Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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323
FXUS64 KLUB 160526
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1126 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED PAST BOTH TERMINALS AND ATTENTION FOCUS
TO STRATUS MOVING WWD UP THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SWD THROUGH THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. MVFR CIGS LIKELY AT OR JUST AFTER 06Z AT KCDS
POSSIBLY DROPPING AT TIMES INTO IFR CATEGORY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
OF THAT REMAINS LOW. STRATUS INTO KLBB PROBABLY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
09Z OR SO. FINALLY...00Z MODEL RUNS SHOWING BULK OF SNOWFALL FROM
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...REACHING KCDS MID-AFTN. A POSSIBLE QUICK BURST OF SNOW
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT KLBB THIS AFTN AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014/

AVIATION...
SFC COLD FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
AT 5 PM IT STRETCHED ROUGHLY ALONG A VEGA TO CANYON TO MIAMI LINE.
EXPECTED TIME OF ARRIVAL AT KLBB IS 03Z WITH PASSAGE AT KCDS 01Z
OR MAYBE AS LATE AS 02Z. STRATUS TO LAG COLD AIR ARRIVAL BY ABOUT
6 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN AT LOWER END OF MVFR CATEGORY.
LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. ARRIVAL OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA...FOCUSING MORESO ON THE PANHANDLE. STILL A 50/50 SHOT
AT LUBBOCK WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE AT KCDS WHOSE TAF A MENTION
OF -SN HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR SUNDAY AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TODAY/S WARMUP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT...MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS AS OF 315 PM...BLASTS THROUGH
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL BE
BREEZY/GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND SHARPLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS IN THE 20S WILL BE
COMMON BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS PERHAPS HOVERING IN THE LOW 30S.
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO DRASTICALLY INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH SWINGING FROM
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS.

THE APPROACH OF THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP LAYER
SATURATION TO BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS THREAT WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH INCREASING
LIFT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...BECOMING MOST PRONOUNCED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE BRUNT OF THE FORCING IS REALIZED. SATURATION AND
GOOD LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOULD SPELL A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. AREAS EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT SHOULD SEE AROUND THE SAME
AMOUNT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS
DIVES SOUTHEAST. HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FROM BOVINA TO SILVERTON AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM. MAY VERY WELL
NEED TO EXTEND THIS EAST AND SOUTH...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE INITIAL
THREAT FOR THE TIME BEING AND LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MONITOR THE
SYSTEM/S EVOLUTION. LOCATIONS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS COULD ALSO SEE A
LITTLE SLEET MIXED IN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
AS A WARM NOSE ERODES...BUT SHOULD SEE ALL SNOW FALLING RATHER
QUICKLY AFTER PRECIPITATION LEADS TO WET-BULB COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT MOVE MUCH SUNDAY...AND IN FACT MAY ACTUALLY COOL OFF A
TOUCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION BUILDING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF THE
RIDGE...BUT A RAW DAY WILL BE ON TAP WITH WIND CHILLS REMAINING IN
THE TEENS.

LONG TERM...
SNOW SHOULD DECREASE/MOVE OFF PRETTY QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. THERE REMAINS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINGERING SNOW BAND TO PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO
OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...AND POSSIBLY
GARNER A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT RAPIDLY
OVERNIGHT AND IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR VERY COLD TEMPS
MONDAY MORNING AS 1035 MB SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN...BRINGING DRY AIR
AND LIGHT WINDS TO GO ALONG WITH THE CLEAR SKIES. LOW TEMPS SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AREA-WIDE.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENSUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH MINIMAL EFFECT.
WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH AND TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE. THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND MONDAY TO TEMPER
THE WARM UP...BUT IT SHOULD BE GONE BY TUESDAY AS TEMPS WARM INTO
THE 40S TO LOW 50S. LATE IN THE WEEK...UPPER FLOW OVER THE SRN
PLAINS BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM UP FURTHER.
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH LATE WED OR
THURSDAY...LIKELY ONLY BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. A
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST NEXT
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF BRINGS A BACK-DOOR FRONT INTO THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS DEPICTS WARM SRLY FLOW. WE WILL
KEEP TEMPS NEAR ENSEMBLE-BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR NOW WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FRI AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. PRECIP CHANCES COULD IMPROVE LATE SAT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        18  26  13  38  18 /  10  60  10   0   0
TULIA         20  26  15  37  19 /  10  60  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     21  28  18  38  20 /  10  60  20   0   0
LEVELLAND     24  29  18  40  22 /  10  50  30   0   0
LUBBOCK       24  29  20  40  22 /  10  60  30   0   0
DENVER CITY   26  33  21  41  23 /   0  40  20   0   0
BROWNFIELD    25  31  21  41  24 /   0  50  20   0   0
CHILDRESS     25  29  20  39  22 /  10  60  30   0   0
SPUR          26  30  20  40  23 /   0  60  40   0   0
ASPERMONT     29  33  22  41  24 /   0  60  30   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>029.

&&

$$

07

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