Area Forecast Discussion
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869
FXUS64 KLUB 201735
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1235 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS NEXT 24 HRS. THERE
IS A REMOTE CHANCE OF TSRA IN THE VICNITY OF KLBB AND/OR KCDS
BETWEEN ABOUT 22 UTC AND 02 UTC BUT BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST. BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS MAY BE
INFLUENCED BY AN T-STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE
WE EXPECT TYPICAL DIURNAL VARIATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF KLBB TODAY WITH THUNDER CHANCES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AS WELL. MODEST SURFACE TROUGH WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY BREEZES LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE EASTERN EDGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEND ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT BUT STILL
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER. THIS APPEARS WELL HANDLED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND RELATIVELY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL
PULL OUT OF THE ROCKIES AS A SLIGHTLY MORE VIGOROUS WAVE SKIMS BY TO
THE NORTH...ALL AS UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF RELOCATING
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
LOOK ON PACE TO IMPROVE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR WESTERN BORDER AND
CELL MOVEMENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SLOW. ALSO...WE SHOULD SEE A
BIT INCREASED LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER SURFACE TROUGHING
AND SLIGHTLY MORE DYNAMIC THUNDERSTORMS. BUT OVERALL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER RISK STILL APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION FOR NOW. THE
BULK OF STORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO END BY MIDNIGHT WITH DEBRIS MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT WHICH WILL HOLD UP TEMPERATURES
CENTRAL AND EAST. A SEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...PERHAPS
UP A DEGREE OR TWO AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST. ONCE AGAIN...
FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK. AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...A LEE TROF WILL
BE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP SET US UP FOR A SHOT AT
PRECIP THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVELS AROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN NM. I HAVE EXPANDED POPS
FARTHER EAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCES EXTENDING TO THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK WESTWARD AND KEPT CHANCES OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. RAIN
CHANCES PERSIST EVERY AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE FA AS THE SURFACE TROF STAYS PUT UNTIL THE MAIN
CHUNK OF ENERGY WITH THE TROF TO OUR WEST MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION IN THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE. THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROF TO OUR
WEST WILL CONTINUE THROWING ENERGY OUR WAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
KEEPING SOME HOPE FOR CONVECTION/PRECIP. FOR NOW...HOWEVER...POPS
HAVE BEEN KEPT JUST BELOW MENTION UNTIL THE WRINKLES CAN BE IRONED
OUT OF THE RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES. BY MID WEEK A RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK TO OUR WEST PUTTING US IN COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPS
FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL...POSSIBLY JUST
ABOVE...FOR THE FA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AND MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE EAST ZONES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S
OUT WEST TO THE LOW 70S OUT EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  64  91  61 /  20  30  30  30  30
TULIA         64  91  66  92  64 /  10  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     65  91  65  92  64 /  10  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     64  91  64  90  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       68  94  68  94  68 /  10  20  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   66  93  65  92  65 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    66  93  65  93  65 /  20  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     71  97  72  98  71 /   0  10  10  10  10
SPUR          68  94  66  95  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     71  97  71  98  69 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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