Area Forecast Discussion
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944
FXUS64 KLUB 231746
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1246 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
LARGE PATCH OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS SLOWLY ERODING BUT LIKELY TO PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
FOR MANY AREAS. WE UPDATED EARLIER IN THE SHIFT ALREADY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATE EROSION. BELIEVE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB QUICKLY
ONCE THE CLOUDS ERODE SO CHOSE NOT TO UPDATE MAXIMUMS FOR TODAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATUS TRENDS WITH IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS REMAIN PRIMARY
ISSUE. SLOW EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER KLBB ALTHOUGH THESE
FINALLY SHOULD DISSOLVE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FOR THE MOST PART.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING EARLY TONIGHT MAY
LEAD TO EARLY VISIBILITY DROP OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF KLBB BEFORE SURFACE FLOW VEERS AND DRIES SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. BEST STRATUS SIGNALS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TONIGHT ARE IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS SOUTH OF KCDS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT THAT
RESTRICTIONS MAY EXTEND NORTH INTO KCDS OR WEST TO KLBB. WE WILL
INDICATE ONLY A MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT KCDS TONIGHT FOR
NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
KLBB IS MORE OR LESS AN ISLAND SURROUNDED BY IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH STRATUS EVIDENT LESS THAN 15 NM SW OF
THE TERMINAL. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE
TERMINAL THOUGH TIMING HAS BEEN QUITE ELUSIVE. KCDS IS CURRENTLY
BELOW MINIMUMS. BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO VFR BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.  FOG POTENTIAL EXISTS AT BOTH SITES AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AS A
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
OVERALL...THINGS ARE SETTLING DOWN TO BE TRANQUIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STRATUS DECK WHICH CAME IN LAST EVENING SHOULD SLOWLY SCATTER OUT
LATER THIS MORNING LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY.  GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS
AND FAIR SKIES WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...IT SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ISSUES.

LONG TERM...
THE EXITING OF THE UA TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
THE FA YESTERDAY...WILL MAKE WAY FOR AN UA RIDGE THAT WILL DRIFT
EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND THRU THE WEEKEND.
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS PROMOTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA
RIDGE COUPLED WITH S-SW SFC WINDS WILL SET US UP FOR DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S /OR SOME 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORM/.

BY SUNDAY...THE UA RIDGE WILL COMMENCE TO SKIRT EAST OF THE
REGION...COURTESY OF A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE AND
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT WILL BE A DEEPENING
NEARBY SFC TROUGH THUS PROMOTING BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS ON SUNDAY
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
PER THE GFS. WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRECIP IS ALSO DEPICTED TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF ALSO MOVES THE
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PHASE WITH THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...WHILST TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE DISTURBANCE LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCE DEPICTED BY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INHERITED
/NONMENTIONABLE/ POPS OF 10-15 PERCENT APPEARS REASONABLE ATTM. WHAT
IS AGREED UPON HOWEVER IS THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL DROP TEMPS BACK BELOW NORM EARLY
NEXT WEEK /60S AND 70S/ AND EITHER AID IN ADDITIONAL PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT /PER THE ECMWF/ OR KEEP BEST PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FA /PER THE GFS/.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHERE A COOL
PATTERN WILL ENSUE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE /PER
THE GFS/ OR FLATTENED UA RIDGING GIVING WAY TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS /PER THE ECMWF/. DIFFICULT TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION
WILL COME INTO FRUITION. THE INHERITED FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
COOLER SOLUTION /HIGHS TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 60S AND 70S/ AND
HENCE...WILL HOLD ON TO THIS THOUGHT PROCESS AND AWAIT MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  82  50  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         51  84  52  84  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  83  53  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  83  54  83  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       56  84  56  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   55  82  55  82  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    56  84  55  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  89  57  89  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          58  86  57  85  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  86  59  86  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99/05

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