Area Forecast Discussion
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594
FXUS64 KLUB 160849
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
ODILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY WITH
ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EWD FROM IT. MODELS
PROG A MODEST UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX EJECTING ACROSS SRN NEW MEXICO.
IT IS HARD TO VERIFY THAT AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE MOISTURE
DOWNSTREAM FROM ODILE. THAT DISTURBANCE WILL BE WORKING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODEST JET STREAK...
THE JET STREAK MOVING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PULL UP
STATIONARY ACROSS THE FCST THIS MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST LIFT OVER THE SWRN TO SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES
FAVORING HIGHEST POPS THERE WHILE THE NERN ZONES GETTING THE SHORT
END OF THE STICK...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH INGREDIENTS THERE TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FCST. PROGGED MLCAPE VALUES THIS AFTN MAINLY IN A
RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG BUT SPREAD OUT FAIRLY EVENLY THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING SUGGESTS SHOWERS
FAVORED BUT THUNDER NOT RULED OUT. FINALLY...WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THAT WILL BE LEAST
LIKELY TO WORK OUT ACROSS THE NERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO BE THINNEST AND RAIN CHANCES THE LEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE DOMINATING ACROSS THE GULF REGION IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
WEST TO NEAR FAR SWRN TX/NERN OLD MEXICO BY MID-WEEK...THUS CAUSING
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE DESERT SW. OUR PERSISTENT
FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL GO UNDISTURBED...AS PACIFIC
MOISTURE TRANSLATED AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UA RIDGE TO ACROSS THE REGION...AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CAUSE PWATS TO GO ON THE RISE /1.20-1.80
INCHES BY MID-WEEK/. ODILE IS PROGGED TO GET SWEPT BY WESTERLIES
ALOFT...AND EVOLVE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLES REGION BY LATE WEEK. THUS...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE...COUPLED WITH A PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
TO RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK /HIGHEST POPS NOTED THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION/. WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP EXITS THE REGION IS A BIT
QUESTIONABLE AS LONG TERM SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH THE DISTURBANCE/S
SPEED. THE GFS QUICKLY PUSHES THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
EAST OF THE FA BY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CLEAR THE SRN ZONES BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS THIS FRONT BEING A FOCUS FOR PRECIP...THOUGH THE SRN
AND ERN ZONES ARE HIGHLY FAVORED. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER-HAND IS A
TAD SLOWER...AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...LEADING TO LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE CWA. THE
ECMWF IN GENERAL TENDS TO BE A BIT BETTER IN PREDICTING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM THAN THE GFS.
THUS...WILL ELECT TO MAINTAIN POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN.

HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. AS SUCH...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  61  81  60  79 /  30  20  20  20  30
TULIA         78  62  83  62  80 /  30  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     78  63  81  62  79 /  30  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     76  65  78  63  78 /  40  20  30  30  40
LUBBOCK       78  66  79  65  79 /  40  20  30  20  40
DENVER CITY   73  65  76  63  76 /  40  30  50  40  40
BROWNFIELD    75  66  78  65  78 /  40  20  40  30  40
CHILDRESS     83  67  86  66  86 /  20  20  20  20  20
SPUR          81  67  83  67  82 /  40  20  30  20  30
ASPERMONT     83  70  84  69  84 /  40  20  30  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29

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