Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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805
FXUS64 KLUB 011815
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1215 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
JUST ENOUGH MIXING NEAR AND EAST OF KCDS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS SIGN OF
IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY END INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT AND WITH NORTHWARD STREAMING OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.
VERY SLIM SHOT AT SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...BUT
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION FOR
NOW. NONETHELESS...FAIRLY CERTAIN KLBB AND KPVW WILL SEE LOWERING
VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WHILE MORE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO OCCURRENCE/TIMING AT KCDS WITH LESS OF A SNOWPACK.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SHALLOW DOME OF COLD AIR HAS PROVEN QUITE RESILIENT OVER OUR CWA
EVEN WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXITING TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
S-SE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN RECYCLING COLD TRAJECTORIES FOR THE
PAST DAY...HOWEVER TEMPS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET ALOFT CONTINUE
TO MODERATE NICELY AS CONFIRMED BY EARLIER AMDAR DATA. AFTER
MORNING FOG EVENTUALLY LIFTS...STUBBORN STRATUS IS PROGGED TO THIN
TO AROUND 1500 FEET THICK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A BIT MORE MUTED
INSOLATION AND MIXING TO OCCUR. THIS WILL SERVE TO FINALLY PUSH
THE CWA INTO ABOVE FREEZING TERRITORY FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
LAST THURSDAY MORNING. ON A RELATED NOTE...THE MAV REMAINS
EGREGIOUSLY WARM WITH HIGH TEMPS AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DISMISSED
IN FAVOR OF THE COLDER MET AND RAW MODELS. BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...MILD SOUTHERLIES ON THE CAPROCK WILL BE BEGIN BACKING
IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS EVENING.

BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE UNFOLDS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS
MORE SW AND DIRECTS A MODEST AREA OF UPPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUR
WAY. UNFORTUNATELY...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH HOPE FOR
SATURATING A WARM AND VERY DRY EML CENTERED AROUND 700MB. IF THIS
PROVES ACCURATE...FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
MAY BE ALL WE SEE AS STRATUS DEEPENS TO 3000 FEET THICK OR SO. WE
DID RETAIN SOME SCANT PRECIP MENTION IN LINE WITH THE LATEST DRIER
SUPERBLEND...THOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY SEE FIT TO DO AWAY WITH
THESE POPS ALTOGETHER IF THIS DRYING THEME CONTINUES. PROFILES
SUGGEST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SLEET
POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS THAT ADEQUATELY MOISTEN THE EML.

LONG TERM...
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY BRING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BUT ALSO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SHEARING OFF
A DEEP TROF THAT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC COAST. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WHICH WARRANTS KEEPING AT
LEAST SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY
BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF MELTING OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BUT OPTED TO CUT
THEM BACK BY ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE FORECAST AREA BUT AREAS THAT RECEIVED
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL STILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT WHAT REMAINS
ON THE GROUND.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT A PRETTY GOOD DENT IN THE SNOW SHOULD TAKE PLACE
ON TUESDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BUT BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. MODELS VEER THE SURFACE WIND TO
THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AS WELL AS
PUSHING ANY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EAST INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN THAT MORNING LOWS TUESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
60S. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
THERE WILL BE TO LIMIT INSOLATION BUT THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN SINCE THE START OF THIS COLD SNAP.

UNFORTUNATELY ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DROPPING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WEST
COAST LOW/TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A TOP-DOWN PRECIPITATION EVENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL HAVE BEEN SCOURED OUT ON TUESDAY SO POP FORECAST REMAINS
TRICKY AS TO HOW MUCH COVERAGE WE WILL SEE WITH THE MAIN TROF
PASSAGE. LEFT POPS INTACT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALL BELOW FREEZING...SHOULD SEE SNOW WITH
ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS. THERE STILL ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THE TROF WITH THE ECMWF SHEARING OUT THE CLOSED LOW AND
KEEPING A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROF AXIS ACROSS NEW MEXICO...THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE TRYING TO DEVELOP A NEW CLOSED LOW
BY THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE GULF OF BAJA.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS IT STARTS TO MODIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM DAY BY DAY BUT WE
SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FORECAST
WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY FOR NOW AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLOUD COVER. KEPT FORECAST DRY THANKS TO A VERY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  42  37  59 /  20  20  10  10
TULIA         26  40  38  60 /  20  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     26  40  38  60 /  20  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     29  42  37  62 /  20  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       28  40  38  62 /  20  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   29  44  38  64 /  20  20  20  10
BROWNFIELD    29  42  36  64 /  20  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     27  39  38  66 /  20  20  20  10
SPUR          28  39  37  66 /  20  30  20  10
ASPERMONT     29  39  39  69 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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