Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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214
FXUS64 KLUB 140254 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
954 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

.UPDATE...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW MOVING
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS...WHILE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY
STATIONARY BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND SHRINKING.
THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE WEAKENING TREND. WE
MAY SEE ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ROTATE SWWD FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
PERSIST ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE UNLIKELY TO
CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...BUT IN ANY AREAS OF CLEARING PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015/

AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CEILINGS TONIGHT. WE HAVE INDICATED MVFR CEILINGS IN THE TAF...BUT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT FOG IS
LIKELY AS WELL...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SURFACE VISIBILITIES
UNDER 3 OR 4 MILES. PERIODS OF -SHRA ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 03 UTC...WITH CHANCES DECREASING EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...PERHAPS DELAYED
A FEW HOURS AT KCDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015/

SHORT TERM...
RAIN...AND LOTS OF IT IN SOME CASES...CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A CLOSED LOW DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS THE MIDLAND/ODESSA AREA.  AMPLE MOISTURE IS WRAPPING AROUND
THE LOW WHICH IS BEING CONVERTED TO RAINFALL RATES AVERAGING AROUND
ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH PER HOUR IN THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY
CORES.  THIS IS A BIT LOWER THAN WE SAW THIS MORNING WHERE RAINFALL
RATES WERE APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES AT TIMES BUT SHOULD STILL PROVIDE
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO MANY AREAS THAT NEED THE PRECIPITATION.

A CURSORY GLANCE AT THE 20Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS THE COLD
FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND WAS ROUGHLY LOCATED
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.  MODELS CONTINUE CARRY THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE
PUSHING THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.  GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A TROWAL
 REMAINS WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW
WHILE SLOWLY COOLING WITH TIME.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
TRANSITIONING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TIME.  WILL KEEP
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE WEATHER GRIDS UNTIL THE CORE OF
THE LOW IS EAST OF THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...EVEN THOUGH WE
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL THANKS TO THE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE COOL DAY AS CLOUD COVER IS SLOW TO CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST AND PRECIPITATION LEAVES BEHIND AT LEAST SOME SURFACE
MOISTURE TO EVAPORATE.  AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHEAST...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END IN THE SAME GENERAL DIRECTION
OR EXIT THE ROLLING PLAINS BY AROUND 18Z.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
RECENT ACTIVE PATTERN WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE LATE TUE-EARLY
WEDNESDAY UNDER A FLEETING S/W RIDGE BEFORE ANOTHER DEEP CYCLONE
SETS ITS SIGHTS ON THE REGION. MODEL AMBIGUITY REGARDING THIS LOW/S
BEHAVIOR IS NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR...SO CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF DEEP CONVECTION IS IMPROVING. THE GFS IS STILL A BIT OF A
LAGGARD IN THAT IT PHASES MORE OF THIS PINCHED LOW WITH ITS PARENT
TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER RESULTING IN AN ELONGATED/DAMPENED
LOW VERSUS THE MORE CONCENTRIC/DEEPER CYCLONE ON REMAINING
MODELS. EITHER PROJECTION BODES WELL FOR BOOSTING POPS BEGINNING
WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THESE CHANCES STEADILY LOWER
ON FRI PROVIDED THE UPPER LOW BEGINS PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY SLOTTING.

AS SOON AS WED AFTN...OUR WESTERN COUNTIES MAY ALREADY BE
CONTENDING WITH TSTORMS NEAR A DIFFUSE SFC TROUGH WITH WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS ALOFT...BUT HAVE KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY FOR NOW AS BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND BACKGROUND ASCENT SHOULD UNFOLD WED EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL TUG RICHER
GULF MOISTURE W-NW AND LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A RESPECTABLE
DRYLINE BY MID-AFTERNOON. GIVEN AN INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL 700MB
COMPONENT TO WINDS DURING THE DAY...WE WOULD EXPECT A MORE
WESTERLY DRYLINE LOCATION IN THIS SETUP...PERHAPS VERY CLOSE TO
THE NM BORDER. VARIOUS VORT LOBES ROTATING N-NE AROUND THE DEEP
CYCLONE IN THE FOUR CORNERS SHOULD PROVE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
ROUNDS OF AFTN/EVNG CONVECTION. EVEN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S...TEMPS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SIZABLE
CAPES AND WHEN COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR THIS
PATTERN CERTAINLY SUGGESTS ANOTHER SEVERE CONVECTIVE EVENT MAY BE
IN THE OFFING.

AS DISCUSSED EARLIER...THE TROUGH PHASING ISSUE OF THE GFS ENDS UP
DELIVERING A CANADIAN FRONT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AS SOON AS THU
AFTN...BUT WE ARE DISMISSING THIS ATTM IN FAVOR OF THE ECM WHICH
DELAYS NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW UNTIL LATE FRI/SAT. AS A RESULT...
ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR REASONABLE ON FRI GIVEN THE UPPER
LOW STILL HOLDING OVER NEW MEXICO. THE FASTER EASTWARD PUSH OF THIS
LOW PER THE GFS IS NOT FAVORED BY US OR WPC GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR
THESE CUTOFF LOWS TO LOITER LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...ALTHOUGH IF
THE EASTWARD CRAWL OF THE DGEX IS CORRECT WE COULD SEE RAIN CHANCES
EXTEND AS LATE AS SUNDAY. FOR NOW WE HAVE PUT OUR STOCK IN THE ECM
WHICH EVENTUALLY PHASES THE LOW WITH A NEW TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
NRN PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND AND DRIES US OUT BY SAT NIGHT/SUN. THIS
LATTER TROUGH HAS THE LOOKS OF SENDING MUCH COOLER AIR OUR WAY BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH MODELS FAVOR ONLY A GLANCING BLOW OF COOL
AIR AS THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY JOGS EAST TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  62  43  75 /  30  20   0  10
TULIA         43  59  42  75 /  40  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     43  59  43  75 /  50  20   0  10
LEVELLAND     43  61  45  77 /  50  20   0  10
LUBBOCK       44  60  45  78 /  50  20   0  10
DENVER CITY   44  62  45  78 /  70  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    45  62  46  79 /  70  20   0  10
CHILDRESS     49  58  45  79 /  50  40  10  10
SPUR          47  59  45  79 /  60  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     49  60  48  81 /  70  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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