Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Next Version | Current Version | All | Graphics & Text | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

228
FXUS64 KLUB 162321
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECLINE A BIT SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET...BUT STAY UP IN THE 14-16 KT RANGE TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST COURTESY OF A
COLD FRONT. LOW VFR-MVFR CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR CLOUD DECKS MORE SO AT
KCDS. COULD SEE -SHRA ALSO AT KCDS TOMORROW MORNING...AND HAVE
INSERTED A PROB30 FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT NEAR A HEREFORD TO BORGER LINE AT 130 PM TO MOVE SWD INTO
THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A SHARP SW TO NE ORIENTATION AS LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SERN NM SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SSE AND THE INVERTED
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS WITH IT. LIKELY WILL
NOT SEE THE SERN ZONES CLEARED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING BTWN 12Z AND
18Z. TEMPS NOT TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH MET AND MAV MOS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST AND RAW MODELS.

OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO CROSS THE PANHANDLE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY PRODUCING A PERIOD OF DEEP LIFT
ACROSS MAINLY THE NERN QUARTER OF THE FCST AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...
THE DEEP LIFT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT WELL PHASED
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PULLED NWWD TOWARD THE FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH
INITIALLY AND BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. STILL...
SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITH SOME
CHANCE OF .01 INCH TO .05 INCH OF PRECIP. PREVIOUS POP AND QPF FCST
IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME LOOK FINE. THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NERN PART OF THE FCST AREA
FROM HAPPY TO CHILDRESS TO INCREASE POPS JUST INTO SLIGHT CHANCE
CRITERIA THERE. FORCING SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE MORNING
AND WILL KEEP POST-18Z POPS BELOW 15 PCT.

LONG TERM...
WHEN ITS DRY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD WHO YOU GONNA CALL? DROUGHT BUSTER.
WHILE THAT WON/T EXACTLY BE THE CASE THIS WEEKEND...IT DOES LOOK
LIKE WE WILL GET SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AFTER THE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA WILL BRING IN A LOW CLOUD
DECK...PROBABLY STRATUS...THAT WILL AFFECT MAINLY OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES. THIS MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE TO AID PRECIP CHANCES
FOR SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION BEGINNING SOMETIME
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIME OF THE TROF/PRECIP WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH
SLOWER THAN THE GFS/NAM. FOR NOW I HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE ECMWF
AS IT HAS BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT WITH TIMING...AND IT ISN/T SO
MUCH AS TROF TIMING AS IT IS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROF. THE
ECMWF ALONG WITH THE CMC KEEP THE TROF MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A
NEUTRAL TILT AS IT PASSES THROUGH GIVING US MAXIMUM USE OF THE
ENERGY IT PROVIDES. THE GFS DEGRADES THE TROF TO AN EXTREMELY
ELONGATED TROF WITH A SERIOUS POS TILT. THE PRECIP THE GFS PRODUCES
MOVES THROUGH WHILE THE TROF IS STILL WELL PRONOUNCED TO THE WEST.
THE NAM ONLY GOES THRU TO 00Z SUNDAY BUT APPEARS TO HOLD THE TROF
TOGETHER A BIT BETTER THAN THE GFS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST
WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH AND PROVIDE CAPE OVER 700 J/KG AT TIMES WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE BEING IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS/PERMIAN BASIN. NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED AS THE SOUNDINGS
ARE MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE BUT SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

DESPITE THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE TROF THE FA SHOULD BE CLEAR OF
DECENT PRECIP CHANCES BY MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. DURING THIS TIME A LEE TROF WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE A
DRYLINE IS PROGGED FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO DISAGREE ON THE HANDLING OF IT.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF HINTED AT DRYLINE CONVECTION STARTING
LATE WEDNESDAY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND THEN MOVES EASTWARD...IN
LINE WITH THE CURRENT GFS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWS A
POSSIBLE HINT OF CONVECTION WITH THE DRYLINE BUT IS OTHERWISE DRY.
FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION DUE TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  62  39  70  48 /  10  10   0  10  20
TULIA         41  62  40  70  49 /  20  10   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     43  63  41  70  50 /  10  10   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     43  67  44  71  52 /  10  10   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       47  67  44  71  52 /  10  10   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   46  67  45  71  52 /  10  10   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    45  69  45  71  53 /  10  10   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     46  62  45  73  52 /  20  30  10   0  10
SPUR          48  66  44  73  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     51  68  48  75  54 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.