Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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540
FXUS64 KLUB 190530
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE WIND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. S-SW WINDS
WILL TURN TO A NORTHERLY FETCH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ABOVE
15 OR 20K FT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH
SOME FLOW CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO OUR WEST AS SUBTROPICAL JET REGIME
BEGINS TO TAKE FORM. A SUBTLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
REGIME WILL ONLY BE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES. SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. INSOFAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...THE NAM IS GROSSLY OVER-ESTIMATING SURFACE SNOW COVER ACROSS
THE REGION AND HAS A COOL BIAS ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO MAX T
FIELDS.

LONG TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT ITEM OF CONTENTION IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BEFORE
THIS...A SHORT WAVE WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL ONLY HAVE THE EFFECT OF INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW EARLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BUDGE THAT MUCH.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND BECOME POSITIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF LIFT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE LARGEST AMOUNT OF LIFT WILL BE CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTH TEXAS.
BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WEST TEXAS. BACKING SURFACE WINDS
WILL DRAW IN SOME GULF MOISTURE BUT THE TIME FRAME WILL BE SMALL
FOR ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. ANOTHER COLD AIR DUMP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN TO START OUT NEXT WEEK AFTER A WARMER WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  21  52  26  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         47  22  51  26  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     50  23  52  27  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  27  55  30  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       52  27  54  30  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   51  26  58  33  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    51  26  56  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  29  54  30  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          51  28  55  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     54  32  57  32  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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