Area Forecast Discussion
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068
FXUS64 KLUB 190916
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
416 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE TRIFECTA IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS
THANKS TO MOISTURE ALOFT SOURCING THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND TROPICAL STORM POLO OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST...AS WELL AS GULF MOISTURE FEEDING THE
LOW LEVELS. UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH PWATS OF NEAR 2 INCHES WILL BE
IN PLACE AHEAD OF PLENTY OF UPPER LIFT OWING TO UPPER ENERGY
REMAINING FROM ODILE. THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE AREAS TO THE EAST
SEE INCREASING CHANCES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE/WATER VAPOR
SHOW AN APPRECIABLE DRY POCKET IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL SEE THIS ERODE AND SATURATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

PERSISTENT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS FALLING AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT MAINTAINED
THUNDER MENTION AS MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE NOTHING SHORT OF
IMPRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER SUPPORT. IMPRESSIVE OMEGA FIELDS
THROUGHOUT THE DEPTHS OF A SATURATED TROPOSPHERE WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES AND A
LACK OF DIABATIC HEATING AS TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING
PLAINS AS LIFT OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA. THOSE ATTENDING HIGH
SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES AND OTHER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD EXPECT
TO SEE RAIN AT SOME TIME THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. PLEASE KEEP THIS
IN MIND WHEN DRIVING HOME IN THE DARK AS ALREADY SATURATED SOIL
WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER AND FLOODING ON AREA
ROADWAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
BY SATURDAY MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE THE REMAINS OF T.C. ODILE
LOCATED PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.
CALIFORNIA LOW ADVECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...TRAPPED UNDER A RIDGE WITH A TRAILING TROUGH APPROACHING
US LATE TUESDAY.  AT THIS POINT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
BAJA WHILE ANOTHER STRONG LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE PACIFIC NW
BEFORE STALLING UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.  BY NEXT SATURDAY...LOW MAY
APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS GIVING US ANOTHER SHOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.  GIVEN THE PATTERN...AM A BIT
SURPRISED THAT MOS HAS COME IN CLOSER TO 50 PCT POPS.  WILL KEEP THE
LIKELY TO DEFINITE CATEGORY GOING FOR THE EAST.  SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
A BIT LESS IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF LIFT THOUGH THERE SHOULD EASILY BE
SOME STORMS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST AS THE REMNANT DEPRESSION
SINKS TOWARD THE DAVIS MTNS.  WHAT REDUCES POPS IN THE NORTHEAST IS
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HELP FILTER A BIT LESS JUICY AIR INTO
THE AREA.  WITH PWATS STAYING QUITE JUICY INTO MONDAY...SEE LITTLE
REASON TO TOTALLY DRY THINGS OUT YET.  IN FACT ECM MOS KEEPS
RESPECTABLE POPS GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. THAT SAID...
GIVEN THE ECMWF PENCHANT FOR OVERZEALOUS POP FCSTS OUT
HERE...WILL KEEP POPS SILENT BEYOND DAY 5.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        68  64  74  63  79 /  90  80  40  30  40
TULIA         72  65  73  65  82 /  80  80  50  40  30
PLAINVIEW     72  65  74  65  80 /  80  80  60  50  40
LEVELLAND     71  65  75  65  75 /  90  80  50  50  50
LUBBOCK       73  65  75  65  77 /  90  80  60  50  40
DENVER CITY   71  65  76  66  75 / 100  80  60  40  50
BROWNFIELD    72  66  76  66  75 /  90  80  60  50  60
CHILDRESS     82  69  79  67  86 /  60  90  70  40  30
SPUR          78  67  78  67  82 /  80  90  70  60  40
ASPERMONT     79  68  83  69  84 /  70  90  70  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

31/26

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