Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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532
FXUS64 KLUB 230839
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
339 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
600DM UPPER UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER SRN COLO
TODAY...KEEPING OUR CWA IN MODEST NE FLOW ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL E-SE
FLOW. 3 AM SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THINNING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OVER WTX...AND PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TODAY AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE MIGRATES TO THE SW AROUND THE HIGH. THUS THE
ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE FOR T-STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY
AS YESTERDAY. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO FROM THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE SWWD INTO
SOUTHERN NM...CUTTING ACROSS OUR NW ZONES. ALSO OF SOME INTEREST IS
MODEL PROJECTIONS OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING WEST OR SW
ACROSS OKLA AND POSSIBLY NEARING THE ERN TX PANHANDLE OR RED RIVER VLY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS UNFAVORABLY TIMED TO REACH
OUR CWA HOWEVER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY BE
COOLING/STABILIZING BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH
THOUGH. TEMP-WISE...WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THINKING CLOUD COVER
WILL NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT TEMPS MUCH. TEMPS MAY EDGE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YSTDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND
NEAR 100 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD ALIGN FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT TEMPS AS SFC DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN A LITTLE BIT
MORE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE LONG TERM NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN. IN THE
MEANTIME...HEIGHTS THIS WEEK WILL DECREASE WITH A FLATTENING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN FROM A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...THICKNESS VALUES WILL RISE
WHICH WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE LOOK TO BREAK 100 DEGREES. AT THE
MOMENT...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET
ALTHOUGH WILL COME CLOSE BOTH OF THESE AFTERNOONS.

WE STILL START TO SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AS
THE FLATTENED RIDGE MOVES BACK WEST. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE
OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GENERATING CONVECTION
OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BUT
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL STILL BE WEAK WHICH WILL LIMIT THE ABILITY
OF CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS. STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL TAKE SHAPE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE MAKE A PATTERN CHANGE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
DIP DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEING ABSORBED WITHIN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT TO THE AREA EITHER ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY AND STALL OUT FOR A
FEW DAYS. THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR
SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS NEXT WEEK FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN ANY SHORT
WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR
TIMING ON ANY SHORT WAVES BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE ON TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  65  96  66  99 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         94  69  97  68 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     95  68  96  68 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     96  68  98  69 102 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       98  71  98  70 102 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   96  69  97  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    97  71  98  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS    100  74 103  73 106 /   0  10   0   0  10
SPUR          97  73 100  72 103 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT    101  75 104  75 105 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/01

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