Area Forecast Discussion
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766
FXUS64 KLUB 240938
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
438 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH NWLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN
FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY SWD THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE FCST AREA BY
15Z. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...BUT NOT
AS HIGH AS THE 40-50 MPH GUSTS SEEN ACROSS ERN COLORADO AS THE FRONT
PASSED THERE. SFC ANALYSES SHOW PRESSURE RISES DECREASING IN
INTENSITY WITH MODELS SHOWING A FURTHER DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE OF
PRESSURE RISES MOVING SWD. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. WINDS TO COME BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT BUT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. WILL RUN NEAR COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH DRY AND CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED REALM CONTINUES TO FEATURE A POWERFUL NEGATIVE TILT
TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS LOW CUTS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST AND UNDERGOES
SLOW FILLING. ALREADY BY FRIDAY...MODIFIED RETURN FLOW WILL BE
FOUND ADVECTING NORTH INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD HELP DEFINE A
DRYLINE ACROSS THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND
LARGELY SCANT INSTABILITY FROM THIS PREMATURE MOISTURE RETURN DOES
NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIP CHANCES COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.
THIS STORY SHOULD CHANGE BY SAT AFTN AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AS
THE EFFECTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ARE FELT OVER THE WHOLE
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CONCERN SAT AFTN IS
WHETHER THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. DEEP MIXING ALONE ON THE
DRYLINE IS USUALLY NOT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AND MORE IMPORTANTLY
MAINTAIN STORMS. IDEALLY WE PREFER TO SEE BACKGROUND SUPPORT OR
OTHER SURFACE BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER MODELS DO SHOW SUBTLE HEIGHT
FALLS BY 00Z THAT COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO A LOW-END COVERAGE OF
STORMS BY LATE IN THE AFTN. AM BIASING THE AFTERNOON/S DRYLINE
POSITION A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN THE NAM AND GFS WOULD HAVE US
BELIEVE GIVEN BACKING UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE DAY AND PRESSURE
FALLS BULLSEYEING TO OUR WEST.

OTHERWISE...THE BETTER BET FOR STORMS SHOULD EMERGE SAT NIGHT AS THE
DRYLINE RETREATS NEAR/ONTO THE CAPROCK AND COLLIDES WITH A PACIFIC
FRONT. THESE SETUPS ARE NOT ALWAYS A GUARANTEE THAT STORMS WILL
DEVELOP...BUT CONSIDERING WE HAVE A DEEPENING NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH
ALONG WITH RICH PWATS EAST OF THE DRYLINE...THE PROS OUTWEIGH THE
CONS FOR A ROUND OF STRONG /IF NOT SEVERE/ NOCTURNAL STORMS. ECMWF
AND GEM ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT DARE RETREAT THE DRYLINE
AGGRESSIVELY IN THIS PATTERN BY SAT NIGHT...BUT WE NEED ONLY LOOK
BACK TO THE EVENING OF 4/14/2012 WHEN THE GFS AND NAM FAILED
MISERABLY TO ANTICIPATE A STRONG WESTWARD ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE
IN A SIMILAR PATTERN.

THE PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY
AHEAD INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WESTERLY FLOW. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO
TREND WINDS HIGHER BY SUN AFTN...BUT THESE SPEEDS ARE STILL SHORT
OF THE STRONGEST VALUES PROGGED BY MEX. THE WEAKER ECMWF MOS WOULD
BE NICE IF IT VERIFIED...BUT THE PATTERN OF A DEEPENING LOW TO
OUR NORTH AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW SUGGEST OTHERWISE. HIGH WIND
CRITERIA MAY SPARE THE REGION AS THE 700MB AND 500MB AVERAGE JET
CORES ARE NOT ENTIRELY UP TO THEIR RESPECTIVE 60 KNOT AND 100 KNOT
SPEEDS WE TYPICALLY LOOK FOR...BUT THE GFS IS THE MOST BULLISH MODEL
IN THIS REGARD AND SUGGESTS OUR NWRN COUNTIES COULD SEE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE. BLOWING DUST IS A GIVEN REGARDLESS
OF WHAT MODEL ONE USES. THIS DEEP WESTERLY FLOW THEN VEERS NORTHERLY
BY TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW...BUT WE/RE NOT
YET INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE STRONG NORTH WINDS AS PROGGED BY THE
GFS FROM MON-WED...SO A BREEZY COMPROMISE WITH THE ECMWF IS THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  45  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         74  44  87  54  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     76  48  87  57  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     77  50  88  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       77  50  89  60  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   78  50  87  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    78  51  88  59  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     78  49  88  61  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
SPUR          81  52  89  60  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
ASPERMONT     80  50  90  62  91 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93

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