Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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046
FXUS64 KLUB 102350
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
550 PM CST WED DEC 10 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WILL BE REPLACED WITH MVFR CIGS/VISBYS IN THE HOURS
AHEAD AT ALL TERMINALS. STRATUS OF 1-2K FT AGL WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT DENSE FOG REMAINS AN OUTLIER
ACCORDING TO RECENT MODELS SO WE/LL KEEP LOWEST VISBYS AT A
COUPLE MILES. MVFR CIG/VIS SHOULD SCATTER OUT THU AFTN AS WINDS
VEER MORE SWLY AND TREND A BIT DRIER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST WED DEC 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS WERE SLOW TO BURN OFF ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS
THERE WAS NOTHING TO AID IN MIXING OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER EXCEPT FOR
DAYTIME HEATING.  LOW CLOUDS FINALLY HAVE BROKEN ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS WITH CLOUD COVER HANGING ON ACROSS MOST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
AND JUST WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.  SURFACE ANALYSIS THROUGH
THE MORNING SHOW THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED CENTERED NEAR
CLOVIS WHICH MAY HAVE HELPED PULL SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHILE ALSO HELPING TO MIX THE SURFACE LAYER
OUT.  ALSO HELPING IS A LACK OF HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WERE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BUT HAS MANAGED TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER BUT WILL CONTINUE A LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE WIND SPEEDS DROP OFF ONCE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.  THIS WILL SET UP GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE...WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN.  PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS BUT COVERAGE
RIGHT NOW WILL PROBABLY BE TOO LOCALIZED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...AT LEAST BASED ON HOW THINGS LOOK NOW.  MIN TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD ONCE AGAIN THANKS TO ALL THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THAT IS
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES WE SAW THIS MORNING.

HIGHS TOMORROW ARE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN DEPENDING ON HOW FAST LOW
CLOUDS/FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND WHETHER WE CAN GET ANY DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION.  A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CONSENSUS SEEMED THE
WAY TO GO BUT THIS STILL KEEPS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS
THE AREA.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING ABOUT THE
RETURN OF FOGGY CONDITIONS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING...DESPITE A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT. IF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE TAUGHT US ANYTHING...IT IS
THAT A DECENT LLJ OF 15-25 KTS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS /DESPITE THE
DIRECTION OF THE WIND/ AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
/DEWPOINTS ABOVE NORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ WILL AID IN THE
FORMATION OF FOG. TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S /OR SOME 12-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORM/ AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS WILL CHARACTERIZE
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COURTESY OF A PASSING UA RIDGE AND
DEEPENING SFC LEE TROUGHING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL COMMENCE TO FALL AS
AN APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION
SATURDAY EVENING...TO ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY EVENING.
INCREASING UL SUPPORT...MOISTENING SOUNDING PROFILES AND THUS PWATS
INCREASING TO 0.5-1.10 INCHES MAY RESULT IN CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ACROSS THE CWA STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AS IS SHOWN VIA MODEL SOLUTIONS.
PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE IMPINGES ON THE CWA. THE
DISTURBANCE/S ASSOCIATED BREEZY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE...THUS RAISING CONCERNS FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUN
ITERATIONS...THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE HAS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY SHIFTED NWRD TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED. KEEP IN MIND
THAT THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND THUS...IF THE ACTUAL TRACK
DEVIATES FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED...SOME THINGS COULD CHANGE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC WINDS AND A NEARBY SFC
RIDGE WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP BACK TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORM
/50S/.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93

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