Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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580
FXUS64 KLUB 141719
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1219 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
A BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NOT HANDLED BY THE MODELS WILL MOVE INTO
THE KLBB TERMINAL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
REPORT LIFR CIGS ALONG WITH MVFR VISBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...AFTER THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PASS...MVFR
CIGS WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LOCALIZED
REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VISBYS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION ANY REDUCTIONS IN THE TAF FOR TONIGHT. CHANCES ARE HIGH
THAT KCDS WILL REMAIN IN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BUT THERE IS
A CHANCE AT REDUCED CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION...
-SHRA HAS PASSED ACROSS KLBB EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL
-SHRA NOTED WELL SOUTH OF THE SAID TAF SITE. THE -SHRA ACTIVITY TO
THE SOUTH COULD AFFECT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A MENTION ATTM. CONFIDENCE
INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVERHEAD AND PROMOTES ADDITIONAL -SHRA/-TSRA CHANCES. HAVE
INSERTED A PROB30 FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AT BOTH TAF SITES...KEYING
IN ON KLBB RECEIVING IT LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND MORE SO THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AT KCDS. OTHERWISE...IFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE
DEVELOPED AT KLBB EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL AS VFR FOG. COULD SEE
THIS PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER...SCT MVFR DECKS
WILL BE COMMON BEFORE RISING TO LOW VFR DECKS BY THE EVENING.
COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPING AT KCDS LATER
THIS MORNING...AND RISING TO LOW VFR BY EARLY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE STRETCHED FROM THE SERN CONUS TO ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...THUS AIDING IN CONTINUING THE ERN
PACIFIC FETCH OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
HURRICANE ODILE AS WELL. AS SUCH...MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED
IN PLACE...WHILST S-SE SFC WINDS PROMOTES ENDURING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.20-1.50 INCHES/. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT A
MODERATELY STRONG EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE SWRN PERIPHERY
OF THE UA RIDGE TO ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS
GENERALLY CARVING A PATH FROM THE SWRN ZONES TO ACROSS THE NERN
ZONES. WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...IT WILL
LIKELY NOT TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE RAINFALL...WITH THUNDER BEING A
POTENTIAL DUE TO DECENT MID-UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE
DISTURBANCE. IN FACT...RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN PER 0730Z RADAR ANALYSIS...WHICH IS A PROMISING
SIGN FOR PRECIP CHANCES LATER TODAY. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS
TO CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE FAR WRN AND SWRN ZONES THIS AFTN...AND
ALSO ACROSS THE NERN ZONES TONIGHT...WHICH FOLLOWS THE PATH OF THE
ANTICIPATED DISTURBANCE.

ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...THOUGH COULD ONCE
AGAIN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREAKS IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY
LATE AFTN. THESE BREAKS IN CLOUDS COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW
SFC WINDS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER DAY /70S ON THE CAPROCK TO 80S OFF
THE CAPROCK/. CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND S-SW SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL MAKE FOR A WARMER NIGHT /UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/.

LONG TERM...
RAIN EVENT STILL ON TRACK MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. STILL
UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE...BUT CERTAINLY LOOKING
LIKE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME. 00Z NAM BEGINNING TO FAVOR SHIFTING
PRECIP MORE QUICKLY SWD TUESDAY AS UPPER FLOW OVER THE CONUS
AMPLIFIES WITH A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS PUSHING DRIER AIR SWD WHILE THE STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW ATTEMPTS TO CUT OFF SOME OF THE ERN
PACIFIC DEEP MOISTURE. STILL...A PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH SOME
UPPER JET INTERACTION AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FCST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT POINTS TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE AND A FURTHER
NUDGING OF POPS UPWARDS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA.

OTHER ISSUE THIS MORNING IS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS
ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW PROGRESSIVE THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL BE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS THAT TAKES A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTL
PLAINS VERY LATE IN THE WEEK. SRN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO LINGER ACROSS THE DESERT SW...POSSIBLY ABSORBING REMNANTS OF
ODILE. THAT POTENTIALLY COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE FCST
AREA FOR THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH
MODEL INCONSISTENCY WILL CONTINUE TO WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL
CONTINUITY AND PASS ON INSERTING POPS ATTM.

TEMPS WILL ALSO BE A BIT UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE REGARDING EXTENT AND ROLE OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH HEIGHT AND THICKNESS PATTERN AND
MAGNITUDE LATE WEEK. HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF RAW
MODEL OUTPUT AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OF MOS OUTPUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        57  80  58  80  60 /  20  20  20  20  20
TULIA         59  81  60  80  62 /  20  20  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     60  81  61  80  62 /  20  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     59  81  61  80  62 /  20  30  40  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  81  63  80  66 /  20  30  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   60  81  61  79  63 /  20  30  40  30  20
BROWNFIELD    61  81  62  80  62 /  20  30  40  40  20
CHILDRESS     64  84  65  84  67 /  30  20  30  30  20
SPUR          63  83  64  82  65 /  20  30  40  30  20
ASPERMONT     66  84  67  84  67 /  20  30  40  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01

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