Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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596
FXUS64 KLUB 142315
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
615 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

.AVIATION...
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS RIDGING
BUILDS JUST TO OUR WEST. BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT
BY WEST TEXAS STANDARDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP A FEW DEGREES
TONIGHT OVER MINS WE SAW LAST NIGHT. THAT SAID...HAVE UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES UP IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN THE NORMAL
TROUBLE SPOTS. WINDS APPEAR TO AVERAGE AROUND 6 KTS UP THAT WAY
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP MINS FROM CRATERING. THAT SAID...IF
SPEEDS DROP BELOW 3 KTS...COULD SEE MINS APPROACH THE FREEZING
MARK. OTHERWISE...CLEAR AND CLASSIC WEST TEXAS FALL.

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION
MAY BE INTRODUCED EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN US WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP CONSIDERABLY ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONTS ARRIVAL. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY AT 23N
129W WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL JUST BE BEGINNING TO RECOVER ON
SATURDAY SO PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW.

GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THE TIME PERIOD BEGINNING EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A RIDGE WILL
BUILD UP OVER THE ROCKIES WITH WHAT IS REMAINING OF THE TROUGH
UNDERCUTTING THIS RIDGE. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN
SUSPICIOUSLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH BUT HAS NOW COME MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF/CMC/NAEFS SOLUTIONS. THIS MAY SLOW DOWN THE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN TO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FOR MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  80  47  82  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         42  80  46  86  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     43  79  47  88  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     45  80  47  90  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       44  80  49  90  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   46  80  48  91  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  80  48  91  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  83  49  91  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          47  82  49  92  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     49  83  52  92  51 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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