Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Next Version | Current Version | All | Graphics & Text | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

807
FXUS64 KLUB 180932
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
332 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY WARMING UNDERNEATH SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. 2 AM READINGS RANGED FROM 35 UP IN DIMMITT TO 45 OUT IN
GUTHRIE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS YESTERDAY/S SNOW
SWATH MELTING AND RETREATING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THERE MAY NOT BE
MUCH SNOW LEFT BY THIS EVENING...OTHER THAN AREAS REMAINING IN
SHADE. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES PROVIDING EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...AND THIS COULD HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING
OUT LIKE LAST NIGHT. STILL...LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S SHOULD
BE THE RULE. ON TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL PICK UP A BIT
MORE AND HELP TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
CYCLONIC NWLY FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WILL GRADUALLY WEAR DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLLAPSE OF A L/W RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A SERIES OF MINOR TROUGHS IN WESTERLY
FLOW BY LATER THIS WEEK. UNTIL THEN THE DEPARTING NWLY FLOW REGIME
WILL STILL SEND A FEW WEAK COLD FRONTS CLOSE TO OUR AREA...THE
FIRST ON WED WITH ANOTHER BY THU. RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE
DAMPENED THE LATTER OF THESE FRONTS MARKEDLY WHEREAS THE LOW RES
ECMWF INDICATES A BIT MORE CHARACTER. NOTE: THE LOCAL INGEST OF
THE 00Z HI RES ECMWF FAILED...SO THE FINER DETAILS CONCERNING THIS
FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CHALLENGES WERE UNAVAILABLE.

WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL BACK SWLY AHEAD OF A S/W TROUGH
PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE DESERT SW. THIS WILL TAP A LAYER OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT WHILE ALSO ENCOURAGING A NWD ADVECTION OF
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THE 00Z LOW RES ECMWF
SCALED BACK THE DEPTH OF THIS WAVE COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS...BUT
REMAINS A BIT SHARPER THAN THE GFS. ALTHOUGH DPROG/DT AMONG THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAS YET TO SETTLE DOWN...THE
THEME IS FOR A PROGRESSIVE NEUTRAL TILT TROUGH IMPACTING WEST TX
FROM FRI NIGHT-SAT COMPLETE WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAINLY OFF
THE CAPROCK IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION. KEPT CHANCE POPS
INTACT ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES AS PWATS AROUND 3/4 INCH IN THIS
PATTERN COULD EASILY BE PUT TO WORK WITH THIS TROUGH. NO PRECIP
PHASE CHALLENGES ARE PRESENT THIS GO-AROUND AS SOUNDINGS POINT TO
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...WITH SVR STORMS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE EAST OF
OUR DOMAIN BY SAT AFTN.

FOLLOWING SATURDAY/S TROUGH...STRONGER CYCLONIC NWLY FLOW LOOKS TO
MAKE A RETURN COMPLETE WITH BREEZY/WARM W-NW SFC WINDS FOR SUNDAY
UNTIL A MODIFIED POLAR FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE SUN/EARLY MON WITH
CHILLY TEMPS FOR THE START OF THANKSGIVING WEEK. UNTIL THIS MORE
SUBSTANTIAL FROPA...MAX TEMPS WERE TRENDED UP MOST DAYS TO BETTER
FIT THE VERY MILD ECM AND MEX NUMBERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  23  51  26  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         46  25  53  26  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     49  24  53  26  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     49  25  54  29  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       51  28  53  28  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   50  23  56  30  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    50  26  55  29  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     50  29  54  29  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          50  30  55  30  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     53  32  57  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.