PROJECTED
TO BE AS COLD AS THE ONE CURRENTLY INVADING...BUT IT COULD STILL
DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE FREEZING MARK...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND BRING A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.

EVENTUALLY...DRIER/WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE PROGGED TO WIN OUT
BY TUESDAY AS A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO OR EVEN ABOVE AVERAGE...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY COME WITH
GUSTY WINDS TOO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EJECTING
WAVE...THOUGH WHETHER OR NOT IT MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
IS STILL SUBJECT TO DEBATE. REGARDLESS...THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO RELOAD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE...IN ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER...ON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IT IS DEFINITELY A
FUN AND CHALLENGING TIME TO BE A METEOROLOGIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  10  20  15 /  50  80  70  30
TULIA         29  10  20  16 /  40  70  80  30
PLAINVIEW     30  12  21  18 /  50  60  80  30
LEVELLAND     32  13  23  19 /  40  50  60  30
LUBBOCK       32  13  22  18 /  50  50  70  30
DENVER CITY   34  16  24  21 /  30  40  40  30
BROWNFIELD    34  15  24  20 /  50  40  50  30
CHILDRESS     33  15  22  19 /  20  40  80  30
SPUR          34  15  22  20 /  60  30  70  30
ASPERMONT     35  17  24  22 /  60  20  70  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
526
FXUS64 KLUB 261141 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
541 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
MESSY START TO THE MORNING WITH A BAND OF SNOW OCCASIONALLY MIXED
WITH RAIN AT KLBB WHILE KPVW AND KCDS ARE MOSTLY DRY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT KLBB ARE IN THE IFR RANGE WHILE KPVW IS MVFR AND
KCDS IS VFR. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END LATE THIS MORNING AT KLBB
WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR CONDITIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. KPVW SHOULD TRANSITION TO AND KCDS REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT A DECREASE BACK INTO MVFR RANGE AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES AFTER SUNSET WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME AND
IMPACT KLBB AND KPVW AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME SO EXPECT SOME
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE SNOWFALL TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...WET BULB EFFECT HAS HELPED TO RAPIDLY
DROP TEMPERATURES TO BELOW FREEZING IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.  NWS
OFFICE STATION SAW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS BUT THE RATE OF COOLING INCREASED DRAMATICALLY
BETWEEN 0830 AND 0930 UTC AS PRECIPITATION STARTED TO MOVE OVER THE
STATION.  RAPID TRANSITION TO SNOW HAS TAKEN PLACE AND EXPECT THIS
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
PRECIPITATION BAND SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH.  RAIN/SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AS A
RESULT OF STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HELPING TO MOISTEN
THE COLUMN FROM TOP DOWN.  ALSO HELPING WAS STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING IN THE FRONTAL ZONE ALTHOUGH THIS WAS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH
WITH TIME.  WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS OF
LOCALIZED 1 INCH AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS WHERE REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE BEEN THE HIGHEST
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SEES UNDER ONE INCH.  WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY TO SEE IF WE NEED TO EXPEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
SOUTH AND EAST BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT SNOWFALL TOTALS ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF OR MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE TRICKY WITH THE MODELS TRYING TO DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE OUT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. USUALLY IN THESE SITUATIONS...WE SEE
LOW OVERCAST DECK REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AS UPSLOPE SURFACE
FLOW HELPS TO KEEP SOME WEAK TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT IN PLACE.  WITH DRY
AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON...HARD TO TELL WHAT WILL HAPPEN.  WE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
KEEP CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.  TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS...THE FREEZING MARK RUNNING ALONG A LEVELLAND...LUBBOCK...
TURKEY...TO CHILDRESS LINE...AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH OF THAT LINE.
IF WE DO INDEED CLEAR OUT...THAT MAY BE TOO COOL OF A FORECAST AS
SOME SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO OFFSET CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY.

AS THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
ANOTHER ONE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 700 AND 600 HPA WHICH
WILL MOISTEN THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN.  STRONG LIFT WILL ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE SAME LAYER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION.  ADD IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES WELL BELOW FREEZING AND THE SETUP LOOKS TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  MOST FAVORED AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL
DEVELOP IN A SATURATED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE.  FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS LUBBOCK...STRONGEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE JUST BELOW THE GROWTH
ZONE SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY TAPER OFF PRETTY DRASTICALLY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.  ANY SNOWFALL BANDS OR SHIFT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS 50 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST
SIGNIFICANTLY SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD.
LASTLY...THE MOST FAVORED TIME FOR SNOWFALL APPEARS TO START AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THEN LAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.  WITH
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS FROZEN ONCE IT HITS THE SURFACE.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER WE ARE IMMERSED IN WILL CONTINUE ON
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY
BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
INTO THE THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE DEEPEST
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK SHALLOW LIFT...NEAR
SATURATED LOW-LEVELS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD STILL YIELD
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILL VALUES
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO...MODERATING INTO THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINTRY END TO THE
WEEK. THE SNOW EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL LIKELY NEED AN
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST/ALL OF THE CWA...THOUGH
WE ARE GOING TO DEFER THIS UNTIL WE FINISH WITH THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SNOW AFFECTING THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. REGARDING
AMOUNTS...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE FA SHOULD SEE A QUICK ADDITIONAL 1-
3 INCHES...WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY PUSHING THE 4 INCH
THRESHOLD. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE N/NW
ZONES...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SW SOUTH PLAINS.

ANOTHER LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
RACE BY ON SATURDAY...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DEEP LIFT
WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE DIRECTED TO OUR NORTH. STILL...LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE PROSPECTS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY MODERATE. THESE WARMING TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE /LIGHT SLEET...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE/ AS TEMPERATURE WARM QUICKEST ALOFT.
EVENTUALLY ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD MOVE IN AT GROUND LEVEL TO SWITCH
THE PRECIPITATION TO A COLD RAIN/DRIZZLE BY LATE SATURDAY...THOUGH
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OVERALL...ANY ADDITIONAL SN/PL/FZDZ AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT THEY COULD STILL CAUSE
TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES INITIALLY IN PLACE.

THE WARMER AIR MAY BRIEFLY WIN OUT ON SUNDAY...THOUGH EVEN THIS IS
IN QUESTION...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE REGION
SOMETIME SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO ACCEPT THE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BLENDED GUIDANCE UNTIL THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CAN BE
BETTER RESOLVED. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS
NEXT SHOT OF COOLER AIR...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR IS NOT PROJECTED
TO BE AS COLD AS THE ONE CURRENTLY INVADING...BUT IT COULD STILL
DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE FREEZING MARK...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND BRING A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.

EVENTUALLY...DRIER/WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE PROGGED TO WIN OUT
BY TUESDAY AS A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO OR EVEN ABOVE AVERAGE...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY COME WITH
GUSTY WINDS TOO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EJECTING
WAVE...THOUGH WHETHER OR NOT IT MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
IS STILL SUBJECT TO DEBATE. REGARDLESS...THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO RELOAD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE...IN ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER...ON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IT IS DEFINITELY A
FUN AND CHALLENGING TIME TO BE A METEOROLOGIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  10  20  15 /  30  80  70  30
TULIA         29  10  20  16 /  20  70  80  30
PLAINVIEW     30  12  21  18 /  30  60  80  30
LEVELLAND     32  13  23  19 /  30  50  60  30
LUBBOCK       32  13  22  18 /  30  50  70  30
DENVER CITY   34  16  24  21 /  20  40  40  30
BROWNFIELD    34  15  24  20 /  30  40  50  30
CHILDRESS     33  15  22  19 /  20  40  80  30
SPUR          34  15  22  20 /  30  30  70  30
ASPERMONT     35  17  24  22 /  40  20  70  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ021>023-027-028.

&&

$$
904
FXUS64 KLUB 261020
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
420 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...WET BULB EFFECT HAS HELPED TO RAPIDLY
DROP TEMPERATURES TO BELOW FREEZING IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.  NWS
OFFICE STATION SAW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS BUT THE RATE OF COOLING INCREASED DRAMATICALLY
BETWEEN 0830 AND 0930 UTC AS PRECIPITATION STARTED TO MOVE OVER THE
STATION.  RAPID TRANSITION TO SNOW HAS TAKEN PLACE AND EXPECT THIS
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
PRECIPITATION BAND SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH.  RAIN/SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AS A
RESULT OF STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HELPING TO MOISTEN
THE COLUMN FROM TOP DOWN.  ALSO HELPING WAS STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING IN THE FRONTAL ZONE ALTHOUGH THIS WAS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH
WITH TIME.  WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS OF
LOCALIZED 1 INCH AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS WHERE REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE BEEN THE HIGHEST
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SEES UNDER ONE INCH.  WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY TO SEE IF WE NEED TO EXPEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
SOUTH AND EAST BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT SNOWFALL TOTALS ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF OR MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE TRICKY WITH THE MODELS TRYING TO DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE OUT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. USUALLY IN THESE SITUATIONS...WE SEE
LOW OVERCAST DECK REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AS UPSLOPE SURFACE
FLOW HELPS TO KEEP SOME WEAK TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT IN PLACE.  WITH DRY
AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON...HARD TO TELL WHAT WILL HAPPEN.  WE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
KEEP CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.  TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS...THE FREEZING MARK RUNNING ALONG A LEVELLAND...LUBBOCK...
TURKEY...TO CHILDRESS LINE...AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH OF THAT LINE.
IF WE DO INDEED CLEAR OUT...THAT MAY BE TOO COOL OF A FORECAST AS
SOME SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO OFFSET CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY.

AS THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
ANOTHER ONE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 700 AND 600 HPA WHICH
WILL MOISTEN THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN.  STRONG LIFT WILL ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE SAME LAYER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION.  ADD IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES WELL BELOW FREEZING AND THE SETUP LOOKS TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  MOST FAVORED AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL
DEVELOP IN A SATURATED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE.  FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS LUBBOCK...STRONGEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE JUST BELOW THE GROWTH
ZONE SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY TAPER OFF PRETTY DRASTICALLY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.  ANY SNOWFALL BANDS OR SHIFT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS 50 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST
SIGNIFICANTLY SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD.
LASTLY...THE MOST FAVORED TIME FOR SNOWFALL APPEARS TO START AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THEN LAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.  WITH
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS FROZEN ONCE IT HITS THE SURFACE.

JORDAN

.LONG TERM...
THE ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER WE ARE IMMERSED IN WILL CONTINUE ON
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY
BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
INTO THE THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE DEEPEST
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK SHALLOW LIFT...NEAR
SATURATED LOW-LEVELS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD STILL YIELD
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILL VALUES
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO...MODERATING INTO THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINTRY END TO THE
WEEK. THE SNOW EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL LIKELY NEED AN
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST/ALL OF THE CWA...THOUGH
WE ARE GOING TO DEFER THIS UNTIL WE FINISH WITH THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SNOW AFFECTING THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. REGARDING
AMOUNTS...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE FA SHOULD SEE A QUICK ADDITIONAL 1-
3 INCHES...WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY PUSHING THE 4 INCH
THRESHOLD. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE N/NW
ZONES...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SW SOUTH PLAINS.

ANOTHER LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
RACE BY ON SATURDAY...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DEEP LIFT
WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE DIRECTED TO OUR NORTH. STILL...LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE PROSPECTS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY MODERATE. THESE WARMING TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE /LIGHT SLEET...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE/ AS TEMPERATURE WARM QUICKEST ALOFT.
EVENTUALLY ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD MOVE IN AT GROUND LEVEL TO SWITCH
THE PRECIPITATION TO A COLD RAIN/DRIZZLE BY LATE SATURDAY...THOUGH
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OVERALL...ANY ADDITIONAL SN/PL/FZDZ AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT THEY COULD STILL CAUSE
TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES INITIALLY IN PLACE.

THE WARMER AIR MAY BRIEFLY WIN OUT ON SUNDAY...THOUGH EVEN THIS IS
IN QUESTION...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE REGION
SOMETIME SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO ACCEPT THE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BLENDED GUIDANCE UNTIL THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CAN BE
BETTER RESOLVED. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS
NEXT SHOT OF COOLER AIR...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR IS NOT PROJECTED
TO BE AS COLD AS THE ONE CURRENTLY INVADING...BUT IT COULD STILL
DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE FREEZING MARK...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND BRING A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.

EVENTUALLY...DRIER/WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE PROGGED TO WIN OUT
BY TUESDAY AS A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO OR EVEN ABOVE AVERAGE...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY COME WITH
GUSTY WINDS TOO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EJECTING
WAVE...THOUGH WHETHER OR NOT IT MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
IS STILL SUBJECT TO DEBATE. REGARDLESS...THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO RELOAD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE...IN ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER...ON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IT IS DEFINITELY A
FUN AND CHALLENGING TIME TO BE A METEOROLOGIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  10  20  15 /  30  80  70  30
TULIA         29  10  20  16 /  20  70  80  30
PLAINVIEW     30  12  21  18 /  30  60  80  30
LEVELLAND     32  13  23  19 /  30  50  60  30
LUBBOCK       32  13  22  18 /  30  50  70  30
DENVER CITY   34  16  24  21 /  20  40  40  30
BROWNFIELD    34  15  24  20 /  30  40  50  30
CHILDRESS     33  15  22  19 /  20  40  80  30
SPUR          34  15  22  20 /  30  30  70  30
ASPERMONT     35  17  24  22 /  40  20  70  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ021>023-027-028.

&&

$$

14/23
637
FXUS64 KLUB 260538
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1138 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.AVIATION...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15-16 KTS
SUSTAINED AT KLBB AND KPVW...AND AOA 10 KTS AT KCDS. WILL EXPECT
SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 16-20 KTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
-RA AFFECTING KLBB PER LATEST METAR...AND WILL PROBABLY SOON
AFFECT KPVW WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE OF IT AFFECTING KCDS. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO -SN OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS DROP
TO/BELOW FREEZING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THIS ACTIVITY
AFFECTING KLBB AND KPVW...MORE SO THAN KCDS. A TEMPO GROUP WILL
THEREFORE BE MAINTAINED AT KLBB AND KPVW FOR -SN AND MVFR CLOUD
DECKS /THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT IFR CIGS/. TOMORROW MORNING...NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP TO BELOW 14 KTS AS BKN-OVC VFR
CIGS PASS OVERHEAD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA IS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY SEWD OVER COLORADO AS OF MID-
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT NOTED AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS NERN NEW MEXICO INTO SERN COLORADO PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND OBS WITH A RAPIDLY INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. THIS
LIFT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE
FCST AREA BY MID EVENING AIDED BY SOME MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER INCREASINGLY DEEP COLD AIR MASS THAT WILL BE MOVING IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT HAVING ALREADY MOVED
INTO THE FCST AREA. DYNAMIC LIFT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD MID-MORNING WITH SNOW COMING TO AN END BY
NOON. AGREE WITH MODELS IN THAT THE SNOW-PRONE AREAS OF THE NWRN
FCST AREA STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING 1 TO MAYBE 2 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS EVENT AND WILL HOIST A WINTER WX ADVISORY LATE THIS
EVENING TO MID MORNING THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...A LITTLE LESS TO THE EAST.

COLD...CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY DAY IN STORE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY A
LITTLE COOLER THAN MODELS AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTATION
OF THICK CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. LIKELY PRECIP-FREE DURING THE
AFTN IN LULL BETWEEN TONIGHTS SYSTEM AND THE NEXT ONE THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...
NEXT UPPER IMPULSE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED NEAR WESTERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS COME THURSDAY
EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL FROM THE
FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH NOT VERY AMPLIFIED...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE
SUPPORT OF A 100+ KNOT POLAR JET. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE AS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ALONG WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY. SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD PUSH AROUND 15:1 WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS FIRMLY
IN PLACE AND STOUT OMEGA PROFILES STRETCHING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL SEE THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...TOPPING OUT IN THE 3-4 INCH RANGE FROM
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AREAS FARTHER SOUTH LOOK TO
STILL MAINLY RESIDE IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL
ACCUMULATE AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 20S
UNDERNEATH OVERCAST SKIES. BREEZY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS FRIDAY MORNING TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT THE BRUNT OF THIS ONE LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME...PERHAPS LENDING TO ANOTHER
DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL BY SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW-MID LEVEL SATURATION.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CARVING OUT ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD BAJA. THIS REGIME WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...LEADING TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ATOP A COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SNOW SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO RAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT SHOULD ALSO BRING
SOME FREEZING RAIN TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING
PLAINS BEFORE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENCROACH FROM THE NORTH BY LATER
SUNDAY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE OFFING WITH PHASE
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE. STILL
EXPECTING A WARMUP INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE FRONT IN
SUBSEQUENT DAYS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST OR IF THE COLD AIR CAN RETREAT NORTH THUS PLACING
WEST TEXAS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WESTERN UPPER
TROUGH. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF RAIN AT THIS POINT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY IN REGARDS TO THUNDER
CHANCES. NONETHELESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE THE SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH AND USHERS IN ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        21  27  10  21 /  90  30  80  50
TULIA         23  29  12  20 /  80  20  70  70
PLAINVIEW     25  30  13  21 /  70  20  60  60
LEVELLAND     26  32  14  25 /  60  20  50  50
LUBBOCK       26  32  13  24 /  60  20  50  60
DENVER CITY   29  34  17  26 /  10  20  40  40
BROWNFIELD    29  34  16  25 /  20  20  40  40
CHILDRESS     27  33  15  23 /  20  10  40  80
SPUR          27  34  16  24 /  30  20  30  60
ASPERMONT     29  35  20  27 /  10  20  20  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ021>023-
027-028.

&&

$$

29
623
FXUS64 KLUB 252324
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
524 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.AVIATION...
SLIGHTLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME BREEZIER THROUGHOUT EVENING INTO TONIGHT /15-20 KTS/.
COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE
AT A QUICK SHOT OF -SN...MORE SO AT KPVW AND KPVW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WILL THEREFORE SEE CIGS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY INTO IFR CATEGORY AT KPVW AND
KLBB. BY TOMORROW MORNING...WIND SPEEDS WILL DECLINE TO 10-14 KTS
AND CIGS WILL RISE TO VFR CATEGORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA IS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY SEWD OVER COLORADO AS OF MID-
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT NOTED AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS NERN NEW MEXICO INTO SERN COLORADO PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND OBS WITH A RAPIDLY INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. THIS
LIFT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE
FCST AREA BY MID EVENING AIDED BY SOME MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER INCREASINGLY DEEP COLD AIR MASS THAT WILL BE MOVING IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT HAVING ALREADY MOVED
INTO THE FCST AREA. DYNAMIC LIFT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD MID-MORNING WITH SNOW COMING TO AN END BY
NOON. AGREE WITH MODELS IN THAT THE SNOW-PRONE AREAS OF THE NWRN
FCST AREA STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING 1 TO MAYBE 2 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS EVENT AND WILL HOIST A WINTER WX ADVISORY LATE THIS
EVENING TO MID MORNING THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...A LITTLE LESS TO THE EAST.

COLD...CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY DAY IN STORE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY A
LITTLE COOLER THAN MODELS AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTATION
OF THICK CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. LIKELY PRECIP-FREE DURING THE
AFTN IN LULL BETWEEN TONIGHTS SYSTEM AND THE NEXT ONE THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...
NEXT UPPER IMPULSE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED NEAR WESTERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS COME THURSDAY
EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL FROM THE
FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH NOT VERY AMPLIFIED...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE
SUPPORT OF A 100+ KNOT POLAR JET. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE AS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ALONG WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY. SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD PUSH AROUND 15:1 WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS FIRMLY
IN PLACE AND STOUT OMEGA PROFILES STRETCHING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL SEE THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...TOPPING OUT IN THE 3-4 INCH RANGE FROM
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AREAS FARTHER SOUTH LOOK TO
STILL MAINLY RESIDE IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL
ACCUMULATE AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 20S
UNDERNEATH OVERCAST SKIES. BREEZY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS FRIDAY MORNING TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT THE BRUNT OF THIS ONE LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME...PERHAPS LENDING TO ANOTHER
DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL BY SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW-MID LEVEL SATURATION.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CARVING OUT ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD BAJA. THIS REGIME WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...LEADING TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ATOP A COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SNOW SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO RAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT SHOULD ALSO BRING
SOME FREEZING RAIN TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING
PLAINS BEFORE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENCROACH FROM THE NORTH BY LATER
SUNDAY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE OFFING WITH PHASE
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE. STILL
EXPECTING A WARMUP INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE FRONT IN
SUBSEQUENT DAYS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST OR IF THE COLD AIR CAN RETREAT NORTH THUS PLACING
WEST TEXAS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WESTERN UPPER
TROUGH. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF RAIN AT THIS POINT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY IN REGARDS TO THUNDER
CHANCES. NONETHELESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE THE SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH AND USHERS IN ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        21  27  10  21 /  90  30  80  50
TULIA         23  29  12  20 /  80  20  70  70
PLAINVIEW     25  30  13  21 /  70  20  60  60
LEVELLAND     26  32  14  25 /  60  20  50  50
LUBBOCK       26  32  13  24 /  60  20  50  60
DENVER CITY   29  34  17  26 /  10  20  40  40
BROWNFIELD    29  34  16  25 /  20  20  40  40
CHILDRESS     27  33  15  23 /  20  10  40  80
SPUR          27  34  16  24 /  30  20  30  60
ASPERMONT     29  35  20  27 /  10  20  20  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TXZ021>023-027-028.

&&

$$

29
255
FXUS64 KLUB 252147
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
347 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA IS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY SEWD OVER COLORADO AS OF MID-
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT NOTED AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS NERN NEW MEXICO INTO SERN COLORADO PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND OBS WITH A RAPIDLY INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. THIS
LIFT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE
FCST AREA BY MID EVENING AIDED BY SOME MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER INCREASINGLY DEEP COLD AIR MASS THAT WILL BE MOVING IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT HAVING ALREADY MOVED
INTO THE FCST AREA. DYNAMIC LIFT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD MID-MORNING WITH SNOW COMING TO AN END BY
NOON. AGREE WITH MODELS IN THAT THE SNOW-PRONE AREAS OF THE NWRN
FCST AREA STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING 1 TO MAYBE 2 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS EVENT AND WILL HOIST A WINTER WX ADVISORY LATE THIS
EVENING TO MID MORNING THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...A LITTLE LESS TO THE EAST.

COLD...CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY DAY IN STORE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY A
LITTLE COOLER THAN MODELS AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTATION
OF THICK CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. LIKELY PRECIP-FREE DURING THE
AFTN IN LULL BETWEEN TONIGHTS SYSTEM AND THE NEXT ONE THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...
NEXT UPPER IMPULSE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED NEAR WESTERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS COME THURSDAY
EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL FROM THE
FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH NOT VERY AMPLIFIED...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE
SUPPORT OF A 100+ KNOT POLAR JET. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE AS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ALONG WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY. SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD PUSH AROUND 15:1 WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS FIRMLY
IN PLACE AND STOUT OMEGA PROFILES STRETCHING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL SEE THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...TOPPING OUT IN THE 3-4 INCH RANGE FROM
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AREAS FARTHER SOUTH LOOK TO
STILL MAINLY RESIDE IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL
ACCUMULATE AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 20S
UNDERNEATH OVERCAST SKIES. BREEZY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS FRIDAY MORNING TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT THE BRUNT OF THIS ONE LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME...PERHAPS LENDING TO ANOTHER
DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL BY SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW-MID LEVEL SATURATION.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CARVING OUT ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD BAJA. THIS REGIME WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...LEADING TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ATOP A COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SNOW SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO RAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT SHOULD ALSO BRING
SOME FREEZING RAIN TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING
PLAINS BEFORE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENCROACH FROM THE NORTH BY LATER
SUNDAY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE OFFING WITH PHASE
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE. STILL
EXPECTING A WARMUP INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE FRONT IN
SUBSEQUENT DAYS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST OR IF THE COLD AIR CAN RETREAT NORTH THUS PLACING
WEST TEXAS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WESTERN UPPER
TROUGH. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF RAIN AT THIS POINT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY IN REGARDS TO THUNDER
CHANCES. NONETHELESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE THE SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH AND USHERS IN ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        21  27  10  21 /  90  30  80  50
TULIA         23  29  12  20 /  80  20  70  70
PLAINVIEW     25  30  13  21 /  70  20  60  60
LEVELLAND     26  32  14  25 /  60  20  50  50
LUBBOCK       26  32  13  24 /  60  20  50  60
DENVER CITY   29  34  17  26 /  10  20  40  40
BROWNFIELD    29  34  16  25 /  20  20  40  40
CHILDRESS     27  33  15  23 /  20  10  40  80
SPUR          27  34  16  24 /  30  20  30  60
ASPERMONT     29  35  20  27 /  10  20  20  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TXZ021>023-027-028.

&&

$$

07/31
365
FXUS64 KLUB 251758
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1158 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.AVIATION...
QUICK SHOT AT LIGHT SNOW AT KPVW AND KLBB BTWN 06Z AND 12Z AS A
FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
BEFOREHAND WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE PAST THE TERMINALS BY 03Z
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR AND CIGS DOWN TOWARD THE LOW END OF VFR
CATEGORY. COULD SEE SOME LOWER CIGS DEVELOP WITH THE SNOW LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND SUNSET WHICH WILL SWING THE WIND TO THE NORTH
AND USHER IN A LAYER OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW
LOW THE CEILINGS WILL BE BUT EXPECT THEM TO START OFF MVFR WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME SNOW AT KPVW AND KLBB BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME IN THE TAFS.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A CLOSED
LOW MOVING OUT ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
PUSHING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.  THE
DRIER AIR HAS HELPED TO REDUCE COVERAGE OF RADAR RETURNS THAT WERE
MOVING FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS.  AT THE SURFACE...DEWPOINTS WERE SOMEWHAT LOWER
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE NARROWING JUST A BIT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN.  SURFACE WIND HAS VEERED TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE REGION WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS.  WITH A BREAK
IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND A SLOW
CONTINUED VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
MANAGE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BE A NICE...ALTHOUGH BRIEF...BREAK FROM THE WINTER
WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN.

AS THE CLOSED LOW SWINGS OUT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...A QUICK MOVING AND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.  WIND SPEEDS WILL RAMP UP THROUGH MIDNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP.
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S FOR THE CAPROCK AND NEAR 30 FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS BY
THURSDAY MORNING.  ALSO DIVING SOUTH WILL BE A DECENT SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.  MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE ALL BELOW FREEZING SO
EXPECT TO SEE ALL SNOW IN THIS AREA.  SOME OF THE SNOW COULD MAKE IT
AS FAR SOUTH AS A BROWNFIELD...LUBBOCK...TO SILVERTON LINE WHILE THE
ROLLING PLAINS SHOULD MISS OUT.  ACCUMULATIONS MAY MANAGE TO MAKE IT
UP TO AN INCH UP AROUND DIMMITT AND FRIONA BEFORE SUNRISE AS THIS IS
THE MOST FAVORED AREA IN THE MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION.  SINCE THERE
HAS BEEN VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS...OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT ALSO SLOW HOW FAST THE SNOW SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR AND MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR WINTRY
WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK...AND MAYBE EVEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

INITIALLY AFTER 12Z ON THURSDAY WE COULD SOME LINGERING SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND COVERAGE WILL
WANE WITH TIME AS THE UPPER SUPPORT EXITS TO THE EAST AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS. STILL...AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO
MAYBE AS MUCH AS A HALF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
AFTER 12Z RESIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MOST SPOTS WILL BE DRY...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER NEAR THE TX/NM LINE. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH
A 1045 MB HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CHILLY...WITH READINGS ONLY PEAKING IN THE UPPER 20S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER OR MIDDLE 30S SOUTHEAST.

THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO WEST TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST SPOTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE PAIRED WITH BRISK EASTERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS DOWN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
ZERO. IN ADDITION...WE WILL BE WATCHING OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...IN
THE FORM OF A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THAT
WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE REMAINS SOME
QUESTION REGARDING THE EXACT LATITUDE IT WILL MOVE BY...AND THIS
RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHERE THE BEST SWATH OF
SNOW WILL BE DROPPED. THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION IS FURTHEST
NORTH...AND WOULD FAVOR OUR NORTHERLY ZONES...WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
GUIDANCE IS ABOUT 100 MILE FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN
THE ENTIRE CWA RECEIVING A DECENT QUICK BURST OF SNOW LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS
AND PAINT A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. INITIALLY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME SOME DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR...BUT ONCE IT DOES SO...THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOULD
SUPPORT RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW RATIOS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS. EVEN
SO...THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY WANE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RACES OFF TO THE EAST. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...THOUGH THIS WILL BE REFINED AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
EXACTLY WHERE THE QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK. WE DO PLAN
ON ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT BOUT
OF COLD AND WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES COULD LINGER FROM LATE FRIDAY ON INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING RIPPLE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MIGHT THEN RACE BY ON SATURDAY...ENHANCING
THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT...THOUGH CURRENT PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THIS WAVE
MAY BE DIRECTED TO OUR NORTH. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ON SATURDAY...WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA KEEPING THE
PROSPECTS FOR LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT MOISTURE. THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS THE WARM
AIR ATTEMPTS TO DISLODGE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE GIVEN THE STRONG
WAA...THOUGH ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY FOLLOW SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON TOP OF THE NEXT
INVADING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING ON
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE WINTRY MIX SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...DEPENDING HOW COLD THE AIR IS BEHIND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. ATTM...WE HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE AREA
LIQUID...THOUGH DO ADVERTISE A RA/SN MIX ACROSS THE NORTH.

THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO EJECT EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THE 00Z GFS EVEN SUGGESTS THE WARM SECTOR COULD
SURGE NORTHWARD FAR ENOUGH TO BRING A SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
EASTERN ZONES LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS ARE
LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE COOL SURFACE AIRMASS BEING DISLODGED
THAT QUICKLY. EVEN ONCE WHAT REMAINS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW
EJECTS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
RELOAD...SO THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  23  28  10 /   0  50  30  70
TULIA         56  24  29  12 /   0  30  20  60
PLAINVIEW     58  26  30  13 /   0  30  20  60
LEVELLAND     59  27  33  14 /   0  20  20  50
LUBBOCK       60  27  33  13 /   0  20  20  50
DENVER CITY   58  29  35  17 /   0  10  20  40
BROWNFIELD    59  29  35  16 /   0  10  20  40
CHILDRESS     57  27  33  15 /   0  20  10  30
SPUR          60  29  35  16 /   0  10  20  30
ASPERMONT     59  30  36  20 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
201
FXUS64 KLUB 251126 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND SUNSET WHICH WILL SWING THE WIND TO THE NORTH
AND USHER IN A LAYER OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW
LOW THE CEILINGS WILL BE BUT EXPECT THEM TO START OFF MVFR WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME SNOW AT KPVW AND KLBB BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME IN THE TAFS.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A CLOSED
LOW MOVING OUT ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
PUSHING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.  THE
DRIER AIR HAS HELPED TO REDUCE COVERAGE OF RADAR RETURNS THAT WERE
MOVING FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS.  AT THE SURFACE...DEWPOINTS WERE SOMEWHAT LOWER
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE NARROWING JUST A BIT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN.  SURFACE WIND HAS VEERED TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE REGION WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS.  WITH A BREAK
IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND A SLOW
CONTINUED VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
MANAGE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BE A NICE...ALTHOUGH BRIEF...BREAK FROM THE WINTER
WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN.

AS THE CLOSED LOW SWINGS OUT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...A QUICK MOVING AND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.  WIND SPEEDS WILL RAMP UP THROUGH MIDNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP.
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S FOR THE CAPROCK AND NEAR 30 FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS BY
THURSDAY MORNING.  ALSO DIVING SOUTH WILL BE A DECENT SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.  MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE ALL BELOW FREEZING SO
EXPECT TO SEE ALL SNOW IN THIS AREA.  SOME OF THE SNOW COULD MAKE IT
AS FAR SOUTH AS A BROWNFIELD...LUBBOCK...TO SILVERTON LINE WHILE THE
ROLLING PLAINS SHOULD MISS OUT.  ACCUMULATIONS MAY MANAGE TO MAKE IT
UP TO AN INCH UP AROUND DIMMITT AND FRIONA BEFORE SUNRISE AS THIS IS
THE MOST FAVORED AREA IN THE MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION.  SINCE THERE
HAS BEEN VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS...OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT ALSO SLOW HOW FAST THE SNOW SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR AND MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR WINTRY
WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK...AND MAYBE EVEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

INITIALLY AFTER 12Z ON THURSDAY WE COULD SOME LINGERING SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND COVERAGE WILL
WANE WITH TIME AS THE UPPER SUPPORT EXITS TO THE EAST AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS. STILL...AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO
MAYBE AS MUCH AS A HALF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
AFTER 12Z RESIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MOST SPOTS WILL BE DRY...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER NEAR THE TX/NM LINE. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH
A 1045 MB HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CHILLY...WITH READINGS ONLY PEAKING IN THE UPPER 20S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER OR MIDDLE 30S SOUTHEAST.

THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO WEST TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST SPOTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE PAIRED WITH BRISK EASTERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS DOWN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
ZERO. IN ADDITION...WE WILL BE WATCHING OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...IN
THE FORM OF A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THAT
WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE REMAINS SOME
QUESTION REGARDING THE EXACT LATITUDE IT WILL MOVE BY...AND THIS
RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHERE THE BEST SWATH OF
SNOW WILL BE DROPPED. THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION IS FURTHEST
NORTH...AND WOULD FAVOR OUR NORTHERLY ZONES...WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
GUIDANCE IS ABOUT 100 MILE FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN
THE ENTIRE CWA RECEIVING A DECENT QUICK BURST OF SNOW LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS
AND PAINT A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. INITIALLY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME SOME DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR...BUT ONCE IT DOES SO...THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOULD
SUPPORT RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW RATIOS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS. EVEN
SO...THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY WANE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RACES OFF TO THE EAST. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...THOUGH THIS WILL BE REFINED AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
EXACTLY WHERE THE QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK. WE DO PLAN
ON ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT BOUT
OF COLD AND WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES COULD LINGER FROM LATE FRIDAY ON INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING RIPPLE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MIGHT THEN RACE BY ON SATURDAY...ENHANCING
THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT...THOUGH CURRENT PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THIS WAVE
MAY BE DIRECTED TO OUR NORTH. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ON SATURDAY...WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA KEEPING THE
PROSPECTS FOR LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT MOISTURE. THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS THE WARM
AIR ATTEMPTS TO DISLODGE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE GIVEN THE STRONG
WAA...THOUGH ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY FOLLOW SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON TOP OF THE NEXT
INVADING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING ON
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE WINTRY MIX SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...DEPENDING HOW COLD THE AIR IS BEHIND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. ATTM...WE HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE AREA
LIQUID...THOUGH DO ADVERTISE A RA/SN MIX ACROSS THE NORTH.

THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO EJECT EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THE 00Z GFS EVEN SUGGESTS THE WARM SECTOR COULD
SURGE NORTHWARD FAR ENOUGH TO BRING A SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
EASTERN ZONES LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS ARE
LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE COOL SURFACE AIRMASS BEING DISLODGED
THAT QUICKLY. EVEN ONCE WHAT REMAINS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW
EJECTS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
RELOAD...SO THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  23  28  10 /   0  50  30  70
TULIA         56  24  29  12 /   0  30  20  60
PLAINVIEW     58  26  30  13 /   0  30  20  60
LEVELLAND     59  27  33  14 /   0  20  20  50
LUBBOCK       60  27  33  13 /   0  20  20  50
DENVER CITY   58  29  35  17 /   0  10  20  40
BROWNFIELD    59  29  35  16 /   0  10  20  40
CHILDRESS     57  27  33  15 /   0  20  10  30
SPUR          60  29  35  16 /   0  10  20  30
ASPERMONT     59  30  36  20 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99
857
FXUS64 KLUB 251032
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
432 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A CLOSED
LOW MOVING OUT ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
PUSHING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.  THE
DRIER AIR HAS HELPED TO REDUCE COVERAGE OF RADAR RETURNS THAT WERE
MOVING FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS.  AT THE SURFACE...DEWPOINTS WERE SOMEWHAT LOWER
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE NARROWING JUST A BIT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN.  SURFACE WIND HAS VEERED TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE REGION WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS.  WITH A BREAK
IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND A SLOW
CONTINUED VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
MANAGE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BE A NICE...ALTHOUGH BRIEF...BREAK FROM THE WINTER
WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN.

AS THE CLOSED LOW SWINGS OUT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...A QUICK MOVING AND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.  WIND SPEEDS WILL RAMP UP THROUGH MIDNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP.
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S FOR THE CAPROCK AND NEAR 30 FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS BY
THURSDAY MORNING.  ALSO DIVING SOUTH WILL BE A DECENT SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.  MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE ALL BELOW FREEZING SO
EXPECT TO SEE ALL SNOW IN THIS AREA.  SOME OF THE SNOW COULD MAKE IT
AS FAR SOUTH AS A BROWNFIELD...LUBBOCK...TO SILVERTON LINE WHILE THE
ROLLING PLAINS SHOULD MISS OUT.  ACCUMULATIONS MAY MANAGE TO MAKE IT
UP TO AN INCH UP AROUND DIMMITT AND FRIONA BEFORE SUNRISE AS THIS IS
THE MOST FAVORED AREA IN THE MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION.  SINCE THERE
HAS BEEN VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS...OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT ALSO SLOW HOW FAST THE SNOW SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.

JORDAN

.LONG TERM...
AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR AND MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR WINTRY
WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK...AND MAYBE EVEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

INITIALLY AFTER 12Z ON THURSDAY WE COULD SOME LINGERING SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND COVERAGE WILL
WANE WITH TIME AS THE UPPER SUPPORT EXITS TO THE EAST AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS. STILL...AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO
MAYBE AS MUCH AS A HALF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
AFTER 12Z RESIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MOST SPOTS WILL BE DRY...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER NEAR THE TX/NM LINE. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH
A 1045 MB HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CHILLY...WITH READINGS ONLY PEAKING IN THE UPPER 20S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER OR MIDDLE 30S SOUTHEAST.

THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO WEST TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST SPOTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE PAIRED WITH BRISK EASTERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS DOWN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
ZERO. IN ADDITION...WE WILL BE WATCHING OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...IN
THE FORM OF A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THAT
WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE REMAINS SOME
QUESTION REGARDING THE EXACT LATITUDE IT WILL MOVE BY...AND THIS
RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHERE THE BEST SWATH OF
SNOW WILL BE DROPPED. THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION IS FURTHEST
NORTH...AND WOULD FAVOR OUR NORTHERLY ZONES...WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
GUIDANCE IS ABOUT 100 MILE FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN
THE ENTIRE CWA RECEIVING A DECENT QUICK BURST OF SNOW LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS
AND PAINT A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. INITIALLY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME SOME DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR...BUT ONCE IT DOES SO...THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOULD
SUPPORT RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW RATIOS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS. EVEN
SO...THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY WANE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RACES OFF TO THE EAST. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...THOUGH THIS WILL BE REFINED AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
EXACTLY WHERE THE QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK. WE DO PLAN
ON ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT BOUT
OF COLD AND WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES COULD LINGER FROM LATE FRIDAY ON INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING RIPPLE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MIGHT THEN RACE BY ON SATURDAY...ENHANCING
THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT...THOUGH CURRENT PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THIS WAVE
MAY BE DIRECTED TO OUR NORTH. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ON SATURDAY...WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA KEEPING THE
PROSPECTS FOR LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT MOISTURE. THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS THE WARM
AIR ATTEMPTS TO DISLODGE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE GIVEN THE STRONG
WAA...THOUGH ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY FOLLOW SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON TOP OF THE NEXT
INVADING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING ON
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE WINTRY MIX SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...DEPENDING HOW COLD THE AIR IS BEHIND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. ATTM...WE HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE AREA
LIQUID...THOUGH DO ADVERTISE A RA/SN MIX ACROSS THE NORTH.

THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO EJECT EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THE 00Z GFS EVEN SUGGESTS THE WARM SECTOR COULD
SURGE NORTHWARD FAR ENOUGH TO BRING A SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
EASTERN ZONES LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS ARE
LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE COOL SURFACE AIRMASS BEING DISLODGED
THAT QUICKLY. EVEN ONCE WHAT REMAINS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW
EJECTS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
RELOAD...SO THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  23  28  10 /   0  50  30  70
TULIA         56  24  29  12 /   0  30  20  60
PLAINVIEW     58  26  30  13 /   0  30  20  60
LEVELLAND     59  27  33  14 /   0  20  20  50
LUBBOCK       60  27  33  13 /   0  20  20  50
DENVER CITY   58  29  35  17 /   0  10  20  40
BROWNFIELD    59  29  35  16 /   0  10  20  40
CHILDRESS     57  27  33  15 /   0  20  10  30
SPUR          60  29  35  16 /   0  10  20  30
ASPERMONT     59  30  36  20 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/23
397
FXUS64 KLUB 250550
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.AVIATION...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SKIRT AROUND ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINING OFF TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS FARTHER NORTH
BRINGING PERHAPS FLURRIES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KCDS. MID
CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A FEW CIRRUS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS
REMAIN WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...VEERING WINDS NORTHEASTERLY WHILE
INCREASING TO 12-15 KNOTS AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR CEILINGS BY
06Z TOO LOW TO MAKE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS PROGGED TO
MOVE EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SPLITTING SOME OF THE ENERGY IN THAT LOW...INITIALLY BY
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW CLOSED FEATURE OVER NRN NEW MEXICO WHILE
BULK OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG VORT MAX IN THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND A 130-PLUS KT JET AT 250 MB MOVES FROM SRN NEW
MEXICO ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS LATTER STRONGER
FEATURE WILL FOCUS PRECIPITATION FROM THE SACRAMENTO...GUADALUPE AND
DAVIS RANGES EWD THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SRN BIG COUNTRY...
POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE EXTREME SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA...IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST. FURTHER NORTH UNDERNEATH
THE NEWLY- DEVELOPED NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE LOW...SOME MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE PRESENT WITH THE COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT...BUT MINIMIZED GIVEN NOCTURNAL TIMING. ANY PRECIP THAT IS
GENERATED WILL HAVE TO WORK THROUGH DRY SUB-CLOUD AIR FURTHER
LIMITING SFC PRECIP POTENTIAL. COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES FURTHER
NORTH TOWARD THE SRN PANHANDLE... BUT EVEN THAT LOOKS SLIM. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT SLIGHT CHC POPS TO THE SRN EXTREMITY OF THE FCST
AREA ATTM.

CLEARING SKIES...MODEST WEST WINDS...AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PROGGED TO ARRIVE LATE IN
THE DAY...ALL POINT TO A NICE...ALBEIT BRIEF...WARMUP. 12Z NAM-BASED
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE COOLED DOWN QUITE A BIT FOR WEDNESDAYS HIGHS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS MAY BE RELATED IN PART TO PERCEIVED
OVERABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY STRATUS ACROSS THE
WRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH HALF OF THE DAY. PREFER WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE BASED ON GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF...AND NEAR
PREVIOUS FCST.

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED PERIODS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY ACTIVE WITH
A SERIES OF IMPULSES AND ANOTHER VERY COLD INTRUSION. THIS NEXT
PLUNGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE SPREADING IN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH MOST SOLUTIONS TRENDING A BIT FASTER AND COLDER. THERE
APPEARS TO BE SOME POSSIBILITY FOR LOW LEVEL SATURATION JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT PERHAPS LEADING TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH EARLY THURSDAY...BUT DRY AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD MINIMIZE CHANCES FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. A MOIST LAYER NEAR 700MB - 750MB LOOKS LIKE IT MAY
PERSIST ABOVE THE DRY LOWER LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF OR ALL DAY
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. MID AND UPPER FLOW
WILL BACK LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF ONE OF THE MODEST WAVES HELPING
TO CARVE OUT THE NEW WESTERN U.S. TROUGH...AND WILL EJECT OVER THE
AREA EARLY FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE 295K POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE LAYER NEAR 700 MB WITH
THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER AND SHOULD BEGIN PRECIPITATING
INTO THE DRIER AIR BELOW. HOW LONG IT TAKES TO SATURATE LOWER
LEVELS IS A SIGNIFICANT QUESTION...THOUGH MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS DO
ALLOW FOR MOST PRECIPITATION SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST MAINLY A
LITTLE AFTER 06Z FRIDAY WITH TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE 0.20" TO
0.40" RANGE. WE FEEL THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE THOUGH RETAINED OUR
NATIONAL GUIDANCE QPF CHARTS...WHILE CLIPPING PROJECTED SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS TO MOSTLY UNDER 4". THE AIRMASS BY EARLY
FRIDAY WILL BECOME VERY COLD...H850 MB TEMPERATURES PERHAPS AS LOW
AS -15 DEGREES CENTIGRADE...SO DRY SNOW RATIOS NEAR 17% SEEM
REASONABLE. ANYWAY...THIS CURRENTLY HAS THE APPEARANCE TO US OF A
ANOTHER ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. WE LOWERED TEMPERATURES ANOTHER
NOTCH OR TWO FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THIS IMPULSE WILL CLEAR TO THE EAST LATER FRIDAY WHILE LOWER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN COLD AND MOIST WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WHILE THE NEXT
LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE ALREADY WILL BE APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
COULD RENEW LIGHT SNOW CHANCES INTO EARLY SATURDAY. LARGE SCALE
FEATURES APPEAR IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR MID TO LATE WEEKEND WITH A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH CARVED OUT OVER THE SOUTHWEST THAT LIKELY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND WEAK IMPULSES OUR WAY THROUGH THE SUB-TROPICAL
FLOW. HARD TO DISCOUNT MODEL PRECIPITATION DEPICTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH LOWER LEVELS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODIFY AND BE
REPLACED BY AN AIRMASS WARM ENOUGH TO FAVOR MAINLY LIQUID. THIS
UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EJECT BY LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
FINALLY ALLOWING SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR TO MOVE BACK TO THE
SOUTH...WHILE NEXT VERSION OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
TAKING PLACE WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW CHANCES MID WEEK.

THIS IS ALL ABNORMALLY ACTIVE AND INCREASINGLY COMPLEX. WE HAVE
NECESSARILY ATTEMPTED TO PUT HIGHEST RESOLUTION IN THE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY FEATURES...AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT MORE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
BEYOND FRIDAY THAN ARE CURRENTLY INDICATED. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  20  54  25 /  10  10   0  40
TULIA         43  21  55  26 /   0  10   0  30
PLAINVIEW     44  23  58  28 /   0  10   0  30
LEVELLAND     45  24  61  29 /   0  10   0  20
LUBBOCK       47  25  61  29 /   0  10   0  20
DENVER CITY   45  27  61  30 /   0  20   0  10
BROWNFIELD    43  27  60  30 /   0  10   0  20
CHILDRESS     49  26  58  29 /   0  10   0  20
SPUR          45  27  60  31 /   0  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     42  30  58  32 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
455
FXUS64 KLUB 242347
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
547 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. PRECIPITATION AND SUB-VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF ALL THREE TAF SITES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BULK OF ENERGY ALOFT. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE WATCHING THE
NORTHERN EXTENSION OF LOW CLOUDS IN PROXIMITY TO KLBB.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BACK TOWARD THE WEST/NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHILE INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS A FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS PROGGED TO
MOVE EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SPLITTING SOME OF THE ENERGY IN THAT LOW...INITIALLY BY
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW CLOSED FEATURE OVER NRN NEW MEXICO WHILE
BULK OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG VORT MAX IN THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND A 130-PLUS KT JET AT 250 MB MOVES FROM SRN NEW
MEXICO ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS LATTER STRONGER
FEATURE WILL FOCUS PRECIPITATION FROM THE SACRAMENTO...GUADALUPE AND
DAVIS RANGES EWD THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SRN BIG COUNTRY...
POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE EXTREME SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA...IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST. FURTHER NORTH UNDERNEATH
THE NEWLY- DEVELOPED NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE LOW...SOME MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE PRESENT WITH THE COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT...BUT MINIMIZED GIVEN NOCTURNAL TIMING. ANY PRECIP THAT IS
GENERATED WILL HAVE TO WORK THROUGH DRY SUB-CLOUD AIR FURTHER
LIMITING SFC PRECIP POTENTIAL. COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES FURTHER
NORTH TOWARD THE SRN PANHANDLE... BUT EVEN THAT LOOKS SLIM. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT SLIGHT CHC POPS TO THE SRN EXTREMITY OF THE FCST
AREA ATTM.

CLEARING SKIES...MODEST WEST WINDS...AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PROGGED TO ARRIVE LATE IN
THE DAY...ALL POINT TO A NICE...ALBEIT BRIEF...WARMUP. 12Z NAM-BASED
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE COOLED DOWN QUITE A BIT FOR WEDNESDAYS HIGHS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS MAY BE RELATED IN PART TO PERCEIVED
OVERABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY STRATUS ACROSS THE
WRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH HALF OF THE DAY. PREFER WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE BASED ON GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF...AND NEAR
PREVIOUS FCST.

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED PERIODS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY ACTIVE WITH
A SERIES OF IMPULSES AND ANOTHER VERY COLD INTRUSION. THIS NEXT
PLUNGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE SPREADING IN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH MOST SOLUTIONS TRENDING A BIT FASTER AND COLDER. THERE
APPEARS TO BE SOME POSSIBILITY FOR LOW LEVEL SATURATION JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT PERHAPS LEADING TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH EARLY THURSDAY...BUT DRY AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD MINIMIZE CHANCES FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. A MOIST LAYER NEAR 700MB - 750MB LOOKS LIKE IT MAY
PERSIST ABOVE THE DRY LOWER LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF OR ALL DAY
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. MID AND UPPER FLOW
WILL BACK LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF ONE OF THE MODEST WAVES HELPING
TO CARVE OUT THE NEW WESTERN U.S. TROUGH...AND WILL EJECT OVER THE
AREA EARLY FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE 295K POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE LAYER NEAR 700 MB WITH
THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER AND SHOULD BEGIN PRECIPITATING
INTO THE DRIER AIR BELOW. HOW LONG IT TAKES TO SATURATE LOWER
LEVELS IS A SIGNIFICANT QUESTION...THOUGH MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS DO
ALLOW FOR MOST PRECIPITATION SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST MAINLY A
LITTLE AFTER 06Z FRIDAY WITH TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE 0.20" TO
0.40" RANGE. WE FEEL THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE THOUGH RETAINED OUR
NATIONAL GUIDANCE QPF CHARTS...WHILE CLIPPING PROJECTED SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS TO MOSTLY UNDER 4". THE AIRMASS BY EARLY
FRIDAY WILL BECOME VERY COLD...H850 MB TEMPERATURES PERHAPS AS LOW
AS -15 DEGREES CENTIGRADE...SO DRY SNOW RATIOS NEAR 17% SEEM
REASONABLE. ANYWAY...THIS CURRENTLY HAS THE APPEARANCE TO US OF A
ANOTHER ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. WE LOWERED TEMPERATURES ANOTHER
NOTCH OR TWO FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THIS IMPULSE WILL CLEAR TO THE EAST LATER FRIDAY WHILE LOWER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN COLD AND MOIST WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WHILE THE NEXT
LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE ALREADY WILL BE APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
COULD RENEW LIGHT SNOW CHANCES INTO EARLY SATURDAY. LARGE SCALE
FEATURES APPEAR IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR MID TO LATE WEEKEND WITH A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH CARVED OUT OVER THE SOUTHWEST THAT LIKELY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND WEAK IMPULSES OUR WAY THROUGH THE SUB-TROPICAL
FLOW. HARD TO DISCOUNT MODEL PRECIPITATION DEPICTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH LOWER LEVELS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODIFY AND BE
REPLACED BY AN AIRMASS WARM ENOUGH TO FAVOR MAINLY LIQUID. THIS
UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EJECT BY LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
FINALLY ALLOWING SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR TO MOVE BACK TO THE
SOUTH...WHILE NEXT VERSION OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
TAKING PLACE WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW CHANCES MID WEEK.

THIS IS ALL ABNORMALLY ACTIVE AND INCREASINGLY COMPLEX. WE HAVE
NECESSARILY ATTEMPTED TO PUT HIGHEST RESOLUTION IN THE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY FEATURES...AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT MORE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
BEYOND FRIDAY THAN ARE CURRENTLY INDICATED. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        20  54  25  25 /  10   0  40  30
TULIA         21  55  26  27 /  10   0  30  20
PLAINVIEW     23  58  28  30 /  10   0  30  20
LEVELLAND     24  61  29  32 /  10   0  20  20
LUBBOCK       25  61  29  32 /  10   0  20  20
DENVER CITY   27  61  30  33 /  20   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    27  60  30  33 /  10   0  20  20
CHILDRESS     26  58  29  32 /  10   0  20  10
SPUR          27  60  31  35 /  10   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     30  58  32  36 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
772
FXUS64 KLUB 242120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
320 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS PROGGED TO
MOVE EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SPLITTING SOME OF THE ENERGY IN THAT LOW...INITIALLY BY
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW CLOSED FEATURE OVER NRN NEW MEXICO WHILE
BULK OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG VORT MAX IN THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND A 130-PLUS KT JET AT 250 MB MOVES FROM SRN NEW
MEXICO ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS LATTER STRONGER
FEATURE WILL FOCUS PRECIPITATION FROM THE SACRAMENTO...GUADALUPE AND
DAVIS RANGES EWD THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SRN BIG COUNTRY...
POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE EXTREME SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA...IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST. FURTHER NORTH UNDERNEATH
THE NEWLY- DEVELOPED NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE LOW...SOME MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE PRESENT WITH THE COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT...BUT MINIMIZED GIVEN NOCTURNAL TIMING. ANY PRECIP THAT IS
GENERATED WILL HAVE TO WORK THROUGH DRY SUB-CLOUD AIR FURTHER
LIMITING SFC PRECIP POTENTIAL. COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES FURTHER
NORTH TOWARD THE SRN PANHANDLE... BUT EVEN THAT LOOKS SLIM. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT SLIGHT CHC POPS TO THE SRN EXTREMITY OF THE FCST
AREA ATTM.

CLEARING SKIES...MODEST WEST WINDS...AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PROGGED TO ARRIVE LATE IN
THE DAY...ALL POINT TO A NICE...ALBEIT BRIEF...WARMUP. 12Z NAM-BASED
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE COOLED DOWN QUITE A BIT FOR WEDNESDAYS HIGHS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS MAY BE RELATED IN PART TO PERCEIVED
OVERABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY STRATUS ACROSS THE
WRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH HALF OF THE DAY. PREFER WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE BASED ON GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF...AND NEAR
PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED PERIODS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY ACTIVE WITH
A SERIES OF IMPULSES AND ANOTHER VERY COLD INTRUSION. THIS NEXT
PLUNGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE SPREADING IN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH MOST SOLUTIONS TRENDING A BIT FASTER AND COLDER. THERE
APPEARS TO BE SOME POSSIBILITY FOR LOW LEVEL SATURATION JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT PERHAPS LEADING TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH EARLY THURSDAY...BUT DRY AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD MINIMIMIZE CHANCES FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. A MOIST LAYER NEAR 700MB - 750MB LOOKS LIKE IT MAY
PERSIST ABOVE THE DRY LOWER LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF OR ALL DAY
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. MID AND UPPER FLOW
WILL BACK LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF ONE OF THE MODEST WAVES HELPING
TO CARVE OUT THE NEW WESTERN U.S. TROUGH...AND WILL EJECT OVER THE
AREA EARLY FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE 295K POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE LAYER NEAR 700 MB WITH
THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER AND SHOULD BEGIN PRECIPITATING
INTO THE DRIER AIR BELOW. HOW LONG IT TAKES TO SATURATE LOWER
LEVELS IS A SIGNIFICANT QUESTION...THOUGH MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS
DO ALLOW FOR MOST PRECIPITATION SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST MAINLY
A LITTLE AFTER 06Z FRIDAY WITH TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE 0.20" TO
0.40" RANGE. WE FEEL THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE THOUGH RETAINED OUR
NATIONAL GUIDANCE QPF CHARTS...WHILE CLIPPING PROJECTED SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS TO MOSTLY UNDER 4". THE AIRMASS BY EARLY
FRIDAY WILL BECOME VERY COLD...H850 MB TEMPERATURES PERHAPS AS LOW
AS -15 DEGREES CENTIGRADE...SO DRY SNOW RATIOS NEAR 17% SEEM
REASONABLE. ANYWAY...THIS CURRENTLY HAS THE APPEARANCE TO US OF A
ANOTHER ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. WE LOWERED TEMPERATURES ANOTHER
NOTCH OR TWO FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THIS IMPULSE WILL CLEAR TO THE EAST LATER FRIDAY WHILE LOWER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN COLD AND MOIST WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WHILE THE NEXT
LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE ALREADY WILL BE APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
COULD RENEW LIGHT SNOW CHANCES INTO EARLY SATURDAY. LARGE SCALE
FEATURES APPEAR IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR MID TO LATE WEEKEND WITH A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH CARVED OUT OVER THE SOUTHWEST THAT LIKELY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND WEAK IMPULSES OUR WAY THROUGH THE SUB-TROPICAL
FLOW. HARD TO DISCOUNT MODEL PRECIPITATION DEPICTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH LOWER LEVELS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODIFY AND BE
REPLACED BY AN AIRMASS WARM ENOUGH TO FAVOR MAINLY LIQUID. THIS
UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EJECT BY LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
FINALLY ALLOWING SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR TO MOVE BACK TO THE
SOUTH...WHILE NEXT VERSION OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
TAKING PLACE WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW CHANCES MID WEEK.

THIS IS ALL ABNORMALLY ACTIVE AND INCREASINGLY COMPLEX. WE HAVE
NECESSARILY ATTEMPTED TO PUT HIGHEST RESOLUTION IN THE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY FEATURES...AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT MORE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
BEYOND FRIDAY THAN ARE CURRENTLY INDICATED. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        20  54  25  25 /  10   0  40  30
TULIA         21  55  26  27 /  10   0  30  20
PLAINVIEW     23  58  28  30 /  10   0  30  20
LEVELLAND     24  61  29  32 /  10   0  20  20
LUBBOCK       25  61  29  32 /  10   0  20  20
DENVER CITY   27  61  30  33 /  20   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    27  60  30  33 /  10   0  20  20
CHILDRESS     26  58  29  32 /  10   0  20  10
SPUR          27  60  31  35 /  10   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     30  58  32  36 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/05
843
FXUS64 KLUB 241730
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LOW OVER AZ LATE THIS MORNING WILL EJECT EWD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS REGION TONIGHT. FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL BE
TO THE SOUTH AND SE OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR STRONG
UPPER JET STREAK EJECTING AHEAD OF THE LOW...IE PRECIP SHOULD STAY
TO THE SOUTH AND SE OF ALL THREE TERMINALS. ONLY EFFECT AT EACH
SITE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER BY EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

AVIATION...
LOW CEILINGS ARE CLEARING OUT ACROSS THE AREA AND WE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME
PATCHY LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS MORNING...AND THERE
IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY WED MORNING. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY TODAY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 12 KTS. MID-LVL CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CROSSES
OVERHEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS AND JUST A HINT OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAVE KEPT
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA A FAIRLY CONSTANT LOW 20S OVERNIGHT...IN FACT
THE CURRENT TEMP OF 23F AT LUBBOCK IS A DEGREE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY/S HIGH! THERE IS ALSO SOME VERY LIGHT FOG REPORTED ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR CONCERNS WITH
LOW VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEST TO
EAST BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NM AND WEST
TEXAS...CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
NOSING INTO SW NM. FARTHER WEST...AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER
UTAH AND NRN AZ. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD TODAY AND PASS
OVER WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING. PRIOR TO IT/S APPROACH...WE SHOULD
SEE PARTIAL CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S TODAY.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE THIS
EVENING. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING THAT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
PASSES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS A PERIOD OF MODERATE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT. THERE ARE SOME QUESTION REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THE LIFT...THE NAM INDICATES A CONSOLIDATED LOW WITH
STRONG LIFT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
SUGGEST THE LOW WILL BE SPLIT INTO TWO CORES...DIFFUSING THE LIFT
AND GIVING THE SRN LOBE A BETTER MOISTURE FETCH. IN THIS CASE...WE
THINK THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SRN-MOST
COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...IN THE VICINITY
OF THE 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. A SEPARATE AREA OF SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE FOUND UNDERNEATH THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW MOVING
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NM INTO EASTERN NM IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN
PERHAPS ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE IN THE EVENING. WE ARE
UNCERTAIN IF THESE SHOWERS WILL SURVIVE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND WILL KEEP POP MENTION OUT OF THE NRN ZONES FOR
NOW. BACK TO THE SOUTH...IT APPEARS TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL THEN COOL
QUICKLY/EFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT. A
WARM NOSE IN THE SOUNDINGS COULD SUPPORT SOME FREEZING RAIN AS
WELL. THE FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILE NEVER SHOWS DEEP
SATURATION...AND WE EXPECT PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY
LIGHT...ALTHOUGH ME MAY HAVE TO WATCH THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS AT
THIS TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADVISORIES...BUT SOME ROADS COULD
BECOME SLICK OVERNIGHT ACROSS THOSE AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 20S...LIKELY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM...
PLENTY TO CONSIDER IN THE EXTENDED WITH RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION...A COUPLE MORE INTRUSIONS OF COLD AIR...AND THE
PROSPECTS FOR MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

EARLY ON...THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION SHOULD ENJOY ONE RELATIVELY WARM
DAY BEHIND TONIGHT/S DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING
BREEZES AND PLENTY OF INSOLATION SHOULD HELP LIFT TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS
WARM UP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING
DOWN THE ROCKIES WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING IN AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THE INITIAL UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING THE
RISK FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNTS AND
EASTWARD COVERAGE. ATTM WE ARE ONLY ADVERTISING A DUSTING OF SNOW
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AFTER THE RELATIVELY WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO THE 40 DEGREE MARK...WITH
LOCATIONS AROUND FRIONA ONLY TOPPING OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK.
THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES BY EARLY FRIDAY WILL DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY LIKELY LINGER IN
THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS. IN ADDITION...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY FRIDAY AND PASS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WAVE WILL
INITIALLY BE BATTLING THE DRY LOW-LEVELS...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME IT...WITH THE LATEST NWP SUGGESTING ABOUT ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF LIQUID BEING SQUEEZED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. GIVEN THE COLD
TEMPERATURES...THIS COULD SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY.

A LARGE UPPER LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...QUICKLY TRANSITIONING US TO A
PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW OVERRUNNING THE COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE COULD KEEP LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE COLD AIR FINALLY
ERODES AND TEMPERATURES WARM MORE SIGNIFICANTLY TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND. THIS WARM UP TOO MAY BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...THOUGH IT SHOULD NOT
PROVIDE AS BIG OF A CHILL AS THE PRIOR FRONT. IN ADDITION...WHAT
REMAINS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN LOW IS PROGGED TO BEGIN APPROACHING...
PROVIDING RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  21  52  23 /  10  10   0  30
TULIA         43  22  54  25 /   0  10   0  20
PLAINVIEW     44  24  57  27 /   0  10   0  20
LEVELLAND     44  26  62  29 /   0  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       44  26  63  29 /   0  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   43  27  62  30 /   0  20   0  10
BROWNFIELD    43  27  63  30 /   0  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     45  27  57  27 /   0  10   0  10
SPUR          44  27  63  29 /   0  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     43  29  62  31 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
725
FXUS64 KLUB 241141
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
541 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW CEILINGS ARE CLEARING OUT ACROSS THE AREA AND WE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME
PATCHY LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS MORNING...AND THERE
IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY WED MORNING. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY TODAY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 12 KTS. MID-LVL CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CROSSES
OVERHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS AND JUST A HINT OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAVE KEPT
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA A FAIRLY CONSTANT LOW 20S OVERNIGHT...IN FACT
THE CURRENT TEMP OF 23F AT LUBBOCK IS A DEGREE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY/S HIGH! THERE IS ALSO SOME VERY LIGHT FOG REPORTED ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR CONCERNS WITH
LOW VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEST TO
EAST BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NM AND WEST
TEXAS...CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
NOSING INTO SW NM. FARTHER WEST...AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER
UTAH AND NRN AZ. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD TODAY AND PASS
OVER WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING. PRIOR TO IT/S APPROACH...WE SHOULD
SEE PARTIAL CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S TODAY.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE THIS
EVENING. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING THAT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
PASSES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS A PERIOD OF MODERATE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT. THERE ARE SOME QUESTION REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THE LIFT...THE NAM INDICATES A CONSOLIDATED LOW WITH
STRONG LIFT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
SUGGEST THE LOW WILL BE SPLIT INTO TWO CORES...DIFFUSING THE LIFT
AND GIVING THE SRN LOBE A BETTER MOISTURE FETCH. IN THIS CASE...WE
THINK THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SRN-MOST
COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...IN THE VICINITY
OF THE 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. A SEPARATE AREA OF SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE FOUND UNDERNEATH THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW MOVING
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NM INTO EASTERN NM IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN
PERHAPS ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE IN THE EVENING. WE ARE
UNCERTAIN IF THESE SHOWERS WILL SURVIVE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND WILL KEEP POP MENTION OUT OF THE NRN ZONES FOR
NOW. BACK TO THE SOUTH...IT APPEARS TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL THEN COOL
QUICKLY/EFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT. A
WARM NOSE IN THE SOUNDINGS COULD SUPPORT SOME FREEZING RAIN AS
WELL. THE FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILE NEVER SHOWS DEEP
SATURATION...AND WE EXPECT PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY
LIGHT...ALTHOUGH ME MAY HAVE TO WATCH THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS AT
THIS TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADVISORIES...BUT SOME ROADS COULD
BECOME SLICK OVERNIGHT ACROSS THOSE AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 20S...LIKELY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM...
PLENTY TO CONSIDER IN THE EXTENDED WITH RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION...A COUPLE MORE INTRUSIONS OF COLD AIR...AND THE
PROSPECTS FOR MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

EARLY ON...THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION SHOULD ENJOY ONE RELATIVELY WARM
DAY BEHIND TONIGHT/S DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING
BREEZES AND PLENTY OF INSOLATION SHOULD HELP LIFT TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS
WARM UP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING
DOWN THE ROCKIES WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING IN AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THE INITIAL UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING THE
RISK FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNTS AND
EASTWARD COVERAGE. ATTM WE ARE ONLY ADVERTISING A DUSTING OF SNOW
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AFTER THE RELATIVELY WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO THE 40 DEGREE MARK...WITH
LOCATIONS AROUND FRIONA ONLY TOPPING OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK.
THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES BY EARLY FRIDAY WILL DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY LIKELY LINGER IN
THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS. IN ADDITION...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY FRIDAY AND PASS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WAVE WILL
INITIALLY BE BATTLING THE DRY LOW-LEVELS...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME IT...WITH THE LATEST NWP SUGGESTING ABOUT ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF LIQUID BEING SQUEEZED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. GIVEN THE COLD
TEMPERATURES...THIS COULD SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY.

A LARGE UPPER LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...QUICKLY TRANSITIONING US TO A
PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW OVERRUNNING THE COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE COULD KEEP LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE COLD AIR FINALLY
ERODES AND TEMPERATURES WARM MORE SIGNIFICANTLY TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND. THIS WARM UP TOO MAY BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...THOUGH IT SHOULD NOT
PROVIDE AS BIG OF A CHILL AS THE PRIOR FRONT. IN ADDITION...WHAT
REMAINS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN LOW IS PROGGED TO BEGIN APPROACHING...
PROVIDING RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  21  52  23 /  10  10   0  30
TULIA         43  22  54  25 /   0  10   0  20
PLAINVIEW     44  24  57  27 /   0  10   0  20
LEVELLAND     44  26  62  29 /   0  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       44  26  63  29 /   0  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   43  27  62  30 /   0  20   0  10
BROWNFIELD    43  27  63  30 /   0  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     45  27  57  27 /   0  10   0  10
SPUR          44  27  63  29 /   0  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     43  29  62  31 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
801
FXUS64 KLUB 241006
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
406 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS AND JUST A HINT OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAVE KEPT
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA A FAIRLY CONSTANT LOW 20S OVERNIGHT...IN FACT
THE CURRENT TEMP OF 23F AT LUBBOCK IS A DEGREE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY/S HIGH! THERE IS ALSO SOME VERY LIGHT FOG REPORTED ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR CONCERNS WITH
LOW VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEST TO
EAST BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NM AND WEST
TEXAS...CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
NOSING INTO SW NM. FARTHER WEST...AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER
UTAH AND NRN AZ. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD TODAY AND PASS
OVER WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING. PRIOR TO IT/S APPROACH...WE SHOULD
SEE PARTIAL CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S TODAY.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE THIS
EVENING. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING THAT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
PASSES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS A PERIOD OF MODERATE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT. THERE ARE SOME QUESTION REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THE LIFT...THE NAM INDICATES A CONSOLIDATED LOW WITH
STRONG LIFT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
SUGGEST THE LOW WILL BE SPLIT INTO TWO CORES...DIFFUSING THE LIFT
AND GIVING THE SRN LOBE A BETTER MOISTURE FETCH. IN THIS CASE...WE
THINK THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SRN-MOST
COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...IN THE VICINITY
OF THE 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. A SEPARATE AREA OF SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE FOUND UNDERNEATH THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW MOVING
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NM INTO EASTERN NM IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN
PERHAPS ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE IN THE EVENING. WE ARE
UNCERTAIN IF THESE SHOWERS WILL SURVIVE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND WILL KEEP POP MENTION OUT OF THE NRN ZONES FOR
NOW. BACK TO THE SOUTH...IT APPEARS TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL THEN COOL
QUICKLY/EFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT. A
WARM NOSE IN THE SOUNDINGS COULD SUPPORT SOME FREEZING RAIN AS
WELL. THE FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILE NEVER SHOWS DEEP
SATURATION...AND WE EXPECT PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY
LIGHT...ALTHOUGH ME MAY HAVE TO WATCH THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS AT
THIS TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADVISORIES...BUT SOME ROADS COULD
BECOME SLICK OVERNIGHT ACROSS THOSE AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 20S...LIKELY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...
PLENTY TO CONSIDER IN THE EXTENDED WITH RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION...A COUPLE MORE INTRUSIONS OF COLD AIR...AND THE
PROSPECTS FOR MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

EARLY ON...THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION SHOULD ENJOY ONE RELATIVELY WARM
DAY BEHIND TONIGHT/S DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING
BREEZES AND PLENTY OF INSOLATION SHOULD HELP LIFT TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS
WARM UP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING
DOWN THE ROCKIES WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING IN AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THE INITIAL UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING THE
RISK FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNTS AND
EASTWARD COVERAGE. ATTM WE ARE ONLY ADVERTISING A DUSTING OF SNOW
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AFTER THE RELATIVELY WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO THE 40 DEGREE MARK...WITH
LOCATIONS AROUND FRIONA ONLY TOPPING OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK.
THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES BY EARLY FRIDAY WILL DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY LIKELY LINGER IN
THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS. IN ADDITION...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY FRIDAY AND PASS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WAVE WILL
INITIALLY BE BATTLING THE DRY LOW-LEVELS...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME IT...WITH THE LATEST NWP SUGGESTING ABOUT ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF LIQUID BEING SQUEEZED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. GIVEN THE COLD
TEMPERATURES...THIS COULD SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY.

A LARGE UPPER LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...QUICKLY TRANSITIONING US TO A
PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW OVERRUNNING THE COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE COULD KEEP LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE COLD AIR FINALLY
ERODES AND TEMPERATURES WARM MORE SIGNIFICANTLY TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND. THIS WARM UP TOO MAY BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...THOUGH IT SHOULD NOT
PROVIDE AS BIG OF A CHILL AS THE PRIOR FRONT. IN ADDITION...WHAT
REMAINS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN LOW IS PROGGED TO BEGIN APPROACHING...
PROVIDING RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  21  52  23 /  10  10   0  30
TULIA         43  22  54  25 /   0  10   0  20
PLAINVIEW     44  24  57  27 /   0  10   0  20
LEVELLAND     44  26  62  29 /   0  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       44  26  63  29 /   0  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   43  27  62  30 /   0  20   0  10
BROWNFIELD    43  27  63  30 /   0  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     45  27  57  27 /   0  10   0  10
SPUR          44  27  63  29 /   0  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     43  29  62  31 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/23
478
FXUS64 KLUB 240543
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1143 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS AT LBB AND PVW MAY TEMPORARILY RISE TO MVFR IN THE HOURS
AHEAD BEFORE CLEARING OUT AND GOING VFR BY 12Z...PERHAPS A BIT
SOONER. MVFR CIGS AT CDS MEANWHILE LOOK TO HOLD AT THESE LEVELS
UNTIL VFR BY 12Z AS WELL. AN OUTSIDE THREAT EXISTS FOR SOME FOG
AFTER THESE CIGS CLEAR...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR THIS AND
ADD MENTION IF CONFIDENCE GROWS. CALM WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT
W-NW BY DAYBREAK.

&&

PREV FORECAST DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND SHORT WAVE EDGING TO THE EAST. UPPER HEIGHT RISES WILL FOLLOW
LEADING TO A MODERATE AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATING THROUGH
EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SAN
JOAQUINVALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL PULL EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ARE ON TAP...THOUGH WE MAY
NOT WARM AS FAST AS DESIRED.

LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THIS EVENING WITH A DIMINISHING TREND
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. THERE IS SOME RISK THESE LOW CLOUDS COULD
THICKEN DURING THE EVENING BUT WE ARE NOT SEEING STRONG SIGNALS FOR
FOG AT LEAST. AND MODEST MID LEVEL DRYING WILL OCCUR SO THAT THE
STREAKS OF MID CLOUDS EMERGING THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES SHOULD END THIS EVENING. BUT AT LEAST SOME HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN ADVANCE OF THAT APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE BULK
OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SPAN TO OUR EAST...BUT WE
ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ONTO WESTERN EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS
ROLLING PLAINS AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. A MUCH MILDER DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...INTO THE 40S...BUT HARD TO JUSTIFY CLIMBING MUCH ABOVE
THAT RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR
EAST AND PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDS. TONIGHT MEANWHILE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN COLD...BUT NOT TOO MUCH COLDER THAN OUR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF SE NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. LOCATIONS WHERE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO HOLD OFF ANY FROZEN
PRECIP BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF A WINTRY MIX CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ENTIRELY.

RIDGING BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL DRY US OUT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
GUIDANCE TRENDING WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
USHERING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT
RUNS FROM THE END OF THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL AVG 15-20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW SETS UP THURSDAY AND IS PERSISTENT THROUGH
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIGS ACROSS
THE WEST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS GENERAL MODEL
AGREEMENT IN THIS PATTERN UNTIL SUNDAY AND WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH DIURNAL TEMP CHANGES DICTATING PRECIP
TYPE...WHEN THE ECMWF PLUNGES MORE COLD AIR ACROSS WEST
TEXAS...WHILE THE GFS EJECTS A WAVE WELL TO THE NORTH KEEPING US
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH AND WARMER
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WENT WITH THE SUPER BLEND THAT HAS US MUCH TOO WARM
AND ANY PRECIP SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WOULD BE
RAIN.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
289
FXUS64 KLUB 232326
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS EVENING
OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE WEST THUS
FILTERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. OCCASIONAL -SN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING THOUGH THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST AT KCDS. THE TIMING OF MVFR-TO-VFR TRANSITION
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THERE IS ABOUT A 20-40 PCT CHANCE OF
CEILING DIMINISHING TO IFR THIS EVENING PARTICULARLY AT KCDS.
EXPECT IN-CLOUD ICING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND SHORT WAVE EDGING TO THE EAST. UPPER HEIGHT RISES WILL FOLLOW
LEADING TO A MODERATE AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATING THROUGH
EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SAN JOAQUINVALLEY
AT THIS TIME WILL PULL EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE
TUESDAY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ARE ON TAP...THOUGH WE MAY
NOT WARM AS FAST AS DESIRED.

LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THIS EVENING WITH A DIMINISHING TREND
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. THERE IS SOME RISK THESE LOW CLOUDS COULD
THICKEN DURING THE EVENING BUT WE ARE NOT SEEING STRONG SIGNALS FOR
FOG AT LEAST. AND MODEST MID LEVEL DRYING WILL OCCUR SO THAT THE
STREAKS OF MID CLOUDS EMERGING THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES SHOULD END THIS EVENING. BUT AT LEAST SOME HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN ADVANCE OF THAT APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE BULK
OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SPAN TO OUR EAST...BUT WE
ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ONTO WESTERN EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS
ROLLING PLAINS AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. A MUCH MILDER DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...INTO THE 40S...BUT HARD TO JUSTIFY CLIMBING MUCH ABOVE
THAT RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR
EAST AND PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDS. TONIGHT MEANWHILE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN COLD...BUT NOT TOO MUCH COLDER THAN OUR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF SE NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. LOCATIONS WHERE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO HOLD OFF ANY FROZEN
PRECIP BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF A WINTRY MIX CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ENTIRELY.

RIDGING BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL DRY US OUT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
GUIDANCE TRENDING WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
USHERING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT
RUNS FROM THE END OF THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL AVG 15-20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW SETS UP THURSDAY AND IS PERSISTENT THROUGH
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIGS ACROSS
THE WEST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS GENERAL MODEL
AGREEMENT IN THIS PATTERN UNTIL SUNDAY AND WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH DIURNAL TEMP CHANGES DICTATING PRECIP
TYPE...WHEN THE ECMWF PLUNGES MORE COLD AIR ACROSS WEST
TEXAS...WHILE THE GFS EJECTS A WAVE WELL TO THE NORTH KEEPING US
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH AND WARMER
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WENT WITH THE SUPER BLEND THAT HAS US MUCH TOO WARM
AND ANY PRECIP SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WOULD BE
RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        16  40  21  53 /   0  10  10   0
TULIA         16  42  23  55 /   0  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     18  43  26  58 /   0  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     18  44  28  61 /   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       17  44  28  61 /   0  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   19  43  29  61 /   0  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    19  44  29  61 /   0  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     19  43  28  56 /  10  10  10   0
SPUR          19  44  29  61 /  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     20  43  31  59 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
104
FXUS64 KLUB 232155
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
355 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND SHORT WAVE EDGING TO THE EAST. UPPER HEIGHT RISES WILL FOLLOW
LEADING TO A MODERATE AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATING THROUGH
EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SAN JUAQUIN
VALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL PULL EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE
TUESDAY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ARE ON TAP...THOUGH WE MAY
NOT WARM AS FAST AS DESIRED.

LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THIS EVENING WITH A DIMINISHING TREND
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. THERE IS SOME RISK THESE LOW CLOUDS COULD
THICKEN DURING THE EVENING BUT WE ARE NOT SEEING STRONG SIGNALS FOR
FOG AT LEAST. AND MODEST MID LEVEL DRYING WILL OCCUR SO THAT THE
STREAKS OF MID CLOUDS EMERGING THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES SHOULD END THIS EVENING. BUT AT LEAST SOME HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN ADVANCE OF THAT APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE BULK
OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SPAN TO OUR EAST...BUT WE
ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ONTO WESTERN EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS
ROLLING PLAINS AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. A MUCH MILDER DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...INTO THE 40S...BUT HARD TO JUSTIFY CLIMBING MUCH ABOVE
THAT RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR
EAST AND PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDS. TONIGHT MEANWHILE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN COLD...BUT NOT TOO MUCH COLDER THAN OUR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF SE NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. LOCATIONS WHERE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO HOLD OFF ANY FROZEN
PRECIP BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF A WINTRY MIX CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ENTIRELY.

RIDGING BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL DRY US OUT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
GUIDANCE TRENDING WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
USHERING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT
RUNS FROM THE END OF THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL AVG 15-20 DEGRESS
COOLER THAN NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW SETS UP THURSDAY AND IS PERSISTENT THROUGH
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIGS ACROSS
THE WEST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS GENERAL MODEL
AGREEMENT IN THIS PATTERN UNTIL SUNDAY AND WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH DIURNAL TEMP CHANGES DICTATING PRECIP
TYPE...WHEN THE ECMWF PLUNGES MORE COLD AIR ACROSS WEST
TEXAS...WHILE THE GFS EJECTS A WAVE WELL TO THE NORTH KEEPING US
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH AND WARMER
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WENT WITH THE SUPER BLEND THAT HAS US MUCH TOO WARM
AND ANY PRECIP SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WOULD BE
RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        16  40  21  53 /   0  10  10   0
TULIA         16  42  23  55 /   0  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     18  43  26  58 /   0  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     18  44  28  61 /   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       17  44  28  61 /   0  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   19  43  29  61 /   0  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    19  44  29  61 /   0  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     19  43  28  56 /  10  10  10   0
SPUR          19  44  29  61 /  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     20  43  31  59 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/55
095
FXUS64 KLUB 231817
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1217 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...
A SNOW BAND CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND BRUSHING ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES AT MIDDAY IS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN
IMPULSE PASSING OVER THE AREA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW SLOW WEAKENING OF
THIS BAND IN THE PAST TWO HOURS. NOT NECESSARILY A CLEAN BREAK IN
LIFT AND PRECIPITATION HOWEVER AS MORE SHOWERY LOOKING ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO GENERATE OVER WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHILE VERY SHALLOW
BANDING SLOWLY WANES. ANYWAY...WE THINK WE WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BUT LIKELIHOOD OF
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT TOTALS IS DECREASING. WE HAVE ALLOWED THE
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT NOON. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY SLOW IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LIGHT SNOW SLOWLY TAPERS OFF
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND CEILINGS LIFT JUST A BIT. SOLUTIONS
AGREE...HOWEVER...THAT A LOWER CEILING IS LIKELY TO REFORM DURING
THE EVENING AT TAF SITES. A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION REMAINS WITHIN
REALM OF POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT MAINLY KPVW AND KLBB BUT STILL
CANNOT NAIL DOWN A MORE FAVORED TIME-FRAME. SO...GENERALLY
FAVORING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015/

AVIATION...
LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WERE IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. THE
SNOW COULD ALSO MIX WITH SLEET...PARTICULARLY AT KLBB AND
KCDS...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
MVFR RANGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH THEY COULD DIP
INTO IFR TERRITORY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
.WINTRY WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN BY THIS AFTERNOON...

COLD AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE TEENS AS OF 09Z. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WAS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...IT DID FALL IN THE FORM OF FZDZ...SLEET AND EVEN A
LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES...AND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW FREEZING...THIS HAS CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE SEEN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
STRENGTHEN RECENTLY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE...AND THIS
HAS HELPED SPUR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. A
CALL TO DICKENS REVEALED PRIMARILY SLEET FALLING IN ONE PASSING
SHOWER...WITH -FZDZ COMMON OUTSIDE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
WE HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS...SO BRIEF HEAVIER BURSTS OF FROZEN PRECIP ARE LIKELY. WE
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WANES LOCALLY. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION...ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL SWEEP NORTHEASTWARD AND COULD
ENHANCE THE SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NW/NC ZONES LATER THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS LIFT/PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT NWP SIGNALS ARE MIXED...WITH THE
BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE ACTIVITY WILL FADE AND/OR SHIFT
NORTH THE CWA BY AROUND MIDDAY. GIVEN THIS...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE
IF A PORTION OF IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED SLIGHTLY IN TIME.

REGARDING P-TYPE...THE COLD AIR IS DEEP ENOUGH THAT SNOW IS AND
SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY MODE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...AN ELEVATED WARM NOSE CENTERED
NEAR 700 MB IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ABOVE A DEEP AND COLD AIR MASS NEAR/AT
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD MAKE SLEET THE PRIMARY MODE...THOUGH IN
THE STRONGEST LIFT A SWITCH TO SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
WHERE LIFT IS WEAK...FZDZ WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WHERE THE SATURATED
PORTION OF THE COLUMN IS NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ICE
/GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF LUBBOCK/. REGARDING AMOUNTS...SLEET
TOTALS COULD APPROACH 1/2 INCH WHERE THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE BANDS
FALL OUT EAST...AND THE NORTHWEST ZONES COULD GET A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW...MAYBE A LITTLE MORE IN SPOTS IF AN ORGANIZED BAND DOES
SETUP. IN BETWEEN...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY
LIGHT...BUT THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT SERIOUS TRAVEL
IMPACTS. EVEN AFTER THE ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WANES THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD...WITH
HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
THUS...ROADWAYS /ESPECIALLY UNTREATED ONES/ WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN HAZARDOUS. TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
SETTLE BACK INTO THE TEENS...WITH ROADS NOT EXPECTED TO THAW OUT
UNTIL TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...
WE SHOULD START OUT TUESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
THIS ALONG WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR
THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL SWING ACROSS WTX LATE IN THE
DAY...COINCIDING WITH ANOTHER SWD PUSH OF COOL AIR. THE APPROACH
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL SEE A QUICK SHOT OF LIFT AND JUST ENOUGH
MID-LVL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...PRIMARILY TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES. THE UPPER LOW PASSES QUICKLY TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND
WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP INTO THE 50S
ACROSS THE AREA.

MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT FRONT
WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY...TRENDING A BIT FASTER IN THE LATEST
RUNS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE NATIONS/S MIDSECTION...WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING A MINOR
RIPPLE WHILE THE GFS SHOWS GREATER AMPLIFICATION AND LIFT. BLENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GIVE US LOW POPS ON THURSDAY...AROUND 20 TO
30 PERCENT...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY REMAINS
SOMEWHAT MUDDLED AS WELL. DURING THIS PERIOD A LARGE TROUGH SHOULD
DIG SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE ECMWF RETAINS CYCLONIC CURVATURE
OVER WTX AS A LEADING TROUGH CROSSES THE SRN ROCKIES. THE GFS IS
QUICKER TO TURN THE FLOW ALOFT FROM NWLY TO SWLY. IN EITHER
CASE...WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT QPF WRUNG OUT WHILE THE LOW-LVL
COLD AIR IS IN PLACE. BLENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS A CHANCE OF PRECIP
GOING MOST OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THIS IS ACCEPTED FOR NOW.
ALTHOUGH IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE ANY
PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...FORECAST TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING SUGGEST THAT FROZEN PRECIP/HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL BE A
CONCERN. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S...AND MAYBE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH. WE
SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK OUT OF THE COLD AIR LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS SW FLOW DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS. AS THE UPPER LOW EDGES
CLOSER TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK PRECIP CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        16  40  22  55 /  10  10  20  10
TULIA         16  40  23  55 /  10   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     18  41  25  57 /  10   0  20  10
LEVELLAND     18  43  28  60 /  10   0  20  10
LUBBOCK       17  43  28  60 /  10  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   19  41  29  61 /  10   0  20  10
BROWNFIELD    19  42  29  61 /  10   0  20  10
CHILDRESS     19  41  27  56 /  10   0  10  10
SPUR          19  42  28  58 /  10   0  20  10
ASPERMONT     20  41  29  57 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99/05
509
FXUS64 KLUB 231817
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1217 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...
A SNOW BAND CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND BRUSHING ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES AT MIDDAY IS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN
IMPULSE PASSING OVER THE AREA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW SLOW WEAKENING OF
THIS BAND IN THE PAST TWO HOURS. NOT NECESSARILY A CLEAN BREAK IN
LIFT AND PRECIPITATION HOWEVER AS MORE SHOWERY LOOKING ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO GENERATE OVER WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHILE VERY SHALLOW
BANDING SLOWLY WANES. ANYWAY...WE THINK WE WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BUT LIKELIHOOD OF
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT TOTALS IS DECREASING. WE HAVE ALLOWED THE
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT NOON. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY SLOW IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LIGHT SNOW SLOWLY TAPERS OFF
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND CEILINGS LIFT JUST A BIT. SOLUTIONS
AGREE...HOWEVER...THAT A LOWER CEILING IS LIKELY TO REFORM DURING
THE EVENING AT TAF SITES. A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION REMAINS WITHIN
REALM OF POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT MAINLY KPVW AND KLBB BUT STILL
CANNOT NAIL DOWN A MORE FAVORED TIME-FRAME. SO...GENERALLY
FAVORING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015/

AVIATION...
LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WERE IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. THE
SNOW COULD ALSO MIX WITH SLEET...PARTICULARLY AT KLBB AND
KCDS...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
MVFR RANGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH THEY COULD DIP
INTO IFR TERRITORY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
.WINTRY WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN BY THIS AFTERNOON...

COLD AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE TEENS AS OF 09Z. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WAS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...IT DID FALL IN THE FORM OF FZDZ...SLEET AND EVEN A
LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES...AND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW FREEZING...THIS HAS CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE SEEN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
STRENGTHEN RECENTLY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE...AND THIS
HAS HELPED SPUR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. A
CALL TO DICKENS REVEALED PRIMARILY SLEET FALLING IN ONE PASSING
SHOWER...WITH -FZDZ COMMON OUTSIDE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
WE HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS...SO BRIEF HEAVIER BURSTS OF FROZEN PRECIP ARE LIKELY. WE
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WANES LOCALLY. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION...ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL SWEEP NORTHEASTWARD AND COULD
ENHANCE THE SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NW/NC ZONES LATER THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS LIFT/PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT NWP SIGNALS ARE MIXED...WITH THE
BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE ACTIVITY WILL FADE AND/OR SHIFT
NORTH THE CWA BY AROUND MIDDAY. GIVEN THIS...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE
IF A PORTION OF IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED SLIGHTLY IN TIME.

REGARDING P-TYPE...THE COLD AIR IS DEEP ENOUGH THAT SNOW IS AND
SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY MODE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...AN ELEVATED WARM NOSE CENTERED
NEAR 700 MB IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ABOVE A DEEP AND COLD AIR MASS NEAR/AT
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD MAKE SLEET THE PRIMARY MODE...THOUGH IN
THE STRONGEST LIFT A SWITCH TO SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
WHERE LIFT IS WEAK...FZDZ WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WHERE THE SATURATED
PORTION OF THE COLUMN IS NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ICE
/GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF LUBBOCK/. REGARDING AMOUNTS...SLEET
TOTALS COULD APPROACH 1/2 INCH WHERE THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE BANDS
FALL OUT EAST...AND THE NORTHWEST ZONES COULD GET A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW...MAYBE A LITTLE MORE IN SPOTS IF AN ORGANIZED BAND DOES
SETUP. IN BETWEEN...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY
LIGHT...BUT THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT SERIOUS TRAVEL
IMPACTS. EVEN AFTER THE ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WANES THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD...WITH
HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
THUS...ROADWAYS /ESPECIALLY UNTREATED ONES/ WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN HAZARDOUS. TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
SETTLE BACK INTO THE TEENS...WITH ROADS NOT EXPECTED TO THAW OUT
UNTIL TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...
WE SHOULD START OUT TUESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
THIS ALONG WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR
THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL SWING ACROSS WTX LATE IN THE
DAY...COINCIDING WITH ANOTHER SWD PUSH OF COOL AIR. THE APPROACH
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL SEE A QUICK SHOT OF LIFT AND JUST ENOUGH
MID-LVL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...PRIMARILY TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES. THE UPPER LOW PASSES QUICKLY TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND
WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP INTO THE 50S
ACROSS THE AREA.

MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT FRONT
WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY...TRENDING A BIT FASTER IN THE LATEST
RUNS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE NATIONS/S MIDSECTION...WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING A MINOR
RIPPLE WHILE THE GFS SHOWS GREATER AMPLIFICATION AND LIFT. BLENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GIVE US LOW POPS ON THURSDAY...AROUND 20 TO
30 PERCENT...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY REMAINS
SOMEWHAT MUDDLED AS WELL. DURING THIS PERIOD A LARGE TROUGH SHOULD
DIG SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE ECMWF RETAINS CYCLONIC CURVATURE
OVER WTX AS A LEADING TROUGH CROSSES THE SRN ROCKIES. THE GFS IS
QUICKER TO TURN THE FLOW ALOFT FROM NWLY TO SWLY. IN EITHER
CASE...WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT QPF WRUNG OUT WHILE THE LOW-LVL
COLD AIR IS IN PLACE. BLENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS A CHANCE OF PRECIP
GOING MOST OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THIS IS ACCEPTED FOR NOW.
ALTHOUGH IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE ANY
PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...FORECAST TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING SUGGEST THAT FROZEN PRECIP/HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL BE A
CONCERN. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S...AND MAYBE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH. WE
SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK OUT OF THE COLD AIR LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS SW FLOW DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS. AS THE UPPER LOW EDGES
CLOSER TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK PRECIP CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        16  40  22  55 /  10  10  20  10
TULIA         16  40  23  55 /  10   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     18  41  25  57 /  10   0  20  10
LEVELLAND     18  43  28  60 /  10   0  20  10
LUBBOCK       17  43  28  60 /  10  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   19  41  29  61 /  10   0  20  10
BROWNFIELD    19  42  29  61 /  10   0  20  10
CHILDRESS     19  41  27  56 /  10   0  10  10
SPUR          19  42  28  58 /  10   0  20  10
ASPERMONT     20  41  29  57 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99/05
752
FXUS64 KLUB 231155
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
555 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WERE IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. THE
SNOW COULD ALSO MIX WITH SLEET...PARTICULARLY AT KLBB AND
KCDS...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
MVFR RANGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH THEY COULD DIP
INTO IFR TERRITORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
..WINTRY WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN BY THIS AFTERNOON...

COLD AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE TEENS AS OF 09Z. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WAS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...IT DID FALL IN THE FORM OF FZDZ...SLEET AND EVEN A
LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES...AND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW FREEZING...THIS HAS CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE SEEN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
STRENGTHEN RECENTLY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE...AND THIS
HAS HELPED SPUR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. A
CALL TO DICKENS REVEALED PRIMARILY SLEET FALLING IN ONE PASSING
SHOWER...WITH -FZDZ COMMON OUTSIDE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
WE HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS...SO BRIEF HEAVIER BURSTS OF FROZEN PRECIP ARE LIKELY. WE
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WANES LOCALLY. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION...ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL SWEEP NORTHEASTWARD AND COULD
ENHANCE THE SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NW/NC ZONES LATER THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS LIFT/PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT NWP SIGNALS ARE MIXED...WITH THE
BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE ACTIVITY WILL FADE AND/OR SHIFT
NORTH THE CWA BY AROUND MIDDAY. GIVEN THIS...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE
IF A PORTION OF IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED SLIGHTLY IN TIME.

REGARDING P-TYPE...THE COLD AIR IS DEEP ENOUGH THAT SNOW IS AND
SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY MODE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...AN ELEVATED WARM NOSE CENTERED
NEAR 700 MB IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ABOVE A DEEP AND COLD AIR MASS NEAR/AT
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD MAKE SLEET THE PRIMARY MODE...THOUGH IN
THE STRONGEST LIFT A SWITCH TO SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
WHERE LIFT IS WEAK...FZDZ WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WHERE THE SATURATED
PORTION OF THE COLUMN IS NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ICE
/GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF LUBBOCK/. REGARDING AMOUNTS...SLEET
TOTALS COULD APPROACH 1/2 INCH WHERE THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE BANDS
FALL OUT EAST...AND THE NORTHWEST ZONES COULD GET A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW...MAYBE A LITTLE MORE IN SPOTS IF AN ORGANIZED BAND DOES
SETUP. IN BETWEEN...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY
LIGHT...BUT THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT SERIOUS TRAVEL
IMPACTS. EVEN AFTER THE ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WANES THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD...WITH
HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
THUS...ROADWAYS /ESPECIALLY UNTREATED ONES/ WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN HAZARDOUS. TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
SETTLE BACK INTO THE TEENS...WITH ROADS NOT EXPECTED TO THAW OUT
UNTIL TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...
WE SHOULD START OUT TUESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
THIS ALONG WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR
THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL SWING ACROSS WTX LATE IN THE
DAY...COINCIDING WITH ANOTHER SWD PUSH OF COOL AIR. THE APPROACH
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL SEE A QUICK SHOT OF LIFT AND JUST ENOUGH
MID-LVL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...PRIMARILY TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES. THE UPPER LOW PASSES QUICKLY TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND
WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP INTO THE 50S
ACROSS THE AREA.

MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT FRONT
WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY...TRENDING A BIT FASTER IN THE LATEST
RUNS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE NATIONS/S MIDSECTION...WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING A MINOR
RIPPLE WHILE THE GFS SHOWS GREATER AMPLIFICATION AND LIFT. BLENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GIVE US LOW POPS ON THURSDAY...AROUND 20 TO
30 PERCENT...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY REMAINS
SOMEWHAT MUDDLED AS WELL. DURING THIS PERIOD A LARGE TROUGH SHOULD
DIG SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE ECMWF RETAINS CYCLONIC CURVATURE
OVER WTX AS A LEADING TROUGH CROSSES THE SRN ROCKIES. THE GFS IS
QUICKER TO TURN THE FLOW ALOFT FROM NWERLY TO SWERLY. IN EITHER
CASE...WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT QPF WRUNG OUT WHILE THE LOW-LVL COLD
AIR IS IN PLACE. BLENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS A CHANCE OF PRECIP GOING
MOST OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THIS IS ACCEPTED FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH
IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE ANY PRECIP
SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...FORECAST TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING SUGGEST THAT FROZEN PRECIP/HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL BE A
CONCERN. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S...AND MAYBE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH. WE
SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK OUT OF THE COLD AIR LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS SW FLOW DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS. AS THE UPPER LOW EDGES
CLOSER TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK PRECIP CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  16  40  22 /  70  10  10  20
TULIA         22  16  40  23 /  70  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     24  18  41  25 /  70  10   0  20
LEVELLAND     26  18  43  28 /  60  10   0  20
LUBBOCK       24  17  43  28 /  70  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   26  19  41  29 /  60  10   0  20
BROWNFIELD    26  19  42  29 /  60  10   0  20
CHILDRESS     23  19  41  27 /  80  10   0  10
SPUR          24  19  42  28 /  70  10   0  20
ASPERMONT     24  20  41  29 /  80  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

23/33/23
075
FXUS64 KLUB 231014
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
414 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...
...WINTRY WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN BY THIS AFTERNOON...

COLD AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE TEENS AS OF 09Z. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WAS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...IT DID FALL IN THE FORM OF FZDZ...SLEET AND EVEN A
LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES...AND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW FREEZING...THIS HAS CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE SEEN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
STRENGTHEN RECENTLY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE...AND THIS
HAS HELPED SPUR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. A
CALL TO DICKENS REVEALED PRIMARILY SLEET FALLING IN ONE PASSING
SHOWER...WITH -FZDZ COMMON OUTSIDE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
WE HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS...SO BRIEF HEAVIER BURSTS OF FROZEN PRECIP ARE LIKELY. WE
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WANES LOCALLY. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION...ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL SWEEP NORTHEASTWARD AND COULD
ENHANCE THE SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NW/NC ZONES LATER THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS LIFT/PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT NWP SIGNALS ARE MIXED...WITH THE
BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE ACTIVITY WILL FADE AND/OR SHIFT
NORTH THE CWA BY AROUND MIDDAY. GIVEN THIS...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE
IF A PORTION OF IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED SLIGHTLY IN TIME.

REGARDING P-TYPE...THE COLD AIR IS DEEP ENOUGH THAT SNOW IS AND
SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY MODE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...AN ELEVATED WARM NOSE CENTERED
NEAR 700 MB IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ABOVE A DEEP AND COLD AIR MASS NEAR/AT
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD MAKE SLEET THE PRIMARY MODE...THOUGH IN
THE STRONGEST LIFT A SWITCH TO SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
WHERE LIFT IS WEAK...FZDZ WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WHERE THE SATURATED
PORTION OF THE COLUMN IS NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ICE
/GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF LUBBOCK/. REGARDING AMOUNTS...SLEET
TOTALS COULD APPROACH 1/2 INCH WHERE THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE BANDS
FALL OUT EAST...AND THE NORTHWEST ZONES COULD GET A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW...MAYBE A LITTLE MORE IN SPOTS IF AN ORGANIZED BAND DOES
SETUP. IN BETWEEN...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY
LIGHT...BUT THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT SERIOUS TRAVEL
IMPACTS. EVEN AFTER THE ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WANES THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD...WITH
HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
THUS...ROADWAYS /ESPECIALLY UNTREATED ONES/ WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN HAZARDOUS. TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
SETTLE BACK INTO THE TEENS...WITH ROADS NOT EXPECTED TO THAW OUT
UNTIL TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
WE SHOULD START OUT TUESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
THIS ALONG WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR
THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL SWING ACROSS WTX LATE IN THE
DAY...COINCIDING WITH ANOTHER SWD PUSH OF COOL AIR. THE APPROACH
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL SEE A QUICK SHOT OF LIFT AND JUST ENOUGH
MID-LVL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...PRIMARILY TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES. THE UPPER LOW PASSES QUICKLY TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND
WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP INTO THE 50S
ACROSS THE AREA.

MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT FRONT
WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY...TRENDING A BIT FASTER IN THE LATEST
RUNS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE NATIONS/S MIDSECTION...WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING A MINOR
RIPPLE WHILE THE GFS SHOWS GREATER AMPLIFICATION AND LIFT. BLENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GIVE US LOW POPS ON THURSDAY...AROUND 20 TO
30 PERCENT...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY REMAINS
SOMEWHAT MUDDLED AS WELL. DURING THIS PERIOD A LARGE TROUGH SHOULD
DIG SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE ECMWF RETAINS CYCLONIC CURVATURE
OVER WTX AS A LEADING TROUGH CROSSES THE SRN ROCKIES. THE GFS IS
QUICKER TO TURN THE FLOW ALOFT FROM NWERLY TO SWERLY. IN EITHER
CASE...WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT QPF WRUNG OUT WHILE THE LOW-LVL COLD
AIR IS IN PLACE. BLENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS A CHANCE OF PRECIP GOING
MOST OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THIS IS ACCEPTED FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH
IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE ANY PRECIP
SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...FORECAST TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING SUGGEST THAT FROZEN PRECIP/HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL BE A
CONCERN. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S...AND MAYBE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH. WE
SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK OUT OF THE COLD AIR LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS SW FLOW DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS. AS THE UPPER LOW EDGES
CLOSER TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK PRECIP CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  16  40  22 /  70  10  10  20
TULIA         22  16  40  23 /  70  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     24  18  41  25 /  70  10   0  20
LEVELLAND     26  18  43  28 /  60  10   0  20
LUBBOCK       24  17  43  28 /  70  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   26  19  41  29 /  60  10   0  20
BROWNFIELD    26  19  42  29 /  60  10   0  20
CHILDRESS     23  19  41  27 /  80  10   0  10
SPUR          24  19  42  28 /  70  10   0  20
ASPERMONT     24  20  41  29 /  80  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

23/33
147
FXUS64 KLUB 230537 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1137 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.AVIATION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KPVW AND KLBB AND
MVFR AT KCDS. EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN IFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR AT KLBB AND KPVW WHILE KCDS MAY DROP DOWN INTO IFR EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. CONTINUED FREEZING DRIZZLE INTERMIXED WITH
PERIODS OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL STAY OVER KLBB AND KPVW WITH A
LATER ONSET AT KCDS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID-DAY
MONDAY RESULTING IN POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AN EVENTUAL TAPERING OFF OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF
CYCLE.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015/

AVIATION...
HEAVIER FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AND END AT THREE TAF
SITES WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. WILL OCCASIONALLY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AT ALL THE
TAF SITES BUT THESE WILL BE TOO FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO WARRANT
TEMPO GROUPS OR CHANGE PERIODS. EXPECT TO SEE A SECOND ROUND OF
HEAVIER FROZEN PRECIPITATION...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SLEET... IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. SLEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO OPTED TO GO WITH A LONG PREVAILING GROUP FOR SLEET OR
SLEET/SNOW MIX AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AS IT REMAINS TOO DIFFICULT
TO NARROW DOWN HOUR BY HOUR CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION INTENSITIES.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A 1050 MB SFC RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS AIDED IN
OOZING MUCH COLDER AIR TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN.
THIS IS EVIDENT IN TEMPS HAVING FELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WAS
DOWN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
WITH 20S ELSEWHERE PER 21Z METARS. SLIGHTLY BREEZY N-NE SFC WINDS
ENVELOPING THE REGION PROVIDES PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
COLD AIRMASS...THUS RESULTING IN THE NONE TO SURPRISING LOW
CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG BELOW 6 MILES FOR SOME LOCATIONS...AND LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL PHONE TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL
ACROSS THE REGION HAS RESULTED IN KNOWING THAT PRECIP TYPE HAS
RANGED FROM LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AND/OR SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NRN AND CNTRL SOUTH PLAINS...LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THIS MIXED BAG
OF PRECIP TYPES SUGGEST THAT THE WARM NOSE LOCATED BETWEEN 800MB-
700MB IS STILL PREVALENT. TEXAS TECH MESONET SITES AND CALLS TO
EMERGENCY PERSONNEL HAVE REPORTED THE WINTRY PRECIP TO BE RATHER
LIGHT...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. ASPHALT IS STILL A BIT
WARM DUE TO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH. HOWEVER...A
PUBLIC REPORT OF A THIN GLAZE OF ICE ACROSS A FEW OVERPASSES AND
BRIDGES WITHIN THE CITY OF LUBBOCK IMPLIES CAUTION SHOULD DEFINITELY
BE EXERCISED.

MODEL SOLUTIONS INCLUDING SOME HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT
AT A LULL IN ACTIVITY BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AS AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE
WITHIN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT /WHICH PROMPTED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS EARLIER THIS MORNING/ CONTINUED TO EXIT THE
REGION...THUS CAUSING FLEETING UL SUPPORT. WITH LOW LEVELS REMAINING
SATURATED AND COLD...CAN NOT RULE OUT LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP STILL
BEING CAPABLE OF FALLING OUT OF THE STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...A RESURGENCE OF THE WINTRY PRECIP
WILL OCCUR COURTESY OF YET ANOTHER EMBEDDED IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE SAID TIME. CONCURRENTLY...THE COLD AIR WILL BE
AT ITS COLDEST DUE TO THE SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SLIDING
SSE A BIT...LEADING TO 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -8 C TO -12 C
RANGE. AS SUCH...THE WARM NOSE WILL BE AT ITS WEAKEST...AND HENCE
SOUNDINGS ARE EXHIBITING A SNOW PROFILE ACROSS THE NRN AND NWRN
ZONES...SNOW OR SLEET PROFILE ACROSS THE CNTRL ZONES AND FREEZING
RAIN OR SLEET PROFILE ACROSS THE SRN ZONES. WITH THE EMBEDDED
IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE FA COUPLING WITH STRONG CAA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...THE INTENSITY OF THE WINTRY PRECIP
WILL BE AT ITS PEAK...AND WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR BANDED PRECIP TO DEVELOP...WHICH COULD POSE A RISK FOR
MODERATE WINTRY PRECIP. BY TOMORROW AFTN...THE IMPULSE WILL COMMENCE
TO EXIT THE REGION AND BEST PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWRD AS WELL.
CLOUDS WILL THIN A BIT FROM WEST TO EAST...THOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL ENSUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTN.

OVERALL...WE ARE EXPECTING A TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT /WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS/...1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE CNTRL ZONES AND 1 INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THE FAR SRN ZONES. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MAINLY
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN ZONES WHERE ONE-TENTH TO TWO-TENTHS
OF AN INCH MAY OCCUR. WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS COULD INCREASE MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED IF BANDED PRECIP DOES INDEED COME INTO FRUITION. AT THIS
TIME A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT...BUT WILL NEED TO
ANALYZE RADAR TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TO SEE IF A WARNING
BECOMES WARRANTED.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS CWA
WIDE. THIS COULD NOT ONLY MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS /AS THE GROUND GETS
COLDER MAKING IT EASIER FOR WINTRY PRECIP TO ACCUMULATE/...BUT WIND
CHILLS NEARING O WILL MAKE FOR QUITE A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING
TOMORROW. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
20S. KLBB LOWEST MAXIMUM RECORD FOR TOMORROW WILL THEREFORE BE IN
JEOPARDY...AS THE RECORD IS 34 DEGREES SET IN 1941...AND THE
FORECASTED HIGH FOR TOMORROW IS 26 DEGREES. /29

LONG TERM...
SHALLOW COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BRINGS
MODEST WARMING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A RISK FOR FOG AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH
WE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
SURFACE MOISTURE PROFILE. BUT WILL NEED TO ADDRESS THIS FURTHER
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIFT WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS NEXT
UPPER LOW HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SHARPER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. MID LEVEL MOISTURE CERTAINLY QUESTIONABLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK AS
ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE SURGE PASSES SOUTH...AND SOLUTIONS SHOWING
SHOWERS NOW OUTNUMBER THOSE THAT DONT. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE
A WEAK PASSING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE A DECENT WARMING...PROBABLY OUR ONLY DAY IN
THE COMING WEEK NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN...SOLUTIONS ARE
HONING IN ON AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. UNCLEAR IF THIS WILL BE A SEPARATE BOUNDARY FROM AN
ARCTIC SURGE EXPECTED BY EARLY THURSDAY. BUT ANOTHER PLUNGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FAIRLY SHARP
TROUGH IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH CARVES IN THE WEST
WHICH WILL QUICKLY SUPPORT CHANCE OF SNOW...THEN MORE CHANNELED
VORTICITY TO FOLLOW FRIDAY SO UNCLEAR IF PRECIPITATION THEN WILL
BE SIGNIFICANT ALTHOUGH MODEL TOTALS CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE AN ISSUE. THE FAR EXTENDED ONCE AGAIN LOOKS
LIKE WE MAY SEE A DEEPENING TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND HEIGHT RISES
ALONG THE EAST COAST LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND POTENTIAL TO PUMP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND. INITIALLY WOULD EXPECT LOWER LEVELS TO WARM BY SATURDAY
BEFORE PROBABLY ANOTHER TEMPERATURE DROP LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT
CONFIDENCE IN DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS DROPS DRAMATICALLY BY FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. /05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        12  24  16  39 /  70  70  10  10
TULIA         13  22  16  39 /  70  70  10  10
PLAINVIEW     14  24  18  40 /  70  70  10  10
LEVELLAND     15  26  19  41 /  70  70  10  10
LUBBOCK       14  26  19  41 /  70  70  10  10
DENVER CITY   18  26  20  41 /  70  70  10  10
BROWNFIELD    17  26  20  41 /  70  70  10  10
CHILDRESS     17  25  18  38 /  70  70  10  10
SPUR          17  25  19  41 /  70  70  10  10
ASPERMONT     19  25  21  39 /  70  70  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

14/93/14
214
FXUS64 KLUB 222333 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
533 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.AVIATION...
HEAVIER FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AND END AT THREE TAF
SITES WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. WILL OCCASIONALLY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AT ALL THE
TAF SITES BUT THESE WILL BE TOO FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO WARRANT
TEMPO GROUPS OR CHANGE PERIODS. EXPECT TO SEE A SECOND ROUND OF
HEAVIER FROZEN PRECIPITATION...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SLEET... IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. SLEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO OPTED TO GO WITH A LONG PREVAILING GROUP FOR SLEET OR
SLEET/SNOW MIX AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AS IT REMAINS TOO DIFFICULT
TO NARROW DOWN HOUR BY HOUR CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION INTENSITIES.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A 1050 MB SFC RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS AIDED IN
OOZING MUCH COLDER AIR TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN.
THIS IS EVIDENT IN TEMPS HAVING FELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WAS
DOWN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
WITH 20S ELSEWHERE PER 21Z METARS. SLIGHTLY BREEZY N-NE SFC WINDS
ENVELOPING THE REGION PROVIDES PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
COLD AIRMASS...THUS RESULTING IN THE NONE TO SURPRISING LOW
CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG BELOW 6 MILES FOR SOME LOCATIONS...AND LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL PHONE TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL
ACROSS THE REGION HAS RESULTED IN KNOWING THAT PRECIP TYPE HAS
RANGED FROM LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AND/OR SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NRN AND CNTRL SOUTH PLAINS...LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THIS MIXED BAG
OF PRECIP TYPES SUGGEST THAT THE WARM NOSE LOCATED BETWEEN 800MB-
700MB IS STILL PREVALENT. TEXAS TECH MESONET SITES AND CALLS TO
EMERGENCY PERSONNEL HAVE REPORTED THE WINTRY PRECIP TO BE RATHER
LIGHT...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. ASPHALT IS STILL A BIT
WARM DUE TO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH. HOWEVER...A
PUBLIC REPORT OF A THIN GLAZE OF ICE ACROSS A FEW OVERPASSES AND
BRIDGES WITHIN THE CITY OF LUBBOCK IMPLIES CAUTION SHOULD DEFINITELY
BE EXERCISED.

MODEL SOLUTIONS INCLUDING SOME HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT
AT A LULL IN ACTIVITY BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AS AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE
WITHIN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT /WHICH PROMPTED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS EARLIER THIS MORNING/ CONTINUED TO EXIT THE
REGION...THUS CAUSING FLEETING UL SUPPORT. WITH LOW LEVELS REMAINING
SATURATED AND COLD...CAN NOT RULE OUT LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP STILL
BEING CAPABLE OF FALLING OUT OF THE STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...A RESURGENCE OF THE WINTRY PRECIP
WILL OCCUR COURTESY OF YET ANOTHER EMBEDDED IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE SAID TIME. CONCURRENTLY...THE COLD AIR WILL BE
AT ITS COLDEST DUE TO THE SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SLIDING
SSE A BIT...LEADING TO 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -8 C TO -12 C
RANGE. AS SUCH...THE WARM NOSE WILL BE AT ITS WEAKEST...AND HENCE
SOUNDINGS ARE EXHIBITING A SNOW PROFILE ACROSS THE NRN AND NWRN
ZONES...SNOW OR SLEET PROFILE ACROSS THE CNTRL ZONES AND FREEZING
RAIN OR SLEET PROFILE ACROSS THE SRN ZONES. WITH THE EMBEDDED
IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE FA COUPLING WITH STRONG CAA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...THE INTENSITY OF THE WINTRY PRECIP
WILL BE AT ITS PEAK...AND WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR BANDED PRECIP TO DEVELOP...WHICH COULD POSE A RISK FOR
MODERATE WINTRY PRECIP. BY TOMORROW AFTN...THE IMPULSE WILL COMMENCE
TO EXIT THE REGION AND BEST PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWRD AS WELL.
CLOUDS WILL THIN A BIT FROM WEST TO EAST...THOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL ENSUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTN.

OVERALL...WE ARE EXPECTING A TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT /WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS/...1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE CNTRL ZONES AND 1 INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THE FAR SRN ZONES. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MAINLY
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN ZONES WHERE ONE-TENTH TO TWO-TENTHS
OF AN INCH MAY OCCUR. WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS COULD INCREASE MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED IF BANDED PRECIP DOES INDEED COME INTO FRUITION. AT THIS
TIME A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT...BUT WILL NEED TO
ANALYZE RADAR TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TO SEE IF A WARNING
BECOMES WARRANTED.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS CWA
WIDE. THIS COULD NOT ONLY MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS /AS THE GROUND GETS
COLDER MAKING IT EASIER FOR WINTRY PRECIP TO ACCUMULATE/...BUT WIND
CHILLS NEARING O WILL MAKE FOR QUITE A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING
TOMORROW. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
20S. KLBB LOWEST MAXIMUM RECORD FOR TOMORROW WILL THEREFORE BE IN
JEOPARDY...AS THE RECORD IS 34 DEGREES SET IN 1941...AND THE
FORECASTED HIGH FOR TOMORROW IS 26 DEGREES. /29

LONG TERM...
SHALLOW COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BRINGS
MODEST WARMING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A RISK FOR FOG AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH
WE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
SURFACE MOISTURE PROFILE. BUT WILL NEED TO ADDRESS THIS FURTHER
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIFT WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS NEXT
UPPER LOW HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SHARPER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. MID LEVEL MOISTURE CERTAINLY QUESTIONABLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK AS
ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE SURGE PASSES SOUTH...AND SOLUTIONS SHOWING
SHOWERS NOW OUTNUMBER THOSE THAT DONT. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE
A WEAK PASSING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE A DECENT WARMING...PROBABLY OUR ONLY DAY IN
THE COMING WEEK NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN...SOLUTIONS ARE
HONING IN ON AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. UNCLEAR IF THIS WILL BE A SEPARATE BOUNDARY FROM AN
ARCTIC SURGE EXPECTED BY EARLY THURSDAY. BUT ANOTHER PLUNGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FAIRLY SHARP
TROUGH IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH CARVES IN THE WEST
WHICH WILL QUICKLY SUPPORT CHANCE OF SNOW...THEN MORE CHANNELED
VORTICITY TO FOLLOW FRIDAY SO UNCLEAR IF PRECIPITATION THEN WILL
BE SIGNIFICANT ALTHOUGH MODEL TOTALS CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE AN ISSUE. THE FAR EXTENDED ONCE AGAIN LOOKS
LIKE WE MAY SEE A DEEPENING TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND HEIGHT RISES
ALONG THE EAST COAST LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND POTENTIAL TO PUMP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND. INITIALLY WOULD EXPECT LOWER LEVELS TO WARM BY SATURDAY
BEFORE PROBABLY ANOTHER TEMPERATURE DROP LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT
CONFIDENCE IN DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS DROPS DRAMATICALLY BY FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. /05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        12  24  16  39 /  70  70  10  10
TULIA         13  22  16  39 /  70  70  10  10
PLAINVIEW     14  24  18  40 /  70  70  10  10
LEVELLAND     15  26  19  41 /  70  70  10  10
LUBBOCK       14  26  19  41 /  70  70  10  10
DENVER CITY   18  26  20  41 /  70  70  10  10
BROWNFIELD    17  26  20  41 /  70  70  10  10
CHILDRESS     17  25  18  38 /  70  70  10  10
SPUR          17  25  19  41 /  70  70  10  10
ASPERMONT     19  25  21  39 /  70  70  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

14/93/14
771
FXUS64 KLUB 222137
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
337 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A 1050 MB SFC RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS AIDED IN
OOZING MUCH COLDER AIR TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN.
THIS IS EVIDENT IN TEMPS HAVING FELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WAS
DOWN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
WITH 20S ELSEWHERE PER 21Z METARS. SLIGHTLY BREEZY N-NE SFC WINDS
ENVELOPING THE REGION PROVIDES PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
COLD AIRMASS...THUS RESULTING IN THE NONE TO SURPRISING LOW
CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG BELOW 6 MILES FOR SOME LOCATIONS...AND LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL PHONE TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL
ACROSS THE REGION HAS RESULTED IN KNOWING THAT PRECIP TYPE HAS
RANGED FROM LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AND/OR SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NRN AND CNTRL SOUTH PLAINS...LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THIS MIXED BAG
OF PRECIP TYPES SUGGEST THAT THE WARM NOSE LOCATED BETWEEN 800MB-
700MB IS STILL PREVALENT. TEXAS TECH MESONET SITES AND CALLS TO
EMERGENCY PERSONNEL HAVE REPORTED THE WINTRY PRECIP TO BE RATHER
LIGHT...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. ASPHALT IS STILL A BIT
WARM DUE TO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH. HOWEVER...A
PUBLIC REPORT OF A THIN GLAZE OF ICE ACROSS A FEW OVERPASSES AND
BRIDGES WITHIN THE CITY OF LUBBOCK IMPLIES CAUTION SHOULD DEFINITELY
BE EXERCISED.

MODEL SOLUTIONS INCLUDING SOME HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT
AT A LULL IN ACTIVITY BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AS AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE
WITHIN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT /WHICH PROMPTED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS EARLIER THIS MORNING/ CONTINUED TO EXIT THE
REGION...THUS CAUSING FLEETING UL SUPPORT. WITH LOW LEVELS REMAINING
SATURATED AND COLD...CAN NOT RULE OUT LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP STILL
BEING CAPABLE OF FALLING OUT OF THE STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...A RESURGENCE OF THE WINTRY PRECIP
WILL OCCUR COURTESY OF YET ANOTHER EMBEDDED IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE SAID TIME. CONCURRENTLY...THE COLD AIR WILL BE
AT ITS COLDEST DUE TO THE SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SLIDING
SSE A BIT...LEADING TO 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -8 C TO -12 C
RANGE. AS SUCH...THE WARM NOSE WILL BE AT ITS WEAKEST...AND HENCE
SOUNDINGS ARE EXHIBITING A SNOW PROFILE ACROSS THE NRN AND NWRN
ZONES...SNOW OR SLEET PROFILE ACROSS THE CNTRL ZONES AND FREEZING
RAIN OR SLEET PROFILE ACROSS THE SRN ZONES. WITH THE EMBEDDED
IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE FA COUPLING WITH STRONG CAA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...THE INTENSITY OF THE WINTRY PRECIP
WILL BE AT ITS PEAK...AND WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR BANDED PRECIP TO DEVELOP...WHICH COULD POSE A RISK FOR
MODERATE WINTRY PRECIP. BY TOMORROW AFTN...THE IMPULSE WILL COMMENCE
TO EXIT THE REGION AND BEST PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWRD AS WELL.
CLOUDS WILL THIN A BIT FROM WEST TO EAST...THOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL ENSUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTN.

OVERALL...WE ARE EXPECTING A TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT /WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS/...1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE CNTRL ZONES AND 1 INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THE FAR SRN ZONES. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MAINLY
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN ZONES WHERE ONE-TENTH TO TWO-TENTHS
OF AN INCH MAY OCCUR. WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS COULD INCREASE MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED IF BANDED PRECIP DOES INDEED COME INTO FRUITION. AT THIS
TIME A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT...BUT WILL NEED TO
ANALYZE RADAR TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TO SEE IF A WARNING
BECOMES WARRANTED.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS CWA
WIDE. THIS COULD NOT ONLY MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS /AS THE GROUND GETS
COLDER MAKING IT EASIER FOR WINTRY PRECIP TO ACCUMULATE/...BUT WIND
CHILLS NEARING O WILL MAKE FOR QUITE A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING
TOMORROW. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
20S. KLBB LOWEST MAXIMUM RECORD FOR TOMORROW WILL THEREFORE BE IN
JEOPARDY...AS THE RECORD IS 34 DEGREES SET IN 1941...AND THE
FORECASTED HIGH FOR TOMORROW IS 26 DEGREES. /29

.LONG TERM...
SHALLOW COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BRINGS
MODEST WARMING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A RISK FOR FOG AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH
WE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
SURFACE MOISTURE PROFILE. BUT WILL NEED TO ADDRESS THIS FURTHER
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIFT WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS NEXT
UPPER LOW HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SHARPER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. MID LEVEL MOISTURE CERTAINLY QUESTIONABLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK AS
ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE SURGE PASSES SOUTH...AND SOLUTIONS SHOWING
SHOWERS NOW OUTNUMBER THOSE THAT DONT. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE
A WEAK PASSING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE A DECENT WARMING...PROBABLY OUR ONLY DAY IN
THE COMING WEEK NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN...SOLUTIONS ARE
HONING IN ON AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. UNCLEAR IF THIS WILL BE A SEPARATE BOUNDARY FROM AN
ARCTIC SURGE EXPECTED BY EARLY THURSDAY. BUT ANOTHER PLUNGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FAIRLY SHARP
TROUGH IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH CARVES IN THE WEST
WHICH WILL QUICKLY SUPPORT CHANCE OF SNOW...THEN MORE CHANNELED
VORTICITY TO FOLLOW FRIDAY SO UNCLEAR IF PRECIPITATION THEN WILL
BE SIGNIFICANT ALTHOUGH MODEL TOTALS CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE AN ISSUE. THE FAR EXTENDED ONCE AGAIN LOOKS
LIKE WE MAY SEE A DEEPENING TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND HEIGHT RISES
ALONG THE EAST COAST LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND POTENTIAL TO PUMP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND. INITIALLY WOULD EXPECT LOWER LEVELS TO WARM BY SATURDAY
BEFORE PROBABLY ANOTHER TEMPERATURE DROP LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT
CONFIDENCE IN DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS DROPS DRAMATICALLY BY FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. /05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        12  24  16  39 /  70  70  10  10
TULIA         13  22  16  39 /  70  70  10  10
PLAINVIEW     14  24  18  40 /  70  70  10  10
LEVELLAND     15  26  19  41 /  70  70  10  10
LUBBOCK       14  26  19  41 /  70  70  10  10
DENVER CITY   18  26  20  41 /  70  70  10  10
BROWNFIELD    17  26  20  41 /  70  70  10  10
CHILDRESS     17  25  18  38 /  70  70  10  10
SPUR          17  25  19  41 /  70  70  10  10
ASPERMONT     19  25  21  39 /  70  70  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

29/05
476
FXUS64 KLUB 221721
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1121 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KPVW AND KLBB...WITH MVFR CIGS NOTED AT
KCDS. WILL EXPECT DECKS TO FALL TO IFR CRITERIA AT KCDS LATER THIS
EVENING. -RA HAVE TRANSITIONED TO -FZDZ AT KLBB LATE THIS MORNING
THANKS TO A COLD AIRMASS SETTLING IN ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS
DROPPING TEMPS TO BELOW FREEZING. -FZDZ HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED
INTERMITTENTLY AT KPVW. WINTRY PRECIP HAVE NOT BEEN ONGOING AT
KCDS THOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WHEN A RESURGENCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS /AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING/. HAVE
THEREFORE INSERTED A WINTRY MIX OF -SNPL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VIS HAS ALSO FALLEN TO IFR
CRITERIA AT KLBB...AND ALSO KPVW BUT INTERMITTENTLY. VFR VIS
PERSISTS AT KCDS BUT WILL LIKELY FALL TO MVFR CRITERIA OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY THIS MORNING RATHER MILD CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CWA AS TEMPERATURES WERE SITTING ABOVE FREEZING...IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S AS OF 09Z. THE COLDER AIR WAS NOT TOO FAR AWAY THOUGH
AS TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S WERE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND HAS RECENTLY CHANGED THE RAIN TO SNOW AT KDHT
AND KDUX. THIS COLD AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOST/ALL OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY START
THE DAY ABOVE FREEZING...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 20S AREA-WIDE BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT AND WITH
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO TONIGHT.

OF EVEN GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AND AS IS OFTEN THE CASE P-TYPE WILL BE
TRICKY WITH A NOTABLE ELEVATED WARM NOSE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...PERIODS OF WEAK LIFT AND LACK OF MID-LEVEL
SATURATION DRAW INTO QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT ICE WILL BE INTRODUCED
INTO THE CLOUDS AT TIMES...WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
ALSO IN PLAY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THAT SAID...LOW CLOUDS WERE
ALREADY FILLING IN EARLY THIS MORNING AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT WAS
INCREASING. THIS LIFT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS AN AREA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT
COULD SUPPORT A MODERATE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...THOUGH -FZDZ COULD
PERSIST...BUT BETTER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER RIPPLE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD INCREASE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE/INTENSITY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

REGARDING P-TYPE...EARLY ON...IT WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN AND/OR
DRIZZLE...BUT AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH A CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW OR FZDZ IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH BY
15Z. THE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
SOUTHWARD AND SHOULD BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS BY
MIDDAY. NORTH OF THIS LINE ANY RAIN OR DZ WILL SWITCH TO FZDZ OR
SLEET AS THE MODEST WARM NOSE ALOFT IS EXPECT TO BE IN PLACE. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE WARM NOSE
SHOULD NOT BE AS PREVALENT AND SNOW WILL BE MORE LIKELY. THE RISK
OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ASIDE FROM THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...THE
WARM NOSE WILL KEEP A RISK OF SLEET OF SNOW IN THE PICTURE...WHILE
THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WHERE THE WARM NOSE IS STRONGEST...WILL
EXPERIENCE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. A FROZEN MIX WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE SNOW SHOULD BE THE DOMINATE
MODE WHEN THE STRONGER LIFT OCCURS. IN ADDITION...A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD BRING THE RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDER TONIGHT AS ONE
OR MORE CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOP AND RACE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH
THIS HAS BEEN OMITTED FROM THE GRIDDED FORECAST. OUTSIDE OF THE
DEEPER LIFT...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE
LOWER-LEVELS COULD COOL ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ICE AND PRODUCE FLURRIES
INSTEAD.

OVERALL...WE ARE FORECASTING AROUND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
LIQUID THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. WHERE
THIS IS PRIMARILY SNOW...ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...1-3 INCHES
SHOULD BE COMMON BY THE END OF THE EVENT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA...EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE
SNOW/SLEET TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. HOWEVER...A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR MORE OF ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS. ALL SAID...THE AREA-WIDE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS
VALID...THOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY LOCALIZED BANDING OF
HEAVIER FROZEN PRECIPITATION...AS THIS COULD PUSH AMOUNTS INTO
WARNING TERRITORY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES /AND ONSET OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION/...WE HAVE CHOSEN TO
STEP UP THE START TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WITH THE
NORTHERN TWO ROWS BEGINNING AFTER 15Z...AND THE REMAINDER OF
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 18Z. THE MAIN IMPACTS MAY BE DELAYED A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER THE START TIME AS THE GROUND REMAINS WARM...BUT THIS
SHOULD CHANGE AS THE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE
DAY.

LONG TERM...
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL BE IMPETUS FOR
CONTINUING PRECIP MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIFT AND PRECIP
DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. ACTUALLY...ANOTHER
JET STREAK WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RENEW SOME
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...BUT FORECAST X-SECTIONS SHOW PRONOUNCED MID-
LEVEL DRYING WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE TREND OF DIMINISHING PRECIP.
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AND HIGHS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 20S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE PRECIP MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND
SLEET...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SRN ROLLING PLAINS. SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE IS INDICATED ACROSS
THE SRN ZONES EARLY MONDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CONVINCE US TO ADD
THUNDER. PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRICKY...AS
GUIDANCE RANGES FROM JUST VERY LIGHT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TO SEVERAL
INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE NRN SOUTH
PLAINS. WE/VE TRENDED SOMEWHAT ON THE LOWER END OF ACCUMULATIONS
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SLEET...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO
NORTH TX MONDAY NIGHT WITH OUR LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S. TUESDAY WILL BRING THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW SPINNING
ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE IN
PLAY...SO THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR LIGHT PRECIP. BLENDED GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE AREA DRY AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MISSING...SO WE/LL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS
ONLY MODERATING INTO THE 40S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH WEAK
RIDGING AND WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 50S.
THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT SURGE OF POLAR AIR
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. ALOFT...A COUPLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION
PRECEDING A MORE POTENT TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY NEXT
WEEKEND. LIFT FROM THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WRING OUT SOME
PRECIP FROM THE VERY MODEST MOISTURE IN PLACE..AND ANY MOISTURE
THEY BRING WITH THEM. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES...BUT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEAR TO BE THE BEST TIME FRAME. TEMPS GENERALLY
APPEAR COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE...BUT
OF COURSE THIS FAR OUT IT IS A LITTLE TO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  14  25  17 /  60  70  50  10
TULIA         32  15  23  16 /  70  70  60  10
PLAINVIEW     35  16  23  19 /  60  70  60  10
LEVELLAND     36  17  27  20 /  60  70  60  10
LUBBOCK       36  17  26  20 /  60  70  60  10
DENVER CITY   38  19  27  21 /  60  70  50  10
BROWNFIELD    38  19  27  21 /  70  70  50  10
CHILDRESS     35  17  24  18 /  50  70  70  10
SPUR          37  18  24  19 /  70  70  70  10
ASPERMONT     38  20  26  21 /  80  70  70  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR TXZ033>044.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR TXZ021>032.

&&

$$

29
320
FXUS64 KLUB 221155
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
555 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND CONDITIONS ARE ONLY GOING TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
LATER TODAY. KPVW AND KLBB SHOULD FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH KCDS MAY PERSIST IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY MUCH OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION...DRIZZLE OR -RA COULD
AFFECT THE TERMINALS EARLY ON...BUT THE RISK FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BRING IN MUCH
COLDER AIR THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING AT KCDS AND KPVW BY 15-16Z...AND SHOULD HIT THE FREEZING
MARK AROUND MIDDAY AT KLBB. A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW IS
EXPECTED ONCE THE COLD AIR MOVES IN...WITH -FZDZ POSSIBLE WHEN
PRECIPITATION RATES FALL. THERE MAY BE A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING...BUT MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AN AWW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR KLBB LATER THIS MORNING...BUT WE WILL WAIT UNTIL WE GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON WHEN THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN
BEFORE ISSUING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY THIS MORNING RATHER MILD CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CWA AS TEMPERATURES WERE SITTING ABOVE FREEZING...IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S AS OF 09Z. THE COLDER AIR WAS NOT TOO FAR AWAY THOUGH
AS TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S WERE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND HAS RECENTLY CHANGED THE RAIN TO SNOW AT KDHT
AND KDUX. THIS COLD AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOST/ALL OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY START
THE DAY ABOVE FREEZING...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 20S AREA-WIDE BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT AND WITH
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO TONIGHT.

OF EVEN GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AND AS IS OFTEN THE CASE P-TYPE WILL BE
TRICKY WITH A NOTABLE ELEVATED WARM NOSE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...PERIODS OF WEAK LIFT AND LACK OF MID-LEVEL
SATURATION DRAW INTO QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT ICE WILL BE INTRODUCED
INTO THE CLOUDS AT TIMES...WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
ALSO IN PLAY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THAT SAID...LOW CLOUDS WERE
ALREADY FILLING IN EARLY THIS MORNING AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT WAS
INCREASING. THIS LIFT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS AN AREA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT
COULD SUPPORT A MODERATE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...THOUGH -FZDZ COULD
PERSIST...BUT BETTER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER RIPPLE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD INCREASE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE/INTENSITY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

REGARDING P-TYPE...EARLY ON...IT WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN AND/OR
DRIZZLE...BUT AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH A CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW OR FZDZ IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH BY
15Z. THE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
SOUTHWARD AND SHOULD BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS BY
MIDDAY. NORTH OF THIS LINE ANY RAIN OR DZ WILL SWITCH TO FZDZ OR
SLEET AS THE MODEST WARM NOSE ALOFT IS EXPECT TO BE IN PLACE. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE WARM NOSE
SHOULD NOT BE AS PREVALENT AND SNOW WILL BE MORE LIKELY. THE RISK
OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ASIDE FROM THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...THE
WARM NOSE WILL KEEP A RISK OF SLEET OF SNOW IN THE PICTURE...WHILE
THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WHERE THE WARM NOSE IS STRONGEST...WILL
EXPERIENCE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. A FROZEN MIX WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE SNOW SHOULD BE THE DOMINATE
MODE WHEN THE STRONGER LIFT OCCURS. IN ADDITION...A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD BRING THE RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDER TONIGHT AS ONE
OR MORE CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOP AND RACE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH
THIS HAS BEEN OMITTED FROM THE GRIDDED FORECAST. OUTSIDE OF THE
DEEPER LIFT...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE
LOWER-LEVELS COULD COOL ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ICE AND PRODUCE FLURRIES
INSTEAD.

OVERALL...WE ARE FORECASTING AROUND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
LIQUID THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. WHERE
THIS IS PRIMARILY SNOW...ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...1-3 INCHES
SHOULD BE COMMON BY THE END OF THE EVENT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA...EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE
SNOW/SLEET TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. HOWEVER...A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR MORE OF ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS. ALL SAID...THE AREA-WIDE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS
VALID...THOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY LOCALIZED BANDING OF
HEAVIER FROZEN PRECIPITATION...AS THIS COULD PUSH AMOUNTS INTO
WARNING TERRITORY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES /AND ONSET OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION/...WE HAVE CHOSEN TO
STEP UP THE START TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WITH THE
NORTHERN TWO ROWS BEGINNING AFTER 15Z...AND THE REMAINDER OF
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 18Z. THE MAIN IMPACTS MAY BE DELAYED A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER THE START TIME AS THE GROUND REMAINS WARM...BUT THIS
SHOULD CHANGE AS THE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE
DAY.

LONG TERM...
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL BE IMPETUS FOR
CONTINUING PRECIP MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIFT AND PRECIP
DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. ACTUALLY...ANOTHER
JET STREAK WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RENEW SOME
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...BUT FORECAST X-SECTIONS SHOW PRONOUNCED MID-
LEVEL DRYING WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE TREND OF DIMINISHING PRECIP.
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AND HIGHS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 20S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE PRECIP MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND
SLEET...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SRN ROLLING PLAINS. SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE IS INDICATED ACROSS
THE SRN ZONES EARLY MONDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CONVINCE US TO ADD
THUNDER. PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRICKY...AS
GUIDANCE RANGES FROM JUST VERY LIGHT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TO SEVERAL
INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE NRN SOUTH
PLAINS. WE/VE TRENDED SOMEWHAT ON THE LOWER END OF ACCUMULATIONS
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SLEET...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO
NORTH TX MONDAY NIGHT WITH OUR LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S. TUESDAY WILL BRING THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW SPINNING
ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE IN
PLAY...SO THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR LIGHT PRECIP. BLENDED GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE AREA DRY AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MISSING...SO WE/LL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS
ONLY MODERATING INTO THE 40S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH WEAK
RIDGING AND WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 50S.
THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT SURGE OF POLAR AIR
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. ALOFT...A COUPLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION
PRECEDING A MORE POTENT TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY NEXT
WEEKEND. LIFT FROM THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WRING OUT SOME
PRECIP FROM THE VERY MODEST MOISTURE IN PLACE..AND ANY MOISTURE
THEY BRING WITH THEM. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES...BUT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEAR TO BE THE BEST TIME FRAME. TEMPS GENERALLY
APPEAR COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE...BUT
OF COURSE THIS FAR OUT IT IS A LITTLE TO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  14  25  17 /  60  70  50  10
TULIA         32  15  23  16 /  70  70  60  10
PLAINVIEW     35  16  23  19 /  60  70  60  10
LEVELLAND     36  17  27  20 /  60  70  60  10
LUBBOCK       36  17  26  20 /  60  70  60  10
DENVER CITY   38  19  27  21 /  60  70  50  10
BROWNFIELD    38  19  27  21 /  70  70  50  10
CHILDRESS     35  17  24  18 /  50  70  70  10
SPUR          37  18  24  19 /  70  70  70  10
ASPERMONT     38  20  26  21 /  80  70  70  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
TXZ033>044.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR TXZ021>032.

&&

$$

23/33/23
320
FXUS64 KLUB 221036
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
436 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...
EARLY THIS MORNING RATHER MILD CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CWA AS TEMPERATURES WERE SITTING ABOVE FREEZING...IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S AS OF 09Z. THE COLDER AIR WAS NOT TOO FAR AWAY THOUGH
AS TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S WERE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND HAS RECENTLY CHANGED THE RAIN TO SNOW AT KDHT
AND KDUX. THIS COLD AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOST/ALL OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY START
THE DAY ABOVE FREEZING...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 20S AREA-WIDE BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT AND WITH
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO TONIGHT.

OF EVEN GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AND AS IS OFTEN THE CASE P-TYPE WILL BE
TRICKY WITH A NOTABLE ELEVATED WARM NOSE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...PERIODS OF WEAK LIFT AND LACK OF MID-LEVEL
SATURATION DRAW INTO QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT ICE WILL BE INTRODUCED
INTO THE CLOUDS AT TIMES...WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
ALSO IN PLAY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THAT SAID...LOW CLOUDS WERE
ALREADY FILLING IN EARLY THIS MORNING AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT WAS
INCREASING. THIS LIFT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS AN AREA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT
COULD SUPPORT A MODERATE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...THOUGH -FZDZ COULD
PERSIST...BUT BETTER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER RIPPLE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD INCREASE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE/INTENSITY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

REGARDING P-TYPE...EARLY ON...IT WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN AND/OR
DRIZZLE...BUT AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH A CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW OR FZDZ IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH BY
15Z. THE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
SOUTHWARD AND SHOULD BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS BY
MIDDAY. NORTH OF THIS LINE ANY RAIN OR DZ WILL SWITCH TO FZDZ OR
SLEET AS THE MODEST WARM NOSE ALOFT IS EXPECT TO BE IN PLACE. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE WARM NOSE
SHOULD NOT BE AS PREVALENT AND SNOW WILL BE MORE LIKELY. THE RISK
OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ASIDE FROM THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...THE
WARM NOSE WILL KEEP A RISK OF SLEET OF SNOW IN THE PICTURE...WHILE
THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WHERE THE WARM NOSE IS STRONGEST...WILL
EXPERIENCE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. A FROZEN MIX WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE SNOW SHOULD BE THE DOMINATE
MODE WHEN THE STRONGER LIFT OCCURS. IN ADDITION...A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD BRING THE RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDER TONIGHT AS ONE
OR MORE CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOP AND RACE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH
THIS HAS BEEN OMITTED FROM THE GRIDDED FORECAST. OUTSIDE OF THE
DEEPER LIFT...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE
LOWER-LEVELS COULD COOL ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ICE AND PRODUCE FLURRIES
INSTEAD.

OVERALL...WE ARE FORECASTING AROUND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
LIQUID THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. WHERE
THIS IS PRIMARILY SNOW...ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...1-3 INCHES
SHOULD BE COMMON BY THE END OF THE EVENT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA...EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE
SNOW/SLEET TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. HOWEVER...A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR MORE OF ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS. ALL SAID...THE AREA-WIDE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS
VALID...THOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY LOCALIZED BANDING OF
HEAVIER FROZEN PRECIPITATION...AS THIS COULD PUSH AMOUNTS INTO
WARNING TERRITORY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES /AND ONSET OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION/...WE HAVE CHOSEN TO
STEP UP THE START TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WITH THE
NORTHERN TWO ROWS BEGINNING AFTER 15Z...AND THE REMAINDER OF
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 18Z. THE MAIN IMPACTS MAY BE DELAYED A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER THE START TIME AS THE GROUND REMAINS WARM...BUT THIS
SHOULD CHANGE AS THE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE
DAY.

.LONG TERM...
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL BE IMPETUS FOR
CONTINUING PRECIP MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIFT AND PRECIP
DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. ACTUALLY...ANOTHER
JET STREAK WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RENEW SOME
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...BUT FORECAST X-SECTIONS SHOW PRONOUNCED MID-
LEVEL DRYING WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE TREND OF DIMINISHING PRECIP.
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AND HIGHS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 20S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE PRECIP MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND
SLEET...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SRN ROLLING PLAINS. SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE IS INDICATED ACROSS
THE SRN ZONES EARLY MONDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CONVINCE US TO ADD
THUNDER. PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRICKY...AS
GUIDANCE RANGES FROM JUST VERY LIGHT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TO SEVERAL
INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE NRN SOUTH
PLAINS. WE/VE TRENDED SOMEWHAT ON THE LOWER END OF ACCUMULATIONS
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SLEET...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO
NORTH TX MONDAY NIGHT WITH OUR LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S. TUESDAY WILL BRING THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW SPINNING
ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE IN
PLAY...SO THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR LIGHT PRECIP. BLENDED GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE AREA DRY AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MISSING...SO WE/LL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS
ONLY MODERATING INTO THE 40S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH WEAK
RIDGING AND WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 50S.
THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT SURGE OF POLAR AIR
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. ALOFT...A COUPLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION
PRECEDING A MORE POTENT TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY NEXT
WEEKEND. LIFT FROM THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WRING OUT SOME
PRECIP FROM THE VERY MODEST MOISTURE IN PLACE..AND ANY MOISTURE
THEY BRING WITH THEM. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES...BUT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEAR TO BE THE BEST TIME FRAME. TEMPS GENERALLY
APPEAR COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE...BUT
OF COURSE THIS FAR OUT IT IS A LITTLE TO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  14  25  17 /  60  70  50  10
TULIA         32  15  23  16 /  70  70  60  10
PLAINVIEW     35  16  23  19 /  60  70  60  10
LEVELLAND     36  17  27  20 /  60  70  60  10
LUBBOCK       36  17  26  20 /  60  70  60  10
DENVER CITY   38  19  27  21 /  60  70  50  10
BROWNFIELD    38  19  27  21 /  70  70  50  10
CHILDRESS     35  17  24  18 /  50  70  70  10
SPUR          37  18  24  19 /  70  70  70  10
ASPERMONT     38  20  26  21 /  80  70  70  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
TXZ033>044.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR TXZ021>032.

&&

$$

23/33
189
FXUS64 KLUB 220538 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1138 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR A TRANSITION TO MVFR THEN IFR CONDITIONS BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TRANSITION FROM
LIQUID TO FREEZING PRECIPITATION. CURRENT TAFS HAVE KEPT THE SAME
GENERAL TIME LINE FOR THE TRANSITION BUT HAVE TAKEN OUT MENTION
OF SNOW AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE AND SWITCH IT TO SLEET/ICE
PELLETS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON HOW
STRONG THE LAYER OF WARM AIR AT 5000 FEET WILL BE WHICH WILL
DETERMINE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. REGARDLESS...PROBABILITY OF
FROZEN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AT ALL THREE TAF SITES REMAINS HIGH
AND HAVE LEFT THIS AS THE PREVAILING PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AND SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. BEYOND
THIS...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THE TIMING INVOLVED IN THIS
FORECAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE WHICH WILL QUICKLY DROP TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. ALOFT...A LAYER OF WARM AND
MOIST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AROUND 5000 FEET. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. INITIALLY...THE PRECIPITATION
WILL START OFF ALL LIQUID BUT QUICKLY TRANSITION TO VARIOUS MIXES
OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION TYPES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING IN THESE
CHANGES REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT EXPECT THAT ALL THREE TAF
SITES WILL SEE SOME FORM OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL ALSO DROP INTO IFR TO LIFR RANGE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH ALL OF THE DAY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. ONLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT TRAVEL IN AND OUT OF
AREA AIRPORTS STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL COMPRISE OF SAYING GOODBYE TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH WE HAVE SEEN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...AND SAYING HELLO
TO COLDER TEMPS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIP.

BROAD UA CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUED TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS...THUS PROMOTING NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A PIECE OF EMBEDDED ENERGY WITHIN THE BROAD UA TROUGH IN
ADDITION TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAS ALREADY AIDED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS SERN CO AND NRN NM PER 21Z
METARS. LOOKING CLOSER TO HOME...THE COLD FRONT THAT BLASTED SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION LAST NIGHT WAS NOTED ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTN. TEMPS IN THE 50S IS THE RESULT
OF THE FROPA WHICH IS SOME 15 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
DURING THIS TIME /THOUGH NOT OVERLY COLD/. LIGHT SE TO NE SFC WINDS
HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY VEERING FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WHERE BY THIS
EVENING...THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE ENCOMPASSED BY AN UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME. THIS WIND COMPONENT WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH IS EVIDENT VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS AS IT SHOWS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS FOG BY LATE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FROPA
LAST NIGHT WILL BE OOZING SOUTH FROM CANADA TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND CREATE A SLIGHT TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE
TONIGHT...AND THUS CAUSE UPSLOPE WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20
MPH. CONCURRENTLY...A COLDER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN ACROSS THE CWA
WITH PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BELOW 0 C ACROSS THE NRN ZONES
BY 12Z. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE COLD AIR MASS...LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIP WILL COMMENCE TO IMPACT THE NRN ZONES AFTER AOA
MIDNIGHT. PRECIP TYPE REMAINS DIFFICULT AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A WARM NOSE BETWEEN THE 800 MB TO 700MB LAYER...WITH RELATIVELY DRY
MID-LEVELS. HENCE...PRECIP CAN TAKE THE FORM OF DRIZZLE...FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW...WHICH IS DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
WARM NOSE.

TOMORROW DURING THE DAY...THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE WILL NO
LONGER BE IN QUESTION ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES...AS IT WILL HAVE
DETERIORATED...LEAVING LIGHT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE. AS
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE FA AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE SPREADS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...FROZEN PRECIP WILL BE
PLAUSIBLE /SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN/ HENCE INDICATIVE OF A BIT OF
A WARM NOSE REMAINING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS AS THE WARM NOSE IS MOST PRONOUNCED THERE AND SFC TEMPS IS
PROGGED TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING /COULD MORE SO SEE
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN/. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE GFS...NAM
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF DISPLAY AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN ZONES TOMORROW AFTN...WHICH COULD ENCOURAGE
BANDED PRECIP AND THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MODERATE WINTRY
PRECIP LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SLEET. WHERE EXACTLY THE BANDED PRECIP
IS SHOWN TO SET UP VARIES AMONGST THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS BUT IN
GENERAL...IS SHOWN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SRN-HALF OF THE CWA. IF THE
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE DOES INDEED MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND IS
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT...THEN BANDED
PRECIP/MODERATE SLEET WILL BE PLAUSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. IN FACT...MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBIT TEMPS
FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH SUGGESTS  HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AOA MIDNIGHT. THESE COLD CONDITIONS AND WINTRY PRECIP WILL
LEAD TO ROAD CONDITIONS PROGRESSIVELY WORSENING WITH TIME. CAUTION
IS ADVISED. /29

LONG TERM...
COLD AIR WILL DEEPEN SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE WEAK SUP-TROPICAL IMPULSES
LOCATED NEAR BAJA EJECT OVERHEAD. DRYING IN LOWEST 100 MB WILL BE
A FACTOR IN EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS...BUT WE BELIEVE THE
TOTAL LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY WILL MOISTEN LOWER LEVELS AND
LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND RATES. SHOULD BE
POINTED OUT THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
LEADS TO MORE RAPID PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. WE ALSO ARE SEEING
MORE INDICATIONS OF BANDING AND MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUNDAY
NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. AND A WARM NOSE BETWEEN 700 AND 800 MB
WILL WARM AS MUCH AS 3 DEGREES CENITIGRADE SUNDAY EVENING OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH IS ENOUGH TO THINK THAT FREEZING RAIN COULD
BE A VIABLE OUTCOME AT LEAST FAR SOUTH...WHILE SLEET AND SNOW ARE
STILL WELL WITHIN REALM OF POSSIBILITY CENTRAL AREAS SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALL SNOW TO THE NORTH. SOLUTIONS STILL HAVE SOME DISTANCE
TO AGREE ON ALL THIS. BUT THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH COMING TOGETHER
THAT OUR CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A MODEST WINTER STORM EVENT HAS
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO ISSUE ADVISORIES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. THE LATEST WPC WINTER WEATHER GRAPHIC SUMS UP MOST OF THIS
PRETTY WELL.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH QUICKLY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SOLUTIONS SHOWING ENOUGH DRYING THAT WE WILL RETAIN NO
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. A NEW AND MORE FORMIDABLE
LOOKING LONG WAVE TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO CARVE OUT VIA A
SERIES OF SHARP WAVES LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD SEND ANOTHER DUMP OF SHARPLY COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA BY
THURSDAY...PROBABLY MORE-OR-LESS HOLDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WHILE SUCCESSIVE WAVES LINE UP TO OUR WEST. CONTINUED TO RAMP UP
INTO SLIGHTLY HIGHER...MAINLY SNOW CHANCES...BY LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND AT LEAST. /05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        29  29  14  26 /  20  50  70  50
TULIA         28  28  14  23 /  20  50  70  60
PLAINVIEW     31  31  15  25 /  20  50  70  60
LEVELLAND     31  33  16  27 /  10  50  70  50
LUBBOCK       32  33  16  25 /  10  50  70  60
DENVER CITY   34  37  18  28 /  10  40  70  50
BROWNFIELD    33  35  18  27 /  10  40  70  50
CHILDRESS     32  32  16  24 /  20  40  70  70
SPUR          33  34  17  25 /  10  50  70  70
ASPERMONT     35  36  19  26 /  10  50  70  70

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

14/93/14
179
FXUS64 KLUB 212341 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
541 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AND SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. BEYOND
THIS...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THE TIMING INVOLVED IN THIS
FORECAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE WHICH WILL QUICKLY DROP TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. ALOFT...A LAYER OF WARM AND
MOIST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AROUND 5000 FEET. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. INITIALLY...THE PRECIPITATION
WILL START OFF ALL LIQUID BUT QUICKLY TRANSITION TO VARIOUS MIXES
OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION TYPES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING IN THESE
CHANGES REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT EXPECT THAT ALL THREE TAF
SITES WILL SEE SOME FORM OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL ALSO DROP INTO IFR TO LIFR RANGE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH ALL OF THE DAY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. ONLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT TRAVEL IN AND OUT OF
AREA AIRPORTS STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL COMPRISE OF SAYING GOODBYE TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH WE HAVE SEEN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...AND SAYING HELLO
TO COLDER TEMPS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIP.

BROAD UA CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUED TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS...THUS PROMOTING NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A PIECE OF EMBEDDED ENERGY WITHIN THE BROAD UA TROUGH IN
ADDITION TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAS ALREADY AIDED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS SERN CO AND NRN NM PER 21Z
METARS. LOOKING CLOSER TO HOME...THE COLD FRONT THAT BLASTED SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION LAST NIGHT WAS NOTED ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTN. TEMPS IN THE 50S IS THE RESULT
OF THE FROPA WHICH IS SOME 15 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
DURING THIS TIME /THOUGH NOT OVERLY COLD/. LIGHT SE TO NE SFC WINDS
HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY VEERING FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WHERE BY THIS
EVENING...THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE ENCOMPASSED BY AN UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME. THIS WIND COMPONENT WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH IS EVIDENT VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS AS IT SHOWS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS FOG BY LATE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FROPA
LAST NIGHT WILL BE OOZING SOUTH FROM CANADA TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND CREATE A SLIGHT TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE
TONIGHT...AND THUS CAUSE UPSLOPE WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20
MPH. CONCURRENTLY...A COLDER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN ACROSS THE CWA
WITH PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BELOW 0 C ACROSS THE NRN ZONES
BY 12Z. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE COLD AIR MASS...LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIP WILL COMMENCE TO IMPACT THE NRN ZONES AFTER AOA
MIDNIGHT. PRECIP TYPE REMAINS DIFFICULT AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A WARM NOSE BETWEEN THE 800 MB TO 700MB LAYER...WITH RELATIVELY DRY
MID-LEVELS. HENCE...PRECIP CAN TAKE THE FORM OF DRIZZLE...FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW...WHICH IS DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
WARM NOSE.

TOMORROW DURING THE DAY...THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE WILL NO
LONGER BE IN QUESTION ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES...AS IT WILL HAVE
DETERIORATED...LEAVING LIGHT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE. AS
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE FA AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE SPREADS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...FROZEN PRECIP WILL BE
PLAUSIBLE /SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN/ HENCE INDICATIVE OF A BIT OF
A WARM NOSE REMAINING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS AS THE WARM NOSE IS MOST PRONOUNCED THERE AND SFC TEMPS IS
PROGGED TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING /COULD MORE SO SEE
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN/. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE GFS...NAM
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF DISPLAY AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN ZONES TOMORROW AFTN...WHICH COULD ENCOURAGE
BANDED PRECIP AND THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MODERATE WINTRY
PRECIP LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SLEET. WHERE EXACTLY THE BANDED PRECIP
IS SHOWN TO SET UP VARIES AMONGST THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS BUT IN
GENERAL...IS SHOWN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SRN-HALF OF THE CWA. IF THE
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE DOES INDEED MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND IS
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT...THEN BANDED
PRECIP/MODERATE SLEET WILL BE PLAUSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. IN FACT...MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBIT TEMPS
FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH SUGGESTS  HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AOA MIDNIGHT. THESE COLD CONDITIONS AND WINTRY PRECIP WILL
LEAD TO ROAD CONDITIONS PROGRESSIVELY WORSENING WITH TIME. CAUTION
IS ADVISED. /29

LONG TERM...
COLD AIR WILL DEEPEN SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE WEAK SUP-TROPICAL IMPULSES
LOCATED NEAR BAJA EJECT OVERHEAD. DRYING IN LOWEST 100 MB WILL BE
A FACTOR IN EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS...BUT WE BELIEVE THE
TOTAL LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY WILL MOISTEN LOWER LEVELS AND
LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND RATES. SHOULD BE
POINTED OUT THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
LEADS TO MORE RAPID PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. WE ALSO ARE SEEING
MORE INDICATIONS OF BANDING AND MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUNDAY
NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. AND A WARM NOSE BETWEEN 700 AND 800 MB
WILL WARM AS MUCH AS 3 DEGREES CENITIGRADE SUNDAY EVENING OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH IS ENOUGH TO THINK THAT FREEZING RAIN COULD
BE A VIABLE OUTCOME AT LEAST FAR SOUTH...WHILE SLEET AND SNOW ARE
STILL WELL WITHIN REALM OF POSSIBILITY CENTRAL AREAS SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALL SNOW TO THE NORTH. SOLUTIONS STILL HAVE SOME DISTANCE
TO AGREE ON ALL THIS. BUT THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH COMING TOGETHER
THAT OUR CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A MODEST WINTER STORM EVENT HAS
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO ISSUE ADVISORIES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. THE LATEST WPC WINTER WEATHER GRAPHIC SUMS UP MOST OF THIS
PRETTY WELL.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH QUICKLY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SOLUTIONS SHOWING ENOUGH DRYING THAT WE WILL RETAIN NO
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. A NEW AND MORE FORMIDABLE
LOOKING LONG WAVE TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO CARVE OUT VIA A
SERIES OF SHARP WAVES LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD SEND ANOTHER DUMP OF SHARPLY COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA BY
THURSDAY...PROBABLY MORE-OR-LESS HOLDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WHILE SUCCESSIVE WAVES LINE UP TO OUR WEST. CONTINUED TO RAMP UP
INTO SLIGHTLY HIGHER...MAINLY SNOW CHANCES...BY LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND AT LEAST. /05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        29  29  14  26 /  20  50  70  50
TULIA         28  28  14  23 /  20  50  70  60
PLAINVIEW     31  31  15  25 /  20  50  70  60
LEVELLAND     31  33  16  27 /  10  50  70  50
LUBBOCK       32  33  16  25 /  10  50  70  60
DENVER CITY   34  37  18  28 /  10  40  70  50
BROWNFIELD    33  35  18  27 /  10  40  70  50
CHILDRESS     32  32  16  24 /  20  40  70  70
SPUR          33  34  17  25 /  10  50  70  70
ASPERMONT     35  36  19  26 /  10  50  70  70

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

14/93/14
727
FXUS64 KLUB 212149
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL COMPRISE OF SAYING GOODBYE TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH WE HAVE SEEN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...AND SAYING HELLO
TO COLDER TEMPS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIP.

BROAD UA CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUED TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS...THUS PROMOTING NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A PIECE OF EMBEDDED ENERGY WITHIN THE BROAD UA TROUGH IN
ADDITION TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAS ALREADY AIDED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS SERN CO AND NRN NM PER 21Z
METARS. LOOKING CLOSER TO HOME...THE COLD FRONT THAT BLASTED SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION LAST NIGHT WAS NOTED ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTN. TEMPS IN THE 50S IS THE RESULT
OF THE FROPA WHICH IS SOME 15 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
DURING THIS TIME /THOUGH NOT OVERLY COLD/. LIGHT SE TO NE SFC WINDS
HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY VEERING FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WHERE BY THIS
EVENING...THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE ENCOMPASSED BY AN UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME. THIS WIND COMPONENT WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH IS EVIDENT VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS AS IT SHOWS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS FOG BY LATE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FROPA
LAST NIGHT WILL BE OOZING SOUTH FROM CANADA TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND CREATE A SLIGHT TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE
TONIGHT...AND THUS CAUSE UPSLOPE WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20
MPH. CONCURRENTLY...A COLDER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN ACROSS THE CWA
WITH PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BELOW 0 C ACROSS THE NRN ZONES
BY 12Z. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE COLD AIR MASS...LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIP WILL COMMENCE TO IMPACT THE NRN ZONES AFTER AOA
MIDNIGHT. PRECIP TYPE REMAINS DIFFICULT AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A WARM NOSE BETWEEN THE 800 MB TO 700MB LAYER...WITH RELATIVELY DRY
MID-LEVELS. HENCE...PRECIP CAN TAKE THE FORM OF DRIZZLE...FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW...WHICH IS DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
WARM NOSE.

TOMORROW DURING THE DAY...THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE WILL NO
LONGER BE IN QUESTION ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES...AS IT WILL HAVE
DETERIORATED...LEAVING LIGHT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE. AS
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE FA AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE SPREADS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...FROZEN PRECIP WILL BE
PLAUSIBLE /SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN/ HENCE INDICATIVE OF A BIT OF
A WARM NOSE REMAINING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS AS THE WARM NOSE IS MOST PRONOUNCED THERE AND SFC TEMPS IS
PROGGED TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING /COULD MORE SO SEE
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN/. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE GFS...NAM
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF DISPLAY AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN ZONES TOMORROW AFTN...WHICH COULD ENCOURAGE
BANDED PRECIP AND THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MODERATE WINTRY
PRECIP LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SLEET. WHERE EXACTLY THE BANDED PRECIP
IS SHOWN TO SET UP VARIES AMONGST THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS BUT IN
GENERAL...IS SHOWN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SRN-HALF OF THE CWA. IF THE
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE DOES INDEED MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND IS
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT...THEN BANDED
PRECIP/MODERATE SLEET WILL BE PLAUSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. IN FACT...MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBIT TEMPS
FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH SUGGESTS  HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AOA MIDNIGHT. THESE COLD CONDITIONS AND WINTRY PRECIP WILL
LEAD TO ROAD CONDITIONS PROGRESSIVELY WORSENING WITH TIME. CAUTION
IS ADVISED. /29

.LONG TERM...
COLD AIR WILL DEEPEN SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE WEAK SUP-TROPICAL IMPULSES
LOCATED NEAR BAJA EJECT OVERHEAD. DRYING IN LOWEST 100 MB WILL BE
A FACTOR IN EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS...BUT WE BELIEVE THE
TOTAL LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY WILL MOISTEN LOWER LEVELS AND
LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND RATES. SHOULD BE
POINTED OUT THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
LEADS TO MORE RAPID PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. WE ALSO ARE SEEING
MORE INDICATIONS OF BANDING AND MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUNDAY
NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. AND A WARM NOSE BETWEEN 700 AND 800 MB
WILL WARM AS MUCH AS 3 DEGREES CENITIGRADE SUNDAY EVENING OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH IS ENOUGH TO THINK THAT FREEZING RAIN COULD
BE A VIABLE OUTCOME AT LEAST FAR SOUTH...WHILE SLEET AND SNOW ARE
STILL WELL WITHIN REALM OF POSSIBILITY CENTRAL AREAS SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALL SNOW TO THE NORTH. SOLUTIONS STILL HAVE SOME DISTANCE
TO AGREE ON ALL THIS. BUT THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH COMING TOGETHER
THAT OUR CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A MODEST WINTER STORM EVENT HAS
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO ISSUE ADVISORIES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. THE LATEST WPC WINTER WEATHER GRAPHIC SUMS UP MOST OF THIS
PRETTY WELL.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH QUICKLY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SOLUTIONS SHOWING ENOUGH DRYING THAT WE WILL RETAIN NO
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. A NEW AND MORE FORMIDABLE
LOOKING LONG WAVE TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO CARVE OUT VIA A
SERIES OF SHARP WAVES LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD SEND ANOTHER DUMP OF SHARPLY COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA BY
THURSDAY...PROBABLY MORE-OR-LESS HOLDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WHILE SUCCESSIVE WAVES LINE UP TO OUR WEST. CONTINUED TO RAMP UP
INTO SLIGHTLY HIGHER...MAINLY SNOW CHANCES...BY LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND AT LEAST. /05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        29  29  14  26 /  20  50  70  50
TULIA         28  28  14  23 /  20  50  70  60
PLAINVIEW     31  31  15  25 /  20  50  70  60
LEVELLAND     31  33  16  27 /  10  50  70  50
LUBBOCK       32  33  16  25 /  10  50  70  60
DENVER CITY   34  37  18  28 /  10  40  70  50
BROWNFIELD    33  35  18  27 /  10  40  70  50
CHILDRESS     32  32  16  24 /  20  40  70  70
SPUR          33  34  17  25 /  10  50  70  70
ASPERMONT     35  36  19  26 /  10  50  70  70

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

29/05
712
FXUS64 KLUB 211742
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AT ALL THREE TAF SITES LATE THIS
MORNING. MVFR CLOUD DECKS STUBBORNLY AFFECTING KCDS IS SLOWLY
DETERIORATING AND WILL LIKELY SCOUR OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
AND THUS RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. SFC WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY
VEERING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AND BECOME
A BIT BREEZY /16-18 KTS/ BY TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CLOUD DECKS WILL
MAKE A RETURN BUT THIS TIME AFFECTING ALL THREE TAF SITES BY
TONIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF -PLFZRA AT KLBB AND KPVW AND -RASN AT KCDS DEVELOPING
TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE INSERTED A PROB30 AT THIS TIME...AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ONE MORE QUIET DAY IN IN STORE FOR THE CWA...THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON FRIDAY FOR MOST SPOTS. A
COLD FRONT BLASTED THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE LAST NIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WAS NOW MAKING HEADWAY THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN AS OF 09Z. POST-FRONTAL GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WERE GRADUALLY
EASING AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. A BATCH OF STRATUS
CLOUDS WAS ALSO ROAMING LOCATIONS OFF THE CAPROCK...THOUGH THESE
SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS TO
CONTEND WITH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
UNDER PLENTY OF FILTERED SUNSHINE AND THIS WILL SECURE
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S THOUGH THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS MAY EEK OUT A FEW LOWER 60S.

THE UPSLOPE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS A LARGE...COLD SURFACE
HIGH INVADES MUCH OF THE CENTER PART OF THE CONTINENT...THOUGH IT
APPEARS THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION LOCALLY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIR
WILL LEAD TO A GRADUALLY MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE...WITH CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FILL IN LATE TONIGHT. THAT SAID...THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE/LIFT AND BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. STILL...A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD
DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY...FAVORING THE NORTHERN ZONES...AND TAKING THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LIFT/SATURATION AND RATE OF COOLING OF THE LOW-
LEVELS. LOW TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER
20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

LONG TERM...
THE SITUATION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY BE BEST DESCRIBED AS A
WINTRY MESS. WE HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE
20S AND LOW 30S MAY BREAK RECORDS FOR THE COOLEST HIGHS FOR THE
DATES. LOWS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BREAK ANY RECORDS
BUT WIND CHILL READINGS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES WILL MAKE IT FEEL BITTERLY COLD.

PRECIP IS WHERE THE MESSY PART COMES IN. WE HAVE PRETTY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIP...BUT THERE IS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
PRECIP TYPES AND AMOUNTS...WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WHICH REDUCE CONFIDENCE. IN
GENERAL...WE EXPECT PRECIP TO GRADUALLY FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE COLD AIR MASS. IN THE
ABSENCE OF DEEP SATURATION THE PRECIP COULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR EVEN JUST SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SRN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF WEAK RIPPLES ALOFT MAY PROVIDE
PERIODS OF BETTER LIFT AND PRECIP RATES...WHILE SUPPORTING A
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND INTO
THE NE ZONES. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING IN
FROM THE SW TO PROVIDE DEEPER LIFT AND SATURATION ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN
UPTICK IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND RATES. DURING THIS PERIOD WE
ANTICIPATE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP ON THE CAPROCK WILL BE SLEET
AND SNOW...WHILE THE LINGERING WARM NOSE MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
PERHAPS SRN SPLNS. THE PRECIP SHOULD STILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

AS FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS...THE LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE MAY
SEE SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH
ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS TO NEAR TWO INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE
REASONABLE FROM THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. THERE ARE A COUPLE POTENTIAL SCENARIOS WHERE OUR NRN
ZONES COULD SEE MORE SNOW...PERHAPS UP INTO THE 4+ INCH
RANGE...WHILE ACROSS OUR SOUTH-SE ZONES ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD
APPROACH A QUARTER INCH...SO WINTER STORM OR ICE STORM WARNINGS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE JUST QUESTION YET. ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE MORE LIKELY THOUGH WITH AREA ROADS ALMOST CERTAINLY GOING TO
BECOME ICY AND CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS...POSSIBLY COINCIDING WITH
THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE
IMPACTS IN THE HWO AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

FOLLOWING THE STORM...WE STILL EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER-WAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS...BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ANOTHER WEAK FRONT SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM GETTING ANY WARMER. LATE IN THE WEEK...AN AMPLIFYING LARGE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIR TO SPILL SOUTH THROUGH THE U.S. PLAINS...WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR PROGGED TO COME INTO OUR AREA
SOMETIME THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SWD TO OUR WEST...THE
PATTERN SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP CHANCES TO RETURN BY
THURSDAY NIGHT OR SO...AND COULD STAY WITH US FOR A WHILE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  27  29  13 /   0  20  50  60
TULIA         53  27  28  13 /   0  20  50  60
PLAINVIEW     55  29  31  16 /   0  20  50  60
LEVELLAND     59  30  33  16 /   0  10  50  60
LUBBOCK       58  30  33  16 /   0  10  50  60
DENVER CITY   62  33  37  19 /   0  10  40  60
BROWNFIELD    61  31  35  18 /   0  10  50  60
CHILDRESS     56  30  31  16 /   0  20  40  60
SPUR          58  32  34  17 /   0  10  50  60
ASPERMONT     59  34  36  19 /   0  10  50  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
313
FXUS64 KLUB 211200
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
600 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

.AVIATION...
LAST NIGHT/S COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...THOUGH
THEY HAVE BEEN WEAKENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...KCDS HAS SEEN OCCASIONAL IFR TO MVFR
CIGS...WHICH COULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS FILL IN...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE PROSPECTS FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION /INCLUDING OF THE WINTRY VARIETY/ WILL
GRADUALLY MATERIALIZE...THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE AFTER THE
TAF WINDOW AND HAVE BEEN EXCLUDED FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ONE MORE QUIET DAY IN IN STORE FOR THE CWA...THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREE COOLER THAN ON FRIDAY FOR MOST SPOTS. A
COLD FRONT BLASTED THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE LAST NIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WAS NOW MAKING HEADWAY THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN AS OF 09Z. POST-FRONTAL GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WERE GRADUALLY
EASING AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. A BATCH OF STRATUS CLOUDS
WAS ALSO ROAMING LOCATIONS OFF THE CAPROCK...THOUGH THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER EASTERLY
AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER PLENTY OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE AND THIS WILL SECURE TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S THOUGH THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS MAY EEK OUT A FEW
LOWER 60S.

THE UPSLOPE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS A LARGE...COLD SURFACE
HIGH INVADES MUCH OF THE CENTER PART OF THE CONTINENT...THOUGH IT
APPEARS THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION LOCALLY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIR
WILL LEAD TO A GRADUALLY MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE...WITH CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FILL IN LATE TONIGHT. THAT SAID...THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE/LIFT AND BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. STILL...A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD
DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY...FAVORING THE NORTHERN ZONES...AND TAKING THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LIFT/SATURATION AND RATE OF COOLING OF THE LOW-
LEVELS. LOW TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER
20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

LONG TERM...
THE SITUATION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY BE BEST DESCRIBED AS A
WINTRY MESS. WE HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE
20S AND LOW 30S MAY BREAK RECORDS FOR THE COOLEST HIGHS FOR THE
DATES. LOWS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BREAK ANY RECORDS
BUT WIND CHILL READINGS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES WILL MAKE IT FEEL BITTERLY COLD.

PRECIP IS WHERE THE MESSY PART COMES IN. WE HAVE PRETTY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIP...BUT THERE IS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
PRECIP TYPES AND AMOUNTS...WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WHICH REDUCE CONFIDENCE. IN
GENERAL...WE EXPECT PRECIP TO GRADUALLY FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE COLD AIR MASS. IN THE
ABSENCE OF DEEP SATURATION THE PRECIP COULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR EVEN JUST SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SRN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF WEAK RIPPLES ALOFT MAY PROVIDE
PERIODS OF BETTER LIFT AND PRECIP RATES...WHILE SUPPORTING A
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND INTO
THE NE ZONES. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING IN
FROM THE SW TO PROVIDE DEEPER LIFT AND SATURATION ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN
UPTICK IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND RATES. DURING THIS PERIOD WE
ANTICIPATE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP ON THE CAPROCK WILL BE SLEET
AND SNOW...WHILE THE LINGERING WARM NOSE MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
PERHAPS SRN SPLNS. THE PRECIP SHOULD STILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

AS FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS...THE LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE MAY
SEE SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH
ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS TO NEAR TWO INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE
REASONABLE FROM THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. THERE ARE A COUPLE POTENTIAL SCENARIOS WHERE OUR NRN
ZONES COULD SEE MORE SNOW...PERHAPS UP INTO THE 4+ INCH
RANGE...WHILE ACROSS OUR SOUTH-SE ZONES ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD
APPROACH A QUARTER INCH...SO WINTER STORM OR ICE STORM WARNINGS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE JUST QUESTION YET. ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE MORE LIKELY THOUGH WITH AREA ROADS ALMOST CERTAINLY GOING TO
BECOME ICY AND CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS...POSSIBLY COINCIDING WITH
THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE
IMPACTS IN THE HWO AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

FOLLOWING THE STORM...WE STILL EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER-WAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS...BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ANOTHER WEAK FRONT SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM GETTING ANY WARMER. LATE IN THE WEEK...AN AMPLIFYING LARGE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIR TO SPILL SOUTH THROUGH THE U.S. PLAINS...WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR PROGGED TO COME INTO OUR AREA
SOMETIME THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SWD TO OUR WEST...THE
PATTERN SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP CHANCES TO RETURN BY
THURSDAY NIGHT OR SO...AND COULD STAY WITH US FOR A WHILE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  27  29  13 /   0  20  50  60
TULIA         53  27  28  13 /   0  20  50  60
PLAINVIEW     55  29  31  16 /   0  20  50  60
LEVELLAND     59  30  33  16 /   0  10  50  60
LUBBOCK       58  30  33  16 /   0  10  50  60
DENVER CITY   62  33  37  19 /   0  10  40  60
BROWNFIELD    61  31  35  18 /   0  10  50  60
CHILDRESS     56  30  31  16 /   0  20  40  60
SPUR          58  32  34  17 /   0  10  50  60
ASPERMONT     59  34  36  19 /   0  10  50  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23
003
FXUS64 KLUB 211017
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
417 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...
ONE MORE QUIET DAY IN IN STORE FOR THE CWA...THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREE COOLER THAN ON FRIDAY FOR MOST SPOTS. A
COLD FRONT BLASTED THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE LAST NIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WAS NOW MAKING HEADWAY THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN AS OF 09Z. POST-FRONTAL GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WERE GRADUALLY
EASING AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. A BATCH OF STRATUS CLOUDS
WAS ALSO ROAMING LOCATIONS OFF THE CAPROCK...THOUGH THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER EASTERLY
AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER PLENTY OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE AND THIS WILL SECURE TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S THOUGH THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS MAY EEK OUT A FEW
LOWER 60S.

THE UPSLOPE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS A LARGE...COLD SURFACE
HIGH INVADES MUCH OF THE CENTER PART OF THE CONTINENT...THOUGH IT
APPEARS THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION LOCALLY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIR
WILL LEAD TO A GRADUALLY MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE...WITH CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FILL IN LATE TONIGHT. THAT SAID...THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE/LIFT AND BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. STILL...A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD
DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY...FAVORING THE NORTHERN ZONES...AND TAKING THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LIFT/SATURATION AND RATE OF COOLING OF THE LOW-
LEVELS. LOW TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER
20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...
THE SITUATION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY BE BEST DESCRIBED AS A
WINTRY MESS. WE HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE
20S AND LOW 30S MAY BREAK RECORDS FOR THE COOLEST HIGHS FOR THE
DATES. LOWS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BREAK ANY RECORDS
BUT WIND CHILL READINGS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES WILL MAKE IT FEEL BITTERLY COLD.

PRECIP IS WHERE THE MESSY PART COMES IN. WE HAVE PRETTY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIP...BUT THERE IS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
PRECIP TYPES AND AMOUNTS...WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WHICH REDUCE CONFIDENCE. IN
GENERAL...WE EXPECT PRECIP TO GRADUALLY FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE COLD AIR MASS. IN THE
ABSENCE OF DEEP SATURATION THE PRECIP COULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR EVEN JUST SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SRN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF WEAK RIPPLES ALOFT MAY PROVIDE
PERIODS OF BETTER LIFT AND PRECIP RATES...WHILE SUPPORTING A
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND INTO
THE NE ZONES. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING IN
FROM THE SW TO PROVIDE DEEPER LIFT AND SATURATION ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN
UPTICK IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND RATES. DURING THIS PERIOD WE
ANTICIPATE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP ON THE CAPROCK WILL BE SLEET
AND SNOW...WHILE THE LINGERING WARM NOSE MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
PERHAPS SRN SPLNS. THE PRECIP SHOULD STILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

AS FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS...THE LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE MAY
SEE SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH
ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS TO NEAR TWO INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE
REASONABLE FROM THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. THERE ARE A COUPLE POTENTIAL SCENARIOS WHERE OUR NRN
ZONES COULD SEE MORE SNOW...PERHAPS UP INTO THE 4+ INCH
RANGE...WHILE ACROSS OUR SOUTH-SE ZONES ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD
APPROACH A QUARTER INCH...SO WINTER STORM OR ICE STORM WARNINGS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE JUST QUESTION YET. ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE MORE LIKELY THOUGH WITH AREA ROADS ALMOST CERTAINLY GOING TO
BECOME ICY AND CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS...POSSIBLY COINCIDING WITH
THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE
IMPACTS IN THE HWO AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

FOLLOWING THE STORM...WE STILL EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER-WAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS...BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ANOTHER WEAK FRONT SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM GETTING ANY WARMER. LATE IN THE WEEK...AN AMPLIFYING LARGE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIR TO SPILL SOUTH THROUGH THE U.S. PLAINS...WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR PROGGED TO COME INTO OUR AREA
SOMETIME THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SWD TO OUR WEST...THE
PATTERN SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP CHANCES TO RETURN BY
THURSDAY NIGHT OR SO...AND COULD STAY WITH US FOR A WHILE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  27  29  13 /   0  20  50  60
TULIA         53  27  28  13 /   0  20  50  60
PLAINVIEW     55  29  31  16 /   0  20  50  60
LEVELLAND     59  30  33  16 /   0  10  50  60
LUBBOCK       58  30  33  16 /   0  10  50  60
DENVER CITY   62  33  37  19 /   0  10  40  60
BROWNFIELD    61  31  35  18 /   0  10  50  60
CHILDRESS     56  30  31  16 /   0  20  40  60
SPUR          58  32  34  17 /   0  10  50  60
ASPERMONT     59  34  36  19 /   0  10  50  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33
887
FXUS64 KLUB 210515 CCA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1115 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

.AVIATION...
COLD FROPA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND
WILL CLEAR PVW MOMENTARILY...CDS BEFORE 06Z AND LBB JUST PAST
06Z. SUSTAINED NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SHY OF AWW
CRITERIA AT LBB /30 KNOTS/...HOWEVER AN HOUR OF GUSTS NEAR 40
KNOTS WITH SOME BLDU IS LIKELY BEFORE WINDS SCALE BACK MARKEDLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

EARLIER THREAT OF LOW VISBYS IN FOG AT CDS IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING
GIVEN A FASTER FROPA...BUT WE STILL EXPECT IFR CONDS FROM LOW CIGS
TO ENVELOP CDS IN THE HOURS AHEAD. IFR CIGS ARE NOTED FROM HHF-
HBR AND CONTINUE EXPANDING SW. DRIER AIR BY DAYBREAK SHOULD
QUICKLY RESTORE VFR CONDS WITH DIMINISHING NELY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATES TO INCREASE SKY COVER TONIGHT...ACCELERATE COLD
FROPA BY 1-2 HOURS...RAISE POST-FRONTAL WINDS...AND INTRODUCE
SOME FOG MENTION ACROSS OUR FAR NERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. FRONT
AS OF 830PM HAD ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH DUMAS WITH NORTHERLY
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND AT THIS PACE SHOULD ENTER OUR NWRN ZONES
BY 11 PM. FARTHER EAST...FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE QUICKLY EXPANDING
THROUGHOUT SWRN OK ON MOIST ELY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEE
LITTLE REASON WHY THESE LOWER VISBYS WON/T CONTINUE TO ADVECT
WEST INTO THE CHILDRESS AREA BEFORE FROPA IMPROVES VISBYS WITH
TIME.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/99/
085
FXUS64 KLUB 210515
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1115 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

.AVIATION...
COLD FROPA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND IS
WILL CLEAR PVW MOMENTARILY...CDS BEFORE 06Z AND LBB AROUND 06Z.
SUSTAINED NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SHY OF AWW CRITERIA
AT LBB /30 KNOTS/...HOWEVER AN HOUR OF GUSTS NEAR 40 KNOTS WITH
SOME BLDU IS LIKELY BEFORE WINDS SCALE BACK MARKEDLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

EARLIER THREAT OF LOW VISBYS IN FOG AT CDS IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING
GIVEN A FASTER FROPA...BUT WE STILL EXPECT IFR CONDS FROM LOW CIGS
TO ENVELOP CDS IN THE HOURS AHEAD. IFR CIGS ARE NOTED FROM HHF-
HBR AND CONTINUE EXPANDING SW. DRIER AIR BY DAYBREAK SHOULD
QUICKLY RESTORE VFR CONDS WITH DIMINISHING NELY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATES TO INCREASE SKY COVER TONIGHT...ACCELERATE COLD
FROPA BY 1-2 HOURS...RAISE POST-FRONTAL WINDS...AND INTRODUCE
SOME FOG MENTION ACROSS OUR FAR NERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. FRONT
AS OF 830PM HAD ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH DUMAS WITH NORTHERLY
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND AT THIS PACE SHOULD ENTER OUR NWRN ZONES
BY 11 PM. FARTHER EAST...FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE QUICKLY EXPANDING
THROUGHOUT SWRN OK ON MOIST ELY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEE
LITTLE REASON WHY THESE LOWER VISBYS WON/T CONTINUE TO ADVECT
WEST INTO THE CHILDRESS AREA BEFORE FROPA IMPROVES VISBYS WITH
TIME.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/99/
646
FXUS64 KLUB 210302 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
902 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATES TO INCREASE SKY COVER TONIGHT...ACCELERATE COLD
FROPA BY 1-2 HOURS...RAISE POST-FRONTAL WINDS...AND INTRODUCE
SOME FOG MENTION ACROSS OUR FAR NERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. FRONT
AS OF 830PM HAD ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH DUMAS WITH NORTHERLY
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND AT THIS PACE SHOULD ENTER OUR NWRN ZONES
BY 11 PM. FARTHER EAST...FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE QUICKLY EXPANDING
THROUGHOUT SWRN OK ON MOIST ELY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEE
LITTLE REASON WHY THESE LOWER VISBYS WON/T CONTINUE TO ADVECT
WEST INTO THE CHILDRESS AREA BEFORE FROPA IMPROVES VISBYS WITH
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2015/

AVIATION...
CONDITIONAL THREAT EXISTS FOR IFR-MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z FOLLOWING
COLD FROPA AT ALL THE TERMINALS. CDS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A COUPLE HOURS OF IFR CIGS GIVEN STRATUS ALREADY IN NWRN
OK...BUT THESE MAY PROVE TOO FLEETING AND AS SUCH WILL AMEND TAF
IF TRENDS SHOW OTHERWISE. ALSO KEPT SCT LOW CLOUDS AT LBB AND
PVW FOLLOWING FROPA FROM 08Z-09Z. REGARDLESS...DRIER NORTH
WINDS ON SAT SHOULD SERVE TO SCOUR OUT THESE LOW CLOUDS BY
MID-LATE MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A SFC TROUGH DRAPED FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...HAS
RESULTED IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS AND BREEZY W-SW WINDS ELSEWHERE /THANKS TO A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT/. AS A RESULT...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE PLUMMETED TO 9-25 PERCENT ON THE CAPROCK AND ACROSS
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...WITH LOWEST VALUES NOTED ON THE
CAPROCK...THUS CREATING AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. THE DOWNSLOPE SFC WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH...HIGHS IN THE 70S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MORE SO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT. KLBB WAS SITTING AT 79 DEGREES
WHICH IS 3 DEGREES FROM THE RECORD SET IN 1996. THE GRADIENT IS
POISED TO RELAX AOA SUNSET..SETTING US UP WITH LIGHTER W-SW WINDS
ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...WHERE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL ENSUE INTO TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY AS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RACES EAST ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE/CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT...AND AID IN DIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FA. THE
TIMING OF THE FROPA IS AS SUCH: WILL BE AT OUR DOOR STEP/ACROSS THE
SRN TX PANHANDLE AOA MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WILL IMPACT KLBB AOA 3 AM
AND CLEAR THE CWA AN HOUR SO BEFORE SUNRISE. ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS WILL
BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
/PWATS LESS THAN 0.35 INCHES/...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP. PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF 3-8 MB PER 3 HRS SUGGEST N-NE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO
15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS INITIALLY AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BEFORE SETTLING DOWN TO 10-15 MPH A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
WILL ONLY RECOVER IN THE 50S WITH A FEW 60S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.
/29

LONG TERM...
SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS ARRIVING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS STILL APPEAR A BIT MARGINAL
THOUGH THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS SHOULD SUFFICE TO GENERATE AT
LEAST LIGHT SNOWFALL OR MAYBE FREEZING DRIZZLE SPREADING NORTH TO
SOUTH SUNDAY. ALOFT...WE CONTINUE TO SEE DECENT AGREEMENT ON
EJECTION OF AN OLD PACIFIC LOW MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY
WITH INCREASING DYNAMIC LIFT ON TOP OF THE UPSLOPE PATTERN. THE
BIGGEST QUESTIONS REGARD QUALITY AND DEPTH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...IF THIS WILL SYNCH DECENT ENOUGH
WITH THE LIFT FOR MEANINGFUL SNOW GROWTH ALOFT. ANOTHER TREND HAS
BEEN FOR A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES DURING THIS PERIOD FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO OR EVEN THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS GIVING A DEPICTION OF SLEET FAVORING
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...AND EVEN ENOUGH WARM NOSE EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES FOR SOME VALID RISK OF FREEZING RAIN.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE TRENDED CHANCES SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON SLIGHT
CONVERGENCE OF SOLUTIONS BUT NOT YET INTO LIKELY CATEGORY. WE ALSO
ADJUSTED WEATHER TYPES SLIGHTLY AS MENTIONED ABOVE. AN ADVISORY
PERIOD FOR WINTER WEATHER STILL LOOKS PLAUSIBLE THOUGH NOT YET
CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT WARM EITHER. WE
STILL EXPECT A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE MID-WEEK WHICH SHOULD AT
LEAST ALLOW MODIFICATION OF THE COLD AIR THOUGH IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO CLIMB ALL THE WAY BACK TO NORMAL BECAUSE OF THE NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW COMING OUT OF CANADA AND ALL THE COLD AIR
BOTTLED UP ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. A NEW FRONT LOOKS TO BE
ENTERING THE AREA PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AND WE HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY COLDER LATER IN THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO
STILL SEEM VALID AS A LARGE-SCALE COLD UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND SOUTHWEST. TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES NOT AT ALL CLEAR BUT THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
THIS LIKELY WOULD BE AN ISSUE. SO WE RETAINED A CHANCE FOR MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW LATER IN THE WEEK. /05 RMCQUEEN

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
688
FXUS64 KLUB 202346
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
546 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONAL THREAT EXISTS FOR IFR-MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z FOLLOWING
COLD FROPA AT ALL THE TERMINALS. CDS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A COUPLE HOURS OF IFR CIGS GIVEN STRATUS ALREADY IN NWRN
OK...BUT THESE MAY PROVE TOO FLEETING AND AS SUCH WILL AMEND TAF
IF TRENDS SHOW OTHERWISE. ALSO KEPT SCT LOW CLOUDS AT LBB AND
PVW FOLLOWING FROPA FROM 08Z-09Z. REGARDLESS...DRIER NORTH
WINDS ON SAT SHOULD SERVE TO SCOUR OUT THESE LOW CLOUDS BY
MID-LATE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A SFC TROUGH DRAPED FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...HAS
RESULTED IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS AND BREEZY W-SW WINDS ELSEWHERE /THANKS TO A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT/. AS A RESULT...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE PLUMMETED TO 9-25 PERCENT ON THE CAPROCK AND ACROSS
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...WITH LOWEST VALUES NOTED ON THE
CAPROCK...THUS CREATING AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. THE DOWNSLOPE SFC WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH...HIGHS IN THE 70S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MORE SO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT. KLBB WAS SITTING AT 79 DEGREES
WHICH IS 3 DEGREES FROM THE RECORD SET IN 1996. THE GRADIENT IS
POISED TO RELAX AOA SUNSET..SETTING US UP WITH LIGHTER W-SW WINDS
ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...WHERE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL ENSUE INTO TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY AS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RACES EAST ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE/CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT...AND AID IN DIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FA. THE
TIMING OF THE FROPA IS AS SUCH: WILL BE AT OUR DOOR STEP/ACROSS THE
SRN TX PANHANDLE AOA MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WILL IMPACT KLBB AOA 3 AM
AND CLEAR THE CWA AN HOUR SO BEFORE SUNRISE. ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS WILL
BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
/PWATS LESS THAN 0.35 INCHES/...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP. PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF 3-8 MB PER 3 HRS SUGGEST N-NE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO
15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS INITIALLY AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BEFORE SETTLING DOWN TO 10-15 MPH A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
WILL ONLY RECOVER IN THE 50S WITH A FEW 60S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.
/29

LONG TERM...
SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS ARRIVING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS STILL APPEAR A BIT MARGINAL
THOUGH THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS SHOULD SUFFICE TO GENERATE AT
LEAST LIGHT SNOWFALL OR MAYBE FREEZING DRIZZLE SPREADING NORTH TO
SOUTH SUNDAY. ALOFT...WE CONTINUE TO SEE DECENT AGREEMENT ON
EJECTION OF AN OLD PACIFIC LOW MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY
WITH INCREASING DYNAMIC LIFT ON TOP OF THE UPSLOPE PATTERN. THE
BIGGEST QUESTIONS REGARD QUALITY AND DEPTH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...IF THIS WILL SYNCH DECENT ENOUGH
WITH THE LIFT FOR MEANINGFUL SNOW GROWTH ALOFT. ANOTHER TREND HAS
BEEN FOR A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES DURING THIS PERIOD FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO OR EVEN THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS GIVING A DEPICTION OF SLEET FAVORING
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...AND EVEN ENOUGH WARM NOSE EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES FOR SOME VALID RISK OF FREEZING RAIN.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE TRENDED CHANCES SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON SLIGHT
CONVERGENCE OF SOLUTIONS BUT NOT YET INTO LIKELY CATEGORY. WE ALSO
ADJUSTED WEATHER TYPES SLIGHTLY AS MENTIONED ABOVE. AN ADVISORY
PERIOD FOR WINTER WEATHER STILL LOOKS PLAUSIBLE THOUGH NOT YET
CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT WARM EITHER. WE
STILL EXPECT A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE MID-WEEK WHICH SHOULD AT
LEAST ALLOW MODIFICATION OF THE COLD AIR THOUGH IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO CLIMB ALL THE WAY BACK TO NORMAL BECAUSE OF THE NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW COMING OUT OF CANADA AND ALL THE COLD AIR
BOTTLED UP ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. A NEW FRONT LOOKS TO BE
ENTERING THE AREA PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AND WE HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY COLDER LATER IN THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO
STILL SEEM VALID AS A LARGE-SCALE COLD UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND SOUTHWEST. TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES NOT AT ALL CLEAR BUT THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
THIS LIKELY WOULD BE AN ISSUE. SO WE RETAINED A CHANCE FOR MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW LATER IN THE WEEK. /05 RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
A NEARBY SFC TROUGH HAS PROMOTED A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTN...RESULTING IN W TO SW WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH ACROSS THE SAID
AREAS. THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO INCREASE INTO THE
70S THUS CAUSING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 9-25
PERCENT RANGE. THE LOWEST HUMIDITIES WERE NOTED ON THE CAPROCK.
THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH...HUMIDITIES AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT AND
BREEZY W TO SW WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER. IN
FACT...A GRASS FIRE WAS OCCURRING 5 MILES SW OF MULESHOE LATE
THIS AFTN. LATEST PHONE CALLS TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL STATED THAT
THE FIRE HAS BECOME CONTAINED. A FEW LOCALES ON THE CAPROCK HAVE
TICKED OFF SEVERAL HOURS OF RED FLAG MINUTES...BUT IS NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR THE THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING.
HOWEVER...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR MAINLY ON THE
CAPROCK UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
628
FXUS64 KLUB 202134
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
334 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A SFC TROUGH DRAPED FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...HAS
RESULTED IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS AND BREEZY W-SW WINDS ELSEWHERE /THANKS TO A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT/. AS A RESULT...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE PLUMMETED TO 9-25 PERCENT ON THE CAPROCK AND ACROSS
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...WITH LOWEST VALUES NOTED ON THE
CAPROCK...THUS CREATING AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. THE DOWNSLOPE SFC WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH...HIGHS IN THE 70S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MORE SO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT. KLBB WAS SITTING AT 79 DEGREES
WHICH IS 3 DEGREES FROM THE RECORD SET IN 1996. THE GRADIENT IS
POISED TO RELAX AOA SUNSET..SETTING US UP WITH LIGHTER W-SW WINDS
ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...WHERE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL ENSUE INTO TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY AS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RACES EAST ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE/CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT...AND AID IN DIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FA. THE
TIMING OF THE FROPA IS AS SUCH: WILL BE AT OUR DOOR STEP/ACROSS THE
SRN TX PANHANDLE AOA MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WILL IMPACT KLBB AOA 3 AM
AND CLEAR THE CWA AN HOUR SO BEFORE SUNRISE. ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS WILL
BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
/PWATS LESS THAN 0.35 INCHES/...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP. PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF 3-8 MB PER 3 HRS SUGGEST N-NE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO
15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS INITIALLY AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BEFORE SETTLING DOWN TO 10-15 MPH A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
WILL ONLY RECOVER IN THE 50S WITH A FEW 60S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.
/29


.LONG TERM...
SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS ARRIVING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS STILL APPEAR A BIT MARGINAL
THOUGH THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS SHOULD SUFFICE TO GENERATE AT
LEAST LIGHT SNOWFALL OR MAYBE FREEZING DRIZZLE SPREADING NORTH TO
SOUTH SUNDAY. ALOFT...WE CONTINUE TO SEE DECENT AGREEMENT ON
EJECTION OF AN OLD PACIFIC LOW MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY
WITH INCREASING DYNAMIC LIFT ON TOP OF THE UPSLOPE PATTERN. THE
BIGGEST QUESTIONS REGARD QUALITY AND DEPTH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...IF THIS WILL SYNCH DECENT ENOUGH
WITH THE LIFT FOR MEANINGFUL SNOW GROWTH ALOFT. ANOTHER TREND HAS
BEEN FOR A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES DURING THIS PERIOD FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO OR EVEN THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS GIVING A DEPICTION OF SLEET FAVORING
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...AND EVEN ENOUGH WARM NOSE EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES FOR SOME VALID RISK OF FREEZING RAIN.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE TRENDED CHANCES SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON SLIGHT
CONVERGENCE OF SOLUTIONS BUT NOT YET INTO LIKELY CATEGORY. WE ALSO
ADJUSTED WEATHER TYPES SLIGHTLY AS MENTIONED ABOVE. AN ADVISORY
PERIOD FOR WINTER WEATHER STILL LOOKS PLAUSIBLE THOUGH NOT YET
CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT WARM EITHER. WE
STILL EXPECT A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE MID-WEEK WHICH SHOULD AT
LEAST ALLOW MODIFICATION OF THE COLD AIR THOUGH IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO CLIMB ALL THE WAY BACK TO NORMAL BECAUSE OF THE NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW COMING OUT OF CANADA AND ALL THE COLD AIR
BOTTLED UP ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. A NEW FRONT LOOKS TO BE
ENTERING THE AREA PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AND WE HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY COLDER LATER IN THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO
STILL SEEM VALID AS A LARGE-SCALE COLD UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND SOUTHWEST. TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES NOT AT ALL CLEAR BUT THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
THIS LIKELY WOULD BE AN ISSUE. SO WE RETAINED A CHANCE FOR MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW LATER IN THE WEEK. /05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A NEARBY SFC TROUGH HAS PROMOTED A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTN...RESULTING IN W TO SW WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH ACROSS THE SAID
AREAS. THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO INCREASE INTO THE
70S THUS CAUSING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 9-25
PERCENT RANGE. THE LOWEST HUMIDITIES WERE NOTED ON THE CAPROCK.
THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH...HUMIDITIES AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT AND
BREEZY W TO SW WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER. IN
FACT...A GRASS FIRE WAS OCCURRING 5 MILES SW OF MULESHOE LATE
THIS AFTN. LATEST PHONE CALLS TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL STATED THAT
THE FIRE HAS BECOME CONTAINED. A FEW LOCALES ON THE CAPROCK HAVE
TICKED OFF SEVERAL HOURS OF RED FLAG MINUTES...BUT IS NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR THE THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING.
HOWEVER...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR MAINLY ON THE
CAPROCK UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  54  24  25 /   0   0  20  40
TULIA         36  52  23  26 /   0   0  20  40
PLAINVIEW     37  54  25  28 /   0   0  20  40
LEVELLAND     39  57  29  31 /   0   0  10  30
LUBBOCK       39  57  29  30 /   0   0  10  30
DENVER CITY   40  60  30  35 /   0   0   0  30
BROWNFIELD    41  59  30  32 /   0   0   0  40
CHILDRESS     41  56  28  32 /   0   0  10  20
SPUR          43  57  29  31 /   0   0  10  40
ASPERMONT     44  59  30  36 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05
764
FXUS64 KLUB 201735
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1135 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT NW SFC WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AT KLBB AND KPVW WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 16-18 KT RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH KCDS
MORE SO EXPERIENCING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECLINE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET TO 10 KTS OR LESS. A BREEZY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...IMPACTING
KCDS AROUND MIDNIGHT...KPVW AROUND 2 AM AND KLBB ABOUT AN HOUR
LATER. WINDS WILL THEREFORE VEER TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 16-18 KT RANGE...AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT A BRIEF PERIOD OF POST
FRONTAL SUB-VFR DECKS DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH NOT ALL MODELS SHOW
THIS. WILL HOLD ON TO SCT MVFR DECKS FOR NOW AND WILL OF COURSE
AMEND AS NECESSARY. SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECLINE BELOW 12 KTS AND ANY LINGERING SUB-VFR DECKS WILL COMMENCE
TO SCOUR OUT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AS WEST TEXAS
WILL BE POSITIONED UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WARMTH WILL
COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR A COLD FRONT
TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS.

INITIALLY...EARLY THIS MORNING...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY COOLER
AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS IN PLACE THERE. OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA...BREEZY AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
CAPROCK AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
LOCALLY...AND WE MIX INTO MODEST WINDS ALOFT. WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-
20 KNOTS WILL BECOME COMMON ON THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS FANNING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH LOWER 70S BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR CHILDRESS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HIGH FOR LUBBOCK IS 82 DEGREES...WHICH IF REACHED...WOULD
TIE THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE WHICH WAS SET BACK IN 1996. THE
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ELEVATED THE FIRE DANGER
THIS AFTERNOON /SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS/.

LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZES WILL ENSURE A MILD EVENING...BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR NORTHERN BORDER AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE RACING
SOUTHWARD AND EXITING THE SOUTHERN ZONES WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK.
PRESSURE RISES AROUND 8 MB/3 HOURS ALONG WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-25 KNOTS FOR A SHORT
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...THERE COULD BE SOME POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS...THOUGH PROGGED MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT TOO
CONVINCING...AND SUGGEST LIMITED COVERAGE/DURATION OF ANY LOW
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
30S...EXCEPT FOR LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

LONG TERM...
.A COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR MASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE FRONT WHICH IN TURN HAS COOLED HIGH
TEMPS SOME SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH OUR SRN ZONES COULD STILL MAKE 60
DEGREES OR SO BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. DOWNSTREAM OVER WTX...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR AND AS A RESULT WE SHOULD SEE
LOW CLOUDS START TO FILL IN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DURING THIS
PERIOD WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO THE NRN SPLNS. COLD
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR WILL POUR INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND AS SKIES
TURN CLOUDY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD-PRESSED TO RISE MUCH AT
ALL...HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30F ACROSS THE NORTH AND
SOME HIGH TEMPS COULD BE SET AT MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TWO MINOR WAVES WILL SLIDE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THESE WAVES WILL
PROVIDE PERIODS OF ENHANCED LIFT AND PERHAPS INCREASED PRECIP
RATES AND COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY THE SECOND WAVE. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DWINDLE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THAT SECOND WAVE. PRECIP TYPE APPEARS
TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PERIODS OF SLEET. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
SHOULD SEE A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. AT THIS
TIME WE WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO PRECISELY FORECAST THE AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS OF SNOW/ICE...BUT IN GENERAL...IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF
THE CAPROCK COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND
NW SPLNS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. WE PLAN ON HIGHLIGHTING
THIS WINTER WEATHER IN AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THIS MORNING.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY GET KICKED EAST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM-
RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL
WITH THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM AND WE/VE LIMITED MENTION TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL CARVE OUT A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST AND HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER INTRUSION OF COLD AIR AND MAY SET UP
THE NEXT BOUT OF WINTRY PRECIP LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL CLOSE OUT FEBRUARY ON A COLD NOTE.

FIRE WEATHER...

NEAR RECORD WARMTH /HIGHS FROM THE MID-70S TO MID-80S/...GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS /SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH AT 20 FT/ AND DRY CONDITIONS
/RH VALUES FALLING TO 10-15 PERCENT/ WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK
THIS AFTERNOON. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH...TEMPERATURES DROP AND HUMIDITIES GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        76  35  54  26 /   0   0   0  20
TULIA         76  38  52  26 /   0   0   0  20
PLAINVIEW     77  38  54  29 /   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     81  39  59  31 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       82  39  58  31 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   79  41  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    82  41  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     73  40  56  29 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          83  42  59  31 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     82  45  60  32 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
159
FXUS64 KLUB 201157
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
557 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT...COOL AND RELATIVELY MOIST UPSLOPE WINDS ARE IN PLACE AT
KCDS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THERE REMAINS A SLIM CHANCE OF BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THERE EARLY TODAY. ASIDE FROM THIS...ALL THREE
TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITION TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THIS EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AT KLBB AND KPVW
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT BUT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT KCDS TODAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT EARLY SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP...THOUGH INDICATIONS
ARE MIXED AND WE HAVE ONLY CARRIED FEW/SCT DECK ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AS WEST TEXAS
WILL BE POSITIONED UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WARMTH WILL
COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR A COLD FRONT
TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS.

INITIALLY...EARLY THIS MORNING...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY COOLER
AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS IN PLACE THERE. OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA...BREEZY AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
CAPROCK AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
LOCALLY...AND WE MIX INTO MODEST WINDS ALOFT. WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-
20 KNOTS WILL BECOME COMMON ON THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS FANNING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH LOWER 70S BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR CHILDRESS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HIGH FOR LUBBOCK IS 82 DEGREES...WHICH IF REACHED...WOULD
TIE THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE WHICH WAS SET BACK IN 1996. THE
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ELEVATED THE FIRE DANGER
THIS AFTERNOON /SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS/.

LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZES WILL ENSURE A MILD EVENING...BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR NORTHERN BORDER AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE RACING
SOUTHWARD AND EXITING THE SOUTHERN ZONES WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK.
PRESSURE RISES AROUND 8 MB/3 HOURS ALONG WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-25 KNOTS FOR A SHORT
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...THERE COULD BE SOME POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS...THOUGH PROGGED MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT TOO
CONVINCING...AND SUGGEST LIMITED COVERAGE/DURATION OF ANY LOW
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
30S...EXCEPT FOR LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

LONG TERM...
..A COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR MASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE FRONT WHICH IN TURN HAS COOLED HIGH
TEMPS SOME SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH OUR SRN ZONES COULD STILL MAKE 60
DEGREES OR SO BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. DOWNSTREAM OVER WTX...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR AND AS A RESULT WE SHOULD SEE
LOW CLOUDS START TO FILL IN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DURING THIS
PERIOD WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO THE NRN SPLNS. COLD
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR WILL POUR INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND AS SKIES
TURN CLOUDY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD-PRESSED TO RISE MUCH AT
ALL...HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30F ACROSS THE NORTH AND
SOME HIGH TEMPS COULD BE SET AT MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TWO MINOR WAVES WILL SLIDE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THESE WAVES WILL
PROVIDE PERIODS OF ENHANCED LIFT AND PERHAPS INCREASED PRECIP
RATES AND COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY THE SECOND WAVE. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DWINDLE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THAT SECOND WAVE. PRECIP TYPE APPEARS
TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PERIODS OF SLEET. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
SHOULD SEE A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. AT THIS
TIME WE WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO PRECISELY FORECAST THE AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS OF SNOW/ICE...BUT IN GENERAL...IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF
THE CAPROCK COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND
NW SPLNS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. WE PLAN ON HIGHLIGHTING
THIS WINTER WEATHER IN AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THIS MORNING.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY GET KICKED EAST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM-
RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL
WITH THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM AND WE/VE LIMITED MENTION TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL CARVE OUT A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST AND HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER INTRUSION OF COLD AIR AND MAY SET UP
THE NEXT BOUT OF WINTRY PRECIP LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL CLOSE OUT FEBRUARY ON A COLD NOTE.

FIRE WEATHER...

NEAR RECORD WARMTH /HIGHS FROM THE MID-70S TO MID-80S/...GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS /SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH AT 20 FT/ AND DRY CONDITIONS
/RH VALUES FALLING TO 10-15 PERCENT/ WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK
THIS AFTERNOON. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH...TEMPERATURES DROP AND HUMIDITIES GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        76  35  54  26 /   0   0   0  20
TULIA         76  38  52  26 /   0   0   0  20
PLAINVIEW     77  38  54  29 /   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     81  39  59  31 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       82  39  58  31 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   79  41  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    82  41  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     73  40  56  29 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          83  42  59  31 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     82  45  60  32 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23
784
FXUS64 KLUB 201000
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
400 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...
ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AS WEST TEXAS
WILL BE POSITIONED UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WARMTH WILL
COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR A COLD FRONT
TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS.

INITIALLY...EARLY THIS MORNING...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY COOLER
AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS IN PLACE THERE. OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA...BREEZY AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
CAPROCK AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
LOCALLY...AND WE MIX INTO MODEST WINDS ALOFT. WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-
20 KNOTS WILL BECOME COMMON ON THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS FANNING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH LOWER 70S BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR CHILDRESS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HIGH FOR LUBBOCK IS 82 DEGREES...WHICH IF REACHED...WOULD
TIE THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE WHICH WAS SET BACK IN 1996. THE
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ELEVATED THE FIRE DANGER
THIS AFTERNOON /SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS/.

LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZES WILL ENSURE A MILD EVENING...BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR NORTHERN BORDER AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE RACING
SOUTHWARD AND EXITING THE SOUTHERN ZONES WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK.
PRESSURE RISES AROUND 8 MB/3 HOURS ALONG WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-25 KNOTS FOR A SHORT
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...THERE COULD BE SOME POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS...THOUGH PROGGED MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT TOO
CONVINCING...AND SUGGEST LIMITED COVERAGE/DURATION OF ANY LOW
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
30S...EXCEPT FOR LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...
...A COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR MASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE FRONT WHICH IN TURN HAS COOLED HIGH
TEMPS SOME SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH OUR SRN ZONES COULD STILL MAKE 60
DEGREES OR SO BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. DOWNSTREAM OVER WTX...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR AND AS A RESULT WE SHOULD SEE
LOW CLOUDS START TO FILL IN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DURING THIS
PERIOD WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO THE NRN SPLNS. COLD
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR WILL POUR INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND AS SKIES
TURN CLOUDY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD-PRESSED TO RISE MUCH AT
ALL...HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30F ACROSS THE NORTH AND
SOME HIGH TEMPS COULD BE SET AT MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TWO MINOR WAVES WILL SLIDE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THESE WAVES WILL
PROVIDE PERIODS OF ENHANCED LIFT AND PERHAPS INCREASED PRECIP
RATES AND COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY THE SECOND WAVE. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DWINDLE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THAT SECOND WAVE. PRECIP TYPE APPEARS
TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PERIODS OF SLEET. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
SHOULD SEE A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. AT THIS
TIME WE WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO PRECISELY FORECAST THE AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS OF SNOW/ICE...BUT IN GENERAL...IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF
THE CAPROCK COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND
NW SPLNS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. WE PLAN ON HIGHLIGHTING
THIS WINTER WEATHER IN AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THIS MORNING.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY GET KICKED EAST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM-
RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL
WITH THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM AND WE/VE LIMITED MENTION TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL CARVE OUT A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST AND HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER INTRUSION OF COLD AIR AND MAY SET UP
THE NEXT BOUT OF WINTRY PRECIP LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL CLOSE OUT FEBRUARY ON A COLD NOTE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NEAR RECORD WARMTH /HIGHS FROM THE MID-70S TO MID-80S/...GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS /SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH AT 20 FT/ AND DRY CONDITIONS
/RH VALUES FALLING TO 10-15 PERCENT/ WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK
THIS AFTERNOON. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH...TEMPERATURES DROP AND HUMIDITIES GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        76  35  54  26 /   0   0   0  20
TULIA         76  38  52  26 /   0   0   0  20
PLAINVIEW     77  38  54  29 /   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     81  39  59  31 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       82  39  58  31 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   79  41  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    82  41  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     73  40  56  29 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          83  42  59  31 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     82  45  60  32 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33
560
FXUS64 KLUB 200545
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR. ONLY CHANGE WITH THIS SET OF TAFS WAS TO BOOST WESTERLY
WINDS TO 15-25 KNOTS AT LBB AND PVW BY MIDDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS AT CDS BY 12Z AS A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF MOIST ELY WINDS UNFOLDS...BUT MAJORITY OF MODELS DISCOUNT THIS
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
901
FXUS64 KLUB 192344
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
544 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR THRU FRI WITH LIGHTER S-SW WINDS THAN TODAY /BECMG
LGT AND VRB AT CDS AROUND 12Z/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LEE TROUGHING HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE HAVE SEEN THE RESULTS OF THIS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS IS DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR THANKS TO WEAK COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
AND DRYING FROM THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE EVEN WITH THIN CIRRUS DRIFTING OVER THE REGION. A FEW
MINUTES OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE STATE
LINE IN NEW MEXICO AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BUT THESE WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW CRITICAL VALUES. WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO FALL OFF AFTER SUNSET BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THEM DROP
QUITE AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT AS WIND RETURNS TO THE SOUTH AROUND 10
MPH AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS.

TOMORROW WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY THANKS TO A MORE
WESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE WIND WHICH WILL GIVE A BOOST TO DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS.  HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE ON THE INCREASE A BIT AS WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWS SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE ALOFT PUSHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.  THIS SHOULD NOT BE TOO THICK AND WILL
DO LITTLE TO LIMIT INSOLATION THROUGH THE DAY.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
A BIT LOWER HOWEVER WHICH IS GOOD NEWS FROM A FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
POINT OF VIEW AS MOST OF THE CAPROCK WILL SEE MINIMUM RH VALUES
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  ONLY TRICKY AREA WILL BE
THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE
LOW RESULTING IN WEAK NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.  THIS
SHOULD HOLD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND MAY KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...RELATIVELY COOL
COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL BE IN THE 80S.  THIS
WILL BE THE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO FALL LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH NW FLOW ALOFT HAVING VEERED
TO NEAR ZONAL...COURTESY OF UA TROUGHING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. A
PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE SAID UA TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE/CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...WHILST
CONCURRENTLY A 1045 MB SFC RIDGE OOZES SOUTH FROM CANADA TO ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE FINALLY COME IN
LINE WRT THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC RIDGE...WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW-MID ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE RATHER DRY
HENCE THE LACK OF QPF SIGNALS ALONG THE FRONT...THOUGH LIGHT PRECIP
IS NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH
IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING PIECE OF ENERGY.
HOWEVER...INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC RIDGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE OVERLY STRONG...BUT N-NE SFC WINDS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF
INCREASING INTO THE 15-20 MPH RANGE. THE AIRMASS THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE USHERING IN WILL BE RATHER CHILLY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING
BELOW 0 C BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE -4 C TO -10 C RANGE BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

N-NE SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO AN E-NE UPSLOPE COMPONENT BY SATURDAY
EVENING WHICH WILL AID IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
FURTHERMORE...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIGHT QPF WILL ALSO BE ON
THE INCREASE INITIALLY ACROSS THE NRN AND NRWN ZONES SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...AND TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT A FEW EMBEDDED
IMPULSES PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FA ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY ALSO BE
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LIGHT PRECIP /THE GFS IS MOST
BULLISH AND STRONGEST WITH THE IMPULSES/. WITH RATHER COLD AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE...A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW WILL
LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTN. THE NEXT
CONCERN WILL OF COURSE BE HOW MUCH WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LACK
OF A SUBSTANTIAL LARGE SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM AND HENCE RELYING
ON ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND RELATIVELY WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
LEADS ONE TO LEAN TOWARDS PRECIP AMOUNTS BEING RATHER LIGHT.
THOUGH IF THE GFS IS CORRECT IN DISPLAYING STRONGER EMBEDDED
IMPULSES...PRECIP AMOUNTS COULD BE MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SRN ZONES. MEANWHILE...THE OTHER
PIECE OF THE UA TROUGH IS EXHIBITED TO PINCH OFF A BIT FROM THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC FLOW AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS
CALI...BEFORE FINALLY EJECTING EAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS MID TO LATE WEEK /ALL THE WHILE OPENING UP INTO
A WEAK WAVE/. WHETHER IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE
ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES IS HARD TO SAY ATTM. DEPENDING ON WHICH
MODEL SOLUTION IS BEING ANALYZED...SOME DISPLAY PRECIP CHANCES AND
OTHERS DO NOT.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY HAVE BEEN FINED TUNED GIVEN BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE FROPA/S TIMING...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH A FEW 60S
ACROSS THE SRN ZONES. THEREAFTER...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AND
40S SUNDAY AND INTO THE 20S AND 30S ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL REBOUND
INTO THE 40S AND 50S TUESDAY-THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S AND 30S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY MORNING /TEENS AND
20S/...DUE TO THE COLDEST AIR SETTLING IN DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93

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