Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Previous Version | Current Version | All | Graphics & Text | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

908
FXUS64 KLUB 212018
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
318 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK ENERGY THAT HAS BEEN EDGING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PHASED WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH SWINGING
BY WITH MAJORITY OF ENERGY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
AS A MOISTURE PLUME MOVES ACROSS AS WELL. MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN TOO
DISSIMILAR TO SUPPORT MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS LIKELY COVERAGE. ALL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE A QPF MAXIMUM IN THE AREA THOUGH DIFFER ON
LOCATION BETWEEN NORTH...SOUTH...OR OVERHEAD. UNCERTAIN WHICH LEAN
TO TAKE...THOUGH WE DID SLIGHTLY FAVOR WESTERN ZONES FOR THE MORNING
HOURS AND EASTERN FOR THE AFTERNOON WHICH SOLUTIONS SEEM TO AGREE
BETTER ON. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REMAINING FIELDS...WITH
THE BIGGEST PERHAPS TO INDICATE A LITTLE MORE COOLING ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TOMORROW BUT CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH. FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...
WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHWARD WILL SUPPORT LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER MAINLY WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE MID/UPPER CLOUDS
CLEAR...WE COULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAPROCK BY THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
PROVIDE WARM AND DRY LATE OCTOBER WEATHER FOR WEST TEXAS AND WE HAVE
INCREASED FORECAST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TIME PERIODS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY YIELD TO THE
WESTERN TROUGHING LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. OF NOTE...THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE CUTOFF LOW OVER TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. INSTEAD...IT APPEARS DRY WESTERLY FLOW OF
SOME FORM WILL FOLLOW THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH PASSAGE. BEFORE
THEN...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL VISIT THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS DOWNSTREAM OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH. THERE COULD BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR MOIST CONVECTION MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONGEST LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT THE QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
LIKELY RESIDING TO OUR EAST. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
UPWARD AND FAVOR THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
HAVE KEPT THEM AT UNMENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR NOW. A MODEST COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR AND KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  69  50  78  49 /  30  40  20  10   0
TULIA         53  69  51  79  51 /  10  60  20  10   0
PLAINVIEW     53  69  52  78  51 /  20  60  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     55  70  54  78  52 /  30  60  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       55  69  54  79  52 /  20  60  20  10   0
DENVER CITY   58  71  54  78  53 /  40  60  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    58  70  55  79  52 /  40  60  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     56  74  55  82  58 /  10  60  30  10   0
SPUR          56  72  56  81  56 /  10  60  30  10   0
ASPERMONT     58  76  58  82  56 /  10  50  30  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.