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594
FXUS64 KLUB 160849
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
ODILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY WITH
ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EWD FROM IT. MODELS
PROG A MODEST UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX EJECTING ACROSS SRN NEW MEXICO.
IT IS HARD TO VERIFY THAT AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE MOISTURE
DOWNSTREAM FROM ODILE. THAT DISTURBANCE WILL BE WORKING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODEST JET STREAK...
THE JET STREAK MOVING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PULL UP
STATIONARY ACROSS THE FCST THIS MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST LIFT OVER THE SWRN TO SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES
FAVORING HIGHEST POPS THERE WHILE THE NERN ZONES GETTING THE SHORT
END OF THE STICK...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH INGREDIENTS THERE TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FCST. PROGGED MLCAPE VALUES THIS AFTN MAINLY IN A
RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG BUT SPREAD OUT FAIRLY EVENLY THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING SUGGESTS SHOWERS
FAVORED BUT THUNDER NOT RULED OUT. FINALLY...WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THAT WILL BE LEAST
LIKELY TO WORK OUT ACROSS THE NERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO BE THINNEST AND RAIN CHANCES THE LEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE DOMINATING ACROSS THE GULF REGION IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
WEST TO NEAR FAR SWRN TX/NERN OLD MEXICO BY MID-WEEK...THUS CAUSING
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE DESERT SW. OUR PERSISTENT
FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL GO UNDISTURBED...AS PACIFIC
MOISTURE TRANSLATED AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UA RIDGE TO ACROSS THE REGION...AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CAUSE PWATS TO GO ON THE RISE /1.20-1.80
INCHES BY MID-WEEK/. ODILE IS PROGGED TO GET SWEPT BY WESTERLIES
ALOFT...AND EVOLVE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLES REGION BY LATE WEEK. THUS...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE...COUPLED WITH A PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
TO RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK /HIGHEST POPS NOTED THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION/. WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP EXITS THE REGION IS A BIT
QUESTIONABLE AS LONG TERM SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH THE DISTURBANCE/S
SPEED. THE GFS QUICKLY PUSHES THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
EAST OF THE FA BY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CLEAR THE SRN ZONES BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS THIS FRONT BEING A FOCUS FOR PRECIP...THOUGH THE SRN
AND ERN ZONES ARE HIGHLY FAVORED. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER-HAND IS A
TAD SLOWER...AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...LEADING TO LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE CWA. THE
ECMWF IN GENERAL TENDS TO BE A BIT BETTER IN PREDICTING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM THAN THE GFS.
THUS...WILL ELECT TO MAINTAIN POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN.

HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. AS SUCH...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  61  81  60  79 /  30  20  20  20  30
TULIA         78  62  83  62  80 /  30  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     78  63  81  62  79 /  30  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     76  65  78  63  78 /  40  20  30  30  40
LUBBOCK       78  66  79  65  79 /  40  20  30  20  40
DENVER CITY   73  65  76  63  76 /  40  30  50  40  40
BROWNFIELD    75  66  78  65  78 /  40  20  40  30  40
CHILDRESS     83  67  86  66  86 /  20  20  20  20  20
SPUR          81  67  83  67  82 /  40  20  30  20  30
ASPERMONT     83  70  84  69  84 /  40  20  30  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29
594
FXUS64 KLUB 160849
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
ODILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY WITH
ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EWD FROM IT. MODELS
PROG A MODEST UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX EJECTING ACROSS SRN NEW MEXICO.
IT IS HARD TO VERIFY THAT AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE MOISTURE
DOWNSTREAM FROM ODILE. THAT DISTURBANCE WILL BE WORKING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODEST JET STREAK...
THE JET STREAK MOVING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PULL UP
STATIONARY ACROSS THE FCST THIS MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST LIFT OVER THE SWRN TO SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES
FAVORING HIGHEST POPS THERE WHILE THE NERN ZONES GETTING THE SHORT
END OF THE STICK...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH INGREDIENTS THERE TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FCST. PROGGED MLCAPE VALUES THIS AFTN MAINLY IN A
RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG BUT SPREAD OUT FAIRLY EVENLY THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING SUGGESTS SHOWERS
FAVORED BUT THUNDER NOT RULED OUT. FINALLY...WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THAT WILL BE LEAST
LIKELY TO WORK OUT ACROSS THE NERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO BE THINNEST AND RAIN CHANCES THE LEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE DOMINATING ACROSS THE GULF REGION IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
WEST TO NEAR FAR SWRN TX/NERN OLD MEXICO BY MID-WEEK...THUS CAUSING
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE DESERT SW. OUR PERSISTENT
FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL GO UNDISTURBED...AS PACIFIC
MOISTURE TRANSLATED AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UA RIDGE TO ACROSS THE REGION...AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CAUSE PWATS TO GO ON THE RISE /1.20-1.80
INCHES BY MID-WEEK/. ODILE IS PROGGED TO GET SWEPT BY WESTERLIES
ALOFT...AND EVOLVE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLES REGION BY LATE WEEK. THUS...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE...COUPLED WITH A PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
TO RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK /HIGHEST POPS NOTED THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION/. WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP EXITS THE REGION IS A BIT
QUESTIONABLE AS LONG TERM SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH THE DISTURBANCE/S
SPEED. THE GFS QUICKLY PUSHES THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
EAST OF THE FA BY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CLEAR THE SRN ZONES BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS THIS FRONT BEING A FOCUS FOR PRECIP...THOUGH THE SRN
AND ERN ZONES ARE HIGHLY FAVORED. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER-HAND IS A
TAD SLOWER...AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...LEADING TO LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE CWA. THE
ECMWF IN GENERAL TENDS TO BE A BIT BETTER IN PREDICTING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM THAN THE GFS.
THUS...WILL ELECT TO MAINTAIN POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN.

HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. AS SUCH...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  61  81  60  79 /  30  20  20  20  30
TULIA         78  62  83  62  80 /  30  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     78  63  81  62  79 /  30  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     76  65  78  63  78 /  40  20  30  30  40
LUBBOCK       78  66  79  65  79 /  40  20  30  20  40
DENVER CITY   73  65  76  63  76 /  40  30  50  40  40
BROWNFIELD    75  66  78  65  78 /  40  20  40  30  40
CHILDRESS     83  67  86  66  86 /  20  20  20  20  20
SPUR          81  67  83  67  82 /  40  20  30  20  30
ASPERMONT     83  70  84  69  84 /  40  20  30  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29
347
FXUS64 KLUB 160442
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE WAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF LOW
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY AT KCDS...WHERE WE HAVE ADDED A TEMPO MVFR
GROUP. WE HAVE KEPT KLBB VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED. SCATTERED -TSRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY IMPACT KLBB...WITH A
LOWER LIKELIHOOD AT KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA...ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND REMOVED
THUNDER MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT IN OUR SRN COUNTIES...OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS....BUT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND ALSO BRIEF LOWER
VISIBILITIES WITH SHRA OR TSRA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. ALSO...SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUES MORNING
BUT WE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY BUT CLOUD BASES HAVE
GRADUALLY LIFTED.  A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAVE
EVEN SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
HAS BEEN SOCKED IN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FURTHER NORTH...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT IS RAPIDLY
LOSING MOMENTUM AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS
MORNING.  MODELS GRADUALLY SLIDE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MIXING IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER CHANGE IS THAT MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  LOOKING AT VARIOUS POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE MODELS...THERE
IS ANYWHERE FROM 500-1250 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAP BY THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE EITHER TO HELP INITIATE STORMS SO COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE LOW END OF SCATTERED AT BEST.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT THIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT IMPACT POP CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT SO MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.  ONLY
DIFFERENCE MAY BE A FEW COOLER SPOTS WHEREVER RAINFALL CAN DEVELOP.
HIGHS TOMORROW MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE CAN MANAGE TO GET
ANY KIND OF INSOLATION BUT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWS THAT THIS WILL
BE HARD TO ACHIEVE.  KEPT TEMPS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MOISTURE FROM THIS PREVIOUS WEEKENDS RAINFALL STILL LINGERS AROUND
THE FA WHILE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO
WEST TX. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL COME FROM A LOBE
OF VORTICITY THAT PINCHES OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND SETTLES OVER
NM AND WEST TEXAS. THE ONLY OTHER LIFT BEFORE THE FROPA LATER THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. WITH THAT SAID THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE IS VERY ABUNDANT. AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...PWATS RARELY GO BELOW 1.6 INCHES AND
REGULARLY STAY AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING BUT THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES PRE FROPA OCCUR BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ODILE IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS THAT REMAINS IS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND SWIFTLY PUSHES IT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT BY
HAVING IT SPEND THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FULLY MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WOULD PROVIDE MORE TIME TO ALLOW SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED
WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE STAYED IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE ECMWF. DESPITE  THE
DIFFERENCES...THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY PATTERN WE HAVE
BEEN IN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  61  81  59 /  20  30  20  20  10
TULIA         62  79  63  83  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     60  78  63  81  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     61  77  63  78  63 /  40  40  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  77  66  79  64 /  40  40  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   62  77  63  76  63 /  40  40  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    61  78  64  78  64 /  40  40  30  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  68  86  66 /  30  30  20  20  20
SPUR          64  79  65  83  67 /  40  40  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  83  68  84  69 /  40  40  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
347
FXUS64 KLUB 160442
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE WAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF LOW
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY AT KCDS...WHERE WE HAVE ADDED A TEMPO MVFR
GROUP. WE HAVE KEPT KLBB VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED. SCATTERED -TSRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY IMPACT KLBB...WITH A
LOWER LIKELIHOOD AT KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA...ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND REMOVED
THUNDER MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT IN OUR SRN COUNTIES...OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS....BUT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND ALSO BRIEF LOWER
VISIBILITIES WITH SHRA OR TSRA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. ALSO...SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUES MORNING
BUT WE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY BUT CLOUD BASES HAVE
GRADUALLY LIFTED.  A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAVE
EVEN SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
HAS BEEN SOCKED IN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FURTHER NORTH...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT IS RAPIDLY
LOSING MOMENTUM AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS
MORNING.  MODELS GRADUALLY SLIDE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MIXING IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER CHANGE IS THAT MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  LOOKING AT VARIOUS POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE MODELS...THERE
IS ANYWHERE FROM 500-1250 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAP BY THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE EITHER TO HELP INITIATE STORMS SO COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE LOW END OF SCATTERED AT BEST.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT THIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT IMPACT POP CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT SO MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.  ONLY
DIFFERENCE MAY BE A FEW COOLER SPOTS WHEREVER RAINFALL CAN DEVELOP.
HIGHS TOMORROW MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE CAN MANAGE TO GET
ANY KIND OF INSOLATION BUT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWS THAT THIS WILL
BE HARD TO ACHIEVE.  KEPT TEMPS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MOISTURE FROM THIS PREVIOUS WEEKENDS RAINFALL STILL LINGERS AROUND
THE FA WHILE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO
WEST TX. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL COME FROM A LOBE
OF VORTICITY THAT PINCHES OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND SETTLES OVER
NM AND WEST TEXAS. THE ONLY OTHER LIFT BEFORE THE FROPA LATER THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. WITH THAT SAID THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE IS VERY ABUNDANT. AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...PWATS RARELY GO BELOW 1.6 INCHES AND
REGULARLY STAY AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING BUT THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES PRE FROPA OCCUR BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ODILE IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS THAT REMAINS IS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND SWIFTLY PUSHES IT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT BY
HAVING IT SPEND THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FULLY MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WOULD PROVIDE MORE TIME TO ALLOW SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED
WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE STAYED IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE ECMWF. DESPITE  THE
DIFFERENCES...THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY PATTERN WE HAVE
BEEN IN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  61  81  59 /  20  30  20  20  10
TULIA         62  79  63  83  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     60  78  63  81  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     61  77  63  78  63 /  40  40  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  77  66  79  64 /  40  40  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   62  77  63  76  63 /  40  40  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    61  78  64  78  64 /  40  40  30  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  68  86  66 /  30  30  20  20  20
SPUR          64  79  65  83  67 /  40  40  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  83  68  84  69 /  40  40  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
605
FXUS64 KLUB 160219 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
919 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA...ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND REMOVED
THUNDER MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT IN OUR SRN COUNTIES...OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS....BUT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND ALSO BRIEF LOWER
VISIBILITIES WITH SHRA OR TSRA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. ALSO...SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUES MORNING
BUT WE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY BUT CLOUD BASES HAVE
GRADUALLY LIFTED.  A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAVE
EVEN SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
HAS BEEN SOCKED IN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FURTHER NORTH...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT IS RAPIDLY
LOSING MOMENTUM AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS
MORNING.  MODELS GRADUALLY SLIDE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MIXING IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER CHANGE IS THAT MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  LOOKING AT VARIOUS POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE MODELS...THERE
IS ANYWHERE FROM 500-1250 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAP BY THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE EITHER TO HELP INITIATE STORMS SO COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE LOW END OF SCATTERED AT BEST.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT THIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT IMPACT POP CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT SO MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.  ONLY
DIFFERENCE MAY BE A FEW COOLER SPOTS WHEREVER RAINFALL CAN DEVELOP.
HIGHS TOMORROW MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE CAN MANAGE TO GET
ANY KIND OF INSOLATION BUT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWS THAT THIS WILL
BE HARD TO ACHIEVE.  KEPT TEMPS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MOISTURE FROM THIS PREVIOUS WEEKENDS RAINFALL STILL LINGERS AROUND
THE FA WHILE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO
WEST TX. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL COME FROM A LOBE
OF VORTICITY THAT PINCHES OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND SETTLES OVER
NM AND WEST TEXAS. THE ONLY OTHER LIFT BEFORE THE FROPA LATER THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. WITH THAT SAID THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE IS VERY ABUNDANT. AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...PWATS RARELY GO BELOW 1.6 INCHES AND
REGULARLY STAY AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING BUT THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES PRE FROPA OCCUR BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ODILE IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS THAT REMAINS IS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND SWIFTLY PUSHES IT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT BY
HAVING IT SPEND THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FULLY MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WOULD PROVIDE MORE TIME TO ALLOW SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED
WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE STAYED IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE ECMWF. DESPITE  THE
DIFFERENCES...THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY PATTERN WE HAVE
BEEN IN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  61  81  59 /  20  30  20  20  10
TULIA         62  79  63  83  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     60  78  63  81  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     61  77  63  78  63 /  40  40  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  77  66  79  64 /  40  40  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   62  77  63  76  63 /  40  40  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    61  78  64  78  64 /  40  40  30  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  68  86  66 /  30  30  20  20  20
SPUR          64  79  65  83  67 /  40  40  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  83  68  84  69 /  40  40  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/31
394
FXUS64 KLUB 152341
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
641 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS....BUT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND ALSO BRIEF LOWER
VISIBILITIES WITH SHRA OR TSRA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. ALSO...SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUES MORNING
BUT WE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY BUT CLOUD BASES HAVE
GRADUALLY LIFTED.  A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAVE
EVEN SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
HAS BEEN SOCKED IN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FURTHER NORTH...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT IS RAPIDLY
LOSING MOMENTUM AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS
MORNING.  MODELS GRADUALLY SLIDE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MIXING IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER CHANGE IS THAT MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  LOOKING AT VARIOUS POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE MODELS...THERE
IS ANYWHERE FROM 500-1250 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAP BY THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE EITHER TO HELP INITIATE STORMS SO COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE LOW END OF SCATTERED AT BEST.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT THIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT IMPACT POP CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT SO MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.  ONLY
DIFFERENCE MAY BE A FEW COOLER SPOTS WHEREVER RAINFALL CAN DEVELOP.
HIGHS TOMORROW MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE CAN MANAGE TO GET
ANY KIND OF INSOLATION BUT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWS THAT THIS WILL
BE HARD TO ACHIEVE.  KEPT TEMPS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MOISTURE FROM THIS PREVIOUS WEEKENDS RAINFALL STILL LINGERS AROUND
THE FA WHILE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO
WEST TX. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL COME FROM A LOBE
OF VORTICITY THAT PINCHES OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND SETTLES OVER
NM AND WEST TEXAS. THE ONLY OTHER LIFT BEFORE THE FROPA LATER THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. WITH THAT SAID THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE IS VERY ABUNDANT. AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...PWATS RARELY GO BELOW 1.6 INCHES AND
REGULARLY STAY AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING BUT THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES PRE FROPA OCCUR BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ODILE IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS THAT REMAINS IS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND SWIFTLY PUSHES IT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT BY
HAVING IT SPEND THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FULLY MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WOULD PROVIDE MORE TIME TO ALLOW SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED
WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE STAYED IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE ECMWF. DESPITE  THE
DIFFERENCES...THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY PATTERN WE HAVE
BEEN IN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  61  81  59 /  30  30  20  20  10
TULIA         62  79  63  83  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     60  78  63  81  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     61  77  63  78  63 /  40  40  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  77  66  79  64 /  40  40  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   62  77  63  76  63 /  40  40  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    61  78  64  78  64 /  40  40  30  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  68  86  66 /  30  30  20  20  20
SPUR          64  79  65  83  67 /  40  40  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  83  68  84  69 /  40  40  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
543
FXUS64 KLUB 152033
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
333 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY BUT CLOUD BASES HAVE
GRADUALLY LIFTED.  A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAVE
EVEN SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
HAS BEEN SOCKED IN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FURTHER NORTH...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT IS RAPIDLY
LOSING MOMENTUM AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS
MORNING.  MODELS GRADUALLY SLIDE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MIXING IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER CHANGE IS THAT MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  LOOKING AT VARIOUS POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE MODELS...THERE
IS ANYWHERE FROM 500-1250 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAP BY THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE EITHER TO HELP INITIATE STORMS SO COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE LOW END OF SCATTERED AT BEST.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT THIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT IMPACT POP CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT SO MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.  ONLY
DIFFERENCE MAY BE A FEW COOLER SPOTS WHEREVER RAINFALL CAN DEVELOP.
HIGHS TOMORROW MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE CAN MANAGE TO GET
ANY KIND OF INSOLATION BUT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWS THAT THIS WILL
BE HARD TO ACHIEVE.  KEPT TEMPS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

JORDAN


&&

.LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MOISTURE FROM THIS PREVIOUS WEEKENDS RAINFALL STILL LINGERS AROUND
THE FA WHILE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO
WEST TX. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL COME FROM A LOBE
OF VORTICITY THAT PINCHES OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND SETTLES OVER
NM AND WEST TEXAS. THE ONLY OTHER LIFT BEFORE THE FROPA LATER THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. WITH THAT SAID THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE IS VERY ABUNDANT. AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...PWATS RARELY GO BELOW 1.6 INCHES AND
REGULARLY STAY AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING BUT THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES PRE FROPA OCCUR BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ODILE IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS THAT REMAINS IS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND SWIFTLY PUSHES IT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT BY
HAVING IT SPEND THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FULLY MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WOULD PROVIDE MORE TIME TO ALLOW SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED
WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE STAYED IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE ECMWF. DESPITE  THE
DIFFERENCES...THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY PATTERN WE HAVE
BEEN IN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  61  81  59 /  30  30  20  20  10
TULIA         62  79  63  83  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     60  78  63  81  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     61  77  63  78  63 /  40  40  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  77  65  79  64 /  40  40  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   62  77  63  76  63 /  40  40  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    61  78  64  78  64 /  40  40  30  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  68  86  66 /  30  30  20  20  20
SPUR          64  79  65  83  67 /  40  40  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  83  68  84  69 /  40  40  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/51
910
FXUS64 KLUB 151726 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. MVFR
CEILINGS AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING AND MAY MAKE
IT TO VFR BY MID-AFTERNOON. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEFORE MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME. SKIES ARE TRYING TO CLEAR
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION AND SHOWERS/STORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...TIMING AND LOCATION ARE VERY UNCERTAIN AND
COULD NOT PINPOINT A MORE FAVORED TIME FOR STORMS IN THE FIRST 6-9
HOURS OF THE TAFS. SECOND ISSUES IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SWING THE WIND AROUND TO
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND COULD BE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PREVAILING
TSRA GOING IN THE TAFS FOR NOW BUT AM UNSURE HOW LONG TO KEEP THEM
GOING. CEILINGS WILL ALSO RETURN TO THE MVFR RANGE WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF IFR IN AND AROUND ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL KEEP
VFR FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED WANING -SHRA WERE NOTED SOUTH OF KCDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...MOVING OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. COMPUTER MODELS HINT
AT ADDITIONAL -SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING...WHICH
MAY AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES. HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED A PROB30 FOR
THIS PLAUSIBILITY. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO NEAR KCDS AND PERHAPS BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
-SHRA/-TSRA FOR BOTH TAF SITES. OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY
APPEARS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE AND THEREFORE A PREVAILING MENTION
HAS BEEN INSERTING FOR BOTH TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...FEW-SCT MVFR
CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPED AT KLBB...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE ODILE...CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING...LEADING TO BKN-OVC SKY COVER AND ENDURING MOIST
LOW LEVELS /PWATS OF 1.30-1.60 INCHES/. LOOKING CLOSER AT THE
SFC...COURTESY OF YESTERDAY/S PASSING EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE /AND
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS/...LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS PER
0730Z RADAR ANALYSIS. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WRT THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY...AS IT EITHER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST THUS EXITING THE FA OR THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY WANE AS ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY RE-GENERATES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS AFTN. WILL TEND TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE LATTER OUTCOME...AS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CAN NOT BE IGNORED. FURTHERMORE...WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
LOOK OUT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING...GIVEN TEMP-DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS OF 1-3 DEGREES C NOTED ACROSS THE FA. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT
SW WIND COMPONENT OCCURRING AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS COULD KEEP FOG
POTENTIAL AT BAY /ESPECIALLY IF THIS WIND COMPONENT DOES INDEED HOLD
UP/.

FORECAST SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS EVENING...AS THE FRONT/S SPEED AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA ARE WHAT MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD
TIME WITH DECIPHERING. WITH THAT SAID...A BLEND OF CONSENSUS APPEARS
TO BE IN ORDER WHICH LEADS TO THE COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON THE NRN
ZONES BETWEEN 03Z-06Z...AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE AREA/RETREATING
NORTH THEREAFTER. THIS FRONT COULD SERVE AS A MESOSCALE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION...COUPLED WITH THE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING-TONIGHT. DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY
WARMER DAY /UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THE CAPROCK TO LOWER 80S OFF
THE CAPROCK/. AS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BRIEF CLOUD BREAKS DURING
THE AFTN WILL ALSO AID IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMPS COMING INTO
FRUITION.

LONG TERM...
WILL BE TRENDING THE FORECAST WETTER AND COOLER THIS MORNING. GOOD
RAIN CHANCES STILL IN THE PICTURE TUESDAY AS HURRICANE ODILE MOVES
UP BAJA CALIFORNIA KEEPING A TAP OF RICH MOISTURE DIRECTED EASTWARD...
AS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE 4-CORNERS TO THE GULF COAST WEAKENS...
AND AS AN UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF A RETREATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY SHOULD STILL SEE A HIATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 4-CORNERS AND CNTL
ROCKIES AMPLIFIES HELPING DRY SOME DRIER MID LEVEL SWD... IN TURN
SHUNTING THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM ODILE SWD. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SWRN FCST AREA WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES THERE.

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD CONTINUES TO LACK SOME
CLARITY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN...BUT
CONSISTENCY AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE ARE PROGGED TO BE KICKED EWD AS A TROUGH COMES ONTO THE
PACIFIC COAST IN TURN MOVING THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE EWD ONTO THE
PLAINS THURSDAY THEN TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY. AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DESERT SW THURSDAY AND THE
PANHANDLE FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A WET PERIOD ACROSS THE FCST AREA THAT
TIME FRAME. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEST COAST TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS THEN
COMING UP QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE DURATION OF THE WEEKEND. THAT
WOULD KEEP SWLY WINDS ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. AS LUCK WOULD HAVE IT THE HURRICANE
CENTER IS EXPECTING A DEPRESSION WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO DEVELOP
INTO A NAMED STORM THAT WOULD THEN TRAVEL NWWD PARALLEL TO THE
MEXICAN COAST AND IN TURN ADDING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA...PER
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A COLD
FRONT INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL WHICH WOULD
HELP HEIGHTEN PRECIP CHANCES BY ADDING A LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND/OR AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. STILL A LOT THAT COULD GO WRONG IN RELATION TO
RAIN CHANCES...BUT CANNOT PICK A DOWN PERIOD THIS WEEK AND HAVE
THUS INSERTED POPS INTO EACH PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  59  78  61  81 /  20  30  30  20  20
TULIA         80  60  78  63  83 /  20  30  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     80  61  77  63  81 /  20  40  40  20  20
LEVELLAND     80  62  76  63  78 /  20  40  40  20  20
LUBBOCK       80  64  76  65  79 /  20  40  40  20  20
DENVER CITY   80  63  76  63  76 /  20  40  40  30  30
BROWNFIELD    80  63  77  64  78 /  20  40  40  30  30
CHILDRESS     83  65  82  68  86 /  30  40  30  20  20
SPUR          82  65  78  65  83 /  30  40  40  20  20
ASPERMONT     83  67  82  68  84 /  30  40  40  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
556
FXUS64 KLUB 151121
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED WANING -SHRA WERE NOTED SOUTH OF KCDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...MOVING OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. COMPUTER MODELS HINT
AT ADDITIONAL -SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING...WHICH
MAY AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES. HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED A PROB30 FOR
THIS PLAUSIBILITY. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO NEAR KCDS AND PERHAPS BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
-SHRA/-TSRA FOR BOTH TAF SITES. OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY
APPEARS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE AND THEREFORE A PREVAILING MENTION
HAS BEEN INSERTING FOR BOTH TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...FEW-SCT MVFR
CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPED AT KLBB...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE ODILE...CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING...LEADING TO BKN-OVC SKY COVER AND ENDURING MOIST
LOW LEVELS /PWATS OF 1.30-1.60 INCHES/. LOOKING CLOSER AT THE
SFC...COURTESY OF YESTERDAY/S PASSING EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE /AND
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS/...LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS PER
0730Z RADAR ANALYSIS. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WRT THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY...AS IT EITHER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST THUS EXITING THE FA OR THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY WANE AS ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY RE-GENERATES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS AFTN. WILL TEND TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE LATTER OUTCOME...AS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CAN NOT BE IGNORED. FURTHERMORE...WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
LOOK OUT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING...GIVEN TEMP-DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS OF 1-3 DEGREES C NOTED ACROSS THE FA. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT
SW WIND COMPONENT OCCURRING AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS COULD KEEP FOG
POTENTIAL AT BAY /ESPECIALLY IF THIS WIND COMPONENT DOES INDEED HOLD
UP/.

FORECAST SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS EVENING...AS THE FRONT/S SPEED AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA ARE WHAT MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD
TIME WITH DECIPHERING. WITH THAT SAID...A BLEND OF CONSENSUS APPEARS
TO BE IN ORDER WHICH LEADS TO THE COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON THE NRN
ZONES BETWEEN 03Z-06Z...AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE AREA/RETREATING
NORTH THEREAFTER. THIS FRONT COULD SERVE AS A MESOSCALE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION...COUPLED WITH THE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING-TONIGHT. DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY
WARMER DAY /UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THE CAPROCK TO LOWER 80S OFF
THE CAPROCK/. AS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BRIEF CLOUD BREAKS DURING
THE AFTN WILL ALSO AID IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMPS COMING INTO
FRUITION.

LONG TERM...
WILL BE TRENDING THE FORECAST WETTER AND COOLER THIS MORNING. GOOD
RAIN CHANCES STILL IN THE PICTURE TUESDAY AS HURRICANE ODILE MOVES
UP BAJA CALIFORNIA KEEPING A TAP OF RICH MOISTURE DIRECTED EASTWARD...
AS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE 4-CORNERS TO THE GULF COAST WEAKENS...
AND AS AN UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF A RETREATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY SHOULD STILL SEE A HIATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 4-CORNERS AND CNTL
ROCKIES AMPLIFIES HELPING DRY SOME DRIER MID LEVEL SWD... IN TURN
SHUNTING THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM ODILE SWD. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SWRN FCST AREA WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES THERE.

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD CONTINUES TO LACK SOME
CLARITY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN...BUT
CONSISTENCY AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE ARE PROGGED TO BE KICKED EWD AS A TROUGH COMES ONTO THE
PACIFIC COAST IN TURN MOVING THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE EWD ONTO THE
PLAINS THURSDAY THEN TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY. AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DESERT SW THURSDAY AND THE
PANHANDLE FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A WET PERIOD ACROSS THE FCST AREA THAT
TIME FRAME. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEST COAST TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS THEN
COMING UP QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE DURATION OF THE WEEKEND. THAT
WOULD KEEP SWLY WINDS ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. AS LUCK WOULD HAVE IT THE HURRICANE
CENTER IS EXPECTING A DEPRESSION WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO DEVELOP
INTO A NAMED STORM THAT WOULD THEN TRAVEL NWWD PARALLEL TO THE
MEXICAN COAST AND IN TURN ADDING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA...PER
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A COLD
FRONT INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL WHICH WOULD
HELP HEIGHTEN PRECIP CHANCES BY ADDING A LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND/OR AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. STILL A LOT THAT COULD GO WRONG IN RELATION TO
RAIN CHANCES...BUT CANNOT PICK A DOWN PERIOD THIS WEEK AND HAVE
THUS INSERTED POPS INTO EACH PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  59  78  61  81 /  20  30  30  20  20
TULIA         80  60  78  63  83 /  20  30  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     80  61  77  63  81 /  20  40  40  20  20
LEVELLAND     80  62  76  63  78 /  20  40  40  20  20
LUBBOCK       80  64  76  66  79 /  20  40  40  20  20
DENVER CITY   80  63  76  63  76 /  20  40  40  30  30
BROWNFIELD    80  63  77  64  78 /  20  40  40  30  30
CHILDRESS     83  65  82  68  86 /  30  40  30  20  20
SPUR          82  65  78  65  83 /  30  40  40  20  20
ASPERMONT     83  67  82  68  84 /  30  40  40  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
348
FXUS64 KLUB 150758
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
258 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE ODILE...CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING...LEADING TO BKN-OVC SKY COVER AND ENDURING MOIST
LOW LEVELS /PWATS OF 1.30-1.60 INCHES/. LOOKING CLOSER AT THE
SFC...COURTESY OF YESTERDAY/S PASSING EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE /AND
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS/...LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS PER
0730Z RADAR ANALYSIS. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WRT THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY...AS IT EITHER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST THUS EXITING THE FA OR THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY WANE AS ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY RE-GENERATES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS AFTN. WILL TEND TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE LATTER OUTCOME...AS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CAN NOT BE IGNORED. FURTHERMORE...WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
LOOK OUT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING...GIVEN TEMP-DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS OF 1-3 DEGREES C NOTED ACROSS THE FA. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT
SW WIND COMPONENT OCCURRING AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS COULD KEEP FOG
POTENTIAL AT BAY /ESPECIALLY IF THIS WIND COMPONENT DOES INDEED HOLD
UP/.

FORECAST SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS EVENING...AS THE FRONT/S SPEED AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA ARE WHAT MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD
TIME WITH DECIPHERING. WITH THAT SAID...A BLEND OF CONSENSUS APPEARS
TO BE IN ORDER WHICH LEADS TO THE COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON THE NRN
ZONES BETWEEN 03Z-06Z...AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE AREA/RETREATING
NORTH THEREAFTER. THIS FRONT COULD SERVE AS A MESOSCALE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION...COUPLED WITH THE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING-TONIGHT. DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY
WARMER DAY /UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THE CAPROCK TO LOWER 80S OFF
THE CAPROCK/. AS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BRIEF CLOUD BREAKS DURING
THE AFTN WILL ALSO AID IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMPS COMING INTO
FRUITION.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WILL BE TRENDING THE FORECAST WETTER AND COOLER THIS MORNING. GOOD
RAIN CHANCES STILL IN THE PICTURE TUESDAY AS HURRICANE ODILE MOVES
UP BAJA CALIFORNIA KEEPING A TAP OF RICH MOISTURE DIRECTED EASTWARD...
AS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE 4-CORNERS TO THE GULF COAST WEAKENS...
AND AS AN UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF A RETREATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY SHOULD STILL SEE A HIATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 4-CORNERS AND CNTL
ROCKIES AMPLIFIES HELPING DRY SOME DRIER MID LEVEL SWD... IN TURN
SHUNTING THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM ODILE SWD. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SWRN FCST AREA WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES THERE.

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD CONTINUES TO LACK SOME
CLARITY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN...BUT
CONSISTENCY AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE ARE PROGGED TO BE KICKED EWD AS A TROUGH COMES ONTO THE
PACIFIC COAST IN TURN MOVING THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE EWD ONTO THE
PLAINS THURSDAY THEN TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY. AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DESERT SW THURSDAY AND THE
PANHANDLE FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A WET PERIOD ACROSS THE FCST AREA THAT
TIME FRAME. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEST COAST TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS THEN
COMING UP QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE DURATION OF THE WEEKEND. THAT
WOULD KEEP SWLY WINDS ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. AS LUCK WOULD HAVE IT THE HURRICANE
CENTER IS EXPECTING A DEPRESSION WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO DEVELOP
INTO A NAMED STORM THAT WOULD THEN TRAVEL NWWD PARALLEL TO THE
MEXICAN COAST AND IN TURN ADDING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA...PER
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A COLD
FRONT INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL WHICH WOULD
HELP HEIGHTEN PRECIP CHANCES BY ADDING A LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND/OR AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. STILL A LOT THAT COULD GO WRONG IN RELATION TO
RAIN CHANCES...BUT CANNOT PICK A DOWN PERIOD THIS WEEK AND HAVE
THUS INSERTED POPS INTO EACH PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  59  78  61  81 /  20  30  30  20  20
TULIA         80  60  78  63  83 /  20  30  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     80  61  77  63  81 /  20  40  40  20  20
LEVELLAND     80  62  76  63  78 /  20  40  40  20  20
LUBBOCK       80  64  76  65  79 /  20  40  40  20  20
DENVER CITY   80  63  76  63  76 /  20  40  40  30  30
BROWNFIELD    80  63  77  64  78 /  20  40  40  30  30
CHILDRESS     83  65  82  68  86 /  30  40  30  20  20
SPUR          82  65  78  65  83 /  30  40  40  20  20
ASPERMONT     83  67  82  68  84 /  30  40  40  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07
545
FXUS64 KLUB 150449
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1149 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014


.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY FORECAST IS TRICKY FOR THIS MORNING. A NUMBER OF
MESONET SITES SOUTH AND WEST OF KLBB ARE INDICATING NEAR SATURATED
CONDITIONS. VISIBILITY THUS FAR HAS REMAINED JUST UNDER 10 SM BUT
SUSPECT THAT REDUCTIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
SPITE OF SLIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT WHICH TENDS TO MITIGATE
FOG PRODUCTION ALONG WITH MODIFICATION OVER THE CITY. AT THIS
POINT...WILL CALL FOR LOW-END MVFR TO DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE. KCDS ON THE OTHER HAND...LOOKS
TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

UPDATE...
CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO LOOK AT BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT SOME MESONET SITES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
LUBBOCK DOWN TO TWO DEGREES OR LESS. IN ADDITION...MESONET LEAF
WETNESS...WHICH IS A PROXY FOR FOG OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...HAS
STARTED TO SPIKE. THEREFORE...WILL ADD MENTION TO OVERNIGHT FOG
ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO BREAK OUT OF THE 60S TODAY WHERE
LOW STRATUS WAS PREVALENT WHICH WAS MOST OF THE CAPROCK. OFF THE
CAPROCK...WHERE LESS LOW STRATUS WAS OBSERVED...TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A SHORTWAVE WAS OBSERVED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING NORTH OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE MOST OPTIMISTIC WITH
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WERE SEEN IN THE GFS WITH
GREATEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH
OTHER MODELS DO SHOW SOME SORT OF SIMILAR FIELDS RESULTING IN
INCREASING LIFT...IT DOES NOT TRANSLATE TO MUCH PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TODAY. MODELS HAVE
NOT PICKED UP WELL ON THE BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
THIS EVENING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE SEVERELY LIMITED ANY SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS PROGGED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...WHICH WAS MOSTLY DUE TO THE NEARLY SATURATED
SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE CONTINUED TO STREAM INTO THE REGION COURTESY
OF HURRICANE ODILE OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO. THIS RESULTED
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 150-200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH THE INTERACTION
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BY EARLY IN THE EVENING...MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE
EVENING HOURS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT EXACTLY INSPIRE ANY
CONFIDENCE IN WHAT EXACTLY WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.
CLOUD COVER AGAIN WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH LESS CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THAN OBSERVED TODAY.

LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY.
BIGGEST CHANGE IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT BREAKING OFF A
LOBE OF INCREASED VORTICITY OFF OF ODILE AND BRINGING THAT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS LOOKS TO ENHANCE LIFT A BIT LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS
MAY HELP ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ABOVE THE CAP. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW ON
HOW THEY ARE HANDLING THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.
AMPLE MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT AND ANY AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR A
FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONTINUED AGREEMENT WITH HOW
THINGS MAY UNFOLD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A TROF SWINGING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
PHASES WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THIS WILL HELP SWING A SLUG OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS PROVIDE FOR QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER. REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL SWING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA AT SOME POINT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH SEVERAL OTHER
WEAKER WAVES AHEAD OF THAT STARTING AS EARLY AS THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TIMING OF THESE WAVES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND HELD OFF INCREASING POPS FOR NOW. PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS AND DID NOT NEED TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THOSE EITHER.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        57  79  58  79  60 /  20  20  30  20  20
TULIA         59  80  60  78  62 /  20  30  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     59  80  61  78  62 /  20  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     60  80  61  78  62 /  20  30  40  30  20
LUBBOCK       61  80  63  79  66 /  20  30  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   59  80  61  77  63 /  20  30  40  40  20
BROWNFIELD    60  80  62  76  62 /  20  30  40  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  65  83  67 /  20  30  30  30  20
SPUR          63  82  64  81  65 /  20  30  40  40  20
ASPERMONT     66  83  67  84  67 /  20  20  40  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
943
FXUS64 KLUB 150228
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
928 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO LOOK AT BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT SOME MESONET SITES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
LUBBOCK DOWN TO TWO DEGREES OR LESS. IN ADDITION...MESONET LEAF
WETNESS...WHICH IS A PROXY FOR FOG OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...HAS
STARTED TO SPIKE. THEREFORE...WILL ADD MENTION TO OVERNIGHT FOG
ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED...PROSPECTS INCREASING FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT KLBB THOUGH
FCST REMAINS TRICKY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE NOT TYPICALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THOUGH WITH THE COPIOUS GROUND
MOISTURE...THIS CERTAINLY HAS POTENTIAL FOR BEING A NON-TYPICAL
SITUATION. MESONET OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS DROPPING
QUICKLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE KLBB TERMINAL AND WILL CONTINUE
ANALYSIS. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR VISIBILITY
WILL DROP.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO BREAK OUT OF THE 60S TODAY WHERE
LOW STRATUS WAS PREVALENT WHICH WAS MOST OF THE CAPROCK. OFF THE
CAPROCK...WHERE LESS LOW STRATUS WAS OBSERVED...TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A SHORTWAVE WAS OBSERVED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING NORTH OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE MOST OPTIMISTIC WITH
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WERE SEEN IN THE GFS WITH
GREATEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH
OTHER MODELS DO SHOW SOME SORT OF SIMILAR FIELDS RESULTING IN
INCREASING LIFT...IT DOES NOT TRANSLATE TO MUCH PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TODAY. MODELS HAVE
NOT PICKED UP WELL ON THE BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
THIS EVENING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE SEVERELY LIMITED ANY SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS PROGGED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...WHICH WAS MOSTLY DUE TO THE NEARLY SATURATED
SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE CONTINUED TO STREAM INTO THE REGION COURTESY
OF HURRICANE ODILE OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO. THIS RESULTED
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 150-200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH THE INTERACTION
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BY EARLY IN THE EVENING...MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE
EVENING HOURS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT EXACTLY INSPIRE ANY
CONFIDENCE IN WHAT EXACTLY WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.
CLOUD COVER AGAIN WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH LESS CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THAN OBSERVED TODAY.

LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY.
BIGGEST CHANGE IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT BREAKING OFF A
LOBE OF INCREASED VORTICITY OFF OF ODILE AND BRINGING THAT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS LOOKS TO ENHANCE LIFT A BIT LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS
MAY HELP ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ABOVE THE CAP. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW ON
HOW THEY ARE HANDLING THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.
AMPLE MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT AND ANY AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR A
FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONTINUED AGREEMENT WITH HOW
THINGS MAY UNFOLD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A TROF SWINGING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
PHASES WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THIS WILL HELP SWING A SLUG OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS PROVIDE FOR QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER. REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL SWING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA AT SOME POINT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH SEVERAL OTHER
WEAKER WAVES AHEAD OF THAT STARTING AS EARLY AS THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TIMING OF THESE WAVES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND HELD OFF INCREASING POPS FOR NOW. PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS AND DID NOT NEED TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THOSE EITHER.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        57  79  58  79  60 /  20  20  30  20  20
TULIA         59  80  60  78  62 /  20  30  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     59  80  61  78  62 /  20  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     60  80  61  78  62 /  20  30  40  30  20
LUBBOCK       61  80  63  79  66 /  20  30  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   59  80  61  77  63 /  20  30  40  40  20
BROWNFIELD    60  80  62  76  62 /  20  30  40  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  65  83  67 /  20  30  30  30  20
SPUR          63  82  64  81  65 /  20  30  40  40  20
ASPERMONT     66  83  67  84  67 /  20  20  40  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
211
FXUS64 KLUB 142334
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
634 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE KLBB TERMINAL WITH
SLOWLY RISING CEILINGS. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE NIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY COME INTO
PLAY LATER THIS EVENING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEFLY LOWER
CONDITIONS DUE INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE AT KCDS...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO BREAK OUT OF THE 60S TODAY WHERE
LOW STRATUS WAS PREVALENT WHICH WAS MOST OF THE CAPROCK. OFF THE
CAPROCK...WHERE LESS LOW STRATUS WAS OBSERVED...TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A SHORTWAVE WAS OBSERVED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING NORTH OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE MOST OPTIMISTIC WITH
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WERE SEEN IN THE GFS WITH
GREATEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH
OTHER MODELS DO SHOW SOME SORT OF SIMILAR FIELDS RESULTING IN
INCREASING LIFT...IT DOES NOT TRANSLATE TO MUCH PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TODAY. MODELS HAVE
NOT PICKED UP WELL ON THE BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
THIS EVENING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE SEVERELY LIMITED ANY SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS PROGGED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...WHICH WAS MOSTLY DUE TO THE NEARLY SATURATED
SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE CONTINUED TO STREAM INTO THE REGION COURTESY
OF HURRICANE ODILE OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO. THIS RESULTED
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 150-200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH THE INTERACTION
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BY EARLY IN THE EVENING...MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE
EVENING HOURS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT EXACTLY INSPIRE ANY
CONFIDENCE IN WHAT EXACTLY WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.
CLOUD COVER AGAIN WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH LESS CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THAN OBSERVED TODAY.

LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY.
BIGGEST CHANGE IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT BREAKING OFF A
LOBE OF INCREASED VORTICITY OFF OF ODILE AND BRINGING THAT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS LOOKS TO ENHANCE LIFT A BIT LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS
MAY HELP ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ABOVE THE CAP. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW ON
HOW THEY ARE HANDLING THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.
AMPLE MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT AND ANY AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR A
FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONTINUED AGREEMENT WITH HOW
THINGS MAY UNFOLD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A TROF SWINGING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
PHASES WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THIS WILL HELP SWING A SLUG OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS PROVIDE FOR QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER. REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL SWING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA AT SOME POINT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH SEVERAL OTHER
WEAKER WAVES AHEAD OF THAT STARTING AS EARLY AS THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TIMING OF THESE WAVES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND HELD OFF INCREASING POPS FOR NOW. PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS AND DID NOT NEED TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THOSE EITHER.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        57  79  58  79  60 /  20  20  30  20  20
TULIA         59  80  60  78  62 /  20  30  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     59  80  61  78  62 /  20  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     60  80  61  78  62 /  20  30  40  30  20
LUBBOCK       61  80  63  79  66 /  20  30  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   59  80  61  77  63 /  20  30  40  40  20
BROWNFIELD    60  80  62  76  62 /  20  30  40  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  65  83  67 /  20  30  30  30  20
SPUR          63  82  64  81  65 /  20  30  40  40  20
ASPERMONT     66  83  67  84  67 /  20  20  40  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
332
FXUS64 KLUB 142033
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
333 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO BREAK OUT OF THE 60S TODAY WHERE
LOW STRATUS WAS PREVALENT WHICH WAS MOST OF THE CAPROCK. OFF THE
CAPROCK...WHERE LESS LOW STRATUS WAS OBSERVED...TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A SHORTWAVE WAS OBSERVED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING NORTH OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE MOST OPTIMISTIC WITH
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WERE SEEN IN THE GFS WITH
GREATEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH
OTHER MODELS DO SHOW SOME SORT OF SIMILAR FIELDS RESULTING IN
INCREASING LIFT...IT DOES NOT TRANSLATE TO MUCH PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TODAY. MODELS HAVE
NOT PICKED UP WELL ON THE BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
THIS EVENING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE SEVERELY LIMITED ANY SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS PROGGED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...WHICH WAS MOSTLY DUE TO THE NEARLY SATURATED
SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE CONTINUED TO STREAM INTO THE REGION COURTESY
OF HURRICANE ODILE OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO. THIS RESULTED
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 150-200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH THE INTERACTION
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BY EARLY IN THE EVENING...MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE
EVENING HOURS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT EXACTLY INSPIRE ANY
CONFIDENCE IN WHAT EXACTLY WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.
CLOUD COVER AGAIN WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH LESS CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THAN OBSERVED TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY.
BIGGEST CHANGE IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT BREAKING OFF A
LOBE OF INCREASED VORTICITY OFF OF ODILE AND BRINGING THAT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS LOOKS TO ENHANCE LIFT A BIT LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS
MAY HELP ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ABOVE THE CAP. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW ON
HOW THEY ARE HANDLING THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.
AMPLE MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT AND ANY AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR A
FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONTINUED AGREEMENT WITH HOW
THINGS MAY UNFOLD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A TROF SWINGING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
PHASES WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THIS WILL HELP SWING A SLUG OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS PROVIDE FOR QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER. REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL SWING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA AT SOME POINT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH SEVERAL OTHER
WEAKER WAVES AHEAD OF THAT STARTING AS EARLY AS THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TIMING OF THESE WAVES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND HELD OFF INCREASING POPS FOR NOW. PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS AND DID NOT NEED TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THOSE EITHER.

JORDAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        57  79  58  79  60 /  20  20  30  20  20
TULIA         59  80  60  78  62 /  20  30  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     59  80  61  78  62 /  20  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     60  80  61  78  62 /  20  30  40  30  20
LUBBOCK       61  80  63  79  66 /  20  30  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   59  80  61  77  63 /  20  30  40  40  20
BROWNFIELD    60  80  62  76  62 /  20  30  40  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  65  83  67 /  20  30  30  30  20
SPUR          63  82  64  81  65 /  20  30  40  40  20
ASPERMONT     66  83  67  84  67 /  20  20  40  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14
580
FXUS64 KLUB 141719
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1219 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
A BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NOT HANDLED BY THE MODELS WILL MOVE INTO
THE KLBB TERMINAL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
REPORT LIFR CIGS ALONG WITH MVFR VISBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...AFTER THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PASS...MVFR
CIGS WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LOCALIZED
REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VISBYS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION ANY REDUCTIONS IN THE TAF FOR TONIGHT. CHANCES ARE HIGH
THAT KCDS WILL REMAIN IN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BUT THERE IS
A CHANCE AT REDUCED CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION...
-SHRA HAS PASSED ACROSS KLBB EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL
-SHRA NOTED WELL SOUTH OF THE SAID TAF SITE. THE -SHRA ACTIVITY TO
THE SOUTH COULD AFFECT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A MENTION ATTM. CONFIDENCE
INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVERHEAD AND PROMOTES ADDITIONAL -SHRA/-TSRA CHANCES. HAVE
INSERTED A PROB30 FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AT BOTH TAF SITES...KEYING
IN ON KLBB RECEIVING IT LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND MORE SO THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AT KCDS. OTHERWISE...IFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE
DEVELOPED AT KLBB EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL AS VFR FOG. COULD SEE
THIS PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER...SCT MVFR DECKS
WILL BE COMMON BEFORE RISING TO LOW VFR DECKS BY THE EVENING.
COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPING AT KCDS LATER
THIS MORNING...AND RISING TO LOW VFR BY EARLY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE STRETCHED FROM THE SERN CONUS TO ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...THUS AIDING IN CONTINUING THE ERN
PACIFIC FETCH OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
HURRICANE ODILE AS WELL. AS SUCH...MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED
IN PLACE...WHILST S-SE SFC WINDS PROMOTES ENDURING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.20-1.50 INCHES/. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT A
MODERATELY STRONG EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE SWRN PERIPHERY
OF THE UA RIDGE TO ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS
GENERALLY CARVING A PATH FROM THE SWRN ZONES TO ACROSS THE NERN
ZONES. WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...IT WILL
LIKELY NOT TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE RAINFALL...WITH THUNDER BEING A
POTENTIAL DUE TO DECENT MID-UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE
DISTURBANCE. IN FACT...RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN PER 0730Z RADAR ANALYSIS...WHICH IS A PROMISING
SIGN FOR PRECIP CHANCES LATER TODAY. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS
TO CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE FAR WRN AND SWRN ZONES THIS AFTN...AND
ALSO ACROSS THE NERN ZONES TONIGHT...WHICH FOLLOWS THE PATH OF THE
ANTICIPATED DISTURBANCE.

ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...THOUGH COULD ONCE
AGAIN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREAKS IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY
LATE AFTN. THESE BREAKS IN CLOUDS COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW
SFC WINDS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER DAY /70S ON THE CAPROCK TO 80S OFF
THE CAPROCK/. CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND S-SW SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL MAKE FOR A WARMER NIGHT /UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/.

LONG TERM...
RAIN EVENT STILL ON TRACK MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. STILL
UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE...BUT CERTAINLY LOOKING
LIKE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME. 00Z NAM BEGINNING TO FAVOR SHIFTING
PRECIP MORE QUICKLY SWD TUESDAY AS UPPER FLOW OVER THE CONUS
AMPLIFIES WITH A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS PUSHING DRIER AIR SWD WHILE THE STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW ATTEMPTS TO CUT OFF SOME OF THE ERN
PACIFIC DEEP MOISTURE. STILL...A PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH SOME
UPPER JET INTERACTION AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FCST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT POINTS TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE AND A FURTHER
NUDGING OF POPS UPWARDS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA.

OTHER ISSUE THIS MORNING IS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS
ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW PROGRESSIVE THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL BE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS THAT TAKES A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTL
PLAINS VERY LATE IN THE WEEK. SRN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO LINGER ACROSS THE DESERT SW...POSSIBLY ABSORBING REMNANTS OF
ODILE. THAT POTENTIALLY COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE FCST
AREA FOR THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH
MODEL INCONSISTENCY WILL CONTINUE TO WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL
CONTINUITY AND PASS ON INSERTING POPS ATTM.

TEMPS WILL ALSO BE A BIT UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE REGARDING EXTENT AND ROLE OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH HEIGHT AND THICKNESS PATTERN AND
MAGNITUDE LATE WEEK. HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF RAW
MODEL OUTPUT AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OF MOS OUTPUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        57  80  58  80  60 /  20  20  20  20  20
TULIA         59  81  60  80  62 /  20  20  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     60  81  61  80  62 /  20  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     59  81  61  80  62 /  20  30  40  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  81  63  80  66 /  20  30  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   60  81  61  79  63 /  20  30  40  30  20
BROWNFIELD    61  81  62  80  62 /  20  30  40  40  20
CHILDRESS     64  84  65  84  67 /  30  20  30  30  20
SPUR          63  83  64  82  65 /  20  30  40  30  20
ASPERMONT     66  84  67  84  67 /  20  30  40  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
315
FXUS64 KLUB 141120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
-SHRA HAS PASSED ACROSS KLBB EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL
-SHRA NOTED WELL SOUTH OF THE SAID TAF SITE. THE -SHRA ACTIVITY TO
THE SOUTH COULD AFFECT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A MENTION ATTM. CONFIDENCE
INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVERHEAD AND PROMOTES ADDITIONAL -SHRA/-TSRA CHANCES. HAVE
INSERTED A PROB30 FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AT BOTH TAF SITES...KEYING
IN ON KLBB RECEIVING IT LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND MORE SO THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AT KCDS. OTHERWISE...IFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE
DEVELOPED AT KLBB EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL AS VFR FOG. COULD SEE
THIS PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER...SCT MVFR DECKS
WILL BE COMMON BEFORE RISING TO LOW VFR DECKS BY THE EVENING.
COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPING AT KCDS LATER
THIS MORNING...AND RISING TO LOW VFR BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE STRETCHED FROM THE SERN CONUS TO ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...THUS AIDING IN CONTINUING THE ERN
PACIFIC FETCH OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
HURRICANE ODILE AS WELL. AS SUCH...MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED
IN PLACE...WHILST S-SE SFC WINDS PROMOTES ENDURING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.20-1.50 INCHES/. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT A
MODERATELY STRONG EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE SWRN PERIPHERY
OF THE UA RIDGE TO ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS
GENERALLY CARVING A PATH FROM THE SWRN ZONES TO ACROSS THE NERN
ZONES. WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...IT WILL
LIKELY NOT TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE RAINFALL...WITH THUNDER BEING A
POTENTIAL DUE TO DECENT MID-UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE
DISTURBANCE. IN FACT...RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN PER 0730Z RADAR ANALYSIS...WHICH IS A PROMISING
SIGN FOR PRECIP CHANCES LATER TODAY. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS
TO CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE FAR WRN AND SWRN ZONES THIS AFTN...AND
ALSO ACROSS THE NERN ZONES TONIGHT...WHICH FOLLOWS THE PATH OF THE
ANTICIPATED DISTURBANCE.

ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...THOUGH COULD ONCE
AGAIN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREAKS IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY
LATE AFTN. THESE BREAKS IN CLOUDS COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW
SFC WINDS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER DAY /70S ON THE CAPROCK TO 80S OFF
THE CAPROCK/. CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND S-SW SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL MAKE FOR A WARMER NIGHT /UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/.

LONG TERM...
RAIN EVENT STILL ON TRACK MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. STILL
UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE...BUT CERTAINLY LOOKING
LIKE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME. 00Z NAM BEGINNING TO FAVOR SHIFTING
PRECIP MORE QUICKLY SWD TUESDAY AS UPPER FLOW OVER THE CONUS
AMPLIFIES WITH A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS PUSHING DRIER AIR SWD WHILE THE STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW ATTEMPTS TO CUT OFF SOME OF THE ERN
PACIFIC DEEP MOISTURE. STILL...A PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH SOME
UPPER JET INTERACTION AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FCST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT POINTS TO INCRESING CONFIDENCE AND A FURTHER
NUDGING OF POPS UPWARDS...PATICULARLY FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA.

OTHER ISSUE THIS MORNING IS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS
ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW PROGRESSIVE THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL BE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS THAT TAKES A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTL
PLAINS VERY LATE IN THE WEEK. SRN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO LINGER ACROSS THE DESERT SW...POSSIBLY ABSORBING REMNANTS OF
ODILE. THAT POTENTIALLY COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE FCST
AREA FOR THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH
MODEL INCONSISTENCY WILL CONTINUE TO WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL
CONTINUITY AND PASS ON INSERTING POPS ATTM.

TEMPS WILL ALSO BE A BIT UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE REGARDING EXTENT AND ROLE OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH HEIGHT AND THICKNESS PATTERN AND
MAGNITUDE LATE WEEK. HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF RAW
MODEL OUTPUT AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OF MOS OUTPUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        76  57  80  58  80 /  30  20  20  20  20
TULIA         78  59  81  60  80 /  20  20  20  30  20
PLAINVIEW     76  60  81  61  80 /  20  20  30  30  30
LEVELLAND     74  59  81  61  80 /  20  20  30  40  30
LUBBOCK       75  62  81  64  80 /  20  20  30  40  30
DENVER CITY   71  60  81  61  79 /  30  20  30  40  30
BROWNFIELD    74  61  81  62  80 /  30  20  30  40  40
CHILDRESS     81  64  84  65  84 /  10  30  20  30  30
SPUR          78  63  83  64  82 /  20  20  30  40  30
ASPERMONT     80  66  84  67  84 /  20  20  30  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
441
FXUS64 KLUB 140846
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
346 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN UA RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE STRETCHED FROM THE SERN CONUS TO ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...THUS AIDING IN CONTINUING THE ERN
PACIFIC FETCH OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
HURRICANE ODILE AS WELL. AS SUCH...MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED
IN PLACE...WHILST S-SE SFC WINDS PROMOTES ENDURING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.20-1.50 INCHES/. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT A
MODERATELY STRONG EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE SWRN PERIPHERY
OF THE UA RIDGE TO ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS
GENERALLY CARVING A PATH FROM THE SWRN ZONES TO ACROSS THE NERN
ZONES. WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...IT WILL
LIKELY NOT TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE RAINFALL...WITH THUNDER BEING A
POTENTIAL DUE TO DECENT MID-UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE
DISTURBANCE. IN FACT...RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN PER 0730Z RADAR ANALYSIS...WHICH IS A PROMISING
SIGN FOR PRECIP CHANCES LATER TODAY. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS
TO CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE FAR WRN AND SWRN ZONES THIS AFTN...AND
ALSO ACROSS THE NERN ZONES TONIGHT...WHICH FOLLOWS THE PATH OF THE
ANTICIPATED DISTURBANCE.

ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...THOUGH COULD ONCE
AGAIN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREAKS IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY
LATE AFTN. THESE BREAKS IN CLOUDS COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW
SFC WINDS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER DAY /70S ON THE CAPROCK TO 80S OFF
THE CAPROCK/. CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND S-SW SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL MAKE FOR A WARMER NIGHT /UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/.

&&

.LONG TERM...
RAIN EVENT STILL ON TRACK MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. STILL
UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE...BUT CERTAINLY LOOKING
LIKE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME. 00Z NAM BEGINNING TO FAVOR SHIFTING
PRECIP MORE QUICKLY SWD TUESDAY AS UPPER FLOW OVER THE CONUS
AMPLIFIES WITH A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS PUSHING DRIER AIR SWD WHILE THE STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW ATTEMPTS TO CUT OFF SOME OF THE ERN
PACIFIC DEEP MOISTURE. STILL...A PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH SOME
UPPER JET INTERACTION AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FCST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT POINTS TO INCRESING CONFIDENCE AND A FURTHER
NUDGING OF POPS UPWARDS...PATICULARLY FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA.

OTHER ISSUE THIS MORNING IS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS
ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW PROGRESSIVE THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL BE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS THAT TAKES A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTL
PLAINS VERY LATE IN THE WEEK. SRN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO LINGER ACROSS THE DESERT SW...POSSIBLY ABSORBING REMNANTS OF
ODILE. THAT POTENTIALLY COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE FCST
AREA FOR THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH
MODEL INCONSISTENCY WILL CONTINUE TO WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL
CONTINUITY AND PASS ON INSERTING POPS ATTM.

TEMPS WILL ALSO BE A BIT UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE REGARDING EXTENT AND ROLE OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH HEIGHT AND THICKNESS PATTERN AND
MAGNITUDE LATE WEEK. HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF RAW
MODEL OUTPUT AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OF MOS OUTPUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        76  57  80  58  80 /  30  20  20  20  20
TULIA         78  59  81  60  80 /  20  20  20  30  20
PLAINVIEW     76  60  81  61  80 /  20  20  30  30  30
LEVELLAND     74  59  81  61  80 /  20  20  30  40  30
LUBBOCK       75  62  81  63  80 /  20  20  30  40  30
DENVER CITY   71  60  81  61  79 /  30  20  30  40  30
BROWNFIELD    74  61  81  62  80 /  30  20  30  40  40
CHILDRESS     81  64  84  65  84 /  10  30  20  30  30
SPUR          78  63  83  64  82 /  20  20  30  40  30
ASPERMONT     80  66  84  67  84 /  20  20  30  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07
179
FXUS64 KLUB 140401
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1101 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014


.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND IFR CONDITIONS AT
KLBB LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH CEILING PROBABLY REMAINING IN THE
5OO TO 1000 FT RANGE. AT THIS POINT...BEST IFR CHANCES WILL BE
AFTER 07Z THOUGH AN EARIER ONSET IS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE AROUND MID SUNDAY MORNING. SOME DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KCDS LOOKS TO PRIMARILY
REMAIN VFR THOUGH AN EXCURSION INTO MVFR TERRITORY IS POSSIBLE
TOWARD SUNRISE.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SUNDAY WILL FEEL PLEASANT COMPARED TO ANOTHER RAW DAY TODAY. THERE
WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY FORCING FOR THE REST OF TODAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE MAY STILL OCCUR THIS EVENING BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY.
THE DAYTIME TOMORROW WILL ROUGHLY BE THE SAME AS TODAY WITH
POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER A SHORT WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL NOT LIKELY
AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TOMORROW.
UNTIL THEN...LIFT WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. ABNORMALLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FOR MID SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LESS CLOUDY CONDITIONS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL GARNER SOME RETURN OF INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH CAPES
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE SATURATED SOUNDINGS. MODELS PROG
INSTABILITY VALUES ON THE ORDER OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA ARE SHOWN TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED
WITH LOW STRATUS HANGING INTO THAT AREA FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...
MODELS TAKE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTH TEXAS AND ROTATE
IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE THE
AFOREMENTIONED CAP SOME AND A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE
EXTRA LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SHORTWAVE. COVERAGE IN THE MODELS IS A
BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT THERE STILL IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE. WENT AHEAD AND
INCREASED POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH COINCIDES WITH A ROUGH TRACK OF
THE PROGGED SHORTWAVE.

THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY WITH THE MODELS ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. OUT OF THE 12Z RUNS...
THE NAM WAS THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. THE
ECMWF WAS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TIMING BUT WEAKER WITH THE PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. REGARDLESS...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE
FRONT STARTING TO MIX OUT LATE TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL START
TO TAPER OFF AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE. THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MODELS STRUGGLE
WITH WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE DEEP TROF FORECASTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST AND THE SLOWLY MOVING HURRICANE ODILE. RIDGE WILL
BUILD TO THE WEST OF US BY THURSDAY BUT BEYOND THAT MODELS ARE
REALLY STRUGGLING WITH HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF HAS SLOWED
DOWN THE APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW IT HAD IN THE 00Z RUN AND KEEP
THE RIDGE IN PLACE/CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. GFS NOW FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND SWINGS A TROF OUT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES BY THE SAME TIME FRAME...OPPOSITE OF THE 06Z RUN.
SO...LEFT LAST 3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST ALONE UNTIL WE SEE HOW
THINGS UNFOLD.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  77  57  79  58 /  10  20  10  30  30
TULIA         52  79  59  81  59 /  10  10  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     53  77  60  81  60 /  10  10  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     55  75  60  81  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       57  76  62  80  63 /  10  20  20  20  40
DENVER CITY   55  70  61  81  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    55  73  62  81  63 /  10  20  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     58  81  64  84  64 /  10  10  20  30  40
SPUR          57  77  63  84  66 /  10  10  20  30  40
ASPERMONT     58  80  66  85  67 /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
708
FXUS64 KLUB 132345
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
645 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...
CEILING FCST A BIT TRICKY AT KLBB THIS CYCLE. MOIST NEAR SURFACE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ONTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. THERE APPEARS TO
BE ABOUT A 30 PCT PROBABILITY THAT FLIGHT RULES WILL DROP TO LIFR
THOUGH THE CURRENT DATA SUGGEST THAT MVFR APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO
PERSIST. GIVEN THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF MVFR...WILL STEER THAT
WAY FOR THE TIME BEING THOUGH IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTS
ALOFT...SOME DRIZZLE COULD BRING THINGS DOWN IN A HURRY. BOTTOM
LINE...VFR OPERATIONS SHOULD CONDUCT OPERATIONS SOONER THAN LATER
THIS EVENING AND LOW...BUT NON-ZERO POTENTIAL EXIST FOR IFR
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SUNDAY WILL FEEL PLEASANT COMPARED TO ANOTHER RAW DAY TODAY. THERE
WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY FORCING FOR THE REST OF TODAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE MAY STILL OCCUR THIS EVENING BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY.
THE DAYTIME TOMORROW WILL ROUGHLY BE THE SAME AS TODAY WITH
POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER A SHORT WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL NOT LIKELY
AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TOMORROW.
UNTIL THEN...LIFT WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. ABNORMALLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FOR MID SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LESS CLOUDY CONDITIONS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL GARNER SOME RETURN OF INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH CAPES
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE SATURATED SOUNDINGS. MODELS PROG
INSTABILITY VALUES ON THE ORDER OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA ARE SHOWN TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED
WITH LOW STRATUS HANGING INTO THAT AREA FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...
MODELS TAKE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTH TEXAS AND ROTATE
IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE THE
AFOREMENTIONED CAP SOME AND A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE
EXTRA LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SHORTWAVE. COVERAGE IN THE MODELS IS A
BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT THERE STILL IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE. WENT AHEAD AND
INCREASED POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH COINCIDES WITH A ROUGH TRACK OF
THE PROGGED SHORTWAVE.

THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY WITH THE MODELS ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. OUT OF THE 12Z RUNS...
THE NAM WAS THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. THE
ECMWF WAS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TIMING BUT WEAKER WITH THE PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. REGARDLESS...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE
FRONT STARTING TO MIX OUT LATE TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL START
TO TAPER OFF AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE. THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MODELS STRUGGLE
WITH WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE DEEP TROF FORECASTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST AND THE SLOWLY MOVING HURRICANE ODILE. RIDGE WILL
BUILD TO THE WEST OF US BY THURSDAY BUT BEYOND THAT MODELS ARE
REALLY STRUGGLING WITH HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF HAS SLOWED
DOWN THE APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW IT HAD IN THE 00Z RUN AND KEEP
THE RIDGE IN PLACE/CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. GFS NOW FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND SWINGS A TROF OUT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES BY THE SAME TIME FRAME...OPPOSITE OF THE 06Z RUN.
SO...LEFT LAST 3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST ALONE UNTIL WE SEE HOW
THINGS UNFOLD.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  77  57  79  58 /  10  20  10  30  30
TULIA         52  79  59  81  59 /  10  10  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     53  77  60  81  60 /  10  10  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     55  75  60  81  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       57  76  62  80  63 /  10  20  20  20  40
DENVER CITY   55  70  61  81  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    55  73  62  81  63 /  10  20  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     58  81  64  84  64 /  10  10  20  30  40
SPUR          57  77  63  84  66 /  10  10  20  30  40
ASPERMONT     58  80  66  85  67 /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
847
FXUS64 KLUB 132028
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
328 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SUNDAY WILL FEEL PLEASANT COMPARED TO ANOTHER RAW DAY TODAY. THERE
WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY FORCING FOR THE REST OF TODAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE MAY STILL OCCUR THIS EVENING BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY.
THE DAYTIME TOMORROW WILL ROUGHLY BE THE SAME AS TODAY WITH
POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER A SHORT WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL NOT LIKELY
AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TOMORROW.
UNTIL THEN...LIFT WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. ABNORMALLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FOR MID SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LESS CLOUDY CONDITIONS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL GARNER SOME RETURN OF INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH CAPES
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE SATURATED SOUNDINGS. MODELS PROG
INSTABILITY VALUES ON THE ORDER OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA ARE SHOWN TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED
WITH LOW STRATUS HANGING INTO THAT AREA FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MODELS TAKE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTH TEXAS AND ROTATE
IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE THE
AFOREMENTIONED CAP SOME AND A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE
EXTRA LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SHORTWAVE. COVERAGE IN THE MODELS IS A
BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT THERE STILL IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE. WENT AHEAD AND
INCREASED POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH COINCIDES WITH A ROUGH TRACK OF
THE FORECASTED SHORTWAVE.

THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY WITH THE MODELS ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. OUT OF THE 12Z RUNS...
THE NAM WAS THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. THE
ECMWF WAS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TIMING BUT WEAKER WITH THE PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. REGARDLESS...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE
FRONT STARTING TO MIX OUT LATE TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL START
TO TAPER OFF AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE. THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MODELS STRUGGLE
WITH WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE DEEP TROF FORECASTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST AND THE SLOWLY MOVING HURRICANE ODILE. RIDGE WILL
BUILD TO THE WEST OF US BY THURSDAY BUT BEYOND THAT MODELS ARE
REALLY STRUGGLING WITH HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF HAS SLOWED
DOWN THE APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW IT HAD IN THE 00Z RUN AND KEEP
THE RIDGE IN PLACE/CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. GFS NOW FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND SWINGS A TROF OUT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES BY THE SAME TIME FRAME...OPPOSITE OF THE 06Z RUN.
SO...LEFT LAST 3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST ALONE UNTIL WE SEE HOW
THINGS UNFOLD.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  51  77  57  79 /  20  10  20  10  30
TULIA         67  52  79  59  81 /  10  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     64  53  77  60  81 /  10  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     64  55  75  60  81 /  20  10  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       63  57  76  62  80 /  20  10  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   63  55  70  61  81 /  20  10  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    63  55  73  62  81 /  20  10  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     69  58  81  64  84 /  10  10  10  20  30
SPUR          64  57  77  63  84 /  10  10  10  20  30
ASPERMONT     66  58  80  66  85 /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14
684
FXUS64 KLUB 131708
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1208 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS WAS FINALLY BREAKING UP NEAR KCDS AND IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT TO THE KLBB TERMINAL BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. UNTIL
THEN...KLBB WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER MVFR CIGS. LOW CIGS MAY
RETURN TONIGHT AT KLBB BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH DISAGREEMENT
WITH THIS REGARD DEPICTING ANYWHERE BETWEEN VFR TO LIFR CIGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES LOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE NEW 12Z GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWS TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLOW
WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY SEE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

AVIATION...
FEW-OVC CLOUD DECKS HAVE PERSISTED AT BOTH TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR MOST OF THE TAF
CYCLE...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERING OUT FOR A BIT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CLOUD DECKS WILL MAKE A RETURN
OVERNIGHT. -SHRA WERE NOTED SOUTH OF KLBB EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
STRUGGLING TO MAKE HEADWAY TO THE NORTH FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. WILL OPT TO NOT ADD A MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE TAF
ATTM...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF -RA/-DZ OCCURRING AT KLBB TODAY.
OTHERWISE...NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH BY THE
AFTERNOON...WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL TO OUR SOUTH TO ACROSS FAR SOUTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE INTERMITTENT GUSTY
N-NE SFC WINDS. DESPITE FLEETING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS ENSUED MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN-HALF OF THE CWA LIKELY
DUE TO A PERSISTENT FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS WELL AS MODEST /ALBEIT SLIGHTLY DECLINED/ LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.20-1.40 INCHES/. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE
AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT PRECIP TO STICK AROUND THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER NEAREST TO WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE WSW FLOW
ALOFT. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER TO BRIEFLY SCATTER OUT A BIT BY LATE AFTN...WHILST THE SFC
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MAKING WAY FOR A WEAK NEARBY SFC
TROUGH. THE RESULT WILL BE SFC WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH THUS
ENCOURAGING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S /WHICH IS
STILL APPROX 20 DEGREES BELOW NORM/. TONIGHT...THE RETURN OF LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COUPLED WITH SRLY SFC FLOW WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT /50S/.

LONG TERM...
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS COMBINATION
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE...AND MODEST UPPER
DYNAMICS COURTESY OF SRN BRANCH OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
WRN CONUS. AFTERWARDS...DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LIKELY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BRING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ADVECTING DRIER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL AIR SWD WHILE THE RIDGE ALSO CUTS OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE TROPICAL CONNECTION TO ODILE IN THE ERN PACIFIC. WARMEST TEMPS
MAY COME VERY LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN
THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...ROLLING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE EWD
TOWARD WEST TEXAS. OVERALL THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE...MASSAGING POPS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AND TEMPS MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  78  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  30  30
TULIA         53  78  59  80  59 /  10  10  10  20  30
PLAINVIEW     54  77  60  80  60 /  10  10  10  20  30
LEVELLAND     55  76  60  80  62 /  10  10  10  20  30
LUBBOCK       56  77  62  79  63 /  10  10  10  20  30
DENVER CITY   57  75  61  80  62 /  10  10  10  20  30
BROWNFIELD    57  77  62  80  63 /  10  10  10  20  30
CHILDRESS     57  81  64  83  64 /  10  10  10  30  30
SPUR          58  79  63  83  66 /  10  10  10  30  30
ASPERMONT     59  80  66  84  67 /  10  10  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
629
FXUS64 KLUB 131540
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1040 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES LOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE NEW 12Z GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWS TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLOW
WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY SEE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

AVIATION...
FEW-OVC CLOUD DECKS HAVE PERSISTED AT BOTH TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR MOST OF THE TAF
CYCLE...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERING OUT FOR A BIT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CLOUD DECKS WILL MAKE A RETURN
OVERNIGHT. -SHRA WERE NOTED SOUTH OF KLBB EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
STRUGGLING TO MAKE HEADWAY TO THE NORTH FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. WILL OPT TO NOT ADD A MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE TAF
ATTM...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF -RA/-DZ OCCURRING AT KLBB TODAY.
OTHERWISE...NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH BY THE
AFTERNOON...WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL TO OUR SOUTH TO ACROSS FAR SOUTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE INTERMITTENT GUSTY
N-NE SFC WINDS. DESPITE FLEETING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS ENSUED MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN-HALF OF THE CWA LIKELY
DUE TO A PERSISTENT FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS WELL AS MODEST /ALBEIT SLIGHTLY DECLINED/ LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.20-1.40 INCHES/. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE
AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT PRECIP TO STICK AROUND THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER NEAREST TO WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE WSW FLOW
ALOFT. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER TO BRIEFLY SCATTER OUT A BIT BY LATE AFTN...WHILST THE SFC
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MAKING WAY FOR A WEAK NEARBY SFC
TROUGH. THE RESULT WILL BE SFC WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH THUS
ENCOURAGING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S /WHICH IS
STILL APPROX 20 DEGREES BELOW NORM/. TONIGHT...THE RETURN OF LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COUPLED WITH SRLY SFC FLOW WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT /50S/.

LONG TERM...
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS COMBINATION
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE...AND MODEST UPPER
DYNAMICS COURTESY OF SRN BRANCH OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
WRN CONUS. AFTERWARDS...DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LIKELY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BRING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ADVECTING DRIER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL AIR SWD WHILE THE RIDGE ALSO CUTS OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE TROPICAL CONNECTION TO ODILE IN THE ERN PACIFIC. WARMEST TEMPS
MAY COME VERY LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN
THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...ROLLING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE EWD
TOWARD WEST TEXAS. OVERALL THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE...MASSAGING POPS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AND TEMPS MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  52  78  57  78 /  20  10  10  10  30
TULIA         67  53  78  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     64  54  77  60  80 /  10  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     64  55  76  60  80 /  20  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       63  56  77  62  79 /  20  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   63  57  75  61  80 /  20  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    63  57  77  62  80 /  20  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     69  57  81  64  83 /  10  10  10  10  30
SPUR          64  58  79  63  83 /  10  10  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     66  59  80  66  84 /  10  10  10  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
754
FXUS64 KLUB 131120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...
FEW-OVC CLOUD DECKS HAVE PERSISTED AT BOTH TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR MOST OF THE TAF
CYCLE...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERING OUT FOR A BIT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CLOUD DECKS WILL MAKE A RETURN
OVERNIGHT. -SHRA WERE NOTED SOUTH OF KLBB EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
STRUGGLING TO MAKE HEADWAY TO THE NORTH FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. WILL OPT TO NOT ADD A MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE TAF
ATTM...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF -RA/-DZ OCCURRING AT KLBB TODAY.
OTHERWISE...NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH BY THE
AFTERNOON...WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL TO OUR SOUTH TO ACROSS FAR SOUTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE INTERMITTENT GUSTY
N-NE SFC WINDS. DESPITE FLEETING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS ENSUED MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN-HALF OF THE CWA LIKELY
DUE TO A PERSISTENT FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS WELL AS MODEST /ALBEIT SLIGHTLY DECLINED/ LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.20-1.40 INCHES/. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE
AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT PRECIP TO STICK AROUND THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER NEAREST TO WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE WSW FLOW
ALOFT. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER TO BRIEFLY SCATTER OUT A BIT BY LATE AFTN...WHILST THE SFC
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MAKING WAY FOR A WEAK NEARBY SFC
TROUGH. THE RESULT WILL BE SFC WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH THUS
ENCOURAGING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S /WHICH IS
STILL APPROX 20 DEGREES BELOW NORM/. TONIGHT...THE RETURN OF LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COUPLED WITH SRLY SFC FLOW WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT /50S/.

LONG TERM...
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS COMBINATION
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE...AND MODEST UPPER
DYNAMICS COURTESY OF SRN BRANCH OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
WRN CONUS. AFTERWARDS...DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LIKELY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BRING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ADVECTING DRIER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL AIR SWD WHILE THE RIDGE ALSO CUTS OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE TROPICAL CONNECTION TO ODILE IN THE ERN PACIFIC. WARMEST TEMPS
MAY COME VERY LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN
THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...ROLLING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE EWD
TOWARD WEST TEXAS. OVERALL THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE...MASSAGING POPS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AND TEMPS MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  52  78  57  78 /  20  10  10  10  30
TULIA         65  53  78  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     65  54  77  60  80 /  10  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     65  55  76  60  80 /  20  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       65  57  77  62  80 /  20  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   65  57  75  61  80 /  20  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    65  57  77  62  80 /  20  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     68  57  81  64  83 /  10  10  10  10  30
SPUR          66  58  79  63  83 /  10  10  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     68  59  80  66  84 /  10  10  10  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
935
FXUS64 KLUB 130748
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
248 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL TO OUR SOUTH TO ACROSS FAR SOUTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE INTERMITTENT GUSTY
N-NE SFC WINDS. DESPITE FLEETING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS ENSUED MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN-HALF OF THE CWA LIKELY
DUE TO A PERSISTENT FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS WELL AS MODEST /ALBEIT SLIGHTLY DECLINED/ LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.20-1.40 INCHES/. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE
AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT PRECIP TO STICK AROUND THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER NEAREST TO WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE WSW FLOW
ALOFT. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER TO BRIEFLY SCATTER OUT A BIT BY LATE AFTN...WHILST THE SFC
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MAKING WAY FOR A WEAK NEARBY SFC
TROUGH. THE RESULT WILL BE SFC WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH THUS
ENCOURAGING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S /WHICH IS
STILL APPROX 20 DEGREES BELOW NORM/. TONIGHT...THE RETURN OF LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COUPLED WITH SRLY SFC FLOW WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT /50S/.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS COMBINATION
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE...AND MODEST UPPER
DYNAMICS COURTESY OF SRN BRANCH OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
WRN CONUS. AFTERWARDS...DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LIKELY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BRING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ADVECTING DRIER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL AIR SWD WHILE THE RIDGE ALSO CUTS OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE TROPICAL CONNECTION TO ODILE IN THE ERN PACIFIC. WARMEST TEMPS
MAY COME VERY LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN
THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...ROLLING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE EWD
TOWARD WEST TEXAS. OVERALL THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE...MASSAGING POPS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AND TEMPS MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  52  78  57  78 /  20  10  10  10  30
TULIA         65  53  78  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     65  54  77  60  80 /  10  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     65  55  76  60  80 /  20  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       65  56  77  62  79 /  20  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   65  57  75  61  80 /  20  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    65  57  77  62  81 /  20  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     68  57  81  64  85 /  10  10  10  10  30
SPUR          66  58  79  63  84 /  10  10  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     68  59  80  66  86 /  10  10  10  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07
935
FXUS64 KLUB 130748
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
248 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL TO OUR SOUTH TO ACROSS FAR SOUTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE INTERMITTENT GUSTY
N-NE SFC WINDS. DESPITE FLEETING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS ENSUED MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN-HALF OF THE CWA LIKELY
DUE TO A PERSISTENT FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS WELL AS MODEST /ALBEIT SLIGHTLY DECLINED/ LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.20-1.40 INCHES/. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE
AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT PRECIP TO STICK AROUND THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER NEAREST TO WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE WSW FLOW
ALOFT. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER TO BRIEFLY SCATTER OUT A BIT BY LATE AFTN...WHILST THE SFC
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MAKING WAY FOR A WEAK NEARBY SFC
TROUGH. THE RESULT WILL BE SFC WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH THUS
ENCOURAGING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S /WHICH IS
STILL APPROX 20 DEGREES BELOW NORM/. TONIGHT...THE RETURN OF LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COUPLED WITH SRLY SFC FLOW WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT /50S/.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS COMBINATION
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE...AND MODEST UPPER
DYNAMICS COURTESY OF SRN BRANCH OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
WRN CONUS. AFTERWARDS...DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LIKELY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BRING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ADVECTING DRIER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL AIR SWD WHILE THE RIDGE ALSO CUTS OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE TROPICAL CONNECTION TO ODILE IN THE ERN PACIFIC. WARMEST TEMPS
MAY COME VERY LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN
THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...ROLLING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE EWD
TOWARD WEST TEXAS. OVERALL THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE...MASSAGING POPS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AND TEMPS MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  52  78  57  78 /  20  10  10  10  30
TULIA         65  53  78  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     65  54  77  60  80 /  10  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     65  55  76  60  80 /  20  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       65  56  77  62  79 /  20  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   65  57  75  61  80 /  20  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    65  57  77  62  81 /  20  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     68  57  81  64  85 /  10  10  10  10  30
SPUR          66  58  79  63  84 /  10  10  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     68  59  80  66  86 /  10  10  10  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07
857
FXUS64 KLUB 130444
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS A PLETHORA OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH A
COOL AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. KCDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY WHILE KLBB HAS SEEN VFR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
ULTIMATELY RETURN TO KLBB BY EARLY-MID SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER SOUTHEASTERLY BUT REMAIN LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE PUSHED INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
MORNING EVIDENT BY STRONG PRESSURE RISES SPREADING INTO THE AREA.
THIS PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH OF A DIRECTIONAL
CHANGE WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WAS CAUSING THE PRECIPITATION TO WANE
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY WEAK AND SHALLOW FRONTOGENESIS WAS STILL
SEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL LIFT WAS ALSO
SEEN IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE
ALTHOUGH THIS WAS WEAK AS WELL. LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL SEE A LITTLE DROP INTO TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW BUT WILL STILL BE MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND WARMING ON THE CLOUD TOPS. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL STAY DEEP WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3.3 TO 3.6KM
COMBINED WITH NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL STILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO MODERATE RAIN UNDER SHALLOW CONVECTION
WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP THROUGH NEW MEXICO MAY BE ABLE TO ACT ON THE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TO CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
STATE LINE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE A DOWN DAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RETURN
FLOW AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TOMORROW AS SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHERLY WIND HELPS TO MODERATE THE
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. BY MONDAY...MODELS CREEP
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE FORECAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FRONT MAKING A RUN TOWARDS THE AREA. ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS IT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS STALL IT OUT
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ACROSS THE REGION AS 12Z MODELS KEEP SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SURFACE FRONT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH PRECLUDES
CHANGING POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME. ALSO LEFT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST UNCHANGED AS PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL RANGE IN CHECK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  43  65  52  76 /  80  20  10  10  10
TULIA         58  45  64  53  77 /  80  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     59  45  64  54  77 /  80  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     62  46  64  55  77 /  90  40  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       62  46  64  56  77 /  90  30  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   66  47  64  56  76 / 100  50  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    65  47  64  57  77 /  90  40  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  48  67  57  81 /  70  20  10  10  10
SPUR          65  49  66  57  79 /  80  30  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     68  51  68  59  81 /  60  40  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
857
FXUS64 KLUB 130444
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS A PLETHORA OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH A
COOL AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. KCDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY WHILE KLBB HAS SEEN VFR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
ULTIMATELY RETURN TO KLBB BY EARLY-MID SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER SOUTHEASTERLY BUT REMAIN LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE PUSHED INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
MORNING EVIDENT BY STRONG PRESSURE RISES SPREADING INTO THE AREA.
THIS PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH OF A DIRECTIONAL
CHANGE WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WAS CAUSING THE PRECIPITATION TO WANE
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY WEAK AND SHALLOW FRONTOGENESIS WAS STILL
SEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL LIFT WAS ALSO
SEEN IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE
ALTHOUGH THIS WAS WEAK AS WELL. LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL SEE A LITTLE DROP INTO TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW BUT WILL STILL BE MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND WARMING ON THE CLOUD TOPS. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL STAY DEEP WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3.3 TO 3.6KM
COMBINED WITH NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL STILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO MODERATE RAIN UNDER SHALLOW CONVECTION
WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP THROUGH NEW MEXICO MAY BE ABLE TO ACT ON THE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TO CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
STATE LINE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE A DOWN DAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RETURN
FLOW AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TOMORROW AS SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHERLY WIND HELPS TO MODERATE THE
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. BY MONDAY...MODELS CREEP
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE FORECAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FRONT MAKING A RUN TOWARDS THE AREA. ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS IT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS STALL IT OUT
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ACROSS THE REGION AS 12Z MODELS KEEP SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SURFACE FRONT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH PRECLUDES
CHANGING POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME. ALSO LEFT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST UNCHANGED AS PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL RANGE IN CHECK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  43  65  52  76 /  80  20  10  10  10
TULIA         58  45  64  53  77 /  80  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     59  45  64  54  77 /  80  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     62  46  64  55  77 /  90  40  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       62  46  64  56  77 /  90  30  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   66  47  64  56  76 / 100  50  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    65  47  64  57  77 /  90  40  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  48  67  57  81 /  70  20  10  10  10
SPUR          65  49  66  57  79 /  80  30  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     68  51  68  59  81 /  60  40  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
872
FXUS64 KLUB 122344
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
644 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
BOTH SITES...BEFORE CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CRITERIA LATER
THIS EVENING AT KCDS. KLBB ON THE OTHER HAND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
LIGHT RAIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS. STILL EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SATURDAY AT KLBB...BEFORE POTENTIALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND
VEER SOUTHEASTERLY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE PUSHED INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
MORNING EVIDENT BY STRONG PRESSURE RISES SPREADING INTO THE AREA.
THIS PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH OF A DIRECTIONAL
CHANGE WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WAS CAUSING THE PRECIPITATION TO WANE
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY WEAK AND SHALLOW FRONTOGENESIS WAS STILL
SEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL LIFT WAS ALSO
SEEN IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE
ALTHOUGH THIS WAS WEAK AS WELL. LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL SEE A LITTLE DROP INTO TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW BUT WILL STILL BE MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND WARMING ON THE CLOUD TOPS. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL STAY DEEP WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3.3 TO 3.6KM
COMBINED WITH NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL STILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO MODERATE RAIN UNDER SHALLOW CONVECTION
WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP THROUGH NEW MEXICO MAY BE ABLE TO ACT ON THE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TO CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
STATE LINE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE A DOWN DAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RETURN
FLOW AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TOMORROW AS SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHERLY WIND HELPS TO MODERATE THE
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. BY MONDAY...MODELS CREEP
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE FORECAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FRONT MAKING A RUN TOWARDS THE AREA. ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS IT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS STALL IT OUT
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ACROSS THE REGION AS 12Z MODELS KEEP SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SURFACE FRONT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH PRECLUDES
CHANGING POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME. ALSO LEFT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST UNCHANGED AS PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL RANGE IN CHECK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  65  52  76  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
TULIA         45  64  53  77  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     45  64  54  77  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     46  64  55  77  61 /  40  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       46  64  56  77  61 /  30  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   47  64  56  76  60 /  50  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    47  64  57  77  61 /  40  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     48  67  57  81  64 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          49  66  57  79  64 /  30  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     51  68  59  81  66 /  40  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
991
FXUS64 KLUB 122017
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
317 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE PUSHED INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
MORNING EVIDENT BY STRONG PRESSURE RISES SPREADING INTO THE AREA.
THIS PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH OF A DIRECTIONAL
CHANGE WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WAS CAUSING THE PRECIPITATION TO WANE
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY WEAK AND SHALLOW FRONTOGENESIS WAS STILL
SEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL LIFT WAS ALSO
SEEN IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE
ALTHOUGH THIS WAS WEAK AS WELL. LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL SEE A LITTLE DROP INTO TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW BUT WILL STILL BE MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND WARMING ON THE CLOUD TOPS. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL STAY DEEP WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3.3 TO 3.6KM
COMBINED WITH NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL STILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO MODERATE RAIN UNDER SHALLOW CONVECTION
WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP THROUGH NEW MEXICO MAY BE ABLE TO ACT ON THE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TO CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
STATE LINE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE A DOWN DAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RETURN
FLOW AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TOMORROW AS SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHERLY WIND HELPS TO MODERATE THE
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. BY MONDAY...MODELS CREEP
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE FORECAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FRONT MAKING A RUN TOWARDS THE AREA. ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS IT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS STALL IT OUT
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ACROSS THE REGION AS 12Z MODELS KEEP SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SURFACE FRONT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH PRECLUDES
CHANGING POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME. ALSO LEFT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST UNCHANGED AS PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL RANGE IN CHECK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  65  52  76  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
TULIA         45  64  53  77  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     45  64  54  77  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     46  64  55  77  61 /  40  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       46  64  56  77  61 /  30  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   47  64  56  76  60 /  50  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    47  64  57  77  61 /  40  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     48  67  57  81  64 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          49  66  57  79  64 /  30  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     51  68  59  81  66 /  40  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14
141
FXUS64 KLUB 121717
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1217 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE KLBB
TERMINAL AND POINTS SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER HAS
IMPROVED CONDITIONS AT KCDS TO MVFR AND IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER IMPROVE TO
VFR THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. KLBB WILL
LIKELY REMAIN UNDER IFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH BRIEF CHANGES TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR CIGS. VISBYS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE EVENING WHEN VISBYS
AND CIGS UNDERGO SOME IMPROVEMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

AVIATION...
BKN-OVC IFR AND LIFR CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPED AT KCDS AND KLBB
RESPECTIVELY EARLY THIS MORNING. FURTHERMORE...MVFR FOG HAVE ALSO
DEVELOPED AT BOTH TAF SITES. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RA WAS
MOVING ACROSS KCDS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WHILST ISOLATED -SHRA SOUTH OF THE KLBB COULD POSSIBLY
AFFECT THE TERMINAL LEADING TO INTERMITTENT -SHRA. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS BOTH TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING LEADING TO N-NE
SFC WINDS AT 15-20 MPH...AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RA. WILL
EXPECT MVFR TO LIFR CLOUD DECKS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF
CYCLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECLINE NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA RIDGE WAS STRETCHED FROM THE SERN CONUS TO NEAR FAR SW TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SWRN FLANK OF THE SAID UA RIDGE HAS AIDED IN
TRANSPORTING MID-UPPER LEVEL EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...COUPLED WITH AN ENDURING UPSLOPE SFC REGIME /PWATS
RANGING FROM THE 1.40-1.60 INCHES/ AND AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE WITHIN
THE SWRN FLANK OF THE UA RIDGE...TO PROMOTE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. RAINFALL RATES RANGED FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR UP TO THREE-QUARTER INCH OR SO PER
HOUR...WITH THE HEAVIEST BANDS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND ALSO MOVING IN FROM EAST NEW MEXICO TO
ACROSS THE FAR SWRN SOUTH PLAINS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UA TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND WILL BE HEADED TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH ITS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
BE WELL NORTH OF THE FA...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE HEADED
OUR WAY AS IT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AND SRN KS PER 08Z
METARS. IT IS PROGGED TO IMPINGE ON THE FAR SWRN TX PANHANDLE
BETWEEN 12Z-15Z...AND QUICKLY ADVANCE SOUTH OF THE SRN ZONES BY
THE AFTN. THE 1030 MB SFC RIDGE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
PROMOTE PRESSURE RISES OF 2-4 MB/3 HRS WHICH IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL LIGHT-MODERATE
RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT...NOT TO MENTION DECENT CAA /ALONG WITH
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS/ WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET
OUT OF THE 50S AND 60S TODAY.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS THE
SFC RIDGE NEARS THE REGION...THUS CAUSING LIGHTER N-NE SFC WIND
SPEEDS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THE COLD FRONT AND ITS
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE FA. HOWEVER..COULD
PERHAPS SEE LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN...SRN AND
SWRN ZONES. RAIN-FREE AREAS MAY NEED TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR
POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL BE CHILLY DUE TO THE FROPA AND RECENT RAINFALL...WITH MIDDLE
40S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS ARE ANTICIPATED.

LONG TERM...
FCST AREA WILL KEEP A CONNECTION TO SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NWD FROM THE ERN PACIFIC AND TROPICAL STORM ODILE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LIFT THAT
HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL DIMINISH
AS A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS QUICKLY EWD TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP COOL TEMPS AND
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE SMALL. THIS BEGINS TO CHANGE AGAIN FOR MONDAY...TUESDAY...
AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AS THE SRN BRANCH IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
MOVES EWD OVER THE DESERT SW AND IMPINGES ON THE FCST AREA
PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF ALBEIT WEAKER LIFT THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FCST AREA. LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
MOIST...AND THERE MIGHT BE A WEAK FRONT THAT CAN MAKE IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE FCST AREA POSSIBLY PROVIDING EITHER A LOW LEVEL FOCUS
OR MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW. UPSHOT IS THAT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THAT PERIOD TO PROVIDE A NARROWER
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS THAN SEEN IN MOS GUIDANCE. TEMPS PROBABLY
WILL NOT RETURN TO MOS PROGS UNTIL LATE WEEK WHEN FCST AREA BEGINS
TO LOSE THE DEEP MOISTURE CONNECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  67  53  76  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
TULIA         47  66  53  77  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     47  66  54  77  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     48  66  56  77  61 /  30  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       48  66  56  77  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   49  66  58  76  61 /  40  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    49  66  58  77  62 /  30  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     50  68  57  81  65 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          51  67  58  79  64 /  20  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     53  69  59  81  66 /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/99
902
FXUS64 KLUB 121118
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
618 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...
BKN-OVC IFR AND LIFR CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPED AT KCDS AND KLBB
RESPECTIVELY EARLY THIS MORNING. FURTHERMORE...MVFR FOG HAVE ALSO
DEVELOPED AT BOTH TAF SITES. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RA WAS
MOVING ACROSS KCDS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WHILST ISOLATED -SHRA SOUTH OF THE KLBB COULD POSSIBLY
AFFECT THE TERMINAL LEADING TO INTERMITTENT -SHRA. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS BOTH TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING LEADING TO N-NE
SFC WINDS AT 15-20 MPH...AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RA. WILL
EXPECT MVFR TO LIFR CLOUD DECKS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF
CYCLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECLINE NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA RIDGE WAS STRETCHED FROM THE SERN CONUS TO NEAR FAR SW TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SWRN FLANK OF THE SAID UA RIDGE HAS AIDED IN
TRANSPORTING MID-UPPER LEVEL EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...COUPLED WITH AN ENDURING UPSLOPE SFC REGIME /PWATS
RANGING FROM THE 1.40-1.60 INCHES/ AND AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE WITHIN
THE SWRN FLANK OF THE UA RIDGE...TO PROMOTE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. RAINFALL RATES RANGED FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR UP TO THREE-QUARTER INCH OR SO PER
HOUR...WITH THE HEAVIEST BANDS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND ALSO MOVING IN FROM EAST NEW MEXICO TO
ACROSS THE FAR SWRN SOUTH PLAINS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UA TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND WILL BE HEADED TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH ITS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
BE WELL NORTH OF THE FA...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE HEADED
OUR WAY AS IT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AND SRN KS PER 08Z
METARS. IT IS PROGGED TO IMPINGE ON THE FAR SWRN TX PANHANDLE
BETWEEN 12Z-15Z...AND QUICKLY ADVANCE SOUTH OF THE SRN ZONES BY
THE AFTN. THE 1030 MB SFC RIDGE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
PROMOTE PRESSURE RISES OF 2-4 MB/3 HRS WHICH IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL LIGHT-MODERATE
RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT...NOT TO MENTION DECENT CAA /ALONG WITH
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS/ WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET
OUT OF THE 50S AND 60S TODAY.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS THE
SFC RIDGE NEARS THE REGION...THUS CAUSING LIGHTER N-NE SFC WIND
SPEEDS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THE COLD FRONT AND ITS
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE FA. HOWEVER..COULD
PERHAPS SEE LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN...SRN AND
SWRN ZONES. RAIN-FREE AREAS MAY NEED TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR
POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL BE CHILLY DUE TO THE FROPA AND RECENT RAINFALL...WITH MIDDLE
40S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS ARE ANTICIPATED.

LONG TERM...
FCST AREA WILL KEEP A CONNECTION TO SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NWD FROM THE ERN PACIFIC AND TROPICAL STORM ODILE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LIFT THAT
HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL DIMINISH
AS A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS QUICKLY EWD TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP COOL TEMPS AND
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE SMALL. THIS BEGINS TO CHANGE AGAIN FOR MONDAY...TUESDAY...
AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AS THE SRN BRANCH IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
MOVES EWD OVER THE DESERT SW AND IMPINGES ON THE FCST AREA
PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF ALBEIT WEAKER LIFT THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FCST AREA. LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
MOIST...AND THERE MIGHT BE A WEAK FRONT THAT CAN MAKE IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE FCST AREA POSSIBLY PROVIDING EITHER A LOW LEVEL FOCUS
OR MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW. UPSHOT IS THAT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THAT PERIOD TO PROVIDE A NARROWER
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS THAN SEEN IN MOS GUIDANCE. TEMPS PROBABLY
WILL NOT RETURN TO MOS PROGS UNTIL LATE WEEK WHEN FCST AREA BEGINS
TO LOSE THE DEEP MOISTURE CONNECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  45  67  53  76 /  80  20  10  10  10
TULIA         58  47  66  53  77 /  80  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     59  47  66  54  77 /  80  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     62  48  66  56  77 /  90  30  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       62  48  66  56  77 /  90  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   66  49  66  58  76 / 100  40  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    65  49  66  58  77 /  90  30  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  50  68  57  81 /  70  20  10  10  10
SPUR          65  51  67  58  79 /  80  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     68  53  69  59  81 /  60  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
707
FXUS64 KLUB 120839
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
339 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN UA RIDGE WAS STRETCHED FROM THE SERN CONUS TO NEAR FAR SW TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SWRN FLANK OF THE SAID UA RIDGE HAS AIDED IN
TRANSPORTING MID-UPPER LEVEL EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...COUPLED WITH AN ENDURING UPSLOPE SFC REGIME /PWATS
RANGING FROM THE 1.40-1.60 INCHES/ AND AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE WITHIN
THE SWRN FLANK OF THE UA RIDGE...TO PROMOTE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. RAINFALL RATES RANGED FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR UP TO THREE-QUARTER INCH OR SO PER
HOUR...WITH THE HEAVIEST BANDS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND ALSO MOVING IN FROM EAST NEW MEXICO TO
ACROSS THE FAR SWRN SOUTH PLAINS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UA TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND WILL BE HEADED TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH ITS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
BE WELL NORTH OF THE FA...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE HEADED
OUR WAY AS IT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AND SRN KS PER 08Z
METARS. IT IS PROGGED TO IMPINGE ON THE FAR SWRN TX PANHANDLE
BETWEEN 12Z-15Z...AND QUICKLY ADVANCE SOUTH OF THE SRN ZONES BY
THE AFTN. THE 1030 MB SFC RIDGE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
PROMOTE PRESSURE RISES OF 2-4 MB/3 HRS WHICH IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL LIGHT-MODERATE
RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT...NOT TO MENTION DECENT CAA /ALONG WITH
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS/ WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET
OUT OF THE 50S AND 60S TODAY.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS THE
SFC RIDGE NEARS THE REGION...THUS CAUSING LIGHTER N-NE SFC WIND
SPEEDS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THE COLD FRONT AND ITS
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE FA. HOWEVER..COULD
PERHAPS SEE LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN...SRN AND
SWRN ZONES. RAIN-FREE AREAS MAY NEED TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR
POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL BE CHILLY DUE TO THE FROPA AND RECENT RAINFALL...WITH MIDDLE
40S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FCST AREA WILL KEEP A CONNECTION TO SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NWD FROM THE ERN PACIFIC AND TROPICAL STORM ODILE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LIFT THAT
HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL DIMINISH
AS A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS QUICKLY EWD TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP COOL TEMPS AND
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE SMALL. THIS BEGINS TO CHANGE AGAIN FOR MONDAY...TUESDAY...
AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AS THE SRN BRANCH IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
MOVES EWD OVER THE DESERT SW AND IMPINGES ON THE FCST AREA
PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF ALBEIT WEAKER LIFT THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FCST AREA. LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
MOIST...AND THERE MIGHT BE A WEAK FRONT THAT CAN MAKE IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE FCST AREA POSSIBLY PROVIDING EITHER A LOW LEVEL FOCUS
OR MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW. UPSHOT IS THAT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THAT PERIOD TO PROVIDE A NARROWER
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS THAN SEEN IN MOS GUIDANCE. TEMPS PROBABLY
WILL NOT RETURN TO MOS PROGS UNTIL LATE WEEK WHEN FCST AREA BEGINS
TO LOSE THE DEEP MOISTURE CONNECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  45  67  53  76 /  80  20  10  10  10
TULIA         58  47  66  53  77 /  80  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     59  47  66  54  77 /  80  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     62  48  66  56  77 /  90  30  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       62  48  66  56  77 /  90  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   66  49  66  58  76 / 100  40  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    65  49  66  58  77 /  90  30  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  50  68  57  81 /  70  20  10  10  10
SPUR          65  51  67  58  79 /  80  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     68  53  69  59  81 /  60  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07
134
FXUS64 KLUB 120454
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1154 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING IN FRIDAY MORNING.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH PREVAILING IFR
CEILINGS AT KLBB FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. KCDS MAY STILL SEE IFR CEILINGS...SO INSERTED A TEMPO
GROUP FROM 13-17Z. WINDS WILL BACK NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO NEAR
15 KNOTS FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS. SPEEDS
SHOULD DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STILL HAVE TO
MONITOR CEILINGS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BETTER BREAK OUT THE PARKA FOR THAT FOOTBALL GAME TOMORROW NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION. CURRENTLY THE COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED OVER
NORTHEASTERN CO WHERE COLD AIR IS DAMMED AGAINST THE ROCKIES.
CURRENT SURFACE OBS SHOW TEMPS AS LOW AS 33 DEGREES AT THE BASE OF
THE ROCKIES IN WYOMING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ROCKIES. THOUGH WE WILL NOT BE SEEING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S THEY WILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WV SHOWS A TROF
POSITIONED OVER ID/MT MOVING SOUTHEAST. THIS TROF WILL BE WHAT
PUSHES THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH IN MANY
AREAS...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTH PLAINS...AS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
DURING MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY HAVE KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AS OF
20Z LUBBOCK HAS YET TO REACH ABOVE 70 DEGREES. LOWS IN THE MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOW 60S. TEMPS ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM UP THROUGH PART OF THE DAY TOMORROW INTO THE
UPPER 60S AS THESE AREAS WILL SEE THE FROPA LAST. THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FA WILL SEEM TEMPS LOWER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TOMORROW AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE FROPA
WILL BE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF SPEED IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AS THE
MUCH DENSER COOL AIR WILL BE DAMMED AGAINST THE ROCKIES.

ALONG WITH COOLER AIR...RAIN WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL DEFINITELY NOT BE AN ISSUE. WV SHOWS TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEING TAPPED FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHICH WILL GIVE US PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES. THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIP WILL COME LATER THIS EVENING ALONG OUR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES AS A TROF ROTATES AROUND A RIDGE JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL POSITION ITSELF TO OUR NORTH AND WILL
PLACE US IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF DIVERGENCE AND THIS WILL HELP
SUSTAIN PRECIP ACTIVITY. PRECIP CHANCES DRASTICALLY INCREASE BY
TOMORROW MORNING AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING GIVES LIFT TO AN ALREADY
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SWIFTLY THROUGH THE FA
BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON LEAVING BEHIND TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE FA THANKS TO ISENTROPIC LIFTING. OUR SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES WILL SEE HEAVIER RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WILL
STILL BE NEAR THE AREA. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD SEPTEMBER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE...OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 50S...EVEN UPPER 40S IN
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT AND GIVE WAY TO A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 70 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA & WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. HIGHS
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ITS ASSOCIATED
LOW WILL TAP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM IN
THE SE PACIFIC. COVERAGE ACROSS WEST TEXAS IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING CHANCES OF MORE RAINFALL
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  56  60  47  72 /  30  70  80  20  10
TULIA         78  56  60  48  71 /  40  60  80  20  10
PLAINVIEW     79  57  62  48  70 /  40  70  80  20  10
LEVELLAND     79  60  64  50  71 /  50  90  90  20  20
LUBBOCK       80  59  64  50  70 /  40  80  90  20  10
DENVER CITY   80  62  67  51  70 /  30  90  90  30  20
BROWNFIELD    80  61  66  51  71 /  50  90  90  30  20
CHILDRESS     81  59  64  52  74 /  20  40  70  20  10
SPUR          81  62  66  53  74 /  30  60  80  20  10
ASPERMONT     81  64  70  55  75 /  20  60  70  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
234
FXUS64 KLUB 112350
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
650 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST THIS EVENING...MAKING A RUN AT KLBB. INCREASING MOISTURE
WITH COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS IMPACTING KLBB AND KCDS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN KLBB EXPERIENCING IFR
CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY-MID FRIDAY MORNING WITH KCDS A
BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER SUPPORT
STRATUS AND POTENTIALLY SOME FOG ALONG WITH RAINFALL DURING THIS
SAME TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL BACK NORTHEASTERLY WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO NEAR 15 MPH AS GUSTS APPROACH 25 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BETTER BREAK OUT THE PARKA FOR THAT FOOTBALL GAME TOMORROW NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION. CURRENTLY THE COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED OVER
NORTHEASTERN CO WHERE COLD AIR IS DAMMED AGAINST THE ROCKIES.
CURRENT SURFACE OBS SHOW TEMPS AS LOW AS 33 DEGREES AT THE BASE OF
THE ROCKIES IN WYOMING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ROCKIES. THOUGH WE WILL NOT BE SEEING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S THEY WILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WV SHOWS A TROF
POSITIONED OVER ID/MT MOVING SOUTHEAST. THIS TROF WILL BE WHAT
PUSHES THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH IN MANY
AREAS...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTH PLAINS...AS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
DURING MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY HAVE KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AS OF
20Z LUBBOCK HAS YET TO REACH ABOVE 70 DEGREES. LOWS IN THE MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOW 60S. TEMPS ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM UP THROUGH PART OF THE DAY TOMORROW INTO THE
UPPER 60S AS THESE AREAS WILL SEE THE FROPA LAST. THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FA WILL SEEM TEMPS LOWER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TOMORROW AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE FROPA
WILL BE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF SPEED IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AS THE
MUCH DENSER COOL AIR WILL BE DAMMED AGAINST THE ROCKIES.

ALONG WITH COOLER AIR...RAIN WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL DEFINITELY NOT BE AN ISSUE. WV SHOWS TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEING TAPPED FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHICH WILL GIVE US PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES. THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIP WILL COME LATER THIS EVENING ALONG OUR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES AS A TROF ROTATES AROUND A RIDGE JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL POSITION ITSELF TO OUR NORTH AND WILL
PLACE US IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF DIVERGENCE AND THIS WILL HELP
SUSTAIN PRECIP ACTIVITY. PRECIP CHANCES DRASTICALLY INCREASE BY
TOMORROW MORNING AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING GIVES LIFT TO AN ALREADY
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SWIFTLY THROUGH THE FA
BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON LEAVING BEHIND TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE FA THANKS TO ISENTROPIC LIFTING. OUR SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES WILL SEE HEAVIER RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WILL
STILL BE NEAR THE AREA. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD SEPTEMBER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE...OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 50S...EVEN UPPER 40S IN
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT AND GIVE WAY TO A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 70 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA & WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. HIGHS
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ITS ASSOCIATED
LOW WILL TAP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM IN
THE SE PACIFIC. COVERAGE ACROSS WEST TEXAS IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING CHANCES OF MORE RAINFALL
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        56  60  47  72  54 /  70  80  20  10  10
TULIA         56  60  48  71  54 /  60  80  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     57  62  48  70  55 /  60  80  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     60  64  50  71  57 /  70  90  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       59  64  50  70  57 /  70  90  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   62  67  51  70  58 /  70  90  30  20  10
BROWNFIELD    61  66  51  71  58 /  70  90  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     59  64  52  74  59 /  40  70  20  10  10
SPUR          62  66  53  74  60 /  60  80  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     64  70  55  75  62 /  60  70  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
797
FXUS64 KLUB 112128
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
428 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...
BETTER BREAK OUT THE PARKA FOR THAT FOOTBALL GAME TOMORROW NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION. CURRENTLY THE COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED OVER
NORTHEASTERN CO WHERE COLD AIR IS DAMMED AGAINST THE ROCKIES.
CURRENT SURFACE OBS SHOW TEMPS AS LOW AS 33 DEGREES AT THE BASE OF
THE ROCKIES IN WYOMING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ROCKIES. THOUGH WE WILL NOT BE SEEING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S THEY WILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WV SHOWS A TROF
POSITIONED OVER ID/MT MOVING SOUTHEAST. THIS TROF WILL BE WHAT
PUSHES THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH IN MANY
AREAS...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTH PLAINS...AS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
DURING MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY HAVE KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AS OF
20Z LUBBOCK HAS YET TO REACH ABOVE 70 DEGREES. LOWS IN THE MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOW 60S. TEMPS ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM UP THROUGH PART OF THE DAY TOMORROW INTO THE
UPPER 60S AS THESE AREAS WILL SEE THE FROPA LAST. THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FA WILL SEEM TEMPS LOWER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TOMORROW AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE FROPA
WILL BE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF SPEED IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AS THE
MUCH DENSER COOL AIR WILL BE DAMMED AGAINST THE ROCKIES.

ALONG WITH COOLER AIR...RAIN WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL DEFINITELY NOT BE AN ISSUE. WV SHOWS TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEING TAPPED FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHICH WILL GIVE US PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES. THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIP WILL COME LATER THIS EVENING ALONG OUR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES AS A TROF ROTATES AROUND A RIDGE JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL POSITION ITSELF TO OUR NORTH AND WILL
PLACE US IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF DIVERGENCE AND THIS WILL HELP
SUSTAIN PRECIP ACTIVITY. PRECIP CHANCES DRASTICALLY INCREASE BY
TOMORROW MORNING AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING GIVES LIFT TO AN ALREADY
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SWIFTLY THROUGH THE FA
BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON LEAVING BEHIND TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE FA THANKS TO ISENTROPIC LIFTING. OUR SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES WILL SEE HEAVIER RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WILL
STILL BE NEAR THE AREA. ALDRICH

&&

.LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD SEPTEMBER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE...OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 50S...EVEN UPPER 40S IN
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT AND GIVE WAY TO A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 70 DEGRESS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA & WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. HIGHS
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ITS ASSOCIATED
LOW WILL TAP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM IN
THE SE PACIFIC. COVERAGE ACROSS WEST TEXAS IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING CHANCES OF MORE RAINFALL
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        56  60  47  72  54 /  70  80  20  10  10
TULIA         56  60  48  71  54 /  60  80  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     57  62  48  70  55 /  60  80  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     60  64  50  71  57 /  70  90  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       59  64  50  70  57 /  70  90  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   62  67  51  70  58 /  70  90  30  20  10
BROWNFIELD    61  66  51  71  58 /  70  90  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     59  64  52  74  59 /  40  70  20  10  10
SPUR          62  66  53  74  60 /  60  80  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     64  70  55  75  62 /  60  70  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/55
131
FXUS64 KLUB 111723
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1223 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.AVIATION...
AT LBB...CIGS AND VIS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT OVER THE TERMINAL. THESE SHOWERS WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINAL BY 19Z. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOST LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW. AT CDS...MVFR CIGS REMAIN AROUND AND OVER THE
TERMINAL BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 19Z. WINDS AT BOTH
TERMINALS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE EAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE BACKING TO THE NORTHEAST BY TOMORROW
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME FOG MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING IN RESPONSE TO UPSLOPE FLOW IN AN
ALREADY MOIST ENVIRONMENT POSSIBLY LOWERING VIS TO MVFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014/

UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG A
LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH OF BLEDSOE TO LUBBOCK...ARE CREATING
HEAVY DOWN POURS WHICH ARE CAUSING LOCALIZED URBAN FLOOD ISSUES.
THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS THEY
PUSH EASTWARD LEAVING MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE FA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TS APPROACHING LUBBOCK FROM THE WEST IN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE VALID TIME. HOWEVER CONCENTRATION OF
TS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT MENTION INTO THAT TAF. STILL...
CHANCES ARE NON-ZERO OF THAT POSSIBLE OCCURENCE THERE BEFORE 15Z.
FOR KCDS...LOW CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND NE SHOULD
BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS THERE THIS
MORNING. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO RAIN EVENT OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
DEFINITELY FAVORED OVER THUNDER AT THAT TIME AND HAVE INSERTED
MENTION IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS THIS MORNING REMAINS ON INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT. UAA
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WHILE MODELS PROG A FAIRLY MODEST 50 KT UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK EJECTING FROM THIS LOW TODAY MOVING FROM NRN MEXICO ACROSS
FAR WEST TEXAS AND ERN NEW MEXICO. ENOUGH LIFT FROM THIS JET STREAK
INTERACTING WITH DEEP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NWD FROM THE
ERN PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO TO GENERATE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THAT WILL SPREAD NEWD/EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOCUSING ON THE OVERNIGHT
06Z TO 12Z PERIOD STILL LOOKS GOOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MUCH SLOWER TO DEVELOP IN
NARROW ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COOL...MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
FROM ERN NM TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND AS OF 08Z RADAR IMAGERY
FINALLY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME VERY ISOLATED RETURNS. MODELS REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS MODEST LIFT INTERACTING WITH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME PRECIP THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A QUIET
PERIOD OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE MECHANISM
DISCUSSED ABOVE BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA...ALTHOUGH WITH
MOISTURE IN PLACE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH PEAK HEATING. THAT HEATING WILL BE
LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND COOL AIR MASS WITH FCST HIGHS FIVE TO TEN
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...
WELCOME RAINFALL APPEARS NEARLY CERTAIN FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS ON FRI AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT
INTERCEPT A DEEPENING PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ATOP WEST TX.
SOME PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THANKS TO
A ZONAL CORRIDOR OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND 305K AIDED BY THE UL
JET MAX DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE. ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR NWRN ZONES BY MID-MORNING COULD CERTAINLY
GARNER SOME MESOSCALE BANDING WITH ENHANCED PRECIP RATES...BUT
BY THE AFTN THIS FRONT WILL BE EXITING TO OUR SOUTH FOLLOWED BY
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
A PROGRESSIVE DECAY OF PRECIP FROM N-S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN THE ONLY SATURATED LAYERS BECOMING CONFINED TO THE
LOWEST 5K FEET OR SO...A TRADEMARK COMMONLY ASSOCIATED WITH
DRIZZLE. THE NAM MAINTAINS AN AXIS OF ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL ASCENT
UNDER THE DECAYING ANTICYCLONIC JET STREAK FROM MEXICO...BUT THIS
AND ITS ASSOCIATED QPF BANDS BY FRI NIGHT ARE BEING DISMISSED IN
FAVOR OF WPC/S DRIER RECOMMENDATION. ANOTHER CHALLENGE ON FRI IS
HIGH TEMPS AS THE TIMING OF COLD FROPA WILL GUARANTEE TEMPS
END UP FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAW MODELS HAVE WIDESPREAD
LOWER 50S BEFORE SUNSET AND THIS APPEARS LEGITIMATE UPON LOOKING
AT THE CHILLY AIR MASS PRESENTLY OCCUPYING THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE WESTERN EXTENT OF COOL SURFACE RIDGING IS NOW PROGGED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED BY THE
CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND IN HIGH TEMPS PER MEX GUIDANCE. ANY
BREAKS IN THE STRATUS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS OUR NRN-ERN ZONES
NEAREST THE DRIEST AIR IN THE SURFACE HIGH. BY LATE SAT...MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SLOWLY AMPLIFY AND ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM THE BIG BEND. ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE...NOT WILLING TO
INTRODUCE PRECIP MENTION JUST YET AS THE LL PRESSURE RIDGE MAY
PROVE MUCH DEEPER AND END UP THWARTING PRECIP ALTOGETHER.

STILL NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ECMWF INSISTS
ON A SHARPER TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST COMPLETE WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LOCALLY BY MON/TUE. THE GFS IS MUTED ENTIRELY WITH THESE
FEATURES BUT STILL DELIVERS AN UNSETTLED NWLY FLOW REGIME UNDER
CONTINUED LL MOISTENING. EVEN THOUGH MOS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS
ARE BULLISH WITH POPS FROM MON-WED...WILL KEEP PRECIP MENTION SHY
OF 20 PERCENT FOR NOW UNTIL THIS PICTURE HOPEFULLY TRENDS CLEARER
IN LATER RUNS. HI TEMPS SHOULD UNDERGO A VERY SLOW RECOVERY
FOLLOWING THE UNSEASONABLY COOL START TO THE WEEKEND AND THREAT OF
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS FOR DAYS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  60  43  67  54 /  70  70  10  10  10
TULIA         59  60  44  67  54 /  60  80  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     60  62  45  63  55 /  60  80  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     61  64  45  62  56 /  70  80  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       62  63  48  62  56 /  70  80  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   62  65  45  62  55 /  70  80  30  10  10
BROWNFIELD    62  65  46  62  57 /  70  80  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  64  50  70  59 /  40  70  10  10  10
SPUR          62  65  49  67  59 /  60  80  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     63  68  50  68  61 /  60  70  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/55/51
270
FXUS64 KLUB 111348
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
848 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG A
LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH OF BLEDSOE TO LUBBOCK...ARE CREATING
HEAVY DOWN POURS WHICH ARE CAUSING LOCALIZED URBAN FLOOD ISSUES.
THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS THEY
PUSH EASTWARD LEAVING MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TS APPROACHING LUBBOCK FROM THE WEST IN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE VALID TIME. HOWEVER CONCENTRATION OF
TS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT MENTION INTO THAT TAF. STILL...
CHANCES ARE NON-ZERO OF THAT POSSIBLE OCCURENCE THERE BEFORE 15Z.
FOR KCDS...LOW CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND NE SHOULD
BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS THERE THIS
MORNING. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO RAIN EVENT OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
DEFINITELY FAVORED OVER THUNDER AT THAT TIME AND HAVE INSERTED
MENTION IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS THIS MORNING REMAINS ON INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT. UAA
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WHILE MODELS PROG A FAIRLY MODEST 50 KT UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK EJECTING FROM THIS LOW TODAY MOVING FROM NRN MEXICO ACROSS
FAR WEST TEXAS AND ERN NEW MEXICO. ENOUGH LIFT FROM THIS JET STREAK
INTERACTING WITH DEEP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NWD FROM THE
ERN PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO TO GENERATE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THAT WILL SPREAD NEWD/EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOCUSING ON THE OVERNIGHT
06Z TO 12Z PERIOD STILL LOOKS GOOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MUCH SLOWER TO DEVELOP IN
NARROW ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COOL...MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
FROM ERN NM TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND AS OF 08Z RADAR IMAGERY
FINALLY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME VERY ISOLATED RETURNS. MODELS REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS MODEST LIFT INTERACTING WITH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME PRECIP THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A QUIET
PERIOD OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE MECHANISM
DISCUSSED ABOVE BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA...ALTHOUGH WITH
MOISTURE IN PLACE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH PEAK HEATING. THAT HEATING WILL BE
LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND COOL AIR MASS WITH FCST HIGHS FIVE TO TEN
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...
WELCOME RAINFALL APPEARS NEARLY CERTAIN FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS ON FRI AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT
INTERCEPT A DEEPENING PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ATOP WEST TX.
SOME PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THANKS TO
A ZONAL CORRIDOR OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND 305K AIDED BY THE UL
JET MAX DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE. ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR NWRN ZONES BY MID-MORNING COULD CERTAINLY
GARNER SOME MESOSCALE BANDING WITH ENHANCED PRECIP RATES...BUT
BY THE AFTN THIS FRONT WILL BE EXITING TO OUR SOUTH FOLLOWED BY
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
A PROGRESSIVE DECAY OF PRECIP FROM N-S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN THE ONLY SATURATED LAYERS BECOMING CONFINED TO THE
LOWEST 5K FEET OR SO...A TRADEMARK COMMONLY ASSOCIATED WITH
DRIZZLE. THE NAM MAINTAINS AN AXIS OF ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL ASCENT
UNDER THE DECAYING ANTICYCLONIC JET STREAK FROM MEXICO...BUT THIS
AND ITS ASSOCIATED QPF BANDS BY FRI NIGHT ARE BEING DISMISSED IN
FAVOR OF WPC/S DRIER RECOMMENDATION. ANOTHER CHALLENGE ON FRI IS
HIGH TEMPS AS THE TIMING OF COLD FROPA WILL GUARANTEE TEMPS
END UP FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAW MODELS HAVE WIDESPREAD
LOWER 50S BEFORE SUNSET AND THIS APPEARS LEGITIMATE UPON LOOKING
AT THE CHILLY AIR MASS PRESENTLY OCCUPYING THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE WESTERN EXTENT OF COOL SURFACE RIDGING IS NOW PROGGED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED BY THE
CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND IN HIGH TEMPS PER MEX GUIDANCE. ANY
BREAKS IN THE STRATUS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS OUR NRN-ERN ZONES
NEAREST THE DRIEST AIR IN THE SURFACE HIGH. BY LATE SAT...MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SLOWLY AMPLIFY AND ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM THE BIG BEND. ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE...NOT WILLING TO
INTRODUCE PRECIP MENTION JUST YET AS THE LL PRESSURE RIDGE MAY
PROVE MUCH DEEPER AND END UP THWARTING PRECIP ALTOGETHER.

STILL NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ECMWF INSISTS
ON A SHARPER TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST COMPLETE WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LOCALLY BY MON/TUE. THE GFS IS MUTED ENTIRELY WITH THESE
FEATURES BUT STILL DELIVERS AN UNSETTLED NWLY FLOW REGIME UNDER
CONTINUED LL MOISTENING. EVEN THOUGH MOS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS
ARE BULLISH WITH POPS FROM MON-WED...WILL KEEP PRECIP MENTION SHY
OF 20 PERCENT FOR NOW UNTIL THIS PICTURE HOPEFULLY TRENDS CLEARER
IN LATER RUNS. HI TEMPS SHOULD UNDERGO A VERY SLOW RECOVERY
FOLLOWING THE UNSEASONABLY COOL START TO THE WEEKEND AND THREAT OF
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS FOR DAYS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  58  60  43  67 /  50  70  70  10  10
TULIA         78  59  60  44  67 /  40  60  80  10  10
PLAINVIEW     79  60  62  45  63 /  60  60  80  10  10
LEVELLAND     79  61  64  45  62 /  60  70  80  20  10
LUBBOCK       80  62  63  48  62 /  60  70  80  10  10
DENVER CITY   80  62  65  45  62 /  30  70  80  30  10
BROWNFIELD    80  62  65  46  62 /  50  70  80  20  10
CHILDRESS     81  62  64  50  70 /  20  40  70  10  10
SPUR          81  62  65  49  67 /  30  60  80  10  10
ASPERMONT     81  63  68  50  68 /  20  60  70  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/55
342
FXUS64 KLUB 111134
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
634 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TS APPROACHING LUBBOCK FROM THE WEST IN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE VALID TIME. HOWEVER CONCENTRATION OF
TS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT MENTION INTO THAT TAF. STILL...
CHANCES ARE NON-ZERO OF THAT POSSIBLE OCCURENCE THERE BEFORE 15Z.
FOR KCDS...LOW CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND NE SHOULD
BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS THERE THIS
MORNING. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO RAIN EVENT OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
DEFINITELY FAVORED OVER THUNDER AT THAT TIME AND HAVE INSERTED
MENTION IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS THIS MORNING REMAINS ON INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT. UAA
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WHILE MODELS PROG A FAIRLY MODEST 50 KT UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK EJECTING FROM THIS LOW TODAY MOVING FROM NRN MEXICO ACROSS
FAR WEST TEXAS AND ERN NEW MEXICO. ENOUGH LIFT FROM THIS JET STREAK
INTERACTING WITH DEEP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NWD FROM THE
ERN PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO TO GENERATE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THAT WILL SPREAD NEWD/EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOCUSING ON THE OVERNIGHT
06Z TO 12Z PERIOD STILL LOOKS GOOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MUCH SLOWER TO DEVELOP IN
NARROW ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COOL...MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
FROM ERN NM TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND AS OF 08Z RADAR IMAGERY
FINALLY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME VERY ISOLATED RETURNS. MODELS REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS MODEST LIFT INTERACTING WITH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME PRECIP THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A QUIET
PERIOD OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE MECHANISM
DISCUSSED ABOVE BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA...ALTHOUGH WITH
MOISTURE IN PLACE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH PEAK HEATING. THAT HEATING WILL BE
LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND COOL AIR MASS WITH FCST HIGHS FIVE TO TEN
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...
WELCOME RAINFALL APPEARS NEARLY CERTAIN FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS ON FRI AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT
INTERCEPT A DEEPENING PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ATOP WEST TX.
SOME PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THANKS TO
A ZONAL CORRIDOR OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND 305K AIDED BY THE UL
JET MAX DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE. ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR NWRN ZONES BY MID-MORNING COULD CERTAINLY
GARNER SOME MESOSCALE BANDING WITH ENHANCED PRECIP RATES...BUT
BY THE AFTN THIS FRONT WILL BE EXITING TO OUR SOUTH FOLLOWED BY
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
A PROGRESSIVE DECAY OF PRECIP FROM N-S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN THE ONLY SATURATED LAYERS BECOMING CONFINED TO THE
LOWEST 5K FEET OR SO...A TRADEMARK COMMONLY ASSOCIATED WITH
DRIZZLE. THE NAM MAINTAINS AN AXIS OF ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL ASCENT
UNDER THE DECAYING ANTICYCLONIC JET STREAK FROM MEXICO...BUT THIS
AND ITS ASSOCIATED QPF BANDS BY FRI NIGHT ARE BEING DISMISSED IN
FAVOR OF WPC/S DRIER RECOMMENDATION. ANOTHER CHALLENGE ON FRI IS
HIGH TEMPS AS THE TIMING OF COLD FROPA WILL GUARANTEE TEMPS
END UP FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAW MODELS HAVE WIDESPREAD
LOWER 50S BEFORE SUNSET AND THIS APPEARS LEGITIMATE UPON LOOKING
AT THE CHILLY AIR MASS PRESENTLY OCCUPYING THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE WESTERN EXTENT OF COOL SURFACE RIDGING IS NOW PROGGED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED BY THE
CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND IN HIGH TEMPS PER MEX GUIDANCE. ANY
BREAKS IN THE STRATUS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS OUR NRN-ERN ZONES
NEAREST THE DRIEST AIR IN THE SURFACE HIGH. BY LATE SAT...MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SLOWLY AMPLIFY AND ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM THE BIG BEND. ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE...NOT WILLING TO
INTRODUCE PRECIP MENTION JUST YET AS THE LL PRESSURE RIDGE MAY
PROVE MUCH DEEPER AND END UP THWARTING PRECIP ALTOGETHER.

STILL NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ECMWF INSISTS
ON A SHARPER TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST COMPLETE WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LOCALLY BY MON/TUE. THE GFS IS MUTED ENTIRELY WITH THESE
FEATURES BUT STILL DELIVERS AN UNSETTLED NWLY FLOW REGIME UNDER
CONTINUED LL MOISTENING. EVEN THOUGH MOS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS
ARE BULLISH WITH POPS FROM MON-WED...WILL KEEP PRECIP MENTION SHY
OF 20 PERCENT FOR NOW UNTIL THIS PICTURE HOPEFULLY TRENDS CLEARER
IN LATER RUNS. HI TEMPS SHOULD UNDERGO A VERY SLOW RECOVERY
FOLLOWING THE UNSEASONABLY COOL START TO THE WEEKEND AND THREAT OF
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS FOR DAYS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  58  60  43  67 /  20  70  70  10  10
TULIA         78  59  60  44  67 /  20  60  80  10  10
PLAINVIEW     79  60  62  45  63 /  20  60  80  10  10
LEVELLAND     79  61  64  45  62 /  30  70  80  20  10
LUBBOCK       80  62  63  48  62 /  20  70  80  10  10
DENVER CITY   80  62  65  45  62 /  30  70  80  30  10
BROWNFIELD    80  62  65  46  62 /  30  70  80  20  10
CHILDRESS     81  62  64  50  70 /  20  40  70  10  10
SPUR          81  62  65  49  67 /  20  60  80  10  10
ASPERMONT     81  63  68  50  68 /  20  60  70  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93/07
640
FXUS64 KLUB 110928
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
428 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...
FOCUS THIS MORNING REMAINS ON INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT. UAA
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WHILE MODELS PROG A FAIRLY MODEST 50 KT UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK EJECTING FROM THIS LOW TODAY MOVING FROM NRN MEXICO ACROSS
FAR WEST TEXAS AND ERN NEW MEXICO. ENOUGH LIFT FROM THIS JET STREAK
INTERACTING WITH DEEP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NWD FROM THE
ERN PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO TO GENERATE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THAT WILL SPREAD NEWD/EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOCUSING ON THE OVERNIGHT
06Z TO 12Z PERIOD STILL LOOKS GOOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MUCH SLOWER TO DEVELOP IN
NARROW ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COOL...MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
FROM ERN NM TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND AS OF 08Z RADAR IMAGERY
FINALLY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME VERY ISOLATED RETURNS. MODELS REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS MODEST LIFT INTERACTING WITH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME PRECIP THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A QUIET
PERIOD OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE MECHANISM
DISCUSSED ABOVE BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA...ALTHOUGH WITH
MOISTURE IN PLACE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH PEAK HEATING. THAT HEATING WILL BE
LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND COOL AIR MASS WITH FCST HIGHS FIVE TO TEN
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WELCOME RAINFALL APPEARS NEARLY CERTAIN FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS ON FRI AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT
INTERCEPT A DEEPENING PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ATOP WEST TX.
SOME PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THANKS TO
A ZONAL CORRIDOR OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND 305K AIDED BY THE UL
JET MAX DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE. ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR NWRN ZONES BY MID-MORNING COULD CERTAINLY
GARNER SOME MESOSCALE BANDING WITH ENHANCED PRECIP RATES...BUT
BY THE AFTN THIS FRONT WILL BE EXITING TO OUR SOUTH FOLLOWED BY
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
A PROGRESSIVE DECAY OF PRECIP FROM N-S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN THE ONLY SATURATED LAYERS BECOMING CONFINED TO THE
LOWEST 5K FEET OR SO...A TRADEMARK COMMONLY ASSOCIATED WITH
DRIZZLE. THE NAM MAINTAINS AN AXIS OF ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL ASCENT
UNDER THE DECAYING ANTICYCLONIC JET STREAK FROM MEXICO...BUT THIS
AND ITS ASSOCIATED QPF BANDS BY FRI NIGHT ARE BEING DISMISSED IN
FAVOR OF WPC/S DRIER RECOMMENDATION. ANOTHER CHALLENGE ON FRI IS
HIGH TEMPS AS THE TIMING OF COLD FROPA WILL GUARANTEE TEMPS
END UP FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAW MODELS HAVE WIDESPREAD
LOWER 50S BEFORE SUNSET AND THIS APPEARS LEGITIMATE UPON LOOKING
AT THE CHILLY AIR MASS PRESENTLY OCCUPYING THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE WESTERN EXTENT OF COOL SURFACE RIDGING IS NOW PROGGED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED BY THE
CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND IN HIGH TEMPS PER MEX GUIDANCE. ANY
BREAKS IN THE STRATUS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS OUR NRN-ERN ZONES
NEAREST THE DRIEST AIR IN THE SURFACE HIGH. BY LATE SAT...MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SLOWLY AMPLIFY AND ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM THE BIG BEND. ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE...NOT WILLING TO
INTRODUCE PRECIP MENTION JUST YET AS THE LL PRESSURE RIDGE MAY
PROVE MUCH DEEPER AND END UP THWARTING PRECIP ALTOGETHER.

STILL NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ECMWF INSISTS
ON A SHARPER TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST COMPLETE WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LOCALLY BY MON/TUE. THE GFS IS MUTED ENTIRELY WITH THESE
FEATURES BUT STILL DELIVERS AN UNSETTLED NWLY FLOW REGIME UNDER
CONTINUED LL MOISTENING. EVEN THOUGH MOS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS
ARE BULLISH WITH POPS FROM MON-WED...WILL KEEP PRECIP MENTION SHY
OF 20 PERCENT FOR NOW UNTIL THIS PICTURE HOPEFULLY TRENDS CLEARER
IN LATER RUNS. HI TEMPS SHOULD UNDERGO A VERY SLOW RECOVERY
FOLLOWING THE UNSEASONABLY COOL START TO THE WEEKEND AND THREAT OF
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS FOR DAYS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  58  60  43  67 /  20  70  70  10  10
TULIA         78  59  60  44  67 /  20  60  80  10  10
PLAINVIEW     79  60  62  45  63 /  20  60  80  10  10
LEVELLAND     79  61  64  45  62 /  30  70  80  20  10
LUBBOCK       80  62  63  48  62 /  20  70  80  10  10
DENVER CITY   80  62  65  45  62 /  30  70  80  30  10
BROWNFIELD    80  62  65  46  62 /  30  70  80  20  10
CHILDRESS     81  62  64  50  70 /  20  40  70  10  10
SPUR          81  62  65  49  67 /  20  60  80  10  10
ASPERMONT     81  63  68  50  68 /  20  60  70  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93
544
FXUS64 KLUB 110503
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1203 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION
BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF BOTH TERMINALS. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH
MENTION TONIGHT FOR KLBB AS INCREASING LIFT TRIES TO DEVELOP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWERING CEILINGS SHOULD COMMENCE BY THURSDAY
MORNING...SO HAVE LEFT MVFR MENTION IN UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON FOR
BOTH TERMINALS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS TAKE OVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014/

UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS TRIED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT JUST DIDN/T ALLOW
THEM TO TAKE ROOT. WE HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 06 UTC/1 AM AS IT
APPEARS THE WEATHER WILL BE PRETTY QUIET FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER...WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EDGES CLOSER
TOWARD WTX...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT /AS CAN BE SEEN WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER IN NM/. AND WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME
LOW-LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE STALLING
FRONT IN THE PERMIAN BASIN. MUCH OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM SE NM INTO THE SRN AND
WRN SOUTH PLAINS...AND POTENTIALLY SPREADING EAST THROUGH ABOUT 12
UTC. THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL BE FAVORED AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED...BUT COULD BRING SOME LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS. WE HAVE ALSO DECREASED CLOUD COVER IN LINE WITH CURRENT
OBS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL COUNTIES IN THE FA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KENT AND STONEWALL. TEMPS HAVE BEHAVED PRETTY WELL THIS
AFTERNOON AS THIS FRONT WAS NOT OVERLY STRONG. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
PRETTY WELL BEHAVED AS WELL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING THE
FA AND WITH LOW STRATUS STAYING NORTH OF THE FA. THAT WILL CHANGE
LATER THIS EVENING. WV SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE RAPIDLY MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
IN...A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND
WILL HELP DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
LIFTING FORCE TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE ISENTROPIC LIFTING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH FORCING BEING RATHER
WEAK RAIN ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT DESPITE PWATS AVERAGING
OVER 1.5 INCHES. HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS IN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
BREAK AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL BE PRESENT INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO START TOMORROW
AFTERNOON STARTING MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AS A UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING TOMORROW AS THE FA GETS PUT ON
THE EDGE OF THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A MUCH STRONGER JET POSITIONED
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS ROUND OF PRECIP HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED TO NIGHT DUE TO PWATS OVER
1.5 INCHES...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...AND MORE AVAILABLE LIFT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT IN
PART THANKS TO THE FRONT BUT WILL BE MODERATED DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH WEAK CAA WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S TOMORROW WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS SEEING TEMPS
AROUND 80. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GOOD RAIN CHANCES COMING THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. CONTINUED CLOUDY AND COOL SATURDAY WITH DIMINISHING
RAIN CHANCES.  WARMER SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS LEANING TOWARD IMPROVED RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION REINFORCING THE UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WHILE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MINOR DISTURBANCES AND VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIR
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION.  SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
BEST LIFT OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY.  BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE WE HAVE
INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER.  THE ONGOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOLLOWS GUIDANCE CLOSELY AND HAS CHANGED LITTLE.  THE COOLEST DAY
SHOULD BE OUR WET FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.  LIPE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  57  78  57  59 /  10  20  20  70  80
TULIA         83  57  78  56  61 /  10  20  20  70  80
PLAINVIEW     85  58  78  58  62 /  10  30  20  70  80
LEVELLAND     87  60  77  59  65 /  10  30  20  70  80
LUBBOCK       90  60  76  59  65 /  10  30  20  70  80
DENVER CITY   90  63  77  60  67 /  10  30  30  60  80
BROWNFIELD    91  62  78  60  66 /  10  30  40  70  80
CHILDRESS     89  62  80  61  65 /  10  20  20  60  80
SPUR          89  64  77  62  68 /  10  30  20  70  80
ASPERMONT     99  67  80  64  71 /  20  30  30  60  70

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
264
FXUS64 KLUB 110243 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
943 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS TRIED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT JUST DIDN/T ALLOW
THEM TO TAKE ROOT. WE HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 06 UTC/1 AM AS IT
APPEARS THE WEATHER WILL BE PRETTY QUIET FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER...WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EDGES CLOSER
TOWARD WTX...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT /AS CAN BE SEEN WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER IN NM/. AND WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME
LOW-LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE STALLING
FRONT IN THE PERMIAN BASIN. MUCH OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM SE NM INTO THE SRN AND
WRN SOUTH PLAINS...AND POTENTIALLY SPREADING EAST THROUGH ABOUT 12
UTC. THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL BE FAVORED AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED...BUT COULD BRING SOME LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS. WE HAVE ALSO DECREASED CLOUD COVER IN LINE WITH CURRENT
OBS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS A POSSIBILITY LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...MORESO AT KLBB THAN KCDS. WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE
VCSH MENTION AT KLBB FROM 5-10Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE THE OTHER
ISSUE COME EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE INSERTED MVFR CEILINGS
FOR BOTH SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING SOMETIME EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL COUNTIES IN THE FA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KENT AND STONEWALL. TEMPS HAVE BEHAVED PRETTY WELL THIS
AFTERNOON AS THIS FRONT WAS NOT OVERLY STRONG. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
PRETTY WELL BEHAVED AS WELL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING THE
FA AND WITH LOW STRATUS STAYING NORTH OF THE FA. THAT WILL CHANGE
LATER THIS EVENING. WV SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE RAPIDLY MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
IN...A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND
WILL HELP DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
LIFTING FORCE TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE ISENTROPIC LIFTING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH FORCING BEING RATHER
WEAK RAIN ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT DESPITE PWATS AVERAGING
OVER 1.5 INCHES. HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS IN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
BREAK AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL BE PRESENT INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO START TOMORROW
AFTERNOON STARTING MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AS A UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING TOMORROW AS THE FA GETS PUT ON
THE EDGE OF THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A MUCH STRONGER JET POSITIONED
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS ROUND OF PRECIP HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED TO NIGHT DUE TO PWATS OVER
1.5 INCHES...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...AND MORE AVAILABLE LIFT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT IN
PART THANKS TO THE FRONT BUT WILL BE MODERATED DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH WEAK CAA WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S TOMORROW WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS SEEING TEMPS
AROUND 80. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GOOD RAIN CHANCES COMING THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. CONTINUED CLOUDY AND COOL SATURDAY WITH DIMINISHING
RAIN CHANCES.  WARMER SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS LEANING TOWARD IMPROVED RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION REINFORCING THE UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WHILE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MINOR DISTURBANCES AND VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIR
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION.  SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
BEST LIFT OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY.  BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE WE HAVE
INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER.  THE ONGOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOLLOWS GUIDANCE CLOSELY AND HAS CHANGED LITTLE.  THE COOLEST DAY
SHOULD BE OUR WET FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.  LIPE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        57  78  57  59  42 /  20  20  70  80  20
TULIA         57  78  56  61  45 /  20  20  70  80  20
PLAINVIEW     58  78  58  62  46 /  30  20  70  80  20
LEVELLAND     60  77  59  65  49 /  30  20  70  80  30
LUBBOCK       60  76  59  65  49 /  30  20  70  80  20
DENVER CITY   63  77  60  67  50 /  30  30  60  80  30
BROWNFIELD    62  78  60  66  50 /  30  40  70  80  30
CHILDRESS     62  80  61  65  50 /  20  20  60  80  20
SPUR          64  77  62  68  50 /  30  20  70  80  20
ASPERMONT     67  80  64  71  52 /  30  30  60  70  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/33
103
FXUS64 KLUB 102357
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
657 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS A POSSIBILITY LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...MORESO AT KLBB THAN KCDS. WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE
VCSH MENTION AT KLBB FROM 5-10Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE THE OTHER
ISSUE COME EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE INSERTED MVFR CEILINGS
FOR BOTH SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING SOMETIME EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL COUNTIES IN THE FA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KENT AND STONEWALL. TEMPS HAVE BEHAVED PRETTY WELL THIS
AFTERNOON AS THIS FRONT WAS NOT OVERLY STRONG. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
PRETTY WELL BEHAVED AS WELL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING THE
FA AND WITH LOW STRATUS STAYING NORTH OF THE FA. THAT WILL CHANGE
LATER THIS EVENING. WV SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE RAPIDLY MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
IN...A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND
WILL HELP DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
LIFTING FORCE TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE ISENTROPIC LIFTING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH FORCING BEING RATHER
WEAK RAIN ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT DESPITE PWATS AVERAGING
OVER 1.5 INCHES. HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS IN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
BREAK AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL BE PRESENT INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO START TOMORROW
AFTERNOON STARTING MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AS A UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING TOMORROW AS THE FA GETS PUT ON
THE EDGE OF THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A MUCH STRONGER JET POSITIONED
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS ROUND OF PRECIP HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED TO NIGHT DUE TO PWATS OVER
1.5 INCHES...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...AND MORE AVAILABLE LIFT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT IN
PART THANKS TO THE FRONT BUT WILL BE MODERATED DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH WEAK CAA WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S TOMORROW WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS SEEING TEMPS
AROUND 80. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GOOD RAIN CHANCES COMING THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. CONTINUED CLOUDY AND COOL SATURDAY WITH DIMINISHING
RAIN CHANCES.  WARMER SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS LEANING TOWARD IMPROVED RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION REINFORCING THE UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WHILE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MINOR DISTURBANCES AND VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIR
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION.  SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
BEST LIFT OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY.  BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE WE HAVE
INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER.  THE ONGOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOLLOWS GUIDANCE CLOSELY AND HAS CHANGED LITTLE.  THE COOLEST DAY
SHOULD BE OUR WET FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.  LIPE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        57  78  57  59  42 /  20  20  70  80  20
TULIA         57  78  56  61  45 /  20  20  70  80  20
PLAINVIEW     58  78  58  62  46 /  30  20  70  80  20
LEVELLAND     60  77  59  65  49 /  30  20  70  80  30
LUBBOCK       60  76  59  65  49 /  30  20  70  80  20
DENVER CITY   63  77  60  67  50 /  30  30  60  80  30
BROWNFIELD    62  78  60  66  50 /  30  40  70  80  30
CHILDRESS     62  80  61  65  50 /  20  20  60  80  20
SPUR          64  77  62  68  50 /  30  20  70  80  20
ASPERMONT     67  80  64  71  52 /  30  30  60  70  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
027
FXUS64 KLUB 102017
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
317 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL COUNTIES IN THE FA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KENT AND STONEWALL. TEMPS HAVE BEHAVED PRETTY WELL THIS
AFTERNOON AS THIS FRONT WAS NOT OVERLY STRONG. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
PRETTY WELL BEHAVED AS WELL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING THE
FA AND WITH LOW STRATUS STAYING NORTH OF THE FA. THAT WILL CHANGE
LATER THIS EVENING. WV SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE RAPIDLY MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
IN...A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND
WILL HELP DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
LIFTING FORCE TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE ISENTROPIC LIFTING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH FORCING BEING RATHER
WEAK RAIN ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT DESPITE PWATS AVERAGING
OVER 1.5 INCHES. HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS IN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
BREAK AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL BE PRESENT INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO START TOMORROW
AFTERNOON STARTING MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AS A UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING TOMORROW AS THE FA GETS PUT ON
THE EDGE OF THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A MUCH STRONGER JET POSITIONED
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS ROUND OF PRECIP HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED TO NIGHT DUE TO PWATS OVER
1.5 INCHES...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...AND MORE AVAILABLE LIFT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT IN
PART THANKS TO THE FRONT BUT WILL BE MODERATED DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH WEAK CAA WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S TOMORROW WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS SEEING TEMPS
AROUND 80. ALDRICH

&&

.LONG TERM...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GOOD RAIN CHANCES COMING THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. CONTINUED CLOUDY AND COOL SATURDAY WITH DIMINISHING
RAIN CHANCES.  WARMER SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS LEANING TOWARD IMPROVED RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION REINFORCING THE UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WHILE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MINOR DISTURBANCES AND VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIR
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION.  SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
BEST LIFT OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY.  BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE WE HAVE
INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER.  THE ONGOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOLLOWS GUIDANCE CLOSELY AND HAS CHANGED LITTLE.  THE COOLEST DAY
SHOULD BE OUR WET FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.  LIPE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        57  78  57  59  42 /  20  20  70  80  20
TULIA         57  78  56  61  45 /  20  20  70  80  20
PLAINVIEW     58  78  58  62  46 /  30  20  70  80  20
LEVELLAND     60  77  59  65  49 /  30  20  70  80  30
LUBBOCK       60  76  59  65  49 /  30  20  70  80  20
DENVER CITY   63  77  60  67  50 /  30  30  60  80  30
BROWNFIELD    62  78  60  66  50 /  30  40  70  80  30
CHILDRESS     62  80  61  65  50 /  20  20  60  80  20
SPUR          64  77  62  68  50 /  30  20  70  80  20
ASPERMONT     67  80  64  71  52 /  30  30  60  70  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/04
369
FXUS64 KLUB 101732
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1232 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

.AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE VEERING TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
LOWERING AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY AT LBB. CIGS AT LBB BY 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING WILL BE IN THE MVRF CATEGORY WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE. CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY 18Z TOMORROW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY AT
LBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING IS A BIT
AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND WILL FCST ITS PROGRESSION INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM IS INDICATING. THE FRONT MAY
HANG UP ACROSS THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT
SOME CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
THIS EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING...AND WHETHER THAT IS IN THE FCST
AREA OR JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST IS ONE OF THE QUESTIONS
TODAY. WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF
THE FRONT STALLING BEFORE EXITING THE FCST AREA. OTHER ISSUE WITH
UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION IS TODAYS HIGH TEMPS.
THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 100F
IN THE SE BUT LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET PAST 80F IN THE NW.

OVERNIGHT WILL SEE THE SWRN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE GOOD LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTENING WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. IN
ADDITION...THERE MAY BE END UP BEING A CONNECTION TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE AS DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NRN MEXICO COULD BE DRAWN NEWD
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SCENARIO FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IS
PLAUSIBLE AND WILL BUMP POPS UP SOME MAINLY FOR THE SRN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FCST AREA...ALTHOUGH AM NOT QUITE READY TO JUMP ON BOARD THE
QUITE WET NAM AND THE HIGH POPS IN ITS ASSOCIATED OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...
GREATEST CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE INCLUDED RAISING POPS
TO LIKELIES OVER A LARGE AREA FRI MORNING AND LOWERING MAX TEMPS
A BIT FURTHER ON SATURDAY.

THURSDAY BEGINS WITH A ZONAL RIBBON OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAINLY
OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. EVEN WITH WEAK ASCENT...WOULD EXPECT
SOME REMNANT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FROM WED NIGHT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MRNG HOURS. THEREAFTER...A LULL OF SOME
DEGREE APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS THE FRONTAL ZONE ALOFT DECAYS WHILE
LIFTING NORTHWARD. MUCH OF THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED MASS
FIELD CONVERGENCE IN SERN CO ALONG A SFC LOW AND MUCH-ANTICIPATED
STRONG COLD FRONT. OPTED TO KEEP SOME POPS INTACT THU EVENING
BEFORE RAMPING THESE VALUES UP THRU FRI MORNING AS THE DEEPEST
MOISTENING AND FRONTAL ASCENT UNFOLD. ON THAT NOTE...THE NAM IS
A RATHER SLOW OUTLIER THIS FROPA AND IS NOT PREFERRED GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR BEING SOURCED AND THE WESTERLY
LONGITUDE OF A 1036MB SURFACE HIGH. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO THE POPS AND AVOID LINGERING THIS MENTION
FOR AN UNNECESSARILY LONG DURATION. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT LOOK RESPECTABLE ENUF TO HELP TRANSPORT SOME 25 KNOT WINDS
TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES.

BY FRI AFTN...PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN FROM N-S...BUT
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A REASONABLE CHANCE OF DRIZZLE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT THANKS TO A SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION WITH LOW
STRATUS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW LAST SAT/SUN. EVEN WITH THESE
CLOUDS...THE DEGREE OF CAA /850MB TEMPS OF 4-8 DEG C/ WARRANTS
SOME CHILLY LOWS BY SAT MRNG. CONSIDERING AN EXTENSION OF THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER THE REGION
THRU AT LEAST SAT NIGHT...AM HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME ACCEPTING THE
RAPID TEMP RECOVERY PROGGED BY MEX MOSTLY DUE TO ITS HEAVIER
WEIGHTING OF CLIMATOLOGY IN THESE MORE DISTANT PERIODS. THIS VERY
DILEMMA CAN BE SEEN BY COMPARING MAX TEMPS FOR SAT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. THE THEME HAS BEEN OVERWHELMINGLY COOLER WITH
EACH RUN AND GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUDS NOT BUDGING UNDER
EASTERLY FLOW THRU MOST OF SAT...TEMPS SHOULD BE STUNTED
ACCORDINGLY. SLY FLOW BY SUN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
SHOULD BOOST TEMPS MORE AGGRESSIVELY AND FINALLY RID OF THE LOW
CLOUDS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE PICTURE BY MON/TUE AS A
TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPEAR MUCH LESS THAN FRIDAY/S FRONT AND
THUS LESS CERTAIN FOR SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  57  75  57  61 /  10  20  20  40  60
TULIA         82  60  75  56  61 /  10  20  20  40  60
PLAINVIEW     83  60  76  58  62 /  10  20  20  40  60
LEVELLAND     84  60  75  59  66 /  10  30  20  30  60
LUBBOCK       88  61  75  59  65 /  10  30  20  30  60
DENVER CITY   88  63  77  60  69 /  10  30  20  30  60
BROWNFIELD    88  62  77  60  67 /  10  30  20  30  60
CHILDRESS     89  62  77  61  65 /  10  20  20  30  60
SPUR          90  64  77  62  68 /  10  30  20  30  60
ASPERMONT     98  66  81  64  71 /  20  30  20  30  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/26/51
441
FXUS64 KLUB 101114
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
614 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO MOVE PAST BOTH TERMINALS
VERY EARLY IN THE FCST. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL MAKE A PUSH TOWARD
KCDS BUT ANTICIPATE THEM STAYING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THERE
WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE AT BRIEF MVFR CIGS. OVERNIGHT WILL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...FAVORING KLBB OVER KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING IS A BIT
AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND WILL FCST ITS PROGRESSION INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM IS INDICATING. THE FRONT MAY
HANG UP ACROSS THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT
SOME CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
THIS EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING...AND WHETHER THAT IS IN THE FCST
AREA OR JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST IS ONE OF THE QUESTIONS
TODAY. WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF
THE FRONT STALLING BEFORE EXITING THE FCST AREA. OTHER ISSUE WITH
UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION IS TODAYS HIGH TEMPS.
THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 100F
IN THE SE BUT LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET PAST 80F IN THE NW.

OVERNIGHT WILL SEE THE SWRN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE GOOD LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTENING WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. IN
ADDITION...THERE MAY BE END UP BEING A CONNECTION TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE AS DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NRN MEXICO COULD BE DRAWN NEWD
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SCENARIO FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IS
PLAUSIBLE AND WILL BUMP POPS UP SOME MAINLY FOR THE SRN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FCST AREA...ALTHOUGH AM NOT QUITE READY TO JUMP ON BOARD THE
QUITE WET NAM AND THE HIGH POPS IN ITS ASSOCIATED OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...
GREATEST CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE INCLUDED RAISING POPS
TO LIKELIES OVER A LARGE AREA FRI MORNING AND LOWERING MAX TEMPS
A BIT FURTHER ON SATURDAY.

THURSDAY BEGINS WITH A ZONAL RIBBON OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAINLY
OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. EVEN WITH WEAK ASCENT...WOULD EXPECT
SOME REMNANT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FROM WED NIGHT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MRNG HOURS. THEREAFTER...A LULL OF SOME
DEGREE APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS THE FRONTAL ZONE ALOFT DECAYS WHILE
LIFTING NORTHWARD. MUCH OF THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED MASS
FIELD CONVERGENCE IN SERN CO ALONG A SFC LOW AND MUCH-ANTICIPATED
STRONG COLD FRONT. OPTED TO KEEP SOME POPS INTACT THU EVENING
BEFORE RAMPING THESE VALUES UP THRU FRI MORNING AS THE DEEPEST
MOISTENING AND FRONTAL ASCENT UNFOLD. ON THAT NOTE...THE NAM IS
A RATHER SLOW OUTLIER THIS FROPA AND IS NOT PREFERRED GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR BEING SOURCED AND THE WESTERLY
LONGITUDE OF A 1036MB SURFACE HIGH. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO THE POPS AND AVOID LINGERING THIS MENTION
FOR AN UNNECESSARILY LONG DURATION. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT LOOK RESPECTABLE ENUF TO HELP TRANSPORT SOME 25 KNOT WINDS
TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES.

BY FRI AFTN...PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN FROM N-S...BUT
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A REASONABLE CHANCE OF DRIZZLE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT THANKS TO A SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION WITH LOW
STRATUS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW LAST SAT/SUN. EVEN WITH THESE
CLOUDS...THE DEGREE OF CAA /850MB TEMPS OF 4-8 DEG C/ WARRANTS
SOME CHILLY LOWS BY SAT MRNG. CONSIDERING AN EXTENSION OF THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER THE REGION
THRU AT LEAST SAT NIGHT...AM HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME ACCEPTING THE
RAPID TEMP RECOVERY PROGGED BY MEX MOSTLY DUE TO ITS HEAVIER
WEIGHTING OF CLIMATOLOGY IN THESE MORE DISTANT PERIODS. THIS VERY
DILEMMA CAN BE SEEN BY COMPARING MAX TEMPS FOR SAT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. THE THEME HAS BEEN OVERWHELMINGLY COOLER WITH
EACH RUN AND GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUDS NOT BUDGING UNDER
EASTERLY FLOW THRU MOST OF SAT...TEMPS SHOULD BE STUNTED
ACCORDINGLY. SLY FLOW BY SUN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
SHOULD BOOST TEMPS MORE AGGRESSIVELY AND FINALLY RID OF THE LOW
CLOUDS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE PICTURE BY MON/TUE AS A
TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPEAR MUCH LESS THAN FRIDAY/S FRONT AND
THUS LESS CERTAIN FOR SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  57  75  57  61 /  10  20  20  40  60
TULIA         82  60  75  56  61 /  10  20  20  40  60
PLAINVIEW     83  60  76  58  62 /  10  20  20  40  60
LEVELLAND     84  60  75  59  66 /  10  30  20  30  60
LUBBOCK       88  61  75  59  65 /  10  30  20  30  60
DENVER CITY   88  63  77  60  69 /  10  30  20  30  60
BROWNFIELD    88  62  77  60  67 /  10  30  20  30  60
CHILDRESS     89  62  77  61  65 /  10  20  20  30  60
SPUR          90  64  77  62  68 /  10  30  20  30  60
ASPERMONT     98  66  81  64  71 /  20  30  20  30  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93/07
025
FXUS64 KLUB 100857
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
357 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING IS A BIT
AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND WILL FCST ITS PROGRESSION INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM IS INDICATING. THE FRONT MAY
HANG UP ACROSS THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT
SOME CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
THIS EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING...AND WHETHER THAT IS IN THE FCST
AREA OR JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST IS ONE OF THE QUESTIONS
TODAY. WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF
THE FRONT STALLING BEFORE EXITING THE FCST AREA. OTHER ISSUE WITH
UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION IS TODAYS HIGH TEMPS.
THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 100F
IN THE SE BUT LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET PAST 80F IN THE NW.

OVERNIGHT WILL SEE THE SWRN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE GOOD LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTENING WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. IN
ADDITION...THERE MAY BE END UP BEING A CONNECTION TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE AS DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NRN MEXICO COULD BE DRAWN NEWD
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SCENARIO FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IS
PLAUSIBLE AND WILL BUMP POPS UP SOME MAINLY FOR THE SRN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FCST AREA...ALTHOUGH AM NOT QUITE READY TO JUMP ON BOARD THE
QUITE WET NAM AND THE HIGH POPS IN ITS ASSOCIATED OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
GREATEST CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE INCLUDED RAISING POPS
TO LIKELIES OVER A LARGE AREA FRI MORNING AND LOWERING MAX TEMPS
A BIT FURTHER ON SATURDAY.

THURSDAY BEGINS WITH A ZONAL RIBBON OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAINLY
OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. EVEN WITH WEAK ASCENT...WOULD EXPECT
SOME REMNANT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FROM WED NIGHT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MRNG HOURS. THEREAFTER...A LULL OF SOME
DEGREE APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS THE FRONTAL ZONE ALOFT DECAYS WHILE
LIFTING NORTHWARD. MUCH OF THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED MASS
FIELD CONVERGENCE IN SERN CO ALONG A SFC LOW AND MUCH-ANTICIPATED
STRONG COLD FRONT. OPTED TO KEEP SOME POPS INTACT THU EVENING
BEFORE RAMPING THESE VALUES UP THRU FRI MORNING AS THE DEEPEST
MOISTENING AND FRONTAL ASCENT UNFOLD. ON THAT NOTE...THE NAM IS
A RATHER SLOW OUTLIER THIS FROPA AND IS NOT PREFERRED GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR BEING SOURCED AND THE WESTERLY
LONGITUDE OF A 1036MB SURFACE HIGH. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO THE POPS AND AVOID LINGERING THIS MENTION
FOR AN UNNECESSARILY LONG DURATION. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT LOOK RESPECTABLE ENUF TO HELP TRANSPORT SOME 25 KNOT WINDS
TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES.

BY FRI AFTN...PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN FROM N-S...BUT
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A REASONABLE CHANCE OF DRIZZLE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT THANKS TO A SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION WITH LOW
STRATUS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW LAST SAT/SUN. EVEN WITH THESE
CLOUDS...THE DEGREE OF CAA /850MB TEMPS OF 4-8 DEG C/ WARRANTS
SOME CHILLY LOWS BY SAT MRNG. CONSIDERING AN EXTENSION OF THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER THE REGION
THRU AT LEAST SAT NIGHT...AM HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME ACCEPTING THE
RAPID TEMP RECOVERY PROGGED BY MEX MOSTLY DUE TO ITS HEAVIER
WEIGHTING OF CLIMATOLOGY IN THESE MORE DISTANT PERIODS. THIS VERY
DILEMMA CAN BE SEEN BY COMPARING MAX TEMPS FOR SAT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. THE THEME HAS BEEN OVERWHELMINGLY COOLER WITH
EACH RUN AND GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUDS NOT BUDGING UNDER
EASTERLY FLOW THRU MOST OF SAT...TEMPS SHOULD BE STUNTED
ACCORDINGLY. SLY FLOW BY SUN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
SHOULD BOOST TEMPS MORE AGGRESSIVELY AND FINALLY RID OF THE LOW
CLOUDS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE PICTURE BY MON/TUE AS A
TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPEAR MUCH LESS THAN FRIDAY/S FRONT AND
THUS LESS CERTAIN FOR SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  57  75  57  61 /  10  20  20  40  60
TULIA         82  60  75  56  61 /  10  20  20  40  60
PLAINVIEW     83  60  76  58  62 /  10  20  20  40  60
LEVELLAND     84  60  75  59  66 /  10  30  20  30  60
LUBBOCK       88  61  75  59  65 /  10  30  20  30  60
DENVER CITY   88  63  77  60  69 /  10  30  20  30  60
BROWNFIELD    88  62  77  60  67 /  10  30  20  30  60
CHILDRESS     89  62  77  61  65 /  10  20  20  30  60
SPUR          90  64  77  62  68 /  10  30  20  30  60
ASPERMONT     98  66  81  64  71 /  20  30  20  30  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93
291
FXUS64 KLUB 100443
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1143 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014


.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT THROUGH BOTH
TERMINALS BETWEEN ABOUT 11 UTC AND 15 UTC...SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE OF -TSRA IN THE
VICINITY OF KLBB WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
BUT ANY THREAT OF LOW CEILINGS SHOULD BE BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY SRLY
WINDS WILL RELAX AFTER 01 UTC OR SO. WEDNESDAY MORNING...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND BRING A NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 12 AND 16 UTC.
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY INCREASE DURING THE FROPA BUT SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 3K FT AGL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN AN EXPANSION OF CU FIELD
FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WOULD BE
ELEVATED AND RELATIVELY WEAK...ALTHOUGH GIVEN SOUNDING PROFILES A
DOWNBURST CANT BE RULED OUT FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT MAY
FORM...OTHERWISE AS THE SUN SETS GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECLINE ALONG WITH THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
ARRIVING IN THE SOUTH PLAINS AROUND SUNRISE...THIS IS THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL COLD FRONTS AFFECTING OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
WILL RESULT IN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS...WEDNESDAYS HIGHS
WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S FOR THE MOST PART WHICH IS NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ALSO ADJUSTED POPS UP SLIGHTLY BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS OR T-STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WEDNESDAY
MORNING COLD FRONT IS LOW DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY SURFACE
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONVERGING WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT
PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS.

LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ENHANCED
UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY LINES UP WITH SECOND COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRANSFER
EAST ACROSS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN SHOWER/T-STORM ACTIVITY
MOVING OUT OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...
INITIAL CDFNT SHOULD BE THROUGH CWA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WED EVENING. BEST FORCING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT WILL EXIST FROM SE OK ACROSS NW TX INTO THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS CLOSER TO THE TAIL END OF THE EXITING SHRTWV. FURTHER W
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE POST FRONTAL
INTO THE EVENING PRIMARILY FROM SE NM INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE
CWA AS NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. OVERNIGHT WED DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL HELP MAINTAIN HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT ADDING ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR SCT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE. PRECIP CHANCE THU INTO THU EVENING MORE UNCERTAIN AS
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HOLDS DOWN SFC HEATING AND LAPSE RATES
LESSEN WITH TIME. LEFT SLIGHT CHC POPS IN FORECAST AS MODELS
MAINTAIN SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER THE REGION AS BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MERGES WITH WSW FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ELONGATED
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. BEST RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SURGE OF RATHER CHILLY CANADIAN AIR ON FRI. BETTER FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT FRI LEAVING A CLOUD AND COOL DAY SAT. COOLEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE FRI WHEN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE FALLING
ALONG WITH H8 TEMPS. LEFT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR NOW ON FRI WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINNING SAT. GFS DOES ATTEMPT TO BRING
SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT AROUND THE REBUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE ON
SUN AND MODELS DO GENERATE ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE PAC
SIMILAR TO NORBERTS TRACK. IF THESE FEATURES REMAIN PROMINENT THE
NEXT FORECAST CYCLE MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER INCREASING POPS LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  82  55  75  57 /  20  20  20  20  30
TULIA         67  84  55  75  56 /  20  20  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     67  86  58  76  58 /  20  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     68  88  63  75  59 /  10  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       68  89  60  75  59 /  10  20  20  20  30
DENVER CITY   68  90  63  77  60 /  10  20  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    70  92  64  77  60 /  10  20  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     74  90  61  77  61 /  10  20  20  10  30
SPUR          72  92  65  77  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
ASPERMONT     75  95  67  81  64 /  10  20  30  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
947
FXUS64 KLUB 092314
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
614 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY SRLY
WINDS WILL RELAX AFTER 01 UTC OR SO. WEDNESDAY MORNING...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND BRING A NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 12 AND 16 UTC.
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY INCREASE DURING THE FROPA BUT SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 3K FT AGL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN AN EXPANSION OF CU FIELD
FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WOULD BE
ELEVATED AND RELATIVELY WEAK...ALTHOUGH GIVEN SOUNDING PROFILES A
DOWNBURST CANT BE RULED OUT FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT MAY
FORM...OTHERWISE AS THE SUN SETS GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECLINE ALONG WITH THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
ARRIVING IN THE SOUTH PLAINS AROUND SUNRISE...THIS IS THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL COLD FRONTS AFFECTING OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
WILL RESULT IN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS...WEDNESDAYS HIGHS
WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S FOR THE MOST PART WHICH IS NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ALSO ADJUSTED POPS UP SLIGHTLY BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS OR T-STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WEDNESDAY
MORNING COLD FRONT IS LOW DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY SURFACE
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONVERGING WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT
PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS.

LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ENHANCED
UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY LINES UP WITH SECOND COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRANSFER
EAST ACROSS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN SHOWER/T-STORM ACTIVITY
MOVING OUT OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...
INITIAL CDFNT SHOULD BE THROUGH CWA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WED EVENING. BEST FORCING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT WILL EXIST FROM SE OK ACROSS NW TX INTO THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS CLOSER TO THE TAIL END OF THE EXITING SHRTWV. FURTHER W
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE POST FRONTAL
INTO THE EVENING PRIMARILY FROM SE NM INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE
CWA AS NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. OVERNIGHT WED DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL HELP MAINTAIN HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT ADDING ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR SCT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE. PRECIP CHANCE THU INTO THU EVENING MORE UNCERTAIN AS
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HOLDS DOWN SFC HEATING AND LAPSE RATES
LESSEN WITH TIME. LEFT SLIGHT CHC POPS IN FORECAST AS MODELS
MAINTAIN SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER THE REGION AS BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MERGES WITH WSW FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ELONGATED
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. BEST RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SURGE OF RATHER CHILLY CANADIAN AIR ON FRI. BETTER FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT FRI LEAVING A CLOUD AND COOL DAY SAT. COOLEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE FRI WHEN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE FALLING
ALONG WITH H8 TEMPS. LEFT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR NOW ON FRI WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINNING SAT. GFS DOES ATTEMPT TO BRING
SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT AROUND THE REBUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE ON
SUN AND MODELS DO GENERATE ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE PAC
SIMILAR TO NORBERTS TRACK. IF THESE FEATURES REMAIN PROMINENT THE
NEXT FORECAST CYCLE MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER INCREASING POPS LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  82  55  75  57 /  20  20  20  20  30
TULIA         67  84  55  75  56 /  20  20  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     67  86  58  76  58 /  20  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     68  88  63  75  59 /  20  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       68  89  60  75  59 /  10  20  20  20  30
DENVER CITY   68  90  63  77  60 /  20  20  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    70  92  64  77  60 /  10  20  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     74  90  61  77  61 /  10  20  20  10  30
SPUR          72  92  65  77  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
ASPERMONT     75  95  67  81  64 /  10  20  30  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
979
FXUS64 KLUB 092104
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
404 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN AN EXPANSION OF CU FIELD
FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WOULD BE
ELEVATED AND RELATIVELY WEAK...ALTHOUGH GIVEN SOUNDING PROFILES A
DOWNBURST CANT BE RULED OUT FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT MAY
FORM...OTHERWISE AS THE SUN SETS GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECLINE ALONG WITH THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
ARRIVING IN THE SOUTH PLAINS AROUND SUNRISE...THIS IS THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL COLD FRONTS AFFECTING OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
WILL RESULT IN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS...WEDNESDAYS HIGHS
WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S FOR THE MOST PART WHICH IS NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ALSO ADJUSTED POPS UP SLIGHTLY BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS OR TSORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WEDNESDAY MORNING
COLD FRONT IS LOW DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY SURFACE
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONVERGING WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT
PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS.

LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ENHANCED
UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY LINES UP WITH SECOND COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRANSFER
EAST ACROSS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY
MOVING OUT OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
INITIAL CDFNT SHOULD BE THROUGH CWA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WED EVENING. BEST FORCING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT WILL EXIST FROM SE OK ACROSS NW TX INTO THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS CLOSER TO THE TAIL END OF THE EXITING SHRTWV. FURTHER W
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE POST FRONTAL
INTO THE EVENING PRIMARILY FROM SE NM INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE
CWA AS NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. OVERNIGHT WED DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL HELP MAINTAIN HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT ADDING ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR SCT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE. PRECIP CHANCE THU INTO THU EVENING MORE UNCERTAIN AS
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HOLDS DOWN SFC HEATING AND LAPSE RATES
LESSEN WITH TIME. LEFT SLIGHT CHC POPS IN FORECAST AS MODELS
MAINTAIN SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER THE REGION AS BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MERGES WITH WSW FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ELONGATED
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. BEST RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SURGE OF RATHER CHILLY CANADIAN AIR ON FRI. BETTER FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT FRI LEAVING A CLOUD AND COOL DAY SAT. COOLEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE FRI WHEN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE FALLING
ALONG WITH H8 TEMPS. LEFT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR NOW ON FRI WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINNING SAT. GFS DOES ATTEMPT TO BRING
SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT AROUND THE REBUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE ON
SUN AND MODELS DO GENERATE ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE PAC
SIMILAR TO NORBERTS TRACK. IF THESE FEATURES REMAIN PROMINENT THE
NEXT FORECAST CYCLE MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER INCREASING POPS LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  82  55  75  57 /  20  20  20  20  30
TULIA         67  84  55  75  56 /  20  20  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     67  86  58  76  58 /  20  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     68  88  63  75  59 /  20  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       68  89  60  75  59 /  10  20  20  20  30
DENVER CITY   68  90  63  77  60 /  20  20  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    70  92  64  77  60 /  10  20  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     74  90  61  77  61 /  10  20  20  10  30
SPUR          72  92  65  77  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
ASPERMONT     75  95  67  81  64 /  10  20  30  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55/24
224
FXUS64 KLUB 091758 CCA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1254 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.AVIATION...
BREEZY AND VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KLBB LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BUT WOULD BE ELEVATED AND ISOLATED IN NATURE...HOWEVER, THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF DOWNBURSTS FROM ANY
STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP. TSTORMS ARE MORE UNLIKELY AT KCDS.

DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AROUND DAWN WEDNESDAY MORNING...WINDS
BECOME NORTHERLY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FIRST MORNING IN ALMOST A WEEK THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN LOW CLOUDS OR
FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  INSTEAD...WE HAVE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.  00Z UPA ANALYSIS AND WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS THAT DECENT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ALOFT
WITH SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE MOISTURE FIELD OVER THE
REGION.  AT THE SURFACE...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS
THE AREA AND THIS MIX OUT A BIT THROUGH THE DAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AS A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE.  MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE REGION SHOW WEAK CAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 200-500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP IN
PLACE.  COVERAGE REMAINS FAIRLY SPOTTY BUT THE VARIOUS FLAVORS OF
NWP POINT TOWARDS THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW RESULTING IN AROUND 10 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR HELP TO MOVE
STORMS JUST A BIT...IF THEY DEVELOP.  POP GRIDS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE WITH ONLY A MINOR ADJUSTMENT IN COVERAGE.  TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE A BIT WARMER AS SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO A SLOWLY DEEPENING LEE TROF THAT IS FORECAST TO BE LINED
UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE TX/NM STATE LINE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REALLY DOES NOT GET SCOURED OUT AS THE LEE TROF REMAINS
OVER THE AREA...AND AS IT STARTS TO POOL A BIT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT
THAT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-CLIMO TEMPS REMAINS IN THE OFFING LATER THIS
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN PERSISTENT L/W RIDGING FROM THE
ERN PACIFIC NORTH TO ALASKA ALLOWING COLD AIR TO MOTOR SOUTH. THE
FIRST OF TWO UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONTS WAS ALREADY PUSHING
ACROSS MONTANA THIS MORNING COMPLETE WITH LIGHT SNOW JUST NORTH OF
THE BORDER IN SRN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THIS FRONT IS ON TRACK
TO REACH OUR NRN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SLOW A BIT BY THE
AFTN AS IT ENCOUNTERS DEEPER MIXING. THIS DEEP MIXING SHOULD AID
IN PARCELS BREACHING AN EML/LID AND LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
DECIDED TO EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WWD ONTO THE CAPROCK WED AFTN
AS SOUNDINGS HERE ARE COMPARABLY FAVORABLE TO THOSE IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS.

DESPITE THE UPPER FLOW FROM WED THROUGH FRI TRENDING WEAKLY
CYCLONIC...UPPER SUPPORT FOR A REGIONAL PRECIP EVENT IS RATHER
ABSENT. TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE...ROBUST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BE TOUGH TO COME BY UNLIKE LAST FRI/SAT. THIS DOES LOOK TO
CHANGE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE NEXT GLANCING BLOW FROM AN
UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH. GRADUAL BACKING OF WINDS AROUND
700MB FROM SW-SE IS SHOWN TO ADVECT HIGHER PWATS INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS...BUT MEANINGFUL LIFT DURING THIS TIME APPEARS SCARCE. WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS INTACT LATE THU-EARLY FRI...BUT HAVE STARTED
CHIPPING AWAY POPS MORE AGGRESSIVELY FROM NE-SW ON FRI AHEAD OF A
STOUT 1034MB PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWARD. THIS SURFACE RIDGE
MAY VERY WELL KEEP THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED TO NEW MEXICO
IN THE FAVORED ELY UPSLOPE REGIME WHILE LEAVING US BONE DRY AS
DEWPOINTS CRATER INTO THE 40S. EVEN WITH A LAYER OF POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS ALONG THE FRONTAL INVERSION...STRONGER CAA FRI NIGHT
FOLLOWING THE SECOND COLD FRONT LOOKS SUPPORTIVE FOR SOME CHILLY
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S ACROSS A LARGE AREA.

THIS COOL SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS OVER THE AREA ON SAT...SO
WITH RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT ELY FLOW HIGH TEMPS WERE
TRIMMED BACK A BIT. THEREAFTER A SLOW RETURN TO CLIMO HIGHS LOOKS
GOOD UNDER RISING HEIGHTS WITH LEE TROUGHING TO OUR NW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  80  55  72  52 /  20  10  20  20  30
TULIA         69  82  56  72  52 /  20  20  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     69  83  56  73  54 /  10  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     67  85  58  76  55 /  10  10  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       69  86  58  76  56 /  10  20  20  20  30
DENVER CITY   69  87  61  76  57 /  10  10  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    69  88  61  77  57 /  10  10  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     75  87  60  74  56 /  10  20  20  20  30
SPUR          72  88  62  76  58 /  10  20  20  20  30
ASPERMONT     75  95  66  81  60 /  10  20  20  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/55

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