Area Forecast Discussion
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350
FXUS64 KLUB 131151
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
551 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE AGAIN AFFECTING THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. KCDS HAS RECENTLY IMPROVED TO MVFR...WHERE IT MAY STAY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT KLBB AND KPVW WERE MIRED IN LIFR.
KLBB AND KPVW SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT LATE THIS MORNING WITH A
RETURN TO VFR BY AROUND MIDDAY. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
SOME FOG WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT...WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THOUGH THE
PERIOD...BECOMING A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WE ARE SEEING A RATHER FAMILIAR START TO THE DAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG...BUT THINGS WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO CHANGE AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT AND PROVIDES A SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS.

BEFORE THEN...SOUTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE TO SUPPLY SHALLOW BUT RICH
MOISTURE INTO WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. DENSE FOG HAS HELD
FIRM IN KCDS EARLY TODAY...THOUGH WE HAVE ALSO SEEN OCCASIONAL DENSE
FOG AT KLBB AND KHOB...AND WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK /IN ADDITION TO
THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES/. THE FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...AND THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 16Z. AFTER
THE CLOUDY/FOGGY START...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG ON MUCH OF
THE DAY AROUND CHILDRESS. EVEN SO...MOST SPOTS SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES PEAKING WELL INTO THE 60S...WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER 70S
POSSIBLE WHERE MORE INSOLATION IS REALIZED. AS HAS ALREADY BEEN THE
CASE TODAY...WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS TODAY AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS CYCLOGENESIS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENT CHURNING OVER THE GREAT BASIN CLOSES OFF
AND MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH NEW MEXICO.

THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE IN PLACE
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND WE WILL SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP. WE COULD SEE SOME FOG TOO...THOUGH THE
STRONGER WINDS MAY TEND TO TEMPER THAT A BIT. IN ADDITION...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REALLY RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT AS LARGE
SCALE ASCENT INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG SYSTEM AND A
PACIFIC FRONT PROVIDES AN ADDED LOW-LEVEL FOCUS. IT APPEARS A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL APPROACH THE TX/NM STATE
LINE SOMETIME AROUND 06Z...THEN SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WE HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES...WHERE THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE...WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
COUPLED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY /MUCAPES OF 250-750 J/KG/ AND
STEEPING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE ACTIVITY WILL RACE
EASTWARD...SO RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE RATHER LOW. THE BREEZY AND
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY BE SCOURED
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY

LONG TERM...
YESTERDAY/S CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM REGARDING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
FOR THE UPCOMING AND FOLLOWING WEEK HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A MORE
PESSIMISTIC PERSPECTIVE...DRIVEN MAINLY BY THE ECMWF/S BIG SHIFT
FROM SHOWING A SERIES OF CUT-OFF LOWS MOVING FROM THE DESERT SW
INTO THE SRN PLAINS...TO MUCH WEAKER OPEN WAVES. STILL...AS THESE
SYSTEMS ARE STILL IN THE DEVELOPMENT STAGES OVER THE
PACIFIC...THERE IS STILL TIME FOR GUIDANCE TO BOUNCE BACK TO
PROGGING MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS.

BUT BEFORE ALL THAT...WE/LL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE FIRST STORM
SYSTEM ON THE FRONT-END OF THE EXTENDED. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT SCATTERED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY...PERHAPS A
SQUALL-LINE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING NEWD FROM THE EASTERN SOUTH
PLAINS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. THERE COULD STILL
BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE CHILDRESS AREA AROUND
NOON...BEFORE THE ACTION SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. GUSTY
SW-W WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING UPWARD WITH THE WIND SPEEDS...WHICH COULD
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVEL ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN
SPLNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE PACIFIC-TYPE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO A COOL AND FOG-FREE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. COOLER /NEAR SEASONAL NORMS/ AND DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY...AND SHOULD BRING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WAVE MAY BE SPLIT
INTO TWO PIECES...ONE PASSING OVERHEAD LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND
THE OTHER LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD CERTAINLY
CHANGE. IF THIS VERIFIES...IT APPEARS THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FIRST WAVE...AS A COLD FRONT WITH NW-NORTH WINDS
MAY DRIVE OUT MUCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEFORE THE SECOND
WAVE ARRIVES. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE SECOND
ROUND COULD MAKE IT EASIER TO WRING OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SWITCHING TO LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AS TEMPS
SHOULD DIP BELOW FREEZING. AS IT STANDS NOW...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
COULD THREATEN THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY VERY LOW IN THE PARTICULARS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  39  56  29  50 /   0  60  20   0   0
TULIA         68  46  57  31  52 /   0  60  20   0   0
PLAINVIEW     67  47  58  31  53 /  10  60  20   0   0
LEVELLAND     68  45  58  32  54 /   0  50  20   0   0
LUBBOCK       67  48  60  34  54 /  10  50  20   0   0
DENVER CITY   67  44  61  33  56 /   0  50  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    66  46  60  33  54 /   0  50  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     65  52  62  37  56 /  10  30  60   0  10
SPUR          66  50  64  36  57 /  10  30  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     68  53  66  39  58 /  10  20  40   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>036-039>042.

&&

$$

23/33/23

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