Area Forecast Discussion
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677
FXUS64 KLUB 241741
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A FEW CIRRUS
FILTERING IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OR BELOW FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UNEVENTFUL PATTERN TO CONTINUE UNDER WEAK AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.
RETROGRADING LOW NEAR BAJA CA WITH AN ASSOCIATED SUBTROPICAL JET
HAS BEEN DIRECTING A THICK PLUME OF CIRRUS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS
ALL NIGHT...BUT CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW CLOSER TO HOME SHOULD KEEP
THESE CLOUDS FROM DISRUPTING OUR SUNNY SKIES TODAY. THIS SUBSIDENT
FLOW WILL SERVE TO BOOST HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES...HOWEVER MAX
TEMPS WERE NUDGED TOWARD THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR MOST AREAS ON
THE CAPROCK GIVEN LINGERING SNOW COVER AND MORE TOPSOIL MOISTURE
COMPARED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS. ALSO RAISED MIN TEMPS A BIT
TONIGHT AREA WIDE GIVEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY W-NW WINDS
EXPECTED WHICH HAVE THUS FAR KEPT TEMPS FROM CRATERING OVER THE
THICKEST OF SNOW PACK IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S BY MONDAY THANKS TO THE RIDGE
AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND. THE RIDGE WILL
START TO SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSE LOW OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST IS PICKED UP BY THE JET STREAM AND MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE
REGION AND A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
START TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BUT WILL BE PUSHED
EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK DRYLINE DEVELOPS AS THE REMNANTS
OF THE CLOSED LOW SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AS THE REMNANTS MOVE OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A COLD FRONT
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE INITIAL
FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A SECOND CLOSED DEVELOPS OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AND HELP TO DRAW SOME OF THE MOISTURE
OVER THE FRONT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. MODELS STILL HAVE
DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION BUT WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS
FORECAST CYCLE ONCE AGAIN. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES EXIST JUST PAST THE
END OF THE FORECAST WHERE THE GFS BRINGS IN ANOTHER BLAST OF
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER. 850HPA TEMPS
IN THE GFS DROP TO AROUND -10 C WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER TO 0C
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND
SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  24  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  26  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  27  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     49  25  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       49  27  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   51  26  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    52  25  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     56  36  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          54  31  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     57  33  66  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31

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