Area Forecast Discussion
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875
FXUS64 KLUB 140426 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1026 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT AND MODELS ARE REFLECTING THIS.
OPTED TO PULL POPS BACK UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING
TO PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS ON A STRONG 30-40 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET...AND BUMPED MIN TEMPERATURES UP THANKS TO THE BREEZY
SURFACE WINDS. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND MADE ADJUSTMENT TO WIND SPEEDS
TOMORROW ACROSS THE AREA AND INCREASED THEM BY ABOUT 5-7 KNOTS
WHICH PUTS THE FORECAST IN A SOLID 25-30 MPH /AND THIS MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH/.

ANOTHER RESULT OF THE INCREASED WIND SPEED WAS TO ADD MENTION OF
BLOWING DUST. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL OVERNIGHT MAY HELP TO HOLD
DOWN SOME BLOWING DUST BUT MOST OF THE COTTON FIELDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS HAVE BEEN HARVESTED REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE
FRICTION TO KEEP FINE PARTICULATE MATTER FROM BEING LOFTED. DO NOT
EXPECT BROWNOUT CONDITIONS...BUT ENOUGH DUST WILL BE IN THE AIR TO
BE NOTICEABLE. LASTLY...TAPERED POPS OF FAIRLY FAST THROUGH THE
MORNING SUNDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES...HOWEVER THIS WILL
CHANGE AFTER SUNSET. CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING IN THIS ROUND OF
TAFS IS VERY LOW AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
AND COMPUTER MODELS GENERATE VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR THE TAF
SITES. THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
FALL INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE AT KLBB/KPVW WITH LIFR/VLIFR AT KCDS.
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES BOUNCING
AROUND BETWEEN LIFR/VFR IF STORMS DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIMING IN THE TAFS FOR THE ONSET OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AS
WELL AS WHEN THE STORMS MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITES AND EXPECT TO SEE
MULTIPLE AMENDMENTS AS WE GET NEW DATA IN AND AS THE STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES.

ONLY HIGH CONFIDENCE ITEM IN THE TAFS IS THAT ONCE THE STORM
SYSTEM PASSES THE REGION...EXPECT STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WIND 20-30 KTS TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH PERIODS OF
BLOWING DUST AT KLBB AND KPVW. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE LATE IN
THE DAY SUNDAY AROUND SUNSET.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LIKE YESTERDAY AROUND THIS TIME...THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATED FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A LINGERING THIN STRATUS DECK
NOTED ACROSS THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE PER 21Z VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY.
AS SUCH...TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. SLIGHTLY DEEPENED SFC LEE TROUGHING
HAS LED TO MODESTLY BREEZY S-SW WINDS LATE THIS AFTN...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 MPH BEING COMMON.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE UA TROUGH
TRANSLATING EAST TOWARDS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION LATE THIS AFTN. IT
IS THIS SAME STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
AND CONSEQUENTLY MUDSLIDES TO PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA. THE UA
DISTURBANCE IS ANTICIPATED TO CLOSE OFF WHILST MOVING ENE ACROSS NRN
NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...TO ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE/SRN OK PANHANDLE
TOMORROW. THIS TRACK IS A TAD FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS. TONIGHT...SHALLOW YET PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH THE LLJ KICKING UP INTO THE 20-40 KT RANGE WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUD FORMATION AND PERHAPS FOG. THOUGH...NOT
SURE HOW DENSE THE FOG WILL BE ABLE TO GET...GIVEN THE SRLY SFC WIND
SPEEDS WILL STAY UP A BIT COURTESY OF A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
PROMOTED BY SFC LEE TROUGHING. CONCURRENTLY...UL SUPPORT WILL
COMMENCE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FA AOA MIDNIGHT...LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO DURING THE SAID
TIME-FRAME...BUT THE IMPINGEMENT OF A BREEZY PACIFIC FRONT FILTERING
IN FROM WEST TO EAST COULD SERVE AS A CONVECTION FOCUS. THUS...THE
PRECIP ACTIVITY COULD BLOSSOM INTO A LINE OF STORMS /PERHAPS A
RAGGED LINE/ THAT WILL MOVE ENE FROM THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT TO
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING. ANY LINGERING FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CLEARED OUT BY THE PACIFIC FRONT.
FURTHERMORE...WITH STEEPENED LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH UL
SUPPORT...MUCAPE OF AOA 500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AOA 40
KTS...COULD SUPPORT STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH WIND
GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

TOMORROW AFTN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO RATHER BREEZY WRLY WIND SPEEDS
THAT COULD FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS /31 MPH OR GREATER/...AS
HINTED AT BY MOS GUIDANCE. AS SUCH...SOME LIGHT DUST COULD BECOME
LOFTED IN THE AIR AND CREATE THAT BROWN HUE WE ARE ALL TOO FAMILIAR
WITH. BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A
BIT...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL STILL BE BREEZY /15-20 MPH OR SO/.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD TEMPS ARE IN STORE /UPPER 30S NW TO LOWER 50S
SE/ FOLLOWED BY A COOLER SUNDAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED THE
LAST FEW DAYS /50S AND 60S/. /29

LONG TERM...
LOW AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE WILL FOLLOW SUNDAYS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH AXIS EXPECTED TO PASS LATE TUESDAY. THE
FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE WEEK STILL APPEAR RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY
WITH NO THREAT OF FOG AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE WEAK UPPER TROUGH DUE
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AT LEAST ONE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THAT MAY BE CAPABLE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY EASTERN ZONES...WHILE A LATE WEEK SYSTEM
STILL CONTINUES TO GENERATE EXTREME RUN TO RUN AND SOLUTION TO
SOLUTION CHANGES SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY INDIVIDUAL OUTCOME REMAINS
SMALL. OUR BLENDED LONG RANGE SOLUTION REMAINS REASONABLY CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GENERALLY PREFERRED AT THIS TIME. WE CHOSE
TO MINOR OUT SHOWER CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM
UNTIL WE CAN RELY BETTER ON LIFT AND MOISTURE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT
LATE THURSDAY STILL SEEMS A REASONABLE BET AND TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY FRIDAY MAY BE THREATENINGLY CLOSE TO CAPABLE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TYPES. BUT AS NOTED ABOVE WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY
SIGNALS THAT GIVE CONFIDENCE IN A PARTICULAR OUTCOME LET ALONE ONE
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WILL RAISE CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL GIVEN THE RATHER BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE /SPEEDS FLIRTING WITH WIND
ADVISORY SPEEDS OF 31 MPH/. HOWEVER...THERE LIES SOME UNCERTAINTY
WRT HOW FUELS WILL RESPOND ESPECIALLY SINCE FUELS ENCOMPASS ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE...IN ADDITION TO RAINFALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS
WHICH IF FAVORABLE...WILL ONLY AID IN MITIGATING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  55  27  51  24 /  60  20   0   0   0
TULIA         44  56  29  53  24 /  60  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  57  30  54  25 /  60  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     45  58  31  54  27 /  60  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       49  60  33  55  27 /  50  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   46  60  33  56  30 /  50  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    48  60  33  55  29 /  50  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  63  36  57  29 /  30  60   0   0   0
SPUR          51  63  36  58  29 /  30  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     54  66  38  59  32 /  20  40   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93

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