Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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907
FXUS64 KLUB 181729
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1229 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.AVIATION...
BKN-OVC MVFR CLOUD DECKS PERSISTED AT BOTH TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...AS LOW CLOUD DECKS WERE SLOW TO LIFT. COMPUTER MODELS
HINT AT LOW CLOUDS SCOURING OUT/LIFTING TO VFR BY MID-DAY.
OTHERWISE...E-SE WINDS WILL ENSUE WITH HINTS OF THE RETURN OF MVFR
CLOUD DECKS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE INSERTED A FEW MENTION
ATTM BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INSERT A FOG MENTION AS COMPUTER MODEL DO NOT SHOW
100 PERCENT LOW LEVEL SATURATION.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A FAVORABLE SET UP WILL BE IN PLACE FOR CONVECTION ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO REACH WEST TEXAS. EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO
DECREASE TODAY BUT WILL STILL BE AROUND SEASONAL VALUES. THIS MAY BE
A LITTLE MISLEADING THOUGH WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR INTRUSION AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT WITH
HIGH INSTABILITY TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS
INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE INTO WEST TEXAS COINCIDENT WITH THE
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS. FURTHERMORE...HEIGHT RISES TODAY WILL ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING IS SHOWING INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT IT WILL HANG ONTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ABNORMALLY COOL DAY FOR THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS MAY MAKE
A RUN AT THE AREA FOR SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST BUT LOOKS
TO ENCOMPASS A SMALLER PORTION OF THE REGION.

LONG TERM...
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN SOLUTIONS ON THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST IN THE DAYS AHEAD...PEAKING WEDNESDAY-
ISH WITH NEARLY 6000 METERS OF HEIGHT AT THE 500 MB LEVEL. THIS
WILL LEAD TO OBVIOUS WARMING AND DRY PERIOD LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...THOUGH FOR LATE SATURDAY AND EVEN PERHAPS LATE
SUNDAY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...THERE MAY YET BE JUST ENOUGH FLOW
WITH ATMOSPHERE STILL ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED FOR AT LEAST LOW THUNDER
CHANCES. SATURDAY WILL SEE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL WITH
MODEST SURFACE TROUGH PERHAPS LEADING TO THUNDERSTORM GENERATION
NOT TOO FAR WEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...BOOSTING OPPORTUNITY
JUST SLIGHTLY. HEAT INDICES WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...THOUGH LATEST CALCULATIONS REMAIN SHORT OF
ACTION LEVELS. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN IN GENERAL SLIGHTLY UNDER MOST
GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. EASTERLY
COMPONENTS ALSO EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
THE RIDGE CENTER TO OUR NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE HEAT FOR
MOST OF OUR AREA. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  66  95  69 /  10  20  20  10  10
TULIA         63  89  68  95  70 /  10  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  89  70  95  71 /  10  10  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     65  93  70  97  72 /  10  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  92  73  97  74 /  10  10  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   66  94  69  97  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  93  70  97  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     65  91  73  98  75 /   0  10  20  10  10
SPUR          66  92  72  97  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     67  93  75  97  76 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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