Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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286
FXUS64 KLUB 131700
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1200 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER UPPER LEVEL HIGH. CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL PRETTY MUCH BE SITTING OVERHEAD TODAY BRING
WITH IT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA.  MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL INTO NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD
MAKE THEIR APPEARANCE THOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SCANT
AND A H6 CAP SHOULD KEEP ANY VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT FAIRLY SHALLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP ABOUT 5 DEGREES OVER WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY.
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL WITH NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPS.

LONG TERM...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOTTER AND DRIER WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE...SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY. MONSOONAL FLOW
RETURNS...WITH MOISTURE FILLING IN BEHIND CLOSED LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN A WEAK COLD FRONT SPREADING ACROSS WEST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AN OTHERWISE
WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GIVEN HOT TEMPS AND
INCREASED DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ANY STORMS WOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH
BASED.

THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL BRING NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL KEEP
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT IN UPPER
LEVELS AND NORTHWEST FLOW...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WEST TEXAS...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY FOR LOCATION AND COVERAGE HAVE KEPT
POPS THE SAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  92  64  95  64 /   0  10  10  10  20
TULIA         64  94  65  96  66 /   0   0  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     64  93  65  95  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     65  93  65  95  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       67  94  67  96  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   65  93  65  97  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    65  94  64  98  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     69 100  70 100  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          66  97  66 100  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     69  99  69 100  72 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

06/99/99

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