Area Forecast Discussion
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955
FXUS64 KLUB 201751
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1151 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
TRICKY TAF FORECAST WITH THIN STRATUS EROSION UNDERWAY AND RINSE
REPEAT CYCLE ON FOR REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS
HIGHER DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO ADVECT NORTH OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A QUICK END
TO MVFR/IFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK AT KLBB AND KPVW SITES RESPECTIVELY WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT KCDS THROUGH END OF PERIOD WHERE
MOISTURE REMAINS. ONSET OF STRATUS APPEARS TO OCCUR RATHER
UNIFORMLY BUT VEERING SURFACE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF LOW
CIGS ON THE CAPROCK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE BACK EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ON TRACK TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY AHEAD OF STEADY SWLY WINDS.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING...LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET ARE AGAIN
SATURATED WITH SOME DENSE FOG IN ERN NM AND THE PERMIAN BASIN
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A BROAD STRATUS SHIELD. PROVIDED STRATUS
DOES NOT LOWER TO THE DECK...WE FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE DENSE FOG
WILL SPARE THE REGION THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE
STRATUS IS 1-2K FEET THINNER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...SO THIS SHOULD BODE WELL FOR AN EARLIER ONSET OF CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND SECURE MILDER TEMPS THAN
FRIDAY.

THE LARGER PICTURE TODAY AND TONIGHT PAINTS AN IMPRESSIVE SPLIT
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PROGGED TO REACH WEST TX AROUND MIDNIGHT. ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL SERVE TO POSITION A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
THE TX-NM BORDER BY 06Z...SO SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MORE
VEERED THAN IN PAST NIGHTS. IMPLIED UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT
ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT SHOULD BEGIN MIXING OUT FROM
WEST-EAST BEHIND THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH...LIKELY CLEARING
OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT HANG ON AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL HELP
TO KEEP HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE SURFACE TROF AXIS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS HELPING TO KEEP DRIER
AIR IN PLACE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MONDAY WILL BE A BIT TRICKY
AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
POSSIBLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS HAS THE
FRONT ALMOST THROUGH OUR AREA...ECMWF STALLS IT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE AREA...AND THE NAM HAS IT UP
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SO...WHEREVER THE FRONT WILL END UP
WILL DETERMINE WHAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.
REGARDLESS...READINGS SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE MAY HAVE A QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
STRONG JET WILL DIVE DOWN ACROSS THE BACK SIDE OF A BROAD TROF
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AS THIS JET DIGS SOUTH...THE
TROF WILL DEEPEN ALOFT AND SHARPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS WITH THE
FRONT. LIFT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE...STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT...AND COUPLING WITH STRONG LIFT WITH
THE DEEPENING TROF ARE LOOKING TO ALL BE IN PLACE AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOW MUCH WILL FALL AND WHAT TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
BUT EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS AND FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO START OFF
ALL LIQUID. AS STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT TAKES PLACE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS AT THE SURFACE...PROFILES MAY MANAGE TO SLIDE
BELOW FREEZING. THIS MEANS WE COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOME AREAS OF ALL SNOW. AGAIN...
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME WITH THE EXPECTATION
OF TRACE AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY WILL BE 10-12 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THANKS TO THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH
CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH THE ECMWF NOW BRINGING ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WOULD PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WHICH MAY BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 60S WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE GFS
IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TROF...CARRYING IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS US. THIS TOO PRODUCES
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WIND FOR CHRISTMAS DAY BUT SPEEDS ARE NOT AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF. BEYOND THAT...ECMWF DUMPS A PRETTY COLD AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH OF THE COLD
AIR. WILL KEEP THINGS IN LINE WITH THE SUPERBLEND AS OPPOSED TO
LEANING TOWARDS ONE MODEL OR THE OTHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        23  59  35  62  29 /   0   0   0   0  30
TULIA         28  59  35  61  31 /   0   0   0   0  30
PLAINVIEW     30  59  36  63  31 /   0   0   0   0  30
LEVELLAND     28  61  38  64  32 /   0   0   0   0  20
LUBBOCK       32  61  37  64  33 /   0   0   0   0  30
DENVER CITY   31  63  37  67  33 /   0   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    31  63  38  66  33 /   0   0   0   0  20
CHILDRESS     35  57  37  65  36 /  10   0   0   0  20
SPUR          35  63  40  65  36 /   0   0   0   0  20
ASPERMONT     38  62  41  67  38 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/24

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