Area Forecast Discussion
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581
FXUS64 KLUB 201725
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1125 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS.
EXCEPTION COULD BE AT KCDS AND KLBB WHERE SOME MORNING FOG AND/OR
STRATUS MAY BACK IN FROM THE WEST. IN THE NEAR TERM NORTH TO NE
SFC WINDS AOA 15 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTN AS SFC PRESSURE
INCREASES BEHIND A COLD FRONT. PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX THIS
EVENING ALLOWING WIND SPEEDS TO DECREASE. LIGHT NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE MOIST ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
THE NM STATE LINE...AND AGAIN...WITH POTENTIAL TO BUILD EWD WITH
TIME. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION REMAINS LOW AND WILL
KEEP RESTRICTIONS OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WE EXPECT CONTINUED DRY MILD WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL BRING NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS PEAKING OUT NEAR 15 OR 20 MPH AND LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGHS BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MONDAY.  WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY.  SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
THE PROSPECTS FOR A MID-WEEK WINTER STORM CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW APPEARS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES /NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK/ WE HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH...VALID FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

THE RETURN TO WINTRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR AS A RATHER MINOR WAVE
CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SHARPENS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHILE PHASING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A FAVORED AREA OF LIFT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY. IT STILL
APPEARS THE THRUST OF THIS INITIAL LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR
NORTH...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD GRAZE THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LIFT SHOULD THEN
CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO BLOSSOM OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN
BASIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THIS ACTIVITY ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO AT LEAST OUR SOUTHEASTERN MOST ZONES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...LIFT FROM THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD...WITH THE LARGE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SUITE WHILE ALSO EXPANDING IN AREA TO
ENCOMPASS MOST/ALL OF THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS
THE SHARP POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH EVERYONE SHOULD GET IN THE ACT. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
AREA-WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
CATEGORY ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY DECREASING POPS THURSDAY
EVENING.

THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE P-TYPE DURING THIS EVENT. INITIALLY IT
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH A LITTLE SNOW COULD MIXING IN OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR ALONG WITH THE
INCREASING LIFT SHOULD QUICKLY COOL THE VERTICAL COLUMN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE 00Z NWP RUNS SHOWED LUBBOCK CHANGING TO SNOW
BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH THE 06Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM NOW INDICATE
THE CHANGEOVER COULD BE DELAYED TO 9-12Z. OBVIOUSLY...THIS
CHANGEOVER TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL IN PREDICTING HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL FALL AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. ATTM...WE HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
MENTION PRIMARILY ON THE CAPROCK BEFORE 06Z THURSDAY...EXPANDING
TO MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN SNOW
WOULD BE THE PREDOMINATE MODE NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK. BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK SHOULD BE PRIMARILY
SNOW...THOUGH RAIN OR SNOW COULD BE FALLING FURTHER
EAST...DEPENDING ON THE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS...THOUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES /AROUND
ASPERMONT AND GUTHRIE/ MAY STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH TO REMAIN
MOSTLY/ALL RAIN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END BY LATE
IN THE DAY. OUR CURRENT FORECAST YIELDS SNOW TOTALS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
FA...WHICH IS WHY WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THIS AREA. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...INCLUDING
LUBBOCK...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW SEEMS MORE LIKELY...THOUGH IT WILL
ALL DEPEND ON WHEN THE RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION OCCURS. LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS SHOULD SEE LITTLE OR NO SNOW.
OUTSIDE OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH...WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

AFTER THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WINTER STORM DEPARTS...DRY CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY THE NWP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP BRING ADDITIONAL WEAK FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA
AND TEMPER THE WARMING TREND. OF COURSE...ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND
WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THE
LATEST BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS COOLED TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE TREND AND
THE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN ACCEPTED AS IS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  28  42  24  29 /   0   0  30  70  60
TULIA         53  29  42  27  31 /   0   0  30  70  50
PLAINVIEW     55  30  45  28  33 /   0   0  20  70  50
LEVELLAND     58  29  47  28  33 /   0   0  20  70  60
LUBBOCK       58  30  47  29  34 /   0   0  20  70  60
DENVER CITY   63  30  44  28  33 /   0   0  20  70  60
BROWNFIELD    61  30  46  28  34 /   0   0  20  70  60
CHILDRESS     58  34  47  31  43 /   0   0  10  70  40
SPUR          59  31  49  31  38 /   0   0  10  70  60
ASPERMONT     61  33  51  34  40 /   0   0  20  70  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033-034.

&&

$$

07

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